Let’s just put these out there again, shall we?
We begin with the three words everyone writing about the election must say: Nobody knows anything. Everyone’s guessing. I spent Sunday morning in Washington with journalists and political hands, one of whom said she feels it’s Obama, the rest of whom said they don’t know. I think it’s Romney. I think he’s stealing in “like a thief with good tools,” in Walker Percy’s old words. While everyone is looking at the polls and the storm, Romney’s slipping into the presidency. He’s quietly rising, and he’s been rising for a while.
We’re going to win by a landslide. It will be the biggest surprise in recent American political history. It will rekindle a whole question as to why the media played this race as a nail-biter, where in fact I think that Romney is going to win by quite a bit. My own view is that Romney is going to carry 325 electoral votes.
Bottom line: Romney 315, Obama 223. That sounds high for Romney. But he could drop Pennsylvania and Wisconsin and still win the election. Fundamentals.
Brian S. Brown:
Romney wins the Electoral College with room to spare — somewhere around 300 electors. All four marriage votes in the deepest of blue states (Washington, Maryland, Minnesota, and Maine) will be won by traditional-marriage supporters. This will happen even though supporters of same-sex marriage have outspent us by gargantuan amounts.
In a fair and just society, political pundits who got things this fucking wrong would never be listened to again. When their names were mentioned, people would mutter embarrassedly and try to change the subject. If they ever tried again to appear on television or write a column about politics, people would point and laugh at their cluelessness until stuff came out their noses. Children would throw turds at them in the street and pin “Kick Me” signs to their backs. The sheer shame engendered by their own stupidity would trap them at home forever, dressed in the tattered rags of their reputations, wearing only one shoe and constantly revisiting the rotted ruins of a table laid with celebratory cake and Romney/Ryan How to Vote cards.
Apologies if this has been discyd already, but what in fuckin hell is taking so long to count votes in Flahduh? And why wont they call it with Obambi up 60K?
“You just wait, Ohio is too close to call and PA is back in play. Suck it, losers!”
It never ceases to amaze me how lousy they can be at their jobs and still HAVE a fucking job.
If I was wrong even 10% as much as these guys are my medical license would be long gone…
Not that I mind that they were wrong this time…
I, otoh, want these idjits to keep the wingers in their ever shrinking bubble until it chokes them to death.
The counterargument is of course this.
I think we are not understanding how this works. Dick Morris, Peggy Noonan or Karl Rove are seen as loyal soldiers who never “betrayed” their cause. By not letting the reality that the election was lost come in, they will ultimately be seen as loyal.
What we are missing is that for many conservatives tribal loyalty is very, very important. It is more important than being “right”. For Karl Rove’s antics on Fox he would actually be more loved, seen as person who battled reality itself, rather than betray his cause.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
My county, the second reddest county in Misery, has gotten crazier. “We” went for Dubya with 76% of the vote in 04, McCain with 72% in 08.
Rmoney? 77.1%. Infuckingcredible. How I ever let my wife convince me to move here from Northern VA is beyond me.
I think it dawns on them that even a reduced Obama victory still wins many swing states. Social ballot issues were a win for Democrats this time. It was a small victory, but also a decisive one. The old times won’t come back. Things have to change.
OTOH, one could also argue that CNN, Fox et al are doing a great public service by rounding up all of these idiots and keeping them in one place, making them easy to avoid.
You know, sorta like a leper colony.
Last night watching the NBC coverage you had Brian Williams, Chuck Todd, and The Turd Blossom Dancer all talking about how NO ONE predicted this huge electoral advantage for Obama.
Somehow forgetting they had just been bitching about Nate Silver predicting it.
If being wrong is a virtue the GOP will live forever!
Who pays Dick Morris?
gonna go down and grab some hotel brekkie and watch what passes for news on Faux….
Lots of irony here. By insisting that Romney was going to win, that it was a super close race, these idiots probably indirectly helped drive Democratic turnout. Keep up the good work, asshats!
