I think we’re going to be reading a lot like this:
If Barack Obama’s first presidential campaign was part cultural phenomenon, part national movement, his second may look a bit more modest — like a series of well-run Senate campaigns. Facing the reality of running as a bruised incumbent in a politically divided country, Obama’s advisors say they are plotting a strategy that doesn’t depend on a wave of support to lift the president’s chances across the country. And it won’t hinge on a single theme based on ideas such as “hope” and “change” that defined the campaign and captured the zeitgeist in 2008. “We are running a series of state-specific campaigns even more so than we did in 2008, where each state’s volunteers help drive what is important for them to work on in that state,” campaign manager Jim Messina said.
I think this piece fits fairly well with my experience here so far, with one exception. Since 2008, I’ve noticed this media narrative form around Obama and the Obama 2008 campaign where any success they had was due to celebrity or a compelling narrative or some fortuitous aligning of the stars. While it’s true that there was an enormous amount of national energy around that campaign in 2008, they were also successful because they worked really hard. They went block-by-block and state by state in 2008, too. The generous interpretation of the aligning of the stars narrative is that’s a good story, and more fun to read (and write) than talking about house parties and compiling volunteer lists and reaching out to older long-term Democratic Party people and bringing them in, but that national narrative story, while great fun to read, misses all the hard work that went into that magical aligning of the stars in 2008.
I had an organizing event at my house last Tuesday night, the attendees were a very specific group, so I’ll give you my theory on how that fits with the magical aligning of the stars narrative and my reality:
These are local Democrats who fill some “official” Party role: poll workers, precinct captains, delegates and Democrats who are also elected within their respective unions as representatives of union members. Tuesday we had both UAW and Steelworkers. Here, they’d be attending as local Democrats, but the union people are really valuable because they talk to other union members.
They speak in practical terms about “a ticket”, and they start at the top of the ticket, so the Obama organizer told them what the campaign plans are nationally, in Ohio and in this county. This is important because these are not the people who do “on the ground” grunt work (they don’t canvass or make phone calls anymore) but they are the people local Democrats and allies will approach for information if they’re interested in getting involved at that level. This is a conservative county so a prospective volunteer or supporter would sort of sidle up to these people and ask them what’s going on with the Obama campaign.
Ordinarily, I expect these things to open with what I have described here as an “airing of grievances” and I’m not being sarcastic or flippant when I say that, nor am I even commenting on whether that’s a worthwhile or valuable thing to do. It just is. That’s exactly what we do. We go around the room and air grievances. To be clear, these are usually complaints about a political approach, not policy. In any event, that didn’t happen Tuesday. Instead the group went right to questioning the Obama organizer on specifics of the presidential campaign and then we completely ignored the organizer and discussed the rest of the Democratic ticket: Sherrod Brown (US Senate) and Angela Zimmann (US House) and John Vanover (OH legislature).
My impression was that it went very well. They’re very committed to re-electing this President. Now, these are partisan Democrats, and they’re active in Party politics. They were always going to support the Democratic incumbent, but they can sit at home and if asked, “support the Democrat” and then show up sometime after Labor Day and bitch about yard signs, and they’re not doing that. They’re in now. I expected to have to defend him and instead they were more positive on his job performance than I am.
So. On balance. If there’s less aligning with the zeitgeist or magic this time around (and as I said I think that’s a fair and true statement) there will be the same level of block-by-block hard work that there was in 2008, and, in my opinion anyway, more support from the Party regulars here than there was in 2008. The truth is they didn’t know Obama in 2008, and they were wary of him. Obama is a lot of different things to national media. There are all kinds of (often conflicting) theories about this President, but to the people who came to my house last Tuesday he’s now the familiar Democratic incumbent instead of the came-out-of-nowhere candidate who beat the Democrat they all “knew” and were comfortable with. That’s different, and it’s probably better, than in 2008.
