My thanks to commentor dww44 for the clip. Partial transcript, from the original blog post, “GOPlifer” Chris Ladd in the Houston Chronicle:
Few things are as dangerous to a long term strategy as a short-term victory. Republicans this week scored the kind of win that sets one up for spectacular, catastrophic failure and no one is talking about it.
What emerges from the numbers is the continuation of a trend that has been in place for almost two decades. Once again, Republicans are disappearing from the competitive landscape at the national level across the most heavily populated sections of the country while intensifying their hold on a declining electoral bloc of aging, white, rural voters. The 2014 election not only continued that doomed pattern, it doubled down on it. As a result, it became apparent from the numbers last week that no Republican candidate has a credible shot at the White House in 2016, and the chance of the GOP holding the Senate for longer than two years is precisely zero.
For Republicans looking for ways that the party can once again take the lead in building a nationally relevant governing agenda, the 2014 election is a prelude to a disaster…
… We’re about to get two years of intense, horrifying stupidity. If you thought Benghazi was a legitimate scandal that reveals Obama’s real plans for America then you’re an idiot…
Y’all should watch O’Donnell’s clip, or else read Ladd’s whole post, because the numbers laid out there are heartwarming.
Apart from the usual political skirmishing, what’s on the agenda for the day?
Mustang Bobby
According to Interlochen Public Radio out of Traverse City, there’s a winter storm warning in northern lower Michigan
Good thing I’m in South Florida.
ThresherK
This may, just may, be the last day of our move.
Last night, I looked at the remaining items to move, thought “my crossover totes 60 cu ft, and a UHaul cargo van, 220 cu ft, with a low load floor, large door openings”, and decided to just rent the damned van.
I expect a bit of “my common sense is finally showing up in you” approval from my Dad (in a friendly way), who is a master of avoiding penny-wise pound-foolish, and who also helped move my vintage motorcycle with a UHaul this weekend. (Yes, a motorcycle built when I had my motorcycle license is now “vintage”. I feel old; when did that happen?)
Another (yes, a second) Dumpster is being delivered for trash totin’ to. All the stuff going into it is in bulk, bags, or boxes.
The finish line is in sight. I look forward to turning on the stove and oven in the condo soon.
Suffern ACE
And the chances of a democrat wave taking back the house are also 0. Same old demographic argument. Our voters will still suck until 2070.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Suffern ACE: I guess we should just fold up the tent and go home then?
Baud
Voting is one of the few levers of power non-elites have left, and maybe not for long if folks don’t start exercising it in every election.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: That’s what I told the kid when she said she didn’t vote this year. I told her, it doesn’t take but a few minutes here. People in other parts of the country have to wait for hours and go through great lengths to get the necessary ID to be able to vote.
Daniel
Republicans know these numbers as well. And so, in Michigan at least, they are working to have the electoral votes split to reflect the percentages of the Presidential vote.
danielx
It’s 10 degrees outside, and this totally sucks – usually don’t get temperatures like this until January. Of course, I’m certain that when I’m out and about today, I will see two or more Darwin Award candidates in the form of high school age males wearing baggy shorts, plus the requisite tats.
Ladd’s post is interesting, but from a Democratic standpoint it sounds like there will be pie in the sky by and by. Voter suppression worked very well, indeed it did, and they’ll push for more.
Randy P
Meanwhile, according to the New York Times, insurers are benefitting from ACA. If all that money likes ACA, what will the Republicans use as their signature issue? They’re not going to go against the money.
ThresherK
PS Love the idiocy of the maps showing, say, CDs which are represented by the GOP. Unless I stepped out of the TARDIS in feudal England, square miles don’t vote.
Betty Cracker
From Larry O’s lips to the FSM’s orecchietta. But seriously, I think he makes a credible argument, even if I am weary of hearing that we’ll drive a stake through the heart of the crazies next time. The points made about the White House and Senate are good ones. The House, not so much, though a well-timed release of the next installment of that perennially popular GOP serial, “The Great Stupid,” could work wonders in that regard too in 2016.
I’ve been told this is an outdated view, but I still hold it: There are hard core Democrats and Republicans who will vote for the yellow dog or blood-gargling psychopath respectively. But to the masses of people who don’t pay much attention, presidential races are a reality show special event, and outside a contest between larger than life personalities, the unaffiliated electorate behaves like a panicked herd of gazelles, stampeding right and left mindlessly in a way that seems unconnected to reason.
