From what I’ve read (h/t reader Alexandra), the opposition party in the UK typically amasses a very large lead in advance of an election where the ruling party is defeated, so Labour’s current six-or-so point lead means very little: Cameron could easily win again in 2015.
Incomes will be £1,520 lower in real terms in 2015 than in 2010, according to Labour analysis of Office for Budget Responsibility forecasts.
Cameron has overseen 35 consecutive months of falling real wages, more than any other prime minister on record, and spending power has dropped in every month but one under coalition rule as price rises outstrip wage increases.
Matt
One party is for the rich to fuck you publicly, the other is for the rich to fuck you quietly behind closed doors, people probably are having trouble voting for two sets of entitled douchebags….the opportunity for an Obama rags to riches story in the UK seems extremely hard to foresee.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Good news for conservatives, as always?
Probably this question explains this
Asked more specifically about the state of the economy, 25% think the economy is still getting worse, 34% that it has stopped getting worse but there are no signs of recovery yet. 30% now think there are signs of recovery and another 5% think we are on the way to full recovery. This is a big shift from when YouGov last asked the question in April, when only 14% thought there were any signs of recovery. Asked how much they think the government have contributed to any economic recovery, 32% of people think the government’s actions have helped the economy recover, 23% that they made little difference, 36% that they made things worse.
2liberal
OT: who would like a really big pet?
LINK
schrodinger's cat
Does the upper class twit Cameron, pretend to be an ordinary bloke like our politicians do when they are campaigning?
Alexandra
I don’t have the following info to hand, but from reading around, the Conservative party need about a 3-5% lead in the popular vote to actually win a majority, due to how the various seats work. Kinda like how running up a huge score in the South isn’t going to help Republicans in a presidential election… so Cameron has a problem on his hands, given how they only gathered about 32% of the vote last time around. It’s not common for a party to increase their share of the vote after one term. What’s more, they’re being squeezed from the right by UKIP, our own version of the Tea Party, who are organised enough to have created their own party.
There are a few hysterical wobbles going on right now over the Labour party in the UK. No-one seems to remember that it’s very rare for a party to regain power after only term out of office. Remember the shrieking of advice from the greek chorus over at The Great Orange Satan to Obama in the summer of 2008?
That’s kinda what it’s like right now.
Hawes
Cameron wouldn’t be PM without the Lib Dems. And that coalition won’t survive 2015.
NonyNony
@2liberal:
Just saw that one debunked on my snopes RSS feed earlier today:
LINK.
It was a legit plea, but it’s from over 2 years ago and the horses all got adopted. So fret not.
jamick6000
Ed Balls
Belafon
Obama being president means that for some, there’s an unwelcome black man in their house nearly every day on the news. And racism isn’t just isolated to the South, there have always just been more targets there.
Seanly
I guess the beatings did result in an increase in moral? Now we can expect more beatings here! Hooray!
R-Jud
@schrodinger’s cat: He does, but fails. Nobody likes him. But they like Ed Miliband even less (when they’re not mistaking him for his brother, David).
Belafon
@Belafon: Sorry, wrong thread.
Capri
@2liberal:
There are lots and lots of options for the horses mentioned in that facebook post.
There are over 100 horse rescue organizations in Ohio alone.
equinenow.com/ohiorescue.htm
In addition, there are organizations dedicated to re-training and re-homing race horses and the Ohio Hooved Animal Humane Society.
There is no horse slaughter in the US right now, and it is technically illegal to ship a horse to Canada or Mexico for slaughter. Many horses are brought into those countries as “riders” and eventually end up on someone’s plate, but it’s not like a horse taken to the local auction barn is likely to end up there.
Even an un-registered Thoroughbred is a valuable horse. They are usually snapped up by folks looking for hunter/jumper or other sport horse type pursuits. Thoroughbred broodmares can be crossed with any number of different breeds to produce athletic babies. So they are desirable animals.
Finally, the dog/cat sensibility of someone saying “Free to a good home” isn’t very consistent with how many if not most horse owners would talk about their animals. Altogether, I’d suspect some sort of scam here.
Tom Levenson
@R-Jud: Also, to the extent that there remains anti-Semitism in the UK (and…) Miliband has to deal with that sea-anchor as well.
raven
@Capri:
On Fate of Wild Horses, Stars and Indians Spar
Alexandra
@Tom Levenson: I haven’t seen that it’s an issue at all. Far more people seem to be put off his nasal voice, which isn’t that bad, but you know how perceptions harden.
What annoys me is that The Guardian are turning their guns on the party who they would supposedly support, instead of the Tories, reinforcing conservative frames. Sound familiar?
I swear, progressives/liberals/whathaveyou make me ill sometimes with their fainting couches.
drkrick
Add to that the fact that the Conservatives haven’t gotten the UK into a costly and unnecessary war lately and it should be no mystery why voters aren’t falling all over themselves to return Labor to power.
Brandon
@jamick6000: This.
