There’s been a call for one…
Reader N sent in a bunch of links about this:
Where to follow the results.
Univision, though in Spanish the site has very clearly labelled the counts so one can follow along.
Articles
From The Economist a magazine that covers the region better than anyone:
A backgrounder on all the candidates.
A profile of Peña Nieto and their take on him and his program.
An interview with their correspondent which is probably the best lay out of the field ahead of the election I have seen in English.
Other analysis:
Strong article about the Drug War and how it is or not affecting the election.
This article from Time (originally published in El Pais) by former Foreign Minister Catañeda (who has been raging against the militarization of the drug conflict and gang wars since the beginning) is a good analysis on why the PRI today is not be the PRI of yesterday and why Mexico definitely isn’t either.
FT guide, good overall but better because of the links in it to a slew of articles
And a must-read about the Student Movement, Yo Soy132.
cathyx
What, by one person?
aangus
“There’s been a call for one…”
I’ll have two.
arguingwithsignposts
who made this call?
jl
@cathyx:
An election with two incumbents (though one unofficial) should be interesting.
I think all three candidates have called for changes in insane US drug laws and enforcement. Anyone know if that is correct? If so, I will be happy on that account no matter who wins.
Edit: I’m taking it seriously. DougJ never spoofs.
PeakVT
I’d like to see the PRD win, but all the reports I’ve heard said the PRI will come out on top.
Mexico might want to consider adding a runoff since it’s likely there will be three viable parties for a while.
cathyx
@jl: I meant who called for a thread. And I’m guessing it was you.
jl
@cathyx:
No, it was not me.
Let’s see if some one who knows something substantial about the election shows up. It was them!
Edit: and the typo I corrected was not a Freudian slip.
Joel
I’m actually interested in who wins BCS, since I was just there a month ago and was blown away by the number of billboards, signs, placards, stickers, etc.
Canuckistani Tom
Not a bad idea to step outside the bubble every once in a while, and see what’s going on next door
Joax
I live in Oaxaca, in southern Mexico and this will be a very interesting and important election. Do you even know who the candidates are?
A few things about the election.
1. The presidential campaign is limited to three months.
2. The president serves a single six year term.
3. They vote on the weekend.
Sounds pretty good, huh?
Also, too, oaxaqueños and most Mexicans are very politically aware and involved. I mean, they march, they protest, they blockade, they make their voices heard. Look at the current youth movement “Soy 132.” The US could learn a few things from them.
Obviously, just like in El Norte, there is a lot at stake. I think that sometimes people in the US forget that the rest of the world exists, blinded by the whole “exceptionalism” thing. As they say “the whole world is watching” and we all have the internets, too.
Think of the issues Mexicans have to deal with. First, there is the whole interconnected cartel/guns/immigration mess, which has so many threads and connections from the NRA to Monsanto to US crops not being picked to the private prisons making big bucks just holding folks before deportation, etc,…
Then they have to deal with the incredible amount of hatred that the right has so infused into North American culture.
So it is an important election. And big surprise, none of the candidates is perfect. However, as I am a guest here, I will hold off on any predictions…. although everyone knows who is going to win.
Litlebritdifrnt
@efgoldman:
Ditto. It would be a huge win for the revenue part of the deal and a huge win for the not having to spend money on totally useless law enforcement expenditures part of the deal. Prosecuting folks for stupid amounts of marijuana costs the court systems billions, it is, not to put too fine a point on it, utterly stupid.
Steeplejack
@Canuckistani Tom:
That’s just crazy talk.
jl
@Joax: Who are you supporting?
Valdivia
I asked, but the election is tomorrow, Sunday. :)
Though I am willing to make a prediction…
Amir Khalid
I’d recommend Ross Douthat for the mock-as-needed list, if I thought he were at all important.
David Koch
by a 5-4 decision, along party lines. the Supreme Court rules PRI has won, with Scalia delivering the majority rant.
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
The PRD would have had a really good chance if they had gone with the Mayor of the DF the young and very competent Marcelo Ebard. He is extremely popular, has proved himself making the DF the least dangerous city in the Mexico. But they went with Lopez Obrador who codes really old in contrast with Pena Nieto and Mota.
PeakVT
@Valdivia: Stop with the teasing and predict!
Keith
Not related to Mexico, but is anyone else finding Washington Monthly to be unreadable (in IE7,8, and 9) this week? They (along with Sully) have these new advertisements that screw up the HTML, although Sully’s just obscures a single post; Washington Monthly has a screen full of whitespace with about 2 inches of content on the right of the screen.
It’s getting annoying enough to where I am ready to delete the bookmark after years of going there regularly.
jl
I will check back for info and predictions.
Will it be as tight as last time, anyone?
I’m a little worried what another dead heat finish would do.
Edit: People who predict correctly are allowed to buy Tunch food for a week. It’s considered a great honor.
Litlebritdifrnt
This is funny as shit you guys.
http://blogs.suntimes.com/ebert/internet-commenters-hold-busin.html
Ebert is da biz.
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
Ha! It will be very very surprising if Peña Nieto doesn’t win.
