.
Professor Krugman, sensible as always — “It Takes A Party“:
… [T]here has never been a time in American history when the alleged personal traits of candidates mattered less. As we head into 2016, each party is quite unified on major policy issues — and these unified positions are very far from each other. The huge, substantive gulf between the parties will be reflected in the policy positions of whomever they nominate, and will almost surely be reflected in the actual policies adopted by whoever wins.
For example, any Democrat would, if elected, seek to maintain the basic U.S. social insurance programs — Social Security, Medicare, and Medicaid — in essentially their current form, while also preserving and extending the Affordable Care Act. Any Republican would seek to destroy Obamacare, make deep cuts in Medicaid, and probably try to convert Medicare into a voucher system…
Any Democrat would try to preserve the 2010 financial reform, which has recently been looking much more effective than critics suggested. Any Republican would seek to roll it back, eliminating both consumer protection and the extra regulation applied to large, “systemically important” financial institutions…
Now, some people won’t want to acknowledge that the choices in the 2016 election are as stark as I’ve asserted. Political commentators who specialize in covering personalities rather than issues will balk at the assertion that their alleged area of expertise matters not at all. Self-proclaimed centrists will look for a middle ground that doesn’t actually exist. And as a result, we’ll hear many assertions that the candidates don’t really mean what they say. There will, however, be an asymmetry in the way this supposed gap between rhetoric and real views is presented.
On one side, suppose that Ms. Clinton is indeed the Democratic nominee. If so, you can be sure that she’ll be accused, early and often, of insincerity, of not being the populist progressive she claims to be.
On the other side, suppose that the Republican nominee is a supposed moderate like Jeb Bush or Marco Rubio. In either case we’d be sure to hear many assertions from political pundits that the candidate doesn’t believe a lot of what he says. But in their cases this alleged insincerity would be presented as a virtue, not a vice — sure, Mr. Bush is saying crazy things about health care and climate change, but he doesn’t really mean it, and he’d be reasonable once in office. Just like his brother…
One thing is for sure: American voters will be getting a real choice. May the best party win.
Sidebar: Jared Bernstein, who may be as close to a DFH as is permitted among professional economists, is pretty happy with what he perceives of Hillary Clinton’s economic policies.
***********
Apart from complaining that we have to spend the next nineteen months hashing this over, what’s on the agenda for the day?
RK
Hillary Clinton is an awful politician and campaigner and unless women tip the vote it’s Bill Clinton’s election to win. And she has blood on her hands.
Baud
Good on Krugman, but I wish he had realized this in 2009.*
* From what I understand second-hand of his rhetoric back then.
Kay
I love the preface to the Larry Summers paper.
It’s basically “if we don’t do something, there will be pitchforks”
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Krugman was right on the economics, and wrong on the politics. As an aside, I had to read Krugman back in my international trade class in grad school, he was then a young economist in the Reagan administration.
danielx
Headline in morning paper:
Good luck with that. Try not to do it again, fellas, that’s a hell of an expensive medical bill for shooting yourself in the foot.
Bystander
I’m hoping we get to vote for HRC by dipping our thumbs in some of that blood she’s drained from so many lifeless bodies.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
No dispute there. I was referring to his political outlook, since this post highlights his current political thinking.
Sherparick
@RK: @RK: 1. The whole political class (and the majority of the American people still alive now who voted in 2000, 2002, and 2004 elections in a manner that endorsed Dubya also have “blood on their hands.” So does Ralph Nader and all who voted for him in 2000, who also have a bear a significant responsibility for the disastrous environmental and economic policies of Bush-Cheney-Delay regime. Also, Roberts and Allito, rather than two Al Gore appointees, will be sill be on the Supreme Court to 2040, with the results we are living with a gutted Voting Rights Act and in a increasingly billionaire run politics post “Citizens United.” So, I don’t know why Hilary is particularly more guilty then the rest of us.
2. For a bad politician, she won two elections to the Senate (the first one being very contested and in a different political world where New York Republicans were still winning state wide offices frequently) and came within a hair’s breadth of winning the Democratic nomination in 2008 against one of the most gifted politicians in American history.
3. Finally, the United States and the world will have to endure a Scott Walker Presidency because Hilary is not your unicorn candidate? Please!.
Kay
It’s kind of heartening how little it takes to rattle someone like Summers. People say protests don’t work but the only sustained protest over wages has been Fight for Fifteen which is 20k fast food workers and 20 million in union funding.