1.bp.blogspot.com/-lj9LO8KLpVs/UWwsW_XdOiI/AAAAAAAAAsg/MWFmnfyFtP8/s320/Ed+Balls+tweet.jpg
dedc79
British conservatives haven’t gone about systematically alienating women, gays and ethnic minorities the way their American counterparts have.
BGinCHI
Keep Calm
&
Kiss Your Ass Goodbye
El Cruzado
@NonyNony: Which is why everything on the Internet should be properly datestamped.
I swear if I had ever been involved in a gamma ray accident I would destroy half the city every time I find an Internet news article without a clearly visible date.
Villago Delenda Est
@El Cruzado:
“You don’t want to see me when I’m angry.”
Heliopause
You do remember that the Labour government was fully complicit in the Iraq invasion and in power when the financial crisis hit, right? I realize that was a very long time ago, but still…
Roger Moore
@El Cruzado:
Some fairly basic meme theory shows why attempts to do this are doomed to failure. Unless you can somehow bake it into the most basic depths of the system, people will create copies that accidentally or deliberately omit the date stamp, and those inaccurate copies will continue to replicate when the datestamped versions do not.
Amir Khalid
@Villago Delenda Est:
No, no, no. It’s “Mr. McGee, don’t make me angry. You won’t like me when I’m angry.”
lamh36
OT, but Doug J, I’m just realizing that you hadn’t been posting for a bit all of a sudden I saw beaucoup post by you and I was like oh yeah…lol.
BTW looking forward to you next “music” thread. I know it’s a bunch of ole fogies here at BJ, but I’ll place a request for some ole skook hip-hop, ya know since “hip-hop” turns 40 this year (I’m still not quite sure how they calculate that though…lol).
Here’s my contribution: The Sugarhill Gang – Rapper’s Delight
—OK BACK TO YOUR REGULARLY SCHEDULED PROGRAMMING —
Alien Radio
@dedc79: Which is why they’ve got The telegraph fluffing UKIP and agitating for more brutality and nastiness from the tory party or they’ll replace Dave with Boris and Nigel.
Doug Milhous J
@lamh36:
Maybe I’ll put up Left My Wallet in El Segundo if that counts as old school. Heard it on the radio a few months ago and had forgot how much I loved it.
lamh36
@Doug Milhous J: lol. Tribe Called Quest is the classiest of ole skool. Classic is classic, and El Segundo is def a classic.
I’m partial to Can I Kick It
? Martin
@lamh36:
hiphopandpolitics.com/2013/08/09/kool-herc-we-are-still-here-on-the-block-as-hip-hop-turns-40-this-w…
lamh36
@? Martin: Ahhh, I was wondering how they came up with that number
Phil Perspective
@Alexandra: You forget one other thing. Milliband floated a proposal to basically tell the actual unions to pound sand. So yeah, Labour is acting just like the Democrats here. You can imagine how well that went in the U.K.
Phil Perspective
@dedc79: You haven’t been paying attention lately then!!
sdhays
@Heliopause: Let’s be honest. That has more to do with who is the White House than who is in Downing Street. And I recall the Tories being more supportive than not; didn’t Blair sometimes need some support from the opposition in order to get past dissatisfaction in his own back bench? Or did I dream that?
Capri
@raven: Horse slaughter is a very contentious issue no doubt. There are also groups in Montana and Wyoming trying to get a horse facility up and running. The fact is that right now, no horse is being killed in the US for human consumption. While horse slaughter isn’t illegal per se, there is no way to legally slaughter a horse as there are no approved facilities. (Sort of like the availability of abortion providers in many states).
It’s the realists vs. idealists in many ways. Horses eat a lot – of native grasslands when they are in too high a density on rangeland – so you have to do something with them rather than let them starve. But the notion of killing and eating horses is repugnant to a lot of Americans. Bernie Rolling said it best: “The horse only second to the dog as a sacred cow in American culture.”
Heliopause
@sdhays:
British voters don’t get to vote for who’s in the White House.
? Martin
@lamh36: I’m not sure that’s a reasonable day to point to, as everyone has different notions of what was key to hip hop (I always think of hip hop as street music, so what was happening in a club isn’t necessarily that key), but that’s what they’re pointing to.
Tony J
Short version, Milliband’s Labour Party is punching to its left while Cameron’s Tories are running scared of their right. It’s like the 1990’s all over again without the blissed-out party tunes and huggy-druggie sub-culture.
Long version – If one were given to believing that Milliband had a fraction of Obama’s political sense you could – almost – imagine that he’s playing 11th-D chess and waiting for the Tories to stumble into the embrace of their own version of the Teabaggers in the hunt for temporarily lost-to-UKIP voters and in-so-doing vacate the electable centre, but a) He’s not that smart or confident, b) the centre got us into this mess in the first place, and c) this is Britain in a nasty recession after more than a decade of ‘Fear the Brown’ propaganda from the Murdoch Media and its imitators, there’s a neo-racist vote out there if the Tories want it and things are going to get really messed up before they get better.