While he is the candidate of the PRI (ruling party since the Mexican Revolution, defeated for the first time in 2000) he is young and ‘fresh’ looking. It is hard, for me at least, to assess how much the PRI itself may have changed after years of rampant corruption and what some people have called la dictadura perfecta, but at least one thing is different: Peña Nieto is the first ever candidate of the PRI who was elected in a free primary instead of chosen/appointed by the previous leader of the party. In that sense the PRI is not like it was before, and Mexico too is vastly different now than in the 90s. It is a gamble how much reform he will bring and how much he will get done, it will depend on what kind of advantage he has in Congress. It has turned out that the Mexican Presidency is very weak when devoid of the force of the dictatorship it had during 70 years plus. If he has congress he may be able to get some really interesting things done.
Valdivia
@jl:
I really doubt it will be that close. Nieto has a solid advantage of 10 or so points in the polls leasing into tomorrow.
@Joax:
glad you piped in! the Soy132 movement is very dynamic and interesting and their focus is more on the duopoly of the media and their relationship with the candidates, like an Occupy the Village done right.
Warren Terra
I don’t know much about the election (I really ought to pay more attention to Mexico and to Latino culture … I’ve lived in SoCal for two years now), but last week’s On The Media was very interesting, including its discussion of the election.
Valdivia
@Warren Terra:
you’re giving me a happy! Marianne McCunne is excellent. She lived in Mexico city a few years ago so it’s great to see her reporting about something she knows really well.
Valdivia
Some good analysis in English about what the PRI election might mean.
Amir Khalid
@Litlebritdifrnt:
There’s that place name, again.
PeakVT
@Valdivia: I think the question to ask is: has the PRI changed at the state level where it has continued to hold power? However, the state and federal parties might not be all that closely connected, so the answer could be irrelevant.
Southern Beale
Fuck the Mexican elections. How about this:
Mainstream Media Keep Interviewing the Same “Small Business Owner” — Who’s Being Put on the News by ALEC-Linked Group
Keith
@efgoldman: That’s interesting…must be some kind of Mozilla quirk that WM is being written against, because his content is inside the sidebar rather than in the main content area (this is based on looking at the page source). I feel like I’m back in the 90s again, but now sites are being “optimized” for Firefox.
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
yes that is a good question. If anything, I think the PRI has been under a bigger microscope in how they govern than maybe the PAN or the PRD. Peña Nieto was himself a Governor (Mexico state, the biggest in the country) and by all accounts a good one. If you hear him speak or see him you completely get why he is going to win. After decades of stodgy old guys as Presidents they finally get someone who looks like he is part of the 21st century (this is why I never understood why the PRD didn’t take the big big chance with Ebard and instead went with someone who looks like he is from the good old days of the PRI-reign because Lopez Obrador may be PRD but he looks like a Pri-ista of olden days).
In Mexico, traditionally the Parties are very much integrated so it does matter. What is interesting is that the PRI during its 70-years rule had periods that were very progressive and populist (in the 30s and 40s) while it had others that were very business friendly (50s late 60s and beginning again in the 80s). So if we say is this guy like the PRI of old–which PRI are we talking about. It seems to be he is a bit of both wings but in a very fresh package. I have to say, it is a bit exciting to see a new generation making it into Mexican politics. Latin America recycles too much its political leadership making it harder to get new generations involved.
And one more thing–I think the most intractable issue is not so much is this the Old PRI or not, but how can they reform the institutions (like the media, the rule that you can’t run for office unless a member of the established parties, etc) and if they do reform them, is it a democratic package that works for a modern mexico.
/I know, I went on and on. hhis ;)
Javier
Hello all.
I’m actually going to be a polling place official tomorrow. I got selected, like jury duty!.
In order to eliminate the massive electoral corruption of the last 70 years, the government created the most transparent election process imaginable in the 90’s.
Every election year people are selected at random to server as the poll workers. Each polling place has 4 people and we do everything from setting up to counting the votes.
There are no hole punches or chads or computers. A ballot is a piece of paper with the name of the candidates and you get a marker and you cross off your choice, you fold it up and put it in a transparent box.
At the end of the day we will count the votes by hand. Each party is allowed to have an observer in each voting place but all they can do is observe and lodge formal complaints. Anybody can be an observer, even foreigners, you just have to register with the Federal agency.
We then tally the votes, post the results outside the voting place and transport the votes in sealed envelopes to the state office of the Federal Elections Institute for a recount.
In order to vote you have to register (before obviously) and present a voter I.D. card. I know right!?
Our voter I.D. card system is the only way we can insure that every vote is legitimate and each person votes only once (the card is punched each election).
However, since the voting system is Federalized and it’s universal across all states, getting a card is easy. And since it is the only official form of government I.D. (nobody takes drivers licences) and even low income and low education mexicans require an I.D. for government services, we have close to 90% of mexicans registered to vote.
So there’s some background on our election process. Hope it was informative
Baud
@Javier:
And you call yourself a democracy?
PeakVT
@Javier: Gracias, Javier.
PeakVT
@Baud: No electoral college, either. Craaaay-zeeeee…
jl
@Valdivia:
“Nieto has a solid advantage of 10 or so points”
That’s good. I haven’t followed the campaign. But was wondering whether PAN could possibly maintain support. The economics post NAFA for lower income people has not worked as some had hoped (and economists had said would be a slum dunk). Surprised they could hang in their for 2006.
