I hadn’t checked the Cook PVI on SC-1, where the special election is taking place tomorrow. But Zandar’s on it:
Cook PVI on SC-1: R+11.The fact that Colbert Busch is tied is amazing enough.
— Zandar (@ZandarVTS) May 6, 2013
That means that in a typical election, the district goes 11 points more for Republicans than the national average (in presidential elections over the previous two cycles), so in an election where the two parties split the national vote equally, the Republican presidential candidate would win SC-1 by about 22 points.
Anything over +5 one way or the other is considered a tough slog. If Colbert Busch pulls it out, it will be quite a victory. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.
Update. Didn’t mean to post on top of mistermix, but this is a natural follow-up anyway.