Suffern ACE
OT, but was watching about 5 minutes of CNN Bulger “any minute now we’ll get a verdict” covereage today and noted that the live was coming from a traffic chopper circling over the court house. I was just wondering if there was just some tradition of announcing a verdict with a signal flare or black smoke that I’ve been missing. Otherwise, what were they expecting a verdict from 1,500 feet to look like?
sdhays
@Heliopause: Sort of my point. Punishing Labour for that by supporting the Tories doesn’t really get you anywhere, unfortunately.
Now, Labour crapping on labour, well… what do they expect?
Roger Moore
@sdhays:
And apparently neither does supporting the Liberal Democrats.
James E. Powell
I don’t get it either. But then, I don’t get why so many less-than-wealthy Americans accept the policy argument that tax cuts for the rich and deregulation will produce 1950s like prosperity. We’ve been doing that at the federal and state level for thirty years and it has never produced anything good for the less-than-wealthy.
I don’t get it.
2liberal
@NonyNony:
ouch – i just spotted it on facebook and posted it, thinking this is a very pet-friendly site. Thanks for correcting the record.
And I apologize for going OT —–
mai naem
@schrodinger’s cat: Just in case you didn’t know, your nom de plume has been celebrated today with a google doodle.
My sis just returned from the UK. She said the stupid has infected the Brits like the Teabaggers have infected Americans.
Heliopause
@sdhays:
I guess I just don’t understand your point. Doug wondered aloud how it’s even possible for the Conservatives to win an election and to me the answer is pretty blindingly obvious. If you are making a statement about who the British should vote for, that’s a different question.
Davis X. Machina
Oh dear. Time for more hoodie-wearing, skunk-smoking, asylum-seeking, transgendered Muslim home invasion stories in the Daily Mail, I guess.
TheMightyTrowel
@mai naem: A large part of the British populace is hopeless mired in xenophobia and racism. This is the country of the Daily Nazi and the Sun, you know. I admire Labour for trying not to appeal to the resentments of the white working class, but that’s why they’re only 6 points ahead not 20.
In my experience, Brits feel totally alienated from their government – it’s become more and more apparent that the majority of the country and the majority of the politicians have experienced the past 5 years in totally different ways. I think there’s a huge disconnect between voters and pols. The proportion of people who vote has dropped precipitously since the 80s and the fact that no party won a majority last election (which will probably happen again) is another sign. Unless there’s radical change, I’m betting on a UKIP/Tory/LibDem rump coalition.
schrodinger's cat
@mai naem: I did see that. Thanks!
Mandalay
@Tom Levenson:
Well that is a pretty strong allegation, wrapped up in very lawyerly wording.
Do you have a shred of evidence for that claim, or did you just think it would be irresponsible not to speculate?
Davis X. Machina
@TheMightyTrowel: I see no reason why Nigel Farage (bloody UKIP can’t even spell ‘Falange’ right…) should be denied the same opportunity that Nick Clegg got to sell his polticial patrimony, such as it is, for a mess of pottage.
TheMightyTrowel
@Davis X. Machina: I always think of this episode of Have I got News for You! in which they call him Niggle Faridge on purpose the whole time. It’s a small nasty childish jibe, but it suits the man.
pseudonymous in nc
Um, Cameron didn’t actually win. That’s why there’s a coalition. Now, granted, the Lib Dems have gained nothing but cabinet positions from the deal, and will probably be wiped out in 2015, but it is worth remembering that the 2010 benchmark for the Tories is “not enough to win”. And with the collapse of the plan to reduce the Commons and redraw boundaries, they’re fighting the same seats again.
Yes, there’ll be a Kipper element, and Britain (particularly England) in 2013 feels like a bitter, xenophobic, paranoid country thanks to the government’s kow-towing to the Kipper/Daily M**l fringe, but 2015 is still two years away.
I Heart Breitbartbees
Here’s a question for those familiar with a land full of people who are overly fond of curries, Citrus latifolia, and tea. Is the UKIP just a more socially acceptable place for people who would otherwise be part of the BNP?
snarkyspice
@I Heart Breitbartbees:
Some of their voters are BNP types, but a lot are not. Some are just alienated, struggling financially, not particularly politically informed, and easily manipulated by right-wing media. A bit like the average elderly Fox News viewer.
I live in a beautiful part of England, in a nice home, surrounded by countryside to die for and with lovely neighbours. But when I venture into the nearby cities, I am always a little shocked by the conditions some people are living in. You see some of these places and you understand why people feel alienated from the major parties.
NickT
@Tom Levenson:
I read the British political press on a regular basis and know a good number of people in the UK – and I have never heard Miliband’s Jewish heritage mentioned one way or the other. Your suggestion is absolute hogwash.
Paul in KY
@lamh36: Y’all need to kick it with some ‘Arrested Development’. The thinking man;s rappers.
Maybe that Tennesssee song or Mr. Wendel…