Advocates pressure Republicans for immigration reform. Not real subtle:
The day after Senator Kelly Ayotte’s (R-NH) endorsement of the immigration reform bill gave the effort a momentum boost, the Huffington Post reports that Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL) is encouraging Republican Senators to hold back support for the bill until it takes on “a more conservative bent.”
Elise Foley and Sam Stein of the Huffington Post write:
Rubio had privately urged fellow Republican Sen. Kelly Ayotte (R-N.H.) to remain quiet about her support for immigration reform, in hopes that Senate negotiators would amend the bill’s border security measures to win her vote, according to three sources, including one Republican Senate aide.
Rubio ‘has not been telling them to vote no,’ said one Senate Democratic aide familiar with negotiations. ‘He has been apparently holding people back from declaring support for the bill, while at the same time saying the bill needs changes in order to garner support. My understanding is he told Sen. Ayotte’s office to hold back, but she didn’t care.’ A Republican Senate source confirmed Rubio’s lobbying of Ayotte, saying it was ‘not the first time’ Rubio had done something not aligned with the gang of eight’s interests.According to Frank Sharry, Executive Director of America’s Voice:
It’s one thing to look for ways to build more backers of your bill. It’s another thing to discourage your colleagues from publicly embracing it. Kelly Ayotte realized that the Republican Party is better served by being clear and public about where their leaders stand and not hiding in the backroom waiting for an amendment deal. But where are Senators Lisa Murkowski (R-AK), Mark Kirk (R-IL), Dean Heller (R-NV), Susan Collins (R-ME), Rob Portman (R-OH), and others who know support for immigration reform is smart policy and smart politics? Are they bound to Rubio’s pact of silence, or are they ready to stand up and lead the Party forward?
A new Latino Decisions poll of Latino voters highlights the deep hole Republican lawmakers are in when it comes to immigration reform – and how much it can benefit if it helps to pass it into law. Immigration reform is now the top issue the community wants addressed. Eighty percent are following it in the news. Eighty-one percent think immigration reform should combine border enforcement with a path to citizenship at the same time, versus 13% who favor a border security first strategy. Fifty-nine percent of Latino voters disapprove of the way Republicans are handling immigration in Congress, and by a margin of 4-1 they believe that if reform fails it will be the fault of the Republicans more than the Democrats. The good news for the GOP is that 50% of Latino voters have voted for Republican candidates in the past and 45% of Latino voters (including 44% of Latino Democrats) are more likely to support a Republican candidate who takes a “leadership” role in passing comprehensive immigration reform that includes a path to citizenship for undocumented immigrants. Most political experts believe the GOP needs to win 40% of the Latino vote to be electorally competitive in national elections.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I think we have passed Peak Rubio. I think Ayotte spends a lot of time with her finger in the wind, even if she hasn’t quite figured out how to read it.
Persia
Conservative media is claiming that Ayotte is ‘wavering’ and are trying to release the hounds on her.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They have five Senate Democrats identified to go after, too :)
Brother Machine Gun of Desirable Mindfulness (fka AWS)
FSM, I hate these gangs that seem to run the Senate.
Hunter Gathers
The Republicans in the House are going to kill the bill no matter what kind of pressure is applied by immigration reform advocates. Any GOPer in the House that votes for ‘amnesty’ will get primaried out of existence. They just passed a ‘fuck the DREAMers’ bill, for corn’s sake. What chance does an immigration bill that actually does anything about immigration have with these bigoted nihilists? The only way the bill gets out of the House is if the bill builds a moat along the Mexican-US border, fills the moat with frickin’ sharks with frickin’ laser beams on their frickin’ heads, and forces every Latino immigrant, legal or otherwise, to have ‘Dirty Lazy Spic’ tattooed on their foreheads. And a capital gains tax cut. Then it might pass.
c u n d gulag
About Rubio, I’ll just let quotes from two of America’s greatest philosophers, Foghorn Leghorn and Bugs Bunny, handle my thoughts:
“That boy’s about as sharp as a bowling ball.”