Valdivia
@Javier:
Hola Javier!
This is really great report-from-the-ground information. I hope if we talk about the election again tomorrow that you tell us what you thought and how it went.
In Costa Rica, where I am from, we also have a national id. The number is given to us, assigned, when we are born, and when we turn 18, you are able to apple and receive it. It’s free of cost and there are offices all over the country to get them. No real hassle but it is the only thing that allows you to vote on election day. It’s always weird to me, though I understand why, that you don’t have that system here.
Good luck tomorrow!
Baud
@PeakVT:
I was thinking the other day how much I dislike the electoral college. It forces the President to be the President of the Swing States, rather than President of the United States.
I also think Democrats would do better under a popular vote system, although I can’t explain why I believe that.
Valdivia
@jl:
I think Mota was too identified with Calderon and he is tainted, not by the economics, but by the militarization of the war on drugs. Lopez Obrador may get closer than 10 points but it will not be the razor thin difference of last time around. Also–see Javier’s post above about all the changes the Electoral Institute (which was created to do elections and is not affiliated with any one party) put into effect after the 1988 debacle. They have been working very hard to do elections cleanly. (the media is another issue, but the actual running of them is not open to questions anymore)
pseudonymous in nc
Return of the PRI, the default party of government. Or AMLO gets robbed again, though I don’t think it’s going to be a repeat of 2006.
My ongoing thought about Mexican politics — and the actual Mexican commenters can slap me if I’m wrong — is that jettisons a lot of people who would, in other circumstances, vote for the PRD. Which is fine by the US, because AMLO’s cordiality with the broad left in Latin America is treated as a scary scary thing.
jl
@Javier:
Thanks very much for info. Sounds good. Send up some advisors and help out your backward neighbor to the north, when you folks have a moment.
“I’m actually going to be a polling place official tomorrow.”
But until then, before you have to be all neutral, you can dish a little politics, right?
Yutsano
@Baud:
The election would be decided by about five or six states, at least three of them reliably blue. The Republicans’ only firewall would be Texas.
Warren Terra
@Southern Beale:
Um, you do realize this was the subject of a Balloon-Juice post Friday morning and got 108 comments, right? I mean, it’s worthy of your outrage, but it’s not really news to this audience.
Baud
@Yutsano:
I don’t get it. States would be irrelevant under a popular vote system.
I guess I think the main difference is that perhaps the Democratic candidate could be more aggressive in messaging if he/she didn’t have to worry about a few swing voters in key swing states.
Mr Stagger Lee
So who does the Los Zetas recommends?Seriously though, American media could learn from the Mexicans, actually doing news, though it causes a number of them to lose their lives.
Southern Beale
@Warren Terra:
Obviously I don’t or I wouldn’t have posted it.
Gawd. Shoot me before I strike again.
pseudonymous in nc
@Yutsano:
More to the point: the election would be decided by people, not by imaginary lines on a map.
jl
@Southern Beale:
Such impudence in the face of stern admonishment for breaking blog protocol, delivered with only your best interest in mind. This will have to be recorded in your permanent record, young lady.
Valdivia
@pseudonymous in nc:
what do you mean by jettison? that they are not allowed to vote?
while there is a very solid group of voters that would go for the PRD this time around, AMLO is just not the guy to deliver them anymore. There are younger people in that party that would be great leaders they have to be given a chance.
Javier
Porfirio Diaz, Mexico’s President/Dictator at the end of the 19th century, had a saying that translates to “Poor Mexico! So far from God, so close to the United States”.
As long as Mexico is what stands in between the US and it’s drugs, we will continue to have a drug war.
We don’t have Koch brothers or bankers. Our power players are drug lords.
Valdivia
@Javier:
do you think Calderon did right by taking them on militarily? I ask, because I am truly curious what people who suffer from both the drug lords and their violence and the military taking them on, not in a snarky way.
Southern Beale
@jl:
REBEL AGAINST AUTHORITY OR DIE
Or, ya know, don’t….
PeakVT
@Baud: I think having a direct popular vote would help Dems since there are more marginally attached Dem voters. Having every vote matter everywhere would pull in a few people that would have skipped voting in a non-competitive state in the current system.
pseudonymous in nc
@Valdivia:
By ‘jettison’, I mean those who head north (few vote as expatriates, regardless of their status in the US) could include sufficient PRD supporters to affect the result had they stayed in Mexico. There’s not much polling of Mexicans in the US, for obvious reasons; Pew’s survey in 2006 is probably the best of recent years, and said that roughly half of the expat population had no party affiliation, so it’s hard to extrapolate.
Point taken about AMLO: the closeness of the result in 2006 may have conveyed the right to a rematch, but six years is a long time in politics.
Baud
@PeakVT:
Good point.
Valdivia
@pseudonymous in nc:
The Economist has an article (bit dated since it’s from Feb) about how the expat Mexicans feel about the election. They are able to register and vote now, but apparently few do. So it’s not like anyone is preventing them from voting on purpose to throw the election to one party or another. I thin it’s also hard to know who and what these voters would be for. Living here probably gives them a different set of issues that matter to them (how their own issues as immigrants will be represented by the candidate, etc). So they may not track perfectly with the PRD.
