One of the many reasons that I quit the local blog I used to work for is that people would yell at me for saying Obama had New York State wrapped up in the 2008 general; they’d say “nothing’s wrapped up if people don’t put up lawn signs and make calls!” I’m all for getting out the vote, but I that’s bullshit, Obama polled 15-30 points ahead the entire time and there was no way he was going to lose.
More generally, I hate “WE CAN’T BE OVERCONFIDENT!” In this presidential race, particularly, Romney’s ability to raise money is likely tied to the perception that he has a chance to win. So we need to push the line that he’s an out-of-touch, dog-torturing freak with no chance to win. So fuck this:
Mitt Romney is poised to have the best months ever in his political career. If he plays his hand well, and it’s a fairly easy hand to play, he will gain tremendous momentum in the race and gain the upper hand in the perception of who will win— which is often, pollsters will tell you, a leading indicator of who will win.