(Ben Sargent via GoComics.com)
Wise words, as always, from Mr. Charles P. Pierce at Esquire:
In an election year, the elite American political correspondent lives in a wilderness of the mind made up only of turning points. Tonight’s primary. The next primary. Today’s poll. The next poll. The convention, when every candidate has to give The Speech of His/Her Life. Tonight’s debate. The next debate. The spin function of the modern American political party is designed solely to lead the elite American political correspondent deeper and deeper into this wilderness until all the turning points are strange, concocted shadows that make the wary traveller jump, like broken trees in the forest at night that look like witch’s fingers against the rising moon. Generally, the conservative spin machine is better at doing this. Its woods are darker and deeper, and its concocted shadows are generally more interesting, which is why they frighten the correspondent more profoundly, and generally get a longer run in the mainstream media.
The real cognitive dissonance comes when an actual, real-world turning point occurs — a hurricane, say, ravages the nation’s major population center, obliterating the distinction between the president’s being president and the president’s being a candidate to the point where one of the president’s most implacable opponents is hugging him out on the tarmac. Confronted by this obvious change in the prevailing dynamic of the campaign, and the way in which the actual turning point shines a light on all the phantom turning points, revealing the scary monsters in the wood to be trees and rocks and lines of shivery undergrowth, the elite political correspondent gets briefly disoriented and wonders how things could look so strange in the light of a new day….
I seen on althouse yesterday, she and they were all…….. this is great news for John McCain!!!!!
was pretty funny.
Reality isn’t a pundit or political reporters strong suit.
dick morris now sees “Sudden Danger Signs In Polling”.
Im Denver we’re very excited. Going to see the President at a rally Sunday night. Special guest Dave Matthews!
Sure, in a swing state it’s been non-stop ads til you want to scream, but it has it’s perks, too!
A friend of mine picked up some “Vinegar Valentines” (at an estate sale today)from the 20s/30s. This one reads pretty contemporarily:
America still needs No-Drama Obama.
The cartoon has it. We’re trying to save the deniers’ idiotic asses, too.
“I got this.”
Is Paul Ryan still running for Vice President? Has there been a less visible running mate in recent memory. A week or so ago at work I overheard some of my co-workers talking about the election and it seriously took them all a minute or so to remember his name.
Yeah and then they’ll knife us in the back and laugh as the whole ship goes down….
Nihilism and narcissism to the MAX….
What you said.
I’m surprised the Village isn’t trying to discredit the messenger who sent Sandy. It’s what they usually do but doubt the word of God, never. Wait ,hurricanes start in western Africa where Muslims live!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Is Dkos down? Or is it just my stupid computer?
You guys, you GUYS, why has no one thought about what if THIS happens, oh my god:
What IF BOTH Obama and Romney get MORE than 270 electoral votes?!?!?
Why has no one considered this?!?
Well, I looked it up in a Constitution, and apparently in that eventuality, the election is decided by the PREVIOUS vice-president! Dick Cheney!!!?!?
OH MY FUCKING GOD!!!???!!! We could get the third term of…
…George W. Bush.
According to twitter it is down.
@poco: It’s down. Their NY server is still having fits and starts.
Gin & Tonic
@poco: Appears nonresponsive. You can always use http://www.downforeveryoneorjustme.com/ to check.
@poco: Think it’s down – and it’s been down for several hours now….
@Mark S.: No Ryan?
Must be a tell –
Ryan knows they won’t win, so does not want to be the Sarah of 2012
I have a hard time understanding why Romney didn’t go ‘moderate’ earlier. Picking Ryan shored up the right wing base that was already solid.
Been timing out to connect for 2 and 1/2 hours or so now.
All I know is that all the Obama supporters at work are happily working away at making sure that Obama and all the other Dems pull it out, whether by giving money until it hurts or putting in long GOTV hours.
The wingnuts are being very quiet and subdued. And the most I can see them doing is putting out lawn signs. Lawn signs are what they think will do it for them, I guess.
I guess they forgot to ask for his birth certificate.
@Shakespeare: Well, there was a notable explosion in the Electoral breeding population this past spring…
I haven’t been able to get into GOS either. They’ve had server problems a few times since the storm, so I guess that might be the problem again.
