Sam Wang posts this chart and relates it to the following:
To identify possible causes, we should look to events prior to the jump. The obvious event is the President’s newfound liberation from the pressures of the election cycle. Since the November election, the President has done the opposite of what many people expected: he showed strong assertiveness to Congress (shortly after November 4), acted boldly on immigration (November 20), made frank public statements on race (December 17), and normalized relations with Cuba (December 17). Could it be that voters like a strong leader?
Here’s another possible cause I’d like to examine:
I don’t know what’s driving Obama’s approval ratings. Like Sam Wang, I would like to think that his more assertive stance since the November election turned some people around. But I also think that anyone who doesn’t have a durable opinion about the job Obama is doing after 6 years of watching him is probably going to be swayed by something other than a policy decision. Of all the things that have gotten better in the past few months, the one fact that everyone can see, no matter what the media tells them, is that gas prices are significantly lower. So if we’re guessing about a small swing in one of the most ephemeral of all political measurements, that’s mine.
WereBear
I have never understood the American obsession with gasoline prices. But it must have to do with the obsession to drive giant gas hogs, too, along with a willingness to put up with soul-crushing commutes.
The bizarre part is how I’ve seen people line up, cars idling, to save a nickel on cutprice Wednesdays. So they save, like, a buck, and they probably spent that idling in line.
aretino
If the polling cross tabs show approval rating by ideology, then that should settle the question. If the surge comes from Obama’s new firmness, then it should be driven by disaffected liberals coming back on board with the president.
Botsplainer
I filled my tank for $25 two days ago. Beats the shit out of nearly $50.
Now, if retail banking would let up on the stranglehold on small business loans and consumer loans, we might actually get somewhere
FlipYrWhig
@aretino: But that’s probably not a very big number in the first place, because his support has always been strong among those describing themselves as liberals.
I assume it’s just the fading of the two SOMEONE SHOULD DO SOMETHING crises from before the election, ISIS and Ebola.
WereBear
That’s a rational response. But a lot of the time, it’s just not rational.
Joe A
It is disaffected liberals coming home. Hispanics for one are coming back because of the executive order on immigration. Add that to rising consumer confidence, dropping unemployment, growing economy, millions more with health insurance, record stock market highs and of course the drop in gas prices.In general people are feeling a lot better and the President reaps those benefits
BR
The huge danger in low gasoline/oil prices is that it’ll put shale oil out of business, which means at minimum a regional recession in fracking areas (ND, TX, etc.). And that could have ripple effects.
BGinCHI
@BR: Sounds perfect, actually. It’s like having a decrease in the pollution and asshole business.
Mustang Bobby
Gas prices are all over the place here in Miami. I live 17 miles south of downtown Miami down US 1. Around the corner at my usual station it’s $2.27. Forty blocks up US 1 it’s $2.49, and then another forty blocks closer to town it’s $2.79. Paradoxically, as you go south and get closer to the tourist spots in the Keys, the price goes down until you hit the Middle Keys where it starts to go back up until you’re in Key West and the nearest off-island gas station is in Havana.
The Republicans will do their best — or worst — to claim credit for the improving economy by saying it was their refusal to work with the president restored faith in the business community and kept him from following his Kenyan Muslim gay socialist ideals.
BR
@BGinCHI:
I agree on one hand, but the worry is that shale oil companies have been selling derivatives on shale leases and such in a manner reminiscent to pre-2008 mortgage funny business. While shale oil is a smaller business than houses, I don’t want to know what happens when yet another set of derivatives goes bust.
BGinCHI
I think you are spot on, MM.
Gas prices are weirdly psychological for Americans. People will drive miles to save a few cents a gallon (use your google to search for sites that direct you to cheaper gas in your area and you will be amazed by the obsessiveness). This is not very rational, as even on a tank you will only save a buck or two at the most. It’s just the idea of it. I suspect it goes back to those teenage years where you want so badly to drive but only have a few dollars for gas.
MattF
I’d guess that gas prices are an important factor. But there’s also the possibility that the Disloyal Opposition is suddenly facing the awful responsibility of having to get something done in the next two years. From that perspective, little old Obambi doesn’t look so bad.
BGinCHI
@BR: Gotcha. If it hurts people who had no stake in it, yes.
Why can’t it bite the hand that fed it? Oh, right, lack of regulation.
Joe A
If enjoying having more money at the end of the week is an obsession I guess most people are obsessed. Lower gas prices makes a significant difference in the lives of many low and middle income individuals. It is not an abstract obsession.
Tokyokie
@BR: layoffs are already occurring in oil exploration. Tertiary recovery techniques and the like are just not economically feasible with oil prices as low as they are.
BGinCHI
@Mustang Bobby: 1.80 for regular in IN and 2.60 in Chicago.
BR
@Tokyokie:
Exactly. The thing I’m wondering is whether people (and the broader economy) will be happy in the short term due to low gasoline/oil prices but then if the layoffs / shale derivatives will cause a recession in the medium term.
ET
I can’t help but feel that what people see/hear can influence how the feel about things even if it isn’t always how the really feel. The election is over so the relentless blame-Obama for every bad thing that has ever happened has quieted down – though not totally gone away – so people aren’t bombarded with people trying to convince them that Obama is a bad president so vote Republican. Now that the campaign stuff has gone away things have reverted to a more normal and true place.
