I do agree that a shutdown will hurt Republicans, but not as much as many think, because, of course, BOTH SIDES will have done it.
Seems to me most new polling shows majorities oppose shutdown, but also wud split blame rather equally, if one were to occur.
— Harry Enten (@ForecasterEnten) September 24, 2013
As I’ve said before, “both sides do it” is the American equivalent of the song of General Kim Jong-il.
No, it won’t be calamity for Republicans if shutdown happens, though at a certain point, the fact they’re losing to Terry McAuliffe by five points is a calamity.
Update. I like Enten and am not blaming him, I think he’s right that’s what the polls say.
God, I hate this country sometimes.
Far from being a calamity, the R’s get to do what they do best, which is to be enormous dicks to the 99%. They’re like the fucking Terminator – they just keep grinding along with their obsession that you have to destroy the economy to save it. Or something.
Well, at a certain point there are a core group of conservatives that will cheer a shut down because “Fuck government, yeah!” And you’re going to see these contrarians get up and explain that, while the shut down is all Obama’s fault we should give the credit to Republicans for bravely drowning government in the bath tub at long last.
That’s going to bring a whole bunch of cognitive dissonance to the foreground, and force a bunch of on-the-fence Republicans to say a string of incendiary “Poor people can suck it” / “Anyone that accepts government money is a parasite” / “No one actually likes Social Security / Medicare!” statements.
On all sides.
Enten, a smart guy, ignores the large amount of political science research indicating that polls which ask people to predict their reactions to theoretical future events have little relationship to how they actually do react if an event comes to pass. These polls are simply indications of the general 50-50 split of party identification in the public.
The Moar You Know
They’ll have their shutdown, and I don’t even care what comes of it just so long as it’s not longer than two weeks, because that’s all the breathing room I have.
It would be nice if the shutdown were made total; no Medicare or Social Security checks, no military pension checks – a real honest to goodness government shutdown, so that the imbeciles who keep voting the fascists into power might understand that they depend on the government just as much as I, a disposable federal employee, do, but I suppose that’s too much to ask.
Why do you say that?
I am a Virginian, and the idea that we could have Governor Cuccinelli is terryifying.
McAuliffe has a 24-point lead over Cuccinelli among women.
Cuccinelli signs have just gone up this weekend, all over Northern Virginia. I’ve not seen any McAuliffe yard signs yet.
(Although I am amused to see yards with GOP sheriff and delegate yard signs, but not the top of the ticket.)
When I see Cuccinelli-Jackson signs around my area, I think “what fools.” Diehard Republicans, to the last gasp. A local tech business group endorsed Cooch — they’ve demeaned themselves.
(FWIW: Virginia teemed with Romney signs in 2012. He did not win the state, although it was close.)
These idiots like Enten spend a whole lot of time to figure out which way the wind is blowing when all you have to do is stick a wet finger in the air or look at the trees.
It’s important to remember that the number of people who can’t make up their minds about these things is small, and relatively small shifts in that group have big effects. So, even if it was true that both sides do it, it wouldn’t matter. What matters is the change at the margin, and McAuliffe being ahead of Cuccinelli shows that Repubs have lost at the margin. And that is a calamity for Republicans.
Incidentally, there is a Libertarian in the Virginia governor’s race. He’s drawing about 8% support.
I would guess most of it is from Republicans (or GOP who think they’re libertarians). After the election, would love to see the gender breakdown.
@JMG: That’s how I see it. It is hardly news that Americans are divided into two tribes or teams. This poll is like a pre-game, “Go Team!” snapshot.
@Elizabelle: I am happy for you that you look to be dodging Governor Cuccinelli.
Best of luck with Governor McAuliffe. (Dude is a slime bucket. I’m just sayin…)
err, that’s what the polls actually say.
I’ll take a dunk in a McAuliffe slime bucket over sliding down a bannister made of Cuccinelli razor blades.
Mike in NC
Who the fuck is “ForecasterEnten”? Maybe he should learn how to spell before anybody pretends to give a shit what he has to say.
meh, jon stewart has the bothsidesdoit market fully covered.
Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
Maybe, maybe not. Virginia generally elects Republican governors until shit gets dire and we need a Democrat to make Government run competently again so Republicans have something to fuck up for a while again.
What I’ve learned from the Romney 2012 fiasco is that the GOP can print up more signs and shove them everywhere, they don’t equate into votes or voter enthusiasm. GOTV for Democrats! showing up at the polls is what counts, not the signs!
Five points in favor of McAuliffe is not enough. Won’t exhale until he’s actually declared the winner in November.
@Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: But isn’t it, like, over two decades since the VA governorship went to the party holding the White House? Breaking that historical pattern is some sort of sign.
As far as this guy Enten’s “insight” — polls I’m seeing (and, granted, they’re not necessarily predictive of what happens when a shutdown becomes reality) show a huge gap: the last one I saw says 33% blame Dems & 51% Goopers. That’s pretty far from “both sides”.
Higgs Boson's Mate
McAuliffe’s modest lead is a hopeful sign all right. At the moment I’ll take anything I can get. The opposition spent years, while our leadership (Save for Howard Dean) slept, building the framework that enables it to influence events way out of proportion to its size. That the framework was hijacked at the last minute by a bunch of nihilistic assholes is our great misfortune.
So, go Dems. Maybe if we went to some places where we’re not even running in opposition we’d get there a little sooner.
@amk: Stewart is happy to step in and point out that Democrats are stupid, too. That’s not necessarily “both sides do it” so much as “both sides clearly need improvement”. He also seems to insist that everyone follow Marquis Of Queensbridge Rules while people are shivving each other in the showers.
David in NY
@PaulW: Yard signs are generally thought to be a waste of time and money.
Actually, more and more I am hearing cracks in this facade. Sure there are the ol’ dependables who will spout “BOTH SIDES….” repeatedly, but there are more voices reflecting a more realistic view. Therefore now is a good time for Democratic leaders to get in front of cameras and to schmooze reporters and pundits.
Like ACA, there is a case to be made and an audience increasingly seeking answers. This time, let’s not cede the infowar battlefield to the other side.
@amk: That’s overly simplistic. Stewart points out stupidity. Our Democratic side, and our leaders, are not immune from missteps.
@The Moar You Know: I hear you as a fellow federal employee. I hope the Prez stands firm and doesn’t cave to any silly demands.
peach flavored shampoo
I think the Todd Chuckles blurb was extremely crucial in all of this. It explains how and why the GOP can just flat make shit up, repeat it 100x into a camera, and then have it repeated throughout the country while Dems sit there, mouth agape at such shitfuckery. The GOP has so bitchslaped the cable newsies that they no longer ever question anything, and now Squirrel Chin Toddler has made that common knowledge.
Cant get the undecided to vote Dem if they remain ignorant of the truth. A shutdown doesn’t hurt the GOP at all, because they’ll simply blame the Dems. Then cue Wolf crying foul on Obama for shutting down the gov’t.
@joes527: I am happy for you that you look to be dodging Governor Cuccinelli.
And the Lite Guv (Ralph Northam) and AG candidates (Mark Herring) are looking OK, too.
Best of luck with Governor McAuliffe. (Dude is a slime bucket. I’m just sayin…)
I gave my money to Northham and Herring (and now my email is extra full), and ignored Bill Clinton’s fundraising email, because can’t the guy sell some body parts? Although if Mac was in any kind of real fundraising trouble I’d cough up some scratch, I suppose.
At any rate, given the current R administration, I think the slime levels might decline a bit with Mac. Certainly the vaginal probing will.
[‘So there’s that.’]
33% is not far off from the 27% wingtards that would still blame the Dems even if Boehner and McConnell and Cruz and Palin all came out in a presser and fully admited full responsbility for the entire shutdown in its entirety.
IOW, all polls need to start with 27% as their baseline. Zero them out. Basically, 6% of the voters whose opinion might matter blame the Dems.
@Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: My question is more along the lines of: Assuming McAuliffe wins, will he clean up his act or will he regress to his personal mean and behave in such a way that he handicaps Democratic chances in that state for a generation?
@Higgs Boson’s Mate:
Misfortune? Or fortune?
Agree, we’re seeing the harvest from years upon years of right-wing “think” tanking.
