Alison Grimes & Mitch McConnell are neck & neck http://t.co/sUdn0UqaYD & Mitch is less popular in KY than Obama. http://t.co/BGnn5EGVAk
— billmon (@billmon1) February 17, 2014
Somewhere over the weekend I picked up a link to the NCSL’s list of 2014 State Primary Dates and Runoff Dates, sorted by state or date, running from March 4 (Texas) to November 4 (Louisana, bless its corrupt heart). The Kentucky primary is slated for May 20.
Last week I asked who we should be supporting in 2014, and here’s what I got in response:
I’m volunteering time for Michelle Nunn, who is running for the open seat being vacated by retiring US Senator from GA, Saxby Chambliss. — SiubhanDuinne
Rob Zerban, running again against Paul Ryan – Max
Well, there’s Sen. Kay Hagan (D-ish, NC) defending her seat, she’s the #1 Koch target this year… or Clay Aiken – Jibeaux
Pam Byrnes in MI-07 and Paul Clements in MI-06, both running against noxious incumbents — Tim Walberg and Fred Upton. These are winnable districts. – Janeform
Who else wants to speak up here?
McConnell probably won’t make it out of the primary.
If we can win in either GA or KY, that will help us infinitely in holding the Senate for the next 2 years, when we will be playing some major offense…and in a presidential year, no less. I think Grimes has a better shot than Nunn, just because it seems like absolutely nobody outside of the 27% magical circle of red-state hell likes McConnell, but given the level of crazy in the Republican primary in Georgia, you never know.
Locally speaking, I wish there was a better Democratic option at governor of NY. It’s not that Cuomo’s been awful, but he is so fucking keen on being a centrist / expunging his ‘liberal daddy’ issues that he is running on cutting goddamn taxes. Why do Democrats ever, EVER think it’s a good idea to run on tax cuts? It is goddamn political poison to raise them…every time you shrink the tax base, it is a permanent hit against what government can do for people. He’ll get reelected in a breeze, but goddamn, if only Eliot Spitzer wasn’t a) an asshole, and b) fucking prostitutes, this state might’ve gotten somewhere.
Oh, and if those jerkoff ‘Independent Democratic Caucus’ fuckwads didn’t hand control of the State Senate to Dean Skelos, either.
Note for Paul W. who wondered about whether he needed to help his cat’s kittens with potty stuff: nope. Mom will do that. Fortunately for you because it’s a lot of work; you’d have to wipe their little bums with wet cotton balls till they go. All you have to do is give Mom all the food she wants, and start inviting prospective owners to visit now, so they can get the full blast of the irresistible cuteness rays the kittens emit, and reserve one. Have fun!
Doc Hastings is calling it quits, which means there’s a chance of WA-4 being in play. Sadly, that’s Yakima, which went 56-42 Romney. Always better when you aren’t fighting an incumbent though.
Charlie Crist is six points up on Rick Scott for Florida governor. Crist is currently a Democrat. Last week he came out — so to speak — against the Cuban embargo, which, aside from a contingent of aged domino players on Calle Ocho in Little Havana, is a winner in Florida because the rest of the state doesn’t give a flying rat’s behind about Fidel and sees dollar signs for the first person to open a NAPA Auto Parts Store in Havana.
Currently waiting to see who the Republicans will put up as a sacrificial lamb against AL FRANKEN. I still hope it’s Michele Bachmann.
The Lt Gov of Montana running for Baucus’ old Senate seat. Him getting appointed helps, but Montana can be odd. Definitely worth supporting.
Also, Doc Hastings is retiring, so it might be a possible pick-up now.
@MikeJ: Last Dem who ran there did okay. Changing demographics plus the willingness to keep doling out the Hanford pork are keys to winning here. Plus education is a HUGE issue in the district. Helps I’ll be voting here now. :)
@The Dangerman: I think he will…Bevin doesn’t come off as serious enough of a guy to challenge McConnell. Plus, they’ve found him giving investment advice and (rightly) noting that TARP was helpful.
