It does not take a PhD in foreign affairs to understand that Iran’s oil would be harder to get if we blow up their infrastructure. Maybe they will have a hard time pumping through pipes that are cratered and on fire, and maybe they will choose not to. Who could have guessed?
History lesson! The WWII Axis powers seemed to attack almost everyone at once because a dominant regional empire needs access to reliable petroleum reserves, which neither Germany nor Japan had. Securing supply lines from south Asia to Japan and from the middle east to Germany meant subduing an awful lot of land and sea, but it was either that or give up on the idea of total self-determination. At the time oil was not so much of a global commodity, and so the geography of production mattered quite a bit. So, blood, bombs, mass death and the rest.
The funny economics of peak phase oil production puts people in the position of needing almost exactly as much oil as can be feasibly pumped out of the ground. Iran’s oil is precious only because everyone’s oil is precious. We would face the same disaster if Venezuela or Alaska or the British North Sea suddenly went dark. Inflexible supply falls short of inflexible demand. What next? First the price adjusts until people re-evaluate how inflexible their demand really is. Ask yourself, for example, when is the last time you saw a Hummer dealership. Eventually, though, the basic idea of oil as a globally traded commodity will make less sense when the price reaches some arbitrarily silly number. At that point the geography of oil once again matters quite a lot. The brain trust who thought up the Iraq war more or less admitted that they had this phase of history in mind while they drew their invasion plans in crayon and finger paint (1. kill Saddam. 2. Iraqis welcome Ahmad Chalabi as their new permanent leader. 3. Profit!!).
What to do? We could try divesting ourselves now. You do not work out alternatives after oil runs down; when scarcity becomes an inescapable reality basic survival boils down to an existential struggle, blood, bombs, mass death and the rest, ending in small numbers of people making rudimentary tools to pry food out of cans with faded labels that they can’t read. I work in research. Research needs a lot of spare resources and the time to get it right. When surpluses are gone you will not see a calm transition to some hypothetical alternative, you will see chaos. We need a little lead time to try out the alternatives and work out their relative strengths and weaknesses, while oil still keeps the lights on. Personally I would suggest more urgency. A little time might be all we’ve got.
Martin
You’d think these guys would remember Saddam setting all of Kuwaits wells on fire. But no. Unlike that time, apparently we now have an army of magical unicorns to fix everything as soon as it breaks.
redshirt
Don’t worry. When the world economy collapses due to oil becoming extremely expensive, it will all be the LIBERAL’s fault. Rest assured!
Tony J
Don’t worry so much. Once the oil achieves sentience it will inevitably choose Freedom! and move itself further west towards the people who chant “Drill Baby Drill” the loudest.
What? It could happen. Why do you have to be all ‘sciency’ about this stuff?
Chris
Actually, at the moment, the US has an oil glut. It’s particular to the landlocked states though. This is why US oil (NYMEX for instance, currently just over $100) is twenty bucks a barrel cheaper than world oil (Brent crude, currently just over $120).
This is also holding down the final price of gasoline, especially in the center of the country where it’s about $3.60/gallon. (In fact, I paid $3.559/gal at Costco last Thursday.)
And, this is why certain groups are so gung-ho on the Keystone Pipeline. If they could sell US crude into the world market, they would be getting $120 instead of $100: an instant 20% increase in prices. Of course, once they’re selling it for $120, the input costs at the refiners go up, and so does the end-user price for gasoline (more in the central states than at the periphery, but everyone will see an increase).
In short: Keystone = higher (not lower) gasoline prices.
Brachiator
This is pretty much how we’ve always done it. Human behavior is tough to change.
For example, there was a great article in a recent edition of The Economist, about how the use of coal is increasing dramatically in India and China: Old king coal: Asian growth will remain fuelled by coal, which is worrying for the planet.
The continued use of oil, along with shifts to coal, may be accelerating problems. Add to this issues with a retreat from nuclear, and you just add to the dilemma.