Schlemizel
Gotta love the airing of grievances! It does seem to happen every time & can lead to some heated exchanges. We did it last time & I expect it next time. The only choice is to elect more, and then better, Democrats and we are unified on that issue. We can quibble about the details after we get the country back on track.
Linda Featheringill
Ahhh, the REAL inner workings of a political campaign.
It’s my unscientific observation that the Obama Team is really quite organized. Good job! Now to those other contests . . .
Anya
Kay, where you at the rally yesterday? What did you think about the theme and how was the coverage in the local media? I hope they did not fixate on trivialities, like their brethren in the national media?
Jay C
And I’ll rate your diary at Three Stars, Kay: one each for these points:
1) General thanks for posting this: I can think of few things more heartening for Democrats/Obama partisans than a positive report like this from “inside” a local campaign. More so, at least, than the “national” reportage.
2) One really has to wonder what the equivalent experience at a Republican meeting in the area might be like. One educated guess: “airing of grievances” might have, this time around, somewhat of a larger role.
3) How do we get narratives like this into the “mainstream” media? Or is that just a lost cause?
c u n d gulag
I was heavily involved in Obama’s campaign in NC in 2008 – specifically around the Fayetteville area, home of Ft. Bragg.
We worked the local’s (it’s not easy to get people in a military town to listen to Liberals), other cities and towns had their own local groups, working theirs.
Focus on winning your area! Let the regional and national campaign people worry about what they need to handle.
This was much more of a grassroots approach than I’d seen in other Presidential campaigns.
And Obama not only won NC, but the Congressional district that Ft. Bragg is located in. A Democrat hadn’t won Cumberland county in a long time. And Larry Kissell won on his coat-tails.
I think Obama’s folks know what to do, and how to do it.
I can hardly wait to see what Romney’s folks here in upstate NY look like.
My money’s on animatronic Barbie and Ken dolls.
Hill Dweller
White guilt! Celebrity! Any explanation other than the obvious: a brilliant organization/ground game coupled with an effective social media strategy, hard work and a charismatic candidate.
I really do despise the majority of the national press.
General Stuck
Nice stream of consciousness post, Kay. And it is good to see everyone, including Obama, not taking this election for granted. In even a moderately healthy political world, there would be no doubt of the outcome, and double so with a clown like Romney to run against, along with the rest of the crazies in the GOP, trying to turn the clock back to the primordial ooze.
And I want to give a shout out to Mitt Romney, who’s diarrhea of the rich guy mouth, has given us some pretty awesome slogans to use, like
and many more where that one came from.
Betty Cracker
Excellent points, and it dovetails with my own on-the-ground experience in FL — in 2008 and now. One of the things I found shocking about 2008 was that when I volunteered, the Obama campaign took me up on it, and not in a perfunctory way, but in very active manner — can you show up here? Register voters there? Meet us at the coffee shop to crunch canvassing data?
The Florida Democratic Party is a hot mess, and I was really hoping they’d learn a thing or two from the Obama 2008 campaign. Sadly, no, at least not that I’ve seen here locally.
But I think you’re right about the approach now and then, and that the hard work that went into the 2008 campaign does get short shrift in favor of the “movement” narrative.
Kay
@Anya:
No, I didn’t go, I’m in Pittsburgh where my daughter lives. Columbus is a long haul for me, so I wouldn’t have gone anyway, to be honest. I went to a 2010 Obama rally in Columbus, but I didn’t go to rallies in 2008, because I already know what he’s going to say, and I have to devote a whole day to travel and standing in line.
I saw the coverage in the Ohio papers (online) and it looks like the focus is on 14,000 rather than 30,000, but I think that’s to be expected. They loved the 2008 magical narrative and they are also going to love the 2012 “hard cold reality” narrative, because they’re such uber-sophisticated cynics: they knew this was going to happen!
Anyway, I’m not surprised by the coverage. A little bored, I had hoped for something more original than “there is less energy than in 2008” because that’s a given to me, but not surprised :)
arguingwithsignposts
You know why these stories don’t make the MSM? Because the stupid reporters are all bunched on a bus or plane following “the campaign” to stenograph whatever the candidate and his surrogates say and then go back to the media bus and stare at the tea leaves in their cups for an “analysis” to generate page clicks and copy.