Gotta think that takes a big weapon off the table against McConnell. Frankly, though…if I were the Democrats, I’d rather face McConnell in this election. He comes off as incredibly weak, and what can he point to that he’s spent any meaningful time on? If I were Grimes, I’d say that his biggest goal was making Obama a one-term president…and he failed at even that. He’s got zero worthwhile legislation to point towards since he got re-elected in 2008. And the contrast as well – a young, vibrant, charismatic Grimes vs. an aged, uninspiring McConnell…take that any day.
in the spirit of bi-partisan rat fucking, i generally vote in the republican primary to select the least likely candidate to win the general and then vote for the democrat – if there are any – in the general.
since i’m down in dumbfuckistan (georgia), amongst all the republican lunatics running for u.s. senate, i’m leaning towards voting for paul braun (the creationist “doctor” from athens).
anyone wanna offer a differing opinion on which republican most “deserves” my primary vote?
Perhaps, but the debt limit vote has the R base apoplectic (or whatever the next level crazier up is from raging lunatics).
@Mustang Bobby: I still can’t believe Alex Sink couldn’t beat his ass like a rented mule. I know 2010 was toxic for Democrats, but seriously – Rick Scott is basically Lex Luthor; he even has some nice medical fraud convictions backing it up. I have no idea what was in the water to make them vote for him.
On the upshot, if Chain-Gang Charlie gets elected, we know that he’s good on the voting-rights stuff based on 2008 – I have to think that if Hillary ends up being the eventual nominee, we will win Florda in 2016 by the largest margin that I can recall. In fact, after doing a bit of research, Democrats last won Florida by a double-digit majority in 1944(!!!).
I think the main thing about the Republican primary in KY is rooting for injuries. Maybe McConnell is a weaker opponent than Bevin and maybe not, but either one may be weaker after having been beaten up on in the primary.
wow, just saw that my former Representative, the most corrupt Gary Miller is retiring. He was redistricted into the IE, and the IE is apparently turning purplish, if not blue, so wow. Four Democrats are running and two Republicans have declared, neither Republican has a website. None of the Democrats have an “issues” page, so that’s interesting.
Districts 39, 48, and 49 could use some challengers, just because someone should make Royce, Rohrabacher, and Issa explain themselves.
@The Dangerman: I don’t think so; if anything, the debt-limit ire will be more directed towards Orange Julius than McConnell – the teabaggers are too stupid to connect A to B. Additionally, I simply haven’t heard of Bevin getting any real traction, and every poll that’s come out so far has McConnell pasting him by 40-50 points.
All said, I think 2014 really is the last stand of the Tea Party. If they can’t meaningfully punish any of the relevant Republican incumbents based on this debt-ceiling matter, Orange Julius is smart enough to know that he will be able to break the Hastert Rule all he likes without retribution. And he’s been engaged in a great deal of apostasy (by their standards) this congressional session.
Somebody with the power to issue indictments.
@KG: From what I’ve read, he got lucky due to the nonpartisan jungle primary last year – too many Democrats split the vote, and he ended up running against a Republican for reelection. Think he read the tea leaves and knew he was toast, even in an off-year election.
For gubernatorial — Clay Pell needs help in the dem primary here in RI. Taveras gets a reputation for being progressive but he’s really a centrist and a spineless one at that. Both will be outspent by the antichrist in the primary.
For the first time in years I don’t have a favorite in the Congressional or Governor’s nominating races. All of the candidates are “Good Enough.” So I’m going to help with the November GOTV operation.
Sean Eldridge vs. incumbent Chris Gibson in NY-19. This should be an easy pick-up, in theory.
I would like to donate to any Democrat who has a chance of beating Issa. I don’t have a lot of money, but it would be worth it to see him go down.
@negative 1: What’s the story with Chafee, and why did he end up being so unpopular? I don’t see anything that was really problematic with his policies; the only ‘big’ story was that he seemed to get saddled with the outcome of Red Sux-cum-gaming grifter Curt Schilling’s company imploding.
Hearing rumbles from friends in Orange County there could be some surprises come November 5th.