Ahhh! Thanks to all who responded and made sure that I wouldn’t throw this POS outta the window.
I’m just going to say this once, ppl. No. The thread is unsullied. I have my rolled up newspaper and I am a human and dog mom. NO.
@jibeaux: Spoil sport.
I’m sure other people have noted the latest Nate Silver numbers today, but this is definitely getting into stats porn territory. Romney is back under 20% at 18.9%, and the projected electoral vote totals are now up to 303 to 235. I would LOVE to see Obama break 300 on Tuesday.
I go to that site several times a day just to brighten my mood.
@MobiusKlein: Except their base wasn’t really solid. Oh, they’d never vote for Obama, but they weren’t too fired up about getting off their asses and voting for Mitt, either. They needed more red meat.
I saw Orca. It was pretty lame, though seeing future Republican Bo Derek get her leg chewed off by Orca was entertaining.
Great snippet from Pierce. Well written.
I’ve been 110% Obot since day -400 or so, so no surprise to me at all that President Obama has led a smooth and competent relief effort after a devastating storm. I just marvel at the timing, and the many nails it puts in so many Republican coffins, I hope.
@Randy P: Sam Wang at PEC makes me even happier. Right now he has Obama at 319 EV with a re-elect probability of 97-99.6%
sam wang will dazzle it. 319 baybee.
@Mnemosyne: I saw a NatGeo or something special on a pod of killer whales taking on a great white shark. Awesome sauce. Orcas are the most capable predators in the ocean debate/discuss.
my boyfriend got one of those things in the mail that gave him his voting “report card”.
He thought it was kinda creepy.
But, I notice that he finally went down to the town hall today, and voted like I been asking him to do for the past month or so……
Perhaps those things are effective. And that why Althouse keep having conniptions about it every other day…..
So I’m not allowed to ask the troll if True the Vote is using Spandau Ballet for their theme song?
C’mon, I dare you to name another song called “True.”
@Randy P: It’s a pretty teeny nudge of 0.2% and I’m not getting the same thrill I was yesterday from the serial plunges, but it’s at least in the correct direction.
IIRC the last time it was below 20% was before debate the first, the Willarding.
Pierce nails it! Competency and patience and determination is under-rated in the Village until a major event shines a brilliant light on the obfuscation and mendacity of the Galtians. We are only ruggedly individual when the world around us allows us to pretend we are. When the shit hits the fan, we want Mommy. I know I do, and I bet you do too!
If all they have is threats of cheating, they got nothin’.
I sure hope our pet troll is here Tuesday night. I’ll toast him with a glass of the bubbly I squirrelled away in the wine cooler this evening.
I posted the night Sandy hit that this would push Obama over the top. I knew FEMA was on top of this and that their response would be well coordinated and strong. I also suspected that the response from this disaster would inevitably be compared to the FEMA response under “heckuva a Job Brownie” and C+ Augustus. Chris Christie was the icing on the cake.
Compare that with rMoney’s pathetic “cangoods to nowhere” Rally, and well, talk about bring nail clippers to a gun fight. I have a running commentary with a RWN friend from Colorado Springs tonight. I posted Sam Wang’s latest charts and he is frothing at the mouth pissed. Glad this will be over in a few days, I have a very busy November lined up and I need to get to it.
GOTV tomorrow afternoon and Sunday, and that is it for me. I would normally be working the polls on Tuesday, but I have a mandatory training session in the am. Actually, it will be nice to watch the returns and post here and there as the evening unwraps.
Methinks you’ll get a better read referencing Lily von Schtupp: “It’s twue, it’s twue!”
@redshirt: My sister was bitten by a moose.
@redshirt: I saw them on Blue Planet, kidnapped a baby whale from its mother, didn’t let it up to breathe, and then they only ate the tongue. Assholes.
Because I don’t want to get whapped, what it is we’re not supposed to do?
I’m pretty sure that our trollish friend has never heard a phrase like that in his life. Assuming he’s even been in a situation that could lead to it.
@MikeJ: A moose in the ocean? Ocean discussion/debate only.
