I like a lot of Croatia’s players: Eduardo, Nikica Jelavic, Darijo Srna, Luka Modric and Niko Krancjar to name a few. I have to admit to ignorance about most of their defenders, the sole exception being Vedran Corluka, who is with Tottenham Hotspur on loan to Bayer Leverkusen. Their defense may be their biggest problem as everything that I have turned up in research indicates that they are a slow, which puts them as a distinct disadvantage against the other teams in the group.
Ireland also has some good attackers (Robbie Keane, Damien Duff, and Kevin Doyle) and a decent back four with Richard Dunne and John O’Shea coming to mind. I believe that their problem in this group will be maintaining possession and in a group that has Spain and Italy in it, that’s not a formula for success.
Italy facing a major crisis in the sport in advance of a major tournament is nothing new: the Calciopoli scandal erupted right before the 2006 World Cup and they won; Paolo Rossi won the Golden Boot and Golden Ball and Italy won the World Cup in 1982 after Rossi had come off a two year match fixing ban (he claimed he was innocent). Accordingly, I don’t believe that this latest scandal will cost them anything other than Domenico Criscito’s participation – for now. Their team is still deep enough, especially with the seemingly ageless Andrea Pirlo in the midfield, but critical to their success will be if the volatile Mario Balotelli and the recuperating Antonio Cassano will live up to expectations. If it were up to me, I’d go with Antonio di Natale.
This is not the Spain of Euro 2008 or even World Cup 2010. Carles Puyol is out injured. David Villa, so crucial in World Cup 2010 and Euro 2008 still is not fit to play after his broken leg in the World Club Cup. Gerard Pique has disappointed in club play this year. Nevertheless, take a look at their roster. They have an embarrassment of riches in the midfield and David Villa’s absence notwithstanding, they still have Fernando Torres, Juan Mata, Pedro, and Fernando Llorente as forwards.
I believe that Spain will go through and as much as I would like for Croatia to as well, I believe Italy will advance.
C.J.
As a fan of Germany, I still hate Spain after the World Cup. That game was flat out painful to watch, simply because Spain shut down the flow of the game. I understand that was their whole shtick, but my god was it boring as hell.
Not to mention seeing the beautiful Germans reduced to halting steps and listless play. Just nauseating. Couldn’t do a damn thing offensively.
pseudonymous in nc
Italy v. Spain is in the first pair of group games, so if you factor in “Italians always start a competition slowly” with Spain’s somewhat knackered squad, then I think you probably end up with a conservatively-played draw, which means a result for either Croatia or Ireland gives them a tiny bit of momentum going into their two tougher matches. Croatia v. Ireland, in contrast, is going to be an old-fashioned hoof and head-the-ball contest, which won’t tell us much about how either team will do against their other group opponents.
Hard to bet against Italy and Spain going through, but I have no idea who’s going to win the group, and I’m not convinced that either of them will make it to the final.
Mark S.
Another freakin’ Italian match fixing scandal?
Fnarf
As a huge Crottenham Hotspur fan I can confirm that Charlie Corluka was close to being the slowest player in the Premier League when he played there. But in the slower more measured world of the Euros, he’s not completely worthless. Modric is brilliant, though, and Niko Kranjcar not only has those dreamy blue eyes, he’s a good international player. I like them for surprise second.
Ireland’s too dependent on the old guys (and no one in football, including your local recreational league seniors division, is older than Robbie Keane); and Italy, well, Italy needs to find themselves again after a fairly long period (for them) of embarrassment. Remember how horrible they were in South Africa? Drawing Paraguay and New Zealand (New Zealand!), losing to Slovakia — a worse showing than the famously awful France. Remember also they qualified by beating such monster powerhouses as Faroe Islands and Estonia (and Serbia only by forfeit).
Punchy
Would be fun to watch the Spanes lose to Italy and draw even w/ the Croats. Pearl clutching in Madrid and Barça would be epic.
burnspbesq
The triumph of hope over experience: believing Ireland will find a way to advance.
BGinCHI
Spain and Croatia will go through. Or Italy inexplicably goes through and makes the finals. They are like Sweden in that sense: you can’t see how the gears work, but they work. But this year they have to lean on the complete asshole Balotelli, who is talented but without class. He makes Suarez look like Roberto Clemente.
r€nato
Italy will, as usual, underperform but make it through.
Forza Azzurri!
r€nato
@BGinCHI:
I fail to see what the latter has to do with the former… unless and until he blows up at one or more of his teammates.
BGinCHI
@r€nato: 3…2…1…liftoff.
I’m just saying, guys like that don’t last. We’ll see if Italia has playmakers to get him the ball, as he sure as fuck isn’t going to track back for it.
handsmile
Which national team will place second is the only significant question in this Group. (And it won’t be Ireland, though the Trapattoni v. Prandelli match on June 18 should be operatic.)
As if the Italian squad does not have enough distraction with the match-fixing scandal, the notoriously temperamental Mario Balotelli has threatened, “If someone throws a banana at me in the street, I will go to jail, because I will kill them.” I would imagine that remark will only encourage racist chants or behavior by ultras attending matches in Poland and especially Ukraine. Balotelli has already been the victim of racist abuse in matches for both Italy and ManCity. And who would claim that his threat is merely figurative?