ETA: TWICE for grammar. This darn crud (two weeks and counting!) is affecting my brain.
Villago Delenda Est
So far, it’s been quiet in Oregon on the Senatorial front: Merkley is expected to run for reelection, and the GOP has been offering up relative unknowns as potential challengers. Kitzhaber probably is a shoe-in for another term as Governor, despite the Cover Oregon catastrophe.
Art “Ten pounds of crazy in a two pound bag” Robinson is the Oregon GOP chairman, which kinda tells you where the Oregon GOP is coming from this year.
Pennsylvania governor. We went from 12 Dem reps in 2008 to 5 in 2012 because of redistricting and terrible 2010 elections. In 2020, we need to control some of the choke points for gerrymandering. Governor is one of them, so we need to elect someone who can win re-election in 2018 and hope that higher turnout in 2020 in a presidential election year helps with state legislative races.
Looks like the nominee will be McCord or Schwartz, with Wolf a potential dark horse. Hopefully any of them is a better candidate than Onorato, who was pro-coat hanger up until winning the nomination and ran against the Democratic party.
When two other polls confirm that, I’m opening a ’67 Château d’Yquem for dessert.
@Cervantes: I’ve had an 1980. Invite me over when you have a ’67.
Everyone needs to hold their noses and support Mary Landrieu, for Harry Reid’s sake. As a constituent, I can tell you that he is the ONLY reason I’m supporting her.
As a Senator in super-red Alaska, Mark Begich has been pretty damn good, has a winnable race, and is worthy of our support. Begich is better than Grimes would be.
In AZ8 it’s be a rematch with Ron Barber vs Martha McSally, she’s in the Koch Brother’s pocket and a former AF pilot, so that sells, but what happened is that there was also a Libertarian candidate that ran that peeled off just enough votes for Barber to sneak through. It’ll most likely be a bloody affair again, big dollars spent as the seat has gained a symbolic stature since it’s Giffords old seat and for some reason it’s like a bleeping talisman or red cape to the GOP (how dare she not die!)
@MikeJ: Acquired a number of cases some decades ago. Have been enjoying them slowly.
Good ol’ NCSL. Worked for them back in the 90’s and wrote for State Legislatures magazine.
What about Grimm’s seat?
Is Staten Island winnable?
@Josie: I don’t think anybody’s got a chance against Issa; that district is extremely … Issistic. Your $$ would probably be better spent elsewhere. (Contrary opinions not only welcomed, but longed for. I really hope I’m wrong about this.)
Ps. Can we have a thread where we mock Bill Maher?
I can’t believe he thinks the Bridge stuff is no big deal.
Corruption, motherfucker? Oh, I guess if you have millions of bucks you just don’t have to worry about that inconvenient shit.
Okay. You win. :-)
I just sent an email to my country Democratic Party office volunteering to do some work for them. This particular area is really quite Republican and I’ll wager that the Democrats could use some help.
Probably a real long-shot since she’ll be running against Susan Collins, but this lady looks like she could be the greatest thing since Elizabeth Warren.
It might be worthwhile to at least give her better visibility.
@Bobby Thomson: Didn’t Onorato only end up losing by 5%? If anything, Joe Sestak ran the model campaign in 2010 – ran hard as a true-blue Democrat in 2010 and barely lost to that nutjob Toomey. I know he’s already running for a re-match, but having met him personally, you could do an awful lot worse than Sestak as your senator. Maybe not the most inspiring politician, but he is a helluva smart guy who knows what public service is about. I do wonder how that will go, though, as I could definitely see Kathleen Kane seeing an opening to run there. She’s done a stellar job, but it’s a shame because she basically crushed the political career of probably the politician I like most on a personal level (and whom I have done the most field work for – Patrick Murphy) – and I think Sestak is a great guy as well. Politics ain’t beanbag, as Mittens said.
As for the governor’s race – not paying all that much attention, although I am going to assume that McCord and Schwartz will fight it out to the bitter end, but whoever is left will decimate Corbett because everyone hates his goddamn guts.
