Unexpectedly better than expected new employment report, with major revisions in August, shows a drop in the unemployment rate to 7.8%, the lowest since January, 2009. September’s 114K is still not good but it’s not the catastrophe Romney was praying for. I wonder if the Angel Moroni took a day off.
I realize that there’s nothing like a bunch of spooked Democrats to put the “I” in panic, but a whole lot of things have to go right for Romney to turn his campaign around, and this wasn’t one of them.
Chyron HR
Instant36 hour karma’s gonna get you.c u n d gulag
Jeez, too bad!
And here it is, only two days after Mitt kept bringing up how President Obama promised to get the unemployment rate down below 8%.
I wonder if Mittens and Paulie will offer the President their congratulations?
LOL!
If this were W., they’d have rented out the floor of the NY Stock Exchange, had W. ride in in a Rolls, wearing a codpiece under his Brooks Brother suit, and make a speech under a “Mission Accomplished!” banner.
President Obama will take it in stride.
But I’m pretty sure Biden will rub Ryan’s face in Mitt’s comments!
Paul
So Obama’s unemployment rate is now lower than when he took over…
Now what’s Romney going to run on?
On CNBC this morning they had some analyst who claimed that if the number was bad, the market would go up because a bad number would mean Romney would win.
Well, it was a good number and the futures are up anyway. It is amazing what stuff CNBC makes up to try to make our President look bad. Even when it’s not true.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
Considering that half of the people in Washington are attempting to make this negative, 114K is a lot better than it could be. I think we should start phrasing the fragment as “September’s 114K, which would be higher if Republicans weren’t attempting to wreck the economy”
pattonbt
They went up because Mitt WON THE DEBATE and the market went on a huge hiring binge in a single day because the election is OAVH and Mitt’s in and that shows like in his for reals 47% tape that all he has to do is win and things will magically become totes awesome again. No hard work no policy necessary! Just the awesomeness of Mitt and glory will be upon us!
If the numbers were bad, Obama totes sucks!
Is that the proper spin for the wingnuts?
Cervantes
“Unexpectedly better than expected” average hourly earnings, as well.
Or something like that.Suffern Ace
Meh. Mitt will just talk about those 300k jobs per month his tax plan would create and note that even if he fired big bird, the guy would have a job again the next day.
hueyplong
Mitt loves to fire people, but his campaign requires a lot of other employers to fire people too.
His amigos have let him down, for one report, anyway.
nemesis
Lets hope our folks have the stones to take credit for this number and sell it to the people. My guess, we wont.
dr. bloor
Getting the rate back into the sevens is a nice optical milestone.
Of course, cue wingnuts attributing the decline to massive waves of citizens dropping out of the workforce because the Sheriff’s a Ni-CLANG. Or, perhaps to Mittster’s sublime debate performance on Wednesday night.
kd bart
Can someone tell the idiots on Morning Joe that the Job Numbers and Unemployment rate are generated from two separate surveys. Also, with all the recent upward revisions , for July and August and earlier in the year, they were bound to have an effect. The monthly surveys are rough. That’s why there are always revisions that rarely get mentioned. Thus, last month’s anemic 96,000 is now a more robust 142,000.
lacp
The lowest since January 2009? Willard just took one right between the eyes.
Sterling
I’ve been amazed at the number of high-profile democrats who shat themselves online over the past 24 hours, even though it was clear that the only useful soundbite coming out of the debate was Romney saying he wanted to terminate Big Bird.
eric
I can give you the Romney spin: “While an improvement it is not good enough. But, I think what you are really seeing is the job creators getting a very real sense that I am leading this race and that policies favorable to job creators are just over the horizon. i think you are seeing the confidence the job creators see in a economy driven by a Romney administration. There can be no greater boost of confidence to our campaign than these numbers.”
magurakurin
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Exactly. Obama managed to get unemployment to 7.8% with the Goopers in the House cock blocking every fucking step of the way. Imagine if the American Jobs Act had been past? Or the originally proposed stimulus package? Cock blocked at every turn by the GOP asshole brigade.
Republicans, if you vote for them your one stupid motherfucker.
dr. bloor
@lacp: If they’re smart, and they are, Team Obama will not just use the 1/09 rate as a comparative statistic for today’s rate, but will also use it to remind our ADHD-addled nation just how close our economy was to being totally fucked when Obama came into office. A “slow recovery” is somewhat more palatable when compared to the clusterfuck he inherited.
eric
@magurakurin: i think motherfucking cock blocker will be saying de jour…
ps. spell check wants to correct motherfuckin’ to motherfucking….who would have thunk it would be in the dictionary, though it might just be a BJ add-on
dr. bloor
@eric: Let’s hope so. OFA can draw a straight line from the hubris in that statement to Romney’s gall in claiming credit for the auto industry turnaround.
