Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

People really shouldn’t expect the government to help after they watched the GOP drown it in a bathtub.

Nothing says ‘pro-life’ like letting children go hungry.

The republican speaker is a slippery little devil.

Marge, god is saying you’re stupid.

I don’t recall signing up for living in a dystopian sci-fi novel.

Whatever happens next week, the fight doesn’t end.

Putin must be throwing ketchup at the walls.

Bark louder, little dog.

The willow is too close to the house.

You passed on an opportunity to be offended? What are you even doing here?

“But what about the lurkers?”

Find someone who loves you the way trump and maga love traitors.

Trumpflation is an intolerable hardship for every American, and it’s Trump’s fault.

Perhaps you mistook them for somebody who gives a damn.

They traffic in fear. it is their only currency. if we are fearful, they are winning.

My right to basic bodily autonomy is not on the table. that’s the new deal.

Prediction: the gop will rethink its strategy of boycotting future committees.

When you’re a Republican, they let you do it.

The world has changed, and neither one recognizes it.

We will not go quietly into the night; we will not vanish without a fight.

Michigan is a great lesson for Dems everywhere: when you have power…use it!

So fucking stupid, and still doing a tremendous amount of damage.

Stop using mental illness to avoid talking about armed white supremacy.

Disappointing to see gov. newsom with his finger to the wind.

You are here: Home / Balloon Juice / Bleg / Everything seems to be up in the air at this time

Everything seems to be up in the air at this time

by | 143 Comments

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Public enemy number one Nate Silver makes a simple case for Obama being the favorite:

Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

I buy this, but I also believe it’s time to throw the Republicans an anvil. Do some canvassing this weekend if you can. Give MBAL some money if you’ve got it:

Goal Thermometer

And don’t forget to vote, and harangue all of your deadbeat (but liberal) friends into voting on Tuesday.

Reader Interactions

143Comments

  2. 2.

    AA+ Bonds

    INFILTRATING THE LINCOLN CLUB: MY LUNCH WITH THE POWERFUL RIGHTWING GROUP BEHIND CITIZENS UNITED AND CA’S ANTI-UNION LEGISLATION by Matthew Fleischer

    “Hi, I’m Teresa. I’m a member.” She lets that settle in. “So… ‘Allen,’” she says, staring skeptically at my pseudonymous name tag. “Where are you from?”
    __
    “Glendale,” I tell her, which is true, even though it’s an hour’s drive north in L.A. County – which has its own Lincoln Club.
    __
    “Glendale, huh? That must have been quite a . . . schlep.”
    __
    I breathe a sigh of relief. She doesn’t suspect me of being a journalist. I must have merely set off her Jewdar.
    __
    “Oy,” I say, laying it on thick, “a schlep indeed. No traffic, thank heavens.”

  5. 5.

    Elizabelle

    Nate Silver. Confidence Fairy assassin.

    A third argument is that Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday.
    __
    This may be the worst of the arguments, in my view. It is contradicted by the evidence, simply put.

  6. 6.

    Culture of Truth

    “The truth is, the next election has already been decided. Obama is going to win. It’s nearly impossible to beat an incumbent president,” advertiser Porter Stansberry wrote in an email sent to Gingrich supporters.

    “What’s actually at stake right now is whether or not he will have a third-term.”

  7. 7.

    handy

    @AA+ Bonds:

    YES BUT UNIONS ARE TAKING MONEY OUT OF MY PAYCHECK TO CONTRIBUTE TO SLEAZOCRAT POLITICIANS AND SOROS TWO GUYS ON THE RADIO TOLD ME THE OTHER DAY I AM VERY CONCERNED!

  9. 9.

    gbear

    I stamped and dropped 500 GOTV postcards in the mail on halloween night for people who’d pledged to vote NO against the MN marriage ammendment.

    I really don’t have any deadbeat friends. Everybody votes and everyone votes either straight Dem ticket or for the genuinely moderate republican (I <3 Arne Carlson). There haven't been any moderate republicans for ages so it's straight Dem all the way down the ticket for me and most of my friends and family.

  10. 10.

    catclub

    “Obama’s ahead in Ohio.”

    Doesn’t quite scan with ‘Four dead in O-hi-o’
    But the head rhymes with dead.

  13. 13.

    Smiling Mortician

    @Culture of Truth: Lolwut? Don’t get me wrong — I’m glad you didn’t provide a link, but still, WTF does he mean? Or, alternatively, never mind because I don’t really care.