Tommy
@BillinGlendaleCA: Oh I hear you. Where I live I can vote faster than I can order a Big Mac. I have friends and clients in other parts of the nation where as you said it can take them an hour plus to vote. I know many people by me that didn’t vote and I honestly get up on my high horse and bitch at them. You don’t realize how good you have it. Voting is easy. Simple. I say this both to liberals and conservatives. Just go vote.
satby
@Mustang Bobby: almost all of Michigan, I’m in the SW corner and we’re under the winter storm warning until 7pm. Started yesterday at 1 pm. The wind was howling last night, but snow right by me only totalled an inch so far. East of me is probably getting more.
Davis X. Machina
Check out the comments on the Chronicle blogpost if you’re looking for some quality whistling past the graveyard.
Mustang Bobby
@satby: I lived in northern Michigan long enough to understand why they stop all that “Winter Wonderland” music right after New Year’s. By February it gets way too old and only the fudgies think it’s “magical.”
satby
@Mustang Bobby: Especially since they’ve started the Christmas shopping season before Halloween now. Which I hate.
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: You can always do what I do, just ignore the whole made up holiday of Christmas altogether. You’ll save money, be more productive, avoid all your wingnut relatives, and suffer way less stress.
Sherparick
I think Chris Ladd misunderstands his own movement and what drives it. He might even misunderstand himself and why he is a Republican. He needs to read Corey Robin’s “The Reactionary Mind” and Eric Hoffer’s “The True Believer.” The Conservative Movement, the mass movement that has captured the Republican Party, is a movement that at its heart driven by rage and resentment. Rage at the disruption of the former subordination of Black, Brown, and Red to White; rage at the disruption of subordination of women to men; the disruption of the subordination of Gay to Straight; and the disruption of subordination of workers to their employers, and all these relationships sanctified and justified by their own peculiar religious doctrine. The Movement seeks a restoration of all these old relationships, and when they speak of “liberty” and “economic freedom” they they mean the restoration of the liberty of private power to enforce these subordinate relationships, with violence both private and state sanctioned. However, problem for the American Conservative Mass Movement its Achilles heel is its Whiteness, particularly its mixture White Protestant Southern and White Roman Catholic male ethnic culture, both of which by definition excludes Yankees (northern whites of with a classic Protestant sensibility (not particularly religious, but rather the attitude of “dissent” and “protest”) across all class lines as much as it excludes Black, Browns, Asians, single women, and Gays. Hence the Blue Wall.
Baud
@Davis X. Machina:
Why do people read the comments on any website? I learned early on that there, there be monsters.
Buddy H
Open thread random thoughts:
#1 Haven’t heard much from Jian Ghomeshi… I thought he was going to sue his employers for wrongful dismissal? I remember the first time I saw one of his interviews, it was with Billy Bob Thornton and his band. Apparently, they had an agreement that the discussion would only be about the band and their music. Thornton did NOT want to spend time talking about his acting career. So they agreed. Then the interview starts, and Jian starts right in with talking about the acting. When he’s done with the intro, he calls the interviewees “boys” … It seemed like a prickish thing to do, like he was asserting his control. If he would do this to a room full of tough-looking musicians, is it inconceivable that he would treat woman like punching bags?
#2 Car commercials. I’ve always found them obnoxious, but has anyone else noticed lately how they all feature reckless driving? Screeching tires, speeding and sharp turns; especially the Nissan commercials? I notice more aggressive drivers on the road; are they influenced by these stupid “edgy” car commercials?
Any thoughts?
Iowa Old Lady
Our problems in the House stem from the gerrymandering that occurred after our voters sat home in 2010.
John Lewis says the vote is the most powerful, nonviolent tool at our disposal.
I have no sympathy for people who don’t use it.
dance around in your bones
OMG I just learned from the last post that de chocolate mebbe is all gone!!!!!
A fate worse than death – almost….
I can’t sleep for whatever reason – I woke up a bit ago and thought ‘oh, I’ll go into the kitchen and make my tea!’ Then I noticed it was 3:30am. FML.
Plus. hookup roommate didn’t show up last night – I don’t
know if he went somewhere or what but it kinda bummed me out a bit.. No car of his outside so he may be….ok, shut up and quit speculating.
Or just shut up and write the book :)
JPL
@Randy P: Congress will not have to vote again on the ACA, because they have the votes in the Supreme Court to destroy the bill.
Mustang Bobby
@Buddy H: I hate the Accura TLX spot where they use Sid Vicious and The Sex Pistols’ cover of “My Way” to sell it to nerds. What idiot thought that would sell a car? The people who like punk rock won’t buy it because the car is trying to be too severally hip, and the people who hate punk rock will change the channel.