Kane
Steve Benen points out that the 1.3 million jobs created in 2012 is already better than five of the eight years of the Bush/Cheney era.
amk
Apparently, jack welch is claiming it’s all chicago style thug politics. Any one can confirm that ?
Paul
Here’s what Jack Welch, a frequent guest on CNBC stated this morning:
Jack Welch, the former CEO of General Electric [GE 22.95 0.04 (+0.17%) ], caused a stir after the numbers were released, tweeting “Unbelievable jobs numbers…these Chicago guys will do anything…can’t debate so change numbers.”
Again, it is amazing what CNBC will do and say to hurt the President of the United States.
jayackroyd
Obama could help his campaign enormously by taking SS and Medicare off the table.
Just sayin’…..
Punchy
According to CNBC, Jack Welch has a serious sad over these revised numbers. Went so far as to accuse the Admin of doctoring them to paper over a poor debate performance.
What a god-awful piece of rancid shit that bastard is.
Higgs Boson's Mate
@eric:
That is fucking eerily spot on.
eric
@Paul: Implicit in that BS is the admission that the (i) the numbers are objectively good and (ii) they are objectively good for Obama. Thanks Jack.
jayackroyd
Also, Dday. We’ve already made the first round B-S cuts.
It’s kinda batshit crazy to want more austerity. But that’s what the president is advocating.
Kay
@Paul:
These are the job creators and great patriots we’re ordered to admire. Jesus. They’re bitter, spiteful hacks, just seething with resentment.,
Gary
This is unalloyed good news.
Two data points are especially encouraging. After many months of being a drag, govt jobs actually increased (though by a modest 10,000). Second, the unemployment rate dropped despite an increase in the number of people in the labor force — including those looking for work. This means that the drop in the unemployment rate is not due to dispirited workers giving up on looking for work.
Even with Mitt’s shiny new smile and patter debuted at the first debate, he hasn’t given most people a reason to vote for him other than dissatisfaction with the economy. If a voter hasn’t been convinced yet to vote for Romney, he is even less likely to opt for Romney given today’s unemployment news.
If Obama can just pump himself up to go for the jugular (though in a nice way) at the next debate, I think he can still win by a good margin.
amk
@Punchy: So it’s true then this senile man has gone full wingnut?
Paul
@Paul:
If you are going to make such an accusation against our President, you should be prepared show us your evidence. Otherwise, expect the ridicule you deserve.
lamh35
@Punchy: jack welch should STFU and just be happy to still be alive and stay his ass home with his jump-off turned wife.
Dork
I dated a girl once who offered some BJ add-ons.
The Red Pen
Naturally, the wingnut-o-sphere is calling bullshit — mainly because denying objective reality is their “go to” move these days.
Is “Tyler Durden” at Zero Hedge an idiot, or is he respected? I see Zero Hedge quoted here occasionally. He’s in high dudgeon.
jayackroyd
I mean, I get, the “shut up purity troll. those foreign Muslims will get killed by Romney too, and they don’t really count as people anyway” and “militants don’t deserve actual judges and shit”(and that is no exaggeration) if we get 95% of what we want.
But, you know, I think advocating cutting SS and Medicare kinda reduces the 95% thing.
eric
@lamh35: jack welch is a man of incalcuable personal integrity: Last fall, the 66-year-old former GE chairman gave an interview to 42-year-old Suzy Wetlaufer, the editor of the Harvard Business Review. A romantic relationship quickly blossomed. And that prompted the 49-year-old Mrs. Welch to call Wetlaufer in December and question her, shall we say, journalistic integrity.
Wetlaufer, divorced with four kids, went to her superiors and confessed to the dalliance.
var
Another big story is how massive the revisions are. +200k if you consider the revisions. Obama would have been better off had those original estimates been higher.
The workforce participation rate went up, which is another solid thing about this report.
Momentum is the next day’s starting pitcher, bitches.
Comrade Jake
Obama sez “Chill the FUCK out, I got this!”
Chyron HR
@jayackroyd:
It’s funny how you guys legitimately WANT Obama to cut Social Security, just so you can heroically oppose him.
And yet he refuses to oblige you. How inconsiderate!
schrodinger's cat
@eric: He is 66? looks more like 86 with a foot in the grave.
arguingwithsignposts
Hey, everyone remember that time about 12 hours ago when ppl were freaking out over the debate? Yeah, good times.
lamh35
so basically, politically speaking, despite Mittens debate “win”, with the unemployment numbers, the $150 mill fundraising haul, the. jobs number, and the EC dominance, Obama STILL wins the news cycle!!! KARMA’s a bitch ain’t it!