  15. 15.

    Seanly

    I do worry about voting issues in a few states like OH, PA, CO, etc. etc. However, if you talk to my wife, you’ll find I have a tendency to be a bit of a chicken little – mostly in regards to our checkbook…

  17. 17.

    Just Some Fuckhead

    So tired of Gay Silver and The Liberal New York Times doing their damnednest to destroy white America. Save us Governor Christie!

  18. 18.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @Elizabelle:

    Silver is wrong.

    The momentum Rmoney has been showing is that of losing ground.

    Therefore, the more ground that is lost in the polls in the next four days, the more likely his landslide is.

    OK, I just seriously dislocated my brain with that last sentence.

  19. 19.

    handy

    Metrosexual Abelincoln Manichean Monster Disco DougJ’s first post title after it’s been called: Way to go, Ohio

  22. 22.

    Schlemizel

    BIL posted some piece of dog shit on FB supposed to be a letter he received from BCBS saying how insurance rates are going to skyrocket because of AHA. It looks all very official but it smelled bad. Went to Snoopes . . . do I even need to finish this sentence? Pure 100% bullshit. I posted “ITS A GOD DAMNED LIE” and the snoopes link.

    I shouldn’t be surprised, back in the 90’s he had my dad terrified that The Klinton wassa designing a plan that would send old people to death camps (I am not exaggerating sadly) and my dad, a life-long Dem & proud union member fell for it.

    If I may paraphrase Sammy L: I am so fucking sick of these motherfucking wingnuts on my motherfucking country.

  24. 24.

    mdblanche

    Obama’s ahead in Ohio.

    Interesting. Not “Mr. Obama is ahead,” just “Obama’s ahead.” Seems like somebody is getting tired of the New York Times and all of its pretensions.

  25. 25.

    donnah

    I’ll be out of town on Election Day, so I voted absentee. It will be the first time I’ve ever been away from home during the Election, and that will be tough. When Obama won in 2008, my husband and I toasted the momentous win with champagne. I kept the cork from the bottle and I’m taking it with me when I leave this weekend. I guess we’ll celebrate when I get back.

  26. 26.

    shortstop

    I love Sam Wang, cranky old man in a young man’s body, more every day. This morning he gently tears off Chris Cillizza’s arms and beats Cillizza with them.

    ETA: That’s the adorable kind of cranky old man, not the kind we usually get around here.

  27. 27.

    muddy

    @catclub:

    Doesn’t quite scan with ‘Four dead in O-hi-o’
    But the head rhymes with dead.

    How dare you!! It’s 4 dead in Benghazi, but the lieberal media won’t let anyone talk about it.

  29. 29.

    rageahol

    All across the nation people are getting together….

    Can’t believe 24 comments and no recognition yet. Late 80s college radio 4 lyfe.

  30. 30.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Elizabelle: Between this and the economy improving with the deficit still fairly high, confidence fairies may be falling from the sky this winter. The Republican party might have to adopt “Puff the Magic Dragon” as their new theme song.

    I was hearing today that NYC-NJ cleanup is going to take so much money that it will likely be a surprise stimulus program all its own, because even the scrooges in the GOP can’t really deny people who have no water, roads, houses, etc, and I was thinking that could actually spur a real recovery finally.

  31. 31.

    Chyron HR

    Romney/Ryan is EXPANDING THE MAP into Pennsylvania, Oklahoma and Organ! Is Ohio now IRRELEVANT?

  32. 32.

    dedc79

    Note that Rasmussen has begun its pre-election reversion to the mean so that they can claim they were accurate on election day.

    the national tracker had romney in the lead for the past few weeks, but now shows a tie.

    The ohio poll that had been one of the only to show romney winning is now a tie.

    Expect more of the same between now and election day.

  33. 33.

    The Dangerman

    …to throw the Republicans an anvil.

    Then give them lots of Advil.

    I estimate that the chances of Obama being impeached if the Republicans keep the House is roughly 100% (Benghazi! Benghazi! Benghazi!). Of course, it will be a waste of time given the Senate makeup, but wasting time is what they will want to do. In a perfect world, the House flips and the Senate nukes the Filibuster and we get on with the business of fixing shit.

  34. 34.

