One of the worst days of my life was the day after the 2004 election. I went to Ohio for three days canvassing with ACT. The night of the election, I saw the exit polls and was sure Kerry had won. Then at 5 a.m., I drove back, still not believing Kerry had lost.
I’m sure I would have felt much worse if I hadn’t been under such heavy sedation worked my ass off trying to defeat Bush.
The same goes this time. Whatever happens in November, you’ll feel a hell of a lot better if you don’t leave anything on the field leave everything on the field. I’m a misanthropic agoraphobe (John stole that descriptor from me) with a mild fear of dogs that was exacerbated by getting bit by one (not badly) in 2010 when I was out doing stuff for Dan Maffei.
If I can do it, so can you. In the meantime, give up a little something something for Obama.
Don’t trip, organize.
Joel
I don’t have much to give, but I chipped in a little. Anything to get us that W.
Walker
How do you have the time to do all this and keep up an academic job?
Comrade Jake
The headlines in Europe after that election said it all: “HOW CAN MILLIONS OF AMERICANS BE SO STUPID?”
carolus
Ummm..the metaphor is that you want to leave everything on the field.
But your heart’s in the right place.
Violet
Does this post have a title?
trollhattan
Big Dog in town, stumping for tight House races.
http://blogs.sacbee.com/capitolalertlatest/2012/10/bill-clinton-stumps-for-california-dems-in-tight-congressional-races.html
I’m trusting the Dems to not panic…yet. Also, too, the UCD cops behaved and kept the pepper spray holstered.
Bill E Pilgrim
@carolus: Maybe DougJ got it mixed up with “Clean your plate”.
@Violet: “Does this post have a title?”
No, he didn’t want to leave anything on the field. It was symbolic.
Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ
@Walker:
I drove my ass back to teach my classes in 2004, motherfucker.
eric
I will match every contribution, no matter how small up to $250 tonight.
ETA — is already there, so you are on your honor ;)
Comrade Jake
Nate Silver says with the latest updates, Obama is now 70-30, or where he was before the conventions.
Of course earlier in the day he tweeted about how it was possible their forecast might have the single biggest daily swing, to which Sully’s head exploded.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Violet: This post has no title, just words and a tune.
I just set up recurring hundred dollar/week donation just before I saw this. I’m with BJAB in spirit.
eric
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: nice work
Hill Dweller
I still can’t believe Willard is this close, despite running with a warmed over Bush policy platform.
We have the most ignorant electorate in recorded human history.
Amir Khalid
@Violet:
Apparently not. The Recent Comments box looks a bit odd right now: all five comments listed say “[commenter] on ” followed by nothing.
ETA: And now DougJ has fixed it.
tBone
What a load of touchy-feely cheerleading crap. Every real Democrat knows that the proper response right now is preemptive moping, hair-lighting and garment-rending in the face of certain defeat.
Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ
@carolus:
Thanks
@Violet:
WordPress dropped the title on me twice. Weird.
James E. Powell
Election Day, in fact Election Weekend, I was in Henderson, Nevada, doing GOTV for the Kerry campaign. For the last few hours of Election Day, people were honking horns at us (we were wearing Kerry gear), giving us the thumbs up. A man stopped and told us that Ohio had been called for Kerry, that we had won. We were elated, but tired. Two of us ferried the rented vans back then made our way to the Rio where Harry Reid’s party was. Just as we walked in the room, they called it for Bush.
I have never fully recovered from that experience.
Pyro Joe
Count me in. I’m still convinced that we’re going to be over this hysteria in a few weeks, but if this wind’s up going down to the wire I’d rather spend election night knowing that I did everything I possibly could.
