Harry Reid was in a car accident in Nevada a short while ago. He walked into the Emergency Room at the nearest hospital under his own power.
538 Blog has 73.1% to re-elect. (corrected)
Also, the Rmoney campaign has produced the world’s worst photoshop job in a sad attempt to make it look like more people are supporting him than there really are in Nevada.
Open Thread. We’re about to start the weekend. Lots of SWTOR for me.
Hal
I cannot wait for this election to be over. I feel like this campaign has been ongoing since Aug of 2007. Nov 6th is going to be a hoot. I have an exam at 7:00am the next morning, so I may not sleep at all.
dmsilev
?
73.!% on the forecast, 75.9% in the NowCast. Hasn’t been updated with today’s polls yet though.
JenJen
ROMENTUM!!
j
Romney caught photoshopping his campaign appearances in order to make the crowd look bigger!
http://www.buzzfeed.com/zekejmiller/romney-campaign-appears-to-exaggerate-size-of-neva
That guy will lie about everything!
More from “AmericaBlog”, he even ended up spelling his own name wrong with that lame ass attempt to crop extra people into the tent.
http://americablog.com/2012/10/romney-photoshop-crowd-siz.html
Soonergrunt
@dmsilev: corrected.
dmsilev
And apparently Romney’s big speech today had this inspirational line:
The lives of our homes? I guess for a parasite like Romney, that’s accurate, but shouldn’t it technically be ‘the lives of our hosts’ in that case?
Bulworth
I’d feel better if I could see a major national poll showing a PBO lead.
JenJen
@dmsilev: Yes but Mark Halperin tweeted that it was a good speech and that the Romney campaign plane is buzzing with confidence.
Also too, Unskew The Polls is so 2000 and late. The kool kidz are now Unskewing The Ohio Early Vote Numbers. Have you heard?
Raven
@Bulworth: No you wouldn’t, you’d find some other reason to “worry”.
owlbear1
Lots of SWTOR for me.
Such a beautiful game to look at, too bad I couldn’t afford the 12 hours it took to get it running again after every patch.
the Conster
I’ve had several conversations with white middle aged men about this election over the past few weeks, and they’re feeling old, grumpy and out of touch. This is their last gasp, and they know it. They’re going all in for Romney, and it has nothing to do with policy and they don’t like him, but he’s their tribal leader. It’s pathetic.
dmsilev
@JenJen: Let me guess. When the proper numerical adjustments are made, Mitt Romney is winning the early vote in Ohio by 110%.
joeyess
Jesus.
Romney’s entire campaign has devolved into such an abyss of lies that I’m afraid it’s going to claim victory on November 6th. Election results be damned.
Soonergrunt
@owlbear1: I’ve never had a problem, myself.
dmsilev
@joeyess: You know, that would be hilarious on Election Night. Network after network announces that Obama has passed 270 Electoral Votes, and we wait for the traditional concession speech from the loser, and word comes from the Romney camp that they’re waiting for Obama to concede before giving their victory speech.
JenJen
@dmsilev: How did you know that without even looking!! Damn, you’re good! :-)
Also, Jake Tapper is excited that Ann Romney called his cousin’s friend who lives in Ohio to wish him a happy birthday. Squeeeeeee!
And, you know, from our friends at Red State, this is gonna be a fun post to pull up on November 7th.
Michael
@dmsilev: Unskew the electoral vote!
bemused
@the Conster:
So much for “values” I assume those grumpy old men claim to have.
beltane
I, a nobody, can also receive rapturous applause from a photoshopped crowd.
batgirl
@dmsilev: I think it’s missing something
SatanicPanic
@the Conster: No kidding, they sure got a sad candidate to have to vote for. Serves them right.
trollhattan
As a
generalspecific rule, I stay clear of any and all ca si no s, but if I did frequent them (and there’s a crapload to choose from) these asshats would have me finding a new hobby. Now Steve Wynn’s telling his maids (the legal ones) to vote Republican.http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/10/25/wynn-employee-voter-guide_n_2018595.html?utm_hp_ref=tw
Higgs Boson's Mate
Hard to believe that this is the same party that smoked out supposed irregularities in the kerning of the type in GWB’s Air National Guard paperwork.
trollhattan
@beltane:
They love you down to their very pixels.
j
@JenJen: Unskew has Romney 359 EV / Obama 179 EV.