I think AMLO could become the wise older man of the PRD if he wanted to, but he acts in ways that make it impossible, it seems to me. Not one politician has a ‘right’ to a rematch, also it would have never been a rematch because Calderon wasn’t on the ballot, and Peña Nieto is, as I have been saying what the future of Mexican politics looks like and AMLO looks like its past. And I don’t mean just looks, but that the PRD has a really deep bench to draw from and there is no reason to keep going to the guys from the past. See for example Cuauhtemoc Cardenas, his election was blatantly stolen in 1988–and it was a blatant thing, done the old way, not just suspicions because of the closeness like in 2006. He ran again in 2000 to get his rematch and while he may have been training his fire on the PRI the winner was the PAN which looked like the real change. And here we are once again, the PRD plays the same card–and lose, or it looks like they will lose. They need to go with the new generation, otherwise no matter how good their ideas, they will never win.
ETA: excuses for all the grammar mistakes today. Fingers not following orders. :)
Linda Featheringill
@Southern Beale:
Don’t you live in Tennessee? I thought maybe you had melted by now.
Javier
@Valdivia: There are a lot of different types of violence now. The cartels are like any organized crime Mafia (think the Mob in the 20’s and 30’s).
Their goal is money so they make it by selling drugs to the US (#1 source of income) and selling drugs here. Prostitution and extortion and kidnapping. This is direct violence to ordinary citizens.
The other violence has been what a lot of people have blamed Calderon for. Violence between the cartels and the Army. Violence between cartels caused by power vacuums caused by the drug war. This has created a lot of “collateral damage”.
And since the buck has to stop somewhere, Calderon has gotten the blame. In my opinion some of it he deserves.
The truth is, when it comes to the drug war, there is very little any of the candidates can do to change it. I don’t see a lot of difference between the candidates’ proposals when it comes to this issue.
Valdivia
Just to add a bit of humour. In one of the debates, no one paid attention to the candidates or the questions because the woman they hired to bring the questions to them was dressed rather provocatively. And that’s all everyone focused on. Even all the reports about it around the world.
video: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_XT1TR-SCr0
Southern Beale
@Linda Featheringill:
It was 109 degrees here yesterday.
Fucking June. If this is June I don’t want to know about August. It’s absofucking insane.
Valdivia
@Javier:
gracias mil por tu respuesta.
Yes all those ‘negative externalities’, to use the economists lingo, of drug production and exportation. Even when the violence of the army ‘succeeds’ like in Colombia or Peru the price is very high and the human rights abuses are terrible and unaccounted for for decades.
If only we actually talked on this end about legalization, but as you so rightly said, from the days of the Porfiriato: so close to the US, so far from god.
jl
@Valdivia:
Thanks.
The US should do that. People would pay more attention.
She probably knows more than our old news farts do, too.
The linked stroy says that the candidates ogled. Did the PAN lady ogle?
Southern Beale
Looks like Minnesota Republicans are sticking taxpayers with the legal fees for their sex scandal.
Of course.
Valdivia
@jl:
Can you imagine McCain?
I think the bigger problem was that it made something serious and important (specially for a country still proving its democratic bonafides) look like a joke, be the butt of a joke.
But as you say–given the level of our media, she probably does know more than David Gregory.
Valdivia
@Southern Beale:
of course! money for education? we don’t have it because we had to pay off a sexually harassed employee. gah.
jl
@Valdivia:
” Can you imagine McCain? ”
I did not think of that. Probably something deep in my brainstem blocked that thought.
As for making the political process look ridiculous, I don’t know. The problems of any country are serious enough to keep the participants serious, especially one with horrible violence and history of misfired development policies like Mexico.
Who would ridicule it the most? Probably the US which I would call ironic.
I have not traveled as much as some others here probably, but I have spent some time abroad, and I have found people in most countries to have a healthier sense of humor about themselves than we do in the US, and are better for it.
Edit: but I admit I am a partisan for Mexico, and admire the country, despite its problems. They can do what they want, I wouldn’t make fun. Hey, guess who is doing better on increasing women’s and oldsters life expectancy, than the US? And serious efforts at universal health coverage. Huh? Huh? I won’t make no fun.
Valdivia
@jl:
I do think it is healthy to be able to laugh at yourself, politically, as a country too. But for countries south of the border, always being called banana republics, it is a kind of a sore spot to have something like that happen midst a presidential debate.
But it was funny. First who thought it was a good idea to have a former bunny handing out the numbers. And second, she decided the dress was discreet because it was long, no matter how tight and open it was in her chest area. Classic.
jl
@Valdivia:
” But for countries south of the border, always being called banana republics, ”
You have to consider the source on attitudes like that. It’s us USians.
Any Canuckistanians here call anything south of the US a banana republic? I think the US is getting to close to being a banana empire to call other countries names.
Valdivia
@jl:
Oh the joke about this woman was heard around the world, not just here in the US. And I have heard many a non American call latin american countries banana republics.
Your point about the US becoming one, being in danger of it, is very well taken.