OT: Do we have any Coloradans here? If so, could any of you explain why the hell we’re falling behind there?
scav
@Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ: And here I was thinking you’d gone all highbrow and were quoting Phillip Glass!
geg6
I with you, Doug. Fuck the whining and crying. Give til it hurts, with cash or feet on the ground or both. But shut up about that debate and work as hard as Obama has. The idea that people now feel free to call him lazy, people on our side!, just motivates me all the more. Fuck that shit. I’m a fighter, not a whiner.
muddy
Just wanted to tell you that Jon Stewart referenced totebags again last night. I think he likes you…
taylormattd
@Walker: zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
James E. Powell
@Hill Dweller:
I still can’t believe Willard is this close, despite running with a warmed of Bush policy platform.
I don’t think that it’s been made clear enough that Romney is basically Bush on every major policy. I know that people still remember how bad things were with Bush, but it would do well to remind everyone and remind them that it was the policies, not Bush himself, that caused the economic collapse.
Linda Featheringill
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2012/10/09/cnn-poll-race-tightening-up-in-battleground-ohio/
CNN poll in Ohio is 51% Obama and 47% Romney.
So what’s the thing about suburban voters? White, probably. Middle class. I’ve just never seen them separated out that way.
Violet
@Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ: Title seems to be back now.
feebog
Finally had a chance to get into the weeds with the Pew Poll. More than a couple problemas, but here are the two most glaring:
Likely voters from the South:419
Likely voters from the NE and West combined:424
Thats right, the sample size from the south was almost equvilant to the sample sizes from the Northeast and West combined. You think that may be why they got the voter ID weighted in favor of Republicans?
Second problem; of the 1042 likely voters sampled, 57 were latino. Thats less than 5.5% of the likely voters. Anyone want to bet $10,000 that the voting latino voting population will be 5.5% come November 6?.
All in all a mind numbingly skewed poll.
eric
@James E. Powell: he is only close to the extent that the team down by three touchdowns in the third quarter is down two touchdowns int he fourth. the electoral college math is still terrible for Mitt. if you looked at a static picture, it is not close….if you impose the dynamics of a steadily moving comeback then it appears much closer.
mandarama
I just gave $25 through the ActBlue link…it’s not much but I donated through Obama’s site two weeks ago as well. Since I live in TN, there’s not a snowball’s chance that we’ll turn the state…but our little blue metropolitan enclave was celebratory last Election Day, anyway. I spent all day driving voters to the polls. It was an unbelievable experience…I look like just what I am, a round, frowsy, suburban mom with a minivan. I went into areas of our city where I stood out, to say the least, and everyone treated me with such kindness. Several of the people I drove were first-time voters even though they were in their 40s. And because I had my kids’ car seats in the car, I was able to take one young couple to vote–they had planned for one parent to stay home with the 3 little ones and the other one would vote, but I piled all 5 of them into the minivan and both parents got to vote while I played with their kids.
I’ma do it all over again this year. It’s a wonderful way to serve on Election Day!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Linda Featheringill: So what’s the thing about suburban voters? White, probably. Middle class.
That’s how I read it. I think between the new emphasis on MedicAid, and Joe Biden getting out his pommade and his stories about old friends living in dignity thanks to the safety net, we’ll see some movement among “older voters”
Lojasmo
In for $100. Another $200 next week.
eric
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: all obama needs is ONE question from a beneficiary of Obamacare at the town hall and that could be end. Someone that asks mitt about a REAL pre-existing condition. the lack of empathy and the lack of any substantive help would be brutal.
nellcote
The media not having exit polls in 19 states this year is just weird.
AliceBlue
@Hill Dweller:
I’m gobsmacked over women moving from Obama to Romney. Apparently it’s because Obama didn’t talk about how ghastly Republicans are on women’s issues so now they’re gonna vote for Willard. Good Christ almighty. I feel like I’m in an episode of The Twilight Zone.
Joel
@feebog: Pew is typically rock-solid. But in chasing numbers after the debates, there might be an “enthusiasm effect”, especially given the glowing reviews on Romney’s side and the wailing despair on Obama’s. Time will tell. We’ll revisit when this week is over and the dust settles.
danimal
The polls will bounce around and come back to stasis. The debates will create a flurry of noise and fluster. And the conservative MOTUs will remind everyone that if Romney wins, these insufferable pricks will be deciding war and peace, your personal health choices, your tax rates and whether to continue the New Deal.
