6. Year this reminds of most (ironically) is 1986, when Dems retook Senate by beating bunch of GOPers elected in 1980 Reagan wave.
— Billmon (@billmon1) November 5, 2014
12. But if tonight's vote demos are correct, 2010 was as good as it gets for GOP — and probably better than it will get again for long time
— Billmon (@billmon1) November 5, 2014
15. …suppressed black votes whenever/wherever they could — basically threw the kitchen sink at the Dems.
— Billmon (@billmon1) November 5, 2014
16. Koch brothers essentially retooled their entire political/financial machine to fight this year's elections.
— Billmon (@billmon1) November 5, 2014
18. In an on-off year election in which all the normal cyclical political factors (2nd term off year) were pulling in GOP's favor.
— Billmon (@billmon1) November 5, 2014
You can read Billmon’s entire argument at his Twitterfeed, here. (No need to join Twitter.)
***********
Now to make it so…
Apart from remembering the old proverb This too shall pass — like a kidney stone, what’s on the agenda for the evening?
Karen in GA
No politics for me. I’m still too damned sick and I just don’t have it in me right now. We live in a country with way too many idiot crackpots. Beyond that, I just don’t have the strength to even think about it.
Iggy, meanwhile, attempts to show compassion in my hour of need, so there’s that.
Redshift
I agree to a considerable extent — in an average second-term midterm election, the president’s party loses six Senate seats, and this was one with the map strongly tilted toward the GOP (though those two factors overlap to some degree, since the second-term midterm necessarily includes Senators elected in the first-term presidential election.) Still, the baseline for measuring how bad it was should at least be losing six seats, and probably a little more.
Corner Stone
People should love who they love!
That is all.
Political Realism
You can’t shit all over white men and married white women and expect to win an election, Democrats.
That’s the lesson to take away.
max
I agreed with Billmon’s argument last night when he made it. That was the wrong time for the dice to go cold, and also, never nominate Martha Coakley.
This roller-coaster started in 2010, or rather 2009, and recalling the history of the Clinton administration and the dedication of the South to getting rid of the black guy, added on top of trying to recover from a financial collapse, the entire constellation of factors basically did the trick. The Dem’s have to build a message around the economy to neutralize the blame hot potato that the R’s have been working overtime to stick Obama with, and they gotta exploit their advantages in presidential years.
max
[‘And don’t lose your head.’]
Political Realism
@Redshift:
You’re forgetting the Governor’s races.
That’s the real story.
And where the future of the GOP lays.
Walker/Snyder 2016 anyone?
jacy
I voted on Tuesday morning, butI didn’t even pay any attention Tuesday night. Wasn’t until I talked to a friend in Colorado on Wednesday morning, and found her all verklempt because Hickenlooper hadn’t been declared the winner yet, that I even thought about the election again. I voted and made sure my kids voted and everyone else I could convince, but beyond that I really don’t care anymore — or at least not enough to be invested in it. People will be idiots until it (literally) kills them. Hopefully they’ll be replaced by less idiotic idiots, but I ain’t holdin’ my breath. (The year as made me not only a glass half empty kind of girl, but a glass completely empty kind of girl.) Also, this is the last season for Justified, so I welcome the meteor……
mdblanche
Well, show me the way to the next whiskey bar.
srv
Blogging by twitter. Surely there must be something disparaging in the lexicon for that trope?
I’m sure all these persistently unemployed millenials will show up in 2016 for a democrat. Maybe Billmon has an app for that.
@Political Realism: Walker/Cruz 2016
Mike in NC
Koch brothers spent $300M for two years worth of gridlock. Good ROI? Not seeing it.
I’m also reminded of working on K Street in DC back in the mid-90s. GOP memo pads floating around my office read “Permanent Republican Majority” and they were adamant that Phil Gramm was going to vault into the White House with an assist from Newt Gingrich. Those good old days!