Gindy51
@Buddy H: Reckless driving, around here in SE IN and environs it is influenced by NASCAR drivers. These idiots think they are all in a race and tail gate like crazy.
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud:
And here I am!
satby
@Sherparick: I’ve told people to read Hoffer’s True Believer for years, just last week to a young libertarian friend. That book inoculated me in my teens from demagoguery, wish more people had read it when they were young. Or anytime.
satby
@OzarkHillbilly: I like Christmas as an opportunity to share and give to others; but long since opted out of the insanely commercialised greedfest it has become. And I go out of my way to wish Happy Holidays to the most ostentatiously Xtians around. Because I’m generous that way.
raven
One day of work and. whoosh, to the beach. I’ve come to enjoy the drive through Troy, Elba and into DeFuniak Springs. Lake DeFuniak is one of the two almost perfectly round circular spring-fed lakes in the world.
Mustang Bobby
@raven: Watch out for sinkholes, or as we call them, pre-lakes.
Baud
@satby:
I like Christmas because I get a day off.
Betty Cracker
@Buddy H: I despise the seasonal car ads in which spouses surprise each other with a new Lexus on Christmas morning. Unless I were married to Bill Gates, I’d prefer that my spouse consult me on such a large expenditure. And even if I were Mrs. Bill and received a fleet of beribboned Bentleys for Christmas, I might act gracious about it, but I’d be thinking, “A car is a unique PERSONAL decision, you lunkhead! How about allowing me to test drive it next time?”
NotMax
Yes to the post, if the 2016 election were held, say, tomorrow. The caveat is that one or more major catastrophes between now and then (or, although a more remote possibility, a strong enough unconventional contender like Perot was) could conceivably throw the it’s in the bag extrapolation being made for 2016 into a cocked hat.
Amir Khalid
@Buddy H:
I blame Jeremy Clarkson.
@dance around in your bones:
Hmm. It seems to me, you rather like getting laid. ;)
raven
@Betty Cracker: Left you a couple of December songs back yonder.
NotMax
@raven
Napoleonic palindrome:
Able was I ere I saw Elba.
raven
@Betty Cracker: I found this really cool bike/planter thing at the “Trade Shop” behind out house. It’s painted in a bunch of pastels and has four flower pots on it. It’s one-of-a-kind so I bought it for the princess for either her birthday ox xmas.
Betty Cracker
@Sherparick: I think Republicans are more diverse than is generally supposed. (I mean diverse in motivations and thought, not minority participation.) “Reactionary Mind” and “True Believer” describe a scary subset of them, and that subset is definitely a key factor within the party to a degree that our own purity ponies can only aspire. But #notallrepublicans. (I don’t intend to DEFEND them, only to understand them, the better to undermine them, my dears.)
raven
@NotMax: You got a gift over there!
PurpleGirl
Raven and Schemazel: See the Chocolate thread for comments from me to both of you re Peeps and Erlich’s Population Bomb.
Betty Cracker
@raven: I saw (heard) them, and thank you! Now the bike/planter thing sounds like a great present for a gardener. And you probably didn’t have to sign a five-year note to purchase it!
raven
@PurpleGirl: I just read it, ewww!
satby
@Baud: That too.
dance around in your bones
@Mustang Bobby: Jeebus, really?? They use the Sex Pistols??!!
And I thought it was bad when Mercedes Benz used Janis’s song back in the day (she was conveniently dead, so I guess her ‘company’ sold the rights…).
‘Course, I never had the money to buy me a Mercedes Benz. I guess I should have just asked the Lord.
raven
@Betty Cracker: $65! And I wrote earlier that we got an adjustment on Bohdi’s dental work so we are choppin in high cotton! I have almost 5 bills saved for fishing so here we go!
NotMax
@raven
Which prompts me to inquire how goes the sewer line project?
(Yes, I realize it was an innocent typo.)
dance around in your bones
@Amir Khalid: Ahhhh – who doesn’t?
‘member, my husband died some years ago and I haven’t had any sex since then :)
OzarkHillbilly
@satby: Sucker…. ;-)
@Baud: Holidays are potholes in the road of life.
Gene108
@Suffern ACE:
I think what does not get noticed is that the younger generation, Gen-Y (if that is still a valid pop reference to folks in their early thirties, who seem to be either lumped in with npGen X or the millenials) and the millenials is they both have a strong distrust of government.
