I don’t know a lot about this blog Stan Collender’s Capital Gains and Games, but they seem well-informed and the tone is intelligent:
I was talking informally with a number of the members of Congress who had been there after the meeting ended. There was unanimous agreement among those members that the biggest thing the House GOP had done wrong during the 1995 and 1995-96 shutdowns was that it had given in to Bill Clinton too early. The GOP would have gotten a much better deal, they told me, if it had pushed harder and been willing to keep the government closed longer.
They’re putting the odds of a shutdown at 90%.
As I’ve said before, I don’t think a shutdown in and of itself is a big deal politically, but it’s another nail in the Republicans’ coffin for 2016 and beyond. It’s going to be depressing reading BOTH SIDES DO IT over and over, but let’s buck up. Gettysburg was a million times more depressing, and we know how that war ended.
burnspbesq
CG&G started out as Bruce Bartlett’s blog. Always been smart and readable.
Cacti
Spoken like a person who will be virtually unaffected by it.
Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
@burnspbesq: Smart like figuring out trickle down economics doesn’t work twenty-some years after everyone else did? That kinda smart?
Doug Milhous J
@Cacti:
I still don’t think it’s a big deal politically. I was affected personally by the sequester and I don’t it was a big deal politically either.
Stillwater
Gettysburg was a million times more depressing, and we know how war ended.
With
the Southconservatives believing that tactical errors lost them the war?Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
@Cacti:
Sucks, but if that’s what it takes to keep it happening for another 17 years, then we all gotta step up and get a little blood on our hands.
Cassidy
Modern weaponry and reliance on modern infrastructure alters the landscape a bit.
Cacti
@Doug Milhous J:
Which is not the same thing as a shutdown.
PsiFighter37
World history / American history according to the House Republicans – just a few examples so you catch my drift:
a) The Chinese would’ve conquered Japan if they had just sailed a bit harder across the ocean
b) Alexander the Great would’ve conquered the entire world if he had bothered to buy American health insurance to access the WORLD’S BEST HEALTH CARE!!!111
c) Napoleon would’ve conquered Russia if he had bothered fighting the real enemy, Mother Nature and her evil consort, Russian Winter
d) The South would’ve won the War of Northern Aggression if that pansy Robert E. Lee wasn’t secretly a Yankee lover at heart
e) John McCain and Mitt Romney would’ve won the election if they had promised to deport every brown person out of America and put guns in the pocket of every property-owning white American
Raven Onthehill
@Doug Milhous J: But you have money in the bank. A lot of people don’t, or don’t have enough.
I am wondering if Obama is taking a page from his hero Lincoln, and waiting for the other side to fire the first shot. Another Gettysburg isn’t likely, because this is not primarily a regional conflict, but many local conflicts seems a plausible model for a second civil war.
Bex
And we would have won the war in Vietnam if we’d only pushed harder and stayed longer…
JPL
@PsiFighter37: That is really good. I might copy that and of course, I’ll credit you.
Villago Delenda Est
Lincoln fucked up and treated the defeated rebels in a civilized manner, and look what that’s give us to deal with now.
Next time, no quarter for the fucktards.
Stillwater
@Cacti: In the OP, Doug said that he doesn’t think it’s a big deal politically. I’m not sure exactly what he means by that, since he then says that it’s another nail on the coffin and all.
But the political dimensions of the shut down need to be distinguished from the policy outcomes.
FW all that’s W.
Cacti
@Raven Onthehill:
No social security retirement or disability benefits for recipients. Unpaid federal contractors. No reimbursements on Medicare and Medicaid. No unemployment benefits.
Nope, will barely be a blip on anybody’s radar.
Stillwater
@efgoldman: They thought they won the war before it even began, if I’m recalling the history correctly. Lincoln never recognized the legitimacy of secession. Unconstitutional!
AdamK
The Civil War ended? Why was I informed?
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Stillwater:
It’s going to be disastrous policy-wise, but politically, it’s not going to be anywhere near as damaging to the GOP as it should be. It’s going to be one more cut in the GOP’s eventual death-by-a-thousand, but they’ve virtually inoculated themselves from any short-term pain because ‘BOTH SIDES SAME THING’. I think that was the point Doug was getting at, and that we’re going to have to slog through and try to work long term.
Jake Nelson
The Civil War never ended, as we are reminded daily. It just became a cold war.
The North abandoned Reconstruction too early because the people were tired of paying to rebuild the South. Had it had time to complete, maybe it could have led to civilization down there. We’ll never know, though.