It would be nice if the national media realized that “the campaign” is more than a bus or a plane with the candidate on it.
The only other story you’ll usually get is the “view from campaign headquarters” (the Chicago braintrust, in Obama’s case) or the “oh, look at the cute people who are going around knocking on doors! How quaint” feature piece.
Chris
@Hill Dweller:
“Obama only won because he’s black” is the absolute best lame excuse for why they lost in 2008 that I’ve ever heard. The bitterness of the poor loser combined with the obsession with Obama’s blackness and with the utter detachment from reality that allows you to think being black gives you an advantage in this country.
Jean
I’m here in Virginia where the organizing seems much stronger in terms of areas covered than in 2008. Granted, VA is one of the top three states to win this time, but still. In Midlothian (Republican district) where I volunteer 1-2 days a week, we don’t even have campaign phones yet, but 6-8 people show up with their own cell phones and get to work. Voter registration goes on every week. Last week, we ran out of phone lists. In 2008, offices in this area didn’t really appear or truly function until summer.
Jeff
@c u n d gulag:
and rich assh*le banksters and politicos, and unenthusiastic rural voters
jefft452
“…nor am I even commenting on whether that’s a worthwhile or valuable thing to do. It just is.”
might be an interesting topic on it own
Hill Dweller
@Chris: Considering the toxic cocktail of fear and self-loathing they stew in everyday, I’m not surprised the wingers latch onto this sort of stuff. But the media should know better.
This morning, Tapper parrots the wingnut talking points on the attendance figures for Obama’s rally yesterday. Thankfully, Axelrod smacked Tapper down by pointing out 14,000 is still 11,000 more than Willard has ever drawn. But he shouldn’t even have to address what is obvious the Romney campaign’s attempt to deflect attention away from their own failings.
Again, I despise the majority of the national press.
Chris
@General Stuck:
I love it.
Not only because it slams Romney but because that sentence is what sums up our political divide. One side of the aisle cares about amorphous entities and thinks if those entities go on to trample the dignity of real living human beings, that’s just tough shit. The other side cares about people. Not states’ rights, not corporations’ rights, not churches’ rights, but people’s rights. What a novel idea.
General Stuck
@Hill Dweller:
It really has gotten to the point, where I am avoiding much as possible the juvenile natterings of the msm. It’s been weeks since I listened to MSNBC via XM radio, and have whittled down my forays on line to include Pol Wire, and Memerandum, and a few liberal blogs that halfway have their heads screwed on right. My BP demands it.
Kay
@Hill Dweller:
He drew 30,000 in Columbus (area) in 2010, and they (apparently) didn’t vote, so just don’t let narrative overcome reality, is my approach. The 30,000 rally was outdoors, a different venue, and it was fall, but looking at that 2010 rally (I went) I would have said we were in pretty good shape in 2010 to at least limit losses, and Democrats got absolutely slaughtered in OH in 2010. So there’s that.
14,000 is a good number for May. That’s all I’d conclude w/out more.
Anya
@Kay: That’s disappointing. I thought local news will be more authentic and focused on the message and what it means for their local area rather than trivialities. Oh, well.…
the Conster
@Schlemizel:
But our progressive betters would tell us that we’re just delusional Obots and need to stay home to teach them all a lesson, cuz nothing says VICTORY like taking yourself out of the game.
WereBear
I got stymied, not once but several times, in my attempts to phone bank during the 2008 campaign. I’m hoping it will be different this year; and I now have some phone numbers to call in case it does.
I do think we are shaping the future to come. This is why I’m hoping to free up some bucks, going forward, and also volunteer on the phone, which works best for me.
Kay
@Anya:
It’s going to be different because it is different. There will be downsides to “different” but there will also be upsides.