But one question is how do you come up with solutions that do not kill economies and lower standards of living?
canuckistani
Props for a subtle Local Hero ref there.
Clime Acts
I agree completely. Which is why I do not understand why Obama and the Dems are not screaming from the rooftops about this, rather than acting as though there is no real, immediate danger. Where’s the manhattan project to replace fossil fuels with renewables?
Which is why I tend to think oil is nowhere near peaking and we’ve been lied to about that for decades, and/or that it has already peaked, the earth is already in an irreversible warming feedback loop, and the end is near.
Either way, I don’t trust the keepers of the status quo.
Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony
@Clime Acts:
Laying dismembered at the feet of the House and Senate GOP.
Clime Acts
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
Funny, that. I don’t remember President Obama talking in dire tones about a Manhattan-style project, nor the urgent, dire need for one; either in terms of running out of oil or that of global warming.
Repubs block shit; Obama says “meh, bipartisanship.”
Steve in DC
Renewables have all had issues supplying enough base grid power. Wind, solar, et all are not fully viable now.
I’d prefer to see a move towards nuclear and then a pivot to renewables. But nuclear is so verboten in green circles it won’t happen. So, bring on the coal, keep the base grid power up, and hope the greens crack before it’s too late.
The new GE and Canadian reactors are very safe and much better than the old ones as well.
Hamlet
I am hugely comforted by the existence of the Chevy Volt. It doesn’t make economic sense with gas price where they are at, but it caps the damage oil prices can do to the economy.
If gas soars in price, people can buy a Volt, and their commute can be more or less gasoline free. A Volt is expensive, but as a worst case scenario not so bad.
Steve in DC
@Hamlet
The volt’s still a rip off at the price it is. I use a motorcylce though, crazy good millage.
Maude
@Sister Machine Gun of Quiet Harmony:
WIN
Judas Escargot, Your Postmodern Neighbor
The situation is even worse than this: We need the energy that currently only fossil fuels can provide to pull us over the “hump” to the next energy regime. Or, more plainly: We don’t have enough solar panels and windmills to power the factories needed to make all the solar panels and windmills needed to replace fossil fuels. We need to use oil, coal, and probably nuclear for that. And we need to use it while it’s still cheap enough to get us over that hump.
__
Energy regimes change over time. In the history of this country alone, we’ve gone from wood to coal to oil as the basis of our economy. But what makes this particular phase-change special is that this is the first time we have to change energy regimes on purpose, with long-term plans stretching across decades.
__
For all previous transitions, people could just bumble through history as the economy modified itself. This approach just isn’t an option this time around, because failure to prepare in time leads to systemic collapse. This is new.
Brachiator
@Hamlet:
Where’s the electricity coming from?
Downpuppy
Was the North Sea a random pick? For now, the Elgin leak is fairly minor, but there’s always the chance they’ll have to do some kind of safety shutdown once the cause is evident.
Downpuppy
@Brachiator: Also the plastic & steel. Electric cars may be nice as a niche, but a billion of them? Not sustainable.
amok92
How did I miss the announcement that James Kunstler blogs at BJ now :)
redshirt
@Clime Acts: I’m sure President Romney will be more supportive of your positions.
Anoniminous
I work in research* too. Part of the results of that research is the Five Stages of Denial:
1. Ignore the evidence
2. Deny the evidence
3. Conclude and claim the evidence doesn’t apply to them
4. Conclude and claim evidence will not affect them to the same degree
5. Emotive Reaction – astonishment through depression to rage – when what the evidence said would happen, does happen
Couple with sociopathic behavior of the major firms and entities in the Energy Sector …
Couple with Decision Makers outside, but tied to, the major firms and entities in the Energy Sector …
Couple with Decision Makers who support the system(s) that put them into the position to be Decision Makers because it put the Best and Brightest (them) in position to be Decision Makers …
And bugger all will happen to change the trajectory we’re riding.
