Via MichaelJ at LGF — lyrics at the link. Hat tip, commentor Another Halocene Human.
If you want to start planning your Tuesday evening celebrations, commentor PeakVT has a nice succinct post up on his blog laying out a timetable for state-by-state returns. You should read the whole thing, but here’s a taste:
… On election night, the first state to watch for will be Virginia, where polls close at 7PM EST. If Obama takes that state, he’ll almost certainly have won the election (given the near-certainty of Obama winning the 265 EVS in the higher confidence categories)…
And Professor Krugman has his suspicions about “Karl Rove’s Mission Accomplished“:
… Remember how Rove and others were supposed to raise vast sums from billionaires and corporations, then totally saturate the country with GOP messaging, drowning out Obama’s message? Well, they certainly raised a lot of money, and ran a lot of ads. But in terms of actual number of ads the battle has been, if anything, an Obama advantage. And while we don’t know what will happen on Tuesday, state-level polls suggest both that Obama is a strong favorite and, much more surprising, that Democrats are overwhelmingly favored to hold the Senate in a year when the number of seats at risk was supposed to spell doom.
Some of this reflects the simple fact that money can’t help all that much when you have a lousy message. But it also looks as if the money was surprisingly badly spent. What happened?
Well, what if we’ve been misunderstanding Rove? We’ve been seeing him as a man dedicated to helping angry right-wing billionaires take over America. But maybe he’s best thought of instead as an entrepreneur in the business of selling his services to angry right-wing billionaires, who believe that he can help them take over America. It’s not the same thing.
And while Rove the crusader is looking — provisionally, of course, until the votes are in — like a failure, Rove the businessman has just had an amazing, banner year…
What’s on the agenda today? Anybody got more Frankenstorm Sandy stories to share?
A big game for Georgia against Ole Miss this afternoon but now I have to go out and see if I can find a friends dig that ran off last night.
Amazingly, as a Republican, the bigger the failure you are as a human being, the more successful you are.
Today is the last day of early voting in Florida, so I’m up and getting ready to go to the Coral Reef Library in Perrine to get in line. Wait times have been up to three hours, so I’m taking along a good book.
off to a traditional Vietnamese wedding in an hour – never met the couple but the researchers i am working with got invited en masse because the grooms dad is a big wig in heritage. looking forward to eating until i pop.
Don’t know how many New Englanders on this blog, but here’s a heads up. The Jones Act, which for years has protected NE ports from oil spills and general mayhem, has been suspended by HS, at the request of Texas extraction syndicates. You know no good disaster goes to waste.
Here’s the link from GOS diary…http://www.dailykos.com/story/2012/11/03/1154636/-Under-Cover-of-Sandy-serious-shenanigans-with-long-term-consequences-for-New-England
I argue politics with someone I met back in college. He’s also an LSU fan, whereas I grew up an hour from Tuscaloosa. I don’t think we’re going to be able to be civil to each other after the next three days.
Why in the devil did I agree to go do GOTV work this morning?? Dammit! I’m supposed to be sitting here ignoring that pile of wood that yet needs to be stacked.
Sorry. Did I just type that out loud?
@henqiguai: Better to give than receive dude
Especially when concerning matters wood
So are the Democratic senators going to do something about the cloture rules, or is it going to be business as usual?
I’ve lived overseas for a decade and haven’t really ever had to be forced to watch any of the cable news networks for anything more than a minute or two here and there when back in th states or traveling. But this morning I was stuck in a place where CNN was on and unavoidable. Had to endure 45 minutes of it, and holy crap has it become shit. I mean I a lady knew that from the reports of oths and little snippets here and there,Cnut god damned it was wretched watching wolf blitzer et al flail around about the horse race. It was so sad.
The international news I get reports better on the pres race than any of the US networks. They may not get or report well on the electoral college and focus a little too heavily on national polls, but they know where the state of he race is for the most part.
And to think CNN is considered one or the big boys. Egad!
Goan to vote, yo. The cute kid will serve as a distraction whilst I rig the voting machine and deliver Kansas to Nobama. Which is fair, since they certainly have operatives that will deliver Illinois and Massalottaletters to Romney…
The BBC in Britain pretty much called it for Obama this morning (well, more like ‘things look good for the President, small but steady lead, increasingly unlikely that Romney will pull it off’ according to the bulletin I was listening to).
Thanks for the authentic secret camera video of a traditional Kenyan tribal dance, disguised as a “Hoo-lah”, as if such a thing ever existed. Very funny.
The Weather Channel is owned by Bain Capital, NBC Universal, and one other partner.
RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist
I’m headed off to work. Gonna climb inside a laser and learn how to do optical alignments. Because I don’t get enough of that Monday thru Friday.
