What’s going on in Connecticut, the Land of Steady Habits, one of which has been voting for Democrats? Certified nutcase/embarrassment Linda McMahon has a 3 point lead in the latest Q poll, and Romney is within single digits in a state Obama carried by 22 points. Nate Silver thinks it’s the Greenwich hedge fund managers who are keeping Romney in the race. Any Connecticuters or Tri-staters want to weigh in?
Reader Interactions
70Comments
Comments are closed.
ant
Nate Silver has got a post up:
opps reading fail. link to Nate in the post already.
Schlemizel
Senator Mrs. WWE? That would be a thing of beauty and a joy forever – well on the way to a President Dwayne Elizondo Mountain Dew Herbert Camacho.
As I recall he was a wrestling champ before entering politics
TOP123
Linda Certified Nutcase/Embarrassment (I like that!) McMahon has, like Romney, been running continually for election since her last wipeout, and has a lot of name recognition. Also, her ads portray her as a very, very sensible moderate ‘job creator’. The last one I noticed was also chock full of women and minorities and minority women, many of whom I suspect might not be actual Republican voters.
The Wall St./637 effect is present, sure–Jim Himes (of such extraction himself, but with a D after his name) talks about deficit reduction constantly. I would still be very, very surprised if Obama did not absolutely massacre Romney in Conn. come November.
Edited for date accuracy…
J.
I don’t know anyone who likes Linda McMahon, but she’s done a heck of a job of portraying Murphy as a slacker. (I’m going to vote for him, but only because I can’t stand McMahon — but that says something.) Plus there are a lot of hedge fund and money managers here in Fairfield County who only begrudgingly voted for Obama last time, and are afraid he’s going to raise their taxes if he gets re-elected — and see Romney as someone who would never do that.
gene108
When I see polls like this, I just want Republicans to take over.
I can go through my closets and find the best card board box I have to live in for my future and let society fall off a cliff.
I do not understand how Republicans can appeal to anyone other than those, who benefit from their policies, such as the very rich.
Anya
This tells me all I need to know about the reliability of these polls. I think they’re over sampling republicans/hedg fund managers. No way in hell Connecticut is that close.
TOP123
@J.: Yep, many of the ones I know pulled the ripcord on the GOP in that election after Sarah Palin, but they’re probably heading back this time. I guess Blue Eyes seems a safer lunatic for their money. Still not worried about this state, but our EVs aren’t really likely to be the deal maker/breaker either way.
CT Resident
Murphy hasn’t spent much on ads and has been strangely passive so far in the campaign. It could turn out to be one of those awful Scott Brown moments. The state, while blue for presidential races, frequently elects moderate republicans to statewide and congressional offices. We have a very small minority population outside the cities, and Republicans poll pretty well in my semi-rural suburban town. Door to door white people around here. The demographics can be very favorable to republicans.
McMahon’s new TV ads portray her as a moderate republican. She’s not doing the whole nutjob tea party rap, and oddly enough, the CT teabaggers aren’t as nutty as their brethren in other states. They are willing to support a moderate republican even if she’s not promising to be ideologically poor after the election. This is surprising, because usually you can count on them to shoot themselves in the foot.
WereBear
There’s more to life than money. Such as, having self-justifying group approval for your omnipresent sense of butthurt.
CaptServo
She’s got a ton of advertisements pushing on Murphy, he’s got next to nothing. Also all of her dirty laundry got aired out last cycle, and Murph is not nearly as strong a candidate as Blumenthal was. Blumenthal was a well regarded AG for 25 years, Murphy is just a guy with a D next to his name.
TOP123
Away from the computer for a minute just now and saw a McMahon ad in the interval. Her ads are all over the place. And as CT Resident says above, Conn. is happy to elect the (now actually extinct) New England Republican–though it says something that Chris Shays, who actually was one, lost to McMahon.
