I don’t believe there’s anything the Republican party could do that could hurt them that much in the short term. If Ted Cruz got a hold of his own nuke and launched it at San Francisco, the Fox/Limbaugh crowd would applaud, the GOP establishment would tsk-tsk ineffectually, Charles Lane would write it was no worse than the time Paul McCartney made fun of W for being a dunce, and the polls would only move against Republicans by a few points at most.
So, in terms of the 2014 election, the government shutdown is indeed a big nothing:
The former is definitely true. Republicans clearly took more blame for the shutdowns 17 years ago. Today, though, the “margin of blame” is 16pt smaller – with Americans surveyed only 3pt more likely to blame congressional Republicans than the president (the margin was 19pt in 1995-96). That suggests that Republicans are much in better shape now than they were then.
But even if the polling today did look like 1995-96, I would argue that this looming shutdown will offer nowhere such a clear win for Obama and the Democrats as it did for Clinton. The 1996 elections didn’t differ at all from what you’d expect – given the state of the economy and the outcomes of congressional elections in presidential years when there is split government.
[….]Indeed, only 10% of Americans said the government shutdown was their greatest reservation about Republicans, following the 1996 vote, per a post-election poll. The exit polls didn’t even ask about it.
A shutdown will harden anti-Republican attitudes among younger and better-informed voters, and that’s a bad thing for the GOP long term. But it won’t mean shit for 2014.
Alexandra
2014: the fix is in.
Things to stay much as they are… except Hillary drumbeats to be even louder and Chris Christie’s waistline to slowly shrink.
Hunter Gathers
White voters are the Honey Badgers of politics. They just don’t give a fuck.
schrodinger's cat
So we are now lamenting things even before they happen?
Chyron HR
Hah, “against”. Good one.
schrodinger's cat
Defeatism, its what’s for lunch.
amk
who the fuck is this enten guy and why are the bj fp’ers so in lurv with him?
Doug Milhous J
@schrodinger’s cat:
Not defeatism, the long game.
We will ultimately vanquish the Republican party precisely because they get away with so many things for now.
JMG
The Republican Party always wins no matter what they do!!! That’s fretting liberal click-whoring of a high order. Little wonder the post you cited was in the Guardian.
The Other Chuck
Basically, the electorate is going to get used to government shutdowns as part of routine business. If that’s not “decline and fall” material right there I don’t know what is.
askew
I think you are dead wrong on this. The closest comparison is the government shutdown during Clinton’s presidency. It killed Republicans and revitalized Clinton. I think the government shutdown here would be a huge bonanza for the Democrats in 2014. At this point, the Republicans are in danger of losing the business interests whose bottomlines are being hurt by the GOP’s crazy tactics on a national and state level. The Chamber of Commerce has been pleading with the GOP to stop playing with the economy and to pass immigration reform. If they shut down the government, don’t be surprised to see the Chamber spending less money in 2014 elections for GOP or even spending some money on bluedog Dems.
I think your pessimism is exactly what the media wants Democrats to feel though. If you feel it is hopeless, you won’t organize or vote in the midterms which is a win for the GOP. And let’s face it, Democratic voters look to any excuse to not vote.
The Ancient Randonneur
I blame you. After all you are quite mean AND you write about Jacobins. Harumph. Anyone seen the totebag I left here yesterday?
schrodinger's cat
@Doug Milhous J: We don’t know whether they will get away with it. Polling about elections to be held a year from now doesn’t tell us much.
BTW poor man’s Nate Silver looks like Bertie Wooster’s younger brother.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Hunter Gathers: To paraphrase Geraldine Ferraro, it’s almost like I’m ashamed to be white. The majority of my relatives are, effectively, voting for this guy, AIG douchebag #7
…because the black guy in the White House wants to give “free” medical insurance to some undeserving Poors
Via Pierce.
Villago Delenda Est
Rethuglicans are counting on this meme to save them from their doom.
The future is hazy, except for one thing: the GOP is doomed.
Chris
Your opinion of them is higher than mine.
schrodinger's cat
@Villago Delenda Est: This is exactly the meme Ted Cruz is circulating, that the government shutdown didn’t hurt them in the 90s and will hurt even less now.
Villago Delenda Est
@askew:
This.
Burn the Village to the ground, and salt the earth.
