Pete Suderman and company are now quoting James Pethokoukis, he of “Dude Where’s My Recession” fame. Apparently Obamacare is to blame for a lack of job growth. Mind you, when Pethokoukis was writing his column in late 2008, this is what the jobs report looked like:
You have to actively work to be this stupid.
Warren Terra
Your chart is showing up kinda tiny, but I think you mean “the red part of this is what the jobs report looked like”.
Trollhattan
What use be facts in the face of a really swell meme?
These humps are just marking their time until President Ryan. That will be awesome.
Hill Dweller
The Republican Party is morally and intellectually bankrupt. They literally have no solutions for the problems facing this country.
Ben Franklin
LAT;
A better approach is to look at the employment situation broadly. Companies typically offer healthcare benefits when they have to in order to attract the workers they need. The greater the supply of job-seekers, the less that employers have to offer in terms of benefits. The same goes for hours — the bigger the pool of available workers, the more willing applicants are to accept less than full-time work. For proof, witness how the number of people working part time has jumped since the last recession began.
In that sense, the law’s mandates are kicking in at a bad time. The labor market is flush with job-seekers; in addition to the 11.7 million unemployed in March, 7.6 million people who want full-time jobs are stuck in part-time positions, and 18.7 million more are part-timers by choice. If employers drive away some workers by cutting hours to avoid having to provide health insurance, they can probably find plenty of replacements.
Once the economy returns to full employment, companies won’t have that kind of freedom, and workers who want full-time jobs will have more opportunities to land them. In other words, the cutbacks we’re seeing today may just be a temporary phenomenon that will fade as the economy grows.
The free-market wounds all heels.
scav
Hence the war on data and information gathering.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Ben Franklin:
Tone In DC
Just when I think these idjits can’t get any more venal, ignorant, violent and hubristic, they have to go and surprise me. Again.
Gerd Jemasz
If you want fuel for a Pethokoukis rant, check out Ricochet.com where he has a presold choir to agree with him. The looniness is…breathtaking.
Anton Sirius
@Ben Franklin: “Once the economy returns to full employment…”
Like it was back it the glory days of… umm…
the Conster
Yeah, portable health care will be the worst thing ever for the economy. No one ever stays in their jobs for the benefits or loses their home because of medical bills/
scav
OT information you can use when celebrating the importance of having different regulatory regimes in a marketplace of global exchange. Courtesy of the Chinese police: How to tell your Rat from your Mutton.. break for new link At least 900 arrests for “meat-related offenses” and hnoestly, horse is looking a little better to many.
raven
@Warren Terra: Uh, if you click on it. . .
Schlemizel
@Hill Dweller:
THAT IS SO NOT TRUE!
The GOP has solutions. They are the same 3 solutions no matter what the issue is:
lower taxes
stop spending on anything except DoD
end all regulation and oversight
Occasionally they might toss in MOER GUNZ but as the get more successful at pinning 1-3 on the nation #4 will get replaced
Patricia Kayden
“You have to actively work to be this stupid.”
And to think that all Americans are that stupid.
rikyrah
they have no real ideas. they have nothing but lies
Tonal Crow
@Hill Dweller:
But they’re absolutely flush with propaganda, and the money to disseminate it.
Just Some Fuckhead
@Hill Dweller:
You mean other than vouchers for purchasing guns free of taxes and regulation which are then used to shoot abortion doctors in the face? Something other than that?
Crusty Dem
Amazing how Obamacare, which barely started in 2010 was already exerting strong negative effects on jobs in mid-2009!! It’s so powerful it retroactively limits employment!!!
scav
@Crusty Dem: Tardis must be leaking again. . .
FlipYrWhig
@Schlemizel: I think it’s “stop spending on Those People.” Other kinds of spending are acceptable, and would be plentiful for everyone if not for Those People hoarding it all to sit on their butts being dependent. A self-declared libertarian at my semi-regular bar was explaining it that way just this week. Of course like a huge swath of libertarians, this one was a public employee. As the kids say, SMH.
Tonal Crow
@the Conster:
That Republicans oppose Obamacare given the reality that it’ll improve labor allocation shows that they’re in it purely for the Big Bosses, and couldn’t care less about the economy as a whole.
kindness
Maybe Second Amendment solutions are the answer. Who has a list of the top conservative donors?
