Josh Zeitz, at Politico, says, “Serious presidential contenders used to run multiple times; today they can’t. This is why“:
… Mitt Romney will not suffer Harold Stassen’s fate. But his decision not to seek the presidency in 2016 raises an interesting question: When did it become conventional wisdom that there is no second (or, at least, no third) act in presidential politics?
Henry Clay, whom Abraham Lincoln called his “beau ideal of a statesman,” ran for president four times. No one remembers him as a joke. William Jennings Bryan was a three-time Democratic presidential nominee. Also not a joke. Adlai Stevenson, twice nominated. Hubert Humphrey, Stassen’s fellow Minnesotan, ran three times. Ronald Reagan lost the GOP nomination in 1968 and 1976 before his victory in 1980. Definitely not a joke. Richard Nixon: lost in 1960, won in 1968. A joke, but for other reasons.
Today, it is nearly inconceivable that serious politicians can run multiple times for the presidency, especially after losing a general election. Every four years, the Mike Huckabees and Rick Santorums reemerge, but their campaigns are usually about something other than winning the presidency—building a personal brand, perhaps, or sending a message. The real contenders—those with a plausible path to the White House—don’t get a permanent free pass. This relatively new, unforgiving rule is partly a reflection of the presidency’s growing power since the 1930s, but it is also a product of how the nominating process has evolved. Until 50 years ago, a small number of big-state political bosses tightly controlled the selection of presidential nominees. In the late 1970s, all of that changed. The rising influence of television increasingly made politics resemble entertainment, while the fallout of the Vietnam War and civil rights movement shattered the authority of political bosses and elite political institutions. Out of this disruption came the system we know (and love, and loathe) today—the four-year presidential horse race, the campaign reality show, Iowa and New Hampshire, Super Tuesday, a nauseating array of debates and candidate forums.
This is not a format that is hospitable to “losers.” The modern nominating process has an unwritten rule: You lose, you leave. To understand how it all came to be, it’s necessary to wind the clock back to 1967…
I think Zeitz overestimates the particulars of the three candidacies he gives the most attention — the unholy trinity of Eugene McCarthy, Jimmy Carter, and Ronald Reagan. But it’s an interesting read…
Pogonip
What are you doing, Anne, shoveling with one hand and typing with the other?
JPL
@efgoldman: Yes they are. Cut public services and then scream that they are failing. It’s a tried and true technique and I hope someone calls him on it.
Anne Laurie
@Pogonip: I can’t shovel for more than twenty minutes or so at a time (at best). Checking back here gives me an excuse for more breaks.
Baud
Interesting history, but kind of shallow in relation to the analysis.
Belafon
We have reached entertainment time: if it can’t be done before executives get bored, then it’s on to the next one.
Anne Laurie
@efgoldman: I tried to warn the other Massholes about Baker, but nooooo…. Coakley just wasn’t perfect enough.
I’m old & increasingly housebound. I’ll survive the Baker era, if I don’t stroke out from listening to the evil sumbitch. He’s basically Willard Romney with a slightly lower Aspergers ranking and a lot less money.
jl
Too bad Reagan had so many chances.
I checked Jeb! on the wiki, and my memory did serve. Jeb! is a serial ‘contemplator’ for running for elective office. He should be bow out for the sake of his party, IMHO.
FlyingToaster
@Anne Laurie: I beg to differ; Coakley was worse.
When your choices are between Beelezebub and Lucifer, we all have to make the best of the mess we’ve got.
Baker is still a tool. He directly caused this mess before he went back to the private sector; it’s time to clean up after himself.
Mike J
Related: http://fivethirtyeight.com/datalab/10-of-the-biggest-presidential-primary-busts-in-recent-history/
raven
The author/publisher writes: “Melanie’s Marvelous Measles was written to educate children on the benefits of having measles and how you can heal from them naturally and successfully. Often today, we are being bombarded with messages from vested interests to fear all diseases in order for someone to sell some potion or vaccine, when, in fact, history shows that in industrialized countries, these diseases are quite benign and, according to natural health sources, beneficial to the body.