There was an era when something was deemed fit for use from the government and people trusted the decision. If you look at the resistance to GMO crops, for example, or realize the bulk of anti-vaxxers are from this younger generation – as they are the ones you g enough to have kids needing vaccines – the Democrats have an uphill battle in winning their trust and restoring some level of trust in government.
People have argued here that the MSM is geared towards older viewers and thus is more conservative and younger folks get news from non-traditional sources, but from what I’ve observed those sources often amount to nothing more than memes on Tumblr, Instagram or Facebook.
There are a lot of disaffected youths, who I think are not inherently liberal, in the sense they think government can be a force for good, who who may fall for a certain level of libertarian truthiness.
superdestroyer
@Baud:
How important is voting, if, as the writer points out, it will not matter during presidential elections, or state wide offices in the blue states. How many people will be going to the polls in 2016 and not voting in any election that is decided by less than 10% of the vote.
What Chris Ladd does not mention is that the Democrats have adopted a long term strategy that may not help them achieve their policy goals even if it does help them win elections.
raven
So Sunday my tenant tell me her heat doesn’t work. I crawled under the house and verified that the ignitor work and said I’d get my HVAC guy first thing. She messaged me yesterday that there was something wrong with the gas and the company was coming out. I just went out to talk to the guy and he said, “yea, it didn’t work because they had the gas turned off”!! Jesus H Christ, I’m crawling around in the goddamn dirt and SHE had it turned off!!! Kids!
ThresherK
@Buddy H: It’s not “lately”. I can’t remember the first Canyonero (and yes, SUV and trucks, not sports sedans) ads I saw with the product driving up the side of a goddamn building, or over other traffic, literally on top of other, lesser, vehicles.
I chalk up road rage to the id of people driving these vehicles without any experience of piloting a real truck–not even the old Japanese-built Big 3 models (LUV, Ram 50, Courier)—and coming to the shocking realization that the world won’t part for them like the Red Sea before Moses.
And I was raised on the front seat of a series of Dodge trucks*, which, if you wanted to drive 75mph on the interstate, you had to want it!. No cossetting comfort and safety features–you knew the limits and the damned thing warned the unwary waaaay ahead of time. A perfect symbiotic relationship was formed between operator and machine, and a respect for the size and hazard posed to others.
(I don’t mean I lived in them, just that we had them in lieu of sedans. Not that the sedans of that day were anything as posh and controlled as a plain Chevy midsize today.)
satby
@Betty Cracker: Betty, since you’re still on, when I was seriously sleep impaired in England for a couple of weeks, the chemist at Boots suggested Kalms and / or Kalms Sleep. No link because I’m on my Kindle, but you can get both on Amazon. Tried Kalms, and for me it did stop the 2 am mind races that usually keep me awake. As soon as I have disposable income again I’m ordering both, because one night about a week ago I slept a whopping 57 minutes. My fitbit verified that, I thought it was less. I didn’t want to go a prescription route either.
raven
@NotMax: Last week the city dude told me there were two paragraphs in the TOC of the contract that were near done and then it would move on. I fully expect to get some kind of notice from them saying it’s ready and imperative for me to meet with them. . . right after I leave town through the 1st of December.
Amir Khalid
@dance around in your bones:
One score and ten years ago, when he was head of Chrysler, Lee Iaccocca wanted to use Born In The USA in a car commercial. Bruce famously told him, “No thanks, mister.”
Baud
@Gene108:
Everyone hates government, including a lot of liberals, based on some of the rhetoric I’ve seen. Who exactly is going to lead this fight to renew support for government?
PurpleGirl
@satby: Eric Hoffer is still on my book shelf; one of the best political writers there ever was.
Gene108
@Iowa Old Lady:
Gerrymandering is an issue, but our Constitution gives disproportionate representation to rural areas compared to urban areas, by its design. As Republicans have a strangle hold on rural votes, they have an inherent structural advantage in Congress.
Also, O’Donnell made the point thus GOP waive only amounted to 52% of the total vote in favor of R’s. My converse to this is Obama only managed 53% of the vote in 2012.
There only needs to be a 2% to 3% swing, either way, in how people vote to shift the political landscape of the country one way or the other.
NotMax
@raven
Might suggest giving the dude your e-mail address and letting him know you’ll be out of town, just in case.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: I worked on a house once where the parents gave their children a car on their 16th birthday by parking 3 new cars in the drive for them to choose from. (usually a BMW, a Mecedes, and… I forget the 3rd). The parents were really nice people and as down to earth as any super rich person I’ve ever met, but their kids were the most entitled, useless bunch of brats as I’ve ever had the displeasure of interacting with.
