The final Public Policy Polling count ahead of tomorrow’s recall election shows a slight Walker lead in a race that’s tightening up in the final hours.
PPP’s final poll on the Wisconsin recall finds Scott Walker ahead, but also a race that’s tightening. Walker leads Tom Barrett 50-47. That’s down from 50-45 on a PPP poll conducted three weeks ago and it’s also down from a 52-45 lead that Walker posted in a Marquette Law poll released last week.
Barrett is actually winning independent voters by a 48-46 margin. The reason he continues to trail overall is that Republicans are more excited about voting in Tuesday’s election than Democrats are. Our projected electorate voted for Barack Obama by only 7 points, even though he took the state by 14 in 2008. If the folks who turn out on Tuesday actually matched the 2008 electorate, Barrett would be ahead of Walker by a 50-49 margin. It’s cliche but this is a race that really is going to completely come down to turnout.
Needless to say, if you’d like to help out with turning out the vote, you can help out with phone banking here. Today’s the day we need you to help. It’s crunch time, and you can make calls from your own home. It’s easy and simple. This race is winnable, folks.
Fire Walker with me.
Schlemizel
Its the least I can do – and never let it be said I didn’t do the least I could do 8-{D
Donut
I can’t phone bank but, damn it, I have been busting out the credit card to help with this effort as best I can right now.
Sifting and winnowing, bitchez.
PS – it is not all about Walker, either – one flipped state Senate seat will also do a lot to neuter that jail-bound rat-fucker.
Linda Featheringill
Good morning. I’m up and facing the day, but am not happy about it all. Ugh. Still, I’m just one grumpy person and not all that important.
Wisconsin, on the other hand, is very important. It’s a test run between gotv on the ground and tons of money on the airways. Both sides are giving the contest their best shot.
Everybody but DWS knows this is a very, very significant contest.
Go, Wisconsin!
The Other Bob
I read somewhere that OFA resources around the country are engaged in phone banking and other activities on this effort.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
Why aren’t Democrats excited? Why isn’t keeping evil people out of office enough to get excited?
Schlemizel
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
You might want to ask the police & fire unions about that – seems they think Scotty is just dandy.
“As long as it is someone else taking it up the ass its just fine by me” The motto of these two (and too many other) fine unions.
NancyDarling
This is not what John Nichols of The Nation, who is a Wisconsin native, was reporting on Up with Chris yesterday.
This is a battle between big money (Kochs) and feet on the ground. Nichols also said without all the outside money, Barret would be winning in a land slide. He has spent 2.9 million to Walker’s 29 million. 62% of Walker’s money is out of state. 26% of Barrett’ is out of state.
We need to win this thing! On Wisconsin!
kay
I personally find beating paid pundits very inspiring, so maybe that’s true for people in Wisconsin, too.
The soul-dead, vacant-eyed zombie choir have called this one before a single vote is counted, and they seem smugly pleased with their hoped-for result.
Apparently second grade teachers who may bargain collectively are a huge threat to America, and must be crushed by media millionaires carrying water for billionaires. Does anyone know if the Fox News journalists are producing and running pro-Walker ads this morning? They were heavily involved in the Issue Two race in Ohio, where they backed their former co-worker, John Kasich.
It would be great to beat them, let alone Scott Walker :)
TR
Let’s get moving, people. Whatever you can do, do it.
Ash Can
Go you cheeseheads, go! You can do it!
bystander
Why is this:
true?
Comparing the donation reservoirs of the Koch brothers to the small donors of the PCCC is laughable. I already know the PCCC is doing everything it can do. But, where is the “Democratic Party’s money machine”? Where is the Democratic institutional support for Barrett? Why is it that the Republican Party infrastructure understands the importance of this vote but – apparently – the Democratic Party’s infrastructure does do not? Or, are they saving all their pennies for a “rainy day”? Why are the Democratic Party’s major donors leaving Barrett and Wisconsin’s Democratic voters to twist in the wind?
Zandar
@bystander:
I would argue that they do understand, but they didn’t get their asses in gear until the last week at most.
If anything, they sandbagged in order to produce outrage. Kind of a dumb strategy, really.
WaterGirl
Is it too late for donations to have an impact on the outcome? I have given everything I can afford, and more on top of that, but the race is close so if donations today could help tip the outcome, there’s always food money!
But I don’t want to dig into that unless more money really could change the outcome. Anybody close enough to this race in wisconsin that knows the answer to that?