Mnemosyne
Two more days until we leave for Kauai. Plus I finally got a recruiter callback today and she’s passing my resume along for consideration. And, of course, Democrats swept every statewide office in California — and we passed Props 1 and 2. So I’m actually feeling pretty good today despite yesterday.
Keith G
Back in ’02, or was it early ’03?, Billmon at The Whiskey Bar authored a post that chronicled the series of lies told by officials of the Bush administration to rev up support for the war in Iraq. It was a master work and the earliest such effort that I had seen in any media. I immediately printed it out and attached a copy of the list to a display on my bulletin board – I was teaching government to hs seniors at the time. It was Pulitzer quality work.
I am sure it is still archived somewhere.
BGinCHI
Jerry Jeff Walker/Dee Snyder 2016!
The ! indicates emphasis.
jo6pac
Getting ready to eat leftovers and I wish I could care about the so-called crazy-right-wing take-over But I can’t from a member of the left
Howard Beale IV
The stupid shall be punished. Sad that it’s going to take the rest of the United States with it.
Anybody remember Amerika? Instead of the Soviet Union, I picture Russia and China.
Matt McIrvin
@Political Realism: Okay, can you explain why you were wrong in 2008 and 2012?
Howard Beale IV
@Mike in NC:
A long time ago I remember when he was running for president some of the good old boys bitched that was ‘married to a gook’. I felt sorry for him back then. Fast forward 20 years, when was one of the key architects of repeal of Glass-Stegall, the CFMA, and now, If I saw his ass in the side of the road in an accident, I wouldn’t lift a finger to save him.
jo6pac
@Mnemosyne:
Have a Great Time and I hope you land a job but 1 was water for Tulare Basin
JPL
@Political Realism: You are actually right. I’m a white female and don’t feel shit upon at all. Yes I voted democratic because I believe in a democratic society without corporate control.
Violet
Short ribs for dinner. They’ve been in the crock pot all day. I threw together some sort of sauce for them to cook in–red wine, pomegranate molasses, onion, homemade beef/lamb/pork stock. I think some tomato paste. Just keep tossing stuff in there and boiled it down a bit before putting it all in the crock pot. Smells good now.
askew
We had mostly good news in Minnesota last night. We definitely avoided the catastrophe that our neighbors experienced in Wisconsin and Iowa.
I am looking forward to Obama issuing the EO on immigration.
For non-politic news, my neighbors continue to suck. They have been running a snowmobile all afternoon making my house smell like exhaust fumes. I have a call into the association. Have I mentioned they have shooting range target posters up in their garage now? Now they are scary and annoying.
Karen in GA
@Mnemosyne: Enjoy Kauai. Here’s hoping you return to good news on the job front.
Mnemosyne
@jo6pac:
That’s not what local media is telling me:
As far as I can tell, Tulare, CA, is out by Bakersfield. I’m sure they’re going to benefit, but the Prop 1 bonds are not dedicated to them.
Liberty60
@Political Realism:
White men and married women have suffered untold trauma and indignities since 2008?
I’m calling Poe’s Law.
Or performance art.
Or a Google failure: Search “stormfront”- gets directed to Balloon Juice.
Liberty60
@Howard Beale IV:
I would.
The middle one.
Heyohh!
jacy
@Violet:
That sounds awesome. Kids have been picking the menus around here lately, so it’s mostly sloppy joes, spaghetti, or the height of haute cuisine, Taco Bell.
Violet
@jacy: How are you doing? Hope everything is going okay.
Mnemosyne
@Liberty60:
Well, to be fair, they’ve had to see a black guy on their teevee every day claiming to be the president. It’s an insult, I tells ya!
Plus people point and laugh at them when they say stupid things. Really, it’s worse than the Holocaust.
Hungry Joe
@Howard Beale IV: There was a great line about Phil Gramm: “Even his friends don’t like him.”
Hal
I’m disappointed, but largely still meh about all of this. We go through this type of election every few cycles on either side, so it’s nothing new.
The demographics still favor Dems and they need to actively build a cohesive party wide message to attract those growing demographics. Dems have the better policies socially and economically, but if on older white people show up at the polls, Dems lose. News at 11.