Once again proving that the media narrative means shit when real world truth happens.
too bad for Mitt supporters, they weren’t even allowed 48hr to crow. I suspect that Romney’s first debate performance will be something for the to cling to.
PeakVT
@The Red Pen: He’s respected by idiot wingnuts. Also, I think it’s a group pseudonym.
amk
@Kay: For the past two days, weren’t the thugs painting Obama is a bumbling idjit ? Now suddenly he is the all capable and powerful emperor ?
Does this fucker have a twitter account ?
evap
My daughter was one of the ones who got a job, after a couple of months of looking, so I’m happy with the report for two reasons. :)
Kay
@Paul:
They managed to force a serious discussion in media on whether or not the polls were skewed. They did that by screaming for 2 weeks. They don’t need evidence. They can level any charge, make any accusation, and media will “get to the bottom of it” and conclude that opinions differ. The accusation is the point of this exercise.
Paul
@amk:
He has been a wingnut all along. He recently hosted a fundraiser at his own home for Linda McMahon, the GOP candidate in CT.
It amazes me when he is on CNBC that they only advertise him as the former CEO of GE. Why don’t they also admit that he is a wingnut?
Face
OT:
In the Hall of Fame Level of “NO SHIT, REALLY?”, this:
Berf control = smaller abortion milkshakes
They needed a study to tell us this? I wonder if next, they’ll use a study to determine that rich guys get hotter chix.
Tone In DC
@Kay:
I think Welch and this guy Cooperman were separated at birth.
Just sayin’.
http://www.finalternatives.com/node/21753
http://www.businessinsider.com/cooperman-annoyed-obama-didnt-send-thanks-2012-10
lamh35
@schrodinger’s cat: I don’t believe he’s 66. my granny is 72 and looks less like she has her foot in the grave like welch
Kay
@amk:
Contradictions don’t matter. Did you see a single conservative question the post-debate polling? No. Nor will you. The polls are suddenly accurate, and all that bullshit about partisan weighting goes out the window. It’s a new day, and a new reality, just like every other morning. There is no past.
eric
@Kay: evidence? these are the same people that claim that he was born on Krypton and transported in a ship powered by the tears of dead confederate soldiers. These fuckers dont need evidence.
ps “Krypton” is in the dictionary. did you read that: motherfucking Krypton is in the spell check dictionary
Rommie
Nothing can motivate sports teams, and individual competitors, more than getting their teeth kicked in because they didn’t bring their “A” game. The resulting Eff You mode is often glorious.
D’s get the wets because all too often they’ve seen their guy get thrashed and know he doesn’t have anything in reserve to go to. I don’t get that feeling with Obama, and that he has a can or two of whoop-ass still in his pocket.
And please, let Serious Folks insinuate the new job numbers are cooked. Mention them frequently, don’t hold back.
Paul
@jayackroyd:
If he did that, how would he be ANY different than the GOP who claims that any tax increases are off the table? That’s what I don’t get about you people on the far left; you don’t like Republicans or Bush, yet you want Obama to be exactly like them.
In a true negotiation everything has to be on the table. That doesn’t mean that you will agree to any SS or Medicare cuts in the end.
eric
@Paul: CEO of GE = wingnut.
jayackroyd
@Chyron HR: Not at all. I want you to raise a stink. I want these cuts to be made politically impossible. I want you to, I dunno, double check with your Congresscritter and your Senators to make sure they are going to oppose this.
The president’s position it to make cuts in SS and Medicare. If you’re fine with that, then, fine. But if you aren’t, you should, in my opinion, let people in power know that. This is the moment of most leverage. The moment of least leverage is the lame duck.
And, of course, if I am entirely wrong, and the president doesn’t really mean what he says, then there is no downside to asking your elected officials to commit to no cuts.
But, if you believe that the president came out in full throated support of preserving our social insurance programs without any reductions, then I think you need to go to the videotape.
MikeJ
@Sterling:
No matter what Romney did in the debates Republicans were going to yell as loud as they could that he won. No matter what Obama did, Democrats were going to piss and moan that he had lost the whole thing. It’s what Democrats do.
lamh35
@eric: ok then, Welch is the epitome of virtue… f*u*c*k him
Paul
@Kay:
To the media’s credit, there was for the first time ever a good pushback against their dumb claims. Sure, it helped that even FoxNews showed Obama with a good lead.
dr. bloor
@schrodinger’s cat: In an irresistable cost-cutting move a few years ago, he fired the portrait of himself that he kept in the attic.
rikyrah
you all do realize what the unemployment rate would be if the GOP hadn’t of cut all those public sector jobs.
and, if the President’s Jobs Bill had passed.
jehrler
@var:
Absolutely. The revisions for July and August mean jobs grew 36% faster than originally estimated.