On last night’s football thread, both BGinChi and Brandon tried to make the case for Croatia’s chances. I’m familiar with exactly the same players as Randinho, adding only the soon-to-be ex-Bayern midfielder Danijel Pranjic, and so am unable to evaluate adequately the overall squad strengths. In qualifying for Euro2012, Croatia was runner-up to Greece in a group that included such powerhouses as Latvia, Malta and Georgia; however, they impressively dispatched Turkey in the qualification playoff.
Should the Italians once again find cohesion in adversity, their roster, coach, and pedigree will prove sufficient to join Spain in going through to the quarterfinals.
BGinCHI
Hey Randy, why not a BJ pool with brackets for the tournament?
You could set it up…..
BGinCHI
@handsmile: I will not have you badmouthing Malta. And I can only point out that Georgia is one of our best football states. Latvia can suck it.
Modric will put that team on his back and carry it to a bare 2nd place finish.
handsmile
@BGinCHI:
I think the “bare back” comments are best suited for an Andrew Sullivan-themed thread.
Randy Paul
@BGinCHI: I barely have time to do these posts and am badly sleep deprived, but maybe for the 2014 WC. I plan to be living in Brazil by then.
As for Italy, I believe Cesare Prandelli makes a big difference, but I believe the overall weakness of he group helps them.
Blue Neponset
Good to see you back Randinho.
I think this is Germany’s tournament to win.
In this group, it is hard to see Spain not advancing. I would love to see the Azzuri not make it through but that seems unlikely.
LGRooney
I think France and Holland are going to surprise everyone. Spain may end up being triumphant because they have more team unity than France ever could hope to attain. Holland will do as they always do – dazzle and impress until they reach a semifinal or final and then fall apart.
If Germany can move on from Gomez, they might have a better chance – anyone see how he choked in the Champions League final?
England are England – spoiled and over-hyped, they won’t pass the quarterfinals.
Although I like Modric immensely, I know the Croatians (the people, not the team members) too well and can’t support them – several years around the Balkans will influence anyone in this direction, I think (absolutely beautiful country but the people are just incredibly arrogant and not too far from their recent post-YU past).
Italy? They always come through defensively – even if it’s 10 men behind the ball. Always, always. Balotelli could be headed for trouble after declaring he would kill anyone who expressed their racism publicly – that won’t serve the team well given the natural tendencies of the Poles and, even more so, the Ukrainians. If he can contain himself, he might shine – he is one of the most gifted strikers to come along in a while but, as with so may of the extremely gifted, he’s got a few screws loose.
Czech Republic and Ireland? Too old. Greece? Lucky to be there and not enough talent to make it past the first round.
Potential spoilers of the “big ones” and underrated, at the least, are Sweden, Russia, and Denmark. Of the three I think Denmark have the strongest possiblity. Sweden are a bit too old and the Russians don’t have enough unity.
Portugal also have the possibility to ruin the day for the one of the favorites but I don’t see them being able to reach the final – it’s just history, they always underperform despite their immense talent (I know plenty love to hate Ronaldo but he is a fabulous talent and not the egoistic bad guy people make him out to be – he is driven as hell to win and may be able to drag the rest of the team with him).
BGinCHI
@LGRooney: I thought the Serbs were the arrogant ones around there…. Now I know.
If Croatia’s defense holds they are going to be tough.
As for teams being “old,” some teams are old, some are experienced, and some just play old. England can get as young as it wants, but it always plays like a bunch of grumpy old men.
I wish Wales had made it into the finals.
Jonas
This Italian soccer training video never gets old:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=9ukFUEI5qz8
LGRooney
@BGinCHI: Oh hell, the Serbs are arrogant as well. There were no angels in that region during the 80s-90s. The Bosnians suffered the most but plenty of Croats and Serbs suffered as well. The Croatians were just better with the PR and the Bosnians latched onto their efforts. Nationalist shitheads were popping up all over the place and calling on their people to fight to protect their own. The Croats rolled out the national anthem and symbols of their pro-Nazi WWII past; the Serbs rolled out their racist supremacy and originalist crap, i.e., Croats and Bosnians were no different ethnically (true enough since there are no ethnic differences in this historical crossroad area – they got everything from across the globe rolled into their ethnic history) but were actually lost Serbs – except for the extremists for whom non-Serbs were sub-Yugoslavs; the Bosnians (whose only difference from others was that they were Muslims) claimed victimhood while they tried to cleanse their border regions of non-Muslims and were dismayed that other Muslim countries didn’t run to their aid before running to the US for help defeating the others who were more militarily capable; etc., etc.
It was a mixed up place. It is a mixed up a place. Nice beaches, mountains, and food, however.
Randinho
@C.J.: I believe Spain did a great job sucking in the Spaniards all game long with the short corners and finally broke the spell with a completely unmarked Puyol to drive the perfectly delivered corner home.
They got outfoxed.