Shawn in ShowMe
From what I’ve read McMahon is just talking shit on the mic outside of the squared circle while Murphy glares at her from inside of the ring. But she can’t issue defaming press releases and dodge debates forever.
Elizabelle
$50 million in negative ads and braying that you have a jobs plan, while your Democratic opponent does not, can do a lot.
Maybe voters are suckers for “successful business” people, even if the underlying business doesn’t stand up well under scrutiny. (WWF, Bain.)
Hope Murphy gets his act together and gets coat tails from Obama.
cervantes
I indeed live in Connecticut. Basically, the Senate race has been about nothing but TV ads. Murphy had a contested primary and got started running ads against McMahon late. Meanwhile she’s been spending from her own gazillions to carpet bomb the airwaves with advertisements painting herself in a rosy light and trashing Murphy.
Otherwise, there has been essentially zero coverage of the Senate race by the local TV news — they just do crime stories — and no significant public events by either candidate. It’s 100% about the advertising, and Linda has more ads.
That’s all there is to it.
Culture of Truth
Just look at Romney – private equity, moderate Republican Governor of Mass, steady patriarchal businessman, uncomfortable around non-millionaires — the guy screams CONNECTICUT
Culture of Truth
and yes I know all about rural and urban CT, which is why he and Obama are close
Elizabelle
@cervantes:
How is the Democratic party ground game in Conn?
TOP123
@Elizabelle: Um, we had Joe Lieberman get elected as an independent. Ouch.
TOP123
@Culture of Truth: Oh, come on now, that is neither fair nor kind.
In fact, I always thought Mittens was rather the opposite–someone from a less established background trying desperately to fit in. If you need to harsh on us here, at least choose Geo. H.W. or WFB, who do fit the pattern, sadly… ;)
CaptServo
@Elizabelle:
There was a super nasty primary in the 5th district, which after DeLauro’s is the dem’s strongest. So a bunch of hurt feelings and not a lot of cooperation right now.
Culture of Truth
someone from a less established background trying desperately to fit in
But there are lots of people like that in CT; it’s not all old money
Someguy
@WereBear:
That really should be this blog’s motto.
shortstop
How the hell many hedge fund managers can there be? Is this really such a looming CT demographic? I get that they have way outsized cash and influence, but is the place overrun with them?
maurinsky
I keep pointing out on McMahon’s Facebook page that it doesn’t matter how moderate she is running, if she wants to be a Republican at the national level, she’s going to have to head to the wingnut hills if she wants to have any leverage in the Senate because the party has gone off the deep end. Murphy needs to step it up post-haste.
TK421
“Romney is within single digits in a state Obama carried by 22 points”
You mean those weirdos in Connecticut won’t vote for the guy who brought us executive assassination? What’s wrong with them?
TOP123
@maurinsky: There’s no such thing as moderate Republicanism any more, even here. The GOPers I know have Romney stickers on their cars. If it were Idi Amin, they’d have Amin stickers on their cars. The current Republican party is defined by ultra-loyalty to the brand. Everything else is irrelevant. It’s like Seinfeld–they’re rooting for the laundry.
Waldo
McMahon is currently outspending Murphy by a more than 3-1 margin. What her money has bought is much higher negatives for Murphy from 17% unfavorable in June to 30% now. That’s still below her own negatives, which went from 38% to 35%, so there’s cause for optimism.
My best guess: Nutmeggers come to their senses by Election Day and Obama crushes Romney like he did McCain — giving Murphy the boost that puts him over the top.
gene108
@TK421:
Romney’s going to tone down any of the police state policies Bush, Jr. and Obama put in place?
I think you have the wrong reason for CT being closer this year than in 2008.
