As Republican approval shits the bed in the latest polls, we’re starting to get some interesting analysis. Let’s start with this sweet item:
GOP pollster Bill McInturff writes clients on this week’s NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll: “Overall, this is among the handful of surveys that stand out in my career as being significant and consequential, so, I wanted to make sure you had an opportunity to review the survey.”
“I would also say this about my general experience with this type of data – 9/11, Hurricane Katrina, Lehman collapse, debt ceiling in 2011 – once there is this level of movement and change, it takes months for things to settle down in a way that is stable and easier to understand. This type of data creates ripples that will take a long time to resolve and there will be unexpected changes we cannot predict at the moment as a consequence.”
On Thursday, Nate Silver came out of hiding to say, essentially, calm down — next year is still going to be tough for Democrats and we don’t have enough data to show that 2014 will be the year Democrats take back the House. Sam Wang thinks there’s enough data to say something, and he thinks there’s been enough of a swing to make the House a toss-up, and that gerrymandered districts are in surprisingly bad shape.
Wang’s analysis is based on MoveOn/PPP polls of a number of Congressional districts, but Nate Cohn thinks PPP’s weightings are wrong, despite their good track record. I don’t know enough about poll weighting, but looking at this table of the latest PPP poll at DKos Elections, I don’t see anything surprising. A group of Republicans from districts that Obama carried by a couple of points, or lost by a couple of points, are mostly in trouble. Some of them are in really big trouble: Fred Upton, in MI-6, is 20 points under a generic Democrat after PPP primes the pump by telling respondents that Upton is responsible for the government shutdown.
A place like MI-6, where Obama got 49% of the vote in 2012, shows just how toxic the Tea Party is to moderate Republicans. The spectre of a Tea Party challenge accompanied by millions of Koch-funded ads keeps Upton in line with the suicide caucus, but it’s also making him a less attractive candidate for 2014. If a Tea Party challenger did beat Upton in the primary, s/he would get killed in the general. The hard core TP’s don’t have anything to lose by being as radical as possible, but, as this poll shows, the Republican Party sure does.
I realize this is all speculation at this point, but it looks like a positive outcome is downright possible!
BTW, the Senate 15-month debt ceiling bill is dying.
Villago Delenda Est
The monster is loose, and out of the control of its creator.
It couldn’t have happened to a nicer guy.
Suffer, idiots. Suffer.
Cris (without an H)
The key phrase for me is “against a generic Democrat.” Since the story of the last three elections is “the side that turns out its base wins,” generic isn’t good enough. These districts have to recruit strong candidates.
Has Bill McInastroturff been chased off by angry Teahaddists yet? The GOP is Evillene from The Wiz.
Since demorats do not have the free echo chamber the asswipe thugs do, Nov 2014 is a generation away. No way the current affairs have any significant effect except for a few purple districts that are close to being blue. Facts don’t have the fire to excite the masses that eight second lie’s carry or the standard fake news program (Like when the wshington post writer claimed that VP Gore said he invented the internet. That eight second sound bite lie allowed the murder of a few hundred thousand human beings and wrecked our economy.)
Republicans filibustered it. They learn nothing.
If Republicans aren’t willing to raise the debt ceiling and fund the government at pre-sequester levels for a year, Obama shouldn’t give them anything(including delaying the medical device tax).
Actually, Nate Silver’s post took a gigantic shit on PPP comparing them to shady pollsters like Rasmussen. He, along with Nate Cohn, have been on a tear to destroy PPP’s reputation. It’s pretty slimy behavior especially when PPP has had such stellar results the past 3 cycles.
I think the Nates are both wrong in thinking that these polls are fleeting and that the GOP will hold the House easily. This reminds me of the overreach during Terri Shiavo that helped lead to the House flipping. Both times the behavior by the GOP House was so bizarre and needlessly cruel that average Americans stopped their lives and paid attention to the crazies. The GOP has no narrative for why they shut the government down and why they won’t raise the debt ceiling. People will remember this behavior when they go to vote next year and it won’t be pretty for the GOP.