Now I feel I have to bust out some embarrassing music link so people can talk about whatever they want as DougJ was nice enough to post this thread and others may not be as absorbed by Mexican politics as I am!
Yutsano
@Southern Beale: Ohhh wifey is gonna be PISSED.
jl
@Valdivia:
” have to bust out some embarrassing music link ”
Do your worst, I have no fear. My sound still busted.
jl
@Yutsano:
I just searched for AsiangrrlMN’s blog to see what she had to say.
That did not turn out quite as I expected. I am doubtful that the search can be acceptably refined.
You have a link to her blog?
Valdivia
@jl:
I don’t think this is embarassing and probably appropriate given the theme Clandestino by Mr Manu Chao himself. He is definitely one of my favorite spanish musicians.
jl
@Valdivia:
If I turn all the volume knobs and fiddle with the soundy things I don’t understand, I can kind of hear it. Sounds good, not embarassing at all. But can’t really hear it.
If people link to good music, I’ll have to check it out after I get the sound fixed.
Valdivia
@jl:
when you get a chance definitely check Manu Chao out. He is half Spanish (basque and galicia) and French. His music is very progressive, as are the causes he embraces (like this song about prostitution). But most importantly his music is great and if you ever get a chance to go to one of his shows, do it. It’s the best concert I ever went to when I lived in NYC. Brooklyn Summer Festival a few years ago, rain storm and all.
Yutsano
@jl: She blogs at ABL’s joint now. I don’t think she’s written this one up yet though.
Brachiator
@Valdivia:
it reminds me of the female weathercasters on some Spanish language stations, who seem to be selected for their voluptuousness even when they are dressed similarly to the woman in this story. Mayte Carranco and Jackie Guerrido are good examples, and are very popular on the YouTubes. I think one clip of Jackie has 6 million hits.
I’ve been a bit under the weather and have not followed this election closely. It’s too bad that the media is so myopic. The English language stations haven’t much covered it at all, apart from the drug war angle or narrow immigration issues. The Spanish language stations have better coverage, but either don’t have the resources to do English language coverage or don’t see the opportunity they might be missing.
One easy angle that has not got much coverage is what the election might mean for the development of Mexico’s oil resources.
Valdivia
@Brachiator:
If you ever watch a soccer game in Univision, they have something called Republica Deportiva, the guy who leads the program is always surrounded by a bunch of girls in tiny outfits called las Senadoras. Same idea as the weather casters but even more blatant. It is a very latin thing, but midst a presidential debate so out of place!
Univision (.) com will have the results tomorrow starting around 7-8. It is a pity it hasn’t been covered better. The Economist has been rather good with diaries and articles and a from the field interview with their correspondent the day the campaign closed this week.
The issue of oil is important as you said. PEMEX is sacred, so any attempt to infuse any foreign money will be looked at with a lot of reserve any hint of privatization is very much scoffed at, though always proposed by the usual suspects.
Yutsano
@Valdivia: PEMEX can stay as a national company as far as I’m concerned. But a more equitable distribution of oil wealth would help Mexico immensely. Not to mention bring up living standards and create a more equitable society.
Brachiator
A good article from the July 23 post from the Economist site on the major parties and issues.
http://www.economist.com/node/21557337
Yeah, out of place, but it is as though they just could not help themselves. I wonder if any of the Italian national elections were anything like this?
Valdivia
@Yutsano:
totally agree. I think they could do what Chile did with their copper revenues which was to create an education rainy day fund, during the commodity boom in the last few years. The guy who proposed it, Andres Velasco is a young economist who was Minister of Finance and who will probably one day will be President of Chile. The model could be used not just for education but for a slew of investments the country needs.
Valdivia
@Brachiator:
It was exactly my thought when I saw it. Total Berlusconni move.
I have been following the Economist’s coverage and I think they are the best in English. Good summaries and they have someone on the ground. Not some guy from central casting in London or NY telling us what they think (like the FT’s summary done by the Rachman guy)
Brachiator
@Yutsano:
A number of dilemmas here. The law prevents most private or foreign investment in the industry, but oil production and the development of reserves are declining, and there is not much in the way of investment in exploration, modernization, safety or alternative resources. On top of this you have powerful forces that prevent revenues from being more widely distributed, a problem that exists in a number of countries with significant levels of oil production.
Valdivia
@Yutsano:
@Brachiator:
One reason Calderon could never get anything done regarding PEMEX is that the required congressional majorities were never there. Also, any redistribution done by the PRI if they win will have to be transparent in the form of programs held accountable given the history of corruption.
Ok. I’m off to sleep. So glad there were people interested, we got a nice discussion going. G’night!
Yutsano
@Brachiator: Oh I knew it wouldn’t be easy. And it does feel a bit like I’m being the superior smug Yanqui trying to tell them what to do with their lives. I’m really just musing more than anything. It will be fascinating to watch the changes over the next six years.
Quincy
@Valdivia:
No, thanks to you (and DougJ) for the thread. I, having paid no attention to Mexican politics like any true American, found it quite edifying. It’s nice to take an occasional break from discussing the most recent example of Republican idiocy.
Linda Featheringill
The post is new but the comments are from last night.
jwb
@Linda Featheringill: I’m pretty sure it’s the same post from last night, only re-time-stamped and with added content.
jl
@efgoldman:
‘Tis just another example of the wonderful magick of blogdom.
cathyx
I can come late and still have the first comment. Oh yeah!