Having heard the statements of Boehner and McConnell, I know nothing will be changing in the next four years. Bad for the country, but great news for 2016.
And can we also acknowledge in the midst of all this pundit fail that Nate Silver nailed it like a boss?
Math is awesome.
@debbie: Maybe, so, but if Harry Reid keeps his promise to revisit genuine filibuster reform in the Senate…who knows? And I wouldn’t be surprised to see a very different Obama this second term. Much the same way we saw a very different candidate Obama in the second debate. Things might get very interesting.
Sarah, Proud and Tall
You are entirely right – they will all continue on with their reputations enhanced amongst their kind.
They are still fucking morons.
Will we finally learn the story of UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH boy? A long-running DougJ trolling operation? A paid GOP operative sucking down some of those dollars in what had to have been the most useless waste of campaign dollars ever? An actual honest to God true believer?
We can’t just end this on a cliffhanger.
Closest state won by Romney: North Carolina. 2nd closest state won by Romney: Georgia. Not Montana, Missouri or Arizona.
They were never paid to be right. They were paid to be claxon horns in the wingnut echo chamber. Moreover, they were so wrong, I’m beginning to suspect that the Wingnut Wurlizer was tossing out these ridiculous predictions for Romney only to underscore the extent to which the Black Socialist Kenyan had rigged the system — from the MSM and its lackey “pollsters” like Nate Silver on down to Eric Holder’s Black Panther enforcers intimidating good white Christians at every polling station in America.
Think about what it took to bring Romney down from what would have been a Reagan ’84 like rout! How big a threat is Obama to the future of the world if he could engineer stealing an election this big? I predict: 1. absolutely _no_ real soul searching by the GOP; 2. a frantic doubling-down on the voter fraud meme and scrambling to find more and better ways of keeping minorities, students and women from voting next time.
Warren is killin it on Joe.
@Raven: How is Scarborough dealing with the crushing of his dreams and hopes? Badly, I trust.
@Alex S.: I woke up at 1AM and turned on my radio to hear some winger pundit speak the truth. He said that until the GOP stops alienating women and minorities (of color and sexuality), they would go the way of the dinosaur. He claimed black and Hispanic voter turn out was way up from 2008 and “what does that say about demographics?”
I know what it says to me if Ari Fleischer is any indication, his spewage about the GOP never being for LGBT and women’s rights means the GOP is headed for the dust bin of political parties.
We did, several threads back. It turns out he really, really hates the ‘queers’. He’s just your bog standard hate filled redneck!
@Frankensteinbeck: That’s it? How sadly mundane.
MAH FINGAHS! I haz a sore from clicking approve on all you folks comments last night. And I was like fourth string backup.
I’ve already seen all the bitching and moaning from the right on my facebook this morning. It’s not over. We have to make sure the only places left with GOP officials are the hardcore nutbag paradises. Quarantine the fuckers and build a supermajority in the House somehow. And that might mean running some candidates in districts that went unopposed. Fuck, my local races were almost all uncontested.
It seems to me that a lot more young people voted in this election more than any other. That’s what it will take to get the change that is needed in this country. Colorado passing the legalization of marijuana happened because young people came out to vote for it. And the Democrats taking the victories that weren’t expected is another sign of the young vote.
@dmsilev: Not really, I mean he’s annoying as usual but he’s known for a long time. Steve Schmidt was saying that McCain knew in September that he was going to lose.
Let me guess: he kept complaining about how they wouldn’t stop sucking his cock.
Faux news post election day…. More Obama scare from Betsy M regarding just how shitty Obamacare is and how contraception and healthcare is now controlled by the government and how much worse that is than having it controlled by your employer.
Let’s see if the fucking left get its act together by then. As Obama said, you need to stay engaged politically all the time and at all the levels to bring about the change you so crave.
Insane wingnut on Facebook declares with an Obama victory, cheap Chinese made guns will now flood the American market….
I don’t even know what to read this morning. I can’t. I’m overwhelmed.
By the way, Minnesota DFL took back their House and Senate. This is huge.