Poopyman
I’m in Maryland and our next governor is named Larry.
Shit, I didn’t win the Megamillions jackpot, either.
jibeaux
If the dems had reformed the filibuster, maybe they’d have a record to run on…yes, I do see what the downside of that would be. I wonder, though, maybe the Dems will filibuster everything until the R’s change it? I would like that. I am comfortable with the concepts of elections matter, and folks should be judged on their results. I don’t really want us to benefit later from eternal gridlock, I’d rather benefit from failed and unpopular actions. This is a new thought I’ve been kicking around, and nontroll thoughts welcome.
The Snarxist Formerly Known as Kryptik
@Hal:
Having the better policies might not fucking matter when people vote to support said policies, then turn around and vote for people who literally run against said policies as their main platform. Look at the minimum wage issue this election.
People want Democratic policies carried out by Republican politicians, because apparently having a D by your name means you’re a terrible person that should die or get out of this country now, since you obviously don’t belong here.
MomSense
@jacy:
I have such a crush on Timothy Olyphant.
napoleon
more from Anne Laurie’s fantasy land.
jacy
@Violet:
Not so hot. Chemo is giving me neurological and cognitive impairment (which is why I’m not around much — takes me forever to type what I mean to say without it being gibberish), and the personal situation is so awful it doesn’t even bear thinking about. Considering cutting chemo from 6 down to 3 rounds to minimize the chance of the cognitive problems being permanent. On the other hand, work is finally going well, and the kids are doing awesome in school and extracurricular activities, which is the thing that I’m most grateful for. I’m willing to make any tradeoff for them to be healthy and happy.
Mike in NC
@Howard Beale IV: Gramm refused to be photographed with his wife, Wendy, a Korean-American. Mitch McConnell did pose last night with his Chinese-American wife Elaine Chao. 20 years of progress for the GOP? Impressive…
Howard Beale IV
@Hungry Joe: Now that I would believe. He’s probably a Texas version of Niall Ferguson-except that unlike Gramm, Ferguson married an Ethiopian instead of an Asian. Both are total assholes.
mdblanche
This too shall pass — like a kidney stone
Mustang Bobby
Drove home from work this afternoon listening to the classic rock station rather than the usual NPR programming. I just did not want to listen to concern trolling from Nice Polite Republicans; I would rather hear Tainted Love for the umpteenth time.
Howard Beale IV
@Mike in NC: I did not know that bit about Gramm’s refusal to be photographed with his wife. Explains a lot about some of his (and his supporters) behavior.
Still, he’s a first class asshole.
Violet
@jacy: I’m sorry to hear that but glad you’re hanging in there. I hope the chemo schedule can be adjusted to help you cope a bit better. I’ve been wondering how you’re doing so glad to see you here even if it’s difficult for you to post. Glad your kids are doing well. That’s got to be a comfort. Sending good thoughts your way.
beltane
Funny, I am a white married woman and I do not feel that the Democrats have shit on me. Better yet, my husband is a white married man who even plays golf and he also doesn’t feel that the Democrats have shit on him. He does often say that the Republicans are full of shit so maybe that counts for something.
Mike in NC
@Hal: As I stood in line at the National Guard armory gym waiting to go to the voting machine, I couldn’t help but notice that many of the elderly folks in line didn’t look like they’d be around in a couple of years. Some could barely stand or walk.
Last hurrah, indeed.
Applejinx
I can buy Billmon’s analysis. Because I see and feel and sense the evidence of it everywhere I look. Everything looks like really alarming oligarchy, plutocracy to the Nth degree along with a formidable brainwashing setup.
I look at Facebook and I go ‘waitaminnute… I have craploads of gay and liberal and black friends and why am I barely seeing any hint that shit just went down, here?’. I have this gut feeling that in so many ways we are already super controlled. Media, entertainment… pushing this very American madness that’s all about the fecklessness of the Other and getting every individual to sack up and take total responsibility for their victory in a society where there’s no room for too many winners. And hate the losers so badly that you’ll never think ‘wait, do I need help? Do I deserve, well, anything?’