Plus, we all know this won’t be the last time the GOP House overreaches before the 2014 election.
Villago Delenda Est
Via Powder Blue Satan, we’re offered this example of why the GOP is doomed.
I was thinking after a post here the other day about how parties shift over time. The post suggested that the baggers would succeed in tearing the GOP apart because business would defect as the crazy really took hold. That got me thinking about how the parties flipped positions on race. Once the Dems embraced equity the GOP went full white hood. Since the GOP was strongly in the pocket of owners the Dems stood with workers.
Could we be on the dawn of the Dems becoming the party of the owners (certainly the DLC would love that) leaving the GOP flip-flopping its populism into the sort of working-class programs the Dems have worked for years? Obviously this would be a problem with their hate brigade because it would have to include people of color & immigrants. It wouldn’t happen over night or even during this decade but if you were the GOP and had lost the business interests where else are they going to go?
I don’t see it. The GOP has drank the haterade for so long, they can’t pivot.
@Villago Delenda Est:
Shorter Teanuts: WOLVERINES!!!
This is all speculation unless the Democrats make a serious effort to put up candidates in all of the GOP districts. Some of these GOP jokers don’t get any general election challenges.
Bring back Howard Dean’s 50-State organizational plan.
@askew: Nate Silver has become a tool of the MSM. His wishy-washy posts during the 2012 cycle infuriated me, mainly because if he was still just some smart guy named after a pepper at GOS, he would’ve written in an entirely different fashion.
Methinks these guys are bitter at PPP because they don’t do things the way they ‘should’ be done, yet their record is still very good. And if a pollster becomes the gold standard, what point is their existence?
Cris (without an H)
@Schlemizel: Won’t happen, because the frothing-mouth base are useful idiots for the plutocrats. The people on our side wouldn’t buy what they are trying to sell.
Accepting Silver’s and Cohn’s thesis requires one to accept new information cannot change the electoral environment. As soon as this is stated it is clear it is nonsense.
All that can be reliably stated 13 months from the election is the electoral environment is shaping against the GOP. There are too many Known Unknowns and Unknown Unknowns between now and November 2014 to be able to say anything else worthwhile.
These are mostly competitive districts. I would be surprised if we don’t field candidates against all of them. DCCC has had great luck in recruiting since the shutdown. I expect we’ll see announcements in the next month or so for most of these seats. The DSCC has already had great success in recruiting. We have top tier candidates everywhere except SD.
I think it is more than that. With both Nates, it seems personal like they are trying to take PPP down. It’s absurd. With Silver transitioning to sports, I hope we don’t have to hear from him on politics. He’s like Ezra Klein. Fine when doing wonky stuff but a complete idiot when it comes to punditry.
As I said, not soon, for the same reason you cite.
Where else are they going to go? I don’t see us being a nation with a real Libertarian, teabag, Independent, Dem and Rep mix in politics. Eventually it will return to a two-party system and if the Dems have business and everything else but the crazies? They could try to regain the business faction but not without losing the crazies, it seems to me that twisting their populist rhetoric could do the trick.
I think the Dems went for Civil Rights under FDR and the shift took decades but by 1968 it was well enough established that the GOP filled the void (and VOID, in the medical sense, is an operative term when speaking of the GOP). 30 years is a long time, its possible
dpm (dread pirate mistermix)
@askew: Yeah, Silver hates PPP but he still uses their data, but he says he’ll underweight it next time.
Personally, I think it’s a damn shame the conversations between Martin and the GOP Congressperson are on hiatus.
That was the kind of trenchant insight we could make use of as we get to crunch time.
Villago Delenda Est
It is WAAAAAY to early to make predictions, because the situation is so volatile right now, and while it’s true that the electorate has a short term memory most of the time, major shocks (like the Schiavo affair) do tend to leave more lasting impressions.
