Richard is right – 6 million more Americans on insurance is great news. Here’s what isn’t:
Ed Kilgore has been calling this the “wingnut hole,” and many have been speculating about its size. How many Americans will go without health insurance simply because the GOP dislikes the president? Well, happy 2014, dear readers: initial estimates are in, and we have 5 million lucky winners!
These are mainly hard working poor people who would be getting Medicaid at no cost to the state (through 2016) but who won’t simply because the Republicans in their state threw a tantrum.
A few states (like Iowa) will probably find some way to take the free money the feds are handing out, as long as the program is called something like the “Non Obamacare Medical Workhouse Plan for Undeserving Moochers Who Should be Shamed”. The rest of them are just going to let people suffer.
bbleh
One hopes these people will vote AGAINST said Republicans, and perhaps even ORGANIZE to defeat them.
Alas, I would be willing to bet that large percentages of them nevertheless will vote Republican. Far too many Republicans are willing to doom their children to ignorance, themselves to hardship, their parents to poverty, and everyone in their family to ill health, solely from sheer blind hatred.
Eric
It is nothing compared to the suffering i must endure by having my (white man’s) tax dlollars used to help poor and needy (black) americans. Where will it end?
Betty Cracker
763K in Florida. Once Obamacare was enacted, Governor Voldy wanted to take the Medicaid expansion money (his healthcare business holdings would have benefited), but the wingnut legislature wouldn’t go along. I hope his opponent in the upcoming election (almost certain to be Charlie Crist) shouts about this gap from the rooftops. Even if Voldy ultimately wanted to take the fed $$, he ran against Obamacare and tried to undercut it at every turn. It would be delightful if that turns out to be his downfall.
gene108
If the beatings do not continue, how will moral improve?
Republican philosophy on dealing with poverty.
Citizen_X
@gene108: The 1% can only be motivated by golden carrots.
The poor can only be motivated by the lash.
Elizabelle
Do you think local residents writing letters to the editor explaining how the Obamacare refusers could benefit from signing up would have any effect? Maybe wingnuts wouldn’t tune it out if they heard it locally.
If you get them to really think about it — which clearly they haven’t — why should the libtards get all the healthcare while Wingnut Wally and his family get sicker, go broke, and their teeth go to hell too?
It’s one thing if Governor Voldemort put them in that situation. It’s another if it’s Wingnut Wally or Traditionalist Tess who is endangering their family’s health and stability, through sheer pigheadedness. How can they provide for their families and be in the proud 47% if they are too sick or injured to work?
Some of the deniers might be reachable.
MattF
I think the actual, true, real-world, etc. facts about Obamacare are gradually dribbling out into the general population in an under-the-radar fashion. It’s weird and pathetic that it’s happening this way, but it’s where we are. I suspect, strange but true, that even a good number of wingers have a lingering suspicion that people like Palin and Beck are not actually totally reliable sources of information about health care insurance.
Fred
@Elizabelle: You gots to unnerstan: It’s the will of God and they ain’t nuthin’ anybody can do abouts it.
J.D. Rhoades
Well, the wingnut uninsured can avail themselves of their favorite solution, the one they applauded in the Republican debates, and just die.
Fuzzy
The wingnut argument here in CA is the fine for not having healthcare must go away. Okay take it away and watch the signups soar just because no one is forcing them to do it. That’s the rub. Carrot vs stick.
MomSense
Perusing the headlines at the top right of the page, it appears that Moore considers the ACA “awful” and that there is a simple cure that will slash your heart attack risk by 80% so I guess going without health care is no big deal.
Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937
Raise the federal minumum wage to $15. Problem solved.
Cacti
Arizona, surprisingly enough, actually accepted the Medicaid expansion, with Jan Brewer leading the support of it.
This may have been her lone, worthwhile act since occupying the governor’s chair.
Another Bostplainer
That’s a Wingnut hole created by Republican led state governments. I’d like to know how many wingnuts in blue states won’t sign up for the ACA policies because Obama.
Belafon
@MomSense: As Mayhew printed from Moore:
When I read his article, I get the sense that Moore would have loved to have blown up the entire insurance system and started over (we’ve had that argument here before and I don’t want to rehash it), but he does acknowledge that Obamacare is helping.