SteveM
Fucking liberals up here in the Northeast are too fucking polite to treat any and all members of the Republican Party with the contempt and revulsion they deserve (see: Senator Scott Brown, Senator Olympia Snowe, Senator Susan Collins, ex-Governor Mitt Romney, ex-Mayor Rudy Giuliani, Mayor Mike “What Party Am I In Now?” Bloomberg, andGovernor Chris Christie, not to mention that asshole who won Anthony Weiner’s seat.).
cervantes
I live in rural CT – the Shetucket River valley, specifically, it’s farm country – and indeed, it is Glen Beckistan. I don’t know why it is, exactly, but there you are. I got shocked and horrified looks in the 7-11 for wearing an Obama T-shirt. They think they’re seeing Satan.
But that’s a constant, does nothing to explain variation from 2008 to the present.
Hawes
Murphy’s my congressman.
There were some bruising primary fights up here and Dems are kind of scattered right now. Linda McMahon has the name recognition, but Murphy’s impressive as hell.
Still, I’d love it if we got an ActBlue page for him.
Also, too, there are more white working class voters – especially socially conservative Italians – in Connecticut than people understand. That’s probably where a lot of the erosion comes from. Not the 20,000 or so Gold Coasters.
CT Resident
Connecticut’s unemployment rate is better than many states, but it’s still close to 8%, and even employed people are looking at little or no wage increases. You’re going to have some anti-incumbent sentiment when people are feeling that pain. It unavoidable. Obama was never going to do as well here in this cycle as he did in 2008.
TOP123
@Hawes: yep
ETA: the socially, culturally conservative thing is an enormous part of it here, likely bigger than the Wall St. vote. Not conservative like the South, but conservative, and ready and willing to give an FU to the ‘liberal establishment’.
Yes, I know it’s ridiculous. But Hawes is right.
ruemara
@TK421: Are you simply a moron, or are you achieving being an idiot?
Citizen_X
@Someguy:
That’s at least a tagline.
S. Holland
@Waldo: Agree…Linda’s ads are running non-stop in this state, but even the few die hard repubs I know will not vote for her because of the wrestling…I’ve only seen one ad for Murphy…so, that’s not good.
TOP123
@cervantes: My brother farms in central Mass (no, not the interesting part like Amherst) and suffers from the same affliction. Poor broken down region that once had a thriving manufacturing base, and is now all about Scott Brown.
Sort of like how people forget about all the D voters in states like Georgia, the existence of a decent wingnut base in the Northeast is not fully appreciated. Good on you to point it out.
Waldo
@cervantes: That’s my old home turf. I used to be able to see the mighty Shetucket from my parents’ house. Not far upriver from there, back in the ’80s, than Klan would occasionally cause a stir by holding a rally on some redneck’s farm. Sounds like things haven’t changed much.
TOP123
@S. Holland: The wrestling point is a good one. In this cycle, I wonder if they could not have picked up a seat running someone who was not just plain preposterous. Connecticut is not Wingnutistan and I think even the local Republicans are proud of that. (Hence McMahon’s soft-touch job creator BS ads) I think Shays would have had a solid chance, with his long history in the state and his rep as a Republican with a functioning frontal lobe. Of course, that did preclude him from the nomination, so I guess that’s all speculation…
TOP123
@Waldo: BTW glad to see references to the Quiet Corner, aka the LGV, on the Interspace. I do love Connecticut, despite our occasional affliction with pests like the WWF.
Bubblegum Tate
@TOP123:
Yeah, I grew up in Fairfield County (but I later escaped!), and these were the Republicans I grew up around: Wall Streeters, big-shot lawyers, and other rich folks who just wanted a top-bracket tax cut and maybe a capital gains tax cut to go with it. They really didn’t care about Bible-thumping, gay-bashing, woman-hating, and all the other ridiculous bullshit your modern wingnut goes crazy for; on those issues, they were more liberal than conservative. I kinda miss those Republicans, really….