That’s the problem the GOP faces. They’re making a lasting impression with this bullshit.
Totally. Does anyone seriously think Rs are going to turn into a bunch of Doles and Rockefellers after this episode? These idiots have campaigns to wage next year, let’s not forget.
@Linda Featheringill: There was some muttering a few days ago that if the GOP filibustered the debt ceiling bill (as they just did), that would a trigger for our old friend the nuclear option. Wonder whether Reid and the other D Senators will play that particular card.
If they do, the screaming will be audible from the Moon.
@dpm (dread pirate mistermix):
Which makes no sense because PPP has been among the most accurate pollsters for 3 cycles now. Weighting Rasmussen makes sense because they flood the market with bad polls that skew his results. He’s making his model less accurate by weighting PPP though.
Senate Republicans have filibustered the debt ceiling vote. Does that mean Reid will use the nuclear option?
IMO, I disagree with the contention that the gerrymandered districts are “shaky”. Has anyone seen the platform for the guy who is challenging Rep J Amash? This is the “business people’s” idea of a solid, responsible candidate.
IMO, Never Happen.
The people who select GOP candidates by voting in GOP primaries won’t allow the GOP to pivot. Primaries are base elections and the base of the GOP are our old friends the Fundie/Cons rebranded as Tea Baggers. They aren’t going to change.
Villago Delenda Est
That’s the main point of my link way above…that the people who make the most noise that the GOP hears are THRILLED with this situation. They are vocal, they are totally detached from any semblance of reality, and they create the illusion that they’re the “voice of the people”. At least for some “moderate” GOP congresscrittter. It doesn’t help that their own staffers filter out any voices but those of these loons so that they get the impression that they’re on track here.
To an extent, aren’t Wang and Silver (out of my head masked man imagery, out out out I say!) rather reacting exactly as their models do? Silver bringing in all sorts of priors and other data and Wang sticking strictly the poll numbers and examining them from all different directions. Rather liked having them both to bounce between in my own mind. Then, in this current instance, personally, I’m not interested in polls as predictions, I’m interested in polls as thermometers, because those numbers can still scare the pants off politicians (as thermometers -> barometers -> rain gages -> rear view mirrors)
I trust in Nate Silver and Sam Wang. Nate’s whole piece was a cautious ‘wait and see’ because 2014 is a ways off and the Repugs have no monopoly on stupidity. He doesn’t like the methodology of PPP, does not equal he is on a PPP bashing spree. The House is not the only place can overreach. Let’s see what happens with Cory Booker and McCauliffe before we start taking a positive view of 2014. Retaking the house is going to require a lot of work and driving people to the polls. I like being the underdog for keeping our butts to the fire.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
Heh. That oughta make for some more interesting emails. But those idiots are also regular voters.
@Corner Stone: You’re probably right. Pity though.
@PaulW: And you can ultimately blame Nancy SMASH for that. Why? She’s the one that put Steve Israel, and DWS before him, in charge of the DCCC.
As I live in the deep, darkest heart of wingnutville I have been patiently waiting for one of the nutters to post something on our local neighborhood message board on this whole shenanny.
Like a Crouching Tiger or a Hidden Dragon, I wait…
Surprisingly, they haven’t been saying anything about anything except for very, very local politics.
@dmsilev: The time for that was long ago. We could have had a chance to force through either decent legislation (even after moderating and tinkering), or forced this kind of crazy ass fight way before it costs the US real money and hurts real people.
Turns a Cat 5 shitstorm into a Cat 6 (read: off-scale); can’t see it happening.
Does Soonergrunt’s underground bunker have room for one helluva party? I suspect the next few days shouldn’t be experienced sober; shit’s about to get real.
@Feudalism Now!: Let’s see what happens with Cory Booker and McCauliffe before we start taking a positive view of 2014. Retaking the house is going to require a lot of work and driving people to the polls.
