The sky’s not falling folks. Huge dem advantage in early voting in Ohio. Will be tough for Romney to make up the difference:
PPP’s newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading 51-46, a 5 point lead not too different from our last poll two weeks ago when he led 49-45.
The key finding on this poll may be how the early voters are breaking out. 19% of people say they’ve already cast their ballots and they report having voted for Obama by a 76-24 margin. Romney has a 51-45 advantage with those who haven’t voted yet, but the numbers make it clear that he already has a lot of ground to make up in the final three weeks before the election.
some guy
Ohio!
srv
Darn, just when it was getting exciting.
What else will we talk about for three weeks?
some guy
and Florida!
some guy
@srv:
the BCS ?
MikeJ
What’s round on the ends and high in the middle?
raven
I said hey ho, Ohio. . .
kindness
Well that is certainly good news for John McCain.
What? Wait a minute!
General Stuck
But I thought Romney was a car guy.
Matt McIrvin
Saaaay, this would make it really easy to separate the mostly-Obama ballots from the mostly-Romney ballots, if one wished to lose some of them by accident.
PhoenixRising
Could someone who is both sober and good with the numbers help me to understand that 19% figure?
That is, if it’s 19% of voters they polled that have already voted:
was it a sample of registered voters in which they asked the other 81% whether they were likely voters? Or people who said they were likely voters before early voting started who have been followed up?
Polling is both more and different than the math makes it sound like. Particularly when you’re +3.
redshirt
Don’t worry, Diebold is on the case.
Litlebritdifrnt
This is what I have been saying for weeks. The Obama ground game has been boots on the ground registering voters since 2011 and getting them to the polls since early voting started. Everyone was bitching that Obama was blowing through money like crazy, what they didn’t say was that he was putting his money into the ground game and not on useless 30 second TV ads. OFA has registered new voters 3-1 over the repubs, 250,000 alone over the repubs in NC.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Does Florida have early voting? I think a commercial with people in their fifties talking about voucherizing medicare, and another with people in their forties wondering if they’ll be able to keep mom in that nice home without medicaid would paint Florida blue. I’m also waiting for the ad using Romney’s “let the foreclosure process run its course, then the investors can move in!” I think that would hurt Willard, but what to I know?
redshirt
Also too: REM, right?
PsiFighter37
This is pretty good news to hear. We’ve got to focus on banking shitloads of votes early and then working to turn the tide back the last 3 weeks.
I’m feeling good again – but this shouldn’t get people complacent. Ohio IS the firewall, it has to hold.
raven
Country Joe & The Fish – Please Don’t Drop That H-Bomb On Me
Go drop it on yourself!
DPS
Electoral college tie, anybody?
There’s also a handful of scenarios where Barack wins OH but not the election. This seems like the most plausible one to me. Not many Romney paths without OH, though.
Amir Khalid
Bruce Springsteen will be in Iowa campaigning for Obama with saxophonist Bill Clinton this week. Scooter and the Big Dog!
CW in LA
It’s still true that Willard is in a cage strapped to the roof of karma’s car if he can’t win Ohio, yes?
PsiFighter37
@DPS: I think Obama’s going to win Nevada, no matter what the polls say. OFA + Harry Reid’s machine = megaton turnout among Latinos (who have been undersampled in every major poll).
Didn’t the election at the end of ‘The West Wing’ also turn on what happened in Nevada?
raven
But I’m sooooo scared of what all those mean white boys will do if they lose. Boogie boggie!
raven
Cocks decocked!
DPS
@PsiFighter37:
Fingers crossed.
PeakVT
The sky’s not falling folks.
Definitely not. Still, I find it a tad disturbing that a couple of million Americans can be so easily spun. That’s not something new, of course.
raven
Yankee fans can quit crying.
MikeJ
@PsiFighter37: Yeah, and the Republicans carried California. And Oregon was also up in the air.
Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ
@redshirt:
yup
Sly
@DPS:
The most disturbing thing about an electoral college tie is that the House votes for President and the Senate votes for Vice President. This would produce an outcome that we haven’t seen since the election of 1796, for which the 12th amendment was specifically put in place to prevent from happening again.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@DPS: That tie assumes Willard takes Iowa, where Obama is pretty strong, they had early vote numbers today too, also CO, NV, VA and FL. I wouldn’t bet on Obama carrying them all, but I would bet on him taking at least two.
My nightmare is Obama winning the EC and losing the popular vote. The media will not tell us to accept it and move on. I hope and trust the campaign is running up the score around the country
Yutsano
@DPS: That requires way too many breaks that Willard won’t get, including NH and Nevada. Florida is gonna be close but in the end I can’t imagine Willard taking it. And there’s still three weeks and two debates left to go.