Howard Beale IV
@BR: Those who put the derivatives together made their money, as they always do. Those who engaged in derivatives trading, no so much.
What this has been signalling all along, but most of the domestic media has been to stupid to realize, is that the global economy is really in the shitter-the price of gas follows the classic supply and demand model, and the talk about the Saudi’s manipulating the market is just bunk.
angler
The negative campaign ads are over. The drove down approval into the election.
samiam
“Palin is going to run for prez” Markymux still trying to decide whether the world is round or flat.
Absolutely clueless as usual. Just normal presidental approval cycles. Doesn’t mean much when they are down or up.
NCSteve
@aretino: “Disaffected liberals” who are so disaffected that they would tell Gallup or Pew that they disapprove of him during the fever of an election cycle are such a tiny slice of the electorate that it’s an effing rounding error.
If one was looking for a reason unrelated to gas prices (and dear lord, it’s horrific how powerful that number is as a predictor), one might consider the fact that his numbers quickly began rising shortly after the 2010 midterm as well. Why, it’s almost as if the second the barrage of negative ads funded by our Galtian Betters ended and our ever fair-minded mainstream media quit hysterically regurgitating the Republican Election Month Hate and Fear Frenzy memes verbatim, his numbers quickly rebounded to their natural and normal place.
Robert
well, fracking is a bad idea for a lot of reasons. One of the largest drivers for natural gas, and fracking is the Big Oily guys want to sell our reserves on the spot market overseas, for large profits, and no accountability, or taxes. Poisoning of the USofA for profits is but one of the corporate back stabbings of the USofA. the other big reason is the boom in pipelines. XL was not a new idea, and if the Canadian folks are rejecting it, says a lot about the folks who support it. Just think, if the Canadian Petro State cannot get a pipeline through their own country??? there are a lot of unanswered questions as to the Patriotism of the Republican party…
Howard Beale IV
@WereBear: Perfect timing for Chrysler to start selling the Dodge Charger Hellcat-comes with two keyfobs: a black one to limit the max horsepower and the red keyfob to let it reach its maximum of 707 HP. Starting price is $66,000 including the gas guzzler tax (yes, that still exists.)
0-60 in 3.5 seconds. Some idiot in Colorado bought one and totaled it in two hours.
Kay
I just think it’s the economy, that what’s happening on the ground eventually bleeds into political media.
I’m almost reluctant to say it because I’m superstitious and I don’t want to “jinx” it but people here really are working again. They’re more than “working” they’re moving around, going from job to job looking for 50 cents more an hour or better working conditions or more/less overtime. I think they were too scared to do that before. My clients are working class and middle class and while it’s one area and not in any way a representative sample they are working and I think they feel more secure.
The President gets the blame for a bad economy no matter the reasons and in my experience the President also gets the credit for a good economy so it always seemed “fair” to me (if not maybe “accurate” to blame or credit one person). Maybe he’ll get credit like he got blame. Part of it is marketing. I thought Clinton (the Clinton people) were really good at crediting Bill Clinton with the economy during his terms. I was a supporter and even I was a little embarrassed at how they manipulated that message to direct all credit to him. It worked.
Botsplainer
I can solve a lot of the economic imbalances with a handful of fixes:
1) prohibiting material commodity speculation by non-end users.
2) punitive tax treatment on capital gains on shares held (or purchased under an option, time to count only when the option is exercised) under 5 years (exceptions for death, redemption for first home and qualified educational expenses for taxpayers earning less than some arbitrary cap).
3) company gets tax credit on the payment of dividends to individual US domiciliary shareholders.
4) corporate officer pay+perks that exceed 10X the pay the President of the U.S. receives will be taxed as income to the shareholders.
5) Cap the individual mortgage interest deduction at $20,000.00.
6) for all individuals and businesses with gross assets over $1,000,000 (no credit for mortgages) the holding of real estate valued in excess of 40% of that total will result in a surtax of 10% on the whole.
This program accomplishes a number of
things, the chief of which is to get people to invest in entities that provide a return, dampens speculation, knocks back corporate officer pay, encourages equities, makes the price of commodities relate to actual market demand and eliminates the foolish commitment to real estate as a nonproductive growth vehicle.
Of course, it will never happen.
Iowa Old Lady
@Botsplainer: Can I vote for you?
We’re back from our vacation travels. It’s good to hear interesting talk again.
gogol's wife
@FlipYrWhig:
Yes, neither of which has actually gotten any better. Strange, isn’t it?
Baud
@Botsplainer:
FWIW, # 6 would require a constitutional amendment to be done at the federal level.
Shirt
Well, having recently graduated to retirement status I keep getting negative thoughts about the president when chuck steak (Chuck!) is $7.99/lb.; 85% ground is $5.99/lb. Bread $4.99/loaf unless you buy the cheap stuff
Does the NSA provide a bread & butter report?
J R in WV
@Robert: I disagree! The Republicans are completely amoral, placing power and profit above loyalty to their fellow citizens, willing to stab the nation in the back for a small bump in profitability!
They have no claim on patriotism whatsoever! [ This tiny screed needs more exclamation points, !!! ]
RepubAnon
@ET: I agree – and I find this frightening if it’s a good measure of the number of voters who simply aren’t paying attention to anything other than negative ads and how much it costs to get to and from work (i.e. gas and heating oil prices). It implies that short of a major meltdown that can’t be minimized or forgotten through propaganda, people are forming opinions and voting based on very short-term thinking.