But it’s our fortune that the masks have slipped off the GOP so badly. It takes that for a lot of voters to wake up. Too many people prefer to sleep, or don’t even get off their asses and VOTE. That’s a huge problem for our side.
And great to see you here! Give my best to Mary G!!
(out for a while; will check back later)
No, Stewart fetishizes civility, and has no use for nuance in anything. Go watch his first Obama interview. Stewart spends the entire time slamming Obama for failing in his promise to bring ‘change’, and the only change Stewart is willing to talk about is partisan bickering in Washington. It’s a deranged display of blaming the victim that would do O’Reilly proud.
Yeah, Stewart wears thin.
The Colbert dude has both balls and brains. The protege surpasses the master.
Gin & Tonic
@Zifnab25: That’s Marquess of Queensberry rules.
I really don’t see the “both sides are equally to blame” on this one. Why? Because up until now a huge percentage of the stupid population has continued to receive their benefits (social security and medicare) even with this kind of brinksmanship. That gives them the luxury of ignoring the hurt the sequester and the shutdown put on ordinary other people.
But with Obamacare coming on line there are probably millions of people who are actually starting to engage with government services over something that is incredibly vital and present to them. Maybe even five days before the roll out they were still largely unaware of what the potential was but as we near the actual date millions of people are starting to become aware of a major change in their life circumstances–one that they owe entirely to Obama and the Dems and Government writ large.
Crashing the ship of state just as the drowning victims are reaching towards it is simply not going to redound to the credit of the Republicans. Too many people are going to be hurt, and hurt publicly. And lest people think that the 40 million previously uninsured and unisurable are some isolated pocket of despised non white/poor people–think again. Those 40 million are also older, whiter, have adult children, are the children of people on Social Security and Medicare. They are connected–not disconnected–from other voters.
Up until now I think Health Care, like people’s salaries, has generally been a private topic and people have kept their needs and concerns and situations close to the vest. But to crash the system just as it is coming online is going to bring a lot of people and their needs into the public eye and make clear to a lot of complacent older voters that they are fucking over their own children by supporting Republican intransigence.
@Frankensteinbeck: I will go watch, but…”blaming the victim”? Politicians holding office are not victims. They are individuals who asked for a job that includes a high degree of rough examination of their choices.
@Frankensteinbeck: Which civility he reserves singularly for his rw guests. No wonder the smarter Colbert is getting more attention & recognition.
@Keith G: Given the unprecedented levels of gop obstructionism since 2009, his schtick of “I’m calling it as I see it” has become quite boring. ymmv.
@PaulW: This. I saw plenty of Romney yard signs in northern Virginia in 2012. Our canvassing beat their swag.
I don’t really care how many ‘enablers’ come out and say both sides will get the blame from a shut down/default. That is utter bullshit. Yes, 27% will blame Democrats without fail because those 27% are mindless idiots. That won’t change. But the rest of America won’t blame Democrats.
Vote for the Slime Bucket. It’s Important.
Excellent post, aimai.
And that’s just what it feels like, speaking as one who is uninsured.
Seeing the lifeline whipped away just as you’re finally reaching it.
I know so many children and younger relatives of Medicare Republicans who need meaningful healthcare.
On the issue of partisan nastiness in Washington, in what way is it at all Obama’s fault? To harangue Obama because the GOP has directed unprecedented levels of insult and obstruction at him is as classic an example of ‘blaming the victim’ as you’re ever going to get.
Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
I don’t know that he hasn’t already cleaned up his act, whatever that means. He’s a pol, they’re all slimy, some more than others. And of course he’ll cripple Democratic prospects for a generation. Democrats automatically do that by being Democrats. Republicans can never fail Republicanism but Democrats are by default everything that is wrong with democracy.
If signs voted, Ron Paul would have won the NH primary in 2008 and 2012.
Aaaaaaaah. Better than the sweetest song lyrics.
Thankfully not in my neck of the woods. Not many signs in general, but more McAuliffe than Kook.
Also too, I don’t think it means anything. The repubtards do make their little pathetic pushes to get their signs out…..they did it last year too, as you mention, and look where it got ’em: shocked on election night, bwaaahaaahaaaahaaaaa.