Commie alert: Silver is booked on Maddow tonight. Proof…of something!
And a big FYWP.
Fuck it. I got a bottle of pinot noir, some great pizza, and BRUUUUUUUUUUCE! on my teevee. It’s all good.
I have the telethon on, and I think someone needs to donate tshirts that fit for poor Sting. He always has some baby tee pulled up into his armpits. You’d think he could afford better.
My snark on this topic is John’s fault, he started it on twitter.
@geg6: I got me three beers and a fist full of downs, and I’m gonna get wrecked, so…
Probably right, but it’s not impossible he has a GIF loop of the campfire farting scene. “Hardy-har, dat’s funneh!”
@feebog: whatever fuck happened to all those cans ? did the bot send them anywhere or were they trashed after the photo-op?
@Geoduck: So far, they are talking around it, which I will allow for now. My patience is not, however, UNLIMITED.
Hmmm. I wonder if John has lined up some backup unionized hamsters for the comment overload . . .
@Mnemosyne: Taylor Swift doesn’t have one yet? I bet that’s coming.
Probably not make any kind of reference to UNLIMITED CORPORATE POLL WATCHERS IN BOLDFACE AND ALL CAPS.
@redshirt: Every spring I contemplate making a silk screen of an Orca wearing white earbuds with the legend “J-pod” beneath it.
(J is one our resident Orca pods. If you’d like to be able to ID an ORca you see in Puget sound, match the markings against this chart.)
I’m in the opposite position – I’ll be working the polls for the first time on election day. Although I fully expect BJ to be in FYWP mode that night, so no big loss, I suppose.
It’s official: I hate TBogg.
You’ll see. Oh nurse, brain bleach, stat!
Oh I know! And that’s why is is so great that PBO has relentlessly pounded the reality of Global Warming over the past four years, browbeating the congress, the public, and the press into a full on, Manhattan-style response which is already reaping rewards against what were once the implacable, evil forces of climate denialism and the fossil fuels lobbies.
His fearless leadership against corporate money and his ceaseless courage is all paying off now…oh, wait…
Ring True by Let’s Active?
True Believer by Aimee Mann?
True to Life by Roxy Music?
True Love by X?
Sorry, the only “True” by itself I’ve got is Spandau Ballet
So. CNN was on my teevee. (It was an accident! I didn’t do it!) And there’s Anderson Cooper with the two correspondents and it’s all ‘it’s a tie! A tie! A tie!’ Then Cooper asked the R correspondent if he had an SEKRIT INSIDERZ INFO off the record saying that Romney was behind in Ohio. (Cooper indicated that the ‘steady 2 point lead’ for Obama was ‘within the margin of error’. Indicating he was confused as to the difference between one poll and a bunch of polls.
So that’s your CNN: if Romney isn’t ahead, it’s a tie, until otherwise noted. Or SEKRIT INSIDERZ INFORMATION appears as if from the blue.
And Anderson Cooper was the one beltway type I saw on Jeopardy who appeared to have a functioning brain. (As in: might not do too bad at real Jeopardy.)
So the weekend’s spin is that it’s a tie until Tuesday.
[‘Once again, someone is going to be very surprised and I know who it is.’]
Remember: if the result is a touchdown the election is over. If the result is a field goal, the other candidate will have one possession.
My glob Dick Morris is a colossal idiot. Wasn’t he literally just saying Romney was in for an election blow out like, 2 days ago? Now all of a sudden Romney is going down.
Why on earth anyone listens to this moron is beyond me.
hello from Saigon! just got in last night and my hosts took out to eat… at pizza hut. today is all about museums and networking – apparently we’ve all been invited to wedding today by the grooms father who is a heritage minister.
Bill E Pilgrim
is how I read your post at first glance, and I kind of like it that way also.
Personally, I’d let the “cangoods to nowhere” line go – along with the whole thing: yes, we all KNOW (those of us who use our brains, and/or can search the Internet) that donations-in-kind are more-or-less useless/more trouble than they’re worth in big natural disasters like hurricanes, but the last thing one should want to do is to annoy people by pissing on their charitable impulses – misguided as they might be. I’m thinking that when the history of the 2012 election is recorded, Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan (aka the Empty Suit and the Invisible Man) will be chalked up as probably the last casualties of Hurricane Sandy, anyway.