Paul in KY
@Fuzzy: They sure love the stick when they are weilding it.
cmorenc
@MomSense:
Surprise! NewsMax lifted not just the lead Michael Moore quote COMPLETELY MISLEADINGLY out of context, but cherry-picked other quotes from Moore’s NYT editorial for the body of the NewsMax article misleadingly out of context as well, knowing full well that vanishingly few among their their target NewsMax readers would ever bother to follow the provided link to actually read Moore’s editorial itself. They also included a prominent facial profile photo of Michael Moore selected for its having caught him with with a look their audience is most likely to regard as the prototype of the sort of smugly condescending liberal they’d like to punch in the face.
Moore should have realized that the effect of framing part of his editorial in the fashion he did would do far more to aid the President (and the ACA’s) enemies than to enlighten its friends toward evolving and improving it. Even though he acknowledged that for all its flaws ” I would be remiss if I didn’t say this — Obamacare is a godsend.” – just not the true desired endpoint of health care reform (single payer, the object he was advocating in the editorial). He certainly could have chosen to address his advocacy in a way that didn’t provide such rich fodder for ACA’s enemies – but Moore is by nature a flame-troller, even often among the very people who should be his allies.
James E Powell
@cmorenc:
Query. If Moore did not criticize ACA, does his OpEd get published?
James E Powell
@bbleh:
I wouldn’t get my hopes up. The Republicans and the press/media have successfully obscured the who, what & how of the ACA. Democrats haven’t helped with weak or no advocacy in support.
catclub
@bbleh: “I would be willing to bet that large percentages of them nevertheless will vote Republican”
Well, no. For two reasons. 1. Even in Mississippi, the poor vote for the Democrats and the Rich vote for the GOP, just not quite as reliably as everywhere else.
2. The poor don’t vote as much, so they will be not voting against the the GOP. Which is the problem.
ET
I have to wonder which states whose official policy is the wingnut hole will eventually close it. I don’t expect them to necessarily do it while Obama is in office specifically so they can point to how “Obamacare” isn’t working (leaving out how they are helping to make it not work) but at some point in the future. Some are likely hoping for some savior president from their party to push to get rid of the whole thing.
Cacti
@ET:
That ship hath sailed.
2012 was their chance to strangle healthcare reform in its crib. By 2016, many millions of people will have benefited from the program, and are unlikely to just say okey-dokey about losing their insurance.
Belafon
@cmorenc: I would like to ask Moore about this:
I’m not sure which liberals he’s been talking too, but plenty have been criticizing it since it was first written.
catclub
OT, but not really. Also amusing. Not yet hyperbole and a half (but hyperbole is highly relevant!). I may try to come up with a suggestion on ACA signup rates.
http://mathwithbaddrawings.com/2013/12/02/headlines-from-a-mathematically-literate-world/
rikyrah
The ‘ problems’ with Obamacare has two main roots:
1. The states with GOP Governors who refused to expand Medicaid
2. The States with GOP Governors that refused to set up state exchanges
Who actually thought that the Feds would have to set up exchanges for HALF THE COUNTRY?
Cacti
@Belafon:
I must have imagined that contingency of liberals, shouting “kill the bill” from the house tops. Come to think of it, did they ever stop?
Cassidy
OT, Jake Tapper is still a tool.
Cassidy
@Cacti: Moore lives in his own world of martyrdom and self-importance, but once Greenwald cites him in his next bout of concern trolling, Moore will become a liberal god again.
Roger Moore
@cmorenc:
It is possible to take any statement out of context. There’s really nothing you can do that will prevent a determined person from twisting your words. Any way of talking about needed improvements in Obamacare will be taken out of context by opponents as proof that it’s a terrible program. You just have to live with it.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@James E Powell:
Nope. In the MSM, it’s acceptable to criticize Obama from either the left or the right, but outright support is not permitted. Only actual current employees of the administration are allowed to write supportive op-eds, and that’s because they can easily be dismissed as propaganda.
Villago Delenda Est
@Citizen_X:
Time to start motivating the 1% with tumbrel rides.
We’ll start by dealing with this guy.
Joey Maloney
@Cassidy: Pointing out Tapper’s toolhood (tooliness? toolnosity? toolishness?) is always on-topic.