Last comment on PA – the redistricting is pretty fucked. The Pennsylvania GOP basically jammed all the Democrats in southeast PA into 1, 2, and 13 (they gave up on Montgomery County) and shored up everything else. PA-6 and PA-8 are going to be much harder to win.
@Ted: I wish Mainers would get it through their heads that Olympia Snowe and Susan Collins are basically conservative Republicans who happen to be pro-choice. I bet she even voted against raising the debt ceiling (after voting for cloture, of course).
I suppose getting Angus King in there is a good first step, but that state deserves two solid Democrats in the Senate. I suppose that, like the Democratic South, it will eventually revert to what it should be in this day and age.
Howard Beale IV
@imonlylurking: That latest StarTrib paints Franken as massively polarizing outside of the Twin Cities counties, tho, which ain’t a good sign.
@Anoniminous: so far, only Issa has a challenger, as far as I can tell. I don’t expect any of those three to actually lose, just would be interesting.
James E. Powell
sees dollar signs for the first person to open a NAPA Auto Parts Store in Havana.
Isn’t Major League Baseball dying to put a team in Havana?
@BGinCHI: “Oh, I guess if you have millions of bucks you just don’t have to worry about that inconvenient shit. ”
You might be a Republican…
If you commute by helicopter.
I guess Barack Obama is a notable exception.
The Thin Black Duke
@BGinCHI: There was a temporary window long ago where I thought Maher would become an important comedian, but instead he’s devolved into the textbook example of a “libertarian”: just another smug privileged white male Republican who wants to smoke pot and fuck porn stars.
James E. Powell
@Howard Beale IV:
That latest StarTrib paints Franken as massively polarizing outside of the Twin Cities counties, tho, which ain’t a good sign.
Thought Senator Al was kind of quiet. What is so polarizing about him?
@Howard Beale IV: I don’t think Franken will ever win an election by a huge margin (certainly not by Klobachur-margins), but I think he should be able to win by mid-high single digits comfortably. That said, if he can’t crack 55% despite keeping his head down, not making national news, and working hard, then he should go on MSNBC all he likes and waive the partisan flag. If he makes it past 2014, his next election is in a presidential year, where he should theoretically have no problem (unless President Ted Cruz is massively popular).
Is Al Franken running for reelection this year? It’s already February. Who are the Republicans putting up against him?
Thankfully, some of us are immune and find them almost singularly unappealing.
Whoever the Dems nominate in NJ-3, as the incumbent Jon Runyan (R) is retiring after two terms apparently fed up with his Party’s antics in the House.
The district generally trends Republican, but Jon Adler won it in 2008, before losing to Runyan in 2010. It’s just close enough to 50/50 that Dems have thought they have had a puncher’s chance since long-time Republican incumbent Jim Saxton retired.
Despite Rob Andrews resigning, due to corruption charges that have not been proven, from NJ-1, the district is solidly Democratic enough that another Dem should replace him. I’m personally surprised Andrews got caught up in petty corruption charges. He seemed like a solid Congressman, who did good constituent service work.
Why is she the only true Democrat in the race for FL governor? :)
I know Charlie Crist is the party-switcher heartthrob, but why have we all abandoned this Nan Rich person? I hope this isn’t a Chris Christie-esque situation we’re getting into here.
She says “so called education reform” and I like that!
@Hungry Joe: That’s a shame. I guess I will keep giving my pittance to
Wendy Davis here in Texas – probably another long shot but closer to home.
The other half of that, of course, is the general assembly. I have a friend running for a spot there this year, hoping to unseat a mediocre incumbent who’s really done nothing. He’s young, he’s smart (Princeton PhD), and he’s driven as hell.
If you’re looking for bang-for-the-buck value, check him out.
@Kay: I think it’s name recognition. Not a lot of people — including Democrats — know who Nan Rich is or what her stands are. I’ve been trying to get the word out, but when you get Crist making the rounds on every MSNBC show pushing his book (yeah, right), it’s a tough climb.