(please don’t
shoot(ahh! OK instead) beat me because my sarcasm borders on Republican reality fetishs.)FlipYrWhig
@Just Some Fuckhead: you forgot the other option, which is using tax-free guns to shoot steak-fed layabouts before they become Welfare Thugs.
Tonal Crow
@Crusty Dem:
I have to explain *everything* to you libtards. Let me be really simple, ‘cuz it’s all you can understand: JOB CREATORS were AFRAID that NOBAMA would TAX THEM for his TAKEOVER of HEALTH CARE, so they STOPPED CREATING JOBS. Get it yet, libtard?
/typical Republican
MikeJ
Have you ever noticed that if a post title has been used before the url will have a number appended to the title, like “open-thread-672”.
I am shocked that “Glibertarian Circle Jerk” has never been used here before.
Yutsano
@Tonal Crow: Shades of UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!! I applaud thee sir!
Baud
The last two words in your title are redundant.
Trollhattan
Hmmm, FYWP is pulling teh fast one today. Not so much as “you’re in moderation, putz” mock note either.
TG Chicago
I agree with your larger points, but you make two errors in this post.
First, Pethokoukis wrote that column in late April 2008. While that still makes him laughably wrong, it’s not as amazingly, incredibly wrong as if it was actually late 2008.
Also, as he points out in the column, the standard definition of recession has nothing to do with job numbers. It’s GDP. He’s still wrong; you just put up a graph that doesn’t prove he’s wrong.
Tonal Crow
@Trollhattan:
Yeah, I get that crap pretty often, usually when I accidentally spell “sockialism” correctly, or when I include too many (~> 3) links.
Maybe if we buy JC a deluxe double-sized dog massager with built-in steak dispenser, groomer, and optional weapons-grade Tunchproofing, he’ll get someone to fix it.
gene108
@Anton Sirius:
The last few years of the Clinton Administration we were at full employment.
Even after the 2001 recession, unemployment was bouncing around 5%-6% during most of Bush, Jr’s terms in office, which is still much better than what we have today, because the 2001 recession was mostly focused in IT and telecom and didn’t spill over into the rest of the economy.
At least we aren’t Europe and entering into a triple dip recession.
Sly
@Anton Sirius:
We had as close as a major economy can get to full employment between 1943 and 1945, and there are estimates that unemployment dropped to within 2% in the late 1910s.
I guess, in purely theoretical terms, what the American economy needs to achieve maximum employment is World War III.
Tonal Crow
@Sly:
How about a full-bore War on Climate Change instead? The stakes (and potential economic benefits) are just as high, and the morality is a hell of a lot better.
Tonal Crow
@gene108:
As we’d have been — at best — had McPalin won in 2008.
Chris
@gene108:
“That’s because Europeans are socialists! It has nothing to do with those austerity measures behind the curtain!”
belieber
…but if they came out in favor of gay marriage and/or were against dronezzz then wrong way Cole would think they were very serious people making a good argument.
Howlin Wolfe
@Hill Dweller:
They literally have no solutions for the problems facing this country.
Sure they do, HD. Tax cuts! Spending cuts! That way the poors will die and there will be more munny for everybody who survives! They’ll have fewer serfs to do the menial labor, and to buy the shitty products they import from sweatshops abroad, but more $$$$! ‘Murica fuckyeah!
Patricia Kayden
@Tonal Crow: And how did that work in 2012? All those negative ads against President Obama did nothing for Romney.
Crusty Dem
@MikeJ:
Ain’t no circle jerk like a glibertarian circle jerk ’cause a glibertarian circle jerk is all about creating economic implausibilities that don’t really relate to the real world but acting like they apply to everything and everyone one.
Plus you get to jizz on a copy of Atlas Shrugged while feeling superior to everyone else.
DFH no.6
Latest New Yorker magazine (don’t have it handy) has a short article about employment today, particularly in regard to the cash-based “shadow” economy in the U.S.