Also, perhaps things have changed since I left Fairfield County, but the WWF/E didn’t exactly have a bad name around there. It was extremely involved in all sorts of local charities and such and basically sowed a lot of goodwill. Maybe that goodwill has been burned up, but back in the day, for a lot of folks, “WWF/E” meant “oh, that company that gave a nice big chunk of change at that last fundraiser I went to” before it meant “you mean that company that does that thing where grown men in tights pretend to beat each other up?”
Rosalita
Weighing in from north Fairfield County, CT
McMahon was running ads against Chris Murphy before she even won the primary. We’ve been listening to her ads for months. She’s softened her tone a bit to try and make herself likable (“…as a mom…”) blech.
All that said, it’s not totally liberal here…my step-dad quit going to his American Legion post because he was disgusted with having Fox on the TV and racist crap being tossed around the conversation.
JCT IV
These polls will be quite different once Murphy starts up his TV ads, showing a sequence of WWE clips that feature Linda kicking various wrestlers in the balls, and calling her own daughter a “slut”. There are also many instances of Linda herself getting punched/slapped/KO’d by wrestlers, and if my memory is correct – by even her husband Vince McMahon (if only by accident – he was trying to hit someone else).
aimai
@TOP123:
I also keep saying to people that voting for someone like Scott Brown is countercyclical. The better Obama does Nationally and the more Democrats want someone like Warren the harder Brown’s voters will turn out to vote for him. Because its literally the most they can do and still imagine they are effective. Its the spite voter’s last wail and last thumb in the eye of MA’s perennial Democratic lock on the state lege. Hell, the Boston Globe’s headline at the start of the GOP convention was something like “Finally Someone Will Pay Attention to the State’s Republicans” with the heavy implication that there might just be about eleven of them, total.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@gene108:
Crabs. Bucket. Delicious.
TOP123
@Rosalita: Not totally liberal? I would say “heavily infested by Wall Street Journal Republicans” for Fairfield Cty, particularly the rich bits, and then what Hawes said about the conservative relics. But yes, we are liberal on balance, thank goodness! :)
p.s. North F.C. makes me think we are typing these comments very close by–are you doing anything in the local DNC, etc.?
ETA meaning: are you getting some good vibes in the local D circles, and anything I should join?
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@SteveM:
You’re closer to the truth than you realize.
New England/Old Yankee culture: It’s still considered impolite to aggressively question or correct one’s “betters”.
taylormattd
The poll is bullshit.
taylormattd
@ruemara: Yes he is a moron. More importantly, however, he is a complete liar.
TOP123
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: With all due respect to an established commenter here, nonsense. That is not Yankee culture at all.
Omnes Omnibus
@taylormattd: One note troll trolls on one note.
TOP123
@TOP123: @Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: I would say that’s Republican culture! :)
TheMightyTrowel
@Omnes Omnibus: a thing of beauty, sir.
gogol's wife
I am completely depressed by the MacMahon thing. I don’t watch local television at all, so I haven’t seen any ads for anyone, but my memory of last time was that her ads only irritated people and didn’t really help her. That seems to have changed this time. Of course, Blumenthal was MUCH better known and liked in the state than Murphy, whom most people have never heard of. I like what I know of him, but he’s got to somehow get a higher profile. Toward the end of the primaries, Shays said he was shocked at how ignorant she was in the debates, even of her own policies. Please God let that emerge by fall and change some people’s minds. The only signs I see in my neighborhood are for her, and it makes me sick (I live in a traditionally Democratic town).
Rosalita
@TOP123: I’m in the Danbury area, so my infestation level isn’t quite as bad. Agreed on the relics. Most of the most vicious have never been out of their hometown, ever. Can you say low information voter?