Valdivia
@efgoldman:
he was nice enough to re-post since it was the wrong day.
Thank you Doug!
I can now report that the PRD (left) candidate totally romped for the Mayorship of Mexico City. They held it with another candidate before.
Valdivia
If things hold as they are Peña Nieto will win with over 50% of the vote. But I am not sure how the reporting will continue and if the percentage of votes counted on the site are reliable.
PeakVT
Since a win for Peña is a forgone conclusion, I guess control of Congress is what everyone is waiting to find out.
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
Yes. Though if those numbers hold it is impressive since he truly romped everyone else.
Also important to look at the States. It seems the PRI got quite a few Governorships. I will try and make a list as soon as I find a more reliable wonky site to get those numbers.
ETA: the Univision site is being bizarre with the numbers. Fist they had them at 64% reporting now they are down to 2% reporting. Weird.
General Stuck
All I know, from keeping up with the insane violence in Mexico over the drug trade, that parts of Mexico are rapidly becoming ungovernable turning border towns like Juarez into war zones, with the kind of violence that Al Quaida might blush at. The Zetas are a scary bunch, well trained at the top from being Mexican Special Forces, and highly tech savy. And just off the charts for brutality.
I don’t know what else can be done, other than declaring all out war against them by the Mexican state and its leaders. It would be nice if we legalized most drug use in this country, that might have the effect of us needing less prisons, and saving Mexico to boot.
Valdivia
@General Stuck:
Up top Javier (Mexican citizen and poll worker) gave a really honest answer about all the violence. Legalization seems to be the only way.
Somehow I find myself kind of exicted to see what this PRI guy can accomplish. He is young and of a different kind of mold than the usual party guy it would seem, though not perfect of course.
http://twitter.com/#!/jorgeramosnews/
Seems to have the best up to date info along with Univision.
General Stuck
@Valdivia:
I think that’s right, as I don’t think America will give up its appetite for drugs. legal or illegal.
PeakVT
Here’s the official preliminary results site.
Valdivia
@General Stuck:
it’s interesting when I use to teach Latin American politics to freshmen I use to have one lesson on the Drugs Issue and the best discussion was about legalization. Surprising how many of them refused to acknowledge how consumption here affects other countries.
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
thanks I am having issues loading that probably because it’s so mobbed.
This is interesting too. The Mexican Electoral Institute YouTube Channel.
jl
thanks for links, DougJ, they were very useful.
Wiki says Mexico already legalized small quantities of recreational drugs (Legality of cannabis, in Wikipedia). Edit: in 2009! I did not know that.
But that won’t solve the problem.
PeakVT
FYWP doesn’t like the link for some reason, but See-N-N Mexico has some governor results on its home page.
Valdivia
@jl:
the PRD guy from Mexico City legalized gay marriage too. In deep catholic country!
Valdivia
Randomly I have to say that watching the Electoral Institute in action is amazing. They are holding a public meeting that is televised reviewing everything that went wrong, all the complaints, all very civilized and with data. Just wow!
Brachiator
A manifesto of one of the indigenous organizations, backing Obrador in the current elections.
http://icrindia.wordpress.com/2012/06/29/mexican-election-chiapas-communities-in-the-lacandon-jungle-define-their-position/
The drug war in Mexico gets some attention in the US media. The oppression of the indigenous populations, almost none.
A good reminder also here that Mexico is not an ethnic monolith; many indigenous people, both in the US and Mexico, would reject being labelled as either Latino or Hispanic.
AA+ Bonds
It is pretty LOL to see America suddenly discover(!) the PRI and conclude that they were the Soviets or something “back in the day”
Not great guys but Jesus, people don’t like reading, do they
jl
@Valdivia:
So who will be the backward North American country soon?
And it was the conservative party PAN that (so I understand) made a big push for better health care and better access.
I don’t know anything about the politics of it, maybe there is a lot to the story I don’t know. But some good things have happened in Mexico’s population health statistics recently.
If you are a Latin American politics teach, you should drop a reliable link or two in the comments on what is up in Central America, when you are in the mood. It is very difficult to keep track of what is going on there. I would read them.
AA+ Bonds
PAN are exactly what the fuck they seem like: reactionary bloodsuckers; we knew that then and we know that now
But they were “our people” and of course American liberals rarely try to make sense of domestic politics in other countries
Kind of like how they fly back and forth on Putin/Russia depending on what the State Department tells the idiot press pool that week
Valdivia
@jl:
Central America is hard to keep track of as one region because it has 6 very different countries each one with different politics, challenges and institutions. I am happy to put some links up but I am going to need to hunt for them first. Hmmm if only there was a blog that could do that on a daily basis I muse to myself! ;)
It is true that under the PAN there was expansion not just of access to healthcare but also the Progresa program that gives poor parents a monthly stipend (via debit card) to keep kids in school (like the Brazilian program Bolsa Scola). the PAN is weird, some factions in it are rabidly catholic and others are just business oriented and couldn’t care less about religion. But the Mexican idea of what the social contract is is vastly different than ours here. Their constitution from 1917 is one of the most progressive ever and it predated the one from the Russian Revolution!