In a putatively Christian nation that’s an impressively neat trick.
And yet, it’s not entirely working, no matter how many billions are poured into the effort, how tight the control. The media’s more in the tank for this than Pravda, but it doesn’t entirely work.
Billmon is right. I am also going to watch for the Reps to come apart at the seams, perhaps helped by some positively rabid overreaching. Be ready to capitalize on their mistakes even if they are horrifying mistakes. NO mercy.
MomSense
@jacy:
I’m sorry to hear you have to deal with those side effects. It is amazing how our kids can inspire us to get through. I am sending you all my best wishes for recovery, health, happiness, and peace.
beltane
@askew: It’s deer season, the shooting of guns at odd times is to be expected. Snow machines right next door would drive me nuts.
gogol's wife
Okay, here’s what I don’t get. Why do the rich people want the economy to be in the toilet? Was 2008 really good for them? Wouldn’t it be better for them to have Democrats in charge, growing the economy? Look at how much Obama improved the economy, even with the Republicans obstructing him every step of the way. Why is a ruined country good for them? Are the tax cuts really that important? (And my question applies to Chuck Todd and all the people in the media who root against the improvement of the country.)
jacy
@Violet: @MomSense:
Thanks — the kindness of people has just really been amazing. And things will get better — I’m just the impatient type…..Maybe I need to cryogenically frozen for a bit. :)
Violet
@Applejinx:
This is what Democrats don’t do. They’re all nice and conciliatory to Republicans even when Republicans are destroying themselves. Then when Democrats want something, Republicans shit all over them, pull the football away, say hell no. Republicans know exactly how to show no mercy. Democrats play fair and wonder why they’re flat on their backs after Lucy pulls the football away. Again.
beltane
@gogol’s wife: Rich people would prefer to have a larger slice of a small pie than a slightly smaller piece of a much larger pie. It’s having more compared to everyone else that’s important, not how much they have in total.
Mnemosyne
@gogol’s wife:
Because having the economy in the toilet while they still have boatloads of money proves they deserve to have more money than everyone else. Let’s face it, when you’re the Koch brothers, you always have a sneaky feeling that inheriting Daddy’s money doesn’t really count as “hard work.” But you can’t face the fact that you got lucky in the lottery of life, so you have to come up with all kinds of reasons and rationalizations for why you really are better than everyone else.
Gin & Tonic
@Violet: If I bring a nice bottle of wine, will there be enough for me?
Violet
@jacy: Not cryogenically frozen, but when my cousin had cancer and was undergoing treatment, her doctor had her go into a hyperbaric chamber every week for about six weeks I believe. Apparently it made a huge difference in her treatment and also how she felt. This was in a blue state so maybe not available in your area, but could be worth asking about.
Violet
@Gin & Tonic: Maybe! I’ve made enough to have leftovers. I’m about to start peeling potatoes for mash. I’ve got green beans for veg, plus what’s in the mix. Wanted something crispier, though, so figured lightly steamed green beans should work.
It’s cool and rainy here, so I thought something warming sounded good. I’ll let you know how it turns out.
jacy
@Applejinx:
I agree. It’s all well and good to play by the rules and be nice and not sacrifice any principles by stooping to somebody’s level, until you realize that life just doesn’t work that way. Sometimes you just need to find the weak spot and keep sticking the knife in until your arm gets tired.
Karen in GA
@gogol’s wife: I’d imagine it’s because when the business does well, that’s more money going into hiring, expanding distribution, etc., rather than going into the executives’ pockets.
Omnes Omnibus
@jacy:
Dayum.
Violet
@jacy:
Yes, exactly. And with Republicans, no mercy. Make them pay.