They got a lot of bang for that buck if Summers sees pitchforks in the offing :)
Sherparick
@Baud: I am not sure what you are talking about, because Krugman, while never saying the Affordable Care Act and Dodd-Frank were perfect, always supported enactment of both laws in his columns and blogs as a good start. His most stringent criticism of the Obama and the Congressional Democrats in 2009-10 was their failure to enact a bigger stimulus and to follow through with a second stimulus to get the economy jump started as the Great Recession continued to depress demand, cause unemployment, and flatten incomes because of their “deficit fetishism.” And on the economics and the politics, he was right. Reading Krugman the last 15 years (hard to believe it has been that long since 2000) has been an education and a delight, and no one has nailed the madness of the modern Republican Party and the Economic Elite who own them then Krugman. His book “Conscience of a Liberal” is terrific.
By the way, during 2007-2008 Democratic primaries, Krugman took a “critical neutral” position regarding the candidates. But the one he tended to be most critical of was Barack Obama and got a lot push back on his blog from liberals. He pointed out at the time that Clinton’s proposals on domestic issues were more liberal than Obama’s, and that she was only slightly more hawkish on foreign policy. Another post is needed to explain why no Democrat can get elected President unless she or he demonstrates a willingness to slaughter large numbers of foreigners from the air.
Baud
@Sherparick:
Like I said, second hand. He always seemed the go to guy for firebaggers and purity trolls back then. If he was spouting the same political attitude in 2009 as today, then I apologize for the guilt by association.
Betty Cracker
Mary Katherine Ham of Hot Air doesn’t seem very bright. She’s flummoxed by a Hillary Clinton sighting at an Ohio Chipotle, in which HRC entered the restaurant incognito behind a pair of shades, ordered at the counter and carried her own tray to a table like an actual human being:
Or maybe she just wanted a goddamned chicken burrito bowl for lunch? Sweet weeping Jaysus with a side of guacamole, it’s going to be a long 18 months.
raven
@Sherparick: Unless you went to jail for not paying your taxes you have “blood on you hands” too.
Baud
I blame Obama.
NotMax
@Sherparick
Would take some issue with your point #2. Once Giulani was forced to drop out shortly before the state’s Republican nominating convention in the spring of 2000, it was essentially no contest. In the higher turnout venue of a presidential election year his replacement, the purveyor of sleaze* Lazio (despite a 1½ to 1 advantage in spending) never held a serious chance of victory.
*Ed Koch’s designation of Lazio.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
3) Benghazi!
moderateindy
Yes, Hillary is too hawkish for my tastes. Yes, she is way too much a corporate whore for my tastes. Yes, she is a thousand times better than any possible Republican that is going to run, and nobody can ever lose sight of that.
There’s was no difference between Gore and W. remember that meme? That might have had a bit of truth to it if you only paid attention to the rhetoric, and not the policy differences. Does anyone believe a Gore Presidency would have resembled the debacle that was W in any meaningful way? Sure, we still probably would have still invaded Afghanistan considering the blood lust at the time, but it would have ended there.
Cermet
@Sherparick: Wow – crushed that one!
MattF
@Betty Cracker: Note that the ‘couple theories’ are both psychologizing about the “real Hillary” and zero about, y’know, policy. Note, just for kicks, that there’s the possibility that Hillary has swung towards the left since her last run, but has anyone really noticed?
NonyNony
@Baud:
Mostly what I recall Krugman being fairly critical of Obama from the left because there wasn’t a significant gap between him and Clinton when it came to economic policy (and where there was Obama was probably slightly to her right in his rhetoric) and he was providing a corrective. Then when Obama was elected he continued to point out where Obama’s administration was not doing enough on economic policy.
As Obama moved into the second half of his first term he started becoming more of the guy who was pointing out that things were working – slower than they should have been because enough wasn’t done up front, but working. By the time Obama ran for his second term Krugman was pretty firmly in the criticizing Republicans for their nonsense camp exclusively. Probably mostly because at that point Obama was clearly only going to be able to staunch the bleeding and wasn’t going to be able to do the kinds of big things that needed to be done earlier.
NonyNony
@Betty Cracker: But if she’d turned her chicken burrito purchase into a campaign event, the same poster would have excoriated her for that as well.
(I find it hard to believe that Hillary Clinton snuck into a Chipotle in Maumee Ohio to grab a burrito and didn’t have her entire security detail with her. Is there any substance to that claim at all? Or was this someone who looked vaguely like Clinton eating a burrito and some jackass snapped a picture of her and posted it online?)
debbie
@Baud:
You can be sure Rubio will be quick to end that bit of nonsense.
