(Jim Morin via GoComics.com)
__
Which has to be chafing the man’s temple garments something fierce, since he’s always been able to clobber his opponents into submission via superior funding-power. But here’s John Cassidy, in the New Yorker, on the limits of Romney’s cash advantage:
…If November’s electorate were confined to millionaires and billionaires, Romney would be a shoo-in. Unfortunately for him, even the G.O.P.’s best efforts to suppress voter turnout through the introduction of voter I.D. laws and the like won’t prevent many less-wealthy Americans from ambling along to their local polling station and pulling the lever. Which means that the Mittster is also going to have to ingratiate himself with the regular folk, something he’s never been particularly adept at.
Rove and Stuart Stevens, the sometime novelist and bon vivant who is Romney’s campaign manager, may be hoping that they can spend their way to victory, burying President Obama under an avalanche of negative ads, but in their heart of hearts they know they can’t. In today’s politics, money is a necessary condition for success, but it’s by no means sufficient. From Steve Forbes in 1996 to Meg Whitman in 2010 and Rick Perry last year, the political landscape is littered with the detritus of well-funded campaigns that self-destructed because the candidate wasn’t up to it, the opposition was too strong, or the objective conditions were unfavorable.
Right now, Romney is in grave danger of joining the list of money-rich candidates who ended up as roadkill. Look at the polling data. According to the Real Clear Politics poll of polls, Obama is up about three and a half per cent in the national race, his biggest lead in quite a while. At the state level, the numbers are even more worrying for the G.O.P. Just last week, Rove himself acknowledged that Ohio and Colorado, two key swing states, had moved from “toss up” to “lean Obama,” and that Florida, North Carolina, and Virginia, three states Romney desperately needs, were still too close to call. If the Republican candidate doesn’t win Florida and at least two of three from North Carolina, Ohio, and Virginia, it is very difficult to see him getting two hundred and seventy votes in the Electoral College.
Reflecting this reality, the betting markets are pointing to an Obama victory. At Ladbrokes, the British bookmaker, the President is now the prohibitive 2/5 favorite—meaning you have to bet fifty dollars to win twenty. Romney is a 2/1 outsider, suggesting that the probability of him winning is just thirty-three per cent. At Intrade, the political prediction site, the implied probability of a Romney triumph is a bit higher—about forty per cent—but I pay more attention to the bookies, where more real money gets wagered, sometimes by political insiders.
Yes, there are three months left until the election, but Romney badly needs to arrest his decline. With Harry Reid and the Democrats still pounding him about his taxes and memories of his disastrous overseas trip still fresh, he simply has to change the narrative. He still has an opportunity to do it, but it’s short one: about three and a half weeks, in fact. By the time he leaves Tampa on the morning of Friday, August 30th, he needs to have articulated a sharper message, picked a decent running mate, and established some sort of emotional connection with the American public. If he hasn’t succeeded in all of these tasks, President Obama will be heading for victory as he and his party gather in Charlotte the following week…
Tick… tick… tick…
AA+ Bonds
Tom65
And then Andrea Saul goes and reminds everyone about Romneycare.
You’d think he could afford a smarter campaign team.
Scott S.
@Tom65: The Romney campaign is the Gang that Couldn’t Shoot Straight.
Villago Delenda Est
The more people learn about Dubya OvenMitt Rmoney, the more they despise him.
Gex
Can’t we just get one goddamn journalist to ask Romney to his face if he took the 2009 exemption? Can any media outlet put that out as a question that needs to be answered? I’d be willing to let him hide his tax returns if we can get an honest, verifiable answer on that.
We deserve to know if Mr. Romney’s name was on the list of felony tax evaders who got away with it.
BGinCHI
Seriously, if Harry Reid is handing you your ass without even trying, you’re in deep shit. I like Reid OK, but he’s no political genius kung fu artist no matter what TPM says.
I hope Mitt picks Ryan for VP so he can get exposed as well.
beltane
@Tom65: Romney doesn’t like to be surrounded by people who are smarter than he is, therefore it was inevitable that his campaign team would be made up of idiots.
Meanwhile, Andrea Saul is causing wingnut heads to explode all over the internet. The cleanup will be costly http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/08/08/1118048/-RedState-in-Panic-This-May-Be-The-Moment-That-Just-Cost-Romney-The-Election
Roger Moore
@Tom65:
Afford, yes. Tolerate, no. One of Mitt’s biggest problems is that he doesn’t want to be upstaged, and he sees having subordinates who are better than he is as a risk of being upstaged. This is the same guy who fired his successful debate coach because the coach got credit for his improved debate performance rather than Mitt. It’s not an environment that develops a smart, capable team.
