This might just be the hangover from too many $14 airport martinis talking, but I see way too much glee over Romney and way too little concern for the down ticket races in the blogs I’m following. You can’t take anything for granted, most of all the Senate, but the prize for 2012 is the House. Having the House means that something can get done in the next two years. Maybe, just maybe, if Democrats have a razor-thin majority in the House, Harry Reid and some of the Democratic Senate Rules fetishists will finally vote to modify the filibuster so that the “cooling saucer” is something more than a moldy fucking puddle. And it’s not a pipe dream:
Where things could go in the next seven weeks. Assume a +/-4% opinion shift between now and November, and this leads to a popular vote prediction of D+0% to D+8% (1 sigma). This gives a Democratic takeover probability of 74%, approximately three out of four.***
It should be noted that current conditions emphasize the post-convention bounce, which could be transient. Conversely, if the Democratic lead increases, that would take House control out of the knife-edge territory that I defined previously. For now, a smart use of campaign donations is to donate to the DCCC through this ActBlue page, or the GOP through Crossroads GPS.
That’s Sam Wang’s dispassionate analysis, and he’s right. If I were a Republican, I’d be giving to Crossroads GPS because they’ll dump a shitpot of money into races. Some SuperPAC just jammed $300K into a Medicare lie ad in my local race (NY-25) and I know it’s going to move the needle a wee bit. Brave, serious Paul Ryan might be backing away from the “Obamacare is a Medicare cut” bullshit, but there will still be tens of millions of dollars spent to push that lie to all the competitive local races.
Here’s my advice. If you have a competitive local race, give and volunteer. If your safe seat Democrat is sitting on a pot of campaign money, call the fucker up and tell him to give to other races now when it still can make a difference. Otherwise, give to the DCCC. Even the morons in Michele Bachmann’s district, who are probably just upset that MIchele missed one of the weekly House votes to repeal Obamacare, might be ready to kick her out. I doubt that they will, but there are a lot of other races where a few bucks could make a big difference.
Napoleon
I held off giving to anyone until this past Monday and based on the lay of the land skipped giving anything to Obama and put all my money into 5 senate and 2 house races. I would recommend that to everyone.
Patricia Kayden
But aren’t you afraid that if the Democrats change the rules on filibusters, that could hurt Democrats in the future under a Republican President and Majority Republican Senate?
Mark S.
What I love is if the GOP loses big (WH and both houses) they’ll just blame Willard and not their poisonous, racist ideology. I could see this happening 4 more election cycles before they ever change, because they are that goddamn stupid.
MikeBoyScout
mistermix is spot on.
Rmoney is done. We need to swing this advantage down ticket.
Gekko/Galt is the anvil
We are the HAMMER!
Hammer it home
low-tech cyclist
Hell, I’ve been figuring since Day 2 of the Democratic Convention that it was time to shift attention to the House and Senate, and I’ve already thrown a bunch of money into Senate races.
Soonergrunt was saying, “The Fight’s Not Over. Run Up The Score On The Bastards!” and if there’s one place where it’s really, REALLY important to run up the score, it’s the Senate.
Astoundingly, we could do more than just hold onto the Senate. We could actually pick up seats, net, this year, which would give us a margin of error for holding the Senate in 2014, when we have essentially no pickup prospects. (Damn, it would be really great to come out of this election with 55-56 Dems in the Senate, after everyone was wondering if we could hold it at all!) So give to candidates like Tammy Baldwin (WI), Shelley Berkley (NV), Heidi Heitkamp (ND), Jon Tester (MT), and others who are on the bubble. Check out Nate Silver for a list of the close races, and some updates due to this week’s polling.
And yeah, we’ve got a real shot at the House. I’m the sort who’s trying to put together his own list of candidates to give to, but if push comes to shove, I’ll give to the DCCC before the end of the month, even if they’ll spend more money than I’d like on Blue Dogs.