Butch
Happened unfortunately to see Candy Crowley on Sunday morning interviewing the Republican governor of Virginia on the subject of the Wisconsin recall – and he knows what about it, exactly? – because Snotty Walker was too “busy” to appear on teevee.
japa21
I was talking to my sister-in-law who lives in Hayward in the north woods. I asked if she was going to vote. Her response,”Let me put it this way, HELL YES.” She is not a teacher but woprks in the public schools. Her hsuband, who is a non-union heating and air conditioning guy is even more fired up to get rid of Walker than she is.
She has 4 kids, two who agree with her, one Walker supporter and one still torn. She is pushing on the last one real hard.
mds
Once the red haze receded and I stopped cursing quite so much, I read this from @Donut:
and I wondered if this might be having an effect, given that many people in the “decent” middle seem uncomfortable with the very notion of a gubernatorial recall, regardless of what Walker has done. The latest round of state senate recalls has flown largely under the radar, yet some of them are being fought on promising turf, and Dems winning just one of them would flip control of the state senate. So if you’re someone who finds the idea of recalling an out-of-control governor as worthy of the smelling salts, one rationalization might be that the senate will probably be in Democratic hands, so Walker will have to become more “bipartisan” to get anything done. Never mind that he’s already accomplished most of what he was hired to do, with the possible exception of “right-to-work.”
Jerzy Russian
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Good question.
@kay:
Well, if those teachers would stop filling our kids’ heads with liberal ideas like reading and writing, we would have this problem.
ruemara
I did phone banking yesterday. We had a pretty full house and although I came to do an hour out of our 3 hour block, I got one sheet done and we were finished in 2.5 hours. I had a 1-1 in the strong yes/no columns, 11 out of home/disconnected, but most people had 2-1 on the yes to Barret/no to Walker column, some had 6-1. I didn’t want this to go down without making sure I did something to help. Did donate but this year is still not the banner year where I joined the .001% and overthrow them from the inside. I’m feeling cautiously optimistic, I think the big polls are more trying to provide common wisdom and a little tamping down of recall enthusiasm. They know where their bread is buttered.
elm
I’ve never participated in a phonebank like this before. Can somebody with practical experience tell me how a typical call goes?
I’m aware of Scott Walker’s union-fucking efforts, but I don’t know anything about Tom Barrett; is that ignorance a problem?
Or is it just a call to D-registered voters to remind them that the election is tomorrow, that the recall is an issue on it, and to tell them where their polling place is?
bystander
@bystander:
I appreciate the response. And, as accurate as you likely are, cannot we both agree on how utterly lame this excuse is? It’s not your excuse, so I’m not characterizing your reply as lame, it’s the Democratic Party’s inability (I use that advisedly because there is both ability and willingness in these kinds of decisions) to assess, anticipate and respond that’s lame. It’s that you have to offer this excuse at all that makes me suspicious of the excuse in the first place.
We have seen this excuse from the Democratic Party before. With each repetition I am more inclined to zero in on the willingness part of the equation. And, that unwillingness so as to produce outrage is a breathtakingly cruel and manipulative strategy to visit on Democratic voters and small donors.
It wouldn’t surprise me were I to discover that Wisconsin Democratic voters full well understand this. The message is this: If you want Barrett, you get him in on your own. We – the Party infrastructure – will shoot a Hail Mary pass for you at zero hour to give you a bit of a boost. But, if Barrett is your Governor, it will be because you did it, largely on your own. If that’s the situation, the voter’s lack of enthusiasm is absolutely rational, and fully understandable.
A, WTF?, response from Wisconsin’s voters would be the only thing that made sense in this sorry tale should Barrett lose this election.
Shalimar
@WaterGirl: Donations on the last few days before a vote never has an impact. It doesn’t arrive in time for planning or to spend it on anything, basically all you are doing is helping to pay off debts that have already been incurred.
martha
@kay: This, this, and this some more. God I hate all of them. As much as I would like Tom Barrett to win (heck I voted for him for Governor 10 frickin years ago in the primary when he ran against Jim Doyle), I want him to win even more to shock the living daylights out of the know-it-all know-nothings that just blab and bluster all day and all night long. They don’t know shit about this state and what people really think.
Walker’s divide and conquer BS is like a reality TV show–drama! Excitment! Resentment! Anger! Rage! But it’s not productive. Show me a normal business–not Glengarry Glenn Ross style business–that can function and be productive and successful over the long term with “divide and conquer”? None. Show me a family that functions well? Show me a community that functions well? They don’t exist.
All I know is that tomorrow is all about turnout. I also know that if Walker is reelected he’ll be indicted by the end of the year. For all of you old folks, it’s Richard Nixon all over again.
blahblah
Barret is Walker’s secret time-travel love child.
kay
@martha:
Ugh. It’s not enough they had to ruin national races for normal people with that cynical, horrible fake-savvy. Now they’re branching out into state races, because they did such a bang-up job on national races, we now need them to guide our thoughts down to the school board level. Can we keep local coverage, pretty please, or is that too much to ask?