If they thought Obama’s entire success was due to abstract, airy theories on zeigtest and celebrity and disciplined national narrative (marketing) then they’re probably geared to analyzing this year in comparison to 2008 going in. That’s built in.
Compare and contrast is always the easiest analysis, which is why we see so much of it, and I always think there’s a sort of build up/take down thing going on in national political media. Anyway, that’s my take.
RalfW
One of the things about the major media that makes me nuts is this incessant desire to put Obama (or any modern president, though I feel like they gave Dubya a pass) on the couch and try and diagnose his motives, his ego, his id.
I guess writing about what he’s actually done and not done, and more importantly, how Congress (and the GOP in particular) has failed us is boring to them.
They’d rather pretend they’ve all got masters in, idunno, Jungian gestalt whatever, and pontificate endlessly about motives, what’s under there, etc.
They may not quite think he’s a Kenyan usurper, but I think they really dislike his cool dispassionate persona and I think they remain suspicious of it. The rest of us see a man working an impossible situation who can also sing Al Green and make that awesome “pitbull is delicious” joke (did you see Michelle totally groan and squirm like the long-suffering spouse of a bad-joke dude?).
He’s the prez, judge him on his work, not some elusive bullshit theories about him.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
Thanks as always, Kay. I’ve not yet seen a local team on the ground as well organized, energized and capable of assigning actual productive tasks as the 2008 Obama team. I expect the same this year. Good outreach down here already. And it’s what the national MSM narrative misses – what a tremendous ground team is in place.
WereBear
Holy crap, did they ever avoid that. Because it was just too damn easy.
RalfW
@General Stuck:
I would love it if Depche Mode would OK Obama’s campaign to use the People Are People song.
The lyrics are almost eerily too perfect.
Kay
@RalfW:
I honestly don’t remember, so maybe I fell into the “Obama as mysterious cipher” thing too, but I now look at him as “a President” or “a person”, in the context of the presidents I have seen.
I’m always struck by how blunt and ground-level he is in actual speaking compared to all these reports of “soaring rhetoric” and all that. There’s a disconnect there that I’ve never been able to square. I don’t (actually) listen to the speeches that often, but when I do I think “this is a very practical (and often funny) person”.
WereBear
That’s because the criticism is made-up crap by highly paid propagandists.
Maude
@Kay:
Obama is intelligent and they don’t understand that. It goes right over their pinheads.
gogol's wife
@WereBear:
This is exactly what my husband and I think every time we hear him. “He’s so Midwestern!” And I know he grew up in Hawaii and Indonesia, but those Kansas grandparents (and the time in Chicago) were very formative. He’s extremely down-to-earth. The MSM are idiots.
geg6
@Betty Cracker:
Same story here in PA. The ground game has been up and active and committed for months, just like ’08. And they do take your volunteering seriously, unlike any other Democratc election organization I’ve ever seen. And I’ve been volunteering for Democrats since 1976. Amazing focus. And I see people as or more committed than the last time. It may be a grimmer determination than we had in ’08, but we now know what we are up against and that the stakes may be higher than they were even then. I’m cautiously optimistic.
Comrade Mary
@RalfW: Yeah! And Romney could license this (which would break my heart because it’s still one of my favourites from them).
Ruckus
Since 2008, I’ve noticed this media narrative form around Obama and the Obama 2008 campaign where any success they had was due to celebrity or a compelling narrative or some fortuitous aligning of the stars.
My modest help in 08 besides voting was to phone bank. On election day I closed my shop and phoned for 3-4 hours. As we started I realized I had forgotten my reading glasses so I had to go to the drugstore and pick up a pair. Walked by the grumpy old man’s headquarters and there were 3 people in there. Sitting there looking stunned. Back at the democratic office there were 30-40 people in 2 rooms, with 2 people on computers generating and updating lists. It was hectic, it was actually pretty boring and cost a bundle in minutes. But the contrast in campaigns was huge. One did work, the other did bullshit.
Brian R.
Thanks for the report from Ohio and, of course, for doing the real work of the campaign.