TBogg adds:
http://tbogg.firedoglake.com/2012/10/26/unskewed-studmuffin-dean-chambers-does-not-care-for-nate-silvers-dickless-polling/
beltane
@the Conster: I’ve noticed the same thing. But remember, it’s Colin Powell who’s the real racist in all of this.
scav
Romnmney is leader of Amercia with 1010% of the vote! RoRoRomentumumum!
piratedan
Romney’s campaign has taken on the odious tactic of the 8 year old kid in the neighborhood that never gets shot while playing Army and never commits a foul on the basketball court…. I really hated that kid.
Michael Bersin
In the Missouri Lieutenant Governor race incumbent Peter Kinder (r) (he of large luxury hotel bills on the state’s dime, stripper association, and losing health care lawsuit) has released an ad attacking Susan Montee (D) because she attended the St. Louis gay pride parade.
Uh, if you’re not afraid to be around gay people in public it just means you’re not a bigot…
JenJen
@j: I just choked on my beer reading the headline!!
the Conster
@SatanicPanic:
They’ve got a white guy, like they are, to vote for. That’s all it is. Regarding women’s’ issues or Medicare or anything else – one guy said yeah, those things are important, but he doesn’t “trust” Obama. So he’s voting for Mitt? What else can it be, other than race?
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Michael Bersin:
Maybe he just hates parades.
taylormattd
Are you still liking SWTOR?
I’ll be honest, I didn’t even finish leveling my Jedi Consular, but I’m considering starting playing again.
Although all of the fucking dailies is MoP are taking up my time. Ugh.
handy
Actually that Romney crowd photo looks somebody used an iPhone cam in panorama mode and got some bad stitching.
Raven
#10 Georgia vs #2 Florida. . .that is all.
bemused
@the Conster:
They don’t mind all the lying Mitt does, don’t believe he is lying, too dim to notice or all three?
tulip
@JenJen:
Romnmnetum
I think you mean…
Democrat Partisan Asshole
Obvious photoshop is obvious.
Hey, I get it. When you’re desperate and losing, you’ll do anything.
handy
@taylormattd:
My god that xpac has been out a month already. I feel like I’ve been living under a rock.
scav
@handy: Even if charitably accepted as true, they went with, chose and released a visibly inferior product. Makes you think, no?
Politically Lost
Sooner. What SWTOR server do you use?
taylormattd
@j: LMAO.
Hey, I’m proud to be in Washington State, one of only a tiny handful of states that will vote for Obama. LOL.
Someguy
I’m surprised Silver only has it at a 73% chance of an Obama win. I’d have expected more like 90% given the healthy leads in Ohio, Virgina, Florida and Wisconsin, never mind PA which the Republicans always think is going to go R, but never quite does.
General Stuck
Crazy wingnuts. Now they wanted “Barry” to deploy C 130 Spectre gunships to have saved the day in Benghazi. Mini guns and cannon fire. Yea, that’s the ticket for an over run base. Just kill everything and let god sort it out.
Nice to see Confederate Yankee land on his feet wingnut river city.
PsiFighter37
@j: I want some of the rubbing alcohol this Dean Chambers is drinking. Apparently it’s slow-acting enough not to kill you right away but good enough to bend the rules and logic of math.
a
@joeyess:
On November 7th, will Romney be like Zoolander walking onstage to “accept” the presidency?
piratedan
@JenJen: wow, hard to believe that they think that because the Tea Party happened that suddenly another 15% of America suddenly leans Right considering all of the Tea Party faves that crashed and burned in their Senate races, but I guess my reality doesn’t touch very much of theirs.
taylormattd
@handy: If you haven’t started playing it, don’t bother.
I mean, I’m hooked like a crack addict. And also, a lot of the Pandaria content is beautiful. But the end game (i.e., level 90) content is trash.