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
Whew. Good thing she didn’t grab too many napkins.
Dodged that bullet.
Betty Cracker
@NonyNony: The Chipotle people confirmed it with security footage, according to the NYT.
debbie
@NonyNony:
She wasn’t alone. There were a couple aides and a couple Secret Service agents.
OzarkHillbilly
@Betty Cracker: So Hillary acts like just a regular person who knows the world is not all about her, and gets trashed for it. Got it.
Bobby Thomson
@Betty Cracker: I remember Bush the Elder losing the Secret Service to go out for the evening. That was presented as whimsical and charming.
Iowa Old Lady
@NonyNony: Yeah, they hate her because they hate her. Period.
I say again what I said yesterday. People whose “purity” keeps them from voting for HRC are like anti-vaxxers. They want to self righteously keep unsullied, but they depend on the rest of us to provide herd immunity by voting for the D. If W’s reign didn’t teach them that’s a corrupt practice, nothing will.
Baud
@Iowa Old Lady:
I saw you use that analogy yesterday, and I like it.
Peale
@Betty Cracker: it’s the most insulting burrito ever!
Baud
@NonyNony:
A craven attempt to appeal to Latino voters.
Iowa Old Lady
Mr IOL and I were talking over the weekend about how easy it will be for opponents to stumble into sexist language about HRC even when they think they’re being careful. Sexism is built into the way lots of people talk about things. Yesterday, Eric Boehlert (sp?) said HRC’s announcement was the longest “tease” in American politics. Nothing about JEB or Walker, of course. Only the woman is a tease.
It’s the “run like a girl” issue. They think of it as normal and anyone who reacts is oversensitive.
FlipYrWhig
@Iowa Old Lady: Excellent comparison. Well played.
raven
@Betty Cracker: Mika said a burrito is ok if you cut it in half and share it.
raven
Starfish
@Kay: Where is the Summers paper? I have been looking for it since you made this comment. I found something critical of our failed two party system from a week ago, but this does not seem to be what you are writing about.
Baud
@raven:
Guns don’t kill people. Armadillos kill people.
MattF
@raven: Bounced off but killed the armadillo. I hope that the gods of evolution don’t take that as a hint that defense doesn’t work against humans.
OzarkHillbilly
@raven: Even the armadillos are shooting back.
raven
@MattF: That’s one I can’t figure out.
NotMax
@raven
Now that’s shellshock.
(rimshot)
cmm
@moderateindy:
“Yes, Hillary is too hawkish for my tastes. Yes, she is way too much a corporate whore for my tastes. Yes, she is a thousand times better than any possible Republican that is going to run, and nobody can ever lose sight of that.
There’s was no difference between Gore and W. remember that meme? That might have had a bit of truth to it if you only paid attention to the rhetoric, and not the policy differences. Does anyone believe a Gore Presidency would have resembled the debacle that was W in any meaningful way?”
This. A thousand times this. I’m not excited by Hillary but I will damn sure happily support her over any rider in the quickly-filling clown car on the other side. I just wish some more progressive candidate(s) would jump in and push her on the economic issues so she has to tack a little more progressive in the primary season. As it stands, she could just about run on Ronald Reagan’s platform (minus the cold war) and be more progressive than whoever the Republican nominee turns out to be.
Also as a non-straight person, the Dems’ increasingly unambivalent support of equality issues matters very much to me. If it’s not THE deciding factor, it’s certainly in the top 3 things. Even if I leaned R on a lot of issues, their clear message of “we despise you and everyone like you, and we don’t want you in our party” would lose my vote.
Peale
@OzarkHillbilly: see how narcissistic she is? Even when she tries to hide, she makes it all about her. She’s been driven around in limousines for too long and doesn’t know how to do things for herself. Her face is too familiar…people are tired of it. So tired that they can’t even find her in plain sight.
ThresherK
@Iowa Old Lady: They want to self righteously keep unsullied, but they depend on the rest of us to provide herd immunity by voting for the D.
Unlike other, more alert BJers, I missed that analogy yesterday. Thanks for repeating it today.
In the 18 1/2 months before the election, I imagine it will bear repeating at least twice a week.
Paul in KY
@raven: What kind of POS shoots an armadillo?
HRA
It looks like Ohio Governor John Kasich is seriously thinking of running for president.
raven
@Paul in KY: In south Georgia? Come on.
cmm
@Paul in KY: He moved north from Florida.