Hunter Gathers
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: I’m sure that AIG Douchebag #7’s real problem is that he didn’t get a hand written apology from Obama apologizing for his Unforgivable Blackness,having larger genitalia, and having a hotter wife than AIG Douchebag #7.
Chris
Fox News only got started in the 1990s, they weren’t living in quite as complete or sealed a bubble as they are now. Nowadays, there’s literally nothing they won’t believe anymore.
eemom
This is a ridiculous attitude, and it accomplishes nothing.
Mike with a Mic
It will harden anti-Republican attitudes among younger voters, but it will also harden the attitude that politicians are inherently assholes and that Washington DC can never get anything done unless it involves the military or bailing out rich New Yorkers (and the other rich in the major cities).
So sure it’s bad for Republicans, but it also contributes the idea that the government is essentially worthless unless you’re at the top. That isn’t something that works out well for Democrats. It largely contributes to people having no faith in it and going down the libertarian/Greenwaldian path of simply wanting to tear the whole thing down, or makes sure that people who aren’t overly fanatical about a particular social issue just say fuck it and stay home.
eemom
“We will ultimately vanquish the Republican party precisely because they get away with so many things for now” does not make any sense, either.
Villago Delenda Est
Newsmax headline: Obama Quit Smoking for Fear of Michelle
What, now they’re saying that Obama is pussywhipped? Is that what they’re saying? He’s not an Angry Black Man (TM) anymore, but pussywhipped?
These guys are getting their dumbass cliches all mixed up.
Oh, and three cheers to the vandals who trashed the statue of the shitty grade-Z movie star which is HUGE news to vile Newsmax target audience.
ranchandsyrup
@Mike with a Mic: Yup. This is good news for Rand Paul.
Villago Delenda Est
OK, a comment of mine was placed in moderation for the use of a bad word twice.
Good grief.
Yatsuno
Doug Doug Doug. I know you’re a numbers guy and all, but the fact is no one has any fucking clue what the reaction to a shutdown will be. Not to mention we could still be shut down when the debt ceiling hits and everything goes to complete shit. Of course the Village will scramble to blame both sides and Rushbo will scream lynch the ni-CLANG!! until he’s blue in the face, but not even the MSM can hide what the Republicans are doing here. Will it cost the Repubs in 2014? Too soon to tell yet.
Shorter me: Lighten up, Francis.
piratedan
another factor is the media itself, when the R’s did it the last time, they squarely skewered Gingrinch (and justifiably so) for pulling such an ideological stunt that served such petty purposes…. today’s MSM, yeah right, it’s not their jobs to report facts and provide insight, just give us the press releases and see who’s messaging wins out and pardon us if we provide a 75/25 advantage in coverage to team R, tyvm.
Mike with a Mic
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
They aren’t voting for rich fuckers in New York city. The thing is the Democrats can’t really go after them. What are they going to do? Attack rich, cosmopolitan, social liberals in the major cities? That’s kinda who they are, and those states are blue, and those cities are usually blue. They’d be going after their own.
This also glosses over the fact that “progressive” groups like the Human Rights Campaign side with the plutocrats, back them, call them progressive, because they help progressives win wars on issues like gay rights. The cost of social progressivism is the financial plutocracy, working with it and thus being powerless to do anything about it.
There’s no way for the Democrats to fight back on issues of financial and economic inequality until they are willing to sideline social issues and savage the very powers that have handed us our victories on social issues, in the blue cities and states that make up our power base.
It’s not going to happen. You really have to pick one, do you care about social issues or do you care about economic issues? Because we can’t fight both, winning on one means losing on the others. I don’t consider myself an economic progressive because my social values means I have to work with the plutocrats. The very people that are winning us the war on gay marriage are the ones after social security. So it’s easy to say that my stance on gay marriage means I’m for slashing social security.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Villago Delenda Est:
The thing that terrifies me is what the GOP will be capable of doing before their ‘doom’ catches up with them. They may die out eventually, but will it matter if they’ve succeeded in full out scorched earth? What policies will their time in power leave behind, and how long will it take to undo the worst of it, especially if they retain just enough power to cockblock all attempts to repeal and repair?
Doug Milhous J
@eemom:
Each of these things hurts them a little bit with younger voters, not enough to swing an election now — especially not a midterm will older voters dominate — but enough to make the country 52-48 for the next twenty years.
