PPP’s polling in the SC-1 special has swung ten points in Sanford’s favor to 47-46 in his favor:
Colbert Busch could certainly still win this race. Sanford remains unpopular and she’s run a strong campaign. But we said 2 weeks ago that if Sanford was going to win he needed to shift the focus away from him and toward Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi, and it appears he’s done that effectively enough to give him the momentum headed into election day.
I wouldn’t discount the possibility that running against a tough woman, and Jenny Sanford’s clear effort to torpedo his campaign, energized the South Carolina chapter of the he-man woman-haters club. There’s an ugly streak of misogyny in the anti-Pelosi rhetoric, and that dog whistle calls the same older, mostly white men who wouldn’t like a woman like Colbert Busch in power, and who think Jenny Sanford should just STFU.
Brother Machine Gun of Desirable Mindfulness (fka AWS)
If they elect this prick, they get what they deserve.
aimai
So its all about turnout, I guess. I think we are coming up on elections where there are no undecided voters–the only thing voters are undecided about is whether they will bother to vote at all, not about who or what represents their interests or their fantasies or whatever it is they vote on. We saw that in the special election for Markey and it was actually a topic covered extensively by the pollsters beforehand: no one shows up anymore and guesses about who they will vote for in a name brand election (people still guess when it comes to lower ticket races).
Punchy
Its South freaking Carolina. They aint gunna elect a female Dem, fer crissakes. Why anyone thinks Sanford’s adultery and lying and stalking would hurt him with the current GOP base just hasnt been paying attention. He’s a white male Republican. Thats ALL that matters in SC.
red dog
The amorality of Sanford will be a perfect reflection of the southern GOP.
gene108
Right-wing media’s ability to demonize Democratic leaders, like Pelosi, Ted Kennedy, etc. really creates a strategic advantage for Republican candidates.
OMG! You stood on a stage with Pelosi. You have San-Francisco-Gay-Gun-Grabbin’-Cooties, don’t elect this person, if you don’t want those cooties to infect our district.
As overwhelmingly unpopular as the Republican leadership is nationally in many blue states, the Left just can’t built the sort of knee-jerk negative reaction Northerners should have to the fact their Congresscritters are voting lock-step with the NeoConfederates.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@gene108: For example: Massachusetts. Why the race is only +4 for the Democrat just baffles me.
Butch
Just a rhetorical question, but what exactly do you have to do that’s bad enough or stupid enough to actually embarrass you out of the current GOP?
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@Butch: Marry a Democrat.
Poopyman
@Butch: Be atheist or Muslim(worst), or Jewish.
Butch
@Belafon (formerly anonevent): No. Mary Matalin.
kc
I hope ECB can pull this off. But if Sanford wins, at least I won’t have to read any more horseshit from ot of staters about how much better Charleston is than the rest if SC.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Fixed that for you.
Ivan Ivanovich Renko
@Butch: Be a Negro, and do anything other than bash other Negroes.
StringOnAStick
We’re about to wrap up the annual legislative session here in Colorado, and the dems have introduced a bill to send mail-in ballots to EVERYONE at every election, though still allow people to vote in person if they want to. I figure this is half way towards being completely like Oregon, where all ballots are mail-in only. Obviously, the rethugs are nearly apoplectic about this bill.
Currently we have a mix of mail-in and in-person; I’ve been voting by mail for decades (you have to ask, and then vote in every election or else you get designated as “inactive”). I would love to see the system go completely to mail-in only. Chances are good it will pass, but I’m not counting my chickens yet. I have no doubt this would change Colorado from purple to solidly blue.
ricky
Polling has swung in Sanford’s favor?
That is probably a good description of what is happening.
It very well may be that voters haven’t swung, the poll sampling has.
From PPP’s release:
Republicans are returning to the electorate? You mean more are answering the questions posed by your computerized voice on their phone? I guess old folks and white folks are returning to the electorate too, and black folks are getting depressed. Because the numbers in the sample are up or down for those groups respectively.
TriassicSands
Anyone curious about just how stupid voters in this SC district are — this is your answer — dumber than a gerbil and not nearly as cute.
grandpa john
@ricky: I also noted in the cross tabs that the age of voters was somewhat skewed.only 33% were under 45. the largest group was the over 65 at 36% which was more than the 18-45 groups. So yes I wold expect that turnout will determine the election
Ted & Hellen
Nancy Impeachment Is Off the Table Pelosi Smash.
Or something.
Julia Grey
>the largest group was the over 65 at 36% which was more than the 18-45 groups. So yes I wold expect that turnout will determine the election
Right. And those OLD white people love them some heartfelt repentance and hate uppity workin’ wimmens.
Plus, Busch’s supporters have been saturation-bombing the mistress issue, and people are starting to get turned off by the emphasis on it (although she herself has made some positive ads focusing on issues, as little as I like some of the things she’s said. A balanced budget amendment? Really, Elizabeth? Sigh…blue dog talk to get elected or actual blue dog intentions? Who knows? The only thing that’s certain is that she’s not going to be Boehner’s LAPdog.)
Meanwhile, Mark has stopped with the stupid stunts like debating posters on sidewalks, and has stayed more low key on the retail trail, letting his oh-so-sincere TV ads speak for him. And oh, he looks good in ’em. So sincere. So believable. So….so….trustworthy!
mononucleosis
@Brother Machine Gun of Desirable Mindfulness (fka AWS):
They already have Lindsay Graham, and nobody deserves that.