I also agree with other commenters that there’s a bit of “Leader Principle” (the Germans called it Führerprinzip) occurring. It’s a very bad thing for the country if people value a strong leader who shouts America #1, and vote them into office without looking at where that leader proposes taking them. It’s too late to worry about where the stampede is heading after the leaders have led the herd off a cliff – or into Iraq, or into a land war in Asia, or…
Note, too, the rise of far-right scapegoat-driven parties in economies where economic austerity was implemented. I’ve always felt the reason Republicans advocate austerity is that it becomes easier for a party whose platform is based on hate and fear to get elected if the economy has turned very bad. The mistake Dubya made was in timing – Dubya allowed the looters to tank the economy at a time when there was no way to blame the result on Democrats.
Howard Beale IV
@Botsplainer: The real big problem is that the compensation committees are incestuous-those need to be staffed by the rank and file of the corporation, not from the boards of other corporations who turn around and staff your compensation committee.
Howard Beale IV
Guess I found a new word that triggers moderation. Ooookay…..
Here’s a hint: “x is best when kept in the family”
shelley
Hmmm, the NewsMax headlines…Looks like Rush Limbaugh is shocked to discover there are actual black people in the UK.
KG
The answer to why Obama’s approval numbers are getting better is obvious: all of them, Katie, all of them
Baud
@Kay:
I
blamecredit Obama!Botsplainer
@Baud:
Bummer. It needs tinkering to get around that.
raven
No Gator thread?
Howard Beale IV
@RepubAnon:
If Dubya was smart he could have pinned it all on Slick Willie for signing all the legislation that opened the floodgates.
But since Dubya agreed with it, he couldn’t.
Alex S.
It’s the long game. He’ll leave the presidency with a positive approval rating.
Scott Supak (@ssupak)
Well, Sam asks about Latino approval specifically, and crosstabs from Gallup say white approval unchanged from Nov 1-20 to Nov 21-Dec 8 while black approval was down 3, and Hispanic approval was +12.
So, unless only Hispanic people approve of lower gas prices…
mikefromArlington
Maybe it’s also cause of all the Dish viewers that aren’t being spoon fed absolute garbage.
Propaganda only works if you can reach the public.
the Conster
That 18,000 is a lovely round number for a Dow average, also too. Unemployment below 6 also feels good, and normal. Obamacare is working for people who chose to use it, and left the wingnuts who already had insurance sputtering because all their death panel/granny killing nonsense didn’t happen, so light might be dawning on white people that Obama isn’t actually an affirmative action incompetent secret Muslim jihadist out to destroy America.
Matt McIrvin
@RepubAnon:
There were ways. I remember hearing that the market was crashing because it was responding predictively to the imminent election of Obama.
Matt McIrvin
@Scott Supak (@ssupak): I’d say that’s a pretty clear signal of what happened.
Matt McIrvin
@Matt McIrvin: …That article only covers the period ending Dec. 8, though, and the total move was relatively small in that period. The bigger spike more recently could be something else.
The Pale Scot
@Howard Beale IV: It’s the Saudi’s refusal to manipulate the market that the oil bugs are bitching about.
The Saudis are looking to strangle shale in its crib AND tell Moscow that attempts to diminish the control the petrodollar cycle has on world finaince will not be tolerated.
Judge Crater
Possibly it’s that all the things Fox News has been scaring people with have not come to pass. No nationwide Ebola outbreak, no immigrant tide sweeping across the southern boarder with Ebola, no explosive cost of healthcare via Obamacare, no ISIS/Mexican drug lord alliance blowing up shopping centers in Texas, no collapse of the economy, no $5.00 dollar gas, no Russian advance into Eastern Europe (Putin’s oligarchy is dropping the price of Vodka as the Ruble craters and inflation soars). All the right-wing’s scare tactics and strawmen have sort of dissolved like the Wicked Witch of the West.
Compared to the leaders of the rest of the world (Europe, Russia, China, Japan, the Middle East) Obama looks like Augustus of Rome.
The Pale Scot
@Howard Beale IV: Pff..
And I’m sure it handles like a Dodge Charger also.
catclub
@BR: My understanding is that it is high yield bonds issued by the shale and fracking companies. Derivatives on those could also be an issue (double pun).
J.D. Rhoades
@Judge Crater:
The answer I got when I pointed this out to a wingnut on Facebook: “The only thing we got wrong was the timing. It’ll happen just like we predicted.”
You can’t fix stupid.
catclub
@The Pale Scot: Demand going down ( just a little) combined with the Saudi’s refusing to drop supply – which they usually do.
Lower gas prices mean economies somewhere are contracting. Nonetheless, the US consumer (and voter) thinks it is a good thing. Also has no memory that prices can go back up, so buys a large pickup truck and SUV. Look at the automakers recent reports.
mai naem mobile
@BR: i do not give a shit about Texas or ND and their economies. The positive is that it will force Rick Perry to explain his states shitty economy. He could choose to blame it on his Republican successor and see how that goes down.