The Republican party isn’t putting a gun to its own head and pulling the trigger, it’s doing it one cigarette at time. If they thought the next cigarette was fatal, they’d stop. They’re right that the next one’s not fatal, but they will smoke themselves to death someday.
Emma
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Jesus. I hope whoever does him in knows how to leave no fingerprints and hide the body.
And can we just stop with the weeping and gnashing of teeth? We know nothing as to what will happen at the end of next year. Not.One.Flipping.Thing. Screaming “we’re doomed” becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy.
Redshirt
I’m with DougJ. I know you’re all aware of our media environment – how can the Republicans be blamed? They’ll skate right through this, it will become the new normal, and every Democrat in office is a target of insurrection.
The beatings will continue until only Republicans are in office. Then, heaven help any Democrat who stands up against them.
For a laugh, imagine how the media would react if all the parties involved in this shutdown were reversed, and it was an obstructionist Dem House doing this against a Republican president and Senate. There would be charges of treason.
Botsplainer
@Mike with a Mic:
As long as there are any unhappy gay white male scions of power and privilege, nothing else may be considered or worked on.
pamelabrown53
d@schrodinger’s cat: Defeatism is not only just for lunch, plus I agree with your earlier comment lamenting how events will unfold prior to their happening.
Because our media is infested with the Chuck Todd School of Fake Journalism, too many people have little clue about the real consequences that will befall them.
Tom Q
A poll I cited earlier — which i saw on TV just yesterday — put the spread at 51-33% anti-GOP. But, by all means, let’s cherry-pick the poll that confirms a feeling of (at least short-term) hopelessness.
What is it about Dems, that they so groove on feeling like they can’t win? I remember sitting with some friends the Monday after Nixon fired Archibald Cox, and hearing a few of them say it wouldn’t hurt Nixon a bit. (SPOILER ALERT: It did)
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Harold McMillan has been echoing in my mind a lot lately. “Events, my dear boy, events!” People talk about 2006 in terms of Iraq and Katrina, but Mark Foley was a major factor.
To me, the key is the difference between presidential and off-year electorate. If the Obama and Clinton machines can rev up turn out, if immigration comes back on to the national radar, 2014 could be a much different year than everyone’s expecting. Or it could be another banner year for bitter old white people.
? Martin
I would note that Obama has a knack of often (but not always) turning these moments against the GOP. In 1995 there were legitimate disagreements between the parties over the budget. Today there hasn’t even been a discussion of the budget. If the House hadn’t have passed this, what would they have passed? There’s simply no proposal from Boehner. We hit the debt limit on May 19 (nobody noticed). We’ll be at crisis within the next month. Within a week or two Apple will again have more available cash than the federal government.
The shutdown and debt limit holdup aren’t about disputes over spending or taxation. They’re about Ted Cruz and the GOP trying to make a political point. I don’t think Obama will respond to it the way he did in 2011. I think he’s going to step out and say something new – that he cannot negotiate with Republicans that make demands which are impossible to meet, and who offer no substance around which to operate. The GOP invariably hangs way out over the edge of this cliff, because the media are too useless to warn them away from it, and Obama lets them get way out there, and then he steps up and hits them – and what can they do? They’re trapped – they couldn’t control themselves, they didn’t hear the warnings, and the media has no choice but to nod along with the President instead of nodding along with the GOP.
Obama will get on national TV next Tuesday, just as Bill Clinton did, and calmly explain that the GOP is fucking everyone over and has offered no budget, and is busy trying for the 40-somethingth time to repeal Obamacare, and the tables will turn. Public sentiment will flow in his favor because most people don’t read Politico and Press the Meat but will notice when the President is telling the country during How I Met Your Mother that the government is shut down – don’t bother trying to go to a park, don’t be surprised to see your 401K get massacred, you won’t be able to renew your passport for your holiday vacation, that highway project will stop because there are no funds, federal courts will stop, and your customers that work for the government are going to stop coming to your business.
The GOP are seriously underestimating how quickly the President can turn this against them.
humanoid.panda
Isn’t Enten conflating pre-shutdown polls from 2013 to post shutdown polls from 1995? That doesn’t make a lick of sense.
humanoid.panda
Isn’t Enten conflating pre-shutdown polls from 2013 to post shutdown polls from 1995? That doesn’t make a lick of sense.
eemom
@Redshirt:
“I’m with DougJ. I know you’re all aware of our media environment – how can the Republicans be blamed?”