In an election that should be “It’s the economy, stupid”, the Right is beating the shit out of Benghazi. It must poll really well in their focus groups, but I don’t get it.
Just checked unskewed.com. I thought it would be next cycle before they started making up their own polls so that even when you throw out the outliers they’d have something to point to. Apparently they’ve been doing it this time. Something calling itself “q starnews (a proud member of the vast right wing conspiracy!)” has Romney up 5. Oh noez!
I have so very many pretty Ladybugs in my house. Evolution has well designed/marketed them.
FYI, if we have to wait til the polls close in CA on Tuesday I might just have drunk myself to death by then. Just in case anyone is wondering why I am not posting on Wednesday.
I have a feeling (hope?) that the dirty little secret of this election is that a lot of the GOP die-hards aren’t going to show up. Team Romney has been spending way too much time in GOP areas, and Benghazi only plays well with their base.
The right must be amazingly frustrated that they cannot get more traction out of the Benghazi story. It just isn’t getting traction out of the right wing echo chamber.
I listen to Tell Me More on NPR, and there is some Republican Consultant, I think her name is Mary Kay Carey, who brings up Benghazi all the time and how Gee, the story keeps changing and what is Obama hiding? It’s just an amazingly inept attempt by the right to try and make this a scandal, but there just isn’t anything there and they just won’t admit that little factoid.
Axelrod needs sleep. I feel for him.
@jibeaux: But Moooooooom!!
(This, incidentally, never worked on my mother.)
According to Fox News (fair warning, this is Hannity content), the response from FEMA has been an abject failure that can’t even pass out a bottle of water. I think this is the first Four Schiavo’s I’ve given out for brain-deadedness.
I’ve been thinking this. The official story a month from now will be that Romney had it in the bag until Obama lucked into having that hurricane. And they will completely ignore that Silver et al haven’t had Romney ahead ever.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Hal: Well operating on the assumption that it’s entirely a money-making scam with these guys, pulling it all back just before the election would be sort of required as an explanation of why it all went so against your predictions. Which you caught at the last moment of course.
Telling them what they want to hear as the first part of the scam (because who’s going to pay you millions to tell them that Romney is going to lose?), and then falling in line with reality at the last moment to retain some deniability. Lots of blaming it on Sandy next, I bet.
He learned a valuable lesson from those toe-sucking hookers: There’s always good money in telling the client exactly what he wants to hear, no matter how outlandish or untrue.
Just landed in Ohio. Oh yeah.
Right, huh? The big surge after the first debate took Obama from 85% likely to win to 70% or so.
Go get ’em!
@MikeJ: Yep. You just pegged one of the post election narratives. The others will be: ACORN! or some variation thereof.
Wait, what? Did you jump in the way-back machine and travel to 1976?
They’ve given up on any chance of Romney winning, and are on to the next chapter of their Clinton-era handbook: Find a reason to scream IMPEACH!, no matter how clearly the rivets show. If they “examine” the Benghazi disaster closely enough, it gums up the actual work of government during President Obama’s second term, and the GOP is convinced Obama has some kind of lying-about-blow-jobs nothingburger they can gin up into a show trial.
Bill E Pilgrim
@Anne Laurie: Funny image. “You’re such a tall, handsome, virile…. (bursts out laughing) …okay wait no, wait, I can do this…”
There was an article in one of the Paris dailies with a quote from a woman who had worked one of the orgy-parties that DSK attended, and she was asked if it was true as he claimed, that it was all just consensual among adults. Her response, roughly translated was “Huh? Why would I do that? He’s old, fat, and gross.”
So… Bubblegum, Marceline, or Flame?
The other day, I read or heard that Obama’s probability of winning was about the same as a NFL team with a three-point lead and three minutes to go’s probability of winning.
Does Mitt Romney remind you of Eli Manning, even a little bit?
re: is dailykos down
it seems so – my stupid computer times out also.
Fat = gross in France.
