This might just be the hangover from too many $14 airport martinis talking, but I see way too much glee over Romney and way too little concern for the down ticket races in the blogs I’m following. You can’t take anything for granted, most of all the Senate, but the prize for 2012 is the House. Having the House means that something can get done in the next two years. Maybe, just maybe, if Democrats have a razor-thin majority in the House, Harry Reid and some of the Democratic Senate Rules fetishists will finally vote to modify the filibuster so that the “cooling saucer” is something more than a moldy fucking puddle. And it’s not a pipe dream:
Where things could go in the next seven weeks. Assume a +/-4% opinion shift between now and November, and this leads to a popular vote prediction of D+0% to D+8% (1 sigma). This gives a Democratic takeover probability of 74%, approximately three out of four.***
It should be noted that current conditions emphasize the post-convention bounce, which could be transient. Conversely, if the Democratic lead increases, that would take House control out of the knife-edge territory that I defined previously. For now, a smart use of campaign donations is to donate to the DCCC through this ActBlue page, or the GOP through Crossroads GPS.
That’s Sam Wang’s dispassionate analysis, and he’s right. If I were a Republican, I’d be giving to Crossroads GPS because they’ll dump a shitpot of money into races. Some SuperPAC just jammed $300K into a Medicare lie ad in my local race (NY-25) and I know it’s going to move the needle a wee bit. Brave, serious Paul Ryan might be backing away from the “Obamacare is a Medicare cut” bullshit, but there will still be tens of millions of dollars spent to push that lie to all the competitive local races.
Here’s my advice. If you have a competitive local race, give and volunteer. If your safe seat Democrat is sitting on a pot of campaign money, call the fucker up and tell him to give to other races now when it still can make a difference. Otherwise, give to the DCCC. Even the morons in Michele Bachmann’s district, who are probably just upset that MIchele missed one of the weekly House votes to repeal Obamacare, might be ready to kick her out. I doubt that they will, but there are a lot of other races where a few bucks could make a big difference.