Judas Escargot, Your Postmodern Neighbor
@Schlemizel:
I do believe you’ve stumbled upon the title of our new National Anthem.
I just don’t understand Wisconsin at all (ninety-nine sheep and one wolf, voting on which sheep get eaten next). But good luck out there in any case.
Zandar
@martha:
Which means Lt. Gov. Rebecca Kleefisch will be able to run the Kochs game without interference.
Mnemosyne
@Zandar:
Only if the state senate recalls also fail. If they succeed and the Democrats win the majority, then Kleefisch can’t push the Koch agenda forward.
Changing the state senate is probably more important than changing the governor, but if the Democrats win the state senate and lose the gubernatorial recall, I’m fully expecting all kinds of “Democrats FAIL! Why do we always lose!?” rending of garments instead of being pleased that we fucking beat them at their own game.
Mnemosyne
Also, too, it does kind of bug me that all of the national attention is on the Big Brass Ring of recalling Walker, when the votes more likely to bring us a good conclusion are actually the state senate recalls. What’s up with that? Is it easier for the national media to concentrate on a single office and present it as some kind of “winner take all” choice instead presenting the multiple possible outcomes? Is the gubernatorial recall just a “sexier” story?
I wouldn’t be surprised if a lot of the Democratic money is going towards the senate races instead of the governor’s race, because that’s where the real change would happen. Getting Barrett as governor when the state senate still has a Republican majority would only be the slightest of improvements.
WaterGirl
@Shalimar: Thanks for the reply. I’m willing to eat ramen for a week if it can really make a difference. If it’s just paying off debt already incurred, then I can help with that next month.
kideni
We’re working on it! I’m about to go do lit drops around town, and a lot of us have also been out canvassing (though why they keep sending people around my neighborhood, which votes in astronomical numbers and usually 90-95% Dem, instead of making sure more people hit the less reliable areas, I have no clue). It’s hard for me to reliably gauge enthusiasm around the state since I’m in the People’s Republic of Madison, but it really does seem like momentum is on Barrett’s side. Also, early voting was strong in Madison and Milwaukee; also strong in Republican areas, but apparently not quite as strong.
Xecky Gilchrist
Best wishes to the WI crowd. May it not be the case that it’s a tie down to the last minute when several hundred thousand Republican votes are “found.”
japa21
@Zandar: That is assuming that Kleefisch wins her recall. It is not outside the realm of possibility that Walker wins, Kleefisch loses and at least one Senate seat is flipped. When Walker is taken out in handcuffs WI would then have a Dem governor and a Dem controlled Senate.
Donut
@bystander:
I dunno, I wish more $$ had come earlier from the national party organization and certain unions, but there is something to be said for the fact it’s good optics to have a David vs. Goliath story. Also too, if you know WI, you know that many ‘Sconsonites feel like their state is a pretty special and unique place (which I agree with) and that “outside meddling” is problematic. Barrett has used the outside money and influence ad a pretty effective attack. You would lose some of that with too much outside dough. Also also too too – As I said at top of the thread, and others reiterated, one Senate seat here is waaaaaaaay more important. I’ve been giving $ to both Barrett and the senate effort. The point has already been made with Walker no matter what . I want him gone but will settle for the Senate flipping. Walker’s career is not going to go well from here.
randiego
I assume that the Madison area turnout will be down since UW is in summer break. Does anyone know if students can submit absentee ballots or have the Republicans eliminated that possibility?
Jack Burton
@Schlemizel: Actually, the only police and fire unions that are backing Walker are in Milwaukee. All other police and fire in Wi. are for Barrett. We are not a red state.
kideni
@randiego: Yes, students still can vote absentee, and I know there was a big effort to get that word out. A change in the law that did complicate things is that the residency requirement was increased from 10 days to 28, and another law shortened the early voting period from (I think) 28 days to two weeks, which pretty much made it so that students would have to vote absentee if they’d ever registered at their campus addresses. There have been reports of misdirected absentee ballots and ballots never received, so it’s kind of distressing.
David Koch
Vote Green!
Teach the Democrats a lesson for nominating a Blue-Dog, neoliberal, conservaDem, centrist, DLC stooge in the pocket of banksters.
A Conservative Teacher
Hey, I just read on an unnamed blog that just make it up that Tom Barrett took a machine gun and murdered a whole village of women and children 20 years ago! Then he flew to the moon and pissed all over it! And that he really is the devil! There is no source at all for any of these things, and I’m honestly just making it up, but I all know for a fact that you’ll all believe it and get all fake worked up about it, because that’s just kind of your thing, right?