1badbaba3
@redshirt: Where is Ken Blackwell? Someone needs to find him and sit on that slimy fuck.
Xecky Gilchrist
OMG I *cannot* effing WAIT to vote!!!!!
Early voting starts later here in Utah than it did in ’08, not surprisingly. Our dumbass legislature has done all the same vote curtailment crap the other states have done, but it’s blood-red Utah, so there wasn’t much reason and nobody seems to have noticed.
But on the first day I can do it, I’m by God going and VOTING!
Go Obama in Ohio!
some guy
Obama is gonna take Florida by 1 or 2 hundred thousand votes. the ground game here is strong, and the air campaign is even stronger
PeakVT
@Xecky Gilchrist: What’s your take on the outcome in the CD-4 race (Matheson vs. Love)?
Lurker
I have Permanent Vote-By-Mail status here in California. I got my ballot in the mail yesterday; I plan to vote and mail in my ballot this weekend.
gwangung
@some guy: Yeah, ground game still counts. It’s one on one interaction, and that still counts these days, even with the Internet.
Maude
@some guy:
Is the Romney campaign active there?
Amir Khalid
@Sly:
In this case, President Romney and Vice-President Biden? That would make for an interesting four years.
DPS
@Yutsano:
I think until we see a post-debate floor it’s hard to say what constitutes a state where Willard needs to catch a break in order to win. That’s why it’s so good to see this about OH.
some guy
@Maude:
yes, but I rarely see a Rmoney ad, whereas O ads are everywhere.
the Teabaggers are motivated, but so are normal people.
redshirt
@Metrosexual Manichean Monster DougJ: I like that song is actually named “Fall on Me” but the chorus is “Don’t fall on me”. Ironic!
1badbaba3
@raven: Looks like they blew it, eh?
Keith
I’m actually surprised that we haven’t heard any kind of complaining that early voting isn’t in the Constitution.
JustAnotherBob
@PhoenixRising:
Do it this way. Assume there are 100 potential voters.
19 have already voted. PBO got 76% of those votes or 14.4. Romney got 24% or 4.6.
81 have yet to vote. Right now it looks like PBO will get 45% of the vote or 36.5. Romney might get 51% or 41.3.
PBO 14.4 + 36.5 = 50.8
Romney 4.6 + 41.3 = 45.9
Of course the best math it to make sure PBO gets more than 45% of the remaining votes. Time to put our thumbs on the scale.
Michael
@PsiFighter37: I think Obama’s going to win Nevada, no matter what the polls say.
Pretty sure Obama has lead in every poll in Nevada in 2012 save 1
PeakVT
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: There’s a very small part of me that wants an EC win and a PV loss for Obama, just to fuck with the brains of conservatards. I try not to listen to that voice much.
TexasMango
Also too, the MSM and the GOP are totally underestimating the black vote this year. They think we won’t show up because the excitement of electing the first black president isn’t there. What they don’t understand is that the racism that’s been thrown at Obama has us pissed off and that being pissed off is highly motivational. If Obama loses the racists win. I don’t want to see happy bigots the day after the election. Honestly, there is racial solidarity and pride working in a way for me that wasn’t the last time and I’m not ashamed to admit it. Barack and Michelle can’t move back home to Chicago until January 20, 2017.
The Black will be staying the White House. Fuck the haters we are going to win this damn thing.
Matt McIrvin
@Amir Khalid: Though President Obama and Vice-President Ryan would be more terrifying from a pure violent-coup-d’etat-potential perspective.
Lavocat
The question is a simple one: if this turns out to be the close election it has been hyped by the self-interested media to be, then how will the Republicans try to go about stealing it?
They’ve already largely been stymied by the courts shutting down their fraudulent Voter ID schemes. So, what next?
I simply do not see the Republicans going quietly into the night on this, especially when it seems to be the last hurrah of The Angry Old White Voter.
The game’s afoot!
redshirt
@TexasMango: Amen. Barack Obama IS the American dream, personified. He’s literally the fulfillment of that myth. And he’s terrifically awesome. I have 100% faith in BO, and have no doubt he will win in November. I sincerely love him. OBOT out.
Matt McIrvin
@Yutsano: NH is currently colored Republican on electoral-vote.com, but it’s on the strength of two really close polls from Rasmussen and ARG. Polls have been all over the place there all season, though they’re more often blue than red.
Xecky Gilchrist
@PeakVT: I have no idea where Matheson-Love is going to go. I’ve been redistricted out of Matheson’s area now; I’ve held my nose and voted for him several times now and I hope he wins this time just for the chance at a Dem majority.
redshirt
@Lavocat: They’ll pay off the City Watch and perform a coup, executing noble Ned in the process.