I’m feeling a little less nail-bitey about the election. The campaigns were ridiculous. It got extra stupid on both sides when there were no real world issues to discuss and they fell back on competing generic talking points and sniping at ‘gaffes’. Now that an actual emergency and a powerful government response has thrown the real differences between the President and his challenger into high relief things don’t look so bad.
Shopping for a new Christmas tree, and mattress, in that order. Early dinner at with friends, then home to watch LSU whup up on ‘Bama.
Republicans are all about grifting from other Republicans. That’s not even a surprise anymore. Seems to be the dominant culture of their entire party.
I’d say “go for it” except that they want to take money away from the 99% to pipe to the grifters via the 1%. Waste your own damn money, not mine.
Don’t get cocky, folks. Pour it on and run up the score.
Springtime for Romney.
I will be spending election day in a hospital waiting room with other family while our elderly patriarch has a hip replacement. One couple is Republican, the rest of us Dems, and I hope we can do without Fox on the tv. If that happens, I will insist we watch NO news.
RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist
TV-BE-GONE is your secret weapon.
@bemused: Whats so special about news from The Big Easy?
Thank God or Lucky Stars or maybe just Nate Silver’s parents, because his 538 site has kept me as close to sane as I can get. The rest of the media keeps promoting the election as a neck & neck horse race destined for a photo finish, possibly to be followed by a Steward’s Review (aka, a Supreme Court/Red Queen type ruling). While nothing is official until the votes are tabulated and certified Silver’s trackings & analysis have made me solidly optimistic about how this election will turn out.
I have long suspected that a lot of this fund raising went to “expenses.” Isn’t that how Komen operated?
New Obama Truth Team’s brutally honest and effective ad calling out the repeated mittbot lies about Jeep
I’ve been thinking these last two weeks with the Repubs going into Penn, Minn and Mich have been all about the consultants using up Mitten’ campaign money up. There was some report out recently saying Mittman’s spent 125 million bucks on consultants and that was not counting the money they get from the media buys. I remember Kos talking about the incredible amount of money Dem consultants made in 04. He was at Trippi’s apparently very nice house near Chesapeake Bay implying that Trippi had ripped off Dean during the campaign(but also that all the consultants did that.)
Heading to the OFA office in Cleveland at Euclid Avenue to begin my GOTV.
From what I’ve seen so far in Ohio, we’re gonna win! Everyone I met last night was so fired up.
@RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist:
I get up on a chair and turn off tvs in the hospital. Sometimes I do it while other people are looking, after I ask their permission.
Kate in TX
Flew into Cleveland yesterday for 4 days of GOTV and things are looking great here..the OFA office on Lee and Harvard is crazy busy and filled with great, dedicated folks. Canvassing, door knocking GOTV starts this morning; I’m working out of the staging location on Buckeye. We are going to win this thing! Go Ohio!
It was nice to wake up and find out that a new NBC poll shows the President up 6 in Ohio. Wahoo. It’s not over til it’s over but I’d rather be an Obama supporter at this point in time.
Today is attack the leaves day and clean up some outdoor furniture.
@RossInDetroit, Rational Subjectivist:
Heh, too bad we didn’t know the surgery was going to be rescheduled for election day or that would have been great fun.
There must be no news/election watching for this family in that waiting room. Matriarch would be most displeased with any election talk and probably would grab us by the ears and take us all to the woodshed.
I like how the Obama ads got away from the traditional gloom-and-doom music. It suggests Mitt is a bumbler and I suspect/hope it gives people an emotional lift.
Wait–is he running for the Senate somewhere?
sam wang at pec is giving away the
houseelection to that kenyan muslin.
As of November 3, 8:03AM EDT:
Obama: 323 (up from 319 y’day)
Meta-margin: Obama +3.02%
Probability of Obama re-election: Random Drift 98.1% (up from 97%), Bayesian Prediction 99.8%
“The Producers.” Saw what you did there.
Totally unrelated to anything except the Hawiian title of the top video and that old song from der Bingle and the Andrews Sisters:
war onChristmas season already. The “seasonal” channel of the music choice on our TV service started Holiday music yesterday.
I am attempting to watch Uppers. I made it through the first segment without changing the channel.
Someone on a thread last night mentioned Nate Silver’s appearance on the Rachel Maddow Show.
Here’s link to the show. Silver appears in the last quarter of the the “Checkable facts expose end of campaign bluster” segment.
However, for me, the highlight is about three minutes in. 2008 footage of McCain surrogate Mitt Romney predicting GOP wins in Ohio, Virginia, Pennsylvania, New Hampshire, Florida, New Mexico and Nevada. They’ve got the internal polling.