I wish more people did the same, rather than sit back and consider bitching on the internet to be their contribution.
Elizabelle
@Ruckus:
In Northern Virginia in 2008, the McCain campaign office closed on Sundays.
Brian R.
@c u n d gulag:
Excellent advice, and keep up the good work.
robertdsc-iPhone 4
Thank you, Kay.
Elizabelle
Kay: great post. Thank you.
Citizens United and the voter suppression efforts might be giving the Obama campaign a gift that did not exist in 2008.
Supporters concerned about effect on the ground, and the feeling that the window on reaching voters may close earlier than expected this year. No taking anything for granted.
Yutsano
@geg6: Obama will win my state without trying. The real question will come from what the evangelical nuts in Bellevue do because of a Mormon on top of the ticket. I can’t imagine them being too supportive of the cult they label it as.
Cacti
I thought the overarching theme of this year’s campaign was “Forward”.
As compared to the same, warmed over, trickle down/neocon crap that Romney is peddling. When he actually cops to having policy positions, that is.
Cacti
Speaking of Mittens, what ever happened with the tens of Romney supporters that were going to “bracket” Obama’s campaign stops?
gaz
@Yutsano:
This is one of the reasons I like our state. There’s a plurality of people here that are not crazy assholes. Bellevue, Mercer Island, and east of the cascades notwithstanding.
rikyrah
Thank you kay, for another good ground report.
Daulnay
@Chris:
“white guilt” (reverse racism)
and Kay:
“any success they had was due to celebrity or a compelling narrative or some fortuitous aligning of the stars.”
The reason for this narrative is prejudice. The people saying these things cannot believe that Obama (a black man) can be a clever, wise, eloquent and remarkably competent campaigner. I shake my head every time I hear the Repubs. say ‘he has to use a teleprompter’. Their prejudice blinds them (and a lot of the media) to Obama’s competence and genius.
For all the mistakes he has made, and things he has done that I don’t like, he’s perhaps the best politician and national leader I have seen in my half a century. He doesn’t leave a lot to luck, and the only real political mistake he’s made was trying to get the Republicans to be bipartisan.
And even that was perhaps not a mistake — the Republicans made it clear that they’d rather ruin the nation than work with Obama. Citizens care about their country, and most of them (aside from the Tea Partiers) would rather not bring the country to ruin.
cosima
Yesterday I volunteered for the local OFA here in West Denver. We registered voters at an expo. Surprising number of people not registered and not interested in registering.
My partner in the effort, who’s an official sort of Obama Campaign person, was there longer and probably had more stories to tell, but the biggest one, for me, of those who did register on my watch, was the fella, who had been in the service for his 4 years, moved to CO from San Antonio, and had never been registered before. Never voted! Anyway, he said that his impetus for registering & voting was the 99% movement. In that he identified with it, not that he thinks they’re a bunch of DFHs or whatever.
Then there was the arsehole who said he was not registered to vote, not going to vote, his female companion (Pushing a stroller with a child in it) said they’d “taken an oath not to,” and further solidified one’s opinion of his stupidity by stating that “if Obama is reelected we’re moving to Canada.” Wearing a Fire Dept. t-shirt. I’d wish him the best of luck in Canada, but frankly that socialist country with national health care, schooling and gun-control wouldn’t take the bastard. The cognitive dissonance stench was strong.
Last election I received a hilarious email that was a narrative of a Canadian farmer talking about all of the Americans in their Volvos crammed with cases of wine trying to sneak across the Canadian border (to escape the McCain/Palin plague). Guess that’s reversed this time?
Then there was the GO RON PAUL speech that I got from a sadly delusional – but very passionate – young man.
Last weekend when I volunteered I tried to get the “organizer” from our neighborhood (volunteer) on board with a local effort, very local, meaning our neighborhood & the immediate area. She said “yea, sounds great” and I expect I’ll never hear about it from her again. If it was up to me (and I did volunteer to do this, but don’t want to step on her toes by going forward w/it on my own), emails would be going out to like-minded neighbors, gatherings in homes (volunteered to have one at mine), and plans would be made to go door to door. As far as I’m concerned, organizing now, going door to door, talking about issues, registering voters — the sooner the better, get people excited now, get them talking to their relatives and friends about registering and voting. It needs to happen now. Now now now.
