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You are here: Home / Foreign Affairs / Diplomacy Is Syria’s Business, Yo

Diplomacy Is Syria’s Business, Yo

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Looks like Bashar al-Assad is ready to deal.

The Syrian government has accepted U.N. envoy Kofi Annan’s plan to forge peace and end violence, Annan’s spokesman said on Tuesday.

Annan has offered Syria a six-point plan – supported by the U.N. Security Council – as a way to halt the violence.

The proposal seeks to stop the violence and the killing, give access to humanitarian agencies, release detainees, and start an inclusive political dialogue to address the legitimate aspirations and concerns of the Syrian people, according to a U.N. statement.

Hey look.  Smart power and stuff.  It’s like it works or something, and that there are ugly foreign policy problems that can be solved without blowing things up.  Can’t wait until the usual suspects tell us how awesome the United Nations suddenly is, and that President Whatshisface had nothing to do with this.

Reader Interactions

46Comments

  1. 1.

    Steve

    I sorta think this is a problem that was solved primarily through violence, albeit not our violence. The Syrian rebels didn’t exactly tack a list of demands on the door.

  4. 4.

    Handy

    Better than the Rmoney plan to just let them bottom out and buy up the remaining assets and sell them. :)

  5. 5.

    MattF

    I’d hold off on any congratulations until the facts on the ground bear a resemblance to what’s specified in the plan. Assad has agreed to lots of things, none of which have actually happened.

  6. 6.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @MattF: Step 1 is getting a plan. It is worth some congratulations; you have to celebrate some of the little victories or els you may never get to celebrate anything. Steps 2-? are carrying out the plan. Who knows how that will turn out.

  8. 8.

    Schlemizel

    No, the UN can never be awesome, never, ever, ever. This is obviously a failure as is anything the UN has ever done or ever will do. Obama’s failure to use massive military force is just evidence of is complete inadequacy as President and having the UN bail him out signals the rest of the world how weak the US is.

    Cheeses, this isn’t hard – any idea if there is a welfare slot open at redface.com or one of those “think” tanks? This is so simple I could knock shit like this out in a couple of hours and spend my free time enjoying those Koch checks.

  9. 9.

    Egg Berry

    This is so simple I could knock shit like this out in a couple of hours and spend my free time enjoying those Koch checks.

    Ahh, the McArdle employment plan.

  10. 10.

    some guy

    so armed resistance to repressive authoritarianism, led by the Muslim Brotherhood is not only OK but supported by the liberal left? awesome news.

    someone alert the Palestinians, blowing up car bombs, assassinating regime supporters and attacking government security installations is now on the OK List. finally.

  11. 11.

    Chyron HR

    @some guy:

    Second amendment solutions! Next time we’re coming armed! Don’t retreat, RELOAD, RELOAD, REEEEELOAAAAAD!

    So armed response to mild corporate reforms is not only OK but supported by the radical right? Awesome news.

  12. 12.

    Keith G

    @some guy: Please remember that we get the option of choosing legit freedom fighters from those who are not.

    Now that Bashir has spent a year killing off opposition and cowering the populace, he might (wrongly)intuit that he can return to just old school police-state oppression to get his needs met. The good news is that for now the artillery might be silenced, but I doubt that the arrests , torture and targeted assassinations will cease.

  14. 14.

    some guy

    so the Muslim Brotherhood is a legitimate resistance force in Syria but the Muslim Brotherhood is NOT a legitimate resistance force in Palestine.

    sure, that makes sense.

  15. 15.

    danielx

    Cue The Usual Suspects howling in chorus: “Kofi Annan is a commie terrorist sympathizing wimp and this will never ever work.”

    I have to admit a certain amount of skepticism. Al-Assad’s daddy Hafez was a murdering tyrant and Bashar is definitely a chip off the old block, and equally indifferent to international opinion. But if the shooting stops at least for a little while, it will be an improvement.

  16. 16.

    Citizen_X

    @some guy: What, the Muslim Brotherhood “leads” all resistance in Syria and Palestine? Where did you get that?
    __
    How about the New Black Panther Party? Are you sure they aren’t leading everything over ther too?

  17. 17.

    valdemar

    The British government just threatened to take away Mrs Assad’s access to ALL the shops in London. That probably counted for more with the regime than any number of dead civilians. But, yes, good for the UN.

