Apparently misunderstanding how a Friday night news dump is supposed to work, North Korea has re-declared war on the South.
Okay then
by Tim F| 62 Comments
This post is in: WTF?
Okay then
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David Koch
This calls for emergency shuttle diplomacy by Ambassador Meadowlark Lemon.
The Dangerman
I think, at this point, even China is telling them to shut the fuck up.
sparky
I haven’t had a dump in 2 days. Old age is hell, so I’m pretty indifferent to a nuclear holocaust right about now. It’s been a good enough run.
ETA oh, you said something about a “news Dump.” Sorry.
eemom
I don’t know if this post is supposed to be a joke or not, but here’s the thing that bothers me about 99.9% of the “coverage” of any kind in our world about North Korea: that place — for its actual, you know, people — is literally hell on earth. It is Nazi Germany on a smaller scale, it’s been going on for more than half a century, and NOBODY in the rest of the world gives a SHIT, period.
Never even gets a fucking mention in contexts like SG’s post the other day on the topic of where horrific slaughters of human beings might justify military intervention.
Everybody just sucks right up to the saber rattling bullshit of one of the most successfully brutal dictatorships that has ever existed. Fucking HILARIOUS.
Villago Delenda Est
Well, since technically the North and South have been continuously at war since 1950, and only an armistice shut down major military operations in 1953, and no peace treaty has ever been negotiated or agreed to by both sides, this is really rather stupid. Since they’re already at war.
The NKs get their panties in a bunch every spring when Team Spirit (the major joint US/South Korean military exercise of the year) runs.
Hill Dweller
@The Dangerman:
China has a lot of people(diplomats, business people, students, etc.) living in Seoul. If they start calling their citizens home, then we’ve got a real problem.
Kim Jong Un makes his father look sane, which I didn’t think possible.
Villago Delenda Est
@Hill Dweller:
The crazy runs in the House of Kim…the first communist state to experience the joys of dynastic succession.
Mr Stagger Lee
Is Florida Gulf Coast for real? I think Kim Jong Un is still pissed that that Psy surpassed his Justin Bieber with the most popular download on YouTube.
David Koch
on the bright side, a new korean war would revitalize Alan Alda’s career.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@eemom: One of the reasons Hitchens hated Bill Clinton (and I think Hitchens was, in almost every political regard, a crank and wet-brained clown) was that he thought Clinton should have gone to NK after Madeleine Albright’s visit. I admit to a barely cursory knowledge of the subject, I think in this regard he may have been right. “May have been”, I’m not saying Hitchens’ spittle flecked hatred of Clinton was in this or any other way justified.
I’m not really clear on how much influence even the Chinese have at this point. My understanding is the since the grandfather, Kim il-Sung died, the last two Kims have been in more (now, Kim Jong-Un) or less (his father, Kim Jong-il) the control of a group of generals, and there isn’t a whole lot of sane there.
Valdivia
I thoughT they would change the ridiculous nuclear reach maps on Friday so no one would notice. Guess they tripled down?
cleek
if only Mitch McConnell had shown real leadership!
Mike E
@sparky: Best. Cloud. Shout. Evah.
Mandalay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I used to assume the “hatred” was just a ruse to boost his book sales (much like Coulter), since he was always very careful to target popular figures (Princess Diana, Mother Teresa, Clinton) when there were a gazillion people far more deserving of his bile.
And then he unwaveringly supported the invasion of Iraq, and I realized that he was just like a kid in a toy store…some new shiny object would grab his attention. He became a polemicist who didn’t really believe in anything except picking fights and winning arguments. And the real message was “Look at me! Look at me!”.
? Martin
@eemom:
That’s not true. The problem is nobody has any goddamn idea what to do about it, without threatening the lives of countless South Koreans.
Keep in mind that NK is still under the delusion that they can convince the SK citizenry to rise up, overthrow their government and join the north. This is the diplomatic equivalent of trying to reason with an insane person. There is no solution other than, either nuking them, or doing the conventional equivalent. Liberating the people of North Korea from their oppressors by killing most of them is not much of a victory. And the people there have been so cut off from reality by their own leadership that there is no way to win the people over. Further, the generation that does have a memory of normal life are mostly dead now. Everyone else grew up in that skinner-box-from-hell. You might as well be trying to convince them to move to Mars.
It’s a problem without solution.
Del
@? Martin: Eh, it has a solution. You even mentioned it in your post. The fortunate, and difficult, reality though is that mass slaughter of an entire body populace because it’s been driven insane by it’s leadership isn’t a viable option. If they finally decide they can take SK they’re pretty much all dead even without considering a nuclear response. The part that really sucks? The generals have to know it but their people don’t. They’re political version of a pissed off chihuahua that thinks it can take on the neighborhood pitbull.