No wonder consumer confidence has been up more than expected.
flukebucket
@lamh35:
He is 77.
Punchy
Um…..uh, are you aware that it’s a noble gas element? Would you be surprised to see “carbon” or “oxygen” in the spellcheck, too?
The Red Pen
Jack Welch has such unparalleled management skills they named Welch’s Grape Juice after him, because he squeezes the sweetest juice out of his workers’ mind grapes.
Steve
@evap: That’s awesome. I was just thinking how it’s a shame we’re focused mainly on how this is good news for the campaign, when the fact is the statistic represents a lot of real people for whom things are finally looking up. So your news couldn’t have been more timely!
gogol's wife
@flukebucket:
The leaving-his-wife thing happened a while ago. I think that was a quotation that didn’t get presented as a quotation so looked as if it was referring to now.
Chyron HR
@jayackroyd:
In the worst case scenario Obama only has 3 and a half months left to make these cuts, so where are they? Is he, as John Sununu would put it, too lazy and shiftless to enact these cuts that he so totally wants?
Steve
@jayackroyd: Do you want us to get upset about the $716 billion President Obama “robbed” from Medicare, too?
The Red Pen
@Punchy:
The name of Oprah’s network is in the dictionary now? It’s proof that blacks are the real racists!
Tone In DC
@Chyron HR:
Good one.
Mouse Tolliver
Joe Scar was hilarious this morning. He went from gloating about Mitt’s debate performance to a quasi-hissy fit over the jobs report. So desperate to spin this as bad news for Obama.
jayackroyd
@Paul:
Wait. You’re really saying that Social Security, that the deal we baby boomers made for contributing above pay as you go, as per the Greenspan commission deal, accepting benefit cuts and higher tax rates, should be back on the table? Really? And you think the idea that the off budget, independent, social security trust fund paid for by dedicated payroll taxes that fully funds projected benefits through 2027 or so, and 70 percent of projected benefits forever, should be on the table? That this trust fund should be abrogated for other
And saying no to that is a far left position? My effin’ word.
japa21
@Paul: This is so true. Obama has always said that he would listen to any ideas, but that doesn’t mean he would go along with them. Optics. GOP=revenue increases are off the table Obama = we need to look at the whole picture. Which one is the more adult reasonable? Let me know if he ever does anything that would actually, you know, harm either Medicare or SS.
jayackroyd
@Steve: What the fuck are you talking about?
Punchy
@The Red Pen: The also named a bourbon after him, combining his name with Charlie Daniels, another class-F wingtard.
SiubhanDuinne
@schrodinger’s cat:
No, he’s 76. The thing Eric quoted was from 10 years ago. It was quite the scandale at the time.
jibeaux
The conspiracy theory about the numbers being cooked developed faster than expected. I haven’t even finished my coffee yet.
MikeJ
@The Red Pen: There’s antimony, arsenic, aluminum[1], selenium, and hydrogen and oxygen and nitrogen and rhenium, and nickel, neodymium, neptunium, germanium, and iron, americium, ruthenium, uranium, europium, zirconium, lutetium, vanadium….
[1]my spell check was set to UK so this showed an error. It is of coursed the correct spelling of an incorrect word.
Kay
@Tone In DC:
Lovely that they’re using the word “hatred” openly like that when referring to an individual. I’m a little confused, though. “Industries” have feelings, now? “Coal” probably hates Obama too.
eric
my bad on the quote thing — i am multitasking and my quote-fu is poor
Paul
@jayackroyd:
Based on your posting, do you really think there is ANY difference between you and Grover Norquist?
If you are truly going to have a negotiation with the other party (and UNTIL YOU HAVE THE VOTES, you have to negotiate), everything has to be on the table. That doesn’t mean you will agree to any cuts.
Instead of complaining about Obama doing stuff he hasn’t even done yet, why don’t you make sure you get more votes for your position.
jayackroyd
@Chyron HR:
First, you’re agreeing, right, that cuts to SS and Medicare are a bad idea, right?