  18. 18.

    danielx

    @Schlemizel:

    It’s true, I thought the same thing last night while writing about how we must bring dynamic democracy to Kenya. I could fill a cushy gig writing horseshit at the Heritage Foundation or AEI with ease, except that I don’t think I could tolerate the constant state of nausea, developing ulcers, or vertigo caused by constant cognitive dissonance. Are there drugs available that would help?

  19. 19.

    some guy

    @danielx:

    who the fuck do you think is leading it? Why did all the secular leaders recently quit the Syrian National Council.

    catch a clue, the resistance is led by the Brotherhood. I know this may be hard for you to understand, but the armed resistance didn’t just spring up out of thin air.

  20. 20.

    LGRooney

    @danielx: Skepticism is healthy, in general. It’s when visceral skepticism becomes an assumption of truth that is a problem.

    I generally think this can be chalked up to the Russians. While the Russians stymied any efforts at UN resolutions against Syria, because they want friends too, their recent overtures to Assad to stop being such an Ass-ad are paying off. The Russians are very effective negotiators behind closed doors with weaker partners. Russia wants a port of call in the Med, and they want someone to whom they can sell their weapons. So, their strong-arming of Assad while probably guaranteeing him support in his position could secure both of their desires.

    Such is the chitter-chatter I hear.

  25. 25.

    lacp

    It’s worth the effort to try for a peaceful solution, though I have my doubts – the religious division is going to be awfully hard to bridge.

  26. 26.

    Schlemizel

    @LGRooney:

    While drugs would be nice I think you just have to be able to compartmentalize your ‘soul’. If the money was good you could sort of drown out that bleating annoyance calling for human decency with good wine, fancy vacations, pink salt, high-end kitchen appliances.

    I was an amateur magician/mentalist as a kid & after seeing a faith healer work knew I could do that job. Its not hard, I even practice & my religious upbringing really made it simple. Seeing the money I left on the table doing an honest job instead of following Peter Popoff, Jack Coe, Oral Roberts, Benny Hinn, – Jesus this list goes on for ever – some days I wish my mom had not instilled a sense of decency in my. Thats a hell of a lot of money.

  27. 27.

    LGRooney

    @Schlemizel: Yes, my father was a VP for Pat Robertson at one point and the money was good. Alas, my parents too instilled in me a sense of decency and I would not follow in his footsteps – only taking it farther since he left because CBN was definitely not interested in doing god’s work. Lots of money politicizing rubes for the benefit of the wealthy and I could have become caterer to myself in a very short period.

    My conscience sucks!

  28. 28.

    El Cid

    There is a problem that Assad has been repeatedly presenting reform / accord initiatives which he then ignores.

  30. 30.

    El Cid

    A good general review essay in Middle East Research & Information Project (MERIP)’s Spring issue:

    The Arab uprisings of 2011-2012 have deepened the divisions of the new Arab cold war, including along Sunni-Shi‘i lines. And like the earlier cold war, the contemporary one features competing approaches to intervention in the affairs of other Arab states. But the current version, while displaying sectarian and power dimensions, also includes new dynamics emerging from the Arab uprisings themselves. Today’s Arab cold war features not only state-state rivalries, but also state-society conflicts characterized by reemergent Arab identity politics, a public sphere expanded by a revolution in media and communication, a rise of Islamist social and political movements challenging incumbent regimes and, finally, new norms and popular expectations regarding participation in public life…
    __
    …While the Libyan revolution led to civil war and outside intervention, including an extended NATO campaign of air strikes against the Qaddafi regime, the Syrian uprising threatens to take an even more dangerous path, both for the Syrian people and the region as a whole. The Syrian crisis began as part of the Arab uprisings, with civilian activists marching for greater freedom and openness in Syria. It was only after the regime responded with violence in Dir‘a that protest movements sprang up across the country. These movements, too, began peacefully but were met with force. Eventually, calls for reform became calls for regime change. The Arab League plan asking President Bashar al-Asad to cede power to a deputy was crafted under Qatar’s temporary (rotating) leadership of the Arab League council, with strong GCC support. Indeed, the idea of Arab League monitors in Syria had a similar genesis, and the GCC states were accordingly the first to withdraw their monitors in early February (followed closely by GCC aspirant Jordan) when they deemed the mission a failure.
    __
    The Syrian imbroglio bears all the hallmarks of the new Arab cold war, including domestic struggle between a regime and opposition each with outside patrons, attempts to fan the flames of sectarianism, and dueling narratives regarding who is really attacking whom. Like the earlier Arab cold war, the conflict is awash in propaganda and disinformation.
    __
    Even honest media attempts to understand the Syrian revolution too often distill the conflict to a ruthless regime versus the Syrian National Council (a collection of opposition groups in exile) and the Free Syria Army (a relatively small set of army deserters who have now started an armed campaign against the regime). What is missing, more often than not, is the overwhelming majority of Syrians working at the grassroots against the regime and linked to neither the Council nor the Army…
    __
    …A plunge into full-scale civil war would be all too reminiscent of Lebanon (from 1975 to 1990) or Iraq (after the 2003 US invasion). A negotiated diplomatic solution stipulating some level of regime change and a more inclusive government — one that ousts Asad but manages to allay the fears of ‘Alawis, Christians and Muslims alike — seems essential to avoid a similar endemic conflict in Syria.
    __
    …While much will depend on the efforts of Syrians themselves, today, as in the earlier cold war period, much will also depend on the cooperation -— or rivalry—- associated with external Arab, regional and global powers. __
    Indeed, if Syria is allowed to tip into the abyss, there could be a disaster comparable to Lebanon’s or Iraq’s, as the struggle for Syria once again widens the fissures of an Arab cold war, the dynamics of which may doom the hopes of the Syrian people.

    I’m sure the author only mistakenly mentioned Iraq as a disaster, since everything was fixed by the SURGE, hallowed be its name.
    __
    The important bit is that Syria is a battleground for a lot of nearby states whose interests are quite clear in terms of decades of foreign policy, and those align with the interests of the Syrian populations only when this luckily happens.

  31. 31.

    El Cid

    @Davis X. Machina: Syria has oil. A good bit of it.

    Syria is the only significant crude oil producing country in the Eastern Mediterranean region, which includes Jordan, Lebanon, Israel, the West Bank, and Gaza. According to the Oil and Gas Journal, Syria had 2,500,000,000 barrels (400,000,000 m3) of petroleum reserves as of January 1, 2010.[18] Syria’s known oil reserves are mainly in the eastern part of the country in the Deir ez-Zor Governorate near its border with Iraq and along the Euphrates River; a number of smaller fields are located in the center of the country.[13] In 2010, Syria produced around 385,000 barrels (61,200 m3) per day of crude oil.[16][17] Oil production has stabilized after falling for a number of years, and is poised to turn around as new fields come on line.

  33. 33.

    kindness

    Me thinks the Syrian strong guy is playing the UN off as chumps one more time. Let’s review, yesterday Syrian troops invaded and attacked outposts in Lebanon chasing after people. Yesterday the Syrian Army attacked crowds in one Syrian city with rockets fired from a helicopter.

    Me thinks this guy is staying dug in till some one kills him, and he doesn’t care if the whole country gets burned down around him. Shades of Libya….

  34. 34.

    El Cid

    @Davis X. Machina: Well, you didn’t say if only Syria had god-awfully large oil reserves. If so, that already would have been a factor.
    __
    That said, it’s not like its production of oil is such that it fails to attract the attention of regional rivals. It’s real, even if it isn’t gigantic. It’s also extremely important to the regime itself, as it’s a great way of funding themselves.
    __
    The industries owned and run by the military in Egypt, for example, aren’t world-historic in their significance, but they’re a main reason for the military keeping its vice-like grip on power there — because though the money isn’t at internationally dominant levels, it’s what gives money to the military-based elites, who are also among the nation’s most prominent economic elites, due to those same industries.

  36. 36.

    burnspbesq

    @some guy:

    catch a clue, the resistance is led by the Brotherhood.

    When you can substantiate that, I’ll think about taking you seriously. “Catch a clue” is not evidence; it’s a tell that you have no evidence.

  37. 37.

    AA+ Bonds

    Hey look. Smart power and stuff. It’s like it works or something

    Perhaps we should wait until this plan works or something

  39. 39.