Davis X. Machina
@The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
It was, and in so many words. Not that anybody read it that way, or noticed the distinction…
JPL
@Jake Nelson: nah.. I live in GA and I’m convinced there is to much inbreeding.
PsiFighter37
@Jake Nelson: Actually, Reconstruction was abandoned primarily as a result of the election of 1876. In exchange for Rutherford B. Hayes winning the outstanding 21 electoral votes that gave him a 1 EV(!) margin of victory over Democrat Sam Tilden, the Radical Republican bloc agreed to end Reconstruction.
FWIW, that was the last election until 2000 where the winner of the popular vote (Tilden) was the loser in the Electoral College.
CaseyL
We’re already in another Civil War, a cold one. Neo-Confederates are undoing the results of the last one via obstruction, corruption and disinformation.
I wonder if they think bringing down the economy will point the way to turning the Cold War into a hot one. They’ve convinced themselves that Real America will rise up on their side.
When Timothy McVeigh bombed the Murrah building, he also believed Real America would rise up and follow his example.
The GOP is carrying McVeigh’s banner.
comrade scott's agenda of rage
@Jake Nelson:
The cause was the disputed election of 1876. In order to get their man Hayes into the White House, the Repups agreed to abandon Reconstruction.
Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
@Davis X. Machina: I think DougJ was signalling his casual contempt for the working poor, as he has done frequently in the past. I can’t see into his soul, but I know if I could, it would be an oozing, festering mess of beetles and cheese fly larvae.
PeakVT
I don’t know a lot about this blog Stan Collender’s Capital Gains and Games…
Collender is one of the few remaining moderate conservatives (think Norm Ornstein). He’s good for an insider-ish take on the budget and related matters, but he’s not something worth bothering with unless you have time to kill.
Davis X. Machina
@Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader: The gift of the discernment of spirits has not been granted to me.
Jake Nelson
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage: Both parties officially supported ending Reconstruction at that point, the election deal just moved up the timetable.
PsiFighter37
@efgoldman: That’s because the only ‘sensible’ Republicans left are a couple of the writers (like Larison and Josh Barro) and the ones played on teevee (like Will McAvoy).
Maybe you could theoretically count someone like Richard Hanna from upstate NY, but he’s just a backbencher no one has heard of. And relative to the Republicans of the past, he’s probably way more conservative anyways.
Stillwater
@efgoldman:
From Suderman:
This approach places great value on zeal and combativeness and isn’t very concerned with success.
Yes, that’s correct!
For that reason, it won’t produce the desired results at an acceptable political price.
Ehhhhh. Based on what evidence? The radical faction of the TP (the whole of it?) has been emoldened (God I hate that word!) to pursue their zealous objectives precisely because doing so yields political results.
The Dangerman
Not very good at history, are they? Assholes.
A shutdown sure looks likely, but, let’s face it, the main event is the debt limit; shutdown over a CR is just the undercard. There won’t be a default, but there will be a Cat5 shitstorm (with newscasters braving the elements, out in blowing and rising tide of shit, to boost ratings temporarily) before the match is over. How long can they hold out (to not give in to the Sheriff) before they have to go 2 for 1 on a CR and the Debt Limit?
Chris
@PsiFighter37:
FTFY.
Never, never blame General Lee, peace be upon his holy name. General Lee (peace be upon his holy name) is matched only by Ronald Reagan (peace be upon his holy name) in his utter inability to do wrong.
Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
@Davis X. Machina: I don’t have the gift of discernment either but if I did, I’d know what does the fox say.
schrodinger's cat
Default will have a disastrous affect on the currency derivatives markets, which is mostly OTC, between banks. The currency derivative market is much bigger than the credit derivatives market which imploded in 2008, so the result of the default could be 2008 * elebenty. Well done Republicans!
Chris
@PsiFighter37:
I thought the Radical wing of the party basically died in the 1870s, leaving the Liberal (heh) wing of the party, e.g. the robber barons, in full control (which is where they’ve been since).
Roger Moore
@Villago Delenda Est:
FTFY.
Roger Moore
@Stillwater:
It’s pretty clear that he thinks it will hurt them, but not enough to make them change their tune. The sum of all their dumb ideas will hurt them, but no single one of them will do enough damage to convince them to quit.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@Chris: Yep, it was Picket’s fault that following his commanding officers’ direct orders to march up hill into a mass crossfire while the Federal troops were taunting them with cries “Fredrickburgh!” got his men massacred. If Picket was only a better Southerner. I suppose Cruz sees himself as Lee this time around and the House as Pickett’s division.
schrodinger's cat
Trying to post the comment that WP eated, please ignore if the earlier comment appears.