FlyingToaster
@efgoldman: Fells Acres. Nanny after Nanny after Nanny. My next door neighbor. Etcetera, etcetera, etcetera.
I won’t even get into her policy positions.
For me, the last election was just like Weld v Silber. I didn’t have much use for Weld, but I wasn’t fucking voting for Silber.
Tenar Darell
@efgoldman: Yeah, taking money from public transport will really help the boosters get the Olympics. /sarcasm
Schlemazel
We will not be happy as a society until we have completely destroyed every bit of public infrastructure and are left eating each other for survival.
Also, I am compelled to remind people that the ‘second act’ line has to do with plays not encores. The second act is where the story is laid out and texture added. In the US we won to jump over that beautiful, if difficult, stuff & get right to act 3, the climax.
JPL
@FlyingToaster: You are getting grumpy.. btw I replied to you down below.
I tend to agree though, that Coakley wouldn’t be trying to cut services but what do I know, I haven’t lived in MA since the Brooks years.
smintheus
Reagan was considered something a joke in ’76, and was definitely treated as a perennial joke early in the ’80 primary.
Baud
@raven:
FWIW, this is NOT a good pick-up line.
Turgidson
What is this guy talking about? There are reasonably strong 2nd-try candidates in almost every contested primary and a lot of them win the nomination. Mittens was 2nd or 3rd in 2008. Hillary is going to be the next president and she was 2nd in 2008. McCain was 2nd in 2000. Dole was 2nd in 1988. I’ll except GHWB and Gore since they were able to enter as frontrunners as sitting VPs to popular presidents, but technically they were 2nd-chancers too. Hard to believe now, but Edwards was a non-joke candidate in 2008 after 2nd in 2004, but was up against better choices.
Sure, the parties are not falling over themselves to give previous nominees another shot at the nomination, but that’s a small sample size and includes very old nominees in Dole and McCain, and even Kerry to a lesser extent.
PurpleGirl
@raven: Yeah, riiiight.
Pogonip
@Anne Laurie: Well, be careful, we don’t want anyone to get hurt, you included.
raven
@Baud: Pretty good huh?
FlyingToaster
@JPL: IIRC, she wanted to increase both sales and income taxes. Specifically a return to the double rate on “unearned income”, which would hit both the elderly and small investors really hard.
I would support a tiered tax rate like the feds; I voted for an increase in the gas tax. I’m not inclined to sink what few gains we’ve made in the economy with hitting the little people harder. If you want people to earn, don’t overtax earnings. If you want people to save, don’t overtax savings. Yadda yadda yadda.
And every damn thing being about suing someone; Jeebus, stop it already.
FlyingToaster
@JPL: The 8 foot snow mountain out my dining room window is getting to both me and my 7 year old.
JPL
@FlyingToaster: Yup but Baker will do neither and cut public services. He’s reminds me of Arnie Schwarzenegger.
You have to remember that although, I was raised there and love the state, I know live in Gov. Deal country. Gov. Deal when elected for his first term was on the verge of bankruptcy and is no longer.
Baud
@raven:
The trolling comments on that book have been viral for the last few days.
Chris
I still can’t make up my mind how I feel about this.
On the one hand, the old political system, where the power resided with a bunch of “big-state political bosses” each running his own personal fiefdom, is the kind of thing that doesn’t feel like it should be mourned – it reeks of feudalism.
On the other hand, the new system that replaced it wasn’t any more democratic or less feudal. We traded in the old congregation of political bosses for a congregation of corporate fat cats and their paid lobbyists and pundits, all equally unelected, with no more accountability, probably even less, than the old Tammany Hall types.
FlyingToaster
@JPL: He’ll try.
Romney tried, too. See how well that worked for him.
raven
@Baud: I’m a day late and a dollar short, a friend threw it up on their FB page.
Chris
@smintheus:
This is something I keep in mind whenever someone says that X, Y, or Z Republican candidate is just too looney to be taken seriously.
I mean, heck, a lot of the time, I’m the one saying it. And usually, I’m not too worried… but still, it’s always a mistake to forget just how fucking crazy some of the people we’ve elected have been.
