Alex Pareene, in Salonon “the PR scam”:
… The only thing wrong with these “Game Change” books, besides the meaningless cliché titles, horrific prose, virulent sexism, heavy reliance on and implicit endorsement of the viewpoints and biases of plainly self-interested anonymous sources — OK, the primary problem with these “Game Change” books, then — is that people take them seriously. News anchors and pundits tell everyone that these books explain how or why a politician won or lost an election, or how they nearly lost. These books tell funny stories about famous people.
Here are some of the reasons why Barack Obama won reelection: because the Republican Party and conservative ideas are unpopular, because the economy was improving and the president’s approval ratings were decent, because incumbents win more often than not, and because his campaign was better at identifying, motivating and turning out voters. Here are some things that had very little to do with the president’s victory: His rebound performance in the second debate, Clint Eastwood talking to a chair, and his ability to tolerate golfing with Bill Clinton…
What you have is a load of information that you may find entertaining if you care about politicians and their teams as celebrities. It is a collection of funny and embarrassing stories about famous people, mainly, except it is a collection of funny and entertaining stories about famous people that is convinced that it’s very important and monumental…
***********
Now that the latest round of voting-related agita is over, what’s on the agenda for the evening?
catclub
The savvy also know that Chris Christie’s landslide win would look a lot less impressive if Corey Booker had been on the Senate election ballot on the same day.
Mnemosyne
If I want to read funny and entertaining stories about famous people, I’ll go to TMZ.com. But I’m not under any illusion that those stories mean anything about, well, anything.
Hill Dweller
This stuff is catnip for the congenitally stupid people who deliver the “news” and appear regularly on cable, because it allows them to avoid talking about policy.
sparrow
Sooo, I was amused by the plaintive cries of wingnuts that the Libertarian candidate in the Viriginia gubernatorial race was a ‘plant’ by Obama (personally!) to steal votes from the Cooch. I was clicking around the webs and found this:
http://www.nationalreview.com/article/362690/sarvis-libertarian-nope-charles-c-w-cooke/page/0/1
Apparently the fact that this guy, Sarvis, is socially liberal is not at all important to these libertarians! The key thing is being fiscally conservative. Oh… so I guess that makes them republicans. Right. Just checking!
(Another article made the claim that Sarvis voters would have preferred McAuliffe 2 to 1 in exit polls, so it’s possible the libertarian really did peel off dem votes. Given that the guy is staunchly pro-life, I wonder if some women went for him vs. sleezy McAuliffe?)
gogol's wife
That looks like a good analysis — I’ll have to read it later. These books are so infuriating. Although I did like the anecdotes about Romney and Christie.
catclub
The extremely slow recovery imposes pain on the middle and lower classes for a very long time, but it also makes it more likely that we are still in a ‘recovery and improving’ phase in 2016, rather than
‘recession after excessive exuberance’ phase.
I have mixed feelings.
brendancalling
Running 4 miles at 6:30; band practice; finishing up the latest Piggie of the Week (there is SO much B-roll of Chris Christie acting like an asshole)
catclub
@sparrow: I compared the VA Gov versus Lt. Gov elections and decided Sarvis took votes from Terry Mac. Looks kind of obvious.
bd of mn
I’m happy that my fellow suburban dwellers denied the morons who ran the city aground five years ago a second chance to do it again.
Other than that, today’s my last day at my current sucky job. I start a new, hopefully less sucky job next Monday…
piratedan
Using the Gladwell Corollary of political thought…. string together compelling and interesting anecdotal items and you get your own political Tipping Point. Fun to read, but then again, I’m a political junkie.
Jennifer
They missed the real reason Obama won: because people really really hated Mitt Romney.
Just Some Fuckhead, Thought Leader
Ouch, sounds like Alex didn’t get an invite to the book launch party.
Anoniminous
Kos has a diary up show the demographics yesterday’s Virginia Election. The story, except for African-Americans — Democratic voters didn’t vote.
Pre-election polling tells us the political support is there. It’s the actualization of that support that is the problem.
Given the turn-out demographics it’s a miracle the Governorship and Lt. Governorship was flipped.
(And now, back to work.)
R. Johnston
The latest round of voting-related agita won’t be over until there’s a winner in the Virginia AG race. That may, unfortunately, not happen for a while.
sparrow
@catclub: Run-off voting would be nice…
Baud
Heard a pundit say that Cuccinelli won independents, so Democrats should be concerned.
That argument makes sense when your guy wins. When he loses, not so much.
Chris
@sparrow:
If the Obama administration’s into ratfucking the opposition that way, I can only say that I approve wholeheartedly and think we should repeat the experience as often as possible. 1912, motherfuckers!
raven
Mahi, black beans, grilled avocado and pineapple/
danielx
Gosh, then there was that problem with every last one of the Republican presidential hopefuls being crazy, a complete mean asshole, or both, with their craziness and assholery (and those of their audiences) on full display during the primary debates. They might actually win a national election again if they could find a candidate who doesn’t come across as a crazy and/or mean asshole…such a person is exceedingly unlikely to make it through the primaries because the loonier and meaner a Republican politician is, the better their primary voters like it – as long as the craziness and meanness are draped in well-tailored sanctimony and phoney faith.
satby
Bad news: I got laid off. Good news: now I actually have time to try to write something for NaNoWriMo.
