Maybe there’s hope for the republic after all; via CNN:
WASHINGTON — Bernie Sanders’ nascent presidential campaign announced Friday that it had raised more than $1.5 million in its first 24 hours, a number that far outpaces what Republican presidential hopefuls posted on their first day… [M]ore than 100,000 people signed up for the campaign and 35,000 people donated money….
Bernie raised more than Marco Rubio, Rand Paul or Ted Cruz collected on their first day, which is all the more remarkable when you consider that the corporate media has spent the last two years acting as if that trio of lightweights and lunatics are serious presidential contenders while treating anyone to the left of Susan Collins as a commie crank.
The mister and I played a small part in Bernie’s surprisingly successful showing: We made our first political contribution of 2016 to Sanders’ campaign yesterday in the hope that his candidacy would drag Hillary Clinton a few centimeters leftward. Little did we guess we were droplets in a socialist cash tsunami!
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
I’m rooting for Bernie and I’ll help him, but I’m not sure how valuable this exercise is going to be. It’s pretty obvious that it’s a no hope campaign. Did he draw more money on day one than those GOP candidates did? Sure. Does he poll higher than some of the Republicans that are being treated seriously? Sure, but that doesn’t mean that Sanders ought to be treated seriously if by, “seriously,” you mean has a shot in hell. Republican support for the other candidates is badly fractured, so those polling around where Sanders is have some hope of being able to cobble together a coalition as others fall by the wayside. The same isn’t true on the Democratic side; one candidate is already polling at well over a majority. There isn’t any combination of other candidates that could drop out whose followers would switch to Sanders over Clinton, since there aren’t any other candidates who could drop out.
Considering that there is no hope of Sanders winning and there’s no way to treat his candidacy as serious if a chance to win is an essential part of that, I don’t know that anyone is going to pay enough attention to it to have any of the sort of effects people are hoping it does. He can’t force Clinton to adopt preferred policies because Clinton doesn’t need to do any shoring up. He’s really counting on a lot of free media coverage of a contested Democratic primary to get his message out and I don’t know that the media is actually going to consider this to be contested.
Kay
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym:
She’s may not think she needs shoring up. but she’s actively trying to bring them in early:
Hal
If anything, this kind of support gives Sanders a chance to promote his ideas to the American public and should help differentiate Dems from Repubs. Even if HRC isn’t a liberal icon she won’t ignore what Sanders is doing.
If there is any point of irritation it’s that the media will portray this as a HUGE RIFT IN THE DEMOCRATIC PARTY and then talk about how that gives an opening to Rubio or some other loser with no real chance of winning. Kind of like we heard in 2008 that all of these women would absolutely not be voting for Obama, and maybe would swing to McCain because of Palin.
Kay
Everyone knows, but just to give a general sense of what he’s up against:
Two issues- public school privatization and ending pensions, one state, one donation, 5 million.
John Arnold was an ENRON trader and the head of the PAC worked for Emanuel’s campaign in 2002 and now his job is selling red light cameras to cities.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@Kay: I don’t think she’s shoring up anything. She senses where a good place to run is and is heading there. I don’t think Sanders entering the race, or the threat thereof, has much to do with it.
Punchy
Could this be rat-fucking money? It seems prudent for rich repubs to fund Bernie just enough to make Clinton uneasy. To make it harder for her. A proxy challenger much farther to the left of her hoping she’ll adopt some of his (what the GOP thinks is non-mainstream) leftie ideas…
Cervantes
@Kay:
You’re right: whatever Sanders achieves is going to take money, and a lot of it.
Many small donations are great. Really, in the world we inhabit, nothing is better for the soul of a progressive campaign.
Meanwhile, there are 500-600 billionaires in the U.S. at the moment. We know many of them will oppose. Will any of them help?
Cervantes
@Punchy:
One problem with your thesis, I think, is that many of Bernie’s ideas appeal to people who get to hear about them.
Kay
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym:
Well, there’s really two parts, right? There’s the meeting with Party or issue leaders on various things and there’s The Campaign- the public part versus Sanders. When the ’08 primary in Ohio started at the state convention the “pitch” from Clinton supporters was one of her strengths is persuading the leaders of the various groups within the Democratic Party. They said she was good at that. I suspect she might be good at that- it seems to fit her personality and general approach. What I think the Sander’s candidacy does is make those groups within the Party more visible to the general public- people who are not as engaged. In a way he takes what would have been a push that was only visible to people who follow this closely “public” and I think that does put more pressure on her. Incidentally, I think it’s smart for her to reach out to them. They believe there is genuine energy around income inequality/wage stagnation/economic security and I do too. I think they’re right.
greennotGreen
I donated to Bernie also, although I have no doubt Hillary will be the nominee, and I will support her. But Bernie can drive the conversation to the left which will, I hope, 1) plant some ideas in the vacant heads of some of our citizens, and 2) show how moderate Hillary is by comparison which might help her in the general.