    Nina

    Florida is going to be called early for Obama. PA and Ohio are going to be called late because of Sandy-related delays (PA) and vote counting shenanigans (OH, with their Republican secretary of state). Obama will win anyway, but there will be questions and poutrage and the Republicans will refuse to concede for at least 4 more years.

  35. 35.

    pseudonymous in nc

    Oregonians who like their all-postal ballot system may not be impressed by the temporary election worker in one county who’s been helpfully filling in those ballots for the GOP. (Though the fact that the state is coming down on it like a ton o’bricks is a testament to Oregon’s culture of fair elections, which is what matters here.)

  37. 37.

    Sir Nose'D

    I did some early voting today in Montgomery Co., Ohio, and you better believe I brought the funk. I funked the shit out of that ballot.

    More to the point, though, I arrived at 10 am, and was #400. It took me an hour to get a ballot, and when I left they were in the 600s. And if one is to believe the August poll numbers of blah-Americans (you know, 94-0), I would say it was a very good day for Obama at the booth.

  38. 38.

    Yutsano

    @The Dangerman: I can’t fathom how the teatard freshmen are keeping their seats. They haven’t done jack in Congress over the last two years and in some ways made things worse. Of course this is all Obama’s fault.

  42. 42.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Yutsano:

    I can’t fathom how the teatard freshmen are keeping their seats.

    Redistricting, in some cases. In others, the power of incumbency to raise money from the moment they took office.

  43. 43.

    The Ancient Randonneur

    Bobo, the Moustache of Understanding, and DoubThat regularly write drivel in the NYT and not a peep. But Nate gets scolded for actually doing his job and THEN having the stones to back up his work! Those biased liberals at the NYT are getting very tiresome.

  45. 45.

    The Dangerman

    @Yutsano:

    Of course this is all Obama’s fault.

    Goes without saying; after all, he hasn’t been sufficiently bipartisan (read: he hasn’t rolled over and let the Tea Party burn it to the ground).

    After all the redistricting shenanigans after 2010, I expect most of the Plain White Tea Shits to get reelected; indeed, I’d be far from surprised if only a few of them get defeated. The game at that level is basically rigged.

  46. 46.

    EconWatcher

    @Nina:

    If Obama wins and the Senate stays in Dem hands, I suspect Justice Ginsberg will announce retirement fairly soon. She’s had a lot of health problems (and deserves a good rest with the nation’s thanks).

    Her replacement? I’m gunning for someone no older than 50, a health-food and exercise nut whose parents both lived into their 90s…..

  48. 48.

    mdblanche

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    Between this and the economy improving with the deficit still fairly high, confidence fairies may be falling from the sky this winter.

    “There ought to be one confidence fairy for every columnist and pundit.”

    “Ought to be? Isn’t there?”

    “No. You see bloggers know such a lot now, they soon don’t believe in confidence fairies, and every time a blogger says, ‘I don’t believe in confidence fairies,’ there is a little confidence fairy somewhere that falls down dead.”

  49. 49.

    cmorenc

    @Yutsano:

    I can’t fathom how the teatard freshmen are keeping their seats. They haven’t done jack in Congress over the last two years and in some ways made things worse.

    Because the GOP successfully parlayed their success in state house elections in 2010 into gerrymandering a twenty seat net advantage in the house to the GOP. In North Carolina, the gerrymandering was so aggressive down to street level that individual precincts were split across two or more congressional or state legislature districts.

  50. 50.

    catclub

    @rlrr: Yes, I posted yesterday that Mittmentum in Florida is receding and that the response to Sandy might be helping. 1) Sandy did not hit Florida
    2) response to Sandy was competent.

    George W Bush could be looked on as an UNlucky amulet for the US. 9/11, Katrina, then all the littler bad things, starting with a US submarine surfacing (showboating) and sinking a Japanese fishing boat, Then 4 or five Hurricanes in 2004,
    then the 2008 financial crisis.

    Obama, by contrast, has been both competent and lucky.

    Obama

  53. 53.

    eemom

    I haven’t cared much for a lot of Silver’s written work, but his column today is priceless — essentially boils down to “Look, assholes, this ain’t complicated. You wanna deny reality, be my guest.”

  54. 54.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @EconWatcher:

    Her replacement? I’m gunning for someone no older than 50, a health-food and exercise nut whose parents both lived into their 90s…..

    That’s Nate Silver’s next dataset: probability that a SCOTUS appointee will live for the next X years. Lots of actuarial tables for that one.