That won’t tell us much. Booker is going to win by 10+ in a low turn out election. And Chris “Stop ignoring me, Springsteen!!!!” Christie will probably, and sadly, win by the same amount a few weeks later in a bigger turn out election. I live in the Philly TV market and have yet to see either a Lonegan commercial or a Barbara Buono one.
@Corner Stone: Very true, but it sometimes takes a crisis to focus people’s minds. Especially people who are as hide-bound and “tradition-respecting” as some of the senior Democratic Senators.
Anyway, current reporting is that Reid gave Susan Collin’s “compromise” proposal the middle finger, which apparently was enough to get Yertle the Turtle to emerge from the cave where he’s been hiding from his primary challenger and start talking.
He’s going to need that hydraulic jack in there because all the rest of us are going to pile on top of it clamoring to be let in.
Although I can’t see myself going to OK for sanctuary from the crazy…
@The Dangerman: What other options does he have? Serious question.
I read an article about an employee at the Pentagon who had been furloughed due to the shutdown. He (he didn’t leave his name in the article) said he didn’t mind since he felt the ACA would turn the US into a socialistic state. It’s people like him I really don’t feel sorry about.
On the other hand, one would have to assume that most of the other federally employed people would think twice about ever voting GOP again.
Good God! The Senate’s negotiating team is Susan Collins and fucking Joe Manchin!?
Son of a bitch.
@Villago Delenda Est: Coincidentally, I was just reading the same article. I know there have been psychological studies showing conservatives tend to be more authoritarian in their psychological makeup. I would like to see a study showing any link between conservatism and ungrammatical, spittle flecked ranting.
@Corner Stone: ChiTrib is examining in depth the trauma of losing a chain of grocery stores. I mean, yes, I understand groceries are one of the few areas where local names are maintained when larger chains swoop in because of the feelings and loyalty, but seriously, as the most important thing facing us? How very very reassuringly a ChiTrib reaction to Repubs leaking blood into the water.
“The rabbitt hole of going down the Ted Cruz strategy of defunding Obamacare”
FSM bless me, but I’m starting to actually not want to strangle Luke Russert.
I doubt Reid uses the nuclear option, but he did get Senate Republicans, whose hands have been relatively clean during this dumpster fire, on record blocking an extension of the debt ceiling.
Fuck if I know, but we’re about to find out who wears the Big Boy pants in DC.
@askew: With both Nates, it seems personal like they are trying to take PPP down. It’s absurd. With Silver transitioning to sports, I hope we don’t have to hear from him on politics. He’s like Ezra Klein. Fine when doing wonky stuff but a complete idiot when it comes to punditry.
Nate is still better than Klein. Klein has always wanted to be a Villager. Just look at how long he treated the Zombie-eyed Granny-starver as a serious policy wonk even after Krgthulu called him a troll.
@Corner Stone: No, I think that one’s gone down in flames already. Here’s TPM from about 30 minutes ago:
@Corner Stone: Yeah, no point pulling out the nuclear option for something that the House would just kill anyway.
@scav: The ChiTrib’s edit page is Wall Street Journal lite most of the time.
Take a couple of ibuprofen and lie down for an hour or two; the feeling should pass. If it lasts for more than four hours, seek immediate medical attention.
@dmsilev: I saw that, and am guessing now that it was always a ploy to draw McConnell out of turtle hole, and get him to stick his neck out on the chopping block.
But the exclamation was really, “If these are the two people trying to make a deal we (as in leftish side voters) are well and truly fucking fucked.”
@Hill Dweller: But what do these “on record” votes matter? “I voted for it before I voted against it” was a non starter for Kerry and it is simply useless as an explanation of anything in front of a hostile or in front of a favorable audience. GOP primaries are going to be increasingly like watching a group of rabid weasels attack each other and the remaining voters will just have to stand by and stand agape at the horror. In some districts it won’t matter because the remaining non crazy voters will still be in the minority so their viewpoints won’t matter. Those districts will simply sheer to the right and never come back and as long as they can suppress democratic voters they’ll do fine. Meanwhile in mixed districts or districts trending democratic one vote here or there in the Senate, under such confused circumstances, will remain neither here nor there.