Maude
@PeakVT:
The people that whine about Obama would not learn. They are a part of the chip on the shoulder crowd.
CW in LA
@PeakVT: Plus maybe that would provide the impetus for finally dumping the electoral college. Except the fuckers will try to make it retroactive to this election but of course not ’00.
Haydnseek
@Lurker: Yep, same here. How long did it take you to figure out all the propositions this time? I have my ballot, but haven’t done all my homework yet.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@TexasMango:
I’m an old fat white guy and I feel exactly the same as you do.
ETA: In 2008 I was so proud of my country that we’d gotten to the point that we could elect a black president. After watching a horde of angry old white people flood the polling place in 2010, I got cured of that.
The Dangerman
I’ve got my spine, I’ve got my Obama crush
Roger Moore
@PhoenixRising:
It looks to me as if the 19% is that 19% of the “likely voters” are actually “already voted”, not that 19% of all the people they polled have already voted. I plugged those numbers into a spreadsheet, together with the preferences they reported for the two groups, and it added up to the total numbers they gave.
redshirt
@The Dangerman: Thumbs upding!
“Pop Song 89” is a wonderfully unappreciated pop masterpiece, by the by.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@TexasMango:
The Village’s refusal to believe their lying eyes in Willard’s whole dumbed down talk radio campaign has been a disgrace. I used to like Tom Brokaw, he was pretty weak through Bush years, and the way John McCain fed his Daddy-Warrior issues was just sad to watch, but seeing him dismiss the race-baiting in the welfare ad makes him, in my eyes, a contemptible toad. Junior Villager Jonathan Capeheart made an attempt to set him straight, Brokaw’s response was, basically, ‘tut tut, young fellow’. and Capeheart folded. I sensed from the way Tweety talked about it that he had gotten some pushback from the suits, and I’m sure Brokaw was part of that. Brokaw was a local anchor in Atlanta in the late sixties, he ought to fucking hear a dog whistle when it’s blown, especially when the dog whistle is a fucking air horn.
handy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Obama will win every state you listed. The only one Romney flips is NC. Maybe.
handy
@redshirt:
My favorite from that same album
Roger Moore
@Haydnseek:
It took me an hour or two of reading the ballot pamphlet (if you want to call anything that thick a pamphlet) to make up my mind. Most of them are pretty easy, IMO.
PeakVT
@CW in LA: It would be great fun … if someone could guarantee the outcome for Obama.
/checks SCOTUS lineup
It’s a bad idea back here in reality. Do not want.
The Dangerman
@redshirt:
Wendell Gee (awesome alternate version here) and Nightswimming for are my favorites, but really, it’s like favorite ice cream, they almost all fine.
Kool Earl
@PsiFighter37:
I agree that Nevada should end up Blue. If Ohio is locked down, I am counting 261 EV. Add to that either Wisconsin, Virginia or Colorado and its clinched. Of course, things will be a whole lot easier if Florida is taken.
Mike E
@handy: For the president to take NC again would be quite the feat…winning here once was done only by Dems LBJ, Carter, and some guy from Hawaii.
Patricia Kayden
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: And what could the media do if that happened? Anyhow President Obama wins is alright with me.
The media should be glad that it’s got its horse race.
Matt McIrvin
@Lavocat: By the way, I’m not at all convinced this is the last hurrah of the Angry Old White Voter. It’s more like 2008 was the first time in 40 years that the Angry Old White Voter actually got overridden.
They’ll be a force in midterm, off-year and special elections for a very long time, and they could even swing another presidential cycle or two. Their eclipse is more like a 15- or 20-year prospect.
redshirt
@The Dangerman: Well, if we’re going old school, give me “(Carnival of Sorts) Boxcars”. That’s poppy golden goodness. Alternatively so.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kool Earl: OBama looks strong in WI, and are we trying not to jinx ourselves by not mentioning the other historic election there? I’m kinda surprised how little discussion that’s getting in the blogosphere.
Will Baldwin be the first openly gay person elected to a statewide office? I can’t think of another.
handy
@Mike E:
Last poll I saw PBO was up 1%, things might have shifted since then. You’re right, though. I really should have written “Probably.”
Spaghetti Lee
The guy who said ‘let the auto industry go bankrupt’ isn’t doing well in Ohio? Shocking!
I’m looking forward to Election Day the way one might look forward to a really crazy roller coaster.
Bokonon
All of a sudden, us folks in Colorado are getting hammered with GOP ads – both from the Romney campaign, state level politicians, and groups like Crossroads GPS.