ThresherK
@Mustang Bobby: Oh, “My Way” just doesn’t work, no matter who performs it.
It is an English adaptation of a French original…
Actually, I’ll stop right there! The success likelihoo of any creative work described with the above sentence fragment pretty much makes my case.
But, if you need to know: It is an English adaptation of a French original song, whose lyric described the travails of a relationship likely ending. That was tossed out and new words written to fit. Yes, they sing nicely, with all the soft and hard consonants and short and long vowels in the right places. But the sentiment never really went with the tune, to my ear.
raven
@NotMax: That’s been the primary mode of commo for a while. I have a buddy that was a construction supervisor at UGA for 30 years and he will step in if need be.
NotMax
@OzarkHillbilly
For whatever it may be worth, they had to be at least marginally better than the Menendez brothers.
Gene108
@Sherparick:
Ladd misses an important, though cynical GOP strategy: Make government so dysfunctional and possibly corrupt that people get discouraged that things can actually change or get better and only the most dedicated partisans will show up to vote.
This happened in 2010, when a lot of folks were so frustrated over the slow pace of the recovery, their enthusiasm from 2008 just evaporated. I saw this from some folks, who thought about sitting out the 2012 election, again because of the slow pace of the recovery but were spurred to care by how much of an asshole Romney is.
Until the media holds Republicans accountable for their radical positions, most folks are going to be infected with the “both sides do it” bug and not realize how much crazy the Democrats are trying to overcome and/or hold back.
chopper
@dance around in your bones:
Eh, I’ve seen the pogues and the clash used to sell cars. shit, that makes me feel old.
raven
@Mustang Bobby: Last year we were at the beach when one of the coastal dune lakes breeched the dunes. It turned the gulf red for a mile within an hour. These kinds of lakes only exist in Oregon, Australia and on 30A so it was really cool to see it.
C.V. Danes
Total NOT coincidence.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Heh!
Betty Cracker
@satby: Thank you — I’ll check it out!
@OzarkHillbilly: What the hell were they thinking? That’s a recipe for producing entitled monsters right there.
NotMax
@ThresherK
Well, Shirley Bassey does a creditable job with it. Although in this clip the camera zooms in so close sometimes that one can almost see the remnants of what she had for lunch.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
The first part of the article was interesting, the second part was pure comedy.
Perhaps Chrisladd might want to stop playing “No True Scottsman” and ask the question “Were are these great and bold conservative economic policy ideas for the 21st Century, beyond fuck the poor and browns, hiding?” Most likely nowhere because conservatism is all BS. The reason why more people identify themselves as “conservatives” and at the same time support liberal policy is conservatism has become this playdo thing that can mean anything to anyone.
OzarkHillbilly
@NotMax: Yeah, I suppose so, but if you want to talk about leeches sucking the very life out of the American economy, I suspect* that bunch is near the top.
*one kid was nice and appreciative, he might have turned out alright.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: They grew up on the lower end of the socio-economic spectrum. As best I could figure, they were remembering their own childhoods spent with out the things “everybody else” has and not doing what “everybody else” does. They really were nice people, they just couldn’t deny the little darlings anything.
satby
@Betty Cracker: Hope it helps! It did me, but everyone is different. I suspect Kalms Sleep is what I should have gotten, and Kalms for high stress days. That’s how I’ll use them when I get them again.
KS in MA
@Buddy H:
#2 car commercials: They’re trying to sell them to guys?
AxelFoley
@Iowa Old Lady:
This.
schrodinger's cat
I can has Balloon Juice meetup? I am going to be in Philly in mid December.
rikyrah
@Sherparick:
good comment
rikyrah
@Iowa Old Lady:
tell it.
preach.
For those in Florida, and especially those in Kansas…whatever happens there is on you and don’t look for empathy when the states continue to crater.
dance around in your bones
@Amir Khalid:
I remember that, and good for Bruuuuuuuce!! Like I said I think Janis got screwed ’cause she was , well – dead – and her record company could do whatever the hell they wanted with her song rights.
I remember thinking she would have been appalled.
Patrick
True. But they will just as easily win it back in 2018 when the Dems have to defend 25 seats vs 8 for the GOP. And 2018 is a midterm when Dem voters don’t vote.
gvg
Car commercials have always been full of unrealistic dangerous driving. You should wonder why you are just noticing it now.