‘Skewed?’ Where have I heard that recently. Oh yeah, Ted Cruz over at Values Voter, giving his opinion of the Republican poll numbers going into the toilet. The polls are skewed of course. Which is what they were all saying about the polls in 2012, right before Romney’s big win.
@fka AWS: Oh yeah, since forever, bout the only reason I watch it is to see what they’ll come up with next. I’d be a Cubs fan for similar reasons (watching them come up with new ways of doing what they’ve always done best), except I rather like the Cubs.
@Villago Delenda Est:
The most hopeful sign I’ve seen is the August Poll showing the GOP has gone from +21 to +6 in with senior citizens. And that was before the shutdown. IF that carries through – and there’s no solid assurance it will – any GOP Representative that is in a district Obama won in 2012 is in deep kim chee. Further it shifts the extreme gerrymandering of GOP districts from a net positive to neutral or net negative — impossible to state which of the last two as of Oct. 12, 2013.
All of the above needs to be glossed with this chart. Note the GOP had a favorable rating of 31% in 1999 yet were able to elect Bush in 2000. I’m going to venture to say a goodly chunk of the GOP’s low rating comes from the GOP Fundie/Con base outraged at the GOP for not implementing Tea Bagger Public Policy; these people, at voting time, will most likely still pull the lever for the candidate with an R next to their name.
At the end of the day in 2014 elections, there will still be a black guy in the WH.
That simple and inelegant fact is more than enough to give them license to believe any crazy interpretation of reality and/or misremember any inconvenient fact that they need to.
They will go to the polls and they will pull the lever for the crazy.
Can we make up ground? I think yes. But to believe at this point that gerrymandered districts are “shaky” is akin to prognosticating malpractice.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
Worth keeping in mind that Gerrymandering isn’t magic GOP pixy dust – it’s done with the assumption that the voters are conservative, and the House GOP has been everything but conservative in their behavior. Most of the GOP voters are people who are retired or looking at retirement and the last thing those people want is the huge economic upheaval the House GOP is attempting.
@aimai: Republicans believe they can take the Senate in the mid term elections. Consequently, they were eager to cut a deal before the shutdown, and are eager to cut one now. They’ve also been very quiet throughout the shutdown, keeping the spotlight on the House, in hopes of avoiding blame.
Reid forced Senate Republicans to filibuster a debt ceiling extension. I guarantee the Senate Republicans wanted to avoid that vote. Now they’ll be lumped in with the House kooks.
Villago Delenda Est
To paraphrase Lt. Cdr. Montgomery Scott, “the best negotiator I know of is a fully charged phaser bank.”
The good news in all of this is that it looks like Obama and Reid are in agreement that they hold the cards here. We’ll see what the filibuster spin comes out as – it could be a moment of clarity for at least a few folks in the media (see CS’s note that Luke has gotten noticeably less dickish in the last week). Normally a defeated bill reflects poorly on the leader, but it may not in this case because obstruction is so clearly the narrative out there.
But Dems should be able to run out the clock here if they and the base can tolerate the short-term pain to the nation.
@Villago Delenda Est: The House wingnuts still think they have leverage. Bless their hearts.
@Hill Dweller: The Senate doesn’t benefit from gerrymandering. So the state-level strategy that emboldens the House doesn’t carry to the Senate or presidency. They’re wedging their own party not on ideology but on electoral calculus.
Villago Delenda Est
The deserting coward lost the election. He was appointed by five felons on the Supreme Court, who should all swing (save the one who is already dead, thank FSM) for their outright failure to pay the slightest attention to their oaths of office.
The recent poll numbers are very significant, but the single most important ingredient to what happens in 2014 is what the leadership of the Democratic Party does with this temporary advantage.