Yes: Sen. Franken was first elected in 2008: six years ago already (!) – this would be his second term
@James E. Powell: He’s a Democrat and outside of the main cities, you have the constituencies of Michelle Bachmann.
I will be doing the usual. Donating a few pennies here and there to worthies (anything to ruin Yertle’s day) and volunteering with OFA. I will be not be doing much locally, since I know nearly 50% of the candidates in all the races and despise them as worthless republicans who know to win in CA, you need to be a nominal dem. They hate labour with a passion. So I feel nothing bad about hating them back.
@PsiFighter37: It depends on the narrative, but for the most part he watched as his appointed cabinet screwed over his friends, while doing not much to garnish outside support. Also, we now have the highest unemployment in the nation, so although no one really blames him it’s hard for him to point to too much positive in the ‘low info voter’ eyes.
Howard Beale IV
@James E. Powell: @PsiFighter37: @Violet:
Here’s the reporting the StarTribune did on Franken.
It mostly breaks on partisan lines, which is to be expected. And it looks like Captain Crazy (Michelle Bachmann) won’t be running to take Franken’s spot. The note that his favorables are starting to tend negative is a worrisome factor.
It’s going to take some work to hold onto Democratic seats here in Colorado. I’m in CD-7, and Rep. Perlmutter hasn’t done much good or bad, but as usual he’s way better than any of our local Republicans.
Sen. Mark Udall is a big target for R’s too. I’ve worked for his campaign a little in the past (mostly in concert with Presidential elections). He’s very good on lots of progressive issues, including NSA/surveillance stuff.
And they’re targeting our Dem. Governor as well, John Hickenlooper, over the gun law stuff and because he pushes green energy in the state.
So I’m going to focus at home.
OMG, the betrayal :)
I would go her rallies. “Sure he’s smooth, but where’s the substance?”
I would say. To the three other people there.
He is good. I actually listened to one of his events when he was campaigning for Obama, but it is a little harsh to just dump the long term Democrat for Mr. Popularity.
@PsiFighter37: With the way that Cuomo talks about cutting taxes on corporations and the rich, I wonder where the hell he thinks he’s going to get the money for early childhood education. It can’t come from the Lottery because that’s already over subscribed for regular education. (NYS’s not quite dirty little secret — the education budget comes entirely from the Lottery. Damn that thing was sold to us as “extra” money for education and now it is the education budget.)
ETA: I agree that he has Daddy issues. Can’t these sons work out their issues with a good shrink.
@James E. Powell: Aaah, The Havana Sugar Kings of the International League. Our local team, the Rochester Red Wings had a manger who was a player in the last game in Havana, with gun fire outside the stadium. I’ll bet MLB wants a team there, but maybe they should start with a AAA team just to verify the sustainability. The fan base is certainly there, but is the disposable income there to support an MLB team.
@James E. Powell: I doubt they’re that interested. The Expos could have gone to San Juan, Puerto Rico, instead they went to Washington DC.
There is a ton of money to be made when the embargo lifts, both stateside and on the island. And, of course, opening the island to travel and money would probably bring the regime down faster, or at least prompt reforms that would make it more free. I mean, it’s not like that’s what happened in Russia and China and everywhere else.
I’m in the MI-7 District, and was excited that Pam Byrnes threw her hat in the ring because with her past experience in the Michigan legislature. She has name recognition and is hooked up with the state Democratic Party apparatus. However, she has all but disappeared from the public eye since then, while Wahlberg has been all over the media.
The redistricting of the MI-7 in 2010 has excluded the city of Battle Creek, a highly active and participatory Democratic voter block, so beating Wahlberg is not a good bet.
But who does Greenwald say we should vote for. All good liberals will wait until he provides instructions.
@Mustang Bobby: Only 6?
@Cassidy: I know, right?
@Mustang Bobby: STD’s are more popular than Scott.
We are getting Aaron Woolf In NY. Pretty exciting.
@Kay: The Republican money boys are hoping she’ll be Nader 2.0, state-level version. Or so it would seem.