“What a dope! WHAT A MAROON!!!”
burnspbesq
Marco Rubio = Lucy Van Pelt, and his plan was always to pull the football away at the precise moment when he could do the most damage.
Corner Stone
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
The interesting thing about Ayotte, IMO, is that absolutely no one, even pol junkies, would know who she even was if she hadn’t been awkwardly traipsing around as the third wheel during BENGHAZI with Graham and Maverick.
It’s like now she’s some kind of power broker in the GOP.
Kay
@Hunter Gathers:
They think Boehner is going to pass it with Democrats. Break the Hastert Rule. The Hastert Suggestion.
The theory is Republicans can’t vote for it, but they secretly want it to pass.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
also, since this subject comes up a lot, the reason Republicans give a shit about immigration is because Latino-Americans vote. This isn’t about trying to persuade them to come to the polls, they’re doing it. The only way to get politicians to react to something is to go to the polls. The conversation among activists is too often backwards: “How do Dems get young people/ women/ minorities to the polls?” The votes have to come before the pols will react.
Corner Stone
@c u n d gulag:
Foghorn is really a kind of despicable character if you think about it. Deadbeat Dad who probably left kids across half the South. Never acknowledging them or giving a damn about their welfare, even as they were inevitably led to the chopping block.
“I say, I say, excuuuuse me son! But you look kind of familiar.”
schrodinger's cat
Conservative media is against it by and large, including somewhat sane National Review. I am not too hopeful.
Kay
You can watch them vote to begin debate live here, which will be very exciting
Litlebritdifrnt
From the Guardian liveblog
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2013/jun/11/us-senate-immigration-reform-live
c u n d gulag
@Corner Stone:
HA!
I never though of him like that!!!
Forum Transmitted Disease
@Kay: Allah does not love me so much. That would be the most disastrous outcome possible for the GOP.
Hunter Gathers
@Kay: I don’t think there are enough votes to get any bill out of the House with any kind of ‘amnesty’ provisions. That issue is radioactive among GOP primary voters. A hand full of Republicans may vote for it, but there will be enough ConservaDem desertions to kill it. I don’t buy that they want a bill to pass either. They’d rather kill it and blame it on Obama. It’s not like the press is going to tell anybody that the GOP killed it. It was all Obama’s fault, along with those hyper-partisan Latinos who refuse to channel their inner Burke and vote for the GOP because Freedom.
SatanicPanic
I just read earlier on Gawker that Marco Rubio is pushing for an English language requirement for permanent residency. That’s going to be a real winner. I would link it, but I can’t read HTML
cleek
Do Not Gaze Upon The Sausage Making.
Butch
Back when I was working for a publication that covered environmental issues a colleague coined the phrase “Gang of Six” to describe the group of congresscritters working to reauthorize the Clean Air Act, and the congresscritters themselves adopted the name. The phrase somehow stuck in the political parlance and now we have a gang of some number or other working on every major bill. I’ve really come to dislike these semi-secret cabals.
Perhaps OT.
Kay
@Hunter Gathers:
I think I disagree. Both parties are in a bind on this, and the longer it stays alive the more the pressure grows. The reform advocates are in a very good leverage position, IMO. They’ve got both parties scared. They have some electoral clout after 2012 and they are going to use it. I think it’s great, BTW, that they use it. It’s what’s supposed to happen.
Litlebritdifrnt
Kind of OT but this once again shows what fucking morons the people who run Huffpo’s twitter feed are:
Guess what the video shows? POTUS laughing about it.
Higgs Boson's Mate
This is too rich. The Hispanic poster boy with presidential aspirations realizes that he has to tack hard to starboard lest he get trashed in the 2016 primaries by one of the usual suspects. So he advocates against the immigration bill on nebulous grounds. It’s going to take years to undo the Rs’ stranglehold on the House. OTOH they’ve painted themselves into a corner for national office.
Litlebritdifrnt
Final vote on cloture 82-15 in favor.
Kay
@Litlebritdifrnt:
It’s bizarre. I listened to the speech in the car (partway). He was just as loose as could be. The whole room was laughing. I didn’t see anyone, but they were really laughing.