We used to think Republican officials wouldn’t do anything too bad for economic interests. Lately they have proven that they don’t really listen to wall street anymore. Some of their economic plans like their delusion a US default would go OK are insane from a real economic view. The ignoring hospital and insurance companies needs to try to repeal ACA or not take medicaid expansion are other examples. The odd thing is the revert to social regression being more important than business seems to be funded by individuals who are super rich. Those idiots seem to not know how their own wealth accumulated. It is only possible in an society which has built an intricate transportation system and financial system which people have learned is trustworthy. That didn’t just happened, their were lots of people, companies and government regulations not to mention courts enforcing contracts and safety. These fools think our conditions just magically fell out of the air. Someone who has always had clean air to breath that appears free doesn’t realize what will happen if it is polluted or just not there anymore. Its really odd that some very rich men are so clueless about how things work that are so related to how they got rich.
dance around in your bones
@chopper: Whenn I have a TV, I have this instant reflex that just mashes the mute button when commercials come on, so I guess I missed those ones.
It’s gotta be galling for the artists, even if it’s lucrative.
Gene108
@gvg:
Government, at some level, protects the weak from the powerful. Thus you have laws against assault, murder, etc.
Without the government retaining the super rich they probably figure they can squeeze even more out of the economy for themselves, as the tools the rest of us have to fight back peacefully – courts, the vote, etc. – will not work for us at all.
There’s no limit to greed, when you hit a billion dollars in net worth and think it is not enough.
Betty Cracker
@gvg: Good points. The CoC used to keep the worst of the yahoos in check — and may yet keep them from completely burning things to the ground. But I’m not as sure of that as I once was, for the reasons you outlined above.
The obliviousness of the current crop of robber barons (Kochs, et al) doesn’t surprise me, though. They’re trust fund babies who bought into Ayn Rand’s fantasies and imagine themselves supermen and their inherited wealth their just reward. There are few people I truly wish ill upon, but they are among them.
Tone In DC
@Betty Cracker:
Und you have vays of making zem talk.
;-)
RSR
This thread is probably dead, but billmon had an epic 20+ tweet thread on precisely this same premise just after the election. (Maybe Wed after?) He reached similar conclusions.
https://twitter.com/billmon1/status/529876282834944002
Elizabelle
@RSR:
Thank you. Will check it out.
Do you see Higgs Bosun Mate on Billmon much? Had heard he was still commenting there. Always wish him well.
Matt McIrvin
Ladd’s pessimism is heartening, but way too many things can go wrong for Democrats between now and then to really take it to the bank.
Thing #1 is that something takes Hillary Clinton out of the picture without a viable candidate to replace her. I don’t like having all the eggs in that one basket.
Thing #2, there seems to be another weird boomlet sparked by some article of liberals announcing that they support Rand Paul because of foreign policy. It’s probably the sort of thing that gets magnified by the Internet, but it still worries me, in part because so many comfortable white voters about my age who supported Obama seem to have these quasi-libertarian feelings lurking just under the surface.
Matt McIrvin
@gvg: The way I see it, the super-wealthy don’t expect to do badly if the economy goes into the toilet; in fact, it benefits them. They’ll lose the most in dollar terms, but do they care? Money has a declining marginal utility, and in fact the real utility of their holdings could increase if there’s a deflationary spiral, stuff gets cheaper, debt becomes harder to repay and there’s an army of desperate unemployed waiting to serve them. Rich people in less-developed, poor countries have immense power and live like kings.
Matt McIrvin
…Pessimistic thing #3, the gains at the statehouse/governorship level have the effect of generally narrowing the bench of Democratic politicians with national potential, which is the same damn thing that’s been hobbling the national Democratic Party for decades. Just being the party of the Presidency isn’t enough to actually get things done, and probably isn’t sustainable.
Llelldorin
Ladd sounds like Cole about half-past-Shrub. I think the main takeaway from that blog is that the odds of Ladd’s blog title becoming deeply ironic in a few more years is about 80%.
This seems to be one mechanism in the ongoing crazification of the GOP:
SANER REPUBLICAN: «Some obvious point that the GOP base doesn’t want to hear at all.»
GOP BASE: TRAITOR! PINKO! LIBTARD MOONBAT COMMIE FASCIST!
SANER REPUBLICAN: Wait, are you guys all insane?
GOP BASE: Benghazi! Foster! MILLENIUM HAND AND SHRIMP!!!!
SANER REPUBLICAN: «Gets new voter reg form and switches parties.»