Although they claim it is purely optional, you are expected to farm what ends up being something like a hundred dailes every day, I swear. The grind is out of fucking control.
handy
@scav:
Makes me think they thought nobody would notice or care. Which, wow.
the Conster
@bemused:
They think every politician lies, and Mitt’s “just playing the game” he needs to play to win. They don’t think, of course, anything Mitt does as president will affect them, because you know, they’re white guys.
jeremy
The national polls showed Obama being closer in the national vote. And the spread was larger than what gallup and some other reported. The media is hyping conservative polls for the horse race narrative. You want to know who is in command in this race? look at the confidence coming from the Obama campaign people and the president. They are looking at the numbers and they know they are in command. The media is going to look real bad on election day because they are underestimating minority/ democratic support.
fuddmain
@Raven:
Go Gators!
joes527
I’ve been reading the forums at Intrade lately. It is fascinating to see how many people think not only that Romney is going to win, but he is a lock, and will be winning big (360+ EVs)
Reading the forums there is like visiting a parallel universe where everyone has beards.
The only sense I can make of it is that the crowd that hangs out at an Internet betting site probably skews from the population at large.
handy
@taylormattd:
That’s what I thought made Cata so bad and that’s what I thought they were supposedly going to fix, among other things.
Yeah I’ll skip. (Not that I have much choice–having a newborn made that one for me).
JenJen
@piratedan: Yes, and they conveniently forget that Governor Kasich here in Ohio had his ass handed to him on a silver platter by voters over his union-busting SB5 initiative just last November, the first time Buckeyes got a chance to vote on something a 2010 Teabagger actually did.
To me, the SB5 Repeal is what I’m hanging my Ohio Confidence Hat on. The pundits can talk GM Bailout all they want, but SB5 deserves at least as much credit for Obama staying ahead in Ohio, certainly in my part of the state (Cincinnati).
burnspbesq
@Bulworth:
Why? National polls are irrelevant. We don’t have a national election; we have 51 state/DC elections.
jeremy
I should have said the polls underestimated Obama’s support in 08.
PsiFighter37
@taylormattd: I’m disappointed that they focused on the MMORPG instead of doing KOTOR 3. Although KOTOR 2 was a bit sucky (mainly because the plot wasn’t well fleshed-out), KOTOR 1 was teh awesome.
The only MMO I ever bothered playing Matrix Online, but I quit after I maxed out because I couldn’t be bothered to grind; leading a guild meant dealing with stupid shit, and I was in school. It also became apparent that there was really no good way to go about telling the story, especially once they offed Morpheus for no good reason (spoiler alert? Does anyone care?).
muddy
@jeremy: They have to sell those ad spots whatever way they can.
greenergood
‘the lives of our homes’ – Rmoney has many homes to look after, you know – esp. cause Ann’s all tied up wih the dancing horses, and getting designer outfits lined up for the Inaugural Balls – in fact, Rmoney’s looking after far more homes than children (and look how the kids turned out, wanting to take swings at the ‘bleh’ President, going on Mormon-jaunts instead of invading aka ‘serving in’ Afghanistan, and such-like).
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Someguy:
Silver’s model has an uncertainty factor, aka an October Surprise probability factor, built into it, which decays to zero as we approach election day. Basically X = while there’s still some time left, something weird could happen to shift the race; less time = less chance for something weird to happen. Expect Nate’s Obama win probability to creep up as the race continues to maintain its current state with nothing really newsworthy happening. That doesn’t mean that swing voters are moving towards Obama, but rather that the clock is running out on Romnmney’s attempt to swing voters to his side.
giltay
I dunno. As someone who’s put together panoramas badly, this looks like a shitty job of stitching more than a shitty job of deliberate fraud.
joes527
@Someguy:
Both Silver and Wang are currently painting Florida Red
BTW Wang’s meta-margin broke 2% today. :)
Judas Escargot, Acerbic Prophet of the Mighty Potato God
@the Conster:
Pretty much this.
Michael Bersin
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Among stories like the $52,000 reimbursement to the state for travel (including 329 hotel stays in St. Louis) and the former adult magazine female model story he had to do something…
Svensker
So nutty New Yorker Carl Palladino is having bumper stickers put on Thrifty Rental cars in Buffalo that say “vote for the American”. (Huffpo link, sorry).
