One of the interesting facts about recent polls is that the national polls are swinging around while the battleground state polls are pretty stable, and mostly favor Obama. Ohio’s a good example, where Romney’s current +2.3 advantage in the nationwide vote is not mirrored in Obama’s still razor-thin Obama winning margin.
My take on this is simple: the Obama campaign has been and will be spending money and time in states where winning matters, and in those states, their ads and ground game are working. The debate and the ensuing coverage moved voters who had an ill-defined picture of Romney. Places where Romney had already been defined by months of advertising, free media, candidate appearances and voter outreach were less likely to buy what Romney was selling. Greg Sargent:
Geoff Garin, the pollster for the Obama-allied Priorities USA, tells me that his polling shows that views of Romney are more fixed in the battlegrounds than nationally. “In the swing states, voters are much more apt and able to quote back the main case against Romney,” he tells me.
Garin adds that his polling has tested voter reaction to various arguments against Romney, such as the idea that his economic policies would favor the wealthy or burden the middle class. He says voter agreement with those suggestions is “higher where the advertising has occurred,” and adds: “All the swing state advertising has had a measurable and lasting impact.”
Waiting so long to unveil Moderate Mitt was a good surprise tactic, and it clearly worked in the first debate. But it also had a major downside in swing states, because it gave the Obama campaign months to remind everyone about Severe Conservative Mitt.
Update: Also, too, the Romney campaign pays too much for ads because they’re smarter than everyone else.
gene108
Part of the split maybe Republican leaners, who thought to sit this election out, but got a bit of enthusiasm after the first debate.
If Utah gets a higher than expected turn out of Romney supporters, it won’t be terribly significant to the overall election.
Violet
At lest the Obama team has their eye on the ball, even if Obama’s first debate wasn’t what supporters had hoped. The “narrative” should change today.
General Stuck
Swing state voters think about this election more, because they are bombarded with ads from both camps, as well as other messaging vehicles. Unless they live under a rock, or blow up their teevees, the exposure is relentless. It shouldn’t be a secret to anyone at this stage, that most of what the goopers put out is basic shell game bullshit on screwing the middle class and poor. With strained theories concerning gravity and economics and trust us cause we’re white like most of you, that never comes true. And after thirty years of the trickle down bs, folks are starting to ask questions, the ones with a brane.
Joel
@gene108: Yep. A big part of this is that Mitt Romney is going to destroy Obama by unprecedented margins… in Alabama, Mississippi, and Arkansas.
rlrr
@Joel:
States Obama was never going to win in any case (I wonder why?).
jrg
“brain”, Stuck.
I think Obama might be able to whittle away at some of Multiple Choice Mitt’s base support. Republican candidates need the base to turn out. There is a reason McCain picked Palin, and it clearly wasn’t for her finely honed ability to reach out to centrists.
Villago Delenda Est
Rmoney adviser Grifters are grifting for every last fucking simoleon.
They’re amateur political operatives, but they know how to skim that campaign cash and pocket it for themselves.
It’s all about the benjamins with these vile Mammon-worshiping creatures.
Culture of Truth
That’s an interesting point. The very name “battleground” state implies fluctuation, one which is up in the air, whereas some traditionally “battleground” states may actually be more stable than others
MikeJ
I had noticed I see Obama ads all the time and I’m not sure I’ve ever seen a Romney ad. I don’t watch broadcast TV. When you say broadcast TV to me I think of my retired parents watching NCIS and other fare aimed at the elderly.
The rest of Romney’s ad buying “strategy” is just stupid. Thank god they didn’t have enough sense to hire somebody who knew what they were doing.
rlrr
@MikeJ:
The rest of Romney’s ad buying “strategy” is just stupid. Thank god they didn’t have enough sense to hire somebody who knew what they were doing.
And yet the myth Romney is some sort of fiscal genius persists….
Hal
Moderate Republicans baffle me. They are supporting a candidate they hope will somehow turn the party back to a more moderate Republican Party (that never really existed), while the other half of the party is convinced Mitt will do the bidding of the parties conservative leaders and purge all the moderates.
Romney cannot Govern moderately or he will lose support from the folks who count now in the Republican Party, the teabaggers, and Limbaughs, and Fox News watchers. Moderates are voting for someone because they hope his deeply, seriously conservative facade is an act, and that is just plain fucking stupid.