Irony Abounds
@Turgidson: I had exactly the same reaction as you did. It may be true that it is hard to get another nomination after you’ve blown it the first time, but other than GW Bush the Republican nominee in recent history has generally been the runner up from a previous run for President. Since the Democratic bench is so weak this time (contra Daniel Larison, whom I generally enjoy reading), Hillary doesn’t have to worry about Dems going for the new pretty face this time.
BruceFromOhio
@raven: Fuck the dog, what next? Pauline’s Perfect Polio? Michael’s Marvelous Mumps? Ricky’s Righteous Rubella? This makes me stabby, and there’s no vaccine for rank fucking stupidity.
Tenar Darell
@FlyingToaster: Fort living room!
raven
@BruceFromOhio: There is a list like that in the comments!
JPL
@FlyingToaster: What I remember are the icicles hanging from the eaves, which are beautiful but harmful. Take care.
JustRuss
And here in the northwest we’re, believe it or not, praying for snow. A lot of the smaller ski resorts have given up and closed for the season, and my friends are griping because there’s no place to go snow shoe. Pity us.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@smintheus: Archie Bunker’s preferred candidate, and it got big laughs from the studio audience.
JPL
@efgoldman: Reagan also made taxes less progressive. He lowered the rate for the top and did away with interest deductions that hit the middle and lower class the hardest. I never had a car loan but remember neighbors complaining about that. Of course, that was the same neighbors who voted for him.
FlyingToaster
@Tenar Darell: The mountains out there are only 5 feet high, right up to the bottoms of the windows about now.
The through-street side plow mound is 5 feet and covers almost the entire sidewalk (curb to retaining wall); the plow mound out front is 4 feet high and covers the
hellgreenstrip and all but 1-shovel-wide of the sidewalk against the retaining wall.My yard is between 18 and 30 inches up behind a retaining wall, and it’s piled 4-5 feet high, with a 6 foot mound next to our driveway.
We’re already living in Schneefestung Toaster.
FlyingToaster
@JPL: We only have them on the south corners, but they’re easily 5 feet long. And we can’t risk breaking them and damaging the roof.
Fair Economist
If the claim is that candidates don’t win the nomination if they run more than once, that’s patently false – as shown by Gore, Dole, McCain, Romney, and probably Hillary. Gore even won the general election and was robbed of it by the Supremes. And while we haven’t seen somebody run twice in the general lately, apart from incumbents, I don’t think that’s inherent, it just happened.
Mandalay
What drivel. The exact opposite is true.
Anne Laurie
@Fair Economist: Twice, a candidate can run again & win. Third time, no longer a charm.
BruceFromOhio
This is a pretty good reflection of the change in the speed of information, and the maturation of the Klown Kar Of Fail Grifter Show. It’s easy to pull up the Wiki of this candidate or that, and the quotes and articles and ad nauseum commentary that clog the intertoobz; the grifter show is self-evident. It’s also tied to the age of our candidates – once you get to be in your 70’s, running for the big chair is a big pain in the ass, and being much younger than Obama was in ’08 doesn’t have the political momentum to line up the donors. The horizon of acceptable age is narrowed as result.
Klown Kar Kandidates *should* be relegated to the Lyndon LaRouche Atomic Dustbin of History, but, alas: The Train of Gravy has been connected to the Koch Industries ATM, and that baby is clocking in some serious tonnage. Gonna get a whole lot worse ‘fore it gets any better.
@Mandalay: Indeed? Do tell.
Eric U.
I just saw something recently that said the republicans always pick someone who has run once before, and it’s their “turn.” Although searching back in my memory, that seems to be more of the case when it looks like a Democratic year
Villago Delenda Est
@raven: The reviews are filled with snark.
Villago Delenda Est
@JustRuss: What’s bad is the winter snow pack is what we rely on to get us through those dry summer months, and there’s next to no snow pack to speak of in the Cascades.
Chris
@BruceFromOhio:
The fact that there is such an enormous supply of America’s money that’s being pissed away on electoral grift and clown cars is just more evidence to me that taxes need to go up.