Second, how they’d do it is to use Obama’s “4 trillion dollar plan” which is a revised B-S 3 dollars of cuts to 1 dollar of revenue formula to cut SS as proposed in Bowles Simpson–to raise the retirement age, cut the COLA, restructure the benefit formula. And the way I think it’s most likely they’d do it is in the lame duck, when there is minimal accountability. But there’s no downside, as I’ve said, to calling your elected reps and getting commitments to no such cuts, right? And no reason not to press the President on the same commitment, right? Because there’s no chance anyway….
Have you read the B-S SS proposals? http://jayackroyd.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/ss-source-material/
Or are you just saying whatever O can get is fine with me?
Steve
@jayackroyd: I gather you missed not only this week’s debate, where Romney repeatedly accused Obama of cutting Medicare by $716 billion, but also the entire 2010 election, where Republicans picked up dozens of seats by demagoguing the Medicare changes in the ACA.
Once you’ve read up on the issue, I’m just curious to know where you stand. Since you think Medicare should be untouchable, are you upset about what Obama did?
Chyron HR
@jayackroyd:
Yes, it would be terrible for the country and political suicide for whoever does it.
So, uh, why do you think Obama is chomping at the bit to do it? “Man, I am just TOO popular, I need to go down in history as a despised failure!”
maya
@lamh35: Jack Welch is 76. Born in 1935. He’s the guy who financially ‘helped’ Ronald Reagan find the Republican Way because he had done such a great job of selling light bulbs on GE Theater.
Cassidy
Ahhh, I get it. You’re pulling an Eastwood. Let us know how the other end of that conversation is going for you.
BruinKid
@The Red Pen: Zero Hedge seems to have become a Ron Paul sycophant blog now. They all believe in his loony conspiracy theories, and HATE Paul Krugman. They cheered on a commenter when he wrote this:
Those people are fucking sick.
Violet
These employment numbers are great for the president and the Dems. YAY! So glad to have something new–and good–to talk about.
Marc
@Cassidy:
Invisible Obama is always ready to sell us out!
Higgs Boson's Mate
@Punchy:
Back in the Eighties Jack Welch was nicknamed “The Neutron Bomb” because all of the employees would be gone while the buildings and furniture remained intact.
Cassidy
@Marc: I think Jackahole is getting his ass kicked by an empty chair.
I’m kind of in a foul mood, so I don’t have patience: Hey dipshit/ jackahole! No one has said those things or taken those positions. You want to be taken seriously? You want us to listen to your “serious” positions? Then stop being such a fucking liar. That’s the problem with people like you and spatula is that you can’t fucking argue in good faith. You’re a couple of mendacious pricks who are so concerned with having that victim dildo up your ass, that you can’t even have a functional adult conversation regarding policy differences. The day you can actually talk without purposely and dishonestly misrepresenting what other people has said is the day I’m willing to respect the bullshit that comes out of your mouth. I won’t hold my breath. Fuck you. Go huff some paint. Walk in front of a bus.
quannlace
Glad I checked in on the intertubes. I swore I saw on the early morning MSNBC that the jobs report was squat and the employment number might go up and what would this do the race”….blah-blah. I guess it was a bit too foggy when I went out for the newspaper.
Mighty glad the news is so different!
Quincy
This is great news. The jobs report doesn’t need to change the momentum Obama’s way or even halt Romney’s post-debate momentum. Romney’s far enough behind with so little time to go that it’s a matter of opportunity cost for him. He is quickly running out of events that offer any potential to give his poll numbers a bump. This was one of them. More to the point, Romney won’t get where he needs to with isolated moments, he needs three or four in a row so the positive effects compound like strikes in bowling. Coming off his debate performance this was probably his best opportunity to do that. Instead of heading into the weekend with the media fluffing him and a full news cycle of Obama’s policies aren’t working, squishy voters got the affirmation they needed to go with what their guts which had been telling them for the past month that things are slowly but surely getting better and they like Obama much more than Mitt anyway.
mdblanche
@jayackroyd: Wolf! Wolf! A wolf is eating the sheep!
Steeplejack
@eric:
You might have provided a link or noted that this scandal is 10 years old.
ETA: What SiubhanDuinne said.
lamh35
BTW, Romneys reaction via TPM to unemployment/job numbers… “this is not what a real recovery looks like”. umm ok Mitt
boehner says number positive but slow. someone should ask him if it would be faster if they’d approved Obama’s jobs bill
Tone In DC
@Kay:
These monied businesspersons/MOtU sure have delicate fee fees. Since none of their alleged grievances have any basis in any actual Obama Administration policy.
These guys are so used to getting their asses kissed, they behave like tantrum throwing toddlers when someone does not do it.