Upshot of the claims in that article is that this “shadow” economy is quite large, the people in it who are taking cash payments for their work (like the vast majority of nannies, for instance) means that the actual unemployment rate is significantly lower (maybe more like 5%) than the official rate, and if the federal government received taxes from this “hidden” income the deficit would actually be trivial.
Maybe it’s just cuz I want it to be true, but it passed the smell test for me.
cckids
This is anecdata, but my daughter works for AMC Theaters & they have cut most everyone’s hours to under 30 per week, so that they won’t have to provide healthcare. And are actively blaming Obama for the cuts.
It is beyond infuriating. I know it would not have had a chance at passing, but I so wish they would completely decouple health coverage from employers. It just becomes another club to beat people with.
Tonal Crow
@Patricia Kayden:
Fortunately, they are not all-powerful, but you have to admit that Romney’s “42%” speech — and the patriot who recorded and leaked it — profoundly influenced the race. Had that not occurred, Romney would have had a much better chance of winning.
FlipYrWhig
@Crusty Dem: libertarians shouldn’t believe in circle jerks anyway. It creates dependency. Everyone must be responsible for jerking themselves!
Tonal Crow
@FlipYrWhig:
Right. Plus, circle jerks involve relinquishing selfishness for the greater orgasmicity, so they’re verboten under Rand’s Law.
Gex
@Anton Sirius: This becomes a tricky topic for the fiscal conservatives though doesn’t it? The fact of the matter is that our market economy CANNOT offer full employment to society.
So if the government and the Fed work together to deliberately make people unemployed to prevent inflation, it would be obvious that the unemployed *deserve* their government assistance.
If we all benefit from the market, and the market requires unemployment, then the unemployed should be HEROES to free market evangelists.
DFH no.6
@Tonal Crow:
From what I’ve read about uber-asshole Ayn Rand and her merry band of fascist cultists they could be pretty kinky, so I’m not so sure about that.
Steeplejack
@Tonal Crow:
Actually, socialism is okay now.
Tonal Crow
@Steeplejack: It’s OK for thee, but not for me. It definitely causes my messages to be silently discarded.
Crusty Dem
@FlipYrWhig:
@Tonal Crow:
I tend to think of this as the absolute proof against the glibertarian philosophy, they should be proud and strong and jerk alone. But they don’t. Maybe jerking to this requires help..
But a collective? I think it disproves their entire philosophy..
Plus, I bet they all chant “John Galt, John Galt, John Galt” right before blowing their load. Especially McMegan..
Tonal Crow
@Crusty Dem:
Don’t drive by McMegan’s place in the next few hours. The hazmat team’ll take awhile to clean up all the slippery stuff gushing from under the door-sill.
Mike G
@Hill Dweller:
This.
This statement should be carved in stone and featured on the banner of every blog.
Mnemosyne
@cckids:
IIRC, there are provisions in the law that prevent employers from doing that — if the part-time employees are putting in enough hours that, say, two of them “make” a full-timer, the employer still has to provide health insurance. So the only way AMC is going to be able to do that is by deliberately understaffing.
SFAW
@DFH no.6:
There has always been a shadow economy. Of course, I don’t know the relative size of today’s vs. past years’, might be a little bigger. But I doubt taxing it would cover the deficit.
(NB: the last statement is based on zero data. But it feels right, so it must be, etc., etc.)
Fluke bucket
@Hill Dweller: They don’t even have any ideas about how to repair their broken party much less tackle the real problems of an entire country. Their way has been tried. Their way has failed the majority of the citizens. So to hell with them and whatever they think, hope, feel or believe.
DFH no.6
@SFAW:
According to the study cited in the New Yorker article, the U.S. “shadow” economy reached $2 trillion in 2012, much larger than ever before.
I think you are probably right about taxing and the deficit – no doubt even catching all the potential income tax involved would not cover the deficit. Likely even saying it would make the deficit “trivial” is taking it too far.
However, if the “shadow” economy is anything close to $2 trillion, then it really is a big deal, and it may be the prime reason that consumer spending has grown significantly faster than the “official” economy. And it would also mean that unemployment is lower than the official number(s).
But I don’t think this allegedly large “shadow” economy is an unalloyed good thing at all. Some “under the table” cash work is ok, but not $2 trillion a year, for a number of reasons (missing tax receipts being only one).