Maybe they will settle on a simple and strong narrative that will increase the power of the position they are currently in. Possibly they will find a way to dilute the strengths that they currently enjoy.
Obama and the Democrats certainly have the ball in their court now, hopefully they will find a way to play it successfully.
Villago Delenda Est
The loons actually think they have a realistic shot at impeaching and removing Obama from office.
This demonstrates just how much it would be prudent to lock them up in padded cells.
@Enhanced Voting Techniques: But are they smart enough to connect the dots? Personally, I think GOP’s survival chance is huge because their voters are dumb and they will always, always vote against their own interests, as long as it means it will be even worse for the blacks, browns and gays.
the part that appears to be lost on these guys is that if they want Obama to concede something from the already agreed upon legislation that simply needs to be acted upon in order to defuse this crisis is that they are unwilling to see the need to offer anything in return. Anything else and its still extortion and as such, the Dems and the Prez would have to be well nigh stupid to accept it (not saying that couldn’t happen, yet…).
So really GOP, you want to delay the medical devices tax in order to show that this entire fan dance nets you “something”, then what pray tell are you offering in return for this “concession”.?
Silly rabbit. There are no moderate Republicans.
No, the Republican party nowadays is characterized by this retired doctor who describes Obamacare as “the worst thing since slavery.”
Two things here, IMO.
1. The initial “compromise” was an out and out theft and win for the R’s. That number is ghastly, and gave them what any reasonably crazy R politician could’ve crowed about for weeks. It hurts real people.
2. They definitely are offering “something” to end this crisis. More spending cuts to offset. This should be very clear to all here. The D’s gave them their number and they said, “Fuck you. Pay me.”
With enough advertising the Koch brothers will ensure their tea baggin buddies, stay in the lime light and get their message out. What always suprises me is how many people think they have anything in common with the Koch brothers and their political/business agenda.
The Democrats will hve to stay on top of things to ensure their lead in the polls is still there when the voting takes place. Obama can not be seen to be “caving” to the tea baggers. He is the President. The teabaggers are simply looking silly repeating the same things over and over. They don’t answer questions, they simply repeat their mantra.
Many Canadians are watching all of this with great interest. A major concern is the tea baggers will use the Keystone pipeline as a bargaining chip. Canada doesn’t need the Keystone pipeline and neither do the Americans but Koch and his teabaggers want it to make even more money. There is concern the tea baggers will pass the budget in exchange for the Keystone Pipeline.
@Villago Delenda Est: But the point remains – the public will remember a 2 week shutdown for all of 2 weeks. A year out, they’ll only remember it when the Dems bring it up in ads, and aside from people that were really directly affected, they won’t give a shit.
No, the greater psychological impact will be on Congress and the activists. If they come out of this demoralized, they may well double down on their demands over the next year and head into 2014 even more out in the weeds. Or they could come to their senses and moderate a bit (which is almost impossibly unlikely).
Its telling that Cornyn is running ads to protect him from the right. That’s not the result of the polling, rather where he thinks the activists are going to drive him.
All true. And now is not the time for the Senate Dems to pull the nuclear option on the filibuster. First of all it just muddies the water when they are winning the essential argument. Secondly, it has no chance of producing any real result. If the Republicans take the Senate in 2014 they will be the ones demanding to end the filibuster. Let em. We still have a veto in the White House. The real results of this will be felt in 2016.
I think a clean cr and a year-long extension of the dc is actually a gift to the Republicans. Six week or sixteen week delays put them right back at shutdown and default. The elephant in the room that the media ignores is the fact that these crazies are never going to negotiate a budget.
Villago Delenda Est
The Rethugs are cleverly maneuvering themselves into the position that Danny DeVito found himself in Ruthless People; Obama and Reid are Judge Reinhold and Helen Slater, who previously were lowering their bargaining position for Bette Midler, are suddenly in a spot where they can demand a premium in return for getting DeVito off the hook.