I get when I hear about kids going into IT these days; I was a highly rated senior manager, and even those jobs going off-shore. And when staff in India get too expensive, there are lots of other countries to send the work to with even lower wages. I told my kids to skip college and apprentice in plumbing.
ranchandsyrup
Going to do some grilling this evening and make some panko onion rings. Lots of prep but worth it.
danielx
@satby:
Sorry to hear your bad news, and I can certainly sympathize – I haven’t had a full time job (you know, with benefits and stuff) since I got laid off in 2009, though I’ve had lots of contract and part time work doing various things. Not something you want to hear, I know.
Told my nephew the same thing – plumbing cannot be done overseas and there’s certainly nothing wrong with being a decent godfearing plumber. Really only three things to remember: shit flows downhill, always wash your hands after work, and anything over forty hours is time and a half. The rest is detail…
scav
Quick visit to the local Thai Asian mercado, I am set for flavors one needs on drizzly chill evenings. Held off on the karela, maybe next trip.
Yatsuno
@danielx: And PLEASE learn the tax rules for independent contracting BEFORE you start doing it. It is nowhere near the same as when you’re working for someone, and I’ve had to help a lot of good trades folks get out of those huge messes.
lamh36
Wow. This is unexpected. You just never know what people are dealing with.
srv
There is no doubt in my mind that the Twilight crowd votes only on significant value issues and not something more pop.
McCaullife barely won against a moron and had to go all agita, all the time. Kudos. We’ll see how that works against his legislature dominated by morons.
Turgidson
@Baud:
The same exit polls show that Terry won “moderates” by 20+ points. So there are a lot of “Independents” who are reliable GOP voters with paper bags on their heads.
Knowing how indifferent the Dem base can be, I’m wondering if McAuliffe lost a point or two at the very end because so many polls were showing him coasting to victory, so the apathetic Dem-leaners had their excuse to stay at happy hour until polls closed rather than go vote. If so, those voters may well have cost Dems the AG race.
Gene108
@danielx:
The business type Rep winning in ‘Bana has me a bit worried.
The only material difference between the tea party types and “mainstream” Republicans is 1. The amount of time spent wearing tri-corner hats at political rallies and 2. The volume at which you demand candidates declare their loyalty to your principles.
Reagan and the Bushes got away with point two with a wink and a nod. Romney and McCain not so much. McCain got booed when he said Obama was born in America.
If the base realizes winning the “mainstream” way of a wink and nod to the crazies will get them farther along in implementing their agenda, then Republicans can slip in another Reaganesque politician, who can be charming enough to win.
Elizabelle
@Turgidson:
@Baud:
You wuz discussing “independents”? The scales finally fell from Chris Cilizza’s eyes. (Or maybe co-author Aaron Blake’s:)
6 Takeaways from Election Night 2013
Just like our pundits were the last to figure out who those Tea Partiers really are.
PS: I can remember how to spell Cillizza’s name by remembering “Cill my landlord.”
Elizabelle
in moderation. maybe one link too many.
Mnemosyne
@Turgidson:
Frankly, that’s usually what “independents” are. It’s become even more pronounced now that Republicans are taking aim at their own feet daily, but IIRC “independents” have always leaned right.
Turgidson
@Mnemosyne:
Yeah, probably. Although Obama won them with some room to spare against McCain, if I recall correctly. Then lost them by a few points vs. Mittens. So they are a fluid group, and probably include greater numbers of embarrassed Republicans than usual at the moment.
PsiFighter37
According to the VA SBE website, Herring is currently up by 32(!!!) votes.
Trollhattan
@lamh36:
Some call it “abuse,” I call it “a lifestyle.” But must add, she’s 51? Day-umn, doing something right. Snark aside, best of luck to her.
Trollhattan
@satby:
Well that just sucks. Good luck!
An HR friend has gone through innumerable offshoring rounds of IT and call center jobs to India, then Poland and now one of the Balkans (does it matter which?). If it weren’t for the SEC they’d have offshored portfolio management by now.
It’s depressing..
daryljfontaine
Michigan is continuing to create its own little fiefdom.
http://www.democracy-tree.com/breaking-house-passes-law-rig-courts/
burnspbesq
Hugo Chavez’ legacy.
http://my.earthlink.net/article/int?guid=20131106/7fb8efea-9674-40cf-bac6-acd0f05d7905
This is the “replace” that Republicans have in mind when they say they want to “repeal and replace” the Affordable Care Act.