EconWatcher
You want to talk about downticket problems? Let’s talk about $#@%& Tim Kaine.
My god, how stupid do you have to be, not to see that the Romney 47% comment cuts our way? The line on this for a Dem is so easy and obvious: We have a lot of people who are not paying federal income taxes because they’re so poor, because all of the money has been flowing up to the 1% over the last 30 years.
But Kaine thinks maybe the Republicans have a point, maybe we need to address these 47% of moochers by imposing a universal tax that would apply to everyone. What the $#@%&????!!! And as I mentioned on a thread below, his deft walkback now is that he only said he would consider such a tax, not that he would actually do it.
I’m really furious with this guy. But he’s long looked to me like a DLC fossil with no core, a guy who’s so busy trying to discern how to walk that line in the middle of the road that he wouldn’t recognize a moral principle if it ran over him.
He’d just taken the lead. This seat was ours. All he had to do was play it safe. But now he’s not only given Macaca a big opening to become my next Senator, he’s probably created questions they’ll be throwing at Obama.
What.A.Jerk. Did I mention I’m furious?
MattF
@Patricia Kayden: I’d argue that current Republicans have crossed the line from “We should preserve traditional prerogatives” to “Our job is to prevent ‘that one’ from doing anything.” Lots of judicial and departmental appointments are just stopped dead in their tracks because some R Senator is bearing a grudge. Not to mention the dead-end crazy we will see if any of the conservative Supremes has a heart attack while on his exercise bike. The time has come to do better.
low-tech cyclist
@Patricia Kayden:
Not really. Because if the Dems use the end of the filibuster to pass good programs that benefit most Americans and put people back to work, it’ll be a long time before the GOP holds the Presidency and both houses of Congress at once.
The biggest reason we took the hit we did in 2010 was that even though we were technically in control of both the White House and Congress, the filibuster prevented us from having as big a stimulus package as we would have, or from passing additional jobs legislation in 2010 when it was clear that people needed more help.
But your average voter can’t see that the minority is blocking us; they expect the majority to fix things. And when we didn’t, we paid, even though it wasn’t our fault.
That’s why the filibuster has to go.
Someguy
We shouldn’t be too gleeful and have to remain focused, but it’s pretty clear that there’s going to be a D landslide this year. Whether it’s neough for us to get back the House isn’t clear – but I’m with Durbin in thinking that the Senate is safe and the House is in play as long as everybody works hard and gets their neighbors out to vote etc.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
When Reid talks about revisiting the filibuster rules next terms, does anybody know his point of departure? I remember there were a couple of plans floating around for filibuster “reform” but don’t remember the details or which one (if any) good ole Harry supported.
mistermix
@Patricia Kayden: As long as Obama has the veto, no, so there are 4 years down. Let’s see where we are then. Long-term, the demographics of a 50 vote majority are in favor of Democrats because the Senate already privileges the smaller, redder states over the large, urban blue states.
KBS
So, does anybody have a good list of in-play House races where money could make the difference?
Ash Can
I’d put this in neon colors if I could. I’m having as much fun howling over the hilarious adventures of Mitt Romney as anyone else, but the fact is, it’ll just be SSDD if the House doesn’t somehow, some way, flip back. I’m donating to the DCCC for the first time ever myself. I’m sitting pretty in my safe Dem Congressional district, and Mark Kirk (poor guy) isn’t up for re-election yet, so I can’t do much else than that. For those of you who do live in a contested district, however, for God’s sake, contact your candidate’s campaign people and see what you can do. There are multiple ways to get involved and help out. Please do it.
mary
All this glee makes me nervous. It is still a long way to election day and the situation could change rapidly back the other way. I think it is all going to depend on turnout and if marginal voters think it doesn’t matter whether they vote, it could make a catastrophic difference.
Napoleon
@Patricia Kayden:
This idea is so wrongheaded I don’t even know where to start, but hear is one. More chockpoints in the law making process means less laws get enacted and the ones that do are more watered down. It is that simple. That favors the conservatives. Period, end of story.