You left out George (Fudging) Will. http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2012/11/this-week-roundtable-election-day-predictions/
I admit that Matt Dowd, depending on how Florida ends up, pretty much nailed the Electoral College and Donna Brazille the popular vote.
Yes, and it is funny after all the hate direceted at Nate Silver (and lesser degree Sam Wang), suddenly they become non-persons because they were right???? The Village, as Bob Somerby continues to note, sure has some strange incentives to encourage the stupidity.
I think for the above group, the lies and fairy tales are a feature, not a bug. All their current incentives is to just to keep making it up on what Jon Stewart has so aptly called, “Bullshit Mountain.” Because I guess the .1%, CEOs and Hedge Fund Managers, who attend these soirees where Turd Blossom, Peggy Nooners, Niall Ferguson, Cokie Roberts, Michael Barone, and Dick (so well named, rhymes with P—) Morris get paid $50,000 an event, like to be told comforting lies about their awesomeness and evil Liberals and N-clangs who want take away their stuff or just upset their sensitive feh-fehs. For more on the long Con in the con movement, see: http://www.thebaffler.com/past/the_long_con/print
Rob in Buffalo
George Will: Romney 321 (including MN!), Obama 217.
Edit: Or, what sherpatrick said.
@rlrr: So did he regard that as being good news or bad news?
My one take is that Obama lost the squeaker in North Carolina due to his direct statement of support for same-sex marriage.
NOT saying he shouldn’t have made the statement.
NOT saying he wasn’t correct to do so.
As for Mitt’s concession speechlet – the man has waffled and/or lied about everything under the sun in order to advance himself.
Why should anyone accept him as suddenly being honest and/or contrite now?
Bad news, since all the American gun manufacturers will go out of business (this guy is truly nuts, he’ll also go on about how Obama is going to take away all the guns).
Heard this AM that Rmoney wants to contest Ohio results! I suggest Obama GIVE the Ohio EV to Rmoney as a consolation gift! He still is a loser, just a loser with Ohio added.
All I can see is that scene from Trading Places, after the Dukes get conned on the OJ swing
“TURN THOSE MACHINES BACK ON!”
@sherparick: Matt Dowd said on Sun that when a campaign starst saying the only poll that matters is the one on election day, you know that campaigns losing.
Looks like Mary Bono Mack lost by a very tiny margin. Connie Mack lost. First time a husband and wife team lost together. Also, Amii Bera beat Dan Lundgren. I don’t know the finals on the house but Cali made up a little of the Texas redistrict repub gain.
I’m thinking about the budget.
The expiration of the Bush cuts is a great thing, because taxes can be raised on the rich without the wingnut House ever having to vote for tax increases, which they surely won’t. So the Senate can pass a targeted middle-class cut, and the wingnuts can decide whether they want to sign on, or be held responsible for everyone’s taxes going up.
The only fly in this ointment: We’re going to have a big contingent of Blue Dogs in the Senate. Will they try to get the Bush cuts renewed in toto?
Mornin Joe “This wasn’t Alabama Vs LSU it was Alabama vs Ball State”!
That made me SQWEE! I know we had the senate but the House was a surprise. Bad news is a lot – A LOT – of shit pulled in the last 20 years under Carlsons, Jesse the Boobie and Timmy will have to be paid for & if the Dems try to do that the GOP will be there to blame them for causing the problem & voters are just stupid enough to fall for it
Gordon, the Big Express Engine
Fox gave a shout out to Nate silver after the concession by Romney applauding him for nailing it. I was pretty stunned
Now there’s 2 years until the turnout for 2014 is older & whiter (as happens in non-Presidential years just like 2010) and we get to hear about another anti-Democrat revolt.
They don’t get fired because they are being payed to lie, essentially. They’re professional propagandists.
Wait, the election was YESTERDAY?
Good luck to them with that. In 2014, the rest of the reforms come in, and everyone will notice how little it affects people in a good situation with health insurance and how much it helps people who aren’t. Betsy will look like Baghdad fuckin’ Bob at that point.