It is a blitz. Everywhere you go. Every channel. Every radio station. You can’t get away from them.
Something is up.
redshirt
@Spaghetti Lee: I don’t dig your reference. I enjoy roller coasters, and would be looking forward to a really crazy one.
I’m thinking more like “TIGER DOOR”! You have three doors in front of you, one of which has a TIGER behind it. Good luck (66%)!
handy
@Bokonon:
Yeah something is up–UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH BITCHEZ!
Spaghetti Lee
@Matt McIrvin:
The best way to do it is to help Happy Young White Voters not become Angry Old White Voters. I believe the projected year for the U.S. becoming a maj-min country is 2046 or so, and even then I’m sure it will be by a thin margin. That’s a long wait.
Speaking as a HYWV, we have lefty positions on gay marriage, abortion, drug use, etc. by huge margins. But there’s more racism among the young than lots of people would think, in my opinion, and a good chunk of my cohort needs the Ayn Rand nonsense knocked out of their heads.
redshirt
@handy: Indeed. Why not carpet bomb the final three weeks? It’s chump change to those with the bucks, and heck! You just might be able to swing the power of the Empire. A wise bet, even if you lose – Overton Windows Biatchez!
BGinCHI
Bottom of 11 in NY. Great game. Haven’t been following baseball much this season due to Cubs suckitude, but rooting now for Tigers and Giants.
Kool Earl
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I am very confident about WI. Once you start playing with the interactive EV maps, combos look pretty damn good with Ohio blue. I do want to see some battleground state polls from reasonably reputable polls up until the debate on Tuesday now that the first debate dust has settled and that factor in the VP debate. PPP will have Florida and NC tomorrow.
Spaghetti Lee
@Bokonon:
Condolences. If I start seeing that hear in MO, I’ll actually be happy because it means the GOP has to defend it. I don’t watch much TV and such, but the only GOPer I’ve even seen advertising is Dave Spence for governor. Nothing from Romney or Hartzler, and I assume Akin is just hiding behind the curtain until election day and hope the fundies GOTV for him. I’m seeing Obama, Nixon, and McCaskill ads very often. Same with bumper stickers for that matter.
BC
@JustAnotherBob: You and your fancy mathematical signs like “+” and “=” when we all know it’s how you feel in your gut what will happen that matters.
Michael
@BC: More nerve endings in your gut than in your brain!
handy
@BGinCHI:
Tigers better not choke this one. I don’t think I could stomach a second night in a row of seeing a hated team rally big late.
TexasMango
@Bokonon: The Romney “bounce” has coincided with an GOPer ad blitz.
OFA raised a shit load of money in September so I expect you will be seeing a blitz from out team as well.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@BGinCHI: We had five of those pitcher’s duels with the O’s and the FTFYs. I don’t know why my nails aren’t bitten to the quick.
1badbaba3
@TexasMango: Ha! Won’t show up, my arse. Once again, as always, they underestimate us at their own peril. Pissed doesn’t even begin to approximate what I feel for them. I can offload a little here, because this place is cool, people understand. But I don’t dare do too much. Wouldn’t be prudent. Have to try to follow his lead, and just be cool, despite the idiocy abounding. Find the facts and take comfort in them where they go our way. And try to refudiate the ones that don’t with those that do.
Oy. Okay that was a little confusing. But these are such heady times, are they not?
BGinCHI
@handy: Tigers bullpen is fucking terrible. They should just let Cabrera come out to the mound and hit the ball at the batters.
Detroit needs all starters to throw complete games or they’re in big trouble. Alternatively: score 10 runs early.
Haydnseek
@Roger Moore: Thanks. Just took a quick look at the booklet. Not quite as many props as some past elections. I’ll wrap it up during the week. I feel for people in important swing states, where it can be “hmmm…nice ballot. It would be a shame if something were to happen to it.” I still can’t understand why the blatant theft of the 2000 election wasn’t a bigger, longer lasting story. But I digress…
Capt. Seaweed
So I can take the shotgun out of my mouth now?
Tractarian
The polls are showing that Mitt has hit his high-water mark. Even then, he hasn’t had a lead in any poll of WI or NV, so I think those states are pretty safely blue. And polls in the last week show Obama having a pretty robust lead in OH.
Think about that. Romney has been the beneficiary of a 10-day long media frenzy. He has received the greatest gift a presidential candidate could ask for – an October surprise, a true black swan event – in the form of an historically poor debate performance by his opponent.
And yet, even assuming he wins the other swing states (CO, VA, FL, NH, IA), the best he can do is 267 electoral votes.
Assuming Obama holds his own in the last two debates – I don’t mean dominating, I just mean avoiding another Denver – this election is his to lose.