Petorado
Why aren’t Republicans from the US of A flocking to North Korea? They’re highly militarized, their foreign policy is extremely belligerent, they loves guns, their leaders of state are treated like Ronald Reagan, whatever the ruling party says goes, whatever US Democrats say – fuck ’em, they have great disparity of wealth, being poor REALLY sucks in N. Korea, I haven’t heard of ANY abortion clinics there. Gay rights — in North Korea? Are you kidding? They have no issues with illegal immigration (into the country) — and they have really secure borders. And they have no Obamacare. The place is practically like the Citadel, and they even make their own nukes there. What’s stopping these guys?
MikeJ
@? Martin:
Forget “not a victory”, it’s not an option. I have no doubt that a SEAL team or two and well placed bombs could take out many bad guys with minimal loss of civilian life[1], provided China didn’t mind us deploying military to their border. And of course they’ll mind.
If China tried to come in get rid of the narcotraficos in Mexico, the US would have a shit fit, even though the demise of narcotraficos would be good all around. This is the position China is in in reverse.
[1] Of course we’d still have post-war to deal with, which we don’t do at all, but that’s not the point here.
Roger Moore
@? Martin:
FTFY. Nothing short of a war is going to force the North Korean government out of power, and that war would create far more misery and death in North Korea than their government has managed- which is saying something. And that’s before you include all the damage to South Korea, the cost in blood and treasure to the USA, and the potential to spark a larger regional war that would suck China into the fray. Before we go on a crusade to help the poor North Koreans, I want to see a plausible plan for how it’s going to work.
Higgs Boson's Mate
@eemom:
In recent years, the Pentagon has estimated that U.S. and South Korean forces would suffer between 300,000 and 500,000 casualties in the first ninety days of a war with North Korea. There would also be hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties.
maya
Repeating from a thread below, we do have a Post-conflict stability operations plan for North Korea after we topple Kim Jung-un, don’t we?
Suffern ACE
@maya:yes. We ply the population with booze and point our finger at South Korea and mutter ” I thought you had a plan”
Del
So what are the chances that they agree to a joint exercise? It’s in everyone’s interest to remove Junior from power and excise the NK problem once and for all. In the event that they go completely batshit (which they appear to be doing) you’d think China and either Russia or the US would have some sort of contingency plan in place to minimize the regional damage.
Mandalay
@? Martin:
What if Obama did a Nixon and went to North Korea? Apart from the perception by some of loss of face, what would be the downside?
Come to think of it, he could stop off in Havana on the way back as well.
MikeJ
@Del:
To continue my analogy, what are the chances the US would go along with a joint exercise to rid Mexico of narcotraficos? Zero, none, nil, nada.
China’s national interest is like that of the US. They don’t want a superpower deployed to their border any more than we would. I would be thrilled to be wrong though.
YoohooCthulhu
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
http://www.washingtonmonthly.com/features/2004/0405.kaplan.html
I don’t think Clinton goign after Albright’s visit would’ve made a difference, considering how much the subsequent Bush admin cocked up the situation.
tkogrumpy
Well, South Korea has had the benefit of sixty years of capitalism, under the U.S. wing, and North Korea has suffered under sixty years of communist oppression, It should be a cake walk for the South Korean powerhouse.
Higgs Boson's Mate
@Mandalay:
Nixon was able to initiate relations with China because he had ironclad credentials as a he-man anti-communist. Nixon also had the advantage of not having to deal with an opposition party that was batshit insane.
“Obama sold us out to the North Koreans!” would be the start. It would get really ugly after that.
ShadeTail
@Del:
How can you tell? To my eye, it looks identical to all the rest of the empty chest thumping and saber rattling they’ve been doing for 50+ years.
BTW, Tim F., any chance you could make the link to their actual site instead of the mobile site?
Vixen Strangely
I’m weirded out by the asymmetry of NK wanting to take the US on. I guess that’s what the “We’ve always been at war with South Korea” jag is supposedly about. It’s always tincan DU splashdown in the big drink time when they are feeling unloved (as always) and alone (I thought that was how they wanted it). And I’m not saying I know how we should respond, because I don’t. But I’m a grim person. And if they want to send us a bouquet of ballistics with the little fissile bits on top, I was thinking one especially cruel trick we could do is send them several million pizzas.
