(Tom Toles via GoComics.com)
__
Smart words from Alex Pareene at Salon on the MSM comic-book fantasy of an “October Surprise“:
… In all of history there have been, counting generously, two successful “October Surprises,” and I’m sure political scientists and historians would be happy to argue with one another over how “successful” they were at actually having a decisive impact on election results. And these surprises were actually secret attempts to circumvent or sabotage potential surprises from the other side. And details of these surprises weren’t actually known until after the election. I’m referring to the Nixon campaign (led by Henry Kissinger) convincing the South Vietnamese to withdraw from peace talks until after the 1968 election, in order to prevent Johnson from announcing an end to the war, and whatever exactly happened to make it so that Carter couldn’t negotiate for the release of the American hostages in Iran until after he lost the election. (The hostages were then released as Reagan was being inaugurated. Then later we sold Iran a bunch of weapons.) This is what everyone dreams of when they imagine October Surprises — secret clandestine overseas meetings involving CIA spooks! — but these were such extraordinary circumstances that it’s hard to imagine how they could possibly happen again. (Plus: They’re both technically thwarted October Surprises.)
The equivalent today would be Romney sabotaging (or Iran intentionally delaying action on) Obama’s negotiations with Iran regarding their nuclear ambitions, but that would not actually decide the election, sorry. (Also Romney is not competent enough to pull that off and it’s not really in Iran’s interest to side with Romney over Obama.) Or maybe North Korea nukes Japan or something, but once we get into events entirely outside the control of either campaign, we’re again just talking about “news,” and not “surprise,” which implies that people representing one of the campaigns are in some sense responsible for it…
What wins elections is not media stunting by attention whores, it’s hard work. Us Democrats have a more demanding battle than the opposition, because we don’t expand our paramaters for ‘hard work’ to include ‘borderline, if not actual, treason’. Fortunately, unlike Willard Mitt Romney, we’re used to working hard!
So… apart from working hard to GOTV, and keeping a sharp eye on the fReichtards/Talibangelicals/Robber Barons GOP triumvirate, what’s on the agenda for the start of the weekend?
Jamey
I’ve always thought that any recipe with candy corn added should be called “October Surprise.”
R-Jud
I had a bunch of things I meant to do, but got sucked into the annual reader ghost stories thread over at Jezebel, and will now go upstairs and try to sleep (it’s midnight here).
I don’t think that will happen, though.
dmsilev
Chicago Tribune endorses Obama, and pigs spotted in the landing pattern at O’Hare:
The wailing and threats of canceled subscriptions have already begun in the comment section.
heddache
There’s always that pesky hurricane about to bear down on the east coast…could make a real mess of things if people lose power for a week or more.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
Regarding that cartoon and the red arrow on the left labelled “October Surprise”, I didn’t realise that Trump’s hairpiece was a Surprise. I thought everybody knew about it and was just being too polite to say anything in public.
Spaghetti Lee
What about this hurricane? I’m sure the wingnuts are desperate to turn anyone’s lawn furniture getting knocked over into an ‘incompetent Obama’ meme, and I’m sure O knows that the response has to be top notch. If it slams into, say, Hampton Roads, could that tip Virginia to Romney?
danimal
I’ve always thought the unveiling of Bush’s drunk driving arrest was an October surprise.
scav
@dmsilev: Well, they did that gnashing of teeth and rending of garments last time too. The ululations of the ChiTrib’s comment section are piercing yet pleasant to the ears.
dmsilev
@scav: The really fun part will be in a day or so reading the wailing and gnashing of teeth from the Trib’s conservative op/ed writers as they try to rationalize the endorsement.
NotMax
@danimal
October, yes.
Surprise, no.
As for the Big Storm, seems to be heading for Pat Robertson.
scav
@dmsilev: Will be fun for a solid bit. Chortle.
R-Jud
@dmsilev:
I saw one dude vowing to cancel his “prescription”.
Gordon, the Big Express Engine
Why are hurricanes so often named after women?