Victory is SWEET and Reed had better realize that by picking up three seats HE has to override the thugs for reelected President Obama’s (Yeah!!!)Inferior court choices to come – and maybe if two retire, it will be a real court again where facts decide cases not mental illness.
Wow, that next to last sentence is a keeper! Couldn’t have said it better myself.
PRESIDENT-ELECT MITT ROMNEEEEE
Which is why I was worried when Obama got emotional in Iowa. I was afraid of what that might mean. So glad I was wrong about that.
I am in moderation. WTF. Brian Bilbray got beat. Californayay just turned bluer. We have to work on Texas. Fvck Tom Brokaw and his crappy voice.
@Schlemizel: It’s not going to be perfect, but it sure beats the alternative. And we didn’t just win, we *walloped*. I couldn’t believe the results when I saw them.
I am listening in bits and pieces to conservative radio, and apparently, Obama won because of academics, freeloaders, people who watch Jersey Shore, Comedy Central and the Kardashians, and who want free birth control.
Glad we got that solved. How much worse do the Republicans become? How far away is the Wingnut Event Horizon?
SPT: Children would throw turds at them in the street.
Why should children have all the fun?
I had to laugh at Chuck Todd this morning on Joe patting himself on the back for what a good job the NBC polling outfit had done. No mention of Silver yet on Morning Joe.
Did Anne Romney even come out last night? I was half asleep by that time. I am seriously worried about Anne. She seemed really emotional, and not in a good way. Like mental basketcase kind of way.
Mornin Joe, “we can argue about the Republican Party being a far right party, a right party or a center right party. I think we can all agree it needs to stop being the STUPID Party”!
They can’t do anything more about it than the Republicans can. The current cuts will expire, and their choices will be (a) middle class cuts only, or (b) no cuts at all.
@mai naem: She have all the care money can buy, to hell with her.
But why? Why doesn’t younger, non-white voters show up in non-Presidential years?
I understand people have other things to do, but when you don’t vote they can really only blame themselves for crap pulled by GOP Governors, legislators and the GOP House.
@mai naem: Last seen running around backstage, ranting about someone having stolen her tarts.
Without control of the House, filibuster reform is pointless except for judges. I’m hoping that Reid and the Dems propose an adjustment to the filibuster for presidential nominations in general, but I doubt that they will propose an ourright reform of the filibuster altogether since there would be no advantage to it without control of the House. (I’d like to see the filibuster killed altogether personally regardless of who it advantages, but I know politics don’t work like that.)
He’d better be somewhat different – he’s got 4 years of this crap under his belt and he knows how the idiots in Congress operate.
I’m betting that he continues to speak the bipartisan mantra for the cameras but works things a bit differently behind the scenes. Because, unfortunately, Democratic voters disapprove of partisan presidents and have for as long as I’ve watched politics, and Obama knows that he has to keep his job approval up if he wants to have any political capital at all as a second term president.
(I’m hoping he realizes that as a second term president all he has is the approval of the people as political capital and it uses it – direct appeals to the population to put pressure on their Republican and Blue-Dog Dem representatives is about the only leverage he’s going to have for the next 2-4 years. It’s weak tea, but I don’t see any other levers on the domestic side that he has available for him to pull without a Democratic House and an overwhelming majority in the Senate.)
This morning I was thinking, we like to complain about journalists a lot, but I would like to thank all those journalists who did step forward and tell the truth through this election campaign. The names that come to mind are David Corn, David Margolick (whose article on Netanyahu brought into focus just what the Sheldon Adelson connection meant), and Michael Lewis, but there really are many more.
@Gordon, the Big Express Engine: A little break in their 24-hour Benghazi routine, I guess. Sounds like they’re going to be pushing the “Benghazi! Impeach!” line for the next 4 years. And where Fox leads, Rush et al follow. Let’s see how that works out for them, ratings wise.