J.D. Rhoades
One of the Obama administration’s biggest messaging failures is this: they’ve refused to take either credit or blame for things beyond the President’s control. This gives the RW assholes one of their favorite talking points (“he never takes responsibility for anything, it’s always someone else’s fault”) while not being able to mitigate it with “see what happens when we’re in power!”
catclub
The spike in oil prices summer 2008 was apparently driven only by speculation, since it was NOT demand driven, as economies all over the world were already shrinking. Its timing was perfect for throwing out the GOP president.
Conspiracy theorists have probably noted it.
Ruckus
What has caused the wild drop in gas prices? Speculators no longer speculating? Oil suppliers dropping the price long enough before an election to maybe keep a deranged nut job who would control the largest military from gaining much traction, thereby maybe keeping peace or at least a better situation in the middle east?
For any reason I’d place gas prices as the number one reason for President Obama’s numbers. It cuts across almost all demographics, it’s widely apparent to anyone who drives, so most everyone. And like it or not it is one of the strongest ways people use to think about the strength of the economy. Has been my entire life.
aimai
@BR: Sad. so Sad. But its not like they were spreading their newfound wealth around.
Botsplainer
@J.D. Rhoades:
Your average goldbug/Jekyll Island/AudittheFed screamer holds passionately that the USD is going to collapse like a Jenga tower at a table full of Parkinson’s patients any day now; the 103 years of solid economic history notwithstanding.
Kay
@Baud:
He needs that huge group of people who were always on tv w/Clinton just talking, talking, talking. They were securing The Legacy because it was also a reflection on them, their work, so they were invested. It was over the top to me and I’m a partisan. I was skeptical after a while. “What exactly did Bill Clinton DO to “create” these jobs?” :)
They were good at it.
Ruckus
@the Conster:
Was at a store yesterday and the owner made some almost disparaging remark against President Obama along the lines of how expensive things are. I just stated, well things are much, much better than they were 5-7 yrs ago. How is your business? Better? (this is a store that’s been there for decades) He looked at me and said why yes, yes they are. Couldn’t tell if he meant it or was just placating a customer. But it’s a great way of changing the direction without even mentioning that name which is hated for some reason, can’t put my finger on it…..
AxelFoley
@Botsplainer:
Fixed that for ya.
Matt McIrvin
@catclub: After the ’08 crisis because acute, the price of gasoline fell through the floor along with a lot of other things… which failed to comfort people much, because they were all losing their jobs or terrified of it. Anyway, it happened to be really low on Obama’s first Inauguration Day, which eventually led to a remarkably stupid Facebook meme about how much Obama had made the price of gas increase.
Baud
@Kay:
I’ve been lamenting the absence of positive reinforcement forever. That’s what the blogs should have been, frankly, but they decided to go in a different direction. Unlike other commenters here, I don’t think any amount of messaging from the Obama team could have avoided what happened. Nothing was going to stop people from going through whatever process they needed to go through.
BR
@aimai:
Yeah, agreed — the drillers in ND and TX and elsewhere had it coming. But I saw a chart recently that showed that except for the handful of 6 or 7 fracking states, aggregate employment across the remaining 43 or 44 states is still below pre-2008 recession levels. So if they have huge job losses now, and various derivatives go belly up, we could have a recession start on a national level by the end of the year / early 2016.
trollhattan
@WereBear:
It’s the only consumer product universally priced for public viewing by all and purchased in the open by all who must use it. It’s also one place where all segments of society cross paths.
tybee
@Howard Beale IV:
1ncest?
eta: ayup. got it in one.
catclub
@BR: Recessions more typically start after an economy wide boom. We have not had that for the last 6 years, we have had a struggling economy barely getting traction – so no boom, but also no recession.
The lower jobs totals? Government employees. States hammered teachers in the recession. Compare 2001-2003 when government employment went way up under the GOP. Big government Obama my ass.
Howard Beale IV
@The Pale Scot: It’s a slap across several nation-state’s faces-the real question will be whether they can keep this up for a significant amount of time before it causes significant internal problems. We’d like to think that we’re putting the squeeze to Saudi Arabia by letting them pump their hearts out but that could just be wishful thinking.
The Raven on the Hill
The economy has genuinely improved for most of us in the past few months; that’s probably one reason. Another is Obama’s more confrontational stance which, alas, does not extend to the TPP. And, finally, people are realizing that the loonies have just been voted charge of the asylum and they Kenyan socialist atheist Muslim is looking a lot better by comparison.
Corner Stone
God, this interminable thread! It’s almost like torture!
Botsplainer
@catclub:
It’s a little weird – I think the cycle of boom bust has been somewhat disrupted by GOP obstructionism. The real estate and commodity bubbles didn’t get reinflated, and the equities position may, in fact, be stronger.
Mnemosyne
@J.D. Rhoades:
Funny, that’s what Harold Camping said, too.
Kay
@Baud:
I disagree on the “blogs” part to a certain extent just because the Democratic Party isn’t like the Republican Party. Republicans follow their base. I think it’s because the GOP base never, ever really buck economic policies that harm or threaten wealthy people, so it’s easy for GOP politicians to obey their base. It’s what their donors want too.
Corner Stone
@Botsplainer:
Are you out of your mind?
Real estate is approaching a complete bubble as oligarchs from other fucked places are panic buying property in NYC, MIA and CA.