@burnspbesq: I’m not sure I ever left, actually…
@Bill E Pilgrim: I replied to this with a weak joke about how the last 2 words in the description are the same in France and then I was in moderation. I used the same 2 words you did. I did employ an equals sign. Jeezum.
Oh, I agree; I could see impeachment over Benghazi or PWB. I posted this morning it’s nearly a sure thing.
The problem for the Right is this has no legs (as opposed to Monica) and they can waste the time impeaching, but it will be seen as what it is – a waste of time.
I’ve mentioned before that electoral map from unskewed is comedy gold. Romney basically wins all but ten states, including several where he is now way behind (thanks for coming to your senses Wisconsin!), or always has been, like PA, where they have Romney winning, and Oregon, which Romney has no chance of winning at all.
I realize that right wingers are malleable, but damn, anyone looking at that map should know it’s bullshit, even if you think Romney is going to win.
@amk: Yes, where are those cans and other goods? You’d think they would have a photo op of the delivery with people thanking them for the stuff.
Bill E Pilgrim
@muddy: @muddy: Good point. But they don’t in English of course :)
I actually can’t remember how it was worded in French exactly, but “fat”, “disgusting” and “old” were all involved.
I’m sorta proud that my state (Washington) is evidently seen as such a Commie hotbed that even these guys don’t try to claim that Romney’s going to win it.
In case anyone is wondering, “Project Orca” is apparently an app that Republican poll-watchers can use to log when their supporters vote, so they can contact the ones who haven’t. You know, the same thing poll-watchers have done for decades, but a little faster and requiring a little less labor, since they don’t have to have anyone pick up the checked-off lists.
I don’t know about you, but I’m quaking in my boots. /snark
@Hal: I’m beginning to think the base has what the guy in Memento had. Their leaders can contradict today what they said yesterday. And they can do this every day. And the base never seems to realize that their leader is making no damn sense at all.
@Bill E Pilgrim: I get the impression he was disgusting before he was fat and old.
There is a deep-seeded frustration on the right that a Democrat is consistently seen as stronger on national security issues than a Republican. They simply can’t stand it, and twist themselves into all sorts of conflicting logical contortions to both rationalize it and end it.
Bill E Pilgrim
@muddy: Oh sure to us, but he was a real ladykiller in his day. His wife thought she had a real prize, for instance. Until just recently of course.
West of the Rockies (formerly Frank W.)
@Hal: I sort of stopped listening to Wait, Wait Don’t Tell Me when there was some wingnut (Goldberg?) who kept trying to appear comically important. Is it safe to listen now?
@The Dangerman: Ah, good fiscal conservatives. Throwing away money defending DOMA and throwing away money on a snipe hunt.
@PsiFighter37: Go find JenJen. She’s a mixologist (but in Cincy) and she’d keep a good eyeball on your liver. Plus she haz cutest puppeh on the planet! EARZ!!
@Geoduck: Dude, we’re practically Canada. We almost had a single-payer plan in the 1990s until Clinton quashed that idea. I’m amazed the Greens don’t gain more ground here honestly. Of course Presidential vanity runs don’t help.
I’m still wondering how they trained the whales to press the right button on the iPhones.
ETA: I didn’t mean to make a fat joke, but if the shoe fits …
@Mnemosyne: Orcas are not really fat. They’re more sleek and rocket-like. And so fucking cool to watch in the wild!
@burnspbesq: my mouth watered
And, technically, they’re not whales (they’re actually in the dolphin family, not the whale family). I do like ’em, though the death of that trainer at Sea World a few years ago made me a little more wary of them.
LSP all the way, though Marceline would be cool to hang out with. I think PB is a closet psycho, and I’m no fan of burns, so no Flame Princess either.
@Hal: That poll is all the “evidence” repubs need to show MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD. They’ll see that the evil pinko-commie nate silvers map was accurate and KNOW, absolutely KNOW that the only reason that happened was massive voter fraud
@MobiusKlein: I have a hard time understanding why Romney didn’t go ‘moderate’ earlier. Picking Ryan shored up the right wing base that was already solid.
Maybe the idea was to put Wisconsin in play. If so, he made an obvious mistake – the people of Wisconsin know Ryan.