They come in all wet and wild and leave with your house and car!
Downpuppy
I suddenly found (and collected links to) a ton of articles on the misfinancing of the University of California system, from Reagan forward through decades of overbuilding, underfunding, and generally dubious administration.
Took my mind off too much pollwatching.
Mino
Might want to head over to GOS and wish Hillary a Happy on her 65th.
C. Isaac
I put this near the end of the other open thread, but I’ll toss it in here.
John Scalzi just wrote an eviscerating satire piece for all the rape-happy Republicans out there. But it really, really hits the heart of the matter. Warning, it’s graphic, and it’s hard to read and is written from the perspective of the perpitrator:
Click if you dare.
scav
@R-Jud: Well, he’s clearly not taking it,
xyzxyzxyz
Megan McCardle goes back to the kitchen. I’ll spare you the suspense…a reader asked what her favorite kitchen machine is other than the Thermomix. I’m so glad she has a job.
Anibundel
I’m refusing to shop until Wednesday. Stupid Snoreastercane.
M31
So it seems that from the record of ‘successful’ October surprises, is what you need is Republicans willing to commit treason.
Which is not a surprise at all, actually.
Humanities Grad
Made an unexpected and unplanned trip to the local Obama campaign office today because some asshole swiped my yard sign (and several of the other Obama/Biden signs in the neighborhood–curiously, the Romney/Ryan signs were all left untouched…hmmmm….) last night.
Thankfully I know the local OFA organizer, and she said she’d save me one. I got the last sign in the office. Apparently the local reactionaries started in the little town north of me, backed off when all the ones they stole got put back up, and now they’re targeting my town.
*sigh* I saw too much of this in ’08. Had at least 2 Obama signs stolen from my yard, and another one burned.
Going to have to find time to squeeze in an extra canvassing shift this week, I guess. I will be hanged if I let these bastards get the last word here in my small Ohio town.
LanceThruster
I sure hope I November to deal with my Romnesia then as it would be a pretty debilitating condition if chronic.
The Bearded Blogger
I actually hope the Obama camp has an october surprise. Either:
a) Tape of Ryan and/or Romney explicitly stating the intent to sabotage the economy
and/or
b) Mitts tax returns showing foul play.
Either one would mean a landslide.
geg6
@C. Isaac:
I read that last night. Some really brilliant, disturbing, and fucking true stuff there. As a survivor myself (a rape and a resulting pregnancy), it was painful and made me cry. But it’s also good to see a man who truly, truly gets it.
Rough stuff, though. But rough stuff that needs to be said.
Mnemosyne
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
The surprise is what he’s hiding under the toupee.
I’m going with Jimmy Hoffa.
cathyx
I guess Donald Trump’s big October Surprise was a bust.
Evolving Deep Southerner
Anne Laurie, I haven’t read through the thread, so if this is a repeat, my apologies, but you’re missing an “r” in “Suprises” in the headline above.
maya
Reggie Jackson is set to reveal something really juicy about Obama involving underage groupies, some coke and an after hour sports bar at tomorrow’s Romney rally. It’s being billed as the Mr. October Surprise
YellowJournalism
@Mnemosyne: I’m going to say Baboon ass for a head.
ranchandsyrup
I’ll take a quiet life.
A handshake of carbon monoxide.
With no alarms and no surprises.
Please.
C. Isaac
@geg6: I always have trouble knowing how to respond when I hear that about another. Is it ok to offer condolences/good wishes? I can never tell. As a man, I know I’m never really going to experience the same thing, but at the same time I feel like I should respond in some way. So I’ll just offer honesty and say it confuses me and I want to be empathetic.
OTOH, John Scalzi, from everything I’ve ready by him (and I’ve read a number of his fiction novels), is a downright brilliant writer and really, really ‘gets it’ when it comes to other people.