Keep working and keep faith in the American people. And somebody give Sully some plastic sheets so he doesn’t need a new mattress.
Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ
@mandarama:
Thanks!
Tom Levenson
Wife and I broke our rule and both gave today. She’s supposed to be the only one pulling the donate lever in our house, but I couldn’t stop myself this a.m.
We’ll continue to fork over.
mandarama
I also want to add: the Veep Debate is being held at my (and my husband’s) beloved alma mater, Centre College in KY. That stage they’re gonna be on? I gave a speech about being from Mississippi to 1200 people there once, during a symposium on race that focused on Anne Moody’s _Coming of Age in Mississippi_. I met elderly Dizzy Gillespie on that stage and when I asked if he wanted to put my program against my back so it would be easier to sign, he said, “I’d rather sign it on your front!” I also met Maya Angelou on that stage. I walked across it to graduate.
I want Joe Biden to mop that stage floor with Paul Ryan. I want that to happen really, really badly.
HRA
I give directly to the campaign on a monthly basis. I did give an extra after the Flotus convention speech and after Bill Clinton.
Right now I am not wound up as I was earlier in dreading what may happen in the polls after the debate. Nate Silver has kept me sane so far.
I loved watching a vignette of Joe Biden in debates on NOW. I came home a while ago after shopping for the necessary drinks and treats for Thursday night. Bring it on!
CA Doc
I met Nancy Pelosi at a DCCC fundraiser for women Congressional candidates today and Gloria Steinem was a guest speaker. It was awesome and there was a lot of energy!
Redshift
@James E. Powell: I was in an election night party in 2000 (the first public one I’d ever been to), already knowing that we had lost a senate seat to evil doofus George Allen, when they “uncalled” Florida for Gore. I never want to have a worse election experience than that, so I’ve been on the streets for every campaign since.
A drop in polling after a debate? Pfft! That’s nothing.
Blue Shark
Kerry won in Ohio and walked away from the presidency. (His REPUBLICAN attorneys advised him that he lost, so he called it a day and went wind surfing. ARRRRRRRRRG!)
…The numbers were diddled.
…then a minor party ponied up the money for a recount that Ken Blackwell shit all over.
…Yes, it was not reported that way, but that is none-the-less what happened.
TheMightyTrowel
Just moved house so it’s real tight this month, but I kicked in another $25. I should be able to kick in a bit more before the election.
gogol's wife
I’ve been donating to Obama and to Chris Murphy. The Linda MacMahon people came by our house while we were still at work yesterday. How I wish I’d been there when they came! They would have gotten an earful. I was so disappointed I dreamed that Linda herself came by and I excoriated her.
SiubhanDuinne
@Comrade Jake:
To this day I have posted in my office (on the inside of an obscure cupboard door, which nobody else is likely to open) a mock Time Magazine cover with a corner banner saying “Black Tuesday Coverage,” a photo of Dubya looking stupid* and the headline “WE ARE FUCKED.”
*But I repeat myself.
Comrade Jake
Not sure what spurred it, but Seth Mnookin has been viciously making fun of Megan McArdle on twitter for the past couple of hours. Good stuff.
FlipYrWhig
@AliceBlue:
Yeah, I know that one poll says that, but, come on, there’s no way that could possibly have happened. That’s the kind of thing that demonstrates how out of whack a poll can be if the sample is all jacked up.
Just Some Fuckhead
OMG, I’m still pissed at the Great Orange Satan for making me think Kerry was going to win.
FlipYrWhig
@Just Some Fuckhead: I was at a laundromat in Philadelphia when the election coverage started. That’s a gray place full of loss, lint and despair on a good day. And it was not a good day.
different-church-lady
You too, huh? I’ve only been more depressed once in my life, and that was over a love affair.
I was in NH canvasing. One of the kids I was with had “friends in Biden’s organizatiion.” The polls closed, we headed back to HQ, his phone rang, he chatted a bit, closed his phone and said, “They’ve pretty much got it in the bag.”