Elizabelle
@Mnemosyne:
Yup. Comment in moderation, but even Chris Cillizza finally figured out that independents =/= rugged individualists:
Just like our pundit class were the last to figure out who the Tea Partiers really were.
feebog
I’m thinking Herring needs to get Al Franken’s team on his speed dial, stat.
different-church-lady
The only problem with sites like Salon… okay, one of the primary problems, is that they too are part of a massive political-porn universe that treats shit that actually affects real people as just a bunch of raw material for the entertainment machines.
And I don’t let us here at BJ off the hook for that. Yes, we do have real conversations about important stuff around here, but we also indulge in wanking and voyeurism. Perhaps not as frequently as some other places, but still.
different-church-lady
@Hill Dweller: Why would they want to talk about policy? The audience would leave in droves.
Elizabelle
@different-church-lady:
I think we might have been better informed, over the public airwaves, when we had less “news” available. It would seem the important stuff got covered.
eemom
Far from over. I’m ecstatic that Cooch and Eeeeyew are toast, of course, but I am disgusted as always by the low turnout and absolutely appalled at the AG situation.
@PsiFighter37:
That is good news though, thank you.
Lurking Canadian
I’m not so sanguine about the second debate. I can’t be the only one who was getting a kind of queasy sensation watching the red and blue lines creep closer and closer together at Nate Silver’s site before “Please proceed, Governor” put the thing away.
SiubhanDuinne
@catclub:
So, total coincidence that Christie decided to waste a metric shit ton of NJ resources by holding separate elections just a few weeks apart.
Are there any actual numbers out there to show how much more it cost to hold a special election than it would have to have the election for Senate on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November? Somehow, I don’t think Christie was all that concerned about Senator Booker’s putative seniority in the Chamber of Sober Reflection.
SiubhanDuinne
@Lurking Canadian:
The beauty part is, you don’t have to be. Obama won reelection.
SiubhanDuinne
@bd of mn:
Congratulations! And if the new job turns out not to be less sucky, I hope at least that it’s a different kind of sucky. That could be entertaining for a while.
gbear
@bd of mn: You must be in Maplewood. I grew up in North St. Paul. I’m glad to see that whacko couldn’t get re-elected mayor & I’m happy for every non-wingnut in Maplewood.
rikyrah
Here’s a trip down election memory lane…
Since I didn’t want Fox to spoil my Election Night, I had no idea about Rove until I saw it on Rachel Maddow’s opening segment the next night. I was like W-T-F?
It was obvious.
Those mofos thought that they had ‘ fixed’ Ohio.
But, somewhere along the line, the co-conspirators chickened out. They knew that the Obama campaign and the DOJ was on their asses like White on Rice, and they left Karl holding the bag.
When I found out that Willard’s SON was owner in the company of the electronic voting machines used in Ohio, the tinfoil hat was on point.
But, I was also fortified by the amount of early voting, and the fact that the County that contains Cleveland, one of the largest vote areas of OH, doesn’t use electronic machines for Early Voting – they only use paper ballots.
Watching Rove’s meltdown on Fox was fucking hilarious.
http://youtu.be/hkRe33nDF08
http://youtu.be/9TwuR0jCavk
SiubhanDuinne
@satby:
So sorry to hear that. Sucks majorly.
Sounds very promising. If your writing schedule permits, please keep us posted.
And good luck, all the way around!!
Hal
Based on the media coverage I saw today, if I had just skimmed the news I might have come away with the impression that McAuliffe lost
I’m also enjoying the anointing of Chris Christie as the second coming by our Liberal MSM. It’s not like they ever got that wrong. Maybe now that Christie is all but officially running the MSM will start covering his actual policies instead of his BOLD! personality.
BD of MN
@gbear: You are correct… I have no idea why she ran again, apparently losing the Democratic (!) congressional primary last year 95% to 5% wasn’t enough abuse. Hopefully the 67%-33% drubbing she took yesterday will scare her away for a little longer….
satby
@ everybody: thanks. I’m secretly slightly pleased; finances will suck but I had survived 3 layoffs before the axe finally got me so it’s a relief at this point. And I was beginning to set up a business of my own and planning to leave in about 4 more months if I had lasted that long. And I’m 58, so I’m hoping that my little business can keep me afloat until retirement because I really don’t want another corporate IT job!
snetzky
dont blame you. Ive been contracting (mostly through consulting cos.) and the pay is better and I get paid for ALL my hours. True, I have to pay my own med, vac, etc, but no reviews (that comes to my bank every Friday) and much less bullshit.
Matt McIrvin
@sparrow: I think Sarvis just failed to pull votes from Cuccinelli after getting people to say they’d vote for him in polls. The biggest difference between the polls and the actual numbers was actually in Cuccinelli vs. Sarvis; McAuliffe’s win margin may have gotten pulled down by Sarvis supporters coming back to the Republican.
Notice how Ron Paul was stumping for Cuccinelli right at the end; that might have been what that was about.