Villago Delenda Est
@Commenting at Balloon Juice since 1937:
The other part of the solution, which no one dares to suggest, is a Federal Maximum Income. Beyond that point, taxation is at 100%.
We’ll make an exception for serious scum like the Walton heirs and Mitt Rmoney. Their tax rate will be 200%.
Patricia Kayden
@MomSense: Very disappointed with Moore’s irrational criticism of the ACA. Of course, most of the left wanted the single payer option but that wasn’t going to happen in 2010. Instead of criticizing the ACA, Moore and his ilk should advocate for its evolution and start pushing Hilary Clinton to reform the ACA when she becomes President.
Otherwise, he’s just a useful voice for the extreme right in their demonizing of the ACA.
Bill Arnold
@Villago Delenda Est:
Krugman sounded beyond irritated at that article. I don’t blame him, it was depressingly dishonest.
SiubhanDuinne
@MomSense:
Between “Awful Obamacare” and “Ban on Light Bulbs Begins Today,” I guess we are all just going to die here in the dark.
J.D. Rhoades
@Belafon:
He’s been saying pretty much that exact thing for a while now. Anything but single payer is “awful” in Moore’s eyes.
@cacti
That, and “people will be forced to buy shitty insurance they can’t afford”.
Patricia Kayden
@rikyrah: Given GOP opposition to the ACA, I don’t think anyone should be surprised that GOP-run states refuse to lift a finger to implement the ACA. We need to stop being shocked at GOP obstructionism and fully anticipate it.
Cassidy
@J.D. Rhoades: To be fair, I think all of us would have been happy to destroy our current for profit, insurance based system and do a single payer system. They just couldn’t see it for the fantasy it is.
Gene108
I posted this in another thread, but I will say it again.
We are at war with Republicans. Pointing out and notifying everyone “hey, look over here we have a weak point in our lines” will just make it easier for the enemy to attack and defeat you.
Elie
I really almost can’t stand “liberals” anymore. Constant, and stupid criticism is added to wingnut lies and makes it hard all around to accomplish any improvement on anything. Add to that, it helps inflame the impression that government does not work, cannot work, to the betterment of all — that all improvement must be perfect and 100% whatever their idea of it is. Mostly, it appears that the goal on both sides – wingnut and “liberal” is to express displeasure with the President and basically make sure that the perception is that nothing good is happening with health reform.
The “liberals” to me are beyond creepy.
Matt McIrvin
I think New Hampshire and Maine will expand Medicaid sometime in the next couple of years. In Maine’s case it’s purely the governor’s veto, and everybody hates him.
cmorenc
@Roger Moore: @Roger Moore:
True, but Moore went out of his way to make it far easier for them to do so, particularly with the quote Newsmax cherry-picked for its headline tag. Moore was trying to be provocative toward fellow progressives to arouse them to push for substantial improvements beyond simply accepting the ACA as accomplishment enough, but he needlessly made it far too easy for our enemies to use his words against him and us, in order to impede that very possibility.
feebog
It will be interesting to see what happens to Medicaid expansion in Virginia now that they have a Democratic Governors but the lower house still in Wingnut Republican control. I think there are going to be a few states that expand Medicaid after the 2014 elections; Maine and PA are two states that come to mind should the current Republican Governors be turned out.
rikyrah
This is why I continue to repeat that the Democrats need to have ads running around the clock in these GOP states of the WHITE working class/poor who now have healthcare in Kentucky.
Ask ad the end of the ad – you want to know the reason why they have healthcare and you don’t?
Because their Governor is a Democrat and yours is a Republican.
Elizabelle
@Fred:
At some point, you have to ask these folks if God gave them a brain so they could hide it in their ass?
Love that Elvis Costello song where God is regarding his creation and “wondering if I should have given the world to the monkeys.”
Shakezula
I think this is part of why a Democrat is about to take up residence in Virginia’s Governor’s Mansion.
True Cuccinelli is slimier than a bag of squashed slugs, but if he had said he would expand Medicaid, he might have won.
jacy
I fall soundly right into the middle of this coverage gap. I live in Louisiana and I’m self-employed. I make far too much money for Medicaid, and far too little money to pay for even the lowest insurance package available to me on the Marketplace. (It would literally be more per month than my — albeit cheap — mortgage.) The helpful guy at the exchange explained that I’ll qualify for an exemption so I don’t have to pay a penalty for not having insurance. But in the end, I will still not have insurance, like I haven’t had insurance for the last dozen years. And I hit the big half-century mark on Boxing Day, so until I make enough money to pull up stakes and move to another state, it’ll just be a race to see which comes first: if I’ll live long enough to qualify for Medicare or die of something that would have been treatable if I’d had even the most basic of healthcare.