If Sheldon Adelson was so obscenely rich that he could afford to waste enough money to single handedly keep Newt Gingrich in the game for months, that’s far too much money. Time to fucking tax it. (I don’t care if all that money does subsequently go to drunks and deadbeats who blow it all on booze, hookers and crack. Maybe it’s not a better use of money than what Newt Gingrich does with it, but it’s not a worse one either).
BruceFromOhio
@Villago Delenda Est: Some of them are also heart-breaking, if accepted as genuine. I’ve been running across comments from the oldsters, folks who were kids in the 1950’s and their parents, and its crushingly obvious the anti-vax crew has nary a fucking clue, whatever awful, selfish justification can be concocted for not vaccinating children. We’re headed for either epidemic, or enforced vaccinations – this bullshit anti-vax fantasizing can’t hold.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
You’re making assumptions about what Newton Leroy does, or doesn’t, do with that money.
raven
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
JPL
@raven: Well the only solution is for him to run again.
BruceFromOhio
@Chris: Money is speech, the Supremes have ruled thus. And Freedom of Speech shall not be abridged. Alas, the only limit on the Adelsons and the Kochs is the sweet chariot, swinging low.
I’ve been trying to co-opt that with an old favorite, “I’ll accept corporations as people when Texas executes one.”
Not there yet.
Gin & Tonic
@raven: He owes air travel company
I remember reading a story about some helicopter pilot in New Hampshire who had some Presidential candidate on board and said “I’ll take off when I get paid, in cash.” Smart guy.
PaulW
Actually, Clay and Bryan were remembered as joke candidates. While Clay had a long career as a Senator, he still has the infamy of being one of the worst Presidential candidates of all time. Bryan’s infamy may lay with the Scopes Monkey Trial, but his political career was never as esteemed as how he was his first attempt after the Cross of Gold speech.
catclub
http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-02-09/romney-s-problems-didn-t-start-in-1968
Pretty complete refutation of the thread-top article.
catclub
@JustRuss: Does that include Mount Hood or Rainier? If so, wow.
Chris
@PaulW:
I always wondered about that. Given that half the country to this day continues to believe in creationism (not “evolution happened but God directed it,” but straight-up undiluted “seven days, because Jeebus”) – exactly how much of a joke could Bryan have been? His legacy in that respect is certainly alive and well.
Irony Abounds
@Chris: I actually think the country may have regressed somewhat when it comes to evolution. Carnival Cruises had a commercial during the Super Bowl that was simply JFK’s recorded speech about how man had an attraction to the sea because he/she came from the sea. I don’t recall reading about any uproar about that speech, yet think about if Obama made the same speech today. The wingnuts would be all over it claiming it was proof of Obama’s godlessness (as if godlessness is a bad thing). Today’s Republicans are simply batshit crazy and a black President has really driven them over the ledge.
NotMax
There are many things with which I could (and do) take issue with Ed Kilgore, but he did manage in a Very Short Read to demonstrate how vapid and blinkered Zeitz’ piece is.
eyelessgame
Three might be passé, maybe. But Nixon, Reagan, GHWB, Dole, McCain, and Romney all ran and were defeated in the primary before becoming their party’s nominee in a later election.
Ted Mills
Or perhaps….it’s about making money?
Just One More Canuck
@raven: Moby Dick Airways?
NonyNony
@raven:
Note the phrasing – “Newt 2012” owes these debts. Newt himself owes nothing – in fact poor Newtie is himself owed nearly $650K by his failed presidential campaign!
And this will never get paid out. So basically Patriot Group, Moby Dick Airways[*], CMDI and McKenna, Long and Aldridge gave Newtie a $1.8 million dollar contribution that circumvented campaign finance laws. It may have even been an unwilling contribution (though some of them may have known going in that that was exactly what they were doing).
[*] Oh come on! Newt used “Moby Dick Airways” during his presidential campaign? What – was “Don Quixote Airways” too busy to supply the metaphor?
cokane
uh Santorum is not a marginal candidate.
Enhanced Voting Techniques
@eyelessgame:
Nixon was defeated in the general election too.