As I said a few threads ago, y’all need to get your heads out of the emmessemm ass once in a while…..and if you’re NOT gonna do that, look around: not every sentient non-obsessed being is up there with you.
The influence of Beltway bobblebots in general, let alone Fox fucking “news”, is ridiculously overstated on this blog.
schrodinger's cat
@humanoid.panda: I hadn’t never heard of Enten before this post. He was probably in diapers when the government shutdown the last time.
goblue72
@Mike with a Mic: I’m not sure I completely agree but there is a kernel of truth to it. FDR’s New Deal coalition intentionally sidelined civil rights issues in order forge a winning coalition of urban ethnics & unions, racial minorities, Northern liberals and Southern populists focused on economic issues. Until it fell apart in 1968 following the Civil Rights Acts.
The Democratic Party is going to continually be slugging it out (often on the losing end) until it starts re-prioritizing the economic plank in the Party, even if it means telling the hedge fund managers to go jump in a lake.
Its a tough road to hoe. Money just slushes through politics and you can’t win without it. And the Democrats are too reliant on just three or four sources of money for campaigns: trial lawyers, Hollywood and the financial services industry (and maybe high tech).
Joel
If the Republicans went the way of the Ancien Regime, I’d be okay with that.
hoodie
A difference that arguably makes this analysis meaningless is that the 96 shutdown was the result of a Clinton veto of a budget bill passed by both the House and the Senate. The Republicans actually had a better argument back then. They’ll never get defunding of the ACA through the Senate piggybacking on the CR. Reid already has let them know he will simply strip the Obamacare defunding from the CR and send it back to the House. The argument that the dems get to make is that you can’t shut down the whole government just because you aren’t able to get a particular provision of a bill that has nothing to do with the CR through both houses. The general public is probably not all that tuned in to the actual mechanics of this thing, so polls asking who would be blamed are likely inaccurate at this point. Don’t look for bad news that isn’t there, there’s already enough to go around.
Yatsuno
@goblue72:
This is especially true after the CU decision. It’s the fact that so much of it is undisclosed that really irks me. Stop fucking hiding behind your shell groups and make your opinions known cowards.
Chuck Butcher
I don’t make bets this far out from an election and I also don’t mix up public reaction to a hypothetical shutdown with an actual (bearing consequences) shutdown. Just to be a bit clearer, the public has not heard Democratic voices saying, “Let’s just shutdown the government,” those voices have all been on the other side. Keep in mind that it was the 2007/8 collapse that sealed McPOW’s fate and that involved real tangible costs to the public. I don’t know how the media will play this, either – one should not forget that they are owned by wealthy corporate interests… But then, wealth did pretty well out of 07/8…
MomSense
@The Other Chuck:
Yeah, my Dad said about the constant budget and debt showdowns, “this is no way to run a superpower”.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Yatsuno: Olly Snowe was on Colbert’s show and tried to use campaign finance and criticize CU as an example of her Reasonable, Party Before Country credibility. Colbert immediately brought up her vote to filibuster the disclosure act and she ignored him with a cheerful arrogance that would have done Donald Rumsfeld proud. She’s always been a frustrating puzzle to me, but that was at least an example of her being a talented politician as opposed to the usual frightened bunny rabbit she usually seems like on TV
Face
“52-48” may be how they identify, but that only works if the 52% will be allowed to vote. The GOP will go all-out with voter denial (with hat tips to the SCOTUS) as the rest of the VCA is eviscerated next year or so. And where they cannot outright deny voting priveleges, watch for the “1 voting booth per urban location” bullshit that leads to 3.8 mile long voting lines….
Predicting the death of the GOP is waaaaaaaaaayyyyy premature.
? Martin
@hoodie:
I think the calculus now is does Reid send it back without ACA but with sequestration fixed, pushing the House up against the deadline and facing having to vote down the bill themselves or toss it and send a new clean CR through. I don’t get the sense the Dems are worried about running out of time here. The GOP seems vastly more worried about that.
I don’t know if the GOP can get off the ledge regarding the debt ceiling. We had a long detailed look at it from the media (at least financial media) 2 years ago. We’re pretty deep into it now, and there’s been no talk of it really. Somebody is going to wake up soon and sound the alarm and everyone will run around like they’re on fire. Either the GOP throws in the towel, or this is going to blow up badly. And I think the infighting is the party figuring out if they can even fight as a cohesive group. If they can’t, they’ll be blamed by everyone, with the moderate GOPers blaming Cruz and the Tea Party and the Tea Partiers blaming the establishment guys. They’d have no choice but to cave.