Matt McIrvin
@ET: A few of them are blue or purple states where the Medicaid expansion happens to be held up by some Republicans who control a veto point in the state government. The next time that turns over, things can change, unless Republicans have ensconced themselves in some other veto point. And in the meantime, it can actually be used against them in elections.
Gene108
@Patricia Kayden:
I think the shock is more to do with the number of people, who whole heartedly support the GOP no matter what.
You would think supporting economic policies* that led to the 2008 economic meltdown, screwing up Afghanistan to the point we are still fighting there 12+ years later because they lied to go to war with Iraq would keep them from being taken seriously again for a long time.
It lasted all of one or two election cycles.
JoyfulA
@ET: Maybe Pennsylvania, whose GOP Gov. Corbett is unlikely to win reelection.
cmorenc
@Roger Moore:
True, but Moore went out of his way to make it far easier for them to do so, particularly with the quote Newsmax cherry-picked for its headline tag. Moore was trying to be provocative toward fellow progressives to arouse them to push for substantial improvements beyond simply accepting the ACA as accomplishment enough, but he needlessly made it far too easy for our enemies to use his words against him and us, in order to impede that very possibility.
Note: whups, my earlier post with this response somehow got corrupted with the wrong quote from your post. I didn’t proofread carefully enough before my editing time limit had run out.
WaterGirl
@rikyrah: Have you posted that over at booman tribune yet? Boo seems to have contacts/connections to the white house – he mentions it sometimes when he has gotten pushback from the whitehouse over something he’s written, so they clearly read his stuff.
He also has connections with some organization – maybe democracy for america?
He might be just the guy to get that little gem into some ad campaigns, one way or another.
PurpleGirl
@SiubhanDuinne: I’ve fought with one neighbor about light bulbs for a few years now. The 40/60 watt incandescent she might have bought this past week is different from the one she remembers from 10 years ago. Manufacturers have been changing the bulbs for a while now to make them more energy efficient. (I think it would be a bad store that had 10 year old merchandise still on its shelves.)
I began buying CFLs a few years ago and found that where my lamp said to only use a 60 watt blub I could instead use a lower watt CFL and get more light than the 60 watt incandescent. I do have to watch the height of a bulb because of lamp sizes, but I still get more light overall. My neighbor has refused to come to my apartment and see the difference.
Belafon
@Elie: Eh, it’s not like the Republicans aren’t poking around anyway. I think Moore’s line “Obamacare is awful” was not the best way to say it, especially when he contradicts himself later. “Obamacare needs improving” would have been better. But, then again, someone would have wondered who kidnapped Moore and what is this replacement we have.
WaterGirl
@jacy: That completely sucks. Completely fixable, too, if only we had more statesmen and fewer politicians.
I would surely not want to move to another state, but I suppose that might be an option if things got bad enough.
GregB
@Matt McIrvin:
NH needs to maintain the current Democratic Governor and polling shows she’s a good bet. They need to maintain Dem control of the huge NH House and I haven’t seen any polling as to that yet. Also need to pick up two state Senate seats and that could happen.
Davis X. Machina
@Matt McIrvin:
Won’t help if he’s re-elected in a 3-way race again.
Never underestimate how short-sighted and self-absorbed Maine ‘progressives’ can be.
jacy
@WaterGirl:
Oh, I wouldn’t mind moving! Back home to Colorado, or maybe New Mexico. If my freelancing keeps up the pace, it’s always a possibility.
Roger Moore
@PurpleGirl:
That was one of the big things that convinced me to switch. I want as much light as possible in my living space, so when I figured out I could use 100W equivalent bulbs in fixtures designed for a maximum of 40 watts of incandescent bulb, I was all over it. I was taking the power savings mostly in more light rather than lower power consumption, but it was still a big win.
Elizabelle
@Cassidy:
Meh, HuffPost loaded so slowly I don’t know what Jake Tapper did.