  55. 55.

    geg6

    @Nina:

    PA and Ohio are going to be called late because of Sandy-related delays (PA)

    Doubtful. I am in PA and communicate daily with our campuses all over the state. I am unaware of any reason there would be delays.

  57. 57.

    Higgs Boson's Mate

    @catclub:
    Bloomberg is saying that the damage estimate for Sandy is around $50bn. Romney is missing a bet if he doesn’t start barnstorming the area and having folks pass the hat to raise that sum.

  58. 58.

    catclub

    @Bill E Pilgrim: “even the scrooges in the GOP can’t really deny people who have no water, roads, houses, etc”

    Your faith in the goodness of scoundrels is touching.
    They wanted cuts to pay for emergency relief to Missouri.
    You can bet they will demand it for NY/NJ/Conn.

  59. 59.

    eemom

    @shortstop:

    I love Sam Wang, cranky old man in a young man’s body, more every day. This morning he gently tears off Chris Cillizza’s arms and beats Cillizza with them.

    I kiss his cranky old feet. Fucking HATE that little prick.

  60. 60.

    Ash Can

    I just hope other states can pick up the slack for Ohio if OH turns out to be the clusterfuck discussed a couple of threads ago. More than ever, I hope it turns out that ThinkProgress et al. are worried for nothing.

  61. 61.

    Trinity

    @gbear: Everybody’s coming home for lunch these day. Last night there were wingnuts on my lawn. (still love that song!)

  63. 63.

    The Dangerman

    @catclub:

    2) response to Sandy was competent.

    I’m going to flip that a bit; I think Romney’s response to Sandy was shown to be incompetent. There are fundraisers for the Red Cross all over the place and it’s rather well known that the Red Cross REALLY doesn’t want canned tuna, etc.; I think Romney’s Ohio “Sandy” event has hurt him drastically (when the book comes out on his campaign, you can put money that the food drive was his idea and his advisers rolled over for him).

    Oh, also, Yutsano: My work/family world is interesting (massive understatement) and my NW travel plans are rather fluid; other than being in WA from 11/9 to 11/11, I have no idea what my travel plans are. In my world, that I even know I’ll be in WA on those few days is actually a bit of a surprise (indeed, even those dates aren’t 100% fixed, though it’s close).

  65. 65.

    Brachiator

    @Elizabelle:

    A third argument is that Mr. Romney has the momentum in the polls: whether or not he would win an election today, the argument goes, he is on a favorable trajectory that will allow him to win on Tuesday. This may be the worst of the arguments, in my view. It is contradicted by the evidence, simply put

    .Shorter: if you believe in momentum, Romney might win if the election wereto be held on November 15.

    @eemom:

    I haven’t cared much for a lot of Silver’s written work, but his column today is priceless—essentially boils down to “Look, assholes, this ain’t complicated. You wanna deny reality, be my guest.

    Silver’s analyses and explication of his results is impeccable. The rest is commentary.

    The bottom line, and the only thing that is important, is the competence of his methodology of analyzing polls. It is typical deflective bullshit that there is any faux controversy over this at all.

  69. 69.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @catclub: No that wasn’t my faith, it was that of whoever I heard discussing it on NPR.

    I do think that something that hit Manhattan instead of New Orleans could possibly generate some sort of turnaround on this austerity fad, the right-wingers aren’t going to let go of it of course but in recent years they’ve gotten supposed moderates convinced and that part can change, these things are cyclical to some degree.

    @mdblanche: Where is that quoted from?

  70. 70.

    Legalize

    @EconWatcher:
    That would be nice. I suspect the filibuster will have to be nuked to get ANY of Obama’s judges through in his second term, including supreme court nominees.

  71. 71.

    trollhattan

    @catclub:
    Goofy numbers. AZ senate race has been off my radar completely, but if there’s any chance of booting Flake into retirement it’s worth watching. Maybe Jan Brewer can stump for him.

  73. 73.

    pseudonymous in nc

    @Downpuppy: That has the feel of an environment where the demographics combine with methodology to produce very different samples.

    According to TPM, the last presidential poll in AZ was October 21 (Ras: R+8) so there’s not much there to go on.

  75. 75.

    Bulworth

    While I’m far from confident, The Washington Moonie Times of our nation’s capital has a blaring headline declaring the race a “dead heat”. I hadn’t realized the conservative intelligencia was that worried. You know things are bad when they say “dead heat”.