The really depressing thing is that the above playing out over and over again doesn’t seem to actually shift public support for the GOP nearly as much as you’d think it would.
burnspbesq
@Buddy H:
From where I sit in SoCal, it’s hard for me to tell which direction the causation runs. I think the commercials for small Japanese cars, like the Nissan Sentra and Honda Civic, might actually reflect (rather than drive) the outrageous behavior of the teenage and college-age Asian kids who are given these cars by their parents when they get their licenses and proceed to go all Fast and Furious with modifications and treat the public roadways as their private playgrounds.
True story: when I went to pick up my iPhone 6 at Cerritos Center on launch day, after parking I walked past a heavily modded Sentra with a “MILF Hunters” sticker in the back window. Shows the mind-set we’re dealing with here: aggressively immature and stupid.
ETA: I actually think the current Sentra ad with the guy driving around the periphery of downtown LA blasting Billy Idol out his open windows is kinda cute.
Spinoza Is My Co-pilot
@Davis X. Machina:
I actually did read a fair number of comments there, and most were not nearly as bad as I expected.
I take it the “graveyard” you refer to here is the doomed future electoral prospects for Republicans posited by Chris Ladd.
It would be pretty to think so but I don’t see it, for two main reasons that Democrats were actually doomed in these mid-terms and, I fear, will find it very difficult to win House majorities in many more electoral cycles to come. The Senate, I think, will swing back and forth with slight majorities for either side. I expect the same for the Presidency (Democrats do not have a “lock” on the Presidency anything like the Republican lock on the House).
First, is the structural advantage that Republicans have as mentioned by Gene108 in comment 58.
Second, and even more important, is the deep versus broad conundrum that Ladd describes in his article, but as I see it that conundrum works not to the Republicans disadvantage, but to the Democrats.
As Ladd tells it, Republicans are in trouble because their support amongst the electorate has grown deeper but not broader. They’ve doubled down on the crazy, but are thus out of step with national trends.
That much is true. On most policy and even worldview arguments the country largely supports the liberal positions, from gender and minority rights (now even including gay rights) to a less bellicose foreign policy to environmental protection to an economy structured to benefit ordinary people and not just fat cats and even to gun control.
However, this does not necessarily translate to Democratic electoral success because such support, though broad, is not deep.
Republicans can count on most true believers in core conservative positions to support and vote for Republican candidates, minority view though that may be.
Democrats, on the other hand, cannot count on a lot of potential voters who seemingly agree with liberal positions when asked, because too many of these people don’t actually care enough about them even to vote. And too many who do bother to vote can even be persuaded to vote Republican precisely because their commitment to any liberal positions is pretty shallow. Part of that shallowness is on Democratic leadership (or lack thereof) part is on these non-voters themselves.
Bumper-sticker nutshell? “The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity.” Crazy wins cuz crazy cares.
That, more than anything else, explains what happened in the mid-terms, and what, I’m afraid, will cause Dems to struggle in the future, especially for Congress.
TriassicSands
The GOP has a better chance of holding the Senate in 2016 than the Democrats did of holding it in 2010 or 2012. In both those cases, the Republicans lost the Senate by nominating radical idiots who couldn’t keep their mouths shut. This year, with candidates like Gardner (CO) and Ernst (IA), who were every bit as insane as GOP candidates like O’Donnell, Angle, and Akin, the GOP took the Senate because the lunatics moderated their messages. Of course, retirements could alter the picture in either direction, but right now, I’d say the GOP has a good chance to hold the Senate in 2016.
There are only 4 Republicans up for re-election who won by single digits. They’re in PA, WI, IL, and Alaska. The PA and IL seats could easily go to Democrats, but I wouldn’t count on either WI or AK. Wisconsin voters have shown their stupidity by voting repeatedly for Walker. Ron Johnson will have unlimited cash. Murkowski won a fairly tight 3-way race, but Alaska just got rid of Begich. You bet on a Democrat in AK in 2016; I won’t.
On the Democratic side, Reid would have to be seen as vulnerable. I think it’s fair to say that Nevadans (and everyone else) hate Reid, and the only reason he won last time was because the GOP nominated monumental lunatic Sharron Angle. I wouldn’t bet on Reid in 2016.
That leaves NC, which just tossed Kay Hagan out. Incumbent Burr won last time by 12.1%. Is he really at risk?
In addition to Reid, Bennet in CO could also be vulnerable. He only won by 1.2% last time and CO voters just elected major lunatic Cory Gardner over Udall.