Porco Rosso
My response when folks say Biden was mean. “Some politicians get clobbered so easy”
MrSnrub
Thoroughly Moderate Mitty.
General Stuck
Nope, it was that she still looked good in a bikini lounging around the cement pond. Too bad she dint have a brane.
MikeJ
@Hal:
That’s not true. There were plenty of moderate Republicans in the 1950s and before. I don’t think there have been any, at least not in appreciable numbers, for close to fifty years though.
rlrr
@Hal:
They are supporting a candidate they hope will somehow turn the party back to a more moderate Republican Party (that never really existed),
Although a more moderate Republican party may never really have existed (at least in the 50 years), I’m old enough to remember when moderate Republican roamed the earth and weren’t always shunned by the brethren.
EconWatcher
I think the Obama people overall deserve a lot of credit, but the Big Bird ad has to go. I just saw it while travelling in Indiana. I can’t see how it would help with anyone not on our sidea already. Heck, I’m on our side, and I find it irritating and unpersuasive.
hep kitty
I DEFINITELY think this debate will be great for fundraising. I know I’m sending money and I haven’t even seen the damned thing yet!
I disliked Biden for voting for the war back in 2004. But, boy oh boy, I absolutely luuuuurve this man now.
And, you know, during the convention, when you watched and listened to the Obamas and the Bidens, you can see that these 4 people genuinely love each other.There was nothing fake about it. It was just so touching.
I’m a rather emotional person and I love the fact that Joe and Jill get a little weepy. Not about themselves, like Boehner, but out of genuine emotion and love and concern for others.
Omnes Omnibus
Don’t people recall the D primary in 2008 where Obama quietly went around maximizing his delegate count? This is how Obama and his campaign staff work. They are, I believe, ignoring entirely the national polls and working maximizing EC votes.
Or something like that.Suffern Ace
The voters I am concerned about right now are rhe dem Leaners who are thinking of sitting this out. You see them in the difference between polls of registered voters, Where Obama still has a lead, and likely voters. It looks to be about 1 in 20 registered voters who would vote dem are answering the screen questions in a way that makes it look like they won’t be at the polls. Coaxing them is where the effort needs to be. They aren’t undecided. They need to be coaxed from their homes. Not certain who they are.
hep kitty
And, yes, considering the fact that Ryan crafted the “marvelous” budget plan that Mitt intends to implement and that the media was so ga-ga over, I think this VP debate should have great significance and a much larger audience than your typical VP debate.
Of course, I’m just guessing. Wonder what the ratings figures show?
Maude
The Republicans, the party of torture, calling Biden mean. Really?
Walker
This is how Obama beat Hilary. Let the fools track the popular vote while he focuses on the EVs.
geg6
@Or something like that.Suffern Ace:
That’s exactly who I’m aimed at with canvassing and phone banking.
The Obama operation is smart about that. They keep a data base of every conversation. We don’t waste time and effort on people who are already convinced Obama voters (though we touch base closer to the election). We don’t waste time with the people who are NEVER going to vote for the blah commie Muslim dude. We hone in on the people who need to be convinced to get out there and vote.
And can we, please, put up the Act Blue thermometer? Pretty please?
Kadzimiel
@Maude:
Spanking Paul Ryan’s skinny ass is clearly much worse than waterboarding.
Princess
I’m guessing a not insubstantial portion of the difference between the cost of Obama’s ads and Romney’s ads is going straight into the pockets of Romney’s in-house ad team. Grifters gotta grift.
zzyzx
@Or something like that.Suffern Ace:
Last night probably helped with that a whole lot.
RaflW
@gene108: Yeah, I noticed Montana moved several points towards Mitt after the debate. Those EC votes were Mitt’s already. So Whoop! Romney got some more votes. Maybe in Texas, too.
I do worry (hey! I’m a liberal) that we’re at more of a risk of a very narrow popular vote (or, dare I say it, a slight Mittvantage) but with all the solid swing-state work, that Obama wins the E.C.
There are so many ways the wingers can freak out and (futher) seek to legitimize Obama. A pop vote/EC split is high on the list of dangerously fractured government & populace.
Linda Featheringill
@MikeJ: #9
Hehehehe.
Bear in mind that I am elderly but I don’t like NCIS. This is the perfect putdown.
[still chuckling]
The Dangerman
@Maude:
Republicans, also the party of classlessness; anyone else note how, fairly early in the debate, Ryan talked about a Family being in a deadly car accident? I wonder if that was intentional. Oh, wait, no I don’t.