Kay
@Cervantes:
Are there really 500 to 600? I had no idea. I would have said “50”. Sanders first hurdle was the stop them from dismissing him immediately, and I think he cleared that.
I saw centrist, moderate Ted Cruz is already making Sanders out to be an “extremist”. What a joke.
Waldo
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: Can’t argue with any of that. One thing I’d add: media antipathy for HRC will work in Bernie’s favor. They will cover it like he’s got a real shot, even if he doesn’t — ’cause what else are they going to do? If that moves the needle even a little, I’m good with that.
NotMax
@Kay
No doubt that to Cruz, Ike was an extremist.
Also too, Lincoln.
Germy Shoemangler
I predicted they (villagers) would ignore his policies and opinions and instead try to make him look like a silly old man.
So Friday morning at 7:00 I put on the Charlie Rose CBS show, and they begin with “your world in 60 seconds” with a quick montage of earthquakes, riots, funny teevee people and…. Bernie Sanders.
The reporter said “before Bernie got into politics, he had a long history as a folk performer [photo of Sanders in front of a microphone circa 1990]. Cut to Current-Day Bernie being asked to sing a song. “Wait a minute” he says. “It’ll take me a moment to get into the groove.” Then he starts moving his arms like a rapper.
Then they quickly cut away to the next segment. No discussion of his ideas. Just an old man waving his arms. “Look, he says he can sing!”
They turn him into a caricature. “Nothing to see here, just an eccentric old socialist fool who thinks he has a chance. An entertainer, really.”
magurakurin
I don’t have any problem with Sanders getting in the race. It’s a free country and a democracy and anyone who wants to has the right and should be able to run. I look forward to a possible debate with Clinton as well because I think both of them will present well-reasoned and compelling arguments on various points and I believe that there won’t be any mud slinging or super inane bullshit of the kind that we will see from the GOP debates. I also feel I’m probably to the left of Sanders in political terms and agree with most of everything he stands for. I’d probably just take things further. But I won’t be sending him any money and I won’t vote for him if I get the chance (I don’t think it will get that far.)
There are a number of reasons, but the main one is I don’t believe he would win the general election. Now, I am more than willing to admit that I could be wrong about that, but it is what I believe. And losing the general is too,too terrible to imagine. Clinton might lose as well, but going with odds…she’s my pick for sure. My biggest issue with Clinton is her age, so Sanders being even older is another point against him for me.
But that being said, one thing that people who do support him need to stop doing is calling him a “socialist.” He is not a socialist. Those who think he is, please tell me… which major industries is he planning to nationalize after he wins? He calls himself democratic socialist, which itself is a fairly vague and ill-defined term. With the label of socialist though, he really doesn’t have a chance to win the general election. Decades and decades of anti-Soviet propaganda still lingers deeply in a lot of the American psyche. Anyone who is serious about getting Sanders elected would from now and hereafter only ever refer to him as a Democrat. The New Republic has a little piece with a similar opinion.
Baud
That’s impressive. Makes you wonder the extent to which direct fundraising has become passe in GOP circles.
Cervantes
@Kay:
My count, imprecise because life is.
Plus there are roughly 200 in China alone, and 100 each in India, Russia, and Germany — all in U.S. dollars.
Baud
@magurakurin:
“Socialism” doesn’t mean anything in this country anymore. It’s now just a badge — either of honor or of shame, depending on one’s political outlook.
Matt McIrvin
Democrats in disarray! This is excellent news for McCain!
Kay
@magurakurin:
I read a piece on him yesterday that said he runs really positive campaigns. That fits with what we’ve heard from him in the Senate, I think. Every time I’ve heard him it’s been 100% issues.
I think his challenge will be not making this about a split in the Democratic Party but instead about the country as a whole, but that’s the challenge of every insurgent candidate and it applies to the GOP field too. . He’s aware of that because he says it in every interview, “this is not about Hillary Clinton”.
Kay
In other news I heard yesterday that Mormons have this big beef with Mike Huckabee which goes back to the historic competition between Southern Baptists and Mormons. They’re rivals.
I had no idea any of this conflict existed, if indeed it’s true :)
Betty Cracker
@Kay: That’s my impression too. He won’t win the nomination, but he’ll put issues like wealth inequality and money in politics front in center. That’s important.
Baud
@magurakurin:
Except he’s not and doesn’t plan on being a Democrat.
NotMax
@Kay
Well, isn’t that special.