    Brachiator

    Can’t wait until the usual suspects tell us how awesome the United Nations suddenly is, and that President Whatshisface had nothing to do with this.

    Remember that Obama only does what any president would do, although somehow Republican presidents would do it better.

    .

  40. 40.

    El Cid

    @Davis X. Machina: No, but then, few situations are. Take for example the US-created toady regimes in Congo / Zaire: for a while just funding army leaders was good enough, along with continuing Belgian / Western strength in short term force projection and controlling mining interests. For a short time, the US sent over Cuban exiles as fighter pilots. And the US had control over the mostly uncontrolled nation for generations, without the sort of direct military intervention which went on in Libya.

    If someone has a particular job in mind, a variety of tools may work.

    That doesn’t mean that just because someone thinks there might be a particular job in mind on the US’ part that there therefore is, but the lack of use of one or another tool wouldn’t be the exclusive evidence.

    And given that the Libyan situation is once again appearing to have been destabilizing North Africa, perhaps toward yet another series of likely long-raging but mostly smaller arm civil wars again, it’s worth paying very close attention to.

  41. 41.

    some guy

    @burnspbesq:

    The Friends of Syria conference Tunisia, which included representatives from 60 Arab and Western states, acknowledged on Friday the Muslim Brotherhood-led Syrian National Council as the revolution’s representative abroad. With the reported Qatari funding of the SNC along with their organization and prominent presence on the world arena, many view them as playing a prominent part in Syrian politics for at least the duration of the revolution.

    http://www.egyptindependent.com/node/687136

  42. 42.

    srv

    What people haven’t figured out is that once the new norm in post-spring governments establish themselves, the US will be spending generations covertly destabilizing them. We have a lot of experience with this on other continents.

  43. 43.

    some guy

    @burnspbesq:

    Syria’s Muslim Brotherhood group on Sunday said it was committed to a civil state that respects human rights and sees the participation of all, in a bid to dispel fears that the group has plans to take over power in Syria after the collapse of President Bashar al-Assad’s regime.

    The Brotherhood leader, Ali Sadreddine Bayanouni, told a press conference in Istanbul that his group was committed to “a civil and democratic republican state with a parliamentary system, in which all the people are treated equal regardless of faith or ethnicity.”

    http://english.alarabiya.net/articles/2012/03/25/203114.html

    do you have any clue, Burnsie, what the Free Syrian Army names its Brigades? just because the American media downplay the centrality of the MB to the armed resistance, or the fact that the SNC is dominated by the Brotherhood, doesn’t mean those of us who are watching are as ignorant as you are.

  44. 44.

    some guy

    Moawiyah Bin Abi Sufian Brigade
    Saad Bin Moaz battalion
    Omar Ibn al-Khattab battalion
    Abu Obeidah bin Al-Jarrah battalion

    clearly, the Free Syrian Army has NOTHING to do with the Brothers. these are committed secularists, their names says it all, right there, committed to liberte, egalite, and fraternite.

    chump

  45. 45.

    some guy

    BEIRUT (AP) — The gunmen in eastern Syria, wielding grenade launchers and assault rifles, announced on the Internet they were forming the “God is Great” Brigade and joining the country’s rebellion. They swore allegiance to the Free Syrian Army and vowed to topple President Bashar Assad.

    But unlike many other rebel bands, they wrapped their proclamation in hard-line Islamic language, declaring their fight to be a “jihad,” or holy war, and urging others to do the same.

    “To our fellow revolutionaries, don’t be afraid to declare jihad in the path of God. Seek victory from the One God. God is the greatest champion,” the brigade’s spokesman said in the January video. “Instead of fighting for a faction, fight for your nation, and instead of fighting for your nation, fight for God.”

    …

    The council is “a liberal front for the Muslim Brotherhood,” said Kamal Labwani, a veteran secular dissident, who broke away. He said the Brotherhood was trying to build allegiances on the ground in Syria.

    “One day we will wake up to find an armed militia … controlling the country through their weapons,” Labwani said.

  46. 46.

    Herbal Infusion Bagger

    Me thinks the Syrian strong guy is playing the UN off as chumps one more time.

    Word. My bet is he’s trying to minimize the chance of any substantive aid to the Syrian National Council coming out of the next Friends of Syria summit in April.

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