*(I have a Masters Degree. In SCIENCE! :-)
Calouste
Which is also why the US developed a dependency on foreign oil. On purpose. Because the top brass in the military learned the lessons from WWII and wanted to make sure that in WWIII there was enough oil available within the US to fight that war and that they wouldn’t be dependent on oil shipped from places where it could be attacked (as the Americans quite succesfully did with the oil transports from the Dutch East-Indies to Japan). The strategic goal is that there is enough production capacity in the US to fight a war, but consumer consumption is mostly provided for by foreign oil so that the US reserves don’t deplete too quickly. Same reason why the military is investing in alternative fuel technology.
Clime Acts
@redshirt:
Well I don’t know, maybe you’re right.
Better the enemy you know than the one who pretends to be on your side and isn’t. But maybe you’re ok with that.
RalfW
I don’t think it will go anywhere before November, but I’m appreciating that Obama is talking about cutting $4Bn in oil subsidies and diverting some of that to alt. energy R&D (and scaling up, I hope).
I did just hear on the radio last week that nat. gas prices are plummeting in the US (thanks to an unnaturally warm winter + fracking, fracking, fracking). So in the short term, until low prices cause too much demand and thus nat. gas supply problems and high prices, gas-generated electricity will be cheapish.
So Go! Chevy Volt, go!
RalfW
@Brachiator:
Well, that is premised on the notion that accelerating global warming will not cause lower standards of living. Or kill economies (or millions of people).
Arclite
With the rise in the price of oil, it’s not just the transportation sector that takes a hit (I see talk about Chevy Volts and motorcycles). The price of almost every single thing you buy goes up when oil goes up: food, consumer goods, plastics, meds, etc. etc. Everything is either made by oil, shipped by oil, harvested or mined by oil, or produced using oil. Yes, transport is hit the most, but we become a lot poorer when oil becomes scarce and expensive. Essentially we become a country like Argentina when the price of oil doubles.
Some Loser
@Clime Acts:
Why don’t we hear you speaking about these problems publicly? They’re urgent, right? Get on a public platform and make people interested in this topic. Don’t sit here and complain; do something about this. Start an interest group, make it significant (like the NRA and AARP), and force politicians to do something about this incredibly important issue. Obama is not addressing the issue as fast as you like? I bet he would if his re-election chances depended on doing something about these issues.
The first step is finding like minded people and organizing them into a group. Typically this will be a top-down structure so you can focus on the goal beforehand (investing in alternative energy). This is probably the hardest part. Liberals and lefties generally love this top, so collecting enough bodies should be doable. Once you got enough people, you can start putting pressure on politicians. Spend a few years hitting local and state elections. You want your organization to be a significant voting bloc, not only voting en mass but also voting consistently. Make sure politicians know that your group is responsible for his/her election, and if s/he doesn’t advance your issues, then they will have a hard time getting reelections.
From there, just do what the AARP does. At the very least, politicians will lip service to you, but it won’t be uncommon for them to actually do shit for you.
(Though, take what I’ve said with a grain of salt. I never created an organization that influence politics on the level of the NRA or AARP, but this should be the basic stuff. It’ll be easier said then done. But you have passion, kid! You’ll do fine!!)
El Cid
By the way, Daddy Bush just bought one of the grandkids a Chevy Volt. Which means Al Gore got to him with his soshullist enviro-fascist infection ray!
mclaren
That’s exactly what Shithole America is going to do — nothing, until the oil runs out and there’s mass panic and starvation and chaos.
The United Snakes of Amnesia is a country full of short-sighted gullible fools, easily distracted, effortlessly duped, ignorant, concerned only with the next five minutes, and obsessed with trivia like “Dancing with the stars” and who will win the fucking Stuporbowl.
Party while you can. When the karma comes down on this benighted country, it’s gonna be a bitch.
Lurker
I’m bicycling to work right now. I guess the difference between today and thirty years from now is that my bicycling right now is a choice and not a necessity.