Default will have a disastrous affect on the currency derivatives markets, which is mostly OTC, between banks. The currency derivative market is much bigger than the credit derivatives market which imploded in 2008, so the result of the default could be 2008 * elebenty. Well done Republicans!
gene108
@Villago Delenda Est:
As Lincoln was assassinated only a few days after the Civil War officially ended and the South surrendered, he didn’t get much of a chance to treat the South like much of anything.
The real problem we have is the T.V. and radio media, which went from a tightly regulated – relative to today – industry that government assumed existed by using a public good – the radio and T.V. airwaves – to an industry, where anyone with enough money to launch their own network or radio station can push out any point of view they want.
Since the people with money tend to be right-wingers, we get flooded with the right-wing talking points.
Therefore there is now a large subset of voters, who believe whatever misinformation gets thrown at them from Fox News, Rush Limbaugh, et. al. and can never be brought around to think of the U.S.A. and Americans as one people, who are not in a fight of us versus them.
On a side note, as terrible as Tuesday September 11, 2001 was, it actually cut through all the haze around our thoughts of us versus them and unified the country in a way that hasn’t happened in a long, long time. So much goodwill was there for a competent leader to use to make this a better country, but Bush, Jr. wasted it on getting us into a war of choice in Iraq that has only helped to further poison people’s distrust of government going back to Watergate and the Vietnam War.
I really do not know what it will take to bring out most Americans better angels these days.
I remember reading that a news report about hunger in America, back in 1968, led to Congress getting flooded with calls that we have to do something to help those poor people. I do not think that sort of goodwill will come out of folks in this country anymore.
The media continues to poison it by pushing an us versus them horse race narrative, because in every endeavor there has to be winners and losers duncha know.
Villago Delenda Est
@Roger Moore:
Yes, but it was his plan to deal with the defeated South in a civilized manner, and Johnson was impeached, basically, for following through on that.
It was a mistake.
Roger Moore
@comrade scott’s agenda of rage:
But why do you think the election of 1876 was close? It was because the Republicans’ policies, including Reconstruction, were losing popularity. If Reconstruction had gone smoothly, i.e. if it hadn’t been resisted tooth and nail by Confederate dead-enders, it wouldn’t have been an issue in 1876.
Cacti
@Chris:
The progressive wing of the Republicans had their final divorce with the party in 1912, when Teddy Roosevelt ran as the Bull Moose Party candidate and split the Republican vote, allowing Woodrow Wilson to cruise to victory.
Chris
@gene108:
Another reason to loathe C+ Augustus. He took a tragedy and spun it into something worse.
Cacti
@Villago Delenda Est:
Horse shit.
Andrew Johnson was a North Carolina Democrat and confederate sympathizer, who did his best to thwart reconstruction any way he was able.
PsiFighter37
@Cacti: Let’s get our facts right, he was from Tennessee.
That said, as a member of the political party that was basically on the losing side of the Civil War, he didn’t have any real power. I don’t know the history about him well enough (aside from escaping conviction in the Senate by a single vote), but he’s generally acknowledged to be one of the worst presidents in history.
Chris
@Cacti:
Their final divorce, yeah. But I thought they’d already de facto lost control for a while before that.
E.G, the right wing of the party took over in the 1870s and ruled through the Gilded Age. After the turn of the century the left wing tried to retake control of the party, but ultimately failed (the Bull Moose civil war you mentioned), which started the progressive exile over to the Democrats.
gene108
@Cacti:
Though born in Raleigh, he was the Union governor of Tennessee, when Lincoln tapped him to be his V.P. in 1864. I’m not sure how Tennessee has gotten to totally disown one of the worst Presidents in history, since they were responsible for his political rise, leaving NC to get stuck as being the only state to get associated with Andrew Johnson.
Cacti
@PsiFighter37:
He became a politician in Tennessee. He was born and raised in Raleigh, NC.
Not that there was a huge difference in the politics of either state in that era.
He also opposed any national legislation on voting rights for freed slaves, wanted to welcome unrepentant confederate government officials like Alexander Stephens back into the legislature as early as 1866, and vetoed civil rights legislation drafted by the moderate Republicans. The latter led to the moderate Republicans concluding that he couldn’t be worked with and empowered the radical Republicans to control the terms of reconstruction from that point forward.
He sucked.
Citizen Alan
@Villago Delenda Est:
Pretty sure Lincoln died before that call was made, although I suppose you could blame him for getting someone with Confederate sympathies installed as his VP, which was the source of a lot of Reconstruction era BS, but it seems churlish to blame someone for not anticipating their own assassination.