And the 18,000 Dow is a seriously scary thing. That isn’t being driven by business fundamentals. Companies have been taking their excess profits and inflating the underlying stock with buybacks so the execs could score huge payouts.
Corner Stone
@The Pale Scot:
I, for one, think it’s hilarious that anyone could say the Saudis are not manipulating the oil market. Of course they are. They’re trying to drown innovation and future competition. Just like they do any time solar power breaks through with a new innovation or cheaper methodology for construction.
Corner Stone
@Kay:
Everyone who votes Republican is like a Ladies-in-waiting to be wealthy. Any day now. Any…day…now…
catclub
@Corner Stone:
But they are paying cash, so no distresssed mortgages and no CDS bubble. There is no Tanta saying the things about no doc loans, or weak homeowners. Plus, that bubble is limited to places like NYC and SF. Las Vegas and Phoenix are NOT having huge building booms. Not saying they could not start, but they are not there now.
Corner Stone
@Howard Beale IV:
I saw one of those Hellcats and I was like, “What the everloving F??”
I immediately started lusting after it. No idea why anyone would ever use the lower BHP fob. Who knows when someone’s going to straight roll up on a brother at the next stoplight?
Another Holocene Human
@Howard Beale IV:
I haven’t followed commodities closely in 7 years since I was stupid enough to run for union office. But when I left off the commodities market–including crude–was being dominated by big sloppy sloshing vats of money, money seeking value, return, safety, etc, such that commodities were being gobbled up to be held and not delivered. There were persistent rumors that the big banks had tankers of crude off shore. The problems on the trading floor were so bad that industry experts were recommending transaction taxes (I wonder whatever happened to that) to burn off the slosh and slow down the stupid. All of the specubucks led to market dislocations that caused real people to experience hunger and food insecurity and the resulting unrest toppled several governments. No, it wasn’t twitter, it was fucking assholes in NYC and London big banks specu-vesting on petroleum and by extension rice, plus I think Russia had a shitty year on wheat so basically everybody got fucked. If you look at petroleum prices when the credit crunch happened the bottom fell out. Supply and demand my azz.
You have to seriously smooth out some curves and wave away “market effects” before you get down to supply and demand in the petro market. It’s only on margin and only can be perceived dimly beneath the nauseating but typical commodities market random walk lurching around. (Mandelbrot did work on cotton markets which I find interesting here.)
US petro usage is not growing like some people would like despite the fact that the US economy has improved. I’m not up on what is going on globally but German consumer confidence looked pretty fucking good this year too. I’m not sure how the whole work is supposed to be entering super recession electric boogaloo when two major consumer economies just hit the BUY!! button. But maybe I’m just stupid.
Also the impact to US economy of dropping crude prices will probably depend (hat tip to a poster on another site) on how leveraged the frackers are and I don’t know that, maybe some analysts have made it their business to find out? It depends on how things unwind, could be a disaster or just find for the Class I railroads. (Needless to say I’m much more interested in the financial health of the RRs than the frackers and crackers.) I got in some trainspotting just after xmas and saw a LOT of freight moving by rail, cars, hazmats, lumber, and whatever the fuck gets transported in boxcars these days, apparently it’s not orphaned children. Oh, yeah, CONTAINERS!! hundreds of them. (Which is why I’m kind of shocked to see boxcars anymore.) If China, Israel, Canada, South Korea, etc can’t make a buck off selling us tonnes of shit they’re doing it rong.
Corner Stone
@catclub: The bubble is in inflated pricing, not the underlying derivatives market that we saw in 2008.
What happens when they want/need their parked cash back out?
Another Holocene Human
“US petro usage is not growing as some would like” for a number of reasons including the fact that Americans bought much more fuel efficient cars during the recession (shades of early 90s) and vehicle miles traveled is no longer in a growth phase, it has slowed down or even shrunk per capita. I’m not sure where building efficiency or alt fuels are at, not sure they’re as big as the roadway picture which has been pretty dramatic. Also airlines have invested in more fuel efficient planes and businesses slowly but surely are using telecommunications more which may eat into growth.
Another Holocene Human
@Corner Stone: Valet park or when your BIL pulls strings to get a spin in it. BIL will of course demand real key, just pretend you lost it or the dog ate it for the weekend until he’s gone.
KG
@Corner Stone: I’ve got a Challenger RT Classic, has about 375 hp… I can’t begin to imagine having almost twice the horsepower
Another Holocene Human
@Corner Stone: Where’s the short squeeze, genius?
The Cash Is Out There.
So what forces these cash holders to cash out? A new tax? Lol.
Kay
@Corner Stone:
I love the “socially moderate” Republicans here because they just sort of trail off after “I don;t agree with the Republican Party on everything..”
I just finish that up for them mentally: “but I’m willing to trade all those ‘soft’ civil rights issues for low taxes and no regulation”.
They agree on the money part, so all else is negotiable :)
Allan
I approve of PBO’s more confrontational style..
PBO’s approval rating is going up.
I conclude the public approves of PBO’s more confrontational style.
This is known as confirmation bias. Needs moar data.
Corner Stone
@Another Holocene Human: If you think we’re dealing with a stable regime in Russia, or any number of places these panic buyers live, sweet dreams, asshole.