Mnemosyne
@Humanities Grad:
I always wonder what the best way is to make it unpleasant for someone to steal your yard sign short of actually injuring them. Dog poop smeared in an unobvious place so they get it on their hands when they grab it? Using some extra stakes to pound it into the ground so it takes them a while to figure out how to pull it out? A dye pack like they use in department stores that pops when they take the sign?
jeffreyw
Open house tomorrow at the local animal shelter. I will go with Mrs J and take a few pictures. Because we need moar kitteh!
C. Isaac
@Mnemosyne: I’ve heard that vaseline is suggested by the campaigns. It’s actually safe to touch, but is likely to feel like something disgusting and make the sign slippery to try to hold onto/pull up.
Mnemosyne
@YellowJournalism:
No, no, we need something that would a surprise. That would just be a confirmation.
maya
@Humanities Grad: You might borrow this method of protecting your signs, though it’s not fool proof.
Redshift
@Mnemosyne: Electrifying the frame?
ranchandsyrup
I had the distinct pleasure today of hand to hand FB combat with a pretend “independent” who hit the fainting couch about the Lena Dunham ad and was trying to concern troll. This led to some heroically contortionist defenses of ronaldus magnus reagan. Ahhh, work avoidance.
Humanities Grad
@Mnemosyne:
Hmmm…that’s really interesting. Hadn’t thought about that angle. I’ve got to try it. No shortage of dog poop, the Humanities Dogs are more than happy to provide all I could possibly need.
That’s brilliant. Thanks for the suggestion.
geg6
@C. Isaac:
Just the fact that you think about it puts you in the top 90% of your gender, so you’re doing fine. For me, it’s okay to say hey, sorry about that and talk to me about it as long as you aren’t pushy about not talking about what I prefer not to discuss with most people. But I think it’s important to be up front about my experience because I want people to realize that there is no shame in having been assaulted, physically and emotionally, and you can move on and have a good life without it defining you. Takes time and it does permanently mark you, but it’s been about forty years. Time really does heal all wounds, but not without some scarring.
Violet
Isn’t the hurricane an October surprise? It’s not a surprise in the sense that it appears all of a sudden, but in the sense that it’s unusual and not expected.
Redshift
There was also the neocons telling Netanyahu not to make a deal with Clinton, because they’d give him a better deal if Bush was elected. Not exactly a “surprise,” because a Middle East deal is never likely enough that it’s surprising if it doesn’t happen, but…
But it’s more evidence that to have an “October surprise,” you have to be willing to commit treason.
YellowJournalism
@Mnemosyne: If you could get some skunk spray…
Michael
Rosie Outlook
@R-Jud: Whoo-hoo, spooky stories! I was not familiar with the Jezebel site and didn’t know about this. Thanks!
I have 2 spooky stories and they both occurred in the same house when I was five. Never try to tell the grownups Something Pretty Strange just happened when you are five years old and your only witness is a dog. Once, I was considering which Little Golden Book I wanted to read when one scooted itself inward on the bookshelf as I watched, hitting the back of the bookcase with an audible clunk. The other time, I snuck out at dawn, as I was wont to do (we were out in the country). Pepper, the dog, and I were wandering around when we encountered a beautiful field of shining white and pastel long grass. We wandered around a while, I went back in to get everybody up and show them what I found, and when we got back outside it was gone. I was very upset. My parents said I dreamed it–but then why were my pj bottoms soaked all the way up with dew,, and what about Pepper? She was all wet too.
48 years later, I can’t explain either of these incidents. If you can, I’d be grateful.
lamh35
COOLEST FIRST LADY EVER!!
First Lady Michelle Obama appeared on Jimmy Kimmel Live with an important message: WAKE UP AND VOTE!
geg6
@Violet:
No, it wouldn’t be a surprise, just news (and for those of us in the path, possible danger and destruction). Neither campaign has any control over this, which is not what they are talking about when they talk about an October surprise. More like if Mittens’ taxes were suddenly to fall into the hands of, say, Jake Tapper.
leinie (iPad)
@C. Isaac: Read that this morning. Very powerful, and he’s policing the comments so the thread is equally powerful and interesting. Read his warning, though, cuz he is serious about that. He’s a really great writer.