Roger Moore
@Spaghetti Lee:
I think a huge part of getting today’s younger people not to turn into a bunch of angry racists is already happening: they’re marrying outside their ethnic group. Something like 1/7 or 1/6 of marriages today are “outside” marriages, and those mixed marriages are producing multi-ethnic children. That doesn’t only hurt racism by undermining the white majority, it also means that a lot of whites will be hurting their own relatives if they vote for racist policies.
BGinCHI
Prince Fielder looks like a fat guy wearing a fat suit.
Violet
@TexasMango:
Thanks for posting this. I’m pissed off at the racism that’s been thrown his way and I’m extra motivated because of it, among other things, and I’m not black. I can only imagine how motivating it must be for folks who are.
The black man is staying in the White House for four more years. Racists can go fuck themselves.
BGinCHI
Nick Swisher should not have had that second beer in the bottom half.
BGinCHI
@Violet: I like when Violet finally brings out the F bomb.
Go girl.
Roger Moore
@Haydnseek:
And they mostly seem pretty clear choices to me. Should we raise taxes rather than let our schools suck? Yes. Should we end the death penalty and pointless three strikes cases? Yes. Should we prevent unions from political spending while letting corporations keep it up? No. Should we vote down the new State Senate districts? No. Props 35 and 37 are the only ones I had to spend much time on.
Roger Moore
@BGinCHI:
And I might approve letting the Yankees get him just so he’d have to shave that awful beard.
BGinCHI
The auto-correct on my phone (Android) turns Jeter into Heterosexual.
I think that’s pretty accurate, actually. You can hate the Yanks, but Jeter is a good dude. From inter-racial parents in K’zoo. Solid.
The Dangerman
@BGinCHI:
The back end of his contract will look as bad as, well, his back end. I mean Alex Rodriguez bad (I think Arod still has 5 years and 100M on the books; he be pulling splinters out of his ass on the bench well before it’s over).
BGinCHI
@Roger Moore: Oh, I love the beard, and I love Prince. I’m just saying, he ain’t a thin man.
DPS
@Tractarian:
According to 538, there was a poll on 10/9 putting Romney up by 3 in Nevada. I do not know anything about the outfit, but given the recent overall movement I do not see any reason to call NV “pretty safely blue.” Nate Silver calls it “lean Obama” now, and that makes sense given the recent numbers.
redshirt
Prince will lose 50 pounds and make a couple of million dollars promoting some diet plan. Book it.
BGinCHI
@The Dangerman: Not possible. Cashman is infallible.
/Yankee logic
Seriously, A-rod is such a douche. That guy never, ever had any class. Compare him to Jeter. No fucking comparison.
Davis X. Machina
@BGinCHI: There was this baseball rule, back in the day.
Roy White was black.
Bud Black was white.
And Cecil Fielder — Prince’s dad — was a DH.
And then Butch Huskey came along — oh, he was dead butch, but at 6′ 3″, 244 lb. he screwed everything up.
Pavonis
@Roger Moore: This was Alexander the Great’s strategy for ending racism. Alexander, after having declared himself king of kings and a living god, used his power to make interracial marriage mandatory. Unfortunately, after his untimely death, almost all of Alexander’s officers divorced their foreign wives with the notable exception of Seleukos, founder of the Seleucid Empire.
mai naem
I don’t know if this has been mentioned earlier but Obama is ahead by 2 points in an Arizona poll. I cannot fvkcing believe this. I can’t find the crosstabs but its a Rocky Mountain Poll/BRC poll. These are the people who’ve done polls in AZ forever so I’m figuring this poll is a good poll. They say its because Obama’s winning 90/10 with Latinos. I also think it has to be with Maricopa County Sheriff Joe Arpaio(R-racist redneck)who appears to be a little worried about losing his race this time around. And then there’s Carmona who’s Puerto Rican but,hey, that’s close enough to attract the Mexican American vote here. Also, I got a visit today from the Obama people for early voting(kinda bothered me a little about that cuz I told the girl who called a couple of weeks ago not to waste time on me because I will absolutely vote, spend your time on other people.)
BGinCHI
@redshirt: P90X! Maybe he and Ryan can start a company when Ryan gets voted out of office. Not sure Ryan has the stuff to make it in the free market, though. You know: competition.
The Dangerman
@BGinCHI:
Well, both have left a trail of supermodels in their wake; apparently, chicks DO dig the long ball.
BGinCHI
@Davis X. Machina: Brilliant. Only in baseball.
BGinCHI
@Pavonis: You know who else also made their Generals marry inter-racially?
Wait. No. Forget it.