No filibuster and Obamacare would have a public option today.
Steve
@Patricia Kayden: Let’s not forget, in that scenario there is nothing that stops the GOP from getting rid of the filibuster themselves if they want to. They’re certainly not going to say, “Nah, we’d like to, but the Democrats were nice enough to hold their fire in 2013.”
Napoleon
@low-tech cyclist:
Betty Sutton in Ohio is neck and neck in her race in a district that ussually leans R and has an incumbant R in it.
ploeg
And then there’s Christie Vilsack. Regardless of what you think of her husband, she’s got a good shot at defeating Steve King after redistricting.
MKHess
I’ve been feeling this for a while now! We need to pour some focous on the House races! There is actually a shot at getting it back! No one is talking about it in the media, but “we voters” should be working/thinking/talking hard about it!!
Napoleon
@Steve:
In fact I will go a step farther and predicated on the fact the Repub. refuse to honor any institutional norms the filibuster is as good as gone if they have both houses and the prez.
Omnes Omnibus
@mary: There is nothing wrong with recognizing and enjoying the fact that our side is doing well. As long as it does not spill over into arrogance and complacency, I think it is just fine. People shouldn’t live in fear. We are doing well right now; acknowledge it; enjoy it; and then get to work so that we do even better.
NorthLeft12
Please pay a visit to http://downwithtyranny.blogspot.ca/ regarding the performance of the DCCC.
It appears the DCCC is more interested in throwing money at Blue Dogs and Corporate Dems than supporting progressives.
Linda Featheringill
@KBS: #12
House races:
This compilation is a little over a week old but worth looking at, anyway.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/09/13/1130295/-Taking-Back-the-House-List-of-Competitive-House-Races
pseudonymous in nc
As I and others have said, you’re dealing with the as-yet-unknown effects of redistricting in a lot of states that ended up with wingnut legislatures after 2010, and gerrymandered the life out of House districts. My guess is that if there’s sufficient movement in terms of turnout, or a large enough enthusiasm gap come November, then the House moves into play, but I’m not sure of the benefits of picking out specific races this time around.
I still think the best bang for buck this cycle is going to be in state legislative races, to try and reduce the amount of time spent on whack-a-mole over the next two years on state-level issues like voter ID or vaginal probes or papers-please immigration laws or whatever draft laws ALEC faxes from its DC office.
Todd
Nooners tripled down on her swipes on Romney.
http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10000872396390444165804578008702719456198.html
She really, really hates the man.
Walker
Because of the redistricting, it looks like Ithaca (NY-23) might go red for the first time in a long time. We are no longer grouped with a big city like Bingo, and the Jamestown area is pretty red.
WereBear
@Walker: May I say I have been to Jamestown, and I understand why Lucille Ball worked so hard to leave there.
gene108
@Mark S.:
They aren’t doing it because they are stupid.
There are powerful forces that aligned themselves with the GOP that demand they maintain the course.
From the billionaires – Mellon-Scaife, Adelson, Koch’s, et. al. – to the religious zealots, to the anti-tax zealots, to the entrenched right-wing media personalities, driven by Roger Ailes and Fox News and Rush Limbaugh on the radio, the Republican Party doesn’t have the ability to tell these groups to, “piss off, you are costing us elections”.
The Republican Party knows the base will only be tuned into those voices for information and crossing those people will cause you to lose in a primary to someone those guys approve of.
In a nutshell, the “professional” politicians of the Republican Party are no longer steering their “ship”. They are being carried along by the currents of the right-wing wurlitzer and as the wurlitzer’s ability to influence the news of the day ebbs and recedes so will the GOP’s fortunes.
TheMightyTrowel
I put this on the other thread too: Homer Simpson gets out and votes.
jwb
Yesterday, much of the commentary on BJ was devoted to focusing our efforts on the House and Senate races. It was take a gleeful swing at Romney to gin up the enthusiasm and then set to the hard work of figuring out how to hold the Senate and the even harder work of retaking the House. Speaking of which, could someone figure out how to put together one of those Act Blue accounts to support Dems in competitive House and Senate seats to complement the one for Obama?