BUT — and OT — you must check out this HuffPost item. Best response to Starbucks Cease and Desist letter ever.
Starbucks takes on a small brewery over trademark infringement.
The brewery owner’s response is just perfect.
Cassidy
@Elizabelle: I hate how it loads too. Rarely go there. The article is mainly a bunch of tweets and instagrams of lines forming to purchase pot, people buying it legally, etc. Tapper tweeted a pothead joke saying it was the new Colorado state motto. It wasn’t even funny. It’s the kind of joke some yuppie makes when pretending to be high. I fucking hate people like that.
Steeplejack
@jacy:
Where did you get your information? I ran the numbers at HealthCare.gov for a 50-year-old woman living in Orleans Parish and wanting insurance only for herself. With an estimated income of $60,000, the cheapest bronze plan is $291 a month. (I initially misread your comment as saying that you made far too much to receive a subsidy, not far too much for Medicaid.) Not great, but probably better than no insurance at all.
With an income of $24,000—very low but still too much for Medicaid—the cheapest bronze plan, now with a subsidy, or tax credit, is $0 a month. There are other bronze plans at $13, $26 and $41 a month, and the most expensive of the 12 bronze plans is $90 a month. (The cheapest silver plan is $119 a month.)
Mnemosyne
@Steeplejack:
There is a weird “doughnut hole” in states that didn’t expand Medicaid that some people are falling into if they make between 100% and 125% of the poverty level. The subsidies only kick in if you make more than 125% of the poverty level.
aimai
@jacy: This is horrible but I wonder how many people will end up moving, or how dispositive this rising diffference in health care availiability will be in determining where people choose to settle post college?
Talentless Hack
@rikyrah: +1
Elizabelle
@Cassidy:
I assure you, most of the world is blissfully unaware of anything that comes out of Jake Tapper’s mouth.
@Steeplejack: fascinating re healthcare prices. I am one of those weasels who is waiting too long to sign up. Will begin again, seriously, this week. Those prices are encouraging. Have to see what the great Commonwealth of Virginia has in store for me. We don’t have our own exchange, natch. Not Governor-Elect Cooch led the charge against the ACA.
Steeplejack
@Mnemosyne:
Maybe I misinterpreted “I make far too much money for Medicaid.”
Capri
@bbleh: For most of them it isn’t “sheer blind hatred.” Rather it’s fear – they are being told that the country is going broke and that Obamacare costs trillions and is hastening the inevitable time when they will need to guard their 55 gallon drum of dried beans from the starving hoards with their assault rifles.
They know health care is good in the abstract, but are being told that having it is going to cripple the country so they’re against it. If you’re a patriot, the least you can do for your country is go broke trying to take care of your spouse with cancer.
becca
A lot of people who work in Memphis live across the river in Arkansas. I work with several Arkansans.
Their gloating in the work space is music to my ears.
catclub
@Mnemosyne: I wonder what would happen if you claim that income for this year will be just above the top of the hole, and then your income later turns out to be less. IN principle you would get the subsidy during the year. I thought I read somwhere that you would not be punished for that mistake.
OTOH, maybe the income verification with the IRS will show you as being too low.
Does that mean that if your income last year did qualify for Medicaid, but it goes up this year, that you (assume a different state, now) would be punished for not signing up for insurance?
Complicated!
Paul in KY
@Patricia Kayden: I agree. Can’t be ‘shocked’ by them doing that in states they control.
agrippa
@bbleh:
“died of an abstraction”.
That phrase applies to those who vote GOP against their own interest.
scav
Does Mississippi Gov. Phil Bryant refuse to feed small children in case they end up costing too much money or bringing shame to the family later? Here. It’s an interesting precedent. I think we all go out and Gay Marry, Speed, Smoke Weed and generally Disobey as they’ll probably just change the laws later when enforcement gets expensive.
Patrick
@Capri:
This is an argument I can’t understand. These are the same folks that had literally no problems whatsoever spending trillions of dollars on the dumbest war in my life time, the unprovoked attack on Iraq. It is hard to have any credibility when they on one hand claim they are scared about our deficit, but then didn’t mind spending unlimited amounts of money in Iraq.