@Robin G.: You make me realize I completely ignored the state-level races here in PA. In the Senate, Bob Casey won handily. In the House, I’m stuck with Pat Meehan for another term. We have 5 Dems, 13 Rs in our House delegation. Sigh.
Can’t find a summary of the state legislature results yet.
Meanwhile, in voter ID news, the poll workers were asking everybody. And everybody was meekly producing their drivers licenses. This despite the fact that this is a fairly well-educated suburb in Delaware County. When they asked me if I had ID, I simply replied “Yes I do” without producing it. And they agreed I didn’t have to. No issue.
Then there was a state “info” handout on the table too, talking about the ID you “need”. You had to read it very carefully to spot the words “in coming elections”. When I waved the paper at my neighbor & local Dem leader, she rolled her eyes and just said “I know”. The Republican nearby mumbled something about “we’re just trying to let people know what they’ll need in the future”.
Bastards. This fight isn’t over, I hope.
My question is- are those Dick Morris’s own feet in his mouth?
So will there be a group of undecideds on TV today to announce they still haven’t made up their tiny little minds?
You know who’s really breathing a sigh of relief this morning? The people of Iran.
That which must be said…
THIS IS EXCELLENT NEWS!! FOR MCCAIN!!!
Shortly before the debates, I heard Glenn Beck saying he would be suicidal if Obama won. He’s on here in 30 minutes and I hope to hear him keeping his word.
I woke up this morning to Allen West being projected to lose. I cannot recall the last time so many elections went how I wanted them to; even 2008 wasn’t this satisfying, wince the Tea Party wasn’t around to get trounced.
I don’t think it’s quite that easy. The Blue Dogs could threaten to bolt and vote with Senate Republicans for across-the-board renewal of the Bush cuts, and put Obama in the position of vetoing bipartisan tax cuts. \
Not saying that will happen, but that’s the worry.
Remember a couple of days ago when Allen and Vandehei wrote “a broad mandate this is not”?
Here’s your broad mandate.
Is that a PUMA purr I hear?
In a fair and just society…
this is not a good measure for “In a fair and just society” there wouldn’t be anyone in today’s republican party or those that were would be in under psychiatric care or in prisons.
Poor Sheldon. Hundreds of millions won’t even buy a war anymore.
@Randy P: In my well-to-do and Republican (except for me) central PA suburb, voters weren’t asked for ID.
it seems like Allen West may have lost but it’s not final.
@Randy P: in My MontCo precinct, they were inconsistent about asking. I was asked, and I refused, no big deal.
@Schlemizel: wtf ? for realz ?
Man. I went to bed after it was called and you guys kept having fun. Sorry I missed it.
I was lsightly snarky to my Republican friends on FB, but dind’t rub the salt in too deep. Now I’m enjoying my french press coffee, enjoying my last day of work for this week, and really looking forward to crushing these bastards for good in 2014.
@debbie: Comments like these are why we need a like button.
That was very sweet to see!
Feel free to discount my gloomier thoughts, its the way I am built. I think someone should always be worried about what is next & prepared for the worst just in case. The alternative is what gets you into Iraq type situations.
I woory about the DFL taking the blame when they try to fix the problems the GOP caused. I worry why the voters who turned out in 08 couldn’t be bothered in 10 which allowed th GOP to be in charge of redistricting (thereby keeping batshit in the House) but came back strong in 12 – will hey abandon us again in 14?
SHORTER: Its stupid to publicly say the things you believe if they cost you votes! STOP THAT!
Glad to see I am not the only one wondering this. Those people ;) cost the DFL control of MN in 10 & redistricting helped the GOP enough that they saved Batshit Bachmanns seat. Had they bothered to actually vote we could have ended her reign of error
In fairness that was a report for earlier in the morning but after his speech. Probably just sour grapes from the trolls inside his operation feeding the “they won ergo they cheated” morans
@MrSnrub: Here in Center City Philadelphia, the guy ahead of me went on a 2-3 minute rant about how he didn’t have to show ID even while the election workers were telling him that he didn’t have to. Not sure who the grandstanding was designed to impress.