Sasha
Default on the other hand …
AxelFoley
@askew:
This. Straight up, this.
I am disappoint, Douglas. I thought you were one of the few reasonable front pagers.
SMH
Sloegin
If SS and medicare keep flowing during a shutdown it doesn’t harm the part of the electorate driving this mess. The worst thing that happened to the sequester was that the kleptocracy jiggered the FAA budget so that their precious travel schedules weren’t inconvenienced.
If the olds and baggers get their gummit checks in the mail as usual during the next shutdown then D’s really will take a hit.
Churchlady320
@askew: AMEN!!!!
Davis X. Machina
@Face:
A political party predicated on systematic appeals to the worst in people may grow, or shrink, from time to time, and change its name. But it’s not going to disappear.
Take St. Augustine and give the points. The fundamental depravity of mankind doesn’t always win, but it always covers the spread…
RaflW
Is there some reason that Harry Enten, who’s byline is totally new to me, should be treated as the seer of 2013?
Davis X. Machina
@Sloegin: 90% of those checks are direct-deposit now. A skeleton crew can pump them out.
Chris
@goblue72:
Yes. It is. And sidelining social issues will make it more tough, not less. The socially liberal demographic is the growing one in this country (see also the youth’s opinion of gay marriage). Pissing them off by backing away from the issues they care about is stupid politics, especially when you can’t count on deep pockets to help compensate for the loss of voters. “Picking economics over social issues” means cutting yourself off from the bigger and growing share of the public and from the elites, which means giving yourself the weaknesses of both parties and none of their strengths.
artem1s
Why does Doug J keep trolling us on this? FFS just tell us how we’re suppose to think about the CR vote so we don’t have to sit through another one of these endoftheworldfordems posts please.
are we suppose to
1. not bother with contacting our reps cause they are going to vote for shut down no matter what
2. not bother to work on GOTV for 2014 because once the shut down occurs the GOP will win the universe and there will be no more dems in office sotherecauseisaidso.
3 both
it would be irresponsible not to speculate
aimai
@Mike with a Mic: The vote today is for Mayor of Boston–a hugely important city, that dominates the MA economy and skyline–and there is so far 11 percent turnout. 11 percent in a turnover election in which the old Mayor, Menino, is stepping down after like 20 years in power. And we can only get 11 percent turn out?
cleek
@Villago Delenda Est:
they most certainly aren’t.
as soon as it’s clear that what they’re offering isn’t selling they’ll change their product line. but that hasn’t happened. they still win elections. they still control the House. they have a shot at the Senate. and 2016 is an eternity away.
the discontented clucking of wonks and those who think the GOP ain’t what it used to be are utterly irrelevant, as long as the party wins elections.
Mike in NC
So this genius at The Guardian is the new Chuck Todd, minus the facial hair, because he looks too young to shave?
? Martin
@Davis X. Machina:
Closer to 100% since they’ve been required to be d-d since March.
But nobody can sign up during the shutdown. Nobody can get problems resolved. There’s a whole constellation of stuff that happens around the critical functions that people will feel. Nobody can get passports. Visas aren’t processed. Swaths of the travel industry will begin to wind down. Additionally all federal employee travel will instantly stop. It will be felt.
Davis X. Machina
@? Martin: Will it be felt by its noisiest proponents?
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@Mike with a Mic: Your confusing fairly well off urban liberals with the CEO/Wall Street/Hedge Fund class. Most of that class donates big money to republicans, votes republican, and supports republicans. See, Romney, Mitt – the living breathing stereotype of them all. Point being, even the upper middle class is worried about their future and you can work on both social and economic issues at the same time without pissing off urban east coast liberals. In fact many of us east coast liberals would thoroughly approve of more economic populism, which is why De Blazio is going to be the next Mayor of NY.
? Martin
@Davis X. Machina: I think so. Nobody has been thinking about the cost of a shutdown. In 1995 the media talked a lot about the costs so people had a sense of what was coming. Now, they’re talking about other stuff. They’ll be reminded soon.
Tone in DC
@? Martin:
THANK YOU.