And then cue the map of 2008 results. Obama took every single one.
Blue. Blue. Blue. Blue. Blue. Blue. Blue.
good luck with the operation. I spent a fair amount of time in hospitals this summer and I always asked if I could turn the volume down or change the channel. They always said yes. :)
@Kate in TX:
So proud of you, and DennisG, and Kay, and psifighter. And everybody out there on the ground and on the phones in the Buckeye State. Thank you for helping to keep Ohio blue.
And make those Republicans blue on November 7th!
@Mustang Bobby: The South Dade Regional wait was only an hour last week when I voted. Check it out first.
Villago Delenda Est
Rove is a grifter, and his marks are dumbshit wingtards with lots of money…who have lots of money because they started out with lots of money…inherited money.
Also. Too. Thank you all for the GOTV, the China trip left me a little out of the loop but I hope to work on Monday and election day.
I have a tech question. I reset my view of the site on my phone and I want to return to what I had. It said I could do that in the footer, but I am not savvy enough to find it. I feel like a dork!
Going to see a friend this morning and then heading out for some GOTV. My John and I will be shopping for a new teevee this evening. We will also start pricing mattress sets. Our mattress has completely given up the ghost.
Yeah, “The Campaigners”. Meme stolen from somewhere but I forget where.
Big thanks to all of you who are GOTV.
@Elizabelle: Last night I met a lady who told me that she has never voted in her life but this year she was motivated (for the first time in her life) because of “all the disgusting talk about rape.” She said that she got pregnant when she was 15 and now her son is 29 and she really resents how “Romney and his gang are attacking women.” She never said she was raped and I didn’t ask but I assumed from the strong emotion she showed. She registered, attended a training with her Union and now she’s part of the GOTV. Individuals like her will win us this State and others.
AA voters are talked about in terms of race so black women are invisible but the attack on women will motivate them to get involved.
ETA – the place I am staying at is sucky so we need to move to another hotel. It’s close to the campaign office but I need a place where we can have a nice breakfast.
Even better, pour it on and take back the House!
Is it a coincidence that as the media sold off their last available time slots for political use (whenever possible, to outside groups like TwistedCrossRoads at rates ~10x what the campaigns themselves have to pay), campaign coverage has been trending away from calling the horse race & toward calling Willard out for lying & other moral cupidity? For a network or station boss, it’s profits first, last & foremost–but once “the hay’s in the barn,” you might start thinking about the credibility of the brand & send your journos scampering back toward actual journalism. If Rasmussen sees the need to “pull a Rasmussen” at the end of every election season (i.e., dialing its weighting functions gradually back from “Republican PR shill” toward reality), why wouldn’t the networks & stations follow suit?
I don’t think it will be a problem. Neither the D’s or the R’s in the family will want to talk politics especially not in those circumstances.
However, if the patient was reversed, the matriarch was having the surgery and the patriarch was in the waiting room, it would have been interesting even if the rest of the family had an unspoken agreement not to watch news or talk politics. Patriarch is over 90, a very firm Dem who pays close attention to politics and loves to talk politics even to strangers. Whatever is on his mind comes out and his Republican son has to just sit there and listen to dad’s musings about the latest Republican outrages while matriarch wishes her spouse would keep his mouth shut. On election day, there is no doubt patriarch would have the election forefront in his mind and talk about it a lot in the waiting room. He just can’t help himself.
It would really be a shame if cultivating friends and business partners like Karl Rove resulted in thieving and betrayal.
I’ve been thinking for a long time that the Citizens United case is just another way for these people to shaft each other. The only commitment they really have is to money and how to get more. Exibit a: Ralph Reed
@Anya: And when you get the black ladies involved you had better watch out!
The lost doggie is found! Crazy story. Our friends were helping another friend who had to be hospitalized and their dog somehow got stuck in the attic of the sick person. They went back to check this morning and found the Butterbean safe and sound! Now I can concentrate on other DAWGS!
third of two
Take that, deities
@Raven: Definitely good news.
GMA is showing a picture of Cory Bo.o.ker who took in folks without power. Camping out with Cory…
that made me smile, that image of the Patriarch holding court about the election. I hope his surgery goes well.
Something to cheer up any reader: Erick Erickson is ready to slit his wrists:
Mike in NC
Turdblossom has never been anything more than a Texas snake-oil salesman.
Or something like that.Suffern Ace
@dmsilev: LOL. So I guess Romey’s “I believe in America” hasn’t had the desired effect of injecting anything like optimism into conservatism. “mourning in America” and hopes for the destruction of Sodom is not going to go far. I guess that must be that burkean modesty.