@mai naem: Look, all those folks (Ann, Mitt and the whole tribe) are headed for some serious emotional breakdowns that are, indeed, not going to be pretty, b/c they just found out that God, apparently, did not want Romney to win the presidency of the US. On top of that, they’re not used to not getting what they want.
Ann tried to warn us that we’d damned well better realize and appreciate how lucky we were to have Mitt as a candidate for the highest office in the land.
Here’s to an ungrateful electorate!
Sadly, Glenn’s still with us at 9:18, but he’s very choked up right now, drawing a parallel to July 4, 1776 and Thomas Paine. A few fairly long stretches of dead air must mean he’s crying.
@mikefromArlington: It really is excellent news for McCain in that, despite his continuing “old man yells at cloud” persona, Romney’s campaign made McCain look like a saintly and principled old man.
This isn’t exactly surprising. The pundits and analysts who spoke out against Gulf War Part Deux were not exactly promoted to positions of prominence and authority when events showed them to be correct. In the media, it’s far better to be wrong while standing with the collective than correct and standing alone.
@rlrr: I am surprised that they view this as a bad thing. (a) Most Real Murkans have had no difficulties buying cheap Chinese consumer goods for some time now, and (b) All those guns will clearly make our country a safer place to live.
@Michael2: I am laughing at your comment, but what is the “Wingnut Event Horizon”? Sounds ominous!
I stopped watching CNN, and had to go to another room. Their coverage was largely reporting every single county in every state as if it was the key to national election. Since Romney’s safe states were the first to report, they were going on as if it was a slow and steady march to victory for the GOP.
Oddly enough, on Fox, they were expressing unease about the fact that Romney was only winning states that McCain won in 2008.
I went back to the old networks. CBS for national, and switched to WLS-TV (ABC’s Chicago station) for local races. CBS had none of the consultants and spin-meisters, just their reporters. It was calm and deliberative – a refreshing change of pace.
And … what about Naomi?
Tune in next week to find out, on “Love of Troll”!
@Ash Can: You read the Onion yesterday, then.
I should not have had that glass of champagne at the party after we left the Montlake Ale house.
@Rob in Buffalo:
The spousal unit was looking at me worriedly when I began loudly cursing George Will and proclaiming he should never be allowed a prominent forum for espousing his “expertise,” since, obviously, he has none. I switched over to Colbert, who despite having Andrew Sullivan as his guest, was much easier to watch.
Been reading this site for a long time. This is the BEST POST EVAH!
Still can’t believe they ran on rape. Un-fucking believable.
@debbie: That must be why my wingnut brother is posting Thomas Paine quotes on FB. His Obama supporting wife should start worrying about getting him some mental health care.
My insider sources say that they see signs that the Obama campaign may have recovered some of its mojo, but that the Romney campaign is likely to pivot and really bring out the swing state vote with voters’ concerns about the Benghazi issue.
Peggy Noonan, like the vast majority of Modern Republicans, lives in Wonderland, where wishful thinking and ideology trump reality.
Noonan’s Romney momentum turns out to be “fauxmentum” and Nate Silver mix of math, common sense, and intelligence wins out easily over Dick Morris and his vile fantasies.
WNYC’s Jonathan Schwartz said on his 11/3 show that Peggy Noonan had told him privately (while they were both visiting a mutual friend) that she believed Obama would win. It would seem that she’s been lying to the public; I presume that’s because she knows on which side her bread is buttered.
The Brian Brown predictions are especially charming.
This, and because these pundits have an uncanny ability to be wrong about the right things at the right time. (See: buildup to Gulf War II, timing of deficit hawkery, etc.)
They served their purpose, which was to sell the horse race. Our Lady of the Magic Dolphins may have been the only one who sincerely believed what she was saying, but then, she is of diminished responsibility. They all did yeoman’s work in helping a walking parody of the clueless mega-rich and his granny-starving sidekick get ‘way too close to the Oval Office.
Well, he took them out so he could kick his own ass….