AA+ Bonds
and for the love of SHIT why the FUCK would you trust the Economist on this
AA+ Bonds
Rule 1: never trust the Economist about goddamned anything
Valdivia
@AA+ Bonds:
Actually no, the PAN is not all just that. And for a very long time, when the PRI was corrupt and didn’t let any other parties participate in elections these were the guys actually trying to get the system to be more accountable. Just because they are on the right doesn’t mean they are just like Republicans. Talk about projecting American politcs into the guys next door.
AA+ Bonds
Look I will show you how to create the Economist in your very own home:
1) Write on one side of a coin: “moderate reformer”
2) Write on the other side: “radical dictator”
3) Flip coin and cover with hand
4) Dial up a random asshole at Barclays and ask him what he’d prefer the coin to say; discard coin without looking at it
Brachiator
An interesting movie playing in Mexico, which provides some historical background which has some resonance with respect to the current election.
http://www.economist.com/blogs/prospero/2012/06/new-film-colosio-el-asesinato
From the article:
ON A sunny Tijuana evening in 1994, Mexico’s president-in-waiting was assassinated. Luis Donaldo Colosio was shot in the head at point-blank range as he made his way through a crowd of supporters, barely three months before a July presidential election that he was certain to win. The gunman, Mario Aburto Martínez, was arrested on the spot and confessed to the crime. The official investigation reported that he had acted alone.
Few people in Mexico believe that. Conspiracy theories abound, pointing the finger at Tijuana drug-traffickers and rival politicians in Colosio’s Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI), which was not afraid to use occasional deadly violence during its seven decades in power, which ended in 2000. Now, as the PRI looks likely to take back the presidency in an election on July 1st, a fictionalised account of Colosio’s murder is causing Mexican cinemagoers to think twice about the party that ran the country during the turbulent 1990s.
“Colosio: The Murder” begins with the fatal shooting in Tijuana, and follows Andrés Vázquez, a fictitious detective who is commissioned to lead a mysterious secret investigation in parallel to the official one. As the official probe becomes a whitewash, its leader blackmailed by PRI officials, Andrés realises that the lone-gunman theory doesn’t add up. Who are the mysterious men in the crowd looking on calmly as Colosio walks to his death? Why was the crime scene apparently tampered with? Who raided the Tijuana police station, stealing vital evidence? As the case takes shape, witnesses are murdered one by one until Andrés realises that he is also in danger.
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
for some reason I can’t get that link to work at all. Haz a sad.
@Brachiator:
Interesting to note that they endorsed a candidate because at other points they haven’t always wanted to participate int he system.
There is also a regional aspect, the South being more purely ethnically indigenous and the North less so. But in mexico the great thing is that every mexican is truly a mestizo, a mix of indian and spaniard, even if in the telenovelas they all look lilly white. That is what made Diego Rivera great, he represented the Mexican people as they were/
AA+ Bonds
@Valdivia:
Take it back to 101, please – you are literally the only person in this exchange(?) talking about the Republicans
I repeat: we knew then and know now that the PAN are reactionary bloodsuckers
I could not care less about their attempts, successful and not, to pry open the political system and slither inside
AA+ Bonds
You are hardly going to see me defending the neoliberal shithead PRI “reformers” either, if you will allow me to burn the strawman before you begin spluttering and staggering towards it
PeakVT
FYWP will take this link to See-N-N, for some reason.
ETA: The official non-official result site shows 1% of the presidential vote counted (and reported).
Valdivia
@AA+ Bonds:
you know what? You are obviously not interested in having an actual discussion just repeating over and over the same thing without ever engaging. Why even try to talk when you already made up your mind?
The fact that you couldn’t care less that the PAN is actually the party that successfully transitioned mexico to democracy in 2000 tells me everything I need to know.
I am sure you would say the same about the Chilean Christian Democrats who won the election against Pinochet but because their party is on the right they are useless?
AA+ Bonds
Christ, it’s like the Economist Ur-subhead
How the hell do you people get fooled by this bullshit year after year as applied to every goddamn country on Earth by this dwindling pool of hacks
Valdivia
@PeakVT:
Great, thanks.
AA+ Bonds
@Valdivia:
Pfffft hahahahaha okay, now I see why the Economist is so hot in here
Aligns perfectly with this bullshit from the article:
The inherent contradictions that cause liberal defeat are right here – Gore couldn’t be Obrador because then the Economist would give FROWNY FACE
And the LOL ball here is really that Obrador is a right-wing social democrat; unlike the Economist’s shit twits, Mexicans are a little more aware of what it would actually mean for an internal force to “declare war” on Mexico’s government and institutions
jl
@Valdivia:
” Hmmm if only there was a blog that could do that on a daily basis I muse to myself! ;) ”
Probably a little too polite for BJ, but if you submitted something and promised to comment while drinking, could work.
On bloodsucking monster versus nuance of PAN.
On public health I will go with nuance.
The economic wreckage the followed NAFA in some sectors, that hit the lesser people, I think there might have (Edit: now that I think about it, that “might have been” is academic for ” were”, BTW) been bloodsuckers at work with bad intentions, but not sure who was responsible for what.