Mnemosyne
@Patrick:
To them, it wasn’t “unprovoked.” It was, These guys attacked us on 9/11, and we have to retaliate. Don’t forget, the MSM and the right-wing media were all wholeheartedly claiming that Saddam Hussein financed the 9/11 hijackers. The Vice President of the United States claimed multiple times that there was a connection between 9/11 and Iraq. The Secretary of State said that Iraq was getting ready to nuke us. Of course we had to protect ourselves, no matter how much it cost.
Obviously, you and I didn’t fall for it, but there are millions of people who did and who are unwilling to believe that it was all a lie.
ETA: Scratch a wingnut even today, in 2012, and you will find someone who still believes with all of their heart that Saddam Hussein was involved with 9/11, and no amount of evidence will ever convince them otherwise.
Another Holocene Human
@bbleh: That map is like a map of the Deep South and its angry Western cousins. Generally speaking except for the marginal states which may change with the next (or just completed) election (ME, NH, VA, FL, PA), it’s a map of states where the poorest of the poor are Black, except for some of those Western states where they are Native Americans. Oddly, states with high Hispanic populations do not seem to be Medicaid refuseniks.
Note the very poor Appalachian states where the indigent are coated as “white” went for the Medicaid expansion. WV has the highest signups per capita of any state.
TN from what I understand is considering expansion but there are poor blahs in the Western end of the state (Memphis) which I am sure is weighing on those good legislators minds. If only there was a way to make Medicaid more humiliating and grift out a portion while they’re at it. Rick Scott has shown the way.
Wisconsin sitting up there as an ALEC beacon is truly extraordinary. Wisc is in no way politically different from the states that surround it. Thanks to Scott Walker and the dumbshit voters who put him there the state has actually cut back Medicaid coverage. Way to go Koch brothers.
@Eric: Ah, I see you beat me to it.
Another Holocene Human
I’m waiting to see when this all shakes out the %age uncovered numbers. I suspect that VT is about to kick MA’s ass on this, despite MA starting from a point of having the lowest %age uninsured of any state.
jacy
@Steeplejack:
At Healthcare.gov, the lowest plan I got was $372 a month. (I don’t know if that’s because I’m a different parish or something else.) The problem is, with my income (which is freelance and varies) and my expenses, I figured that if I cut things to the bone (and I’m pretty close to the bone now), I could probably swing about $150 a month at the very max. (young kids in school — who are covered, another couple kids in college, a mortgage, business expenses, utilities, groceries, quarterly taxes — there’s really not much left over).
And, yes, it’s really that donut hole that Mnemosyne mentions. (And the guy at Healthcare.gov seemed to feel so bad for me that I felt bad that he had to talk to me…. I told him I was just happy that I wouldn’t be penalized and hoped that made him feel better.)
Patrick
@Mnemosyne:
Sure. Even so – I don’t understand the logic of spending literally unlimited amount of money to get Saddam Hussein. What good is it to be “free” (whatever that means) when people in our country has to get bankrupt just to be treated for cancer? Is that freedom (even to the self-proclaimed patriots)?
Furthermore, if ACA is going to break our country’s finances, won’t the attack on Iraq do it much sooner since the Iraq war will ultimately cost a hell of a lot more?
kdaug
@Villago Delenda Est:
That’s the lesser half of the problem.
Estate taxes that start at 90% and progress to 100% over three generations? Now we’re talking.
The young, inept, and idle rich are a far bigger threat than the CEO.
ranchandsyrup
OT: Chris Kluwe goes into his recollections of why and how he was let go by the Minnesota Vikings after advocating for SSM. Will the “FREE SPEECH” Duck Dynasty people come to his defense?
http://deadspin.com/i-was-an-nfl-player-until-i-was-fired-by-two-cowards-an-1493208214
Mnemosyne
@Patrick:
What would you have been willing to pay to get Hitler? Seriously, that’s the argument — there is no amount of money too large to spend trying to get a bad guy who’s trying to kill you and your friends. And, unfortunately for us, it’s an emotional argument that’s impervious to logic. We were attacked on 9/11 and we needed to “get” the people who did it, whatever the cost.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Patrick: In addition to what Mnemosyne said, I think it at least partially comes down to which authorities you think are more credible. Most of us don’t have time to get into the nitty-gritty of policy debates. People generally trust authorities in their own tribe more than those outside.