Steve
@lamh35: Can I just point out that it wouldn’t have killed Obama to point out during the debate that he has a very specific piece of pending legislation – the American Jobs Act – that would create 2 million jobs according to independent forecasters like Moody’s, and that has been filibustered by the GOP for 12 months straight?
japa21
Good news all around. With the adjustments for the past 2 months, this comes out to 200,000 new jobs. With the report earlier of the extra 386,000 new jobs from last year, this puts Obama well over the number of employed when he became President. If, using Romney’s own statement that you can’t hold the first six months against a new President, then Obama’s administration has overseen a couple million increase.
Also, the drop in the UE is not, as some on the right might try to say, because of discouraged workers, because it shows over 400,000 more people in the workforce or looking for work.
Plus, I expect next month’s report, just before the election, to revise this month’s upward.
Plus, there was an uptick in public sector employment.
Plus, looking back at the debate, it is obvious that all the lines that can be used against either of the candidates came from Romney. The Big Bird is the most obvious, but also the “new accountant” line which basically admitted he had sent jobs overseas. Plus others.
flukebucket
Is Jack Welch tied in any way to the founder of the John Birch Society? I think his name was Robert Welch.
catclub
I have a Bach CD to play when NPR is too much. Today I failed to deploy it.
The report goes: “7.8% unemployment, which will probably have an effect on the race, although the employment number is still not that great.” I am then expecting some analysis or discussion of jobs numbers.
Instead, 5 minutes on Romney’s campaign stops yesterday. No mention of the actual news. Grrr.
jayackroyd
@Paul:
So you’re saying you’re fine with SS cuts? As long as you get, what?
Tractarian
I was expecting these numbers to be a bit more unexpectedly better than expected.
Chyron HR
@jayackroyd:
No, but we’re quite happy with the complete lack of SS cuts.
I’m also pretty content with the non-invasion of Iran that Obama is forcing down our throats.
jayackroyd
@Chyron HR: Because he has fucking said so. http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/04/1140132/-No-President-Obama-and-Mitt-Romney-don-t-have-a-similar-position-on-Social-nbsp-Security
But whether you agree or not, you shouldn’t have a problem calling up your local congresscritter and getting a confirmation on that, right? That’s all I’m asking.
Original Lee
The wingers will sneer at the jobs report. I have two wingers flying nearby desks at my cube farm, and they have been bitching about how Obama has snookered the press because the numbers are always quietly revised later. Never mind that it has always been done that way. They didn’t complain about the jobs numbers under Bush – he was just trying to keep morale up by not telling us how many people had lost jobs in the preceding month – but now that that biracial Democratic Socialist is in charge, all numbers are suspect. It’s Chicago-style politics, they say.
To which I used to reply, but have now stopped because it wasn’t making a dent, that my mother is from Chicago, that I lived in Chicago for many years, and that fudging the jobs numbers the way they claim is not how things are done over there. The Daly machine was much more likely to knock on some doors and call in favors to get more people on the payroll for a few weeks than to fudge the numbers. I don’t know how Rahm rolls, though.
jayackroyd
@Chyron HR:
So you’re fine with Bowles-Simpson as the framework for the 4 trillion dollar grand bargain, right?
http://strengthensocialsecurity.org/sites/default/files/B-S%20Fact%20Sheet%20Updated_May%202012_0.pdf
pdf.
Look, I’m not saying you shouldn’t support this. I’m just saying you should acknowledge what you’re supporting.
FlipYrWhig
@jayackroyd:
First, of course, we have to figure out what counts as a “cut,” in order to avoid falling for demagoguery like the Republicans enjoy, e.g., representing savings as “cuts” because we end up spending less money in the long run, even if it’s for equivalent services. Classic case: encouraging plan doctors to substitute generic drugs for name-brands. That’s more an issue with Medicare, obviously. But, in general, I don’t want to fall for the scam where all instances of less money being spent are treated equally.
Social Security is a different case. There I’m open to the hypothetical possibility that promised benefits will at some point be higher than “necessary,” and I’m more concerned with maintaining retiree standards of living than maintaining a certain level of (ETA) steadily increasing check. But that’s not the first step I would take, not by a long shot. The first step I would take is to eliminate the cap on earnings subject to Social Security withholding. I don’t think there’s much justification for keeping that so artificially low. But, as you say, of all things to worry about, the one that isn’t a problem for 70-aught years doesn’t belong anywhere near the top of the list.
Cassidy
“Hey, I’m just asking that you be against C’thulu rising from the deep. No it hasn’t happenned, but nothings stopping you from calling the Coast Guard, right? That’s all I’m asking.”