The only thing sweeter than having Obama win the EC while having Romney win the popular would be to have it all come down to one state putting Obama over the top. Hey, ho, way to go Ohio.
rlrr
@Linda Featheringill:
On the other hand, my elderly parents pretty much spend all their TV time watching Fox “News” and NCIS…
Elizabelle
@EconWatcher:
Interesting that you saw it in Indiana.
Maybe it’s up to entertain and console depressed Democrats. Because they have GOT to turn out and keep Richard Mourdock out of the Senate. He is Jim DeMint quality stupid.
What did you think of any of the Mourdock/Donnelly ads you saw?
How are the campaigns appealing to Hoosiers?
Bokonon
I am constantly amazed of the near-tsunami of Obama hatred that the GOP has stirred up in the red states (which the GOP can then make flare when they hit the right buttons). I talk with friends and family members there, and they are bug-eyed with fury and dislike. And when you press them for details, you get back bonkers talk. A scree of stuff that is a combination of disinformation and assertions and anecdotes that doesn’t add up (like … Obama is violating the Constitution by refusing to enforce the Declaration of Independence to protect the unborn? Trying to give away the Falkland Islands to Argentina? Bowing to the King of Saudi Arabia is treason? Michele Obama said she hates America? Secret tax increases?)
What Romney did the other night was a respectable, pin-striped corporate smiley version of one of those attack lines – and Romney pointedly reinforced every trope that his party and their media allies have created about Obama over the last five years. The sounding board was there – and Romney hit all the right notes, and pushed all the right buttons. Socialism! Weakness! Angry mobs! Lying! Tax increases! Government takeovers! Inexperience!
And Obama killed himself by just standing there without challenging these things, and not defending himself. Not only did it look weak – it looked like he had no defense.
So … maybe things aren’t as bad in the swing states. Great. Maybe the firestorm has been whipped up again among the media consumers in the American who are most likely to be receptive to the big “OBAMA SUX” narrative. So the reaction may be slightly less bad in the places where Obama has, you know, actually laid down some defenses, so people aren’t so conditioned to dislike him by the years of beatings. But Obama still did himself major damage in the debate. He allowed himself to get punked – and worse, that punking reinforced years of groundwork by his enemies.
In politics, you have to defend yourself effectively, or your enemies will define you … and all the reality in the world won’t save you once emotions and impressions are already formed.
Kirbster
Thankfully, politicians have not hit upon buying advertising time on the On-Demand channel of my cable system (Comcast), at least not here in southeastern MA.
RaflW
@hep kitty:
Not exactly a ratings answer, but Ezra Klein mentioned last night that the O-R debate generated 10+ million tweets, but the B-R debate, 3.5 million.
So there’s one indicator of difference in interest level.
FlipYrWhig
@Or something like that.Suffern Ace:
Not that you don’t already know this, but this has been the case for a long, long time. Well before Obama, “likely voters” have skewed more Republican than “registered voters.”
indycat
@Elizabelle: delurking to respond. I live in Indianapolis. Donnelly’s latest ad proudly proclaims that he supports extending the Bush tax cuts and a balanced budget amendment. Haven’t yet figured out how that makes him any different from Mourdock.
hep kitty
@Maude:
Gossamer Egos
Despite all their macho-posturing, their fee fees are tender, delicate and easily bruised. They must be handled with the utmost care and caution, as you would an egg precariously balanced on a piece of dental floss, as they scream epithets at you and accuse you of sacrificing babies on the altar of socialism, all the while.
After all, we Dems can be a brutal bunch and compassion is not exactly our forte.
Cacti
@RaflW:
Ohio is Obama’s firewall, and it’s barely moved at all. Even assuming the best case scenario for Mittens in the post-debate polls, he swings Florida, Virginia, and Colorado over into his column, along with flipping North Carolina and Indiana from 2008…
He still loses 256 to 282
Let’s be exceptionally generous and say Wisconsin flips for Ryan
He still loses 266 to 272
Bottom line, the old saw that a Republican can’t win without Ohio holds true.