  76. 76.

    ThatLeftTurnInABQ

    @Villago Delenda Est:

    Reason #54,837 why Villago delenda est.

    Reasons why Villago delenda est has become a new form of infinity. The only question remaining open is where does it rank compared with the different ancien regime forms of infinity like the count of the set of natural numbers, etc.

  80. 80.

    catclub

    @pseudonymous in nc: “presidential poll in AZ was October 21 (Ras: R+8) so there’s not much there to go on.”

    Gosh, given that all the Flake up by 6 polls were Rasmussen, I find Ras’s R+8 positively encouraging.

  81. 81.

    Roger Moore

    @catclub:

    I so wish a popular president would run for VP.

    I don’t think that would be legal. The 12th Amendment says that the qualifications for Vice President are identical to those for President, so somebody who has already served two terms as President should be ineligible to run for VP. Wikipedia says there’s some dispute about this, but I think in practice that no political party would want to test the issue in court during an election.

  82. 82.

    EconWatcher

    If the current Indiana polling is accurate, the Tea Party is going to get a nice, sharp stick in the eye. They had a completely safe seat and reliable conservative vote with Lugar. They bounced him for no other reason than he was reasonably polite to Obama, in keeping with his duly elected office. And now they’ll pay.

  83. 83.

    Paul

    @Schlemizel:

    BIL posted some piece of dog shit on FB supposed to be a letter he received from BCBS saying how insurance rates are going to skyrocket because of AHA. It looks all very official but it smelled bad. Went to Snoopes . . . do I even need to finish this sentence? Pure 100% bullshit. I posted “ITS A GOD DAMNED LIE” and the snoopes link.

    You may also want to ask your BIL where the heck he has been over the last 20 years. Insurance rates have gone up big time each year. On top of that deductibles have also gone up over the last 20 years. Why was your BIL OK with that?

    Hell, the whole point behind ACA was that our economy couldn’t handle the huge cost we have had to endure.

  85. 85.

    Elizabelle

    @Bill E Pilgrim:

    I’ll take it.

    Hurricane stimulus. Heck of a way to get one, but if it stimulates the economy and wakes the powers that be up about global warming preparation, okay. (I guess we will all know more about the Dutch and their foresight within the next few weeks. Or maybe not.)

    Confidence fairies must observe gravity too.

  87. 87.

    EconWatcher

    What does it say about the modern Republican Party, when they’re probably going to lose not one but two Senate seats they should easily have won, in both cases because their candidates made inappropriate comments about rape?

    I mean, think about that for a minute. WTF?

  88. 88.

    schrodinger's cat

    @Elizabelle: It doesn’t have gravity, it obeys gravity, so its going down, down, down. BTW you know who has gravity? Tunch, for he can distort the space time continuum due to his sheer size.

  89. 89.

    Mike Lamb

    @Bill E Pilgrim: I’m not sure where I read it, but statistics say that major disasters don’t have stimulative effects in this fasion and economies almost always take a hit from major disasters.

  90. 90.

    LanceThruster

    Rmoney’s latest campaign appeal…

    Homer: [melancholy] My campaign is a disaster, Moe. [angry] I hate the public so much! [melancholy] If only they’d elect me. [angry] I’d make ’em pay! [melancholy] Aw, Moe, how do I make ’em like me?
    Moe: Eh, gee, you’re kind of all over the place, Homer, you need to focus
    here. You gotta…think hard, and come up with a slogan that appeals to all the lazy slobs out there.
    Homer: [moans] Can’t someone else do it?
    Moe: “Can’t someone else do it?”, that’s perfect!

  92. 92.

    Humanities Grad

    @Chyron HR:

    Damn, Romney’s expanding the map so much he’s even inventing new states.

    Here I thought his campaign wasn’t that smart. Turns out I’ve been underestimating them all along.

  94. 94.

    Michael

    This song seems like a good choice for a DougJ election headline. Some possibilities:

    It was one of those great nights
    It was in Ohio
    **
    It feels like I got so old last night, In Ohio
    **
    She said yeah Virginia, but now it’s Ohio
    **
    Some day I’ll end up in Ohio

  98. 98.

    Downpuppy

    @pseudonymous in nc: Way back in the day, I worked for a firm that bought time for ad campaigns on local TV around the country. Phoenix was the one market in the country where the rates never settled down.