Another Holocene Human
@KG: Some of my classmates in high school killed themselves in a high HP Ford, curvy road, 200 year old oak tree …
I’d rather get my thrills in a simulator.
(I like big iron, it’s the power vs control issue that gets me, too much power in too small a package, first it’s fun, then it’s deadly. I say this as someone who would totally drive an Aveo on the highway and yes I doubt they’re that great in a crash. I love me a jalopy with a lot of oomph.)
Corner Stone
@KG: Long ago I once had the last carbureted model Mustang GT 5.0 with a five speed. After a few tweaks I eventually got it up to just under 250 HP. And at the time, for a daily driver, that was pretty damned nasty.
Years later I had a GSX-R 750 and that was a truly scary experience, more than once. Never happier than when I sold that bike.
KG
@Another Holocene Human: I know enough to avoid aggressive driving in an American muscle car on a curvy road (they’re made to go straight). But she’s a lot of fun on an open freeway
@Corner Stone: yeah, mine is a six speed, but it’s too new for me to even think about trying to tweak anything. I’ve recently been given a company car (a Ford Fusion hybrid with electric motor tin can that lacks a soul), so my lovely Challenger sits in the garage most days
a hip hop artist from Idaho (fka Bella Q)
@Corner Stone:
Things that are not good.
Corner Stone
@KG: I’ve been thinking about getting a used Nissan 370z with a six speed, and keeping it long enough to teach my son how to drive a manual.
Probably will end up buying an older Honda Civic with a manual so we can grind it out with less risk/insurance costs.
Mike in NC
Americans would cheerfully elect the zombie corpse of Joe Stalin as president if he promised gas would stay under a buck a gallon.
Baud
@Kay:
Based on my own experience, the money part alone would still cause me to support Democrats. Any increased taxes I might face is more than made up for by better economic conditions.
Corner Stone
@Mike in NC: If Joey kept gas sub-$2.00 we would amend the Constitution to elect him Leader-For-Life.
Josie
@Corner Stone: What do you think will happen to the Dow that makes it scary and when do you think it will happen? Obviously I know next to nothing about economics, but things seem a bit shaky to me.
David Koch
It was the Colbert Bump
Baud
@Mike in NC:
“Uncle Joe. He’s my bro. He keeps gas prices low, low, low.”
Tree With Water
Polls are indeed like grasshoppers, filling the the ears of politicians and driving them mad.
Corner Stone
@Josie: I’m not sure about the “when” but, ISTM, that corporate fundamentals do not support current levels. So that means the pricing we’re seeing is mainly psychological. And when that kind of sentiment turns, it turns quickly and nastily.
As has been well documented, MNC’s have not been investing in Cap-Ex, or R&D or any number of things that would broaden the economic base, create jobs and put people back onto secure footing. Instead, they have used their massive, record profits and piled them all back into stock buybacks. That artificially drives the price up, denies distribution to shareholders, and makes the stock-rewarded C-level executives look like princes among men. All the rewards are going to a select few due to the artificial stock prices.
So, again IMO, I’m more than a little watchful as to why exactly we’re at 18K on the Dow. If I knew when and what, that would be pretty solid for me, but I don’t claim to. Just acknowledging it seems like irrational exuberance, at this point.
chopper
@Josie:
Hyperinflation!!!one!
Josie
@Corner Stone: Thanks.
Botsplainer
@Corner Stone:
Teaching a teen to drive a clutch if they initially drove an automatic is the surest form of hell on earth.
I learned on a clutch, but my Jeep was new when kids started driving and we had a parking pad full of beaters that were automatic.
David Koch
@Kay: Kay, how does your community feel about Jeb?
DougJ
Gas rules everything around me
Kay
@David Koch:
I think Republicans here like him. They love Kasich and Jeb is the same sort of Republican. We don’t have a big Tea Party faction.
Democrats here like Hillary, too. She’s popular.
I think Jeb will be the nominee because he checks the “governor”box that Republicans pretend to care about and they’ll be really comfortable with his “family” and his “background”. Plus, George W Bush won, twice, and they really want to win.
David Koch
–
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@David Koch: You don’t say?
@Kay: I keep hearing that Wall St likes Jebbie, and money is what put Romney over the top, but it seems to me, with my very outside view and disastrous prediction history (I predicted they’d never nominate McCain or the Mormon), that he’s up against the toughest primary field they’ve had in a while. I don’t think Rand Paul or Cruz are electable (I thought the same about the Shrub, so..), but they’re a lot tougher and smarter than Santorum or for that matter Romney or any of the other non-clown car candidates of the past twenty years. And the CW is saying that Jeb takes away Christie’s money base, but Christie might not be willing to wait (why, I don’t know, even before the bridge thing I thought that his best move was to go graze in the tall grass and pose as a wiseman till 2020 or ’24). Something about Jeb suggests to me he doesn’t have the stomach for a real fight with Cruz and Paul.
henqiguai
@DougJ (#101): Gas rules everything around me
Um, beano? But for the luv of dog, suppress any open flames…
henqiguai
I hate WP
Howard Beale IV
@Corner Stone:
Ah-yep-This was the game IBM was playing for years, and the last two quarters they got their ass bit-they had to stop the buybacks; hell, they had to pay GloablFoundaries a billion to take their wafer fab plants off their hands.
IBM’s getting ready for another deck chair on the Titanic exercise-the question is, will this one succeed like the past ones have?