Ann Callis (probably) against Rodney Davis in IL-13. Davis will have incumbency advantage and it will help him that it’s a midterm, but he only won by about 1200 votes in 2012 over a guy who’d already lost 3 elections. This should be winnable.
I don’t know- that sounds more like unhinged bluster than clever planning. I think they have their work cut out for them just dragging that crook Scott over the finish line. Maybe they should focus their energies on making him appear “likeable” or at least “slightly less corrupt”. That’s a full time job right there.
Jim Sherow is running against the odious Tim Huelskamp in the First District of Kansas. Huelskamp has drunk the kool-aid of the religious right more than just about anyone. Jim would appreciate your support, and a shout-out.
@Kay: Last election cycle the Republicans tried out there ratfucking strategy. They ran Republicans in Democratic primaries who would them drop out after the primary leaving the Conservative to run unopposed.
@Kay: That would be a tad hard to do–especially ‘likeable.’ But for the people whose default is to vote against the Democrat, Scott’s corruption, the Medicaid fraud, pleading the 5th, etc., don’t seem to factor into their thinking in any way, shape, or form.
Here locally they run as “Independents” to the sane side of the Tea Party Republican and then win and immediately join the Republican Party.
I finally convinced the Democrats to stop supporting them after like 17 epic betrayals. “Another betrayal! How did this happen?”
Crist will win the primary, I’m sure, so all their devious planning will be for naught, and they’ll still be stuck with the crook as a candidate in the general.
John Walsh in the MT senate race is a standard issue montana democrat running against steve daines, who is truly a retrograde wingnut. holding Baucus’s seat would would mean a much bigger hill for senate republicans
Thanks for the book recommendation in the earlier thread. I’ve put it on my reading list.
@TooManyJens: I haven’t been paying enough attention. I have been thinking I need to start doing my research. I take it you prefer Ann Callis to the physicist guy?
I have gotten 5-6 phone surveys about that race in the past 2 weeks.
P.S. The only reason Davis won is that our county clerk pulled a lot of crap to make it very hard for a lot of likely democrats to get registered to vote.
You’ll love it. I liked how he has all this angst over his choice of profession, yet he cannot break free! I really get that. My favorite political people here are the labor people. During the school bond race I helped with I brought the Republican who was running the thing to the labor council meeting (he volunteered, because they needed Democrats to vote for it).
They hate Kasich and my “friend from the other side of the aisle” opened with how Kasich had cut taxes, so they should think of the school bond tax as a “set off” (not a tax increase, in other words). They’re really well informed, so they were contesting that (Kasich cut taxes on wealthy people, not them).
It was just brutal. I was sitting in the back snickering. “Tell him what you really think!”
I almost feel sorry for the guy.
Do you have a good book on Democratic Party history/politics to recommend? I’ve gained my knowledge in bits and pieces and I think it would be good to read something that presents that information in a systematic way.
Here in OC, a long-term incumbent Republican, Ed Royce (CA-40), is hanging ’em up. After the redistricting in 2012, this district got a lot browner and less affluent, so I say its worth a shot.
NY-18, Sean Patrick Maloney, who’s running against Nan Hayworth in a rematch. Maloney beat her in 2012, and we need to hold the seat.
Hmm, looks like there’s a wealth of opportunities to try and flip seats. This makes me very happy.
@Bobby Thomson: I haven’t decided on my favorite Democrat to beat Corbett either. No one is inspiring, but the only coat hanger dropped out.
@PsiFighter37: Sestak is wonderful, and I’ve already signed up for 2016. He had to raise all his own money in 2010, both to fight off the powers that be’s beloved Specter and the general. I’ve met him a couple of times–once was at a homeless shelter speaking to vets there–and been very impressed.
Paul in KY
@The Dangerman: Unfortunately, he will win his primary.
Paul in KY
@imonlylurking: Just sent a donation in to Sen Franken.
Paul in KY
@PsiFighter37: McConnell though has oodles more money than Bevins. I think Ms. Grimes would rather face Bevins.