I hadn’t checked the Cook PVI on SC-1, where the special election is taking place tomorrow. But Zandar’s on it:
Cook PVI on SC-1: R+11.The fact that Colbert Busch is tied is amazing enough.
— Zandar (@ZandarVTS) May 6, 2013
That means that in a typical election, the district goes 11 points more for Republicans than the national average (in presidential elections over the previous two cycles), so in an election where the two parties split the national vote equally, the Republican presidential candidate would win SC-1 by about 22 points.
Anything over +5 one way or the other is considered a tough slog. If Colbert Busch pulls it out, it will be quite a victory. We’ll see what happens tomorrow.
Update. Didn’t mean to post on top of mistermix, but this is a natural follow-up anyway.
Patricia Kayden
If Sanford wins, the Repubs should stop calling themselves the “moral party” or the “family values party”. Sick of the hypocrisy.
aimai
Well, we can but cross our fingers for her. It would be sweet, sweet, sweet.
But even if Sanford wins you have to figure there will be a backlash after, composed of equal parts reality and buyer’s remorse. I know people who always pull the same lever and are yellow dogs for whichever party but they really hate, hate, hate, being forced to vote for someone they despise and Sanford is nothing if not despicable for his previous public defalcations and derelictions of duty. Also, its pretty clear this guy can’t be trusted either to keep his pants on, keep his vows, keep his hands out of the public till, or keep from embarrassing his state. If he gets in what is the over/under for him getting in massive trouble again?
That being said I think that congressman is, in its way, far less high profile than Governor. Even though you are in Washington and therefore on a national stage the truth is most people, once they’ve voted, can’t remember their own congressman’s name and have no idea what he does in power. And the graft is significantly more hidden. The only thing that will bring Sanford down once he becomes a congressman is his own ineradicable stupdity, his inability to please his constituents (viz the publication of people’s private phone numbers) and probably his ego which will lead him to regard the congressional seat as a stepping stone back up to real power as a Senator or as a Presidential candidate.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
This is why all posts should be submitted to the server which could release them in, say, 15 minute intervals.
DougJ
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
I wish people would lighten up about this, the irregularity of the posts is part of the fun.
Maude
@DougJ:
It doesn’t matter when a post is published. People comment on different posts all the time.
I’ll email John.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@DougJ: They only reason I don’t is because there are good, yet different points in the posts the two of you made, and in other posts that are completely different, they all deserve attention. Having posts come in one after the other like this causes some things just to fall into the abyss.
Since I don’t own the site, there’s not much I can do about it but bitch, but I hate seeing perfectly good topics get stomped on.
DougJ
@Belafon (formerly anonevent):
Personally, I like when there’s more than one post up on a different topic, by different front-pagers with different points of view…as long as they’re reasonably succinct
mistermix
@DougJ: I agree. This is a political blog, this race is the most interesting thing going on, and our two posts discussed two different aspects of the race.
Some would call that a good thing. Instead, we get bitching, moaning and whining.
JPL
What this site needs is more bitching and moaning.
Sanford might not win by a lot but he will win. It amazes that even with the failed policies that repubs offer, they still win in certain districts. I blame Obama.
eric
slow the eff down, all of you. Sanford is no more damaged than if he had been caught in a diaper with a hooker. No one could ever win a state wide race if that happened. oh wait. remember, so long as you are not a dem, you can be forgiven for your transgressions. he will be reborn as soon as he wins.
Redshirt
In a war, sometimes values must be “suspended”. Repukes believe they are in a war… with us. So anything goes – including the party of “family values” supporting liars and cheaters and scoundrels.
PsiFighter37
Just another sign that as long as you chat with God, you’re cool. Maybe we godless heathens should try it the next time an Anthony Weiner comes along.
Oh wait…Democratic voters have a stronger moral compass than that. And are a bit smarter, too.
Poopyman
I posted a little while ago on mistermix’s post that the only unforgivable sin in the eyes of the GOP is to be atheist, Muslim, or Jewish, pretty much in that order.
Feudalism Now!
Obviously we need a how has DougJ let us all down this week thread to vent our spleen. DougJ is worse than Hitler and Obummer combined and is part Sasquatch. There all done.
The idea that people will re-elect the most famous hiker of the Appalachian trail to any office is a shock. He used the state’s personnel to cover up his affair and that he was out of the country. Continually lying to the press and the people should be an automatic red flag, but using it to cover up other misdeeds should earn a DQ.
Belafon (formerly anonevent)
@PsiFighter37:
We have a stronger moral compass. When we fail to acknowledge that it interferes with our ability to govern, because our opponents have no compass, I’m pretty sure this negates our supposed intelligence advantage.
Brother Machine Gun of Desirable Mindfulness (fka AWS)
@mistermix: I don’t mind different FPers stomping on each other so much as you posting 15 posts in 15 minutes. Although it was getting tiring when AL and ABL seemed to have a spat going.
Mike in NC
@JPL:
Seconded. This is South Fucking Carolina, after all. Sanford will serve a few terms in the House and then run for the Senate and win that seat, Baby Jesus willing.
kc
@Feudalism Now!:
Not to mention the fact that he used the state’s money for his booty calls. But it’s okay, because PELOSI!
John M. Burt
Hey, people, quit pre-emptively mourning a loss that hasn’t happened yet. Have a little hope that sanity can win one.
Sanford’s debates with Cardboard Pelosi haven’t been all that good.
MomSense
@Feudalism Now!:
Well the only good thing about “hiking the Appalachian Trail” was that it replaced “bible study” (Ensign) as the euphemism for sexy time with your mistress.
Carl Nyberg
Mark Sanford has run a campaign that seems to be ineffective.
1. He asked people to call his mobile phone and then published their phone numbers? What was that about?
2. He wanted to make a point about special interest money and he posed with big wads of cash in each hand like he was a pimp or a drug dealer.
3. He went asking women on the street if they had a problem with him and his issues.
4. He debated a cut-out Nancy Pelosi.
Mark Sanford is a weird dude on top of having issues around his ex-wife.
FlipYrWhig
@DougJ: it’s fine when there are multiple front page posts up. But the loss of the “Recent Comments” feature IMHO has been killing threads older than the topmost.
ricky
@Mike in NC:
Yeah. And think how bad it would be if it was South “Fucking” Dakota or KKKansas.