Cervantes
@Betty Cracker:
Yes. If it’s any consolation — and I really don’t see why it should be — HRC isn’t the only Democrat subjected to this kind of nonsense.
OzarkHillbilly
@Paul in KY: One who doesn’t want it digging up his garden. (c’mon…)
ThresherK
@Paul in KY: Someone who doesn’t remember the first thing Ralphie did with his Red Rider BB Gun, and the ensuing near-shooting out of his eye, in “A Christmas Story”, that’s who.
gogol's wife
@Baud:
You were right the first time.
Betty Cracker
@Paul in KY: It pisses me off too because I like armadillos, but apparently they wreak havoc on gardens, so shooting them is a pretty routine thing around here. (Not in my presence, of course.)
BillinGlendaleCA
@HRA: Commenter jl may yet win the “number of clowns in the clown car” pool with his bet on 50.
Johnny B
Despite the Republicans stated desire to get rid of Obamacare and voucherize Medicare, the majority of those age 65+ will vote for whichever Republican wins that party’s nomination. See, they are concerned conservatives who worry about the nation’s fiscal future while demanding that the rest of us work and pay taxes to keep Medicare funded and non-voucherized for themselves. Oh, and “keep your government hands off my Social Security. Take it from my kids and grandkids, instead.”
cmm
@Betty Cracker: This Jersey girl first saw an armadillo running around the footpaths of the Fort Wilderness Campground at Disney World. I was in 8th grade, I think. My sister insisted that she had seen a “baby dinosaur”.
J R in WV
@danielx:
What morning paper? What State? What’s an RFRA?
All I got is I dunno what he’s talkin’ about!
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@J R in WV: At a guess, the Indy Star, Indiana, the Religious Freedom Restoration Act. (Not sure what the P is supposed to stand for.)
J R in WV
@Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism:
You’re probably right.
The “P” was “misspelled the acronym” by me who can’t remember 4 whole letters, edited to fix it. I edit everything to fix the misspelled stuff, it’s always with me.
Bubblegum Tate
@Baud:
Funny, isn’t this what was supposed to happen in Iraq? You know, flowers and candy and all that? It’s almost as though wingnuts get everything exactly wrong, and that while bombing people doesn’t endear you to them, talking to them does. Hmmm….
Tenar Darell
Taxes.
PurpleGirl
I would have changed one thing in the cartoon: Instead of calling the man in the black suit ‘Politics’, I’d have called him ‘Politician’. (I really would have called him Republican Politician…, but…)
boatboy_srq
@Betty Cracker: Because Paul, Cruz, Rubio, Walker et al are All Campaign All The Time, any pol who actually wants something remotely resembling A Normal Life must therefore be disingenuous, disinterested, unnatural and unserious. Because wanting a meal without making an event of it is even more unnatural. Being HRC while doing that just makes it worse. There are moments when I think that Conservatists really do buy the false personas their pols present as the real thing without the slightest inkling that there might be a real (and possibly different and unlikeable) person behind those facades.
mclaren
@RK:
We’ve been hearing a lot of this, especially from me. Yet HRC’s campaign announcement video was essentially perfect. lt’s hard to imagine a better campaign-launch video than the one she put together.
As others have pointed out, HRC has had a remarkably successful political career for the last 25 years. At this point we may need to start considering that the conventional wisdom has got it wrong and HRC is actually a formidable and effective campaigner who happens to rub some pundits the wrong way.
Of course, it’s early days yet. We can’t say anything substantive about HRC’s skills in a national campaign until she starts getting out on the hustings and making daily speeches and putting out policy white papers.
RK
Maybe I’m off but Hillary’s win in NY was no big feat. Her main problem, as I see it, is that she’s not likable. She may be in person, but in public she comes off as insincere, cold and imperious. If she wins, I see Bill Clinton, ultimately, as the reason why.
mclaren
@Betty Cracker:
Don’t forget Al Gore’s “earth-tone” suits. And the “debacle” of John Kerry asking for Swiss cheese instead of American cheese on his Philly cheesesteak sandwich.
Never underestimate the sheer decerebrated triviality of the American press in a presidential campaign. They make Beavis and Butthead look like the Academy of Athens by comparison.
mclaren
@RK:
Not in that video. And TV is what wins campaigns.
grandpa john
@cmm: Amazing that he accomplished that without becoming road kill, Only ones I have ever seen were south FL roadkill , but they say that they are finally migrating out of GA into our area of SC, so I may see a live one yet
grandpa john
The advent of the 24 Hr news cycle and talk radio will eventually lead to the end of civilization as we know it