You can contact Thrifty HQ in Tulsa to register your disgust here.
General Stuck
Teehee, President Snark strikes again.
bemused
@the Conster:
Very dim white guys. For all the tearing of hair and screeching about anyone trying to take away their Medicare, they’re quite blase about it now. They can’t be bothered to do even a little research. Deep down, they know they can simply blame Obama/Dems anyway letting them off the personal responsibility hook.
@piratedan:
Tea party types writing letters to local papers all think they are in the majority with most people in the district sharing their values, religious bent and politics. How they know this when I’m pretty sure they don’t talk to or associate much with any other groups of people, I have no idea. They are hermetically sealed in their rightwing bubble.
Maude
@burnspbesq:
What about Guam?
Hill Dweller
@jeremy: It’s ultimately about turnout for our side. If OFA can get all their voters to the polls, Obama will win.
Gallup went to +5 because they’re now forecasting every demographic, save white men from 50-64, will turnout in lower numbers. That said, even if their likely forecast models are right, I still can’t see Willard coming close to winning the popular vote by 5 points.
geg6
@handy:
Yeah, that’s what all the wingnuts over at Buzzfeed are saying. Is that really the crowd you want to hang your hat on?
And you really think the Rmonemoney campaign official photos are taken with a phone camera? Seriously?
dmsilev
Pigs fly, Hell freezes over, and the Chicago Tribune endorses Obama. And really doesn’t like Mitt:
re: Obama, they end with this:
Arm The Homeless
@fuddmain:
woo … Florida …!
That’s all you’re getting from this ‘Nole.
PsiFighter37
@General Stuck: I don’t like all this talk of bipartisanship. He should know better by now and be prepared to bring a sledgehammer to any meetings with the GOP.
ThatLeftTurnInABQ
@Michael Bersin:
OK, so he hates parades and really, really likes St. Louis. And ummm, he ummm, likes to have somebody else to read the articles with. Somebody young and cute so they have better eyesight (dang reading glasses!).
YellowJournalism
My mom got a call from some organization promoting Romney and the Republicans. She told them she would never vote for a man like Romney and would be voting straight Democratic ticket from now on. The person didn’t even have a comeback and just hung up on her.
She got a call today for me (I still get calls despite not living here for years.), and they wouldn’t admit who they were. When they finally did, she told the woman fat chance and hung up.
handy
@geg6:
I would say they have a case, nonetheless how are you not tempted to reply with a link to that totes real video of Barack’s birth in Kenya? The responses to that would be priceless.
Linda Featheringill
@the Conster:
Yeah. Some of the middle aged white males are having a hard time keeping up with the world. It’s my unscientific observation that they’re breaking about 60-40 for Romney. And that’s just the ones who are actually going to vote.
kimiko
Advice wanted!
I live in MD district 1 (R-Harris). The Dem candidate disqualified herself, but still appears on the ballot. What should I do? Do the write in Dem? Or something else?
Thanks!
Roger Moore
@joes527:
But it’s apparently only that one site. One of the things that Nate Silver pointed out is that Intrade has very different odds than conventional book makers. It’s as if Intrade has attracted a bunch of Republican partisans who really want to believe that he’s going to win, and that’s skewing the odds. There should be an arbitrage opportunity for somebody to bet on Obama at Intrade and Romney elsewhere.
General Stuck
@PsiFighter37:
I do. So long as it is mostly talk.
Maude
@PsiFighter37:
Are you saying you don’t like the START treaty being ratified? DADT? Unemployment benefits being extended? Health care?
Sparrowgal
@batgirl: Homes are people, too! (or is that one getting a wee overused??) Do like your amendment, though.
Perfect Tommy
Homeless Calico in Laurel Maryland.