Fucking skycrane.
Chyron HR
@jayackroyd:
Did you have to do some warm-up stretches before you twisted “I suspsect that we have somewhat similar positions” into “I HATE SOCIAL SECURITY RAAAR”?
Bobby Thomson
If anyone has already linked to this, I missed it.
xian
@dr. bloor: cue Jack Welch rambling on twitter about the bureau of labor statistic being in the tank for Obama
Tractarian
@Original Lee:
Did you mention that, recently, all of the quiet revisions have shown more jobs?
Chyron HR
@jayackroyd:
That’s funny, because what I actually said was that “it would be terrible for the country and political suicide for whoever does it.”
You understand that’s an ACTUAL QUOTE, visible right here on this blog, right? You really can’t spin that by posting random links and going “Obama totally says he’s going to steal all the SS money to buy gold rims for Air Force 1.”
xian
@jayackroyd: straw much?
i think firebaggers need a new number. we have the drone rave-up and the ballad of the social security sad sack sellout. can’t y’all mix it up with another worse than bush-ism to keep us moral manichean monsters on our toes?
The Red Pen
@Punchy:
According to what I’ve read, Charlie Daniels was a pretty cool guy until he had a stroke in 2003 and turned into a wingnut. I’ll grant him a (known) brain-damage exemption.
Original Lee
@Tractarian: Yes. But because the revisions actually got some press, this is part of BLS being in the tank for Obama. Basically, to them, if the numbers are good in the initial report, they have been revised upward to make the Prez look good. If the numbers are bad in the initial report, then obviously they don’t get much publicity, and the revised numbers (always revised upwards) get the publicity. They will think of a way to make it all about fake numbers, no matter what.
xian
@jayackroyd: please show evidence the president supports cuts to social security. your dkos diary does not count.
jayackroyd
@FlipYrWhig:
A “cut” is nothing tricky or complex at all. It’s a reduction in the expected value of your benefits at retirement. It’s increasing the retirement age. It’s lowering the COLA adjustment. It’s getting less per month than the fucking mailer you get at end of year.
There’s nothing subtle or complicated about this. If you leave the program alone, it’s fully funded so far out that these discussions are stupid. And, worse case, we’re at fully funded at 70 percent of projected value (which is more than the real value of current benefits). So there is no problem. There’s nothing to fix, other than the way out years, which are easily fixed by your proposal for lifting the cap.
There is NO reason to make this part of the austerity program. If the Obama administration wants to fire more government workers, let more state and local governments wither in the face of lower tax revenue streams, and cut spending at a three to one ratio of tax increases, that’s all fine. (Well actually, it’s incredibly stupid, but let that go.)
There is no earthly reason to bring SS into this. None. There’s no reason why “entitlement reform” should include SS. It’s fully funded, with a dedicate tax.
amk
@jayackroyd: It’s the good news of UE that brought you here, didn’t it ? Yes, obummer is gonna kill you all. Now go back to fdl.
jayackroyd
@xian:
The president has repeatedly expressed his support for the B-S framework, which has a core commitment to cutting SS, through an increase in the retirement age, and a substantial cut in the COLA calculation.
He did it again during the debates.
The 4 trillion dollar deal he is proposing cuts SS benefits.
I’ve posted the source material before, but here you go again.
http://jayackroyd.wordpress.com/2012/06/17/ss-source-material/
shortstop
I wish someone would ask the conspiracy theorists for details on how this all works. Does Obama, with his tyrant’s nature and northern urban disregard for states’ rights, have top-down direction of the people fiddling with BLS stats and the pollsters busily skewing in his favor? Or is this a disorganized army of lazy moochers individually serving their dear leader? I need specifics.
Maude
@rikyrah:
As soon as I heard the numbers, I thought of that.
dww44
@Paul: Yeah, right, the monied class, as well as the wannabe monied class, has always been in the tank for a Republican of any stripe. They are constitutionally unable to see the forest for the trees, vis-a-vis what’s really best for the overall economy, and the long term health of their pocket books. I know I worked in that business at a retail local level for 28 years. In 2000 one other female and the lone black retail broker were the only 3 of 50 plus who were publicly admitted Democrats. Did we ever get a hard time during the Bush v. Gore debacle
xian
@Original Lee: they keep getting revised better anyway, not woese
Tractarian
@Original Lee: Gotcha. Wingnut logic at work.
jayackroyd
I gotta go.
But I want to be clear about one thing. Everyone I’ve replied to here has agreed that cuts to Social Security benefits is a bad idea, right?
And that the president has never said he would cut Social Security benefits, right? That he’d veto a bill that had such a provision, right?