Hunter Gathers
@Kay: That’s what was said about Gun Control. If a pile of dead children can’t get a less than modest set of reforms passed, millions of pissed off non-white voters won’t be able to either. I would love to be proven wrong.
schrodinger's cat
@Hunter Gathers: What is working in the favor of immigration reform is that the business interests that control the GOP want it to pass. The outcome of this fight will show who really controls the GOP.
Kay
@Hunter Gathers:
Oh, sure. We’ll see. I don’t know, obviously, but I will take the bet! :)
I think the immigration reform people are very committed and they’ve been at it a while. A LONG while. They went thru this with Bush, and failed. That bill sort of sucked, IMO, so in a way I’m glad they failed. They’ll do better this time around.
I thought the perception that gun control people “failed” was discouraging to them and, frankly, unrealistic. The NRA has a 20 year head start. Democrats ran from gun control for 20 years. It’s going to take a while to turn that around.
jibeaux
@Hunter Gathers: I dislike having to use gallows humor here, but dead children don’t vote. Your point is well taken, but immigration is different from other issues for which you could say depressingly the same thing (if millions of gallons of oil spilling into the Gulf every day can’t garner modest climate control regulation, nothing will, etc.) in that you are talking about a market of lots of lots of people who, eventually, at least some of whom will be able to vote. Every month more kids who were born here to illegal immigrant parents turn 18, so even if nothing at all happens legislatively, it will change through time. Either way, there will be new voters and this will be their #1 issue. The pressure is demographic.
Forum Transmitted Disease
@Litlebritdifrnt: Oh, they aren’t morons. They have a very specific agenda, and it isn’t “reporting the truth”.
ranchandsyrup
This is good news for
John McCainRand Paul. Rinse and repeat. Always repeat.Kay
@jibeaux:
I think one has to credit their activists, too. They come out.
Ash Can
Marco’s a real profile in courage, isn’t he? On the one hand, I think it’s impossible for him to get the GOP presidential nomination in 2016 because there’s no way the party honchos will want a thumbsucker like this as the face of the GOP. On the other, though, this is the party that ignored presidential polling all the way through the 2012 campaign and convinced itself that its own made-up poll results were correct because they felt that way. So it’s possible that by 2016 the party will be at the stage where it’s convinced that “people aren’t laughing at us, they’re laughing with us,” and will go ahead and nominate someone flat-out hilarious.
gene108
@Forum Transmitted Disease:
Not really.
The knuckle draggers, who who need to vote against it can, while those in districts, where they won’t face a right-wing challenger for voting for it can do for it to pass.
Democrats by and large will be all in for it to pass.
Republicans can then say they helped making all the Mexicans legal and work on courting the Mexican vote.
Forum Transmitted Disease
@Ash Can: I’m hoping for a repeat run of Sick Rick and The Frothy Discharge. That guy knows how to throw the red meat.
Mike in NC
@Corner Stone: Like a Strom Thurmond, but with feathers, then?
? Martin
@Kay:
And Boehner will. He’s not going to send the national GOP down the same path as California’s GOP just to appease the Tea Party. He knows it’s time to take the medicine.
Forum Transmitted Disease
@gene108: They can say it all they want. They’ll say it even if it doesn’t pass. But if Boner has to enlist the Democrats to drag this thing across the finish line, the Hispanics of America will know which party got it done, and it is not going to be the GOP.
They have to own this to win the issue, and they don’t. Hell, even if they did, the steaming piles of racist rhetoric from the primary challengers in 2014 – and every single Republican who votes for this will have a well-funded and revoltingly vocal primary challenger next year – will destroy any goodwill that this vote brings them.
? Martin
@gene108:
Which is where the plan falls apart. They assume that Mexicans are stupid. They aren’t stupid. They’ll see straight through this and further punish the GOP for refusing to come through even when it was obvious it would pass.
gene108
@Kay:
I think a lot has to do with the intensity of people’s support.
A gun-nut will vote someone out, who supports any kind of gun-control.
People who thought expanded background checks were/are a good idea, post-Sandyhook, may or may not show up and vote, if a gun-control bill doesn’t pass.