W’s people were saying that Saddam had to be stopped or we’d be attacked again, and we could do it on the cheap, and would be welcomed with open arms, and oil would be cheap afterward, and we’d be safe, and everything would be great. “Go shopping!”
“…twenty seven eight-by-ten colour glossy pictures with circles
and arrows and a paragraph on the back of each one …” only sways people after there’s an emotional connection of some sort. People don’t really think about these issues – they don’t have time to become experts. They make quick decisions based on their gut. To get them to change their minds away from their tribe, you have to appeal to their guts and their emotions. After they are willing to let their emotions be swayed, and doubts about their tribes “experts” are planted, then you can bring out the Hammer of Righteous Facts to convert them.
Cheers,
Scott.
Keith G
@bbleh:
I will bet that if the Democratic Party ever gets its messaging head out of its ass, they could definitely move votes in their direction. All they would have to do is tour states like Texas with facts and figures pointing out how much money and how much opportunity for healthier lives is being lost by the choices the GOP in those states have made.
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
Do we have a list of supportive would-be columns that were turned down for the reasons you stated?
Davis X. Machina
@Keith G:
If facts and figures mattered, there wouldn’t be a GOP incumbent anywhere in the country, apart from a few places like Fairfield Co, CT.
People don’t vote their economic self-interest, not entirely. It’s not a data-driven process.
Voters, especially presidential voters, vote party, race, and religion — or lack of it. They vote age, gender, and — maybe — narrative. They vote like their neighbors do. They vote like their parents did. They vote depending on the general health of the economy.
Patricia Kayden
@ranchandsyrup: The same way they came to Martin Bashir’s defense.
FlipYrWhig
@Keith G: I fear you overestimate the persuasive power of facts. Facts work when people listen. Millions upon millions of people never do listen and never will. There are legions of unpersuadable people out there. If you barnstormed across Texas explaining evolution, do you think that evolution would increase in acceptance or popularity as a result? I don’t.
Mnemosyne
@Keith G:
Oh, yes, I forgot — the MSM is full of Obots who love Obama, and it’s only brave people like you who speak the truth against the constant wave of pro-Obama propaganda in the media.
Paul in KY
@Mnemosyne: That is a classic test of telling whether someone is stupid or not: ‘Did Saddam have anything to do with 9/11?’
Paul in KY
@Patrick: Err, Patrick… the ‘logic’ was finding a way to A) Enrich GOP donors/voters (lots of them in Defense Industry) and B) Remove a thorn in side of Likud Israel. From that standpoint, it worked like a charm.
Patrick
@Mnemosyne:
Hitler? The one who invaded Poland, France, England etc etc. Sure, he needed to be stopped at whatever cost. Saddam Hussein? Not so much. We already had sanctions on him. There were UN inspectors there.
And this is where I knew Bush/Cheney were bluffing – When the UN inspectors asked Bush to tell them where to look, Bush/Cheney refused to tell them.
Again, emotional or whatever, I truly do not understand the logic of where these people come from. But it is scary that it was that easy to rile enough folks up to start a nasty war that killed so many innocent people.
ET
@Cacti: I agree, but some Republicans – thinking of the Tea Party dead-enders- likely can’t give it up because, because…..
Some of them just aren’t rational and/or live in an alternate universe.
Citizen Scientist
@JoyfulA: I wouldn’t say ‘unlikely to win reelection ‘just yet. Corbett’s highly unpopular, but it remains to be seen if the Dems can capitalize on this. But, yes, hopefully he’s out and we get medicaid
expansion and/or a state exchange. GOTV, once again well be Jerry
doug r
@Patricia Kayden: Milt Shook has a great take-down of Michael Moore’s asinine editorial: http://pleasecutthecrap.com/pro-lefty-michael-moore-obamacare-is-awful/
Chris
@Gene108:
This.
Reminds me a lot of France under the Third Republic, where a large chunk of the country led by conservative elites really didn’t even recognize the republican government as legitimate, routinely made trouble along culture war lines like the Dreyfuss Affair, and got their big chance to come out swinging and take their revenge when Vichy came along.
doug r
@jacy: Here on Balloon Juice there was a great post a few days ago on how folks just shy of the Poverty Level (around $11,500) just estimate your income a little higher and you qualify for the exchanges. If your income ends up lower at year end, you won’t be penalized. Don’t go without insurance if you can help it.