Or, okay, that he’d only cut those benefits if it was an important thing to do to achieve some policy objective like…..
xian
when did simpson-bowles become bowles-simpson?
and when did progressives become so naive about blue-ribbon commissions?
Paul
@jayackroyd:
Did you not read my posting?
Paul
@dww44:
My broker recently held a fundraiser for Romney. They were kind of surprised when I told them my accounts would be moved elsewhere.
magurakurin
@jayackroyd:
why don’t you just stay over at Atrios’s blog? Or is it because the comments over there are absolute shit and this is the only place anyone actually answers your comments? Why do feel so compelled to convince everyone here the error of their thinking? Is this like THE number one important blog in the universe? I mean, what the fuck difference does it really make if the people here don’t actually agree with you that Obama is going to gut social security? Surely, there are more fruitful pastures for you to find support in.
You think Obama is going to gut social security. People here think that would really suck if he did, but don’t think that is going to happen. You said your mind, people listened and didn’t agree. Hammering on and being a dick probably won’t change anyone’s mind if your awesome blog posts haven’t already.
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@The Red Pen:
Know how hyenas will follow a sick or wounded gazelle for miles as it limps, in the hopes of a free meal when it finally keels over? If the economy is the gazelle, most of the commenters at zero-hedge are the hyenas.
The general subtext seems to be “hurry up and move to a gold standard so I can lock in the gains I made shorting stocks back in 2008!”.
The Red Pen
@magurakurin:
Not true. Undecided voters who lean Romney love this approach.
(On another note: thanks to everyone for the replies about Zero Hedge.)
Ms. D. Ranged in AZ
Doesn’t the name Moroni sounds awfully close to moron? That can’t be coincidence.
FlipYrWhig
@jayackroyd: Um, yeah, I said much the same thing, in the second paragraph, the one about Social Security. You’re so hot for an argument you’re making one you didn’t find.
But, here’s the kind of thing that would be hypothetically defensible as a tweak to Social Security, IMHO. Introduce new indexing to slow the rate of growth in projected benefits WITHOUT reducing the standard of living for future beneficiaries AND AT THE SAME TIME _reduce_ the Social Security withholding from everyone’s paycheck. (Maybe eliminate the earnings cap as well, while we’re at it.) That might, if done just right and all at the same time, both guarantee a nice life for retirees and put more money into current wage-earners’ pockets. It would be bashed as cutting benefits, I realize, but IMHO my technocrat side doesn’t like the idea that benefits always have to go up or else everyone cries “cut.” And, when you get right down to it, if I had to choose, I’d rather see wage-earners get a hand up than retirees.
But AFAIK nothing I said has anything to do with any proposal ever discussed about the future of Social Security, which is fine and designed to stay fine — the point of a trust fund is to build it up, then spend it down, not to build it up then keep it built up forever.
And if we can’t do something about climate change, retiree benefit checks are going to be the least of our problems in 70+ years anyway.
Origuy
@xian:
This. A blue-ribbon commission is a way of putting all the people who want something done together so that nothing gets done. Has anything ever come out of any of them that resulted in legislation being signed?
FlipYrWhig
@Origuy: The Dept. of Homeland Security came out of the 9/11 commission report.
The Lodger
@eric: Krypton is an element, so, yeah
The Lodger
@Punchy: Charlie Welch bourbon?
Mmmmmm. Tasty.
Origuy
@FlipYrWhig: They changed the org chart.
jayackroyd
@FlipYrWhig:
Good points all. Especially climate. This is happening way way faster than projected–which is what you’d expect. You don’t get tenure predicting disasters that don’t come about, so the projections are going to tend to understate the reality.
jayackroyd
@magurakurin:
I think it is very important that we continue to make it very clear to our elected officials that Social Security is a core program that we have already made completely viable, on its own,for the foreseeable future (and beyond actually) and they should leave it alone.
I think when our elected officials appoint commissions to avoid responsibility and accountability for their actions, we should express consternation and dismay. When our most senior elected officials’ commissions advocate major reductions in social security benefits despite their being fully funded in a segregated, off-budget account, that we should loudly express consternation and dismay.
Even if it makes those elected officials uncomfortable. And, of course, it wouldn’t make them uncomfortable if they were indeed committed to the preservation of the program.
As for your get the heck out of our comment threads remarks, that neither becomes you, or reflects the values of this incredible BJ community.
Less Popular Tim
@SiubhanDuinne:
Jack Welch is 76, and has had 2 or 3 heart attacks as well as heart bypass surgery. Hence the one-foot-in-the-grave look.