No. That’s really it. Maybe some chicken fingers, too. And a promise to set them up with some cable tv. Because we could do really awful things. We could. Glass them. But actually, I just think the most delegitimizing thing we could do is fuck the Kim government. Airlift so much fucking aid, and let them know this was what they were cut out of by the little tin gods who ran the joint. Let them see their military fight off the advance of meals and like, maybe some beverages.
MikeJ
@Higgs Boson’s Mate
Before AF-1 was wheels up from Andrews impeachment proceedings would be underway.
tkogrumpy
There is only one acceptable response to N.K. sabre rattling, Laugh at them.
Mandalay
@Higgs Boson’s Mate:
Yep, I get that, but I don’t see any other real downside to going. There hasn’t been an iota of change for the better in NK for over 60 years, and doing nothing won’t solve anything.
If there is a 1% chance that Obama’s visit might thaw relations and induce changes, however small, then why not go? Seems to me that the human suffering in NK, and the risks of an attack on Seoul, fully justify it.
Why should Obama give a shit about what Republicans say anyway? If he got something out of the visit he’d look good, and his critics would have egg on their faces.
Roger Moore
@Del:
Less than the chances of George W Bush being the next prime minister of Iraq. My gut feeling is that China is going to do what it can to prevent both war and North Korean collapse because either one would result in hordes of starving refugees pouring across the border. I’m sure they’d love to figure out some way of stabilizing North Korea so that it would be less likely to collapse or provoke a war, but they’re mostly focused on preventing a short term disaster.
handsmile
Would someone be willing to volunteer where he or she is getting information and basing opinions on the current situation in North Korea or the psychohistory of Kim Jong-Un?
Because if the sources are the Washington Post, the New York Times or one of the American broadcast or cable networks, I’ll know exactly how much credit to give it.
Until I read something alarming from a reliable international affairs organization (e.g., SIPRI, Chatham House, International Crisis Group) or a news organization proven more credible in its reporting and analysis of foreign affairs, I’ll remain less than concerned about the gravity of this latest episode of saber-rattling on the Korean peninsula. For now, it’s articles like these that I find more informative and plausible:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/mar/29/north-korea-attack-us-what-happens-next
http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2013/mar/29/could-north-korean-armageddon-happen
(I suppose I should add that I’m quite aware that rhetoric has been escalating since the unanimous imposition of new and more severe sanctions on North Korea by the UN Security Council earlier this month. Sanctions that were drafted by the US and North Korea’s foremost ally, China.)
Chris
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It was my understanding that Kim Jong Il was pretty much an absolute ruler in the Stalin/Mao tradition, with pretty much no other power centers to speak of. Is that wrong? Where does the idea that he (and now his kid) were in thrall to the generals come from? Not challenging the assertion, just wondering where it came from.
PeakVT
@Martin: It’s a problem without solution.
It’s a problem without a solution that the US/SK/JP can put in place (without massive bloodshed). The situation could be resolved by NK leadership unwinding itself, as the Soviets did and the Cubans are slowly doing, or CN forcing them to pipe down and focus on the NK economy. The first is highly unlikely, while the second also seems unlikely until NK somehow disrupts CN’s commerce. So we’re stuck with listening to the rantings of a crazy state for the foreseeable future.
GregB
Can’t we just get these two together in a room and tell them to knock the shit off? President McCain would do that.
If that doesn’t work perhaps we can parachute in a small liberation force led by Kim Jong Chalabi.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym (JMN)
@Mandalay:
The North Koreans have to want some sort of responsible resolution before that’s possible. Nixon could go to China because China wanted normalized relations. China was willing to become at least a semi-responsible actor on the world stage.
The North Koreans want nothing of the sort. So there’s no opening to go there.
Monala
Well, Dennis Rodman said that Kim Jong Un wants Obama to call him, so the President may not need to make a visit, just a phone call.
TenguPhule
You mean aside from the obvious risks of assassination and/or kidnapping by the North Koreans on their turf?
Send them someone we can afford to lose, like a Blue dog or the Senate Minority leader.
Anne Laurie
@Hill Dweller:
As in the proverb, Shirtsleeves to shirtsleeves in three generations…
Anybody know the Chinese PRA equivalent of SEAL Team Six?
Roger Moore
@TenguPhule:
I thought the goal was to improve relations, not start a war. Do you really think sending them Yertle the Turtle is going to help matters?
NotMax
Holy shades of Grand Fenwick, Batman.
El Tiburon
Very good news for John McCain.
frednash
@sparky: @? Martin: watch it I live in mars
Its already filled with right wing Christians
There’s no room for competition
Ken
I only just realized the Korea parts in World War Z were a political metaphor.