Corner Stone
@efgoldman: Most trenchant thing he’s ever said.
Corner Stone
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Sorry, but that simply isn’t true IMO. It’s Jeb or Mitt. Rand, Rick, Rafael are all also-rans.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I think moderate Republicans want someone they’re comfortable with and someone who can win.
I knew they’d nominate Romney, but that was easy because no one else was possible. You’re right that it’s more competitive now, but I don’t think the senators are the people Jeb has to beat. I bet he’s much more scared of the governors.
If Republicans in Ohio have a choice between Paul and Cruz, who they don’t “know” and Bush, who they “know” (in the sense that they’re familiar with his family) they will pick Bush.
I think it;s true of Clinton too. Democrats here feel they “know” her- there won’t be any surprises, she’s reliable, etc. That really counts for a lot here. I don’t know if you remember this from ’08, but the Obama campaign had people they called “validators”. One of them was a factory owner here. He wrote an op ed in the local paper that essentially said “you don’t know Obama but I do and I’ll vouch for him”. It was a big part of the Ohio campaign, that “vouching”.
Bush and Clinton won’t need it.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I also think the three generations of Bush political and business relationships are a huge advantage. It was such complete bullshit, the coverage of that part of George W Bush’s campaign. Please. He was NOT “just” the former governor of Texas. How long have the Bush family been powerful? He used all of that, and he barely won even with the huge advantage. Look at that family and think about the relationships they have in all 50 states after 50 years, political business, you name it. It’s a HUGE advantage.
I think they ignored it because we’re in love with the idea that people rise on “merit”, but God, what a lie in that case. How many powerful people does George HW know, just him alone? Thousands?
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Jeb Bush bothers me already. There’s something smug and I don’t know… well-fed about him that I just find gross. Kasich has the same look. They look prosperous and comfortable in a way that makes me think “don’t you have enough? Let someone else have a turn“.
The Republicans in the courthouse don’t like that Kasich doesn’t wear a tie, which makes me laugh. They associate that with “finance” or “flashy” people, people you can’t rely on. “Why doesn’t he wear a tie?”
Patricia Kayden
@shelley: I could have told him that. Born there and have plenty of relatives there to this day. Limbaugh is an idiot. There are Blacks all over the world.
Frankensteinbeck
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Being semi-competent put Romney over. His opponents couldn’t get on the ballots in all 50 states, for pity’s sake. Interpret that to the next election how you will.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Kay: I think Cruz and Paul will/would be spoilers, especially Cruz. Whatever else he may be, Cruz is not a lightweight like Santorum, and he has a Buchanan-like mean streak, if he goes after Jebbie, it will get nasty and personal. I take your point about the Bush family network, but that establishment is exactly what the Cruz-Palin and Paul wings hate. I think this year we may finally get the crab pot I’ve been waiting for since ’08. Jebbie may limp over the finish line even more beat up than Willard
fuckwit
Political junkies forget how ignorant Americans are of politics. Most people don’t understand the basics. Even way too many supposedly-educated liberals (of the Bully Pulpit variety) have failed basic Schoolhouse Rock: Presidents don’t make laws, Congress does, and Presidents are supposed to be basically just cops and clerks enforcing and administering the laws.
The only thing non-political-junkie Americans care about is the economy, stupid (Clinton DID understand this, and very well. I don’t think he did us any favors by cynically exploiting this ignorance for his own political gain).
Economy does well? President is awesome!
Economy does poorly? President SUCKS!
Important, but hard to control, exceptions driving votes are serious and pressing social issues, like racism facing communities of color, and war when there is one (or fear of one when there is not), and social/tribal issues like guns, god and gays. Both Bushes exploited war for political gain, the second for long enough to steal a second term, the Rethugs have the guns/god/gay-panicking contingent reliably locked up for generations, and commuities of color remain reliably Democratic regardless of the economy because issues of basic civil rights trump momentary economic self-interest. But the huge majority of Americans care only about immediate selfish economic self-interest, and can’t be bothered with anything else.
Nevermind that Presidents have hardly any control over the economy, and Congress has only secondary influence over it, over a period of years, and only with powerful legislation (and I’d say PPACA is one of those, as was TARP and the stimulus).
American politics is mostly magical thinking to most people. It’s like pressing the elevator button over and over again thinking it’ll make the elevator arrive faster. You have an R button and a D button, and you keep randomly bashing the buttons like a lab rat in a cage until food drops out of the chute. Whichever button you pushed last time, if it worked, that was great… if it didn’t, then push the other one. If one of ’em worked REALLY well once, then keep pressing it a few times (harder each time!) until giving up and trying the other button. This is basic superstitious behavior and it should be obvious to anyone who is familiar with the work of B.F. Skinner.
I’ve said this for years and am long since tired of repeating myself. I see no signs of it ever changing.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Ruckus: Quais-dead thread, but …
http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2014/12/a-comment-on-oil-prices.html:
The scary part is, Gail the Acutary at OurFiniteWorld.com says that many producing countries need $70+/bbl oil to meet their budgets. $50/bbl oil is going to cause a lot of pain all of the world. (WTI was last at $52.69/bbl today (for Feb 15 delivery)…)
Cheers,
Scott.
Cheers,
Scott.