Chris
@Gene108:
This.
Frankly, I think the sheer speed with which massive numbers of people bounced back to the right did more to kill my faith in the American public than the Bush years themselves did.
ericblair
@FlipYrWhig:
I think it’s more that if you’re not an Approved Authority Figure, they won’t listen to you. If you are an Approved Authority Figure, they’ll listen to just about any crap you want to spew. Of course, it can get a little complicated because an Approved Authority Figure can be regarded as heretic if the line of crap starts changing too quickly in some circumstances.
Many (or most?) people either can’t or won’t evaluate an argument on its own merits, and leave the thinking to the Approved Authority Figures. If an argument contradicts this, it must be defective in some way, and doesn’t deserve any more attention. It’s only when the facts are personal and hit a nerve do committed partisans change their minds, and it’s usually with a lot of painful soul-searching.
catclub
@doug r: Thanks! I said that earlier – less well.
Bill Arnold
@catclub:
This post describes the technique; basically estimate income higher than the threshold for the next year, and if you don’t actually succeed in meeting the threshold, no problem. [I would triple check the accuracy of this.]
Phoenician in a time of Romans
Some smart operator needs to find the people in this hole, or their families, and start bombarding them with robocalls from a supposed Republican source, congratulating the GOP for their stand. Let them hear someone crowing about their misery, and maybe they’ll draw the obvious conclusion.
Cliff in NH
@doug r:
Don’t forget thatyou don’t qualify for the cost sharing taxcredit if you don’t sign up for a silver plan.
If there is a way to make it work, try to get that tax credit, it makes the silver cheaper than bronze if you qualify for it when you file your taxes.
Note:
http://www.commonwealthfund.org/Charts/Issue-Brief/Income-Divide-in-Health-Care/Premium-Tax-Credits-and-Cost-Sharing-Protections-Under-the-ACA.aspx
Another Holocene Human
@rikyrah: Bang on as always, rikyrah.
If putting a white face on poverty is what it takes, let’s put a white fucking face on poverty. I’m way past giving a fuck. Serve up that ‘white solidarity’ in a dish and make them eat it.
Cliff in NH
@Cliff in NH:
Note that for the poor a silver plan ends up better than a platinum plan after the credit
Another Holocene Human
@Davis X. Machina: “jungle” primaries would put an end to this bullshit, no wonder right wingers oppose them
many a time the RWNJ has “won” (=by plurality) a jungle primary only to lose the general
they hate that
left wingers love it because they can run their purple pony flowers candidate and not get called names for their trouble
Keith G
@Davis X. Machina: @FlipYrWhig:
and @Mnemosyne:
Okay then, what is your (y’all’s) plans?
I trust it is not to use the oft repeated, “If we only had a better media.” That’s playing a victim, and it’s a quick route to failure.
Sorry dudes, and dudette, but we have to step up to the plate and swing the bat. Activism can work. It does take passion wedded with intense activity. It takes consistent effort and the willingness to take on bad odds and make them better.
The leadership of the Democratic Party, including the White House suck at messaging because they are not consistently giving it 100% of the effort it needs. Yeah, the media landscape is the dog’s bollocks, but that only makes progress harder, not impossible.
Mnemosyne
@Keith G:
Plan for what? The Obama administration is already doing what you claim they’re not — they’re going around the MSM to local outlets and Spanish-language media.
How is “activism” going to change the fact that four (4) corporations own virtually all of the media outlets? Be specific. Show us your plan.
Another Holocene Human
@Keith G: Keith G, you’re right, of course. Gore’s movie about climate change is a good modern example of barnstorming–there are many more from the 19th century. It does, in fact, work, but it requires dedication and funds and it seems like the “elite” would rather press a button and buy commercials.
Matt McIrvin
@MattF:
On Facebook (my barometer of these things) I mostly still just see wingers gloating and chortling about how all the liberal idiots are so sorry they voted for Obama, and liberals trying to defend the ACA like they have all along and just having to deal with these guys in the comment threads. Very little sign of any mindshare progress.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Holocene Human: Did Gore’s movie accomplish anything? As far as I can tell, it mostly associated global warming in the public mind with the person of Al Gore, and thereby discredited it through the power of Al-Gore-mockery, because Al Gore is fat and sometimes rides on airplanes.