Joel
@Bokonon: Yes, Obama did real damage to himself with his debate performance. Just like Romney did real damage to himself with his remarks about half of America. The difference is that the debate performance is just that: a performance. Its a soft effect and it did not reveal anything fundamentally about Obama or his character. On the other hand, Romney’s comments were a window into his real character, and most people don’t like what they see.
geg6
@Linda Featheringill:
Well, you’re buying into the idea that NCIS is some sort of rightwing nutter fantasy for “old” people. Actually, it has quite liberal values, despite being about the military, the Navy specifically. You should watch it some time and, if you’ve watched it over the years, you’d know how many liberal ideals that show has showcased, subtly but smartly, over all that time.
Mark Harmon is executive producer. Mark Harmon is not a rightwing nutcase. Far from it. I watch it every week and enjoy it quite a bit. It has had very nuanced writing about torture, racial and ethnic profiling, the relationship between the US and Israel, Afghanistan, the price we pay for the war on drugs…and just some fun murder mystery.
But I guess I’m fair game to be called “old” (is 53 old?) and laughed at by people who have never watched.
geg6
@Bokonon:
I thank you for your concern.
Felanius Kootea
I’ve been thinking about the Biden Ryan debate and while I thought Joe had many strong moments, this exchange about personal generosity versus policies that improve everyone’s lives is still resonating. It’s at the heart of the GOP versus Dems approach to things:
Ryan:
He talks about Detroit. Mitt Romney’s a car guy. They keep misquoting him, but let me tell you about the Mitt Romney I know. This is a guy who — I was talking to a family in Northborough, Massachusetts the other day, Cheryl and Mark Nixon (sp). Their kids were hit in a car crash, four of them — two of them, Rob (sp) and Reid (sp), were paralyzed. The Romneys didn’t know them. They went to the same church. They never met before.
Mitt asked if he could come over on Christmas. He brought his boys, his wife and gifts. Later on he said, I know you’re struggling, Mark (sp). Don’t worry about their college; I’ll pay for it….
Biden:
Look, I don’t doubt his personal generosity, and I understand what it’s like. When I was a little younger than the congressman, my wife was in an accident, killed my daughter and my wife, and my two sons survived. I have sat in the homes of many people who’ve gone through what I get through because the one thing you can give people solace is to know they know you’ve been through it, that they can make it. So I don’t doubt his personal commitment to individuals.
But you know what, I know he had no commitment to the automobile industry. He just let — he said, let it go bankrupt, period, let it drop out. All this talk — we saved a million jobs. Two hundred thousand people are working today. And I have never met two guys who are more down on America across the board. We’re told everything is going bad. We have 5.2 million new jobs, private sector jobs. We need more, but 5.2 million — if they’d get out of the way, if they get out of the way and let us pass the tax cut for the middle class, make it permanent, if they get out of the way and pass the — pass the jobs bill, if they get out of the way and let us allow 14 million people who are struggling to stay in their homes because their mortgages are upside-down, but they never missed a mortgage payment — just get out of the way.
Stop talking about how you care about people. Show me something. Show me a policy. Show me a policy where you take responsibility.
And by the way, they talk about this Great Recession if it fell out of the sky, like, oh my goodness, where did it come from? It came from this man voting to put two wars in a credit card, to at the same time put a prescription drug benefit on the credit card, a trillion- dollar tax cut for a — very wealthy. I was there. I voted against him. I said, no, we can’t afford that. And now all of a sudden these guys are so seized with a concern about the debt that they created.
Cacti
@geg6:
When I was a young pup, I’d have called it old. Now that I’m 30-something, I call it middle aged. ;-)
aimai
@Or something like that.Suffern Ace:
Just talking to my (non citizen) cleaning lady–very pro Obama but not voting because she can’t. Her daughter, however, can and I just got her a voter registration card. My cleaning lady was very upset and worried because she had heard that Obama’s debate performance was terrible. It doesn’t “matter” for her because she can’t vote–but it matters because in a blue state with a razor thin margin of error in the senate race you need an upbeat overall story line. I’m astounded that her daughter isn’t registered to vote because she is in college–can’t believe that the college dems didn’t find her and register her. I’ll be going down on Sunday morning to start working with the Warren people on GOTV through the last month but I shouldn’t have waited this long. I did a little at the start and I’ll do a lot now but voter registration is closed in a week. My huge bad.
aimai
Linda Featheringill
@geg6:
I’m glad you enjoy the show.
Actually, I suspect that I watch some stuff that wouldn’t appeal to the madding crowd. Especially since I leaned how to stream shows online.