The picture just isn’t that rosy for a Democratic takeover in 2016. So many of the Republican incumbents won by so much last time, that it simply isn’t plausible they’ll lose in 2016.
Zero chance of holding the Senate? That’s a crazy assertion. It will be close, but I don’t see it as a lock for Democrats.
J R in WV
@gvg:
I’ll point out the the Koch brothers inherited hundreds of millions of dollars from their father, who made that money building state-of-the-art factories and pipelines for Joseph Stalin in the USSR back when they were our sworn enemies (I mean more than they are now or were during WWII).
So they don’t come from a background of partriotic Americanism, and they didn’t have to earn a stake to invest into making their current obscene fortunes.
I imagine the other mega millionaires contributing to the secret political committees also inherited huge estates, which they easily built into even larger huge fortunes.
Look at Williard Romney, who is not a shining star of financial genius. He inherited a large grubstake from his hard-working father, and parleyed it into an even larger pile of moola. His kids won’t know about hard work and fairness, not at all.
So why should they or the Koch brothers lift a finger to help the rest of the world do well? No one helped them get rich, right? Well not so much, they’re conveniently forgetting where their money came from.
This is partly why the Republicans hate the estate tax so much, they all made a pile from dear old dead Dad, and don’t want to share any of that pile for the common good. They’re all as greedy as can be, and want to remake our financial systems to enable their greed in the future.
Despicable, one and all.
Ned Ludd
@Mustang Bobby: Meh. The first Ramones album came out in ’76 and “Never Mind the Bollocks…” in ’77. That first(-and-a-half’th) wave of punk rock is now pushing 40 years old and is firmly entrenched in nostalgia mode. The punk rock aesthetic has been so thoroughly co-opted that we get absurdities like the recent Martha Stewart “punk rock party”. We’re well into punk rock’s “deadhead sticker on a Cadillac” phase.
rk
Really! I’m not buying it. They have the congress and senate and majority of state houses. Fact of the matter is that it is irrelevant what the majority of the people want. The system is firmly in place that republicans control the agenda even when they lose. We can’t get gun control even when overwhelming majorities favor it, we can’t get a minimum wage increase, we can’t do anything about climate change, women’s abortion rights are being slowly eroded (now we fight for access to contraception) and we don’t even bother to talk about unemployment. And last but not least Obamacare may be destroyed bit by bit by the republican supreme court. Republicans win even when they do obviously destructive things. I don’t see this changing.
Mnemosyne
@rk:
Depends on what state you’re in:
That’s the truly bizarre thing about the US electorate — all of those states voted for a minimum wage increase AND voted Republicans into office. At the same time.
dww44
@Matt McIrvin: This has been evident for quite a few years and I’ve seen nothing from the Democratic elites that attempts to address this issue and remedy it at the state and local levels.
Must say we gave it the old college try here in 2014 and made respectable showings. Our far superior candidates lost to mean old Republican white guys. Sadly, though, those two superior candidates did have name recognition because of their parents/grandparents. With no statewide positions from which to gain recognition we Dems are at a severe disadvantage. Time for Nunn and /or Carter to run again. He’s far more likely to do it that she is, imo. But we have to develop a bench somewhere somehow.
rk
@Mnemosyne:
And therefore basically negated the vote. We see this time and time again . Look at Kansas. Brownback ruined the state and yet was voted back. Same with Florida. I have no idea how this changes. Democrats may win here and there, but things seem to swing back to republicans pretty quickly and republicans are never punished for bad governance. A significant number of voters identify with republicans no matter what.
TriassicSands
A significant number of American voters are incredibly stupid and/or ignorant. My neighbor is a fine example. Ask her a series of policy questions and she aligns overwhelmingly with Democrats. However, she hates Nancy Pelosi and will never vote for a Democrat. She has no idea what the GOP stands for today (ignorance) and when presented with actual facts, she rejects anything that doesn’t agree with her long-held innate biases (stupidity).
Since this is a problem that seems to get worse, rather than better, I’m increasingly pessimistic about the future of this country.
The Democratic Party is at the mercy of people like my neighbor — people who should be voting overwhelmingly for Democrats. Yet, each election, they vote for candidates whose policy agendas are antithetical to their own, and they do so thinking that their votes make sense. And they do make sense, once you accept just how stupid and ignorant these people are. Stupidity, ignorance, and the third common attribute of many, many American voters — apathy — will continue to put Republicans in office long after demographic changes should have made the GOP a permanent minority party.