I don’t get all this “we’re DOOOOOOMED” shit. It’s a wonder some these commenters can get out of bed in the morning, if this is how they think.
And, admittedly, I am not some power-of-positive-thinking proponent. Reality, IMHO, is a better alternative… cuz, ya know, it’s all REAL and shit.
Roger Moore
@Villago Delenda Est:
The key thing to understand is that it’s possible for a bad person to be all kinds of bad at once. Thus Obama is simultaneously a Muslim intent on imposing Shariah law and under the malign influence of Jeremiah Wright, a cynical manipulator and incapable of talking without a teleprompter, hopelessly ineffective and capable of doing any terrible thing the Republicans can imagine, and an angry black man and completely under the thumb of his wife. They’re all just different aspects of him being bad, so the details don’t matter, just that they prove he is a bad person.
The Moar You Know
Senate GOP is going to tell Cruz to go back to Canada, or something. Anyhow, they’re not signing on for the “defund Obamacare” bullshit.
Tommy
@Tone in DC: I lived in DC the last time our government shut down, so maybe that experience was different for me. I didn’t work for the government but most of my friends did. When the government shut down it was kind of FUBAR. But I recall the “little” things that folks don’t really think about throughout the nation, like getting a passport (just one small example), seemed to freak out even the anti-government folks. I think the Republicans are playing with fire here and don’t even realize it.
? Martin
@The Moar You Know: This comment isn’t helping Cruz’s cause any:
Yatsuno
@The Moar You Know: Or Cuba. Apparently his father never renounced his Cuban citizenship, which makes Rafael a Cuban citizen as well. Oh what a tangle…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Tommy: IIRC it was August and a whole lot of people were driving up to Yellowstone, Yosemite and Great Smoky Mountain Natoinal Parks to find the gates closed. Who knew the gummint had anything to do with National Parks?
@? Martin: The filibuster has begun, and Ted has vowed to collapse in a Jimmy Stewartian heap on the Senate floor.
Chris
@What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?:
It seems to be a common chestnut, conforming to heartland-based stereotypes, to assume that because the East Coast is the 1%er hub of the country as well as its liberal hub, the two must be the same thing (hello, “liberal elitist” and other cliches). When in reality, “East Coast elites” are about as conservative as anything that ever came out of the South or West, and what liberalism exists on the East Coast was built from the bottom up (via labor movements, civil rights movements and the like) in defiance of them, not because of them.
(The question, of course, is where the suburban middle class that emerged in the fifties fits into the picture. I’d say that Daily Beast article that was posted here a week ago makes a pretty compelling argument that at the moment, and certainly among the younger ones, they’re on the liberal side economically as well as socially – OWS representing not the disenfranchised poor, but the jobless middle class that in another age might’ve been willing to go along with 1%er narratives, but is now finding that they’re bullshit).
Mike E
@schrodinger’s cat: Will the circle(uhr firing squad) be unbroken?
? Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Unsurprising. This is all a vanity project for him. He’ll milk it for all the media exposure he can get.
Tone in DC
This kind of fatalism (lately, it’s been kind of incessant) brings to mind a few different things. Among them, Charles Schultz’ old Peanuts strips. Doug and so many other people here must really identify with Charlie Brown.
Begin rant – Enjoy landing flat on your back after Ted Cruz/Lucy pulls the damn ball away. For the hundredth time. Apparently this feeling agrees with you folks.
Shit, I’d rather daydream about flying a Sopwith Camel. Or dodging that nasty feline next door.
I’d rather drive in this traffic all evening than read so much “WOE IS US” caterwauling.
Tommy
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: A few years ago I went on my yearly two week camping trip with a friend from highschool. He brought this far right dude with him. I recall one day I was going to pay our National Parks camping permit. He handled me like $80 to pay it. I was like dude, it is only $12/night. He was stunned. It was at this point I noted “our government is kind of cool isn’t it?”
Tone in DC
@Tommy:
I t was tough last time. It was November, as I recall. People didn’t receive their checks, or the services they need/wanted. Tough to get the heat turned on with no money.
Having said that… if Big Dog could get the point across then regarding who the hell was to blame, what makes anyone here think that BHO can’t do the same (or better) this time? I’m sure someone will bring up the first debate with Romney. Or something like that. Plenty of Obama-bashing on B-J.