The crash from that was pretty damn heavy.
Gypsy howell
It’s all Mitt Romney signs around here in Chester County PA, Mitt signs all the way down. I haven’t seen one Obama sign. It’s just fucking depressing. I do not want to wake up to Nov 3, 2004 again. Ever.
BTW, just got robocalled by mike huckabee for Todd akin.
trollhattan
@Gypsy howell:
Jeez, you need either an “Obama” sign or a “For Sale” sign. That’s depressing.
trollhattan
@CA Doc:
Nancy SMASH! She’s my political hero, what a great opportunity.
kay
Good post.
70 to win are fine odds. I know that could change, but you all also could get hit by a bus :)
I don’t think the lying liar can win w/out Ohio.
No one here knows who Andrew Sullivan is, BTW.
Yutsano
@TheMightyTrowel: Did I tell you I had a friend move to Brisbane? She’s just hitting her initial culture shocks!
carolus
@Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ: Nao problema.
You’re absolutely right; the press wants to make this a horse race–it’s good for the ratings. That’s why we see see a ton of press on how Willard looked good at the debate without really questioning the fact he lied his butt off.
realbtl
I’m in for $100 here. I also dropped off $50 worth of Costco munchies at the local Jon Tester office. They are doing a good job to try and keep that slimeball Rehberg out of the Senate.
Richard
I had a bad feeling after the 2000 selection, and a far worse one after 2004. I was quite depressed because I just knew we were going in for pretty bad times with Bush’s second term, and the meltdown of 2008 is pretty much the kind of thing I was worried about.
AWL
Instead of spending my free time checking out sites just to worry myself even more, I’m going to be phone banking for Obama this weekend. This will be the first time I ever volunteered for a campaign.
The Ohio numbers should also help quell any talks of doom for the time being.
La Caterina
I left it all on the road last time- drove 12 hours to Ohio and worked a 15 hr shift outside a poll in Elyria.
This time around I have a full time job. We have the day off, but I need to do something closer to home. Anyone doing election protection in PA?
Calouste
@feebog:
Pew is supposed to “weigh” its numbers to adjust them to demographic reality. Problem there of course is, if the sample that makes up your data is far removed from reality, you are going to have some large margins of error in the sections of your data that are undersampled. Then that MoE is amplified by increasing the weight of the undersampled sections and decreasing the weight of the oversampled sections.
gogol's wife
@Richard:
I remember watching the first Bush-Kerry debate, and my husband said, “It may already be too late” (i.e., even if Kerry won). Little did he know how much further we could sink. And 4-8 years of Romney will make Bush look like a picnic.
RaflW
$60,547 at about 6:45pm CDT.
And it’s moving! Not just me just gave…that’s kinda cool, seeing the temp rise, knowing it was at like $57k not that long ago…
magurakurin
@Calouste:
No, the polls are what they are, imperfect individually, but a barometer collectively. There is no question that Obama was hurt by his debate performance. To try and deny that and search for some bias in the polls is folly. We can’t be joyful when our guy is leading in the polls and then call the polls total bullshit when he is losing. Obama himself has admitted he fucked up. I’ll lay big odds that he isn’t going to fuck up a second time.
Obama’s biggest weakness is also one of his biggest assets and the thing that makes him a better man than me: his unending belief in the basic good of his fellow human beings. He also gives the populace too much credit for being thoughtful and paying attention. The electorate is filled with morons who are impressed by a dick like Rmoney lying and bullying an opponent. They are impressed by it because they too are lying, bullying assholes. There is no good in them.
I admire Obama for trying to find the good in the hearts of all humankind, but if I were in his shoes, I would have given up long ago and just started droning the opposition party. It wouldn’t be pretty and that’s why it’s better that Obama is the man and not me.
I’m sure Obama is going to be a different animal at the next debate. They aren’t going to lie down and die. In all likelihood Obama is still going to win reelection. But trying to deny that he lost big on Wednesday, doesn’t go very far in helping that to come about.