Briefly, when the zombie apocalypse begins, everyone in North Korea seals themselves into their underground shelter system. Humanity eventually wins, but no one’s heard anything from the NK bunkers, and no one wants to open them because of what might come shambling out by the tens of millions.
gnomedad
@MikeJ:
Are you shittin’ me? I know the SEALs are good, but do they have invisibility cloaks now?
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@gnomedad:
Maybe?
Chris
@gnomedad:
Impossible.
No team that small has a cloaking device!
CarolDuhart2
The problem is that we are dealing with the third generation. First generation actually fought the war, lost, and decided to consolidate power instead. The next generation decided to keep the status quo. Both were men of some political savvy and some sense or realism. This teenager has been sheltered all his life and probably really believes the propaganda full tilt and is at an age where he really feels the need to show that he can fill his father’s and grandfathers shoes. Think G Bush in a third generation.
He may actually think he can win this thing and let the dogs of war slip, or lack the brinksmanship skills to hold off at the last minute.
I agree with those who think he may be more of a paper tiger. How modern is that army? Or the training?
I also suspect that China is resigned to having a unified Korea. While it may not be thrilled to have some U.S troops near the border, at least both sides have good reason to believe war is not in their best interest, and Korea Unified is more likely to want to trade with China than start trouble. The peninsula would also be nuclear-free, stable and reasonably prosperous, the refugees would go home, and the U.S would probably drawn down significantly it’s military presence.
Chris
@CarolDuhart2:
Ha, third generation Bush indeed.
There are many reasons why today’s conservatives are having more trouble than the previous generation relating to the public, but at least one of them is exactly what you describe with the Kims. Unlike Nixon and Reagan who grew up in New Deal America, the current crop grew up in an America where it was taken for granted that all True Americans agreed with them and the others didn’t matter. That’ll make you lazy and blind.
maya
I don’t see a problem here that couldn’t be solved with some free Disney World diplomacy and a few certified low gag-reflex hookers for Kimmy Boy.
CarolDuhart2
@Chris: Not only that, but the propaganda bubble is eerily similar. The first was probably a true believer, but had outside experiences to temper his fanaticism. Son seems to have been more of a playboy and probably didn’t really care as long as he was on top. Sonny boy, probably too sheltered and used to deference, needs to show his generals that he deserves to remain on top.
AllanA
Sounds like it’s time for…Team America: World Police. America, HELL YEAH!
cmorenc
@eemom:
North Korea is more like a hybrid of Stalinist Russia and Mao’s China, where the entire country is semi-impoverished, backward, paranoid gulag. Nazi Germany is more of what happens when a relatively cultured, civilized country gets infected with cancerous psychopathic insanity, where Nazi officers helped round up Jews by daytime and went home to listen to Bach’s Brandenburg Concertos at night.
Todd Dugdale
@? Martin: True. Unlike Nazi Germany, NK does not seek territory or lebensraum. There will not be much left of SK after a conflict but toxic rubble and a shattered infrastructure.
Unlike Nazi Germany, NK has no significant allies; just a few powerful countries that don’t actively seek its destruction (e.g. China, Russia).
The analogy is closer to Japan toward the end of WW2, only with less agriculture on NK’s part. They have a big military and nothing else, so they think it’s time for them to use it.
They will gain nothing and lose everything, but they will create a big mess in the process. And attacking them first only makes a big mess happen sooner.
equs_personus
@MikeJ: you mean they’re not already?
eemom
What I meant by comparing them to Nazi Germany was the concentrations camps, murder, torture and starvation of human beings. Was not aiming for a sophisticated political-historical analogy.
And this thread proves what I set out to say in the first place, which is that when people talk about North Korea, none of the conversation is about those human beings.
No, I guess that’s not quite true — some of the comments above notice them long enough to dismiss them as a lost cause.
AxelFoley
@Mandalay:
Surely you’re not serious.
Cygil
It is impossible to redeclare the war because every party agrees that, at law, it has never ended. All agree that what occurred is a ceasefire which happens to have lasted a very, very long time. North Korea’s bellicose rhetoric is frightening but this is simply a restatement of its long term position, not a “redeclaration of war.” Facts are important; get them right.
Lurking Canadian
As I understand it, the North Korean army has enough conventional artillery dug into virtually indestructible underground redoubts that they could slaughter virtually the entire population of Seoul before anything the US or the South could do to stop them.
There’s no way they could survive a protracted war, absent significant support from China. Their economy is a shambles. However, they could (and likely would) kill am awful lot of people on the way down, which is why armed conflict is not desirable.
I do like the “airlift massive amounts of food” approach, though.