Ben Franklin
I suspect there will be some personnel changes in the Romney camp. The limp=wristed response to the attack ads is making the conservatives crazy. I expect Rove will sell his wares to Mitt, and then the fight begins.
c u n d gulag
@Tom65:
Romney and his campaign play politics the way the Democrats usually do – badly!
I’m starting to wonder if some clever Democrats didn’t foist this ‘Mittchurian Candidate’ on the Republicans sometime back in the 80’s?
I heard that Rush’s fat head was about to explode today.
And think of the casualties of that!
OH… THE HUMANITIES!
Speaking of which, Rush looks like a Manatee – only not as smart. Or good looking.
Linda Featheringill
@beltane:
Andrea Saul:
I understand that Rush was sputtering with frustration.
Studly Pantload, the emotionally unavailable unicorn
Which apparently has almost the entire right wing commentariate doing a mass spit take.
Time for a quickie staff meeting.
“Say it with me now, everyone: THE FIRST RULE ABOUT ROMNEYCARE IS, WE NEVER TALK ABOUT ROMNEYCARE! THE FIRST RULE ABOUT ROMNEYCARE IS, WE NEVER TALK ABOUT ROMNEYCARE! THE FIRST RULE ABOUT ROMNEYCARE IS…”
Jay C
Also. it probably (IMHO, anyway) will be as much as issue for Romney, of “hurdles to clear” as much as “windows of opportunity”. Mainly, the conventions – trainwrecks must be avoided – and the debates (in which I think President Obama will have a considerable advantage); and what Democrats must hope will be a concerted nationwide ad campaign by the President’s team: stressing, one would hope, the vacuum at the heart of Republican policies. Which void is, peculiarly, Mitt-shaped….
rikyrah
I thought it was from The Onion. I really did.
I’m just stunned.
I heard about it a few hours ago and still can’t believe it.
Villago Delenda Est
@Linda Featheringill:
Damn, there goes my Schadenfreude meter, again!
David Koch
Sandra Fluke campaigning with Black Metrosexual Abe Lincoln
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/0c1p0dD5Yzbdh/x610.jpg
Wow, she’s got a pretty nice figure.
Linda Featheringill
@Roger Moore:
Good point. Does Mitt want to protect his ego or does he want to be President?
Man, this guy is fragile! What’s he going to do during the last six weeks or so of the campaign, when things really get rough? When nobody gets enough sleep? When every time you take a deep breath it’s reported on the news? When candidates often don’t even pretend to be polite to each other?
beltane
The best thing Mitt Romney could do is to fire himself ASAP.
japa21
The mere fact that Obama is actually widening his lead (Reuters latest has him at 49-42) at a time when Romney should be closing in is a really bad sign for Romney.
Most of the potential electorate still isn’t paying attention and won’t until after Labor Day. And the overall conventional wisdom is that the more people know Romney, the less they like him.
Ruckus
@Roger Moore:
Also sort of lays waste to the mime that mittens was not involved at bain. He can not seem to have anyone else make decisions or be anything other than a yes man. An idiot micromanaging an entire country. That’s a sobering thought. To say the least.
Davis X. Machina
@Linda Featheringill:
He has staff for that stuff. And he’ll fire them if they cock up. This is what “run the government like a business” really means.
...now I try to be amused
@beltane:
As the saying goes, first-rate managers hire first-rate people, and second-rate managers hire third-rate people.
Mitt is another W in that respect.
4tehlulz
Romney just enjoys stepping on his own dick.
Villago Delenda Est
Way easier said than done, when facing the wiley near sheriff.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Personally I get the feeling Mitten’s campaign is just about on the edge of implosion. Look at this week, they started t but keeping Mitten’s tax return in the news all weekened, then they flubbed a counter attack against Obama’s “Romneyhood”, confused “sheik” with “Sikh”, found time to insult the Jews, then when on to claim that Obama is betraying the legacy of Bill Clinton by using Newt Grinich as a spokestoad and now this Romneycare flub.
It’s only Wednesday.
wrb
@Tom65:
Just as the right wingers were starting to show signs of fury over having such a flawed candidate foisted on them.
Lovely
Lovely
Ruckus
@4tehlulz:
Wonder if he plays golf a lot. Bet those spikes smart a bit.
Violet
Horse race–Boring
Romney is a failure, can he be replaced?–Interesting
I expect the Villager discussion to begin to change now that the Olympics are nearing their end. Romney failure/Republican chaos is much better for ratings than this sad horse race narrative they keep trying to sell.