I would have never guessed Kevin Kline was close to the same age as De Niro and Michael Douglas.
I don’t know why not, I just would not have.
@dogwood: No matter what, the R’s are going to come out of this declaring they won. Just like Boehner last time with his, “I got 90% of what I wanted”.
Except this time, if we fund the govt at sequestration levels moving forward for a year of so, they will be undeniably right instead of merely arguably right.
If Mark Kirk, a senator from a very blue state, can join a filibuster of a clean debt ceiling vote without fear of consiquance then republicans have nothing to fear.
@Anya: Not a blue state, it’s a very big blue city, with blue islets in a sea of collar counties and downstate. Don’t confuse maps with ground conditions.
@dogwood: As I understood it the Nuclear option was to blow the filibuster up once and for all In that case it seems to me that the dems should pull the trigger now so that they can use it again later.
@aimai: I think in order for the nuclear option to really prove the necessity of doing it requires a legislative victory, and they won’t get that here. Perhaps if we’re right up against the wall on the 17th it’ll make sense as a ‘this is how desperate Democrats are to avoid default’ it’ll work, but here it’ll just fail and be forgotten as we look at tomorrow’s proposals.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@scav: Also presdential elections with off-year or state races. As of 2010, MA, IL, NY, and CA had had more years under Republican than Democratic governors over the previous twenty-five years. Democrats have won ME in presidential contests by increasing margins since 1992, but we’re still saddled with Susan Fucking Collins. That said I think Kirk is a fluke and the Democrats ought to be able to beat him, but that’s not till 2016, I believe.
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yeah, Kirk got in as part of the 2010 GOP wave. Illinois has been fairly solidly Democratic in Presidential races, so if there’s a good challenger in 2016 Kirk would definitely be vulnerable.
That asshole made a similar prediction at some point the last election cycle which ended up being proven a joke. Only a moron at this point would give this kind of prediction from him ANY kind of weight.
@Villago Delenda Est:
It was close enough that they were able to throw the election to him. IIRC the Florida ballot was very confusing. Buchanan wracked up ~20,000 votes in the Little Old Jewish Ladies precincts which is hard to fathom unless one knows there were plenty of complaints from voters in the LOJL precincts about the ballot.
Amazing co-inky dinky, I’m sure.
West of the Rockies
It strikes me that a whole passel of conservative pundits have gone full-on TP. Rush, Hannity, Lars Larsen, et al, are referring to Cruz and Rubio & Co. as heroes. They’re riding the bandwagon, but when it all blows up in their faces (and it will), they’ll no doubt find a way to continue making millions and fleecing their followers.
FWIW, I live outside NYC and we have been flodded with Lonegan ads trying to tie Booker to Obama/Obamacare for the past month or so.
Absolutely. But policy wins for the GOP aren’t really the point are they? They’re addicted to the fight. Perpetual war. And it’s a culture war not a policy war. I’ve always said that the election of Barack Obama was more culturally significant than purely politically significant. I figured his election would mean we’d see some decent democratic policies enacted, and that indeed has happened. But more importantly he ripped open the racial and urban vs rural divides that have defined this country for centuries. The Republican Party isn’t going anywhere in the near future, but they have pretty much mined all the votes they can get. Old, rural, white downscale voters aren’t ascending in this culture. The next 20 years are going to be interesting.
This matters in house races but not in a statewide elections.
Kirk barely beat a very flawed candidate in an off year election. He should be very nervous in a state that Obama won by 61.9 percent.
He’s also had some serious medical issues. Not moderating probably means he’s not running.
Keep fucking that chicken.
This is the thing. Giving them enough of a beating to suppress GOP turnout. Even if it doesn’t flip the House, pushback there and hurting them in the states is important.
Otherwise we’re stuck waiting for an overweight, seventy-seven year old smoker to croak.
@dogwood: I think we’re discussing parallel perspectives, and not really disagreeing.
My base contention is the R’s don’t give a shit about “policy” wins, and in that I agree with you. It’s about making loud noises and victimology, at this point.