Stickler
Keep in mind that redistricting only works well when turnout remains moderate. If one side really shows up at the polls, it can in some cases backfire on the gerrymandering party. Can’t remember where I read that, but it was on the Internet so it must be true.
Anya
@EconWatcher: I was really shocked at him saying he’ll look into taxing the 47%. But I really don’t think Tim Kane as someone without a core. To me he comes across as a really nice guy to tries too hard not to be confrontational.
General Stuck
Dispatch from the front. Wingnuts counterattack.
Paul Ryan enters the dragon, selling his
snake oilvoucher care to seniors in Florida. That’s right. The most popular and beloved new deal program on the planet, needs to be reformed. Lead balloon politics.Just watched Jen Rubin on Chucky T, Bloody Bill Crystal’s mini me, advising Romney to go all in on making the campaign about the evil muslims that aren’t being bombed enough, whilst being prodded by sekret terrorist master mind, Barack Hussein Obama.
Man, I keep tryin’ to turn away from this train wreck, but it just keeps pulling me right back in.
Brian R.
@TheMightyTrowel:
Awesome.
beltane
@Todd: Ann Romney’s “Stop being mean to hubby!” outburst yesterday, part of which was aimed at Noonan, is not going to do her any favors either.
TheMightyTrowel
@Brian R.: I fully admit it made me snort. “Also, He promised me death panels and grandpa is still alive!”
General Stuck
Then there is this mutant bullshit spat out by the mighty wurlitzer.
Note that the purported source of the story AFB of Lebanon says it’s false and they reported no such thing.
I’m sure that is of comfort for the grieving family reading
that their murdered loved ones were sodomized before being murdered.
These assholes would shake down their own mothers to win this election. Then send her a bill for their trouble.
pseudonymous in nc
@NorthLeft12:
I’m as up for a DCCC-kicking as anyone, but donating to Howie Klein’s preferred candidates is, nine times out of ten, only slightly more worthy than setting it on fire. He’s very good at hiding the fact that the district demographics are set against them.
ploeg
@Stickler: It all depends. In the case of Iowa, where the state lost another congressional district, and the remaining population has migrated to the larger towns and cities, it’s becoming much harder to draw a safe R district.
1badbaba3
I’m in mid-Michigan and I cannot say enough what a relief it was when the anti-Obama stupidPACs stopped polluting the airwaves with their incessant drivel. The saturation was extremely irritating, at least one sometimes two per four minute bloc. And it was backfiring. People have been so turned off by the shrill tone, and the frequency. It’s the intrusion, stupid. The Obama ads are there, but far more judiciously spaced. It’s more personal, and it features the Big Dog. The differences could not be more striking.
General Stuck
@General Stuck:
Should have been Bill Kristol. Sorry Billy, I’m an idiot.
mdblanche
@General Stuck: Well, they are both comedians…
El Cid
FWIW, I don’t visit Balloon-Juice for serious, detail and practicality oriented discussions of downballot races. I wouldn’t take evidence of snarking here as evidence of lack of concern elsewhere.
chris9059
“Having the House means that something can get done in the next two years. ”
Unfortunately that something would most likely be some version of a Bowles – Simpson “grand compromise” embodying some of the president’s worst ideas, such as raising the retirement age for SS, raising eligibility for Medicare to 67, and changing the COLA formula.
KBS
@Linda Featheringill: Thanks!
Heliopause
Saner tax policy would be possible, assuming they want such a thing. Any kind of major stimulative economic policy probably won’t. Immigration and most other social policies will either be impossible or turned into nearly meaningless compromises. And all of this is contingent on the Dems not committing to something monumentally stupid in the lame duck session. But yes, at least something other than debt ceiling chicken will get done.