Roger Moore
@BGinCHI:
I had a coworker whose phone would do that if she accidentally typed “hete” instead of “here”. It produced some classic text messages, especially the one where she said that if she wasn’t heterosexual, Roger would be.
GregB
If Harry Reid was able to hold on to his seat in tea-pocalyse in 2010 with the help of a large Democratic turnout bolstered by Hispanics, I can’t imagine Obama losing two years later.
I think Obama wins in NH too.
BGinCHI
@The Dangerman: A lot of us have done that, including Cole. Don’t be a hater.
Violet
@BGinCHI: Appropriate when I feel as strongly as I do about the racism the Obamas have had to endure.
I only wish Biden could have brought the F-bomb out to play on Thursday. Lord knows it was justified against that limp dishrag Ryan.
Quincy
@Sly: @Jim, Foolish Literalist: You’re right. Baldwin deserves her own thread some time. Her and Warren were the two senate races I wanted to win most and it looks like we’ll get both.
JustAnotherBob
When I look at the TPM poll page for NV I see no polls in which Romney led. I see two that are tied.
One is a Rasmussen, so that one is meaningless this far from the election. (Or it means that Obama is really in the lead.)
The other is “Glen Bolger” whom I’ve never heard about.
Leans might be accurate, but steady leads. And when you throw in Gary Johnson as a choice the bottom drops out from under Romney (52.5%, 42%, 2.3%).
http://polltracker.talkingpointsmemo.com/contests/nv-president-12
Davis X. Machina
@BGinCHI: Life’s not a bad metaphor for baseball…
Bill James used to keep separate stats on Jim Gott v. Tim Teufel. He was sure the fate of the universe hung on the match-up.
BGinCHI
@Violet: I was hoping for “the c*nt from Janesville,” but no dice.
Unleash the Violet!
handy
Butch Huskey? Wow.
piratedan
@mai naem: aye, two threads back..
http://www.scribd.com/doc/109920743/RMP-2012-III-01
is the actual poll link… it’s different because they spoke to hispanic voters in Spanish, something that not all pollsters do… combo of land lines and cell phones but it looks strange because of the Maricopa County numbers, Phoenix Metro doesn’t trend blue to my knowledge but other folks have mentioned that the state GOTV has focused on Latinos post SB 1070…. so maybe the sleepers have awakened.
BGinCHI
Tigers Win!!
That’s grit. Obama gets a bounce from this for sure….
JustAnotherBob
And take a look at the HP list.
http://elections.huffingtonpost.com/pollster/2012-nevada-president-romney-vs-obama?gec
Rasmussen and “POS” polls have them tied. Most of the other polls show a significant butt kicking on tap.
BGinCHI
@Davis X. Machina: Fucking Bill James. Genius.
I always suspected Teufel of foul play.
Liberty60
This was heartening-
Most of Nate Silver’s polls were conducted before the debate; I think the new polls will be showing a bit of bounce from Biden.
freelancer
@piratedan:
Rise and shine, zonies, but don’t forget your booties because it’s COLD OUTSIDE!
Is there any way that Obama flips AZ, but loses NV and or CO?
I don’t think so.
If Obama flips AZ, he’s going to take NV and CO. If that happens, he can still lose IA, OH, VA, NC, AND FL, and still squeak out a win.
Who wants to bet against him?
Violet
@BGinCHI: Ah, the c-word. Not in my vocabulary. A girl has to have her standards. Besides, I wouldn’t want to waste it on Ryan. He’s more of a brown-nosing teacher’s pet than anything more interesting.
gwangung
@DPS:
There’s been some pretty hinky polls that Nate’s been including that he threw out in 2008. If that’s the one I’m think it is, that poll had Romney winning among African Americans.
Sorry, but I don’t think that’s a result that falls anywhere near the margin of error.
GregB
@Liberty60:
Just saw one of the trend lines on that aggregated poll listed above. It shows President Obama’s drop has leveled off.
handy
@gwangung:
UNSKEWED POLLS!
handy
@freelancer:
With all the aftermath of the first debate, people seem to forget how piss poor a campaigner Romney has been. He won’t have a night like that the rest of this race. If Obama wants it, he wins this thing with basically the same margin as ’08.
piratedan
@freelancer: I don’t…. and I’m hopeful. Was talking to Yutsy about this, I think there is a perfect storm of related items in AZ that make it a possibility….
SB1070 was the first domino… this has led to a slow but steady GOTV amongst latinos in the state …which has shown the R’s to consider them second class citizens, all they’ve been doing is following the deeds and words…
SB1070… then that was followed by the Ethnic studies debacle in the state where schools were forbidden from teaching about hispanic history by the R State Superintendent… then more Arpaio travesty as its been uncovered that he’s ignored 400+ sexual assault cases (mostly filed on behalf of hispanic teens) to pursue real estate fraud claims (i.e. people of color living where they shouldn’t) in Fountain Hills.