However, the D’s seem to keep actually giving them cover to claim policy wins. And no matter what the R’s say they want, they do not want that. So why in the name of all that’s fuck and holy do the D’s keep giving them what they say they want? As some kind of palliative to reach a “compromise” ?
Like I mentioned earlier, the D’s made a deal to say yes to the R’s budget number. The R’s, in a 100% easily predictable move, said, “Fuck you. Pay me. (ala Goodfellows).
Which is a completely *rational* response given what happened the last freakin time the D’s negotiated with them in 2011 on this issue.
Yes, the R’s are bugnuts fucking crazy. But how can we sit here and say that some small part of their crazy ass actions are not rational when they keep getting what they want, and keep getting to go in front of a microphone and say, “We just fucked those guys! YEAH!” ?
That’s not solely a media invention, no matter how much we bitch about the MSM and shades of reality. The reality is they got their number this time because last time we gave them complete cover to try this bullshit again and again and again.
West of the Rockies
@Tripod: Unfortunately, if you’re referring to a Rush Limbaugh (he may not be 70, but he’s overweight and a major smoker), there will always be a new true believer/grifter to replace him. Breitbart drops dead and up pops a Dan Riehl. Shark teeth. If we could get the younger generation to start participating politically according to their potential, this country would swing left real damn fast.
Anyone have a good script for calling my senators. I am in Illinois so I am looking for praise for Durbin and scorching contempt for Kirk.
People need to read Wang’s analysis carefully. I can’t say how often the results of gerrymandering are misrepresented here and elsewhere. The issue isn’t making red districts stronger, it’s making toss-up districts red, and blue districts stronger. The fatal flaw in gerrymandering is when you lose, you lose big.
So either the Republicans hold the house or they get creamed. Here’s hoping for the latter.
If it works and it is easy, it will certainly be repeated. Maybe our side can stop making it so easy for the GOP.
Hopefully the Democrats can, with a dedicated effort, take advantage of the mistakes made by the conservatives. The Democrats have a story to tell about the means, ends, and necessities of good governance. GOP overreach has created a space to tell that story to an increasingly receptive audience.
I think it’s a misnomer to call them “toss up districts” when they’ve been gerrymandered. It’s more like piling every potential D voter in an area into one CD and then giving yourself a decisive edge in the surrounding drawn districts. They don’t make some solid D and others 50-50.
For example, when TX-22 went to Nick Lampson after DeLay scampered out of the race and out of town, that was due to the very gerrymandering DeLay had pushed for. However, if DeLay had stepped aside two months earlier, that CD would still have went to any un-named R on the official ballot.
Nick Lampson was/is a professed Blue Dog and just about as conservative a D as you can find in TX. And he still would’ve lost to candidate Pet Rock (R-TX) if DeLay wasn’t such an egotistical asshole.
The very next election Ted Olson (R-Not sure what day it is or where he’s at) cleanly pushed Lampson out.
They make some of the CD’s potentially a little sweaty about the outcome, but they don’t make them toss-ups very often.
Is there someone in the MSM I can pay to have them stop calling Senator Susan Collins a moderate Republican?
She votes the exact same way as the rest of the nutters, 99% of the time.
Anytime she proposes something it’s just as a way to put a gentle, sleepy face over the sheer ugly that would happen if the action were passed.
She’s an awful human being, as awful and ugly as any Mike Lee, Rubio or Rand Paul.
The GOP can relax. Obama and the Dems will reluctantly agree to cut Social Security and privatise Medicare so as to be bipartisan and collegial and stuff. Wouldn’t want to take unfair advantage while the other guys are down.
The Sheriff's A Ni-
@Napoleon: Every thread Professor Wang is mentioned, you’re here to shit all over him. Did he run over your dog or something?
@Corner Stone: Well, right. Instead of a cluster of 50% districts, they move most of the districts 55% red and make a 75% blue district.