Also, there are groups like Gun Owners of America that exist, because many pro-gun folks think the NRA are a bunch of sissies, who do not do enough to protect their 2nd Amendment rights.
The asymmetry of intensity is a big issue for a lot of liberal initiatives. People like them, but they aren’t going to get up and go nuts if the minimum wage isn’t increased, gun-control bills aren’t passed or immigration reform fails (except Latinos), but there are plenty of single-issue groups with supporters, who will work very hard and turn out to vote to defeat liberal measures.
Villago Delenda Est
The vile racist scum that are the teatards have the GOP by the short hairs, and are not letting go.
Villago Delenda Est
@? Martin:
They have the same perception dysfunction with Obama.
PeakVT
@Brother Machine Gun of Desirable Mindfulness (fka AWS): It’s funny how much the media likes “gangs” when they are composed of rich white men.
gene108
@Forum Transmitted Disease:
I don’t think so.
I live in a pretty solid Republican district, but it’s in New Jersey. A firebreathing Tea Party guy would lose the district. But a Republican, who keeps a low profile and doesn’t come across like a nut job, pretty much has a job for life.
There are probably other Republicans in similar districts, where you can’t go further right than the incumbent and hope to keep the seat.
That’ll undercut primary challenges and make it safe for mabye 20%-30% of the GOP to vote for it.
@? Martin:
Logical consistency isn’t a GOP strong point. I fully expect them to (try to) take credit for anything that is successful and impresses voters.
At some level it will stop the bleeding the GOP has experienced with Latino voters, since Bush, Jr. got 40% of the Latino vote in 2004.
From there they can work on rebuilding whatever it is they need to, to impress the Latino voters, since immigration matters would have largely been settled.
Whether the Mexican community will forgive them or not is another matter, but immigration reform will give the GOP some breathing space to try and impress voters on other issues.
burnspbesq
@Corner Stone:
Only you would go there and be that kind of humorless.
Was Susan Brownmiller your idol when you were a wee lass?
Chris
@Litlebritdifrnt:
WRT President Obama, it really is amazing how many people feel the need to 1) make mountains out of molehills (you would THINK Benghazigate, IRSgate, APgate and Snowdengate would be enough material to keep them occupied. And you would be wrong) and 2) lie about them no matter how easily disprovable they are.
I could say I fully expected the extent to which the country would lose its shit at the fact of a black president, but I’d be lying. God damn and holy Hannah.
schrodinger's cat
The last attempt at immigration reform passed the Senate but not the House. We may be headed for the same this time.
IowaOldLady
This whole thing is so clearly about keeping out the brown people who talk funny. My father was Canadian. He married my mother after WWII and thereafter became a US citizen with no fuss or bother that I remember. I don’t know how long it took, but I’ll bet it wasn’t any 10 years. But then, he was white and spoke English.
Chris
@gene108:
The problem is, those districts where moderate Republicans can expect to survive primary challenges are getting fewer and fewer, as we saw in 2010 when the Republican Parties of several Northeastern states insisted on running extremist candidates with no chance of winning because being in tune with the national party was more important than being in tune with the residents who’re, y’know, electing you.
The Republican Party is not just thoroughly radicalized on a national level, but on a domestic level, even in the most moderate of states, where most Republican voters insist on right wing fanatics no matter how much it’ll shrink the party.
I do agree, though, that the “oppose legislation, let the Democrats pass it for you, then take credit for it when talking to non-right-wing fanatics” has been one of their MOs for decades.
Todd
The ticket will consist of Frothy Discharge and Squirrel Hair. Bank on it.
It’ll be a Goldwater level of shellacking, and they’ll be wondering why eight years of total asshole behavior has made them so electorally toxic.
Todd
@Chris:
More purges and more purity, dammit – conservatism requires the very best.
BTW, I’m seeing the “Democrats opposed the Civil Rights Act” trope again in wingnut circles. They’re recycling stuff again and getting nervous.