He really is a stitch and not always intentionally, although he is a good sport and tells stories on himself. He loves hearing and telling slightly naughty jokes. As he entered his 90’s, the brakes on his mouth don’t work as well and sometimes risque stuff pops out to his wife’s dismay.
In his 80’s he got ready to go to an event with his wife and as they were leaving in the house she sniffed and asked him if he had just put on some mentholatum cream and he said no, then had a thoughtful look on his face. It turned out that he had grabbed the wrong tube and combed throw his hair with mentholatum instead of his groom ‘n clean. He had to go wash his hair and start all over. When he tells the story the best part is how he ends it with, “I thought my head was getting kind of warm”.
We hope his surgery and recovery go well so he and his wife can go dancing again. His hip is bone on bone now and he is in a lot of pain, barely gets any sleep. The good thing is that he is very fit for his age and doesn’t have to take any prescrip meds, not even blood pressure.
@Pattonbt: Well I think it is mostly CNN itself who considers itself as one of the big boys
most of us here just consider it pathetic
Sounds like the beginning of the acceptance part of the stages of grief. Me likey.
@Randy P: Grifters always go after the easy marks, and there is nobody easier than a bunch of foaming at the mouth wingnut Obama haters
@bemused: Thank you for these stories. Now i want to be this guy when I grow up. I love laughing at myself too, but the other potential direction I could go is Total Curmudgeon. If FSM grants me another 35 years with my wonderful wife laughing at me when I get grumpy, I might turn out as nice as your patriarch when I’m 90.
Yes, I say all the time they are an inspiration even with their aging bodies giving them grief at times. She has arthritis and under control diabetes and macular degeneration. He is hard of hearing, bad hip, aches and pains. They remain cheerful and interested in life and people and they just keep going. He would still be cutting wood for his outdoor wood stove if his hip hadn’t gotten so bad.
I was arguing with a guy who was “for” Mitt Romney for all the stupid reasons and when he was challenged on specifics on points where he absolutely disagrees with Romney he, too, fell back on a kind of despairing nihilism. He is pro-choice (has three daughters) but when pushed to defend that issue under a Romney presidency he fell back on a kind of “oh, well, we are all going to hell in a handbasket anyway so we won’t have enough time left on the clock to care about personal freedom.” As someone said on another thread in re these arguments its like trying to nail jello to the wall because people just refuse to be accountable for their actions and choices and prefer to both be passionately attached to political candidates in a tribal sense, and to be despairing and nihilistic when faced with the reality of what those choices produce.
I don’t know if we’ll have the numbers to change it this time but we’ve lost a good deal of the Democrats that were standing in the way of reform in 2009. Not just conservative Democrats who didn’t want to give up leverage like Nelson and Lieberman but also tradition-obsessed Democrats like Byrd and Feingold.
There needs to be a specific proposal on the table though before you do a whip count because lots of Democrats have said they support the idea of reform but never backed an actual proposal.
IIJM, or isn’t this a stock political meme that gets trotted out by the punditariat every two years? I mean, in each election 33 or 34 Senate seats are up for running, and in each election it always seems to get reported that more Democrats are having to defend their seats (and always in “contended” states) than Republicans (who are always in “safe” states).
[rhetorical-question disclaimer HERE] Is there ever going to be ANY election where Democrats are going to get the easy end of the Senate run(s)? Or is the “horse-race narrative too important to our political “media”??
It all goes back to Turdblossom’s quote from the Suskind piece in NY Times Magazine:
“The aide (Rove) said that guys like me were “in what we call the reality-based community,” which he defined as people who “believe that solutions emerge from your judicious study of discernible reality.” I nodded and murmured something about enlightenment principles and empiricism. He cut me off. “That’s not the way the world really works anymore.” He continued “We’re an empire now, and when we act, we create our own reality. And while you’re studying that reality—judiciously, as you will—we’ll act again, creating other new realities, which you can study too, and that’s how things will sort out. We’re history’s actors … and you, all of you, will be left to just study what we do.”
They really think they can create “The Math”.
Spinning is all they got: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Zi8EDu1szIs&feature=g-upl
“It’s a tea party conspiracy, started by a drunk in a taxi.”
Hope your manipulation works. Don’t know if you’re in her district, but please make sure Lynn Jenkins also goes down. I’m still mad about her response to me during the “we’re gonna kill the country unless you give us what we want” budget fight. Getting rid of the Koch-slave Forrest Knox in the state senate would be nice too.
Even if you succeed, I’ll be showing up to my small-town Kansas polling place anyways though as I’m still excited to vote for the Kenyan pretender and I like getting the sticker.