Still, in a discussion of this shutdown situation, I’ll take Barack Hussein Overdrive over Cruz, Ryan, Randian Paultard and Lester Maddox’ ghost.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@? Martin: I guess vanity is the only explanation. I keep hearing even from people who hate him how brilliant he is, and Zengerle argues he’s very intentionally dumbing down for the Tea Baggers. If he’s so smart, he can’t possibly think he can get elected president, and he doesn’t need all this folderol to succeed Rick Perry.
max
Must be a blue moon.
@askew: I think you are dead wrong on this. The closest comparison is the government shutdown during Clinton’s presidency. It killed Republicans and revitalized Clinton. I think the government shutdown here would be a huge bonanza for the Democrats in 2014. At this point, the Republicans are in danger of losing the business interests whose bottomlines are being hurt by the GOP’s crazy tactics on a national and state level. The Chamber of Commerce has been pleading with the GOP to stop playing with the economy and to pass immigration reform. If they shut down the government, don’t be surprised to see the Chamber spending less money in 2014 elections for GOP or even spending some money on bluedog Dems.
I concur, with several reservations. YOU ACTUALLY HAVE TO SHUT DOWN. If you don’t shut down, then the great mass of Americans blows the whole thing off as a lot of DC Kabuki. If you shut down, you get the effects, and the R’s own the defund Obamacare thing, so they’re going to get the blame.
What makes me pessimistic is that the D’s are beating the drums for ‘default’. Unless Jack Lew is hopelessly incompetent we’re not going to default. (Default here meaning that Treasury stops paying debt service on T-Bills.) The shutdown from a debt ceiling block should be pretty ugly though, with lots of recriminations and lawsuits and claims of unconstitutionality.
The D’s were pushing the default action to try and force people (left and right alike) to accept some shitty Grand Bargain. Screw the Grand Bargain: if the R’s want to play ball, make sure the ball heads back for their faces at 90 miles an hour.
max
[‘We’ll see.’]
schrodinger's cat
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: We heard that about Jindal too, remember? That he was brilliant.
Mike E
@Tone in DC:
WIN
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@schrodinger’s cat: and little Marco, who apparently still thinks he has a shot
“This will put me back on top!” Fifteen different kinds of pathetic
Tommy
@Tone in DC: I can’t find the darn story, but years ago somebody wrote a post on their blog that talked about, from the time he woke up to when he went to bed, all the ways government was involved in his life (in a good way).
From when his alarm clock went off, knowing the time (my watch syncs with that government agency). Clean water. Roads. Weather reports. Inspected food.
The list went on and on and on some more.
I like to think I am pretty smart, but as I read it I recall not even knowing how much fucking stuff (again, good stuff) our government does.
There is a part of me that would like a long-term government shut down, just cause I don’t think most tea party folks realize how much good the government does for them. And they need a slap in the face.
But of course that hurts folks and not looking for that either.
chopper
@? Martin:
exactly. does anyone actually think that cruz will come out of this looking better than obama? NFW.
trnc
Why would anyone believe that younger voters will necessarily be better informed? 20 years ago Bernard Shaw was on CNN and Fox News didn’t exist. Today we have Wolf Blitzer and Chuck Todd. I don’t see this dynamic getting better anytime soon.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Tommy: Mike Grunwald?
? Martin
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I think he’ll win the nom in 2016 if he runs. This will help him. Remember when Paul Ryan was the golden boy because he was a wonk that was smarter than Obama? That’s Ted Cruz now like it or not. He’s making everyone on the right look ineffective, even if this totally blows up on him. Ryan’s budgets were voted down by his own caucus, yet everyone loved the guy because they thought he got under Obama’s skin.
Cruz could beat someone like Kerry. I don’t think he can beat Hillary. I think his own proclivity toward assholishness will be his undoing. He’s Gingrich with less stupid ideas, but no more sensible ones.
Tom Q
@trnc: Because younger voters, unlike their aging parents/grandparents, get their news from a wide variety of sources, and pay little attention to the bubble of DC-think.
Tone in DC
Reality DOES have a liberal bias.
Too many people have no idea what’s going on, right now. They often don’t know how the government even works. And these people vote while floating in that noxious fact-free cloud.
I am hoping Amy Goodman, Nate Silver, Ed Schultz, Rachel Maddow and Reverend Al can do something about that cloud during the next few days and weeks.