Kay
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I don’t know enough about Cruz to say but I think Rand Paul “hating” the establishment is complete bullshit and 100% marketing. His followers may hate the establishment, but Rand Paul does what’s good for Rand Paul:
I do envy Republicans all those governors. Democrats better focus on running states. They’re losing states like Illinois and Maryland. They have a big problem at the state level.
WereBear
@fuckwit: Yes. You’re right.
Mnemosyne
@Kay:
I haven’t lived in Illinois for 25 years, but having a Democratic governor elected in 2002 (Blagojevich) was a really big deal and only happened because George Ryan was so corrupt. And even then, Ryan was much more of an old-school Republican — one of his last acts before leaving office was commuting all of the remaining death row sentences to life without parole, because there had been so many people on death row found innocent. I have no idea how the people of Illinois are going to react to having a new-style, Tea Party Republican governor, but it ain’t going to be pretty for anyone.
ETA: Both houses of the Illinois General Assembly are still majority Democrat so at least the damage will be somewhat limited, unlike in Wisconsin where they have a Repub governor and a Repub majority in both houses of the legislature.
Kay
@Mnemosyne:
Democrats have to have more than one stand-out popular governor. Yours, in California.
They’re bleeding at the state government level. 2010 had more states under GOP control than at any time since the 1920’s. It’s worse after 2014.
The worst part is, they seem blissfully unconcerned. They’re doing absolutely nothing about what obviously have to be structural changes in the organization.
Mnemosyne
@Kay:
Oh, I’m not disagreeing with your general point. Frankly, the only reason we have Jerry as a governor is that the Republicans are too f’ed up to field a candidate with a snowball’s chance of winning. Our California Democrats are no great shakes.
But, to me, a Republican governor in Illinois probably didn’t seem like that big a deal to most voters, because they still think that Republicans are people like George Ryan — corrupt, sure, but reasonable people you can work with. They’re going to be in for one hell of a rude awakening in these post-Tea Party days.
WereBear
@Mnemosyne: It’s startling how many Republicans are completely oblivious to just how radically the party has changed.
Change-blindness.
Ruckus
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
They don’t have to be middle east oil producing countries to worry about a war. Yes there are profits to be made off of war, it has always been thus and probably always will be. But war can disrupt more than just the region that it is being waged in, and the oil producers are mostly world wide and if they figure out that war is, in the long run, worse for their business….. Also if you look at all of the conservative possibilities, only one really is business orientated in a way that is positive to oil companies, and that’s Jeb. Although what you see and hear as campaign fodder is not what we would get from his reign of stupidity. The Bush family dynasty is a very nasty piece of work and Jeb would be no better than his idiot brother.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Ruckus: Whatever his true feelings, JEB seems, like his brother W, to be a prisoner of right-wing memes based on his actions. Compare JEB’s actions on Terri Schiavo with W’s with Harriet Miers. Just from the way Miers made her acceptance speech at the White House, it was clear that W was hoping the “base” would see her as one of them.
But she wasn’t a fire-breathing member of the Federalist Society from 3rd grade, so she wasn’t pure enough for the right.
JEB isn’t a Teabagger, and his latest book went over like a lead balloon, so even if he were to win the nomination, there would be little enthusiasm for him. It’s hard for me to predict how Congress would work with him. I assume that Teabaggers wouldn’t kneecap him at every turn the way they have with Obama, but I also assume that they would pressure him at every turn to maximize their power. And rile-up-the-base things would still get more attention than important policy issues.
Close Gitmo because it cost $2.7M/yr for each detainee? Hell no! We’re going to double it!!!1
:-/
Cheers,
Scott.
(Who hopes this is intelligible. Blame Baud’s Illness, otherwise (I caught something at 3 AM Friday.)
RSR
Trend lines from Apr-Jun and Jul – Jan converging. Makes me more curious about suppressing it from Jun-Sep.
mclaren
The most likely answer to the question “Did he do something or did something happen?” is: neither.
In the book Sway: the Irresistible Pull of Irrational Behavior, the psychologist-authors point out that humans have an irrational compulsion to attribute specific causes to what are essentially random ergodic fluctuations.
The plain fact of the matter is that all politicians’ approval rating fluctuate randomly. I see no evidence that the change in Obama’s approval rating is due to anything but a random walk.
In short, the entire press coverage of this non-issue, as well as the front-pagers’ posts about it, represent a monument to innumeracy.
Ruckus
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Probably dead thread but here goes.
The conservative party line was crap long before the teabaggers and Jeb is a conservative. Will they work with him? Who knows but there is a much better chance of that than with President Obama. Will he do stupid shit like his brother? I’d bet money on it and I don’t have extra to do that with in case I’m wrong. Start a war? Entirely possible and I’d say probable. Sign bills that would move this country back to what it was like before the original tea party? I’d bet a very likely on that if we have a conservative congress to pass them. Would he be as bad as the other conservative idiots that want the job? I’ll give him credit here, probably not, but then they are so far out there that your dog couldn’t be that bad as president.
Conservatives have such a warped sense of history, empathy, religions, law, entitlement, democracy, civil rights, (and maybe a few others that I haven’t listed) that they have arrived at what could be called a perfect storm. And what is incredibly stupid and asinine is that they are ready and willing to drive all of us off a very steep cliff to prove it.