    Irrelevant? Most likely.

    It sure looks like the pollers are telling their clients what they want to hear.

  101. 101.

    danimal

    @The Dangerman: In honor of our President’s Romnesia Foxworthy riff:

    You might be a Republican if….

    …you think BENGHAZEEEEEE should disqualify Obama because 4 Americans died there but hold Bush unaccountable for 9/11.

  102. 102.

    piratedan

    @Downpuppy: seems like it comes down to this…. are Latino and Native American voters truly engaged and going to show up to the polls are not?

    If the answer is yes and the GOTV machine is humming smnoothly, Flake is toast and Obama actually has a chance to take the state….

    I can tell you this, Ras doesn’t do polling in Spanish and they sure as hell don’t call anyone on the Rez. Lord knows I’ve been through enough of their surveys. Latinos care about the Dream Act and care about meaningful immigration reform, Natives are looking for anyone to give them a hand outside of having a casino group looking to put up a building. Unemployment is especially tough out there, anything regarding clean energy, education, clean tech would be welcomed wholesale. I sure as hell don’t think that the R’s even know the differences between the tribes only that there is land to be exploited.

  104. 104.

    The Moar You Know

    Put on my hip waders, the ones I use for walking in ponds of shit, and took a hike over to see what the RedState Trike Force was up to.

    They’re about a day and a half, maybe less, from passing out the KoolAid and cyanide. The despair is palpably bubbling right below the surface. And, in the case of Erickson’s cri de coeur “I just want this to be over” this morning, right out in the open.

  107. 107.

    feebog

    I know most of the Senate forcasts see little or no change in the final numbers, but I’m beginning to wonder if the Dems might not pull off a semi-miracle here. Thanks to the Tea Party, it looks like McCaskill, who was road kill in August is going to retain her seat. It also looks like Tester will hold on in Montana and we may even retain the seat in North Dakota. If that happens we could be looking at the following:

    Baldwin and Kaine hang on to Dem seats in VA and WI. Kerrey narrowly loses in NB, but that is offset by wins in MA and ME, and Indiana. That’s a gain of two. Add NV and AZ to the mix, could be a gain of three or even four.

  109. 109.

    chopper

    @Chyron HR:

    SHOCK POLL!

    obambi is only ahead by 20 points in hawaii! does this mean ALOHA for obummer?

    only 4 days til PRESIDENT-ELECT WILLARD!

  111. 111.

    NonyNony

    @Brachiator:

    Shorter: if you believe in momentum, Romney might win if the election wereto be held on November 15.

    Even Better – it’s more like “if you believe in momentum, Romney not only won’t win the election next week, he wouldn’t win it if it were held in December”.

    Actual, non-shorter Silver:

    If you evaluate the polls in this way, there is not much evidence of “momentum” toward Mr. Romney. Instead, the case that the polls have moved slightly toward Mr. Obama is stronger.

  112. 112.

    Roger Moore

    @MikeJ:
    But a black hole isn’t infinitely dense, at least if you treat the entire contents within the event horizon as being part of the black hole. In that case, they have a well-defined mass and size and hence a finite but very high density.

  114. 114.

    Liberty60

    How come everyone is venting their wrath on Nate Silver, but nobody is going after the Intrade guys, who have about the same odds?

    Are they big and burly?

  115. 115.

    bemused

    I had a panic this afternoon when I found out my elderly fil’s hip replacement surgery was moved up 4 days to next Tues….election day. The hospital is 2 hours away and our polling place hours are 10 to 8 with no guarantee if we’d get back in time to vote. It’s too late to get an absentee ballot in MN. After a flurry of phone calls, I found out we can vote in-person absentee at our nearest auditor office which is only a half hour away today, tomorrow and Mon. Whew. I am so grateful for our decent voting system here (for now, who knows if MN idiots will go heavy for Voter ID amendment) and our great SOS Mark Ritchie.

  116. 116.

    LAC

    @LAC: TV. I don’t own an RV and if I did, Chris Cilliza would be hanging off it holding on for dear life. :)

    Chopper: Cilliza would put Hawaii in his tossup pile, along with California and NY. After all, why not?

  120. 120.

    Surreal American

    @chopper:

    obambi is only ahead by 20 points in hawaii! does this mean ALOHA for obummer?

    I call fake Verily-An-Ass. No way he’s that clever.