Then you have the President in favor of the Dream Act and Romney in favor of self deportation… the R’s and the “fence”. Couple this with Carmona being hispanic (he’s Puerto Rican) and the GOTV. There also may be something of a Mormon backlash here with the crap that happened with Russell Pearce and Mitt not exactly casting their religion in the most favorable light. Also Flake is one of those typical Repub storm troopers, votes hard line R on everything, doesn’t do much but go on junkets and take his graft.
pkdz
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Baldwin will be the first openly gay senator. I’m from Madison and support her. I wasn’t sure how she would do in other counties, but she is doing well. She was smart to focus on Thompson’s years after he was governor (lobbyist).
CW in LA
@Tractarian:
And not the awesome Kunis munching on Portman kind of black swan event, either.
Without having actually seen the debate, I still maintain that it wouldn’t have had that great an effect without the talking heads who are supposedly on our side massively hyping its awfulness.
The Rethug candidate could spend an entire debate losing control of every single one of his bodily functions on stage and the right-wing bloviators would still hail it as a display of bold, decisive leadership. Our guy is less sharp than expected and the designated Democratic talkers respond with “WE’RE ALL GONNA DIIIIIIIIIIIEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEE”
Baud
AP:
Justification for headline:
Your liberal media.
Yutsano
@pkdz: Thompson did himself no favours by embracing his inner wingnut. He has been talking up the teatard base so much he’s given up any hope of moderation before the election. Not all of Wisconsin is enamoured with Scotty Brown, and he’s going to learn that the hard way.
@piratedan: There are going to be three potential shocks to the Republicans in the Senate races: Carmona, Heitkamp in ND, and Donnelly in Indiana. Plus McCaskill has maintained her lead and Rove hasn’t ridden to Akin’s rescue. This was supposed to be their perfect cycle and they’re blowing it.
Kingfish
Doug j that other song was angel flying to close to the ground by Willie . If you had not have fallen, I would not have have found you. … Really good song.
AHH onna Droid
@The Dangerman: Yes!
gwangung
@piratedan: You were mentioning this before, but I never realized simply how much shit has been piled on AZ Hispanics. Maybe the Rs could have gotten away with SOME of it, but not all of it. At some point, enough was enough….(And I’m hoping it DOES happen)…
Soo Doe Nimh
If Obama manages an Electoral-College win while losing the popular vote, I think the end of the Electoral College will follow soon after, for, unlike Bush in 2000, this would be a Democrat winning, and a black Democrat at that. I can even see places like Iowa giving up having their asses kissed every 4 years for the sake of dumping the Electoral College, secure in the knowledge that the Senate will keep their disproportionate influence in Congress intact.
nogo postl
Ohio?
Ya mean the place where the
We Take Care of Our Own GOTV Tour 2012 starts
This Thursday
Obama
Big Dog
Bruce
Odie Hugh Manatee
@1badbaba3: “But these are such heady times, are they not?”
Heady times? Are you Tom Brokaw? ;)
Please, be pissed off all you want. I’m pasty white and I’m pissed off to no end. I want to see Republicans punished for their race-baiting bullshit, I want to see their party ground into pulp and flushed down the toilet. I will never vote for a Republican for the rest of my life, never. I know that my wife and daughter feel the same way, they hate what the Republican party has come to represent and know that while the Democrats are far from perfect, at least that party doesn’t think of them as little more than birthing vessels.
When I see the (R) after a politicians name, the first thing I think of is “Racist”.
satby
@Odie Hugh Manatee: old white chick here and I feel the same. Never again a vote for the Rs for any office for any reason. The crazies buried that party and salted the earth above the coffin as far as I’m concerned.
Linda
I’m in Ohio and Romney signs have been sprouting like weeds for the last couple of weeks. I warn you, do notbecome complacent.
I don’t understand conservatives. Many of the Romney-sign houses are small,run-down, or both. By sign placement, Obama actually does better in the wealthy areas. What could Romney have to offer a voter who’s not rich? And I cannot ask the conservatives themselves. I have tried. Their replies are little more than random collections of words: sock a Liz m, Islam, terrorism, free market, blah blah blah. Even poor old Trayvon Martin occasionally works his way into the mix. I agree with those who think conservatism is a cult.
Matt McIrvin
@Spaghetti Lee: I don’t think the US has to become majority-minority (which could be prevented just by redefining whiteness, as has happened many times before) so much as that the people who grew up in the pre-civil-rights-movement world have to die out in sufficient numbers.