I was very involved with the Dems in my town and attended a state convention once but I got so burned out dealing with the nutballs on a local level that I quit completely so I have no leads for you. I volunteer at the Animal Shelter these days, the cats always appreciate my efforts. ;)
TOP123
@aimai: Sort of like voting for Chris Christie. I agree with you, I think it’s really a way to give a local FU to a national trend with which you disagree… in this case, possibly, black people. I know tons of Tri-State Republicans would shout loudly that they disagree, but come on! Christie is the exact and total avatar of NJ NY Westchester Cty white male resentment. Or ressentiment, to make it fancy. And French.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@TOP123:
You say that as though those were two different things :P
I should also clarify, since the word ‘Yankee’ means different things depending upon where the speaker came from. When I say ‘Yankee’, I mean it in the Boston sense, ie “Suburban Protestant” (as opposed to “Urban Catholic”).
CTNative
@shortstop:
Many folks earning incomes in CT when I grew up there were earning paychecks from hedge fund work, insurance professions, and defense spending (cold war projects through Sikorsky in Stratford, and submarine projects in Groton used to be a much bigger source of income there). Employees in all 3 areas have some skin in the game in this election cycle.
Morzer
PPP shows Murphy up by 4.
http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/08/29/murphy_has_edge_in_close_connecticut_senate_race.html
feebog
This shows the power of TV ads. But when you start early and carpet bomb the electorate you reach the point of diminishing returns too quickly. I think she is about there already. Murphy will respond with some ads of his own after Labor Day when Independents and low information voters start paying attention. Plus, she has more name recognition than Murphy at this point. I don’t really think this seat is in danger.
TOP123
@Rosalita: Oh, wow, we are neighbours! I’m in 06877! I think it’s actually important in our hood to fight the fight vis-a-vis rich Wall Streeters and everyone else. We are really in one of the ground zero spots for that. I do think there are plenty of rich, rich people we can convert if they think about it as a real thing, rather than some etherial percentage in their next Romney mailing.
mdblanche
Is Quinnipiac known have any home-field expertise doing local polling in CT? Overall I thought I read somewhere their results are more Republican-leaning this cycle.
TOP123
@Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God: Certainly, and I use the word Yankee (I lived in the South for most of a decade, so I take the meaning of this word seriously!) with caution. I would specifically use it to mean old-school of English extraction. Pretty much the BTB definition. By that definition, Romney is very much not a Yankee. Nor is Paul Ryan. Nor Biden nor Obama, for that matter.
But I see what you meant. And the funny thing Is I totally agree with your point, but am enough of a language/history nerd to not let the Yankee bit slide.
Spatula
@taylormattd:
lulz.
More astute political analysis from TMD.
dark patriot
@gogol’s wife:
glad im not the only one depressed about this situation.
bob h
@Anya:
There is some mention at DKos of a new PPP poll which has Murphy up a bit.
Rosalita
@mdblanche: Q poll usually leans conservative
amcoco
Maybe the racist billboards the Randians are plastering up all over the MTA lines are having some effect. http://www.greenwich-post.com/online/daily-featured/local-news/100893-train-ads-cause-furor-charges-of-anti-islam-bigotry.html
auntie beak
@CT Resident: i have to concur. i live in bumf*k, ct, and the area is plastered with LINDA signs, and although i am a registered dem, i’m getting almost daily giant postcards about LINDA. she has enough money to plaster the state, and i am barely aware of the name of her opponent. some irish guy? frig if i know. it feels very much like a martha coakley/scott brown thing.
Rob in CT
I’m late to this. I live east of the River, in a small town that tends to lean GOP (as most of the towns do). I grew up in FF county. All the comments about how there are plenty of people who will vote for a non-loony Republican (as if those still exist) are true. People are probably yearning to. We’re all D all the time, and there’s probably some desire to send in an R.
McMahon has absolutely blitzed the state with ads. Murphy doesn’t have great name recognition.
The economy stinks and ’08 was a total wave year so you’d expect regression anyway. Look at 2010 – we very nearly elected Tom Foley governor. Of course mid-terms are not the same, but the point is you can’t just look at 2008 as a baseline.
Anyway, Linda signs freaking everywhere, tons of ads… and nada from Murphy. Or so it seems (admittedly, I avoid TV and rarely listen to radio even).