Karen in GA
@jacy: Aw, jacy, very sorry to hear that you’re having a hard time. I hope a new chemo schedule works out for you. Sending good wishes and healing thoughts.
jibeaux
@beltane: Mine’s a white guy with a management job and a credit line at freaking Brooks Brothers who doesn’t think that, either. Possibly, maybe, because it would fucking idiotic to walk around in your sharp suits telling people how you’ve been shat upon.
Political Realism
I love the whining about the Koch Brothers. Tears. Yummy yummy yummy leftist trars. Mmmmmm…refreshing !
Get used to it . The Koch Brothers are smiling tonight and they haven’t even used a tenth of their nearly unlimited resources.Every time you think the Democrats are about to fly, the Koch Brothers will smile, lean over, and clip your wings with their campaign spending. And there’s Jack all you can do about it.
Hal
One more thing:
and
So why is this the end of the world? It’s not. The media will still give out their “advice”, but any politician who listens to Candy Crowley and Chuck Todd while ignoring the historical context is a fool.
Mnemosyne
@Political Realism:
Tell me, how does it feel knowing that you can’t actually advance on your own merits and have to depend on Big Daddy to do everything for you? Is it like when your mommy called the school and demanded that they increase your D to a C minus so you could advance to third grade?
Political Realism
@Hal: it’s not just the Senate.
You got wiped out in governors races even in FUCKING MARYLAND.
Scott won.
Walker won.
Snyder won .
The “Big Three”.from 2010 are all still sitting pretty, and this is the third time in four years Walker defeated the Democrats, LOL.
jacy
@Omnes Omnibus:
Not that I would literally ever do anything like that….
Omnes Omnibus
@jacy: Sure, you say that now….
Get well soon – good thoughts headed your way.
Mnemosyne
@Political Realism:
Re-election.
Re-election.
Re-election.
It’s almost like there’s something to this “incumbent’s advantage” that you guys complained about with Obama, huh? Nah, it must be because all of the voters melted at Very Republican Manly Manliness of Scott, Walker, and Snyder.
Gin & Tonic
@Political Realism: Wow. Unlimited Corporate Cash is back in da house.
Hal
@Political Realism:
LOL ROTF LMAO PMFL!!!
STFU.
jacy
@MomSense:
Timothy Olyphant is “the hot” as the kids here say. Although I’m am strangely mesmerized by Walton Goggins.
Matt McIrvin
@Political Realism: I repeat, that’s an excellent theory for why Republicans should win every single election, and you were advancing it on this very blog back in 2012. And I think in 2008 as well.
And you were wrong then. So why were you wrong?
If you can’t answer that, then you don’t check your beliefs to reality, despite what you call yourself, and nothing you say is worth listening to.
Kerry Reid
@beltane: I’d also argue that it’s not enough for them to be rich — they must actively see others BEING POOR in order to reaffirm their godlike awesome qualities. “Ha ha ha suffer you poor bastards! I’m pissing on your rotten disgusting poor-person corpse with my gold-plated hedge-fund cock of DEATH! But don’t you dare judge me! Only God can judge me!” The perfect horrific meeting of late-stage capitalism and old-school Calvinism.
I do wish that the Dems would get better at pointing out that the GOP is not against taxation. They just want the taxation to be on INCOME, not wealth. Because if you actually WORK for your money, then clearly you are a loser asshole. If you happened to inherit money or live off stock options, then you are a “wealth creator” who must have a constant shit-show of poor people presented to you so you can once again reaffirm that God and the Universe Have Chosen You Especially.
Applejinx
@Kerry Reid: This. When you have kabillions of ill-gotten gains (pretty much there is no way to do that much work or think of something that clever so ANY accumulation of kabillions is by definition ill-gotten) the only way you can get richer is to make everyone else poorer.
End game is like Midas. One guy with all the money, everything and everyone else is gold, and he starves and dies still considering himself the winner. In reality, he just broke the gameboard and ruined his own prize. This is a hugely significant problem with untrammeled freemarket capitalism: feedback sets in and then the high scorers resort to vandalism, unsatisfied with end zone taunts.