And there are other problems, yes. I’m not so much worried about Kids Today as about my generation, the Reagan Youth/GenXers, people who are now in their forties. Paul Ryan is one of us. We’re not as racist as our parents’ cohort (the pre-Boom Silent Generation), but we’re going to be pains in the asses as geezers anyway. It’s hard for me to imagine that there could be more of the Ayn Rand shit among twenty-year-olds as there is among 45-year-old geeks, because damn.
Lojasmo
@TexasMango:
A million times this.
I am a white dude, but I LOVE the cut of your jib.
gravie
Keep the good news coming! Now I’m off to canvass in Virginia.
Matt McIrvin
Oh, yeah, but another thing that’s going to happen when my generation gets old is that we’ll be way, way poorer than today’s geezers, because today’s geezers are still old enough that they have pensions. Nobody my age has ever heard of a pension; we have 401Ks that we’ll discover are worthless or inadequate. We think we’ll live entirely on these 401Ks because of decades of financial planners telling us Social Security is going away. Expect a big, big about-face on the social safety net when we hit 65 or 70.
Kool Earl
@Matt McIrvin:
Matt- I think many/most of us dont have to wait until we are 65 or 70 to realize that 401K aint diddly.
gvg
@Roger Moore: On mixed marriages, this was specifically why I knew Obama could win Florida last time. Grocery store people watching in the prior 10 years showed a lot of white grandparents with black children which said to me, not only were there ALOT more mixed marriages and their families were supportive. It’s not the couples alone, it’s their extended families, friends and coworkers. We aren’t divided anymore, at least to the pasts degree. It’s too late for racism.
On the other side of the mindset, overheard conversations made me think that the peculiar blinders of real racists had blinded them to what everyone else actually thought. they thought it was all manners and that everyone white really agreed with them. They seem to have thought they weren’t supposed to use the N word politely because it was bad manners, not because it showed everyone you were a really bad person. Pre 2008 actual voting I heard some of these jerks that really did not know they were going to lose. It’s true Obama didn’t get the majority of the white vote, but he got quite a lot of it anyway. He would not have won without that white support and he’ll get it again because he’s a good capable guy who has done most of what we want. The racists don’t get it.
I’ve wondered when the republicans would realize that the racism thing was no longer good for elections but the thing is right now they still get about 45% of the vote and the majority in some districts…if they started getting rid of the more blatant examples, I think their % would go down oh maybe to 35% and that wouldn’t win much plus it would rightly take blacks awhile to think they mean it and start sometimes voting Republican. That means their isn’t a real incentive to do it even though they need to (from their interests point of view, not mine). I think they could get back some of the non black voters if they weren’t so offensively racists so maybe their is an upside but I can’t be sure and maybe they can’t either.
The other part of the trap is that racism isn’t the only toxic side of them. I also despise them for the anti gay anti women’s rights and I don’t care for their religion fanatisim either. They need to back down from several deadends and the same time and each change will lose them some % without immediately getting that support.
blingee
@PsiFighter37: I am seeing a lot of denial around here. News flash, Latinos will NOT show up just like they never showed up in 2010 and in 2008. The early voting advantage is baked into Nates and the other aggregated polling. It’s all about that polling so it’s still tenuous although apparently no longer in a nerve wracking free fall.
Every 2 years I hear the same BS about “yea but the polls are wrong because….Latinos….ground game…blah blah yada yada” and every 2 years that speculation is WRONG!
rdldot
@Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason: I’m an old fat woman and I’m right there with you. I went out last weekend to hand out voter registration cards at the mall, and all of the black folks were already registered. Amen to that!
rdldot
@BGinCHI: You need to root for the Cards…
TexasMango
@blingee: Tell that to Harry Reid. He kept his Senate seat because of Latino turnout.
Michael
@blingee: In New Mexico the latino turnout bumped up from 35% in 2004 to 42% in 2008.
Xecky Gilchrist
@blingee: The early voting advantage is baked into Nates and the other aggregated polling.
You keep saying this, and seem to expect it to mean that that means the aggregated polling still doesn’t account for it.
Piefilter.
grandpa john
@DPS: only poll I find on 10/9 is a Ras pol that has it even and Ras leans rep by 3-4 points according to Nate
AxelFoley
@TexasMango:
What my fellow Negro said.
Mnemosyne
@blingee:
That’s what Pete Wilson thought when he pushed Prop 187 in California to ensure Republicans would continue to dominate the state. Whoops.
rikyrah
@TexasMango:
ICAM
Black folks haven’t said much, but we’ve seen EVERYTHING with regards to the disrespect towards the President AND HIS ENTIRE FAMILY.