Dennis SGMM
@Villago Delenda Est:
Ha! Don’t we wish. First, he’s not a Democrat. Second, “He’s a successful businessman,” so he’ll be able to turn that ol’ economy around toot sweet. Third, he’s white.
We despise Romney because we pay a bit of attention. The majority of the electorate doesn’t. All they know is that that darky in the White House hasn’t made things any better. This is far from being over. Even if Obama’s Electoral College-Fu puts him back in the WH he may well lose the popular vote. While that was not seen by the other side as depriving G.W. Bush of the authority of the presidency they will never extend that same courtesy to Obama.
4tehlulz
@Violet: I know I’ll be watching that. I’ve been looking for some decent comedy to watch.
Ben Franklin
@Roger Moore:
This is the same guy who fired his successful debate coach because the coach got credit for his improved debate performance rather than Mitt.
I can visualize him chewing on the carpet.
Davis X. Machina
63% of us seem to think so…
Villago Delenda Est
@wrb:
Which means the dust on the etch-a-sketch gets deeper, as Rmoney must work, yet again, to keep the base placated.
All these unforced errors are adding up to a fleet of fail.
22over7
Using Newt as your spokesmodel is a sure sign of impending doom. Nobody likes Newt, and nothing he says is taken seriously. Is Mitt so scared of losing the 27%? If that’s the case, just get Wayne LaPierre and Sarah Palin on the trail!
Anyway, I want to be a bon vivant. According to my dic, it’s a person who has cultivated, refined, and sociable tastes esp. in respect to food and drink. I’ll only drink Pabst if it’s on tap. Is that good enough?
jl
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
” claim that Obama is betraying the legacy of Bill Clinton by using Newt Grinich as a spokestoad ”
Using the pompous and daft Gingrich is already paying dividends. Not sure if I got the timing right, but yesterday Bill Clinton issues statement essentially calling Mitt a liar. Today Lil’ Newtie comes out and, speaking in his capacity of wise historian, announces that Obama betrayed what Clinton did.
I think worries that Bill C’s statement would get lost can be laid to rest.
Let’s see, Newt versus Big Dawg, who will the public believe?
kindness
Wait a minute! This thread is missing something. Oh!
No one is bagging on Democrats! Wassa matter? Don’t you like Dems no more? From reading BJ I figured the new ‘in’ way to express your support was to write about what liars and immoral people they are. Then I turn around and read this thread.
Hill Dweller
@Ben Franklin: Rove has been coordinating with Willard all along. It was Rove/Fox that tee’d up the ‘you didn’t build that’ nonsense for Willard.
This latest welfare attack was tee’d up by Fox/Rubin at WaPo/Rove/wingnut blogs. Willard, out of desperation, amplified the attack.
Willard wants others to do the dirty work, because his approval rating is in the shitter. But he keeps making mistake after mistake, forcing him to amplify existing attacks in hopes of changing the subject.
Everything in that party is centrally coordinated.
David Koch
I tell ya, Sandra Fluke would make a great candidate.
http://cache.daylife.com/imageserve/09i94XRgGlaKC/610x.jpg
She has a lot of charisma.
I never got the Darcy Burner thing. Her positions were fine, but as a speaker Burner lacked presence. But Fluke really knows how to deliver the goods.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@jl:
First, let us take a moment to ponder with awe the utter irony of the man who lead the impeachment of Bill Clinton appointing himself the defender of Clinton’s political legacy.
trollhattan
@Roger Moore:
Fired, yes, but only after first tackling him and cutting off his hair. By November we’re going to stop thinking of Walnuts as such a headcase, in comparison to Willard. Political aspirations finally killed, he’ll have to satisfy himself figuring out how to spend all that money before the grim reaper calls.
jl
@Violet: Romney is vague and nonresponsive is also a meme I have noticed increasingly in corporate media.
I like that trend.
The wingnut rules of debate, evidence, fair argumentation, etc. have grown far too baroque and ad hoc. It may be harder to navigate all the wingnut jargon and code and rules they insist upon than it is to do a few minutes of actual research work, or work at all. It is like trying to learn a new insanely complex ancient religious ritual for each new issue, and for each new insane toddler-worthy wingnut PR angle.
So, what is a corporate news and analysis media celeb to do? Resort to Mitt stereotypes. Vague, artificial, unresponsive, awkward, etc.
I like it.
jl
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
There are complex intersections, on multiple levels, of total Fail in the help Lil’ Newt provided for Mitt today. I like it.
Amir Khalid
A big ego, by itself, isn’t a bad thing in a presidential candidate. I mean, if you didn’t have a big ego you wouldn’t even think about being President, let alone commit to a run, right?