I found a young calico living in my garage. She was dirty and thin but otherwise in good health and very friendly. Vet says she is negative for FeLV and not pregnant. She is spending the night at North Laurel Animal Hospital to be spayed and bathed and have some ticks and ear mites removed. I have a high-prey greyhound and cannot bring her into the house. I’ve contacted the no-kills in the area and no one has room. Anybody want a cat? : )
Tommy (202) 618-1507
bemused
There was a tea party rally in a small NE MN town of about 9,000 people recently with several smaller towns located near by. My spouse heard from a wingnut guy who has a tiny newspaper and attended it. I was a little surprised the wingnut guy volunteered that there were only about 20 people there. I would have thought with at least 30,000 to 40,000 people in a 10 mile radius, they could have gotten more than 20 nuts to come.
trollhattan
@General Stuck:
I so wish he’d have offered to walk McConnell’s turtle.
lol
@Maude:
Except for Obamacare (*) and the budget, almost every major piece of legislation Obama signed needed at least a couple Republican votes to pass.
(*) And that’s only if you don’t count Arlen Specter as a Republican after he switched parties.
geg6
@dmsilev:
Wow. Isn’t that the GOPer newspaper? That would sorta be like the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review endorsing O. Now that would be when pigs fly.
trollhattan
@kimiko:
Knowing nothing about your state’s laws, I’d determine who, if anybody, the party has put forward to replace the previous candidate’s and write them in. If nobody, time for darts, I guess.
SatanicPanic
@General Stuck:
You know, people get upset about “telling voters what they want to hear” but this is a case of telling the media what they want to hear. And all available evidence suggests the media want to be lied to so no harm done.
C. Isaac
So, John Scalzi wrote a rather scathing parody. I thought I’d throw this out here.
Warning, it’s very graphic and involves all the recent rape talk: click here if you dare.
maya
Mitt draws an even larger crowd at night .
General Stuck
@SatanicPanic:
A lot of it is media and the horserace, kumbaya thing. But is also a swath of voters as well, that aren’t hardened ideologues and are right to expect engagement and compromise. As that is the core essence of democracy.
The fact that the republicans have decided to not practice that democracy in good faith, is a separate issue from the visible effort. If for no other reason than to go thru the motions, and put the onus on the ones that aren’t playing well with others.
Mnemosyne
@dmsilev:
Didn’t they endorse Obama in 2008, or did they punt and not endorse anyone?
Either way, I’m not too surprised that they would endorse the hometown guy, even if he’s not a Republican.
Mnemosyne
@Perfect Tommy:
If you can snap a pic and send it to Anne Laurie (e-mail at the right), she can front-page kitty for you.
Comrade Mary
@joes527:
To quote Reagan: “It only hurts for a minute and then it feels just great.”
jenn
@Perfect Tommy: Shoot an email to Anne Laurie and Sooner, and maybe they can put of a pet bleg. Thanks for rescuing her!
taylormattd
@handy: It is SO much worse, you can’t imagine. I spent four (4) hours doing dailies one day, and finally thought, holy fuck, what am I doing.
They lifted the 25 cap on the number of dailies you can complete every day because there are so many. It is TERRIBLE.
Soonergrunt
@taylormattd: I’m liking it. I don’t get to play it as much as I’ve wanted, but I’m liking it.
Rusty
Harry Reid has an auto accident and is able to simply walk into the hospital? At this point, I think Harry Reid could probably kick Chuck Norris’ ass.
Michael Bersin
@ThatLeftTurnInABQ:
Not that young and not that cute.
slag
@C. Isaac: That was a cringe-worthy post he wrote, but it was well worth it. The man knows his stuff.
JenJen
Nate Silver 6:01 pm update: 74.4%. Ohio goes up to 76%.
Squeeeeee!
Evolving Deep Southerner
@Raven: Yes. This is an accurate summation of the weekend. 20-25 mph winds with gusts up to 40 mph forecast for Jax. Not ideal for a passing attack. And a kicking game? Advantage, us, because our special teams can’t get worse.
Lojasmo
@Bulworth:
You’d pivot to “national polls don’t matter, Pensylvania and Florida are too tight”
How about you simply shut the fuck up.
Joel
Fuck concern trolls!
SiubhanDuinne
@JenJen:
I managed to get into the article, but had to quit after “human gravy manufacturing plant.”
Because LULZ.
oklahomo
Now, now, now, any minute we’ll be treated to a Benghazi scale model in a sandbox that will prove, prove I tell you, what exactly we should have done.