@aimai: Precisely. Their fear of Obamacare is justified because of the who it will help. You don’t fight tooth and nail against something if you believe it will fail, or simply because you don’t want to give a “win” to the opposition. There will be negative political outcomes for the GOP once the ACA is fully implemented, that is a reality they understand. At least it’s a reality that establishment Republicans understand. Their voters are a different story. But then, their voters have been sold death panels and hand-outs to the poors and the browns. It will be interesting to see how this plays out once they encounter actual people they know and care about benefiting.
@Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: at least that’s what their voters think
Frankly DougJ — I mean I lovez you to death and everything — but you really need to get your head out of the emmessemm ass once in a while.
Here in PA, Corbett has rebranded Obamacare/ACA as “Healthy PA” for the rollout, thus taking personal credit for all the benefits, while still lambasting “Obamacare” as if they are two entirely different things. He’s more or less touting this as “saving” us from Obamacare by instituting Healthy PA.
Sadly, it would be hard to underestimate the intelligence level of the average PA voter. (How do you think he got elected in the first place?) His strategy will probably work.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I just listened to an NPR ‘top of the hour’ news report. The official at the heart of the “IRS Tea Party scandal”, in which Tea Party groups were targeted for unfair scrutiny, has resigned. No qualifiers, no discussion of the fact that the preceding is pretty much entirely horsehit. Also, too, the Senate is taking up discussion of a House bill that would prevent a government shutdown…. but defund Obamacare. Democrats oppose the bill.
@Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader:
Well, Mark Warner didn’t, so there’s some hope there. I don’t think McAuliffe will be brilliant, but I think he’ll manage to be fairly competent. However, he’s never held elective office before, so we really have no way of knowing.
I think having been painted as sleazy may actually work somewhat to his advantage if he wins, since it sets expectations. Governors of both parties are expected to be “pro-business,” and as long as McAuliffe has enough sense not to personally profit while in office, it’ll be hard to make any actions seem like more than that. I think Bob McDonnell has done long-term damage to Republicans in the state because while he was right-wing (campaigning as a moderate, of course), no one expected him to be personally extremely sleazy.
@Keith G: Stewart is awful at interviewing politicians. He gets rolled regularly.
John Oliver at least made a passing attempt to nail Gillibrand with the Goldman-Sachs donations.
John Stewart said or implied this? No.
I just watched the 2010 and 2012 extended interviews. There was no haranguing. Between the jokes, comedian Jon Stewart asked some very good and original questions. He also did Obama a big favor (intentional or not) by asking several of the conventional wisdom, or “some people say” questions (the haranguing stuff). In both cases, Obama was easily able to bring an overwhelming amount of charm, dignity, wit and solid information to his answers.
I think Stewart’s questions on political climate were important since at that time, those question were used by many to pick at Obama. Stewart gave the President an important avenue to address them without seeming whiny.
Why Obama doesn’t do this more often is beyond me. He is his best salesman and his reluctance has led to some unnecessary issues.
@Joel:Oliver’s choices are due in part to the different ways that media in GB treats politicians. But I do think that Stewart can ask good question and get good information out, but remember that is not why his show exists.
@gypsy howell: No question this is a strange place. Registered D’s outnumber registered R’s by something like 1,000,000, yet we have a R governor, R’s running both the state house and senate, and (IIRC) R’s forming a majority of the (elected) state supreme court.
They are not loosing to Terry, Cuccinelli is loosing to Terry. I actually think that a sane GOP candidate could win this. But, you know, it is hard to win elections in the modern era if no women are willing to vote for you.
@gypsy howell: I agree that a certain percentage of the voters won’t “get” that the “healthy state choice” is actually Obamacare–but even their state versions of things are going to get borked in the shutdown, aren’t they?
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The problem is this reasoning is the shut down is Republican verses Republican.
Keith G always has to get his shots in on Obama.
@AxelFoley: Yes I do. I happen to think that Obama is not a precious thing who can not withstand high expectations. And I also praise him. I worked our precinct convention on his behalf and I joyfully voted for him twice.
That said, I am a bit puzzled at where the “shot” was in the above back and forth.