Who will he be listed as running against on the primary ballots? Unless he works to create enough policy daylight between himself and her to define and present himself as the better choice, it’s a pipe dream.
Baud
KATE MIDDLETON HAD A GIRL PRINCESS!!!!
BillinGlendaleCA
@Kay: Being raised in a Baptist(American not Southern) household, Mormons were considered heretics at best, idolaters at worst.
NotMax
@Baud
There’s another type of princess?
Long shot, but will lay down two bits that they name her Shaniqua.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: I used to watch a lot of Catholic programming (I’m not Catholic), and they feel the same way.
Betty Cracker
@Baud: I wish she had been born first. She might have been able to take over directly from QE2 since the women in that family tend toward immortality.
the Conster
One of the first things I heard Bernie say about the media coverage of the Clinton Foundation, was about the Kochs flat out buying the GOP candidate. If nothing else, one of the things he’ll do is shine a light on the “both sides” nonsense.
Kay
@Betty Cracker:
I felt like I knew Clinton would do the “state and issue” leader thing with liberals because that’s sort of the Clinton “brand”, that’s a plus to them, they know everyone in the entire political world and they rely a lot on relationships- they believe in that personal approach to political wrangling- but she’ll have much less control over the “public debate” with Sanders in. She won’t be able to run it like she can meetings and phone calls. which I think is a good thing.
magurakurin
Then he really has no chance at all. I still welcome hearing his speeches and a possible debate, but it isn’t a genuinely serious run if the candidate running to represent the Democratic Party doesn’t want to change his own affiliation. And apparently, yes, he has no plans to official become a member of the party he is seeking the nomination of.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
No kidding. British royalty is like the Supreme Court, where the woman far outshine the dudes.
NotMax
@NotMax
Ought to point out that that was an oblique reference to Hyperdrive.
Kay
@BillinGlendaleCA:
Thanks. I didn’t know.
I was surprised that they feel Huckabee has almost goaded them (apparently) questioning whether they’re Christians, because I think he’s a good politician. I guess the religous rivalry trumped his ambition. I didn’t think anything could do that :)
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Oddly enough, I was in a Mormon sponsored Boy Scout troop in my early teens. My mother was quite concerned.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Kay: You do have to remember that Huckster is a Preacher Man.
NotMax
@BillinGlendaleCA
That raises a question:
If there were a Mormon-sponsored Girl Scout troop, would 10% of the cookie proceeds be required to go to the church?
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
About the Mormons or the Boy Scouts?
gf120581
Nice to see folks here actually have some sensibility on Bernie’s chances, unlike some people at some other places I check out (cough, Daily Kos, cough).
And as much as I’d like to say Bernie has a much better chance then any of the Three Senate Stooges or others on that side, I can’t because the GOP field is so crowded and so fluid that one could slip through. Bernie, however, is up against one other candidate who has consolidated overwhelming support and resources. Barring a miracle, he doesn’t have a prayer.
His looks are not going to help him either. He looks like an eccentric college professor or mad scientist. You half expect him to announce he’s invented Flubber or say you have to come with him because “your kids, something’s got to be done about your kids!”
OzarkHillbilly
Nigerian army frees hundreds more women and girls from Boko Haram
Nigerian troops have freed another 234 women and children from Boko Haram’s stronghold in the Sambisa forest, the military said.
The defence headquarters said the hostages were rescued on Thursday through the Kawuri and Konduga end of the forest.
About 500 women and children have already been rescued in the past few days.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: The Mormons, she was afraid I’d be indoctrinated.
@NotMax: The Mormons don’t have Girl Scouts, they’re a Commie organization, they have Beehives.
Cervantes
@Germy Shoemangler:
You know, there’s an album out there. It has five songs on it. Not too many copies were ever made.
NotMax
@BillinGlendaleCA
Remember Huckabee’s “vote for Obama and you will burn eternally in Hell” ad from 2012?
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly: I heard about that. Amazing and wonderful news.
Baud
@NotMax: You sure that wasn’t, like, yesterday?
BillinGlendaleCA
@NotMax: Wait, “Conception to Natural Death”? Huckster’s against the death penalty?
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA: Nah, he considers the death penalty 100% natural.
the Conster
@gf120581:
I think he has no fucks left to give, and he’s doing this knowing full well the likelihood of him ever being president approaches zero. In the meantime, he’s buying a bigger soapbox, and that alone is worth contributing to.
NotMax
@gf120581
Reminiscent of Christopher Lloyd’s character in Back To the Future.
Kay
@NotMax:
In Huckabee’s announcement, he says he won’t touch SoSec or Medicare. I think it’s generally good for Democrats if the “