SiubhanDuinne
@NotMax:
Wait, what? Pat Robertson’s gay?
Ksmiami
The navy is moving the ships out of the eastern seaboard. Hurricane sandy – frankenstorm is serious
geg6
@SiubhanDuinne:
Your internets are in the mail.
Geoduck
@Rosie Outlook:
If this happened in the middle of the night, the immediate suggestion would be that you were sleepwalking.
SatanicPanic
@Downpuppy: Wow, that’s interesting, thanks!
SiubhanDuinne
@lamh35:
She is just fucking awesome. And that GOTV spot was hilarious.
Oh and BTW in case I didn’t mention it, FLOTUS is fuc.king.awe.some.
The Bearded Blogger
Barak Obama is kicking ass in Ohio, even winning among Orcs (a traditional GOP constituency):
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/26/1150817/-CNN-knows-their-spin-and-they-re-sticking-with-it?detail=hide
Michael
Its amazing how much difficulty people have with a Margin of Error.
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/10/26/1150817/-CNN-knows-their-spin-and-they-re-sticking-with-it?showAll=yes
This should be required reading for everyone who covers presidential elections:
http://www.motherjones.com/kevin-drum/2012/10/one-last-encore-great-statistical-tie-fallacy
PreservedKillick
@Realist:
“Obama’s up 2-3 points in Ohio per all polling aggregates. Historically, that sort of advantage holds up a LOT with 10 days left.”
–Nate Silver
Linda Featheringill
@C. Isaac:
Thanks for the link to the article. I read it. It’s very well written.
I’m also a survivor. This happened many long years ago. Being reminded of it always scatters my brain.
Like now. I think I’ll go away and try to collect myself.
Chyron HR
@Realist:
So where are they?
Rosie Outlook
@Geoduck: Nope, dawn, and I was wide awake, as usual at that age. Still can’t figure it out.
ranchandsyrup
@Chyron HR: word on the street? Worst. Huggybear. Evar.
Yutsano
@Chyron HR: In his cute wittle head?
Lojasmo
Political Observer
Test
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
Here’s one reason. Our voters move. A lot. And they aren’t home on weekends,they’re working two jobs. They’re hard to find, register, and get hold of for GOTV.
So we have to work harder.
ETA: Second canvassing shift tomorrow, then possible a data entry shift. Sunday? Battening down for El Frankenstorm.
Hal
The whole concept of an October surprise doesn’t make sense to me. Why wouldn’t you just release the info early, say post convention when the party is stuck with the nominee, and ride the controversy into the Nov elections. Waiting until the last week of Oct, when so many have voted early makes no strategic sense.
Of course, since the Oct surprise is bullshit anyway, making sense isn’t really a priority.
Violet
@geg6: I get that its not an October surprise in the usual sense. But the storm is certainly a surprise for everyone including both campaigns. It could affect voting depending on how and where it hits. I’ve been through two major hurricanes, many tropical storms and know to take them.seriously. I hope people are prepared.
Steeplejack
(Belated) DVR Alert!
TCM is running a trio of heavy-duty political films tonight (all times EDT):
» Advise and Consent (1962), 8:00 p.m.
» All the President’s Men (1976), 10:30 p.m.
» Seven Days in May (1964), 1:00 a.m.
It’s a nice thematic progression: (1) The system is messed up! (2) The President is a crook! (3) ZOMG the military is taking over!
MikeJ
@Steeplejack: You left out Jungle Gents with the Bowery Boys.
Let’s give ’em routine 11!
SiubhanDuinne
@Realist:
::starts to type a response::
Fuckit. DNFTT DNFTT DNFTT.
SatanicPanic
@Realist: What? I thought Romney was already running away with those. Now Romney needs a storm to help him out? very questionable Realist, very questionable.