Sarah, Proud and Tall
@Felanius Kootea:
Great minds etc.
geg6
@Linda Featheringill:
Yeah, well, everyone here raves and raves about the stupidest show I’ve ever clapped my eyes on (are you people kidding about that cheesy piece of absolutely horrible writing and acting, Dr. Who? I’m totally convinced that everyone who loves that show is being punked or is so hipper-than-thou that they can’t see how bad it is), so I guess I can’t bitch if people have no idea that there is actually depth to a popular show like NCIS.
Sarah, Proud and Tall
@geg6:
I like Doctor Who and NCIS.
Bulworth
So Mittens is leading nationally by 2? That’s not good. Not all that reassured by state-by-state polling. Sigh.
Joel
@Bulworth: O+2 according to Gallup.
http://www.gallup.com/poll/150743/Obama-Romney.aspx
Suffern ACE
@FlipYrWhig: Yes. I realize that. 5% (1 in 20) is actually a smaller number than it usually is.
Linda Featheringill
@geg6: $48
Dr. Who:
I think the quality of that show depends on the ability of the actor who plays The Doctor. They’ve had a couple of Doctors that helped me suspend my disbelief but not lately. I now tend to watch one show a season and then sigh and walk off.
But you’re right in that lots and lots of people really enjoy the show.
Bulworth
@Joel: Thanks. Hope ‘registered’ voters is more like reality than ‘likely’ voters. Although both within margin of error, etc. Hopefully next two debates bump O back up consistently.
KXB
@geg6:
I have not seen many episodes, and like many shows about law enforcement, it seems to believe that the government is more thorough than it usually is. But I have been intrigued by some of the plot-lines involving Israel. It is treated as a partner, but one that you have to watch carefully. I remember one episode where it was suspected that Mossad carried out a targeted killing on US soil, a big no-no. When the Mossad figure based in the U.S. was asked, his response was essentially, “Are you stupid? We’re not going to carry out such an operation on the territory of our most important ally.”
1badbaba3
@Bokonon: You can add your “Obama weak. Obama got killed” meme to the screed list of things that don’t add up. Some folks have been pushing that crap for about five years now. How’s that workin’ out for ya?
Yeah, you run with that, as fast as it’s tiny little legs can scamper. It may not always appear so to the nekkid eye, but Obama drives fast. Try to keep up.
YellowJournalism
@geg6: my husband worships Mark Harmon. He was visibly upset when there were rumours that Harmon wasn’t returning a few seasons ago.
I like the show okay and can get into some of the plot lines, but my favorite thing about it is the film references traded amongst some of the characters.
Bokonon
@1badbaba3: Obama handled his debate with Romney in a formal, academic way that made it SEEM like he was getting killed – because Obama followed the rules, and responded to the moderator’s questions (however crummy they were). Obama also made some awful mistakes in his general posture and demeanor – basic stuff. He dropped his chin and put his head down, avoided Romney’s gaze and finger-pointing, nodded at some of Romney’s claims, and generally LOOKED bad. And for television audiences, and particularly low information voters who couldn’t tell that Romney was prevaricating and making things up, LOOKING and SEEMING control impressions, and form a screen on how they interpret the candidates’ words.
And not answering Romney’s claims about increased taxes, crushing regulations, weakness projected in our international relations, and so on made Obama SEEM like he had no answer, or was just ceding the points.
What Biden did last night in a similar format, facing the same talking points, shows the way you avoid getting bulldozed – and framed as a loser – by a debate partner who is proceeding in bad faith.
1badbaba3
@Bokonon: It’s called ‘perspective’.
Git some.
Felanius Kootea
@Sarah, Proud and Tall: Glad to be in good company :) :).
Joey Maloney
@Cacti: Now that I’m 51, I call it “late middle youth”.
Villago Delenda Est
@MikeJ:
Oregon has had moderate Republicans well into the 80’s. Mark Hatfield opposed the war in Vietnam, and didn’t think much of Reagan’s arms buildup. Bob Packwood, for all his shitty behavior, was consistently pro-choice. Tom McCall was the greatest governor of Oregon in my lifetime, proudly progressive and a leader on environmental issues.
However, the Oregon GOP is a sewer like the national GOP now. Filled with batshit insane teatards and fundy dimbulbs.
Haydnseek
@geg6: Rachel Maddow mentioned that she liked to unwind by watching “Jersey Shore,” for what that’s worth. Just shows to go ya, there are no guilty pleasures. Only pleasures.
Omnes Omnibus
@Haydnseek: Explain Nickelback then.