Accept the loss, and keep swinging.
digitals3rf
Just voted early in Ohio, in Cleveland, with thousands of others before 9pm tonight at the Board of Elections. Very smooth and well run. Very diverse and paperwork all done carefully, with a thick old fashioned fill-in-the-bubbles type ballot.
We’re building a firewall for Obama-san. I only hope it’s either not needed or tough enough!
Shoot Me Now
Just put $25 in the kitty. Wish I could do more but hope I was in the window for the matching amount.
TheMightyTrowel
@Yutsano: Tell her welcome to the arse end of the planet! I’m in the ACT so really in the middle of nowhere, but I seem not to have gone through the culture shock this time (too much work). My partner is moving here next month so I’m bracing myself for his version.
Culture shock is no fun, but you pull out of it eventually. alcohol and chocolate help.
Baud
I just returned from phone banking.
Fired up! Ready to go!
schrodinger's cat
[email protected]
Can we please move Daily to Dish to blogs we mock column? Andrew Sullivan now says he is not invested in a candidate who was goofing off (his words not mine) instead of preparing for the debate. I found Balloon Juice because of Dish, I am now going to stop reading it completely.
catclub
@feebog: Gotta unskew those polls! ;)
YellowJournalism
@schrodinger’s cat: What’s up with the goofing off and arrogance memes? He was goofing off before the debate by going to Hoover Dam (But playing Jenga with he famiky was totally adorable, right?) supposedly because he was overconfident going into the debate, which in itself is “disrespectful” to Romney. Then he was arrogant because he came away from the debate thinking he has crushed Romney, while his poor staffers were disappointed. I heard this all on Canadian conservative talk radio, complete wih the old TelePrompTer jokes.
And I can’t help but feel “arrogant” and “goofing off” are steps away from saying Obama ate too much fried chicken and watermelons before the debate.
schrodinger's cat
@YellowJournalism: You are right it was borderline racist.
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
The current numbers are 6888 to 5443, in favor of the Preseident, in the Busken Cookie Poll. FWIW, the bakery owner is a BYU grad and also one of the founders of the BYU Marriott School.
The numbers moved from yesterday’s tally at 6735-5408. And there are bakery locations throughout the greater Cincinnati region, including suburbs where you don’t see many Obama yard signs.
Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ
@schrodinger’s cat:
Done
RaflW
@schrodinger’s cat:
Andrew Sullivan has serious daddy issues. When he gets disappointed by someone he reveres, he reverts to childish tantrums of ‘betrayal.’
Its embarrassing to watch.
@Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ: Done
Awesome.
fuckwit
OK I get it now. I’ve been amazed and a little lulled into a false sense of security watching the RMoney campaign continue to pander to the wingnuts all the way up until long after their convention, and refuse to tack to the center, figureing, HAHAHA, we won, they can’t pretend to be centrists!
Well, I got punked, and it appears the Obama campaign did too.
Just at the last possible minute, at the fucking debates, here comes Mr. Moderate Massachussets Democrat RMoney. Pretending to be just like Obama, except white and rich. Nothing scary about him at all! No radical right-wing agenda there. He’s a moderate, trust him. Just relax.
He loves women, and teachers, and the middle class, and Medicare!
What the screaming fuck. Well this is the Etch-A-Sketch right here. And it appears to be working.
I have no idea what to do about that, except just continue to make calls. So that’s what I’ma go do.
YellowJournalism
@fuckwit: Short of taking a small child to the debate, having someone pretend to start shooting with the hope that Mitt grabs the kid for a human shield, I’d say you’re on the right course.
PrahaPartizan
@different-church-lady: Church_Lady, I canvassed in NH that weekend through Election Day too and remember Terry McAuliffe speaking to us volunteers in Nashua close to the end of the day, about 6:30 PM to tell us that the exit polls from OH looked very, very good for Kerry. Of course, we all found out later that somehow those exit polls were supposedly imaginary while official tallies which had not been fully secured were supposed to give the election to Bush in OH.