Brother Shotgun of Sweet Reason
@Hal: Those last two October surprises occurred before the days of early voting.
Steeplejack
@MikeJ:
LOL. Let’s say I didn’t think this crowd could take that level of legislative realism.
MikeJ
@Steeplejack: Oh jeez, Wolf Blitzer.
Rosie Outlook
@Mnemosyne: I’d go with the dog poop. I dislike thieves.
Steeplejack
@MikeJ:
I thought his cameo scene with Satch was really good!
Hal
This storm is bad news for Obama, folks. Everyone knows the people who can get out and about the easiest are the over 50 crowd in rural areas, as opposed to younger voters in cities and suburbs with solid infrastructure. Mitt will have a army of older white folks driving to the polling stations in there larks in Florida and VA to wipe the floor with Obama!!
lahru
God dammit, if Barack was white and had a name like Frederick everything would be fine.
But NOOOO he has a Muslim name and he’s the wrong color.
Help me ’cause I’m kinda lost here………..
Chyron HR
Did Mitt conjure the Superstorm? Is that one of the magic powers that he wields as the Messiah foretold in the holy Mormon scriptures?
Chris
@C. Isaac:
Scalzi is indeed the man. I’ve only read the Old Man’s War trilogy so far, but it reads like a grown-up version of Starship Troopers, which is fantastic (always nice when you find out that a right wing cultural landmark has an intelligent counterpart).
His blog is frequently hysterical, too.
Waldo
Republican Lawrence Wilkerson on the Ed Show first says Sununu is full crap then says his party is “full of racists”. Good for him.
The Lodger
@maya: I was looking for a new nym for posting on Wonkette. I think “Traditional Shit Moat” was just what I was looking for.
Anne Laurie
@Evolving Deep Southerner: Fixed. Thanks!
Ben Cisco (onboard the Defiant)
Rachel is at it again. MoneyBooBoo should be in flames from the heat she’s throwing. Absolutely awesome.
Svensker
@Waldo:
Lawrence Wilkerson is a Republican in the same way Lanny Davis is a Democrat.
I like Wilkerson though.
Evolving Deep Southerner
@Anne Laurie: NP. Good post. I think if I met all the BJ front-pagers in person, I believe you’d be the coolest. Kay would be cool, too, I imagine. And Betty Cracker. In fact, all the distaff front-pagers would be cool to actually meet. ABL might be a little much, but otherwise, yeah.
ETA: I actually have met Dennis G. back in the early 90s. He’s a good dude in person unless he’s changed a lot. So there’s one for the testosterone-addled side of the Balloon Juice team.
Lurker
@lamh35: That was awesome. I ♥ our First Lady.
burnspbesq
@Mnemosyne:
Naah. Everybody knows Jimmy Hoffa is under what used to be the south end zone of the old Giants Stadium.
Trump has Amelia Earhart under his hair. Complete with airplane.
Ash Can
@dmsilev: The Trib endorsed Obama last time too. This is not a big surprise.
The prophet Nostradumbass
@Evolving Deep Southerner: I did meet Kay last year at Netroots Nation, and she is indeed quite cool.
Frank
Russia invades Georgia, August 2008
Opie_jeanne
@geg6: I dont talk about it,ever. It has been 36 years since I had to deal with the consequences, which were made more complex because I was married and had just lost an unexpected pregnancy. This is the first time I’ve talked about it since I tried to confide in a friend and she was obviously horrified… or didn’t believe me about the rape.
I guess I was trying to say to you that I’m sorry it happened to you and I’m glad you didn’t let it define you.
CarolDuhart2
@Hal: Because back when an “October Surprise” was actually relevant, nobody except elderly people voted early (before election day by mail. Also most people’s source of information, beside campaign flyers, was television reports and underground rumors. So something that happened in October could still sway the vote.
Facebook killed the October surprise. E-mail killed the October Surprise. How can it be a surprise when the perpetrators blog their participation, and how can it effect the election when about a million folks have already voted early and will vote all the way up until Election Day?