My line to folks has long been that it was conservatives that justified and went to war to promote and maintain slavery, it was conservatives that persisted in legal segregation and bias, and conservatives that opposed womens’ sufferage and the Civil Rights Act. Put the onus where it should be – make the phrase “Ah’m a Conservative” the filthiest phrase in the political lexicon.
nineone
@Litlebritdifrnt: I especially liked the part where Obama/Satan consumed the still beating heart of the offender without blinking an eye.
Those wily NegroDemons….
ranchandsyrup
Even a D landslide in the 2014 elections will not break the fever of “We don’t have to sacrifice our principles, we just need better messaging”.
MikeJ
Political Wire:
I don’t think they’re worried about Obama torpedoing compromise, I think they’re afraid of him getting credit. And frankly if there was any compromise so vile that even Obama couldn’t go along with it, better to scuttle the whole thing.
Alex S.
@Brother Machine Gun of Desirable Mindfulness (fka AWS):
I think they are a product of the 60-vote majority Senate. Before that, 50 votes were enough because 50 votes was the majority. Now the majority needs some minority votes so gangs are the only way to get anything passed.
@Litlebritdifrnt:
The non-unionized companies of their states might be anticipating a lot of new minimum wage workers.
dollared
@MikeJ: They should scuttle it now anyway. If it’s acceptable to a majority of this Senate, it obviously is a terrible deal for working Americans. We have seen this movie before.
Alex S.
@MikeJ:
Yes, sadly the Republicans see everything through the tactical lens, not the strategic one. In the short term Obama will get the credit, yes, but if the Republicans showed some good will, some effort, they might heal their relationship with the hispanic community. But no, they are destroying their symbol of outreach (Or is Rubio self-destructing?).
Corner Stone
@MikeJ: It’s interesting to me that Wikipedia indicates President Obama has vetoed 2 bills in his term(s).
Geoduck
@Todd:
OK, I can figure out FD, but: “Squirrel Hair”? Trump?
Chris
@Todd:
That’s another big problem for them. They’re used to voters who respond to dog whistles and culture war bullshit, for whom no matter how badly you fuck up in office, all you need to do is blow the whistle louder and they’ll forgive you. Which has worked out pretty well for them for the last half century or so, but the voters of today (especially the nonwhite ones) increasingly expect results, not cultural bullshit.
Republicans aren’t compensating for this because they’re not even aware of it. They know there’s a growing mass of nonwhite voters who mostly vote for the Democrats, but they assume these voters are just like theirs and only come to the Democrats because the Democrats push their tribal buttons. And they assume that all they have to do is find the right frequency on their dog whistles (“DID YOU KNOW DEMOCRATS WERE AGAINST CIVIL RIGHTS BRAH?”) for them to come running. It doesn’t even occur to them that these voters might simply expect them to do their jobs.
Higgs Boson's Mate
@Alex S.:
I believe that you’re right. Now, my question is this: in the age of the short attention span might it not be better if our Dems thought a bit more about tactics and a bit less about strategy? Strategy is tedious and it sucks for messaging.
Todd
@Geoduck:
Rand Paul, my junior senator(spit).
Lurking Canadian
@Forum Transmitted Disease: Vocal opponent, and foully racist to be sure, but why well funded? Aren’t the deep pockets types all in favour of increased immigration, especially of the “temporary guest worker” variety?
Lurking Canadian
@Higgs Boson’s Mate: What really matters is logistics.
Frankensteinbeck
@Lurking Canadian:
No. Remember that the REALLY deep pockets belong to crazies like the Kochs. Tea Party Dementia goes all the way to the top, and rich people are as divided as poor people in their political positions.
patroclus
@Litlebritdifrnt: 82 votes is very very good, but of course, this wasn’t cloture for ending debate or cloture for proceeding to conference or cloture to debate a conference report or cloture to end debate on the conference bill. In the modern Senate, there are at least 4 more cloture votes where 60 votes are needed and that’s not even considering the House, which is breaking up the bill into 4 parts, the failure of any of which will probably tank the whole effort. Obama, when he’s not reading my e-mails, has said that he wants a bill by the end of the summer; Boehner is saying the end of the year. We’ll see, but today was a good day.
In my view, this is the most important bill of the Session by far.