One of my favorite cliches… “You think education is expensive, try ignorance.”
eemom
@cleek:
Also agree that of course the GOP isn’t doomed and the rest of what you said.
“The GOP” is powered by infinite money and — as it continues to demostrate — inhibited by absolutely nothing in terms of conscience, principle, consistency, regard for human life, or anything else. Plus it’s got stupidity, ignorance and hatred on its side. When in human experience has a monster like that ever been slaughtered?
It’s hilarious — so much misplaced pessimism, and so much misplaced optimism, all in the same thread.
Ash Can
I looked through the article twice for a source for this and couldn’t find anything. Can someone help me out here?
Tommy
@Tone in DC: My brother’s wife works at TRANSCOM (United States Transportation Command) as a civil servant. She isn’t anything close to a liberal. Before this she was the #1 liquor seller in my area. Made a ton of money, but when she got pregnant, well they had no use for her if she was going to take maternity leave (I am sure illegal what they did). Shit canned her.
She is very smart, MBA, and my dad had connects and got her an interview for her current job.
Funny think a good paying job, good workplace, healthcare, day care, and benefits have made her think the government isn’t nearly as “bad” as she used to say/think.
Chris
@Tone in DC:
Mushy moderates who’re still enthralled by the Reaganite spiel might feel the slap in the face and react intelligently. “Tea party folks?” Not a chance. They’ll just see it as another instance of the government hurting them and not being able to do anything right, and blame Obama.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@eemom:
The GOP has been attacking itself these last two months, if you haven’t noticed.
Tone in DC
@Chris:
There are about 27% of US Americans (and such as) out there who would caterwaul about the damage done to oncologists’ practices if BHO cured cancer. I don’t think there is any reaching these folks. I just don’t.
The remaining 73% can get a few things done, if we can argue/discuss/rant with the same set of facts. Be a nice change.
Tone in DC
@Tommy:
These folks are out there. Slowly but surely, a few of ’em are coming around.
Gotta like that.
eemom
@Enhanced Voting Techniques:
Long leap from that to being “doomed.”
Davis X. Machina
An audience just north of 600,000 isn’t going to shift those numbers very much.
Tone in DC
@Davis X. Machina:
Thanks for the numbers.
Just one thing. This set of ratings presumes that people are ONLY getting their information from cable news/MSNBC. I mentioned Amy Goodman; she’s nationwide on the radio. There are other outlets, as well. I’m willing to even count Van Jones on that new television show, even though he isn’t the main draw. Jones is not a shrinking violet.
The ratings are the ratings. If I thought TV news was the end all and be all, I would have been surprised that Obama won last fall. It isn’t, and I was not.
cermet
The shut down may happen for the fiscal year but it will not last long causing little to no real harm; the debt ceiling will be raised because the thugs know all too well what they will suffer – wish it wasn’t : some pain now and a year to get over the effects but when the white old farts don’t get their checks at all, boy, will the shit hit the fan. Then the thugs will be lower than whale shit and loss enough seats to change the House and hold the Senate. Even though it would hurt me directly, I really wish the thugs would allow the debt ceiling to be reached; that would be their undoing no matter what anyone here says or believes. Thus killing the thug party’s grip on power for a few years due to old fart fallout will allow population to catch up and that party will start its final death spiral. Also, that would end the teabaggers. Can hope.
Davis X. Machina
@Tone in DC:
On a lot of 15,000 watt community FM stations in college towns, preaching to the already-converted.
WereBear
I hope so. I always said President Obama: Term II would be a different proposition. Butts will be kicked.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@eemom:
when you have a collection of no compromise, no surrender nihilists that make up that party what do you think the end result of a GOP civil war will be?
xian
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: wingnut welfare, here he comes. Rush won’t be there forever.
xian
@? Martin: I’d love to hear which Obama state Cruz flips. Florida? Ohio?
Bonnie
I was a Federal Government employee during the last shutdown. I was a GS-6, which is a very low grade; and, the shutdown was going to hurt me because of my low grade. I am and always have been a bleeding heart liberal. However, I discovered that many of the high-graded employees (GS-13 and above) were Republicans. After the shutdown that took us through the Christmas holidays, many of those Republican employees became Democrats for the next election. Now, we know how little the Repubs care about the Feds (despite that they, themselves are Feds); but, losing Republican voters with this shutdown will happen. And, I believe it will be enough to make a difference for Democrats in the next election and probably for 2016.