But I think a good part of Mitt’s big ego is a deep-seated insecurity. The insecurity that makes him a micro-managing boss, because he can’t bear not to have the final say on everything. That makes him so afraid of being upstaged by the help that he fires the debate coach for competence. That makes him demand to be indemnified against the risk of his own failure at Bain Capital, because he cannot face the humiliation of failure. That makes him telegraph his punches, so that he has never won an election against a capable opponent.
Brachiator
There are few things more inane than the insistence by some journalists and pundits that politics is nothing more than narratives and messages.
How is Romney going to change himself? That’s the freakin problem. Not some goddam narrative.
Between this thread and a couple of others, it’s a weird literary theory meme. Romney keeps telling some never ending story of lies, obfuscations and denials, and media hacks keep sucking it up, like the prince in A Thousand and One Nights, waiting for the next story.
But there is not much mystery here. Mittens is all bluster and desperation, clingling foolishly to prideful privilege. Here is a man who has demanded that his opponents release their (or their spouse’s) tax returns, but who insists that he is above the precedent in transparency set by his own father. Here is a man who gaffes on a Thursday and then straight up denies that he said anything the very next day before the same pool of reporters.
In a sane universe, even the most bored media hack would laugh Romney off the stage. But then again, we have a media who accepted the idea that Sarah Palin was a serious candidate for federal office.
Roger Moore
@Ruckus:
ITYM “an idiot trying to micromanage an entire country”. The ugliness is that he would fail but be unable to let anyone else do anything important. Heaven help us if two big things came up at once.
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
There’s also the conflation of “simple” and “easy”. Losing weight is simple- you just have to eat fewer calories than you burn- but everyone knows it’s hard to actually do it. Yes, Mitt just has to change the narrative to make it about Obama mismanaging the economy rather than about Mitt’s personal failings. That’s simple on paper but not actually easy to do when Obama and the Democrats are fighting back.
Ben Franklin
@Hill Dweller:
Everything in that party is centrally coordinated
Then, I thank the Gods.
hells littlest angel
If Romney went broke, he wouldn’t have a friend in the world, and Ann would be out the door looking for a man who could keep her in ponies.
folsom ca
I believe this man has never made a decision in his life that did not depend on lawyers, accountants, etc. He has too many cooks in the kitchen and his head must be exploding. He has always been a yes man, as long as the bottom line benefits him. He is like Me Irene and Myself, with Jim Carrey. A chameleon, and now his colors show.
gene108
I feel sorry for Mitt.
In a rational GOP he’d ride Romneycare to a strong showing in November. It’s the sort of centrist solution to national problems, like cap ‘n’ trade, Republicans used to propose.
He really could’ve been a halfway decent candidate, with finding ways to solve major problems with free market solutions as the theme of his campaign.
His Party just passed him by and he didn’t realize it and know when to quit.
TenguPhule
Ann would soon find herself on the way to the glue factory.
Face it, nobody wants a used broken down nag.
Dr. Loveless
@Violet:
This. The MSM may love a horse race, but they love a good train wreck even more.
Brachiator
@Roger Moore:
Good point.
Apparently, Romney has had some of the same people working for him from his earlier campaigns. So, another part of the problem here is that a lot of people are getting the narrative pretty clearly. Mittens is an clumsy, arrogant, prideful man who keeps slinging the same shit and thinks he can get away with it.
Instead of trying to get Romney to change the message, we should just take him at his self-contradictory word and move on to something more interesting.
Villago Delenda Est
@gene108:
No.
He could not. It’s true he’s got problems with the crazies, but his major problem is that he can’t campaign. He comes across totally wrong. He alienates those who were at first inclined to support him.
Once you get to know him, you start to loathe him.
eemom
You know what is sweet?
That a year from now the entire negligible existence of Willard Mittens Romney will be not only forgotten, but buried under 9 months worth of geological ages of other news shit du jour.
hells littlest angel
@eemom: Four years ago, I said exactly that about Palin.
Catsy
@hells littlest angel: And in Palin’s case it’s largely true. You might’ve noticed that she’s been rightfully relegated to irrelevant kook status by the media. Every now and then she pokes her head back up and says something stupid that generates a little coverage, but her time on the national stage has long since passed.
Took a little longer than 9 months, but I think we’ll see the same thing with Mittens.
xian
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: i know! if anything, the gaffes seem to be increasing exponentially. i really think the flywheels about to come off. what’s next? Romney announces his veep candidate is Grover Norquist?
rikyrah
@hells littlest angel:
bwa ha ha ha ha ha
brantl
And where could he pick a decent running mate? The only Democrat that would run with him is Lieberman, and the Republicans hate him… and all of the Republicans who could run with RMoney either hate him, or are hated by the base of the party.