But looks like PAN is losing. Hope our
conservativesreactionaries do likewise in the next election.Valdivia
@PeakVT:
this is good, from one of the local newspapers, through the IFE (electoral Institute)
http://gruporeforma.reforma.com/libre/offlines/prep2012/ife/?pxs=1
pseudonymous in nc
Exit polls all put Peña Nieto over 40%, with AMLO around 30% and Vázquez Mota around 25%. So, back to the future with the PRI.
AA+ Bonds
IS MODERATE REFORM REMAINS TO BE SEEN? TUNE IN NEXT DISGRACEFUL RADICAL TO YOUR ECONOMIST COMMENTARY ON THE WORLDS AND STUFF.
jl
@pseudonymous in nc: thanks, that is the best English report can get too. Nothing on Congress, though.
Valdivia
@jl:
I am pretty happy that the PAN lost because not only are they not my cup of tea politically, after 12 years they didn’t have much to show for their tenure except for giving the system and the State the chance to function democratically after it had been used as an extension of the PRI for 70 plus years. That is not nothing. And they also continued with a lot of social programs that had begun in the late 90s (like Progresa) and took a very active role in being a voice for their immigrants here in the US (an issue that a lot of people simply ignore, how the Mexican government began after 2000 to actively try and protect and lobby for their citizens here int he US).
We have to remember that NAFTA was the baby of the PRI not the PAN so if there were bloodsuckers they were mostly the old guard from that party who made out like bandits in the privatizations (see Slim, Carlos richest man in the world thanks to them). But then again, the basic idea of the social contract in Mexico is largely ingrained in the Constitution and their other institutions in a deeper way than here.
Valdivia
@pseudonymous in nc:
yep. How back and how to the future remains to be seen and will depend on Congress. I am happy to see the PRD guy win in the DF. They have a really deep bench, it is time they started playing it.
@jl:
in the Reforma link you can choose the state and look at local results too. If I figure out a way to get the congressional make up I will throw the link in here.
ETA: at the same link there are congressional results in tabs
jl
@Valdivia: thanks, that is useful. I figured my Spanish is so bad now it would be no use, but, with the symbols and map colors, easy to follow.
Valdivia
@jl:
you’re welcome. It is a pretty good layout I thought.
Brachiator
@AA+ Bonds:
No, you don’t see at all. The Economist stuff is good as a summary or starting point, but no one is claiming that they are the best or the final word on Mexico.
Unfortunately, other sources, such as the Guardian or NPR are useless. Equally useless is the condescending and inaccurate noodling at most English language socialist or supposedly revolutionary sights.
The best material is going to be Spanish language sources, but what would be the point, since this would be incomprehensible to most people here?
As an aside, I noted a while back that the impeachment and replacement of the president of Paraguay was totally off the radar of practically all Balloon Juicers, which I think only underscores the difficulty in paying attention to international news, no matter what sources you want to praise or knock.
Valdivia
@Brachiator:
Indeed. The Lugo impeachment has been burning up all the Latin American papers this week specially since there was a MercoSur meeting and it brought the larger regional dynamics in play into conflict. But even I, who reads that stuff everyday, couldn’t really bother to talk about it here since it all becomes reductive about what the US role is in it, or what side they will take etc etc. These countries exist and are interesting on their own, not just as props or projections of the US political system!
/rant over.
BruinKid
Read this incredibly depressing piece in the New Yorker about the drug war spreading into formerly peaceful areas of Mexico, and it looks like that none of the candidates are anywhere clean when it comes to the drug trade. Because if they really were, they’d have been murdered already.
Valdivia
@BruinKid:
that is a very very depressing but great article. One of the links above does lead to an article about the point you make that none of the candidates really engaged this in any real way.
I may go to sleep now and wake up to see if the PRI is back in charge tomorrow am.
Valdivia
it’s official now PRI is back in. For me the winner was the IFE who made this a very transparent election. Good on them.
MomSense
If you go to the narco news facebook page or narconews.com people are posting photos. Someone snapped a photo of some poll workers filling out ballots for PRI.
Narco news has been one of the organizing sites for yo soy 132.
Valdivia
@MomSense:
if you read the post by Javier above, he explains how the poll workers are randomly selected. Each party had a presence as observers also in all the electoral precincts. And the IFE has been tracking all the complaints. I really think you have to take the accusations of the election being stolen with a grain of salt because even the PRD (though not Lopez Obrador) accepted that the election was clean even with the problems that have been reported.
ETA: this link though in spanish gives one a sense of what was a problem, intimidation from gangs and vote buying, but not massive scale fraud
http://mexico.cnn.com/nacional/2012/07/02/robo-de-material-electoral-y-compra-de-votos-las-irregularidades
PeakVT
Well, it wasn’t a blowout. 38% for PRI, 32% for PRD, 25% for PAN, and 2% for the lecher with the mustache.
I don’t understand the legislative results because the PRI seems to be on two lines: PRI, and PRI/Verde. If they cooperate, the PRI should have a healthy majority in Congress. The PRD actually got more votes than PRI/Verde, but the latter won quite a few more seats (122 vs 71). That is because of blowout numbers in DF, I guess.