  122. 122.

    mdblanche

    @EconWatcher: Ford served enough of Nixon’s term to count as a one term President for 22nd Amendment purposes, but since he was still eligible for another that wouldn’t have been an issue. If he had served and Reagan had left office early, he would even have been eligible for re-election if he served less than two years of Reagan’s term.

  123. 123.

    zzyzx

    @rageahol:

    CvB fun fact: Did you know that if you play Five Sticks backwards, it turns out that it’s Ambiguity Song reversed. I did that at my college radio station that had it on vinyl.

  124. 124.

    The Moar You Know

    Speaking of which, where’s my Taco platter today? One too many trips under the banhammer?

    @trollhattan: Looks like he just got another one, he was comment #114, I refreshed and he is gone.

    Really, what are you going to do this close to the election anyway? It’s all over but the shouting and it’s painfully obvious to all that Obama wins it, and not even by a ratfuckable margin. The end.

  125. 125.

    Joel

    @feebog: Nate SIlver hasn’t updated his senate map in ages. If you look at Indiana (Nate Silver rates it 75% for Mourdock), the only polls in the past few weeks that show Mourdock leading are his house pollster’s releases. And thats in a field of polls that show him down anywhere up to 11 points.

    By the way, Rasmussen has shifted +8 points in favor of Donnelly in the last month.

    Here’s the current spread of what were thought to be contestable races, using Pollster’s model (since Silver is way behind and Wang doesn’t have individual senate forecasts):

    FL +7.8
    MO +7.5
    OH +5.7
    CT +5.6
    MA +4.2
    IN +3.5
    MT +1.9
    VA +1.4
    WI +1.0
    ND +0.3
    AZ -1.2

    If you take the splits at zero, that puts the Democrats at 55 seats (King caucusing). That’s Sam Wang’s mode, which is obviously not a coincidence, since he’s using the same data.

  127. 127.

    Bill E Pilgrim

    @Mike Lamb: Okay so now I’ve Googled up a mess of articles about the subject, and there are certainly a lot of people of that opinion, but I’m not so sure. Several of them pointed toward this article, which is first of all in Forbes which makes me suspect, as an argument about why these things aren’t stimulative. Except that he’s actually saying that Sandy will boost the economy, but even though spending on recovery creates economic growth, the disaster “destroyed wealth” also so it’s all an illusion.
    Er, yes and so what?

    En route I was led to the broken windows fallacy:

    Theorists of the Austrian School frequently cite this fallacy and claim that it is a common element of popular thinking (e.g., the “Cash for Clunkers” program,[5] etc.).

    I’ll read more but so far, I’m less than convinced.

  128. 128.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us? (formerly MarkJ)

    You went deep into the Camper Van Beethoven vault for the title of this post. Well done.

  129. 129.

    What Have The Romans Ever Done for Us? (formerly MarkJ)

    Also, should get a blog post title out of “A History of Utah” before Mitt Romney’s candidacy is history. Too. Speaking of Camper Van Beethoven.

  130. 130.

    shortstop

    @LAC: Here you be!

    @Roger Moore: Am certain I’ll be accused of sycophancy toward the host, but I do find Cranky Old Cole to be adorable, actually. His particular brand of crankiness is one of this joint’s main attractions for me. I know; I need help.

  131. 131.

    shortstop

    Lawsy, I’ve hit the moderlode. A much-loved vendor just sent me a “thanks for your business” package of chocolate donkeys and elephants. How lucky can one girl be?!

  132. 132.

    muddy

    Cranky Blog Cole is a cranky old soul
    And a cranky old soul is he.
    He called for some posts
    And not for some trolls
    And called for his animals three.

  134. 134.

    Mike in NC

    Mittbot has TV ads here in Tampa using Pat Boone to scare the old folks with blatant
    Iies about Obama Medicare cuts. Does anybody under the age of 75 even know who that clown is?Also, too, hilarious radio spots that actually use Willard’s moronic charge about “the Navy is smaller than it was in 1916”.

  142. 142.

    Bruce S

    Nate Silver is dependent on math. Makes him an automatic enemy of GOP. And, of course, know-nothing pundits whose bread and butter is bullshit.

  143. 143.

    Bruce S

    Nate Silver is dependent on math. Makes him an automatic enemy of GOP. And, of course, know-nothing pundits whose bread and butter is bullshit.

Comments are closed.