Keith G
Our political systems and process needs to be rebuilt, it seems. This is not unlike the systemic overhaul that came during the Civil War and it’s aftermath. We have a spoiled leadership and a very spoiled 50-60% of the citizenry who are willfully out of touch with what happens to societies that do not understand and ameliorate the dynamic of a permanent and growing underclass.
I am long-term optimistic, but mid-term fatalistic. Piecemeal bargaining in the near-term will not give us the correction we need. It will only prolong uncertainty and malaise. I fear that if Obama sidesteps the worst now, it will only reappear to be suffered eventually – maybe under worse conditions.
That is why I want him to not bargain, to not deal one bit. He has compromised in the past and now the beast has come back for more. And they will again and again until they get the eviscerations they demand. So let’s get it over with now. Let’s go to the brink and see if the entire GOP want to blow a hole in the bottom of the ship of state in these rough seas.
If they do, so be it. We will rebuild from the shambles without a Republican Party as we have known it. If we have the right leadership, maybe we can use the pain to make some modification in the Constitution in order to avoid a reoccurrence of this particular cluster-fuck.
We are not special. Other generations have dealt with pain, tremendous sacrifice and existential calamity – and the country moved right along and even got better for it.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
House Republicans: “We want a pony!”
Obama and Senate Democrats: “How about no.”
House Republicans: “Well, alright. We get 95% of what we wanted anyways.”
Stillwater
@Keith G: And they will again and again until they get the eviscerations they demand. So let’s get it over with now.
I agree. I wish courage and fortitude for all those Dimmycrats in marginal districts and in the Dem leadership. This is bullshit, pure and simple.
I doubt it’ll ever be over and done with, tho.
WereBear
They don’t do subtle.
Mark S.
Thread needs more Rutherford B. Hayes
peej
All I know is that as a federal IT contractor, if the shutdown happens, I’m going home without a paycheck. I can live with that as long as Obama and the Democrats stand firm on the debt ceiling vote, which is the much more important one in the grand scheme of things.
b
Washington (CNN) – House Republicans have added a measure aimed at limiting contraceptive coverage to the spending bill coming up for a vote Saturday night, a spokesman for Rep. Tim Huelskamp, R-Kansas, told CNN.
http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/09/28/gop-to-add-conscience-clause-to-spending-bill/
And their war on women continues! What does this have to do with a CR?
Bob's Had Enough
I’m hearing what I think is a clear message from PBO that it’s time to eliminate the threat of halting funding as a negotiating tool. Kill it.
The economy isn’t terribly fragile right now. The stock markets are at record highs. We’ve basically removed ourselves from foreign wars. This might be as good a time as ever to take this sick dog of a political tool out behind the barn and shoot it.
Sure, it will hurt us some and make us feel bad for a while, but it’s the right thing to do.
PBO seems to be telling the Republicans – “No, never again. Threatening to shut off money will never again work.”
They won’t believe that until they try it and find that it no longer functions. They’re so caught up in their delusional bubble that they aren’t able to think outside of it.
I have a feeling we should buckle in and get ready to ride out a shutdown and deal with it. Not silently, we should rail at those in the House who have done this to us.
If following presidents have the same resolve PBO seems to have this should be the last time for this foolishness.
The way it will play out is that Obamacare will go into action on Tuesday, the day after the Senate returns to session and tosses things back into the House’s lap.
People will wake up on Wednesday and find that those who had health insurance still have it.
A week later we’ll largely be over Obamacare anxiety and well-focused on the shutdown.
If you live in a Republican state or district you should get ready to burn up the phone lines with –
“You shut down the government over what? Obamacare? What the hell were you thinking?”
Full Metal Wingnut
@PsiFighter37: I think this overstates the role of the compromise. Reconstruction ended because Democrats regained a lot of ground in the states and Congress. There were enough Democrats in power and non Radical Republicans that continuing Reconstruction would have been astronomically difficult even if Hayes had unambiguously won the election. And even if Hayes walked away from the compromise, a Democratic president would have effectively ended Reconstruction.
The compromise of 1877 was the culmination of electoral/political realities that spelled doom for Reconstruction, not a single event.
James E. Powell
@Roger Moore:
1876 was not about any failure of Reconstruction. Both parties ran on ending it.
Just One More Canuck
@Bex: We would have gotten away with it too if it weren’t for those meddling kids
Joshua Holland
Stan Collender is one of the country’s leading budget experts. Very tied in, and his blog is consistently excellent.
El Cruzado
Just chiming in to say that Antietam would make for a better comparison.