Ruckus
@Elizabelle:
Of course it did.
One has to attend church the entire day, not just for an hour, to make up for being the mendacious assholes that republican politicians are.
gwangung
Yeah, they can’t believe a black man can outwork a white candidate. It’s like the talented black athlete vs. the hardworking, hard nosed white athlete.
Seriously, the anecdotal evidence I’m seeing is that the Obama campaign simply outworks the Republicans on the ground in GOTV and talking to voters. Anyone who thinks that doesn’t have an effect is an idiot (hello, MSM). Says nothing about being a magical Negro, or whatnot; hard work with competence with even a smidgen of charisma means a successful candidate.
Grumble, grumble….I wish some folks didn’t STOP at the first action. Complaining about the Blue Dogs without realizing that this was a process is idiocy of the first order.
cat48
Hi Kay, Great post & keep up the hard work in Ohio. I thought Obama did well in OH yesterday. Also, VA, that was standing room only. Michelle was very compelling. She spoke longer than usual. I think we have a good chance of winning both states, based on the statistics; if turnout is good. I’ve started ignoring a lot of cable shows b/c they’re concentrating on conflict & “an aging Rockstar” (that would be Obama). He was actually referred to that way in one of the several articles I read. Glad our “rockstar” didn’t have a lot of women with drug filled escapades. heh
Also, someone asked about Romney’s “bracketing” which would to me be humilitating If I were asked to do it for him as a supporter:
Elizabelle
@cat48:
Good catch, cat.
Here’s link to cat48’s story (comment 48); it’s AP via the WaPost.
Kay
@cat48:
I’m confused by the “bracketing”. I don’t know about it as a political strategy, but isn’t it inherently weak for someone who wants to be President?
The whole premise is we’re going to follow this person who is moving independently and autonomously around, and basically catcall and rebut.
Isn’t that an oddly weak and passive position? What is that?
I get it, I mean I know what they’re trying to do, they want a referendum on Obama rather than Romney actually fucking running for President (a choice), but I just don’t think it looks right, whatever the chances of success. Mitt Romney has to actually, at some point, run for President, right? Or is he just sort of the flip side of Barack Obama?
I guess the other possibility is this is a power move, ie: they’re “crowding” Obama and his supporters in the hopes that, what? We’ll stay home? Switch to Romney? Run away?
Maybe it’s a Wall Street thing, but are people supposed to be intimidated by someone following them around?
LongHairedWeirdo
I don’t get it. Why is Obama a “bruised” incumbent? What battering has he had that’s stuck?
There’s been a lot of shi, uh, mud slug at him, but it hasn’t stuck. His approval is near 50%, and Congress’s is, what, below the 28% absolute crazy percent? (Now I’m wondering what the semi-divided Congress crazification factor is. See, 28% is the people who will support a real crazy *person*, but some of that 28% will abandon Congress e.g., because they *didn’t* default on our debts and cause another global financial crisis.) I suspect the 14% Congressional approval might be the ultimate crazification factor in such circumstances.)
Why isn’t it “the Republicans, having shown weakness and failure are fighting against an unbloodied President who brought down bin Ladin and helped remove Qaddafi from power”?
It’s true, Obama hasn’t done what he wanted to do – but he did propose it, and Congress said “no!” So whose fault is that? (Yes, I know – the *real* question is “who gets blamed”, not “whose fault”.)
NR
@LongHairedWeirdo: Obama has done exactly what he wanted to do.
mclaren
If you had an organizing event at your house last night for Barack Obama, you’re helping destroy America. You should have had an organizing event for a mass nationwide write-in for a candidate who hasn’t morphed into Bush’s third term — someone like Elizabeth Warren.