Thankfully, being an exultantly evil douchebag even offends some of the rich, so you get class traitors and we’ll continue to see class traitors shivving the douchebags here and there when their pet charities are thrown under the bus.
That’s not enough but it’s better than nothing.
danielx
@Political Realism:
Why yes, I have frequently noted the appalling burden placed on white men and married white women over the past six years. The whole time, they’ve had to put up with the Kenyan imposter islamofascistsoshulist sitting in the Oval Office of their White House.
I don’t know how it is that we haven’t witnessed Jim Jones-style mass suicides.
I’m a white middle-aged, middle class (more or less) male, and I don’t feel shat upon by anybody except the Wall Street swine who shat upon everybody except themselves during the oughts, and continue to do so to this very day, to the extent they can get away with it. I confidently expect those traitorous bastards of the ‘R’ designation in Congress to quickly decrease the absolutely horrifying regulatory burden bankers have had to labor under for the past few years, because clearly what the economy needs is less regulation of Wall Street. Less regulation of every kind, but that before and above all, because job creators. Never mind that JP Morgan, to name one example, more closely resembles a continuing criminal enterprise (from a legal standpoint) than a bank.
Because that worked out so well last time, eh?
By the way, fuck you and the horse you rode in on.
SiubhanDuinne
@Violet:
I cringe to relate this story, but when my great-aunt (born 1887) moved to Atlanta in the late 1960s, she was out shopping one day and saw an AA woman wheeling her baby in a stroller. “Oh, what a cute little pickaninny!” said my aunt to the child’s mother.
~ ~ CRINGE ~ ~
But when she was a younger woman, this was not only an acceptable word, it was actually taken as a term of affection. I absolutely know she meant nothing offensive by it, and in fact when it was pointed out to her that it was considered bigoted, she was mortified.
Crouchback
@Political Realism: Dude, they’re in their 70s. Alzheimers or the Grim Reaper could take them soon. By all means, bet your party on a handful of old men. That’s sure to end well.
And there’s something a little sad when you boast of being a whore and how wealthy your pimp is.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VMnyUfxPvmo
Elie
@Mnemosyne:
Have an excellent time in Kauai– lucky you!
Cervantes
@SiubhanDuinne:
Yes, it comes from Afro-Caribbean use of Spanish pequeño, meaning “small.” Nothing derogatory about it — originally.
Elie
@MomSense:
Gotta say I remember Tim from the “Deadwood” series on HBO and he was a hottie in that one. I haven’t kept up with his work but you are indicating you have a crush, so he must still have IT. Man, he was smokin back then… I didnt miss an episode…
Elie
@jacy:
jacy —
I don’t know your story but it sounds challenging. I will pay attention going forward and send you my very very best… which is pretty lame.
Elie
@gogol’s wife:
They don’t care about the economy now, or even near term. They want control and predictability. They figure if they have those two, the rest will follow. It is all R formation and the reptilian brain. I have to kill what is any risk or competition. Period.
Linnaeus
@Political Realism:
Keep licking those boots, son.
Linnaeus
@gogol’s wife:
Two things:
1. Once you’re reached a certain level of wealth, you can effectively insulate yourself from the worst effects of the economic cycle. Economically, the very rich simply don’t live in the same economic world as the rest of us do. The Gilded Age was terrible for a lot of Americans (there was even a very bad depression, too!) but it was very good for the 1%-ers of the time.
2. As Elie pointed out, it’s not just about money, it’s about power. There’s considerable benefit in not just having more money, but greater ability to shape the world around you and effect your will in it. That’s why organized capital is going for neofeudalism now.
Mnemosyne
@Elie:
Thanks! We went a few years ago and loved it, but it took us a little while to save up enough to go back. Really looking forward to a genuine vacation, not visiting family and calling it a vacation.
Emily68
@Mnemosyne: If we’re looking for good news, Washington state told the NRA to go sit on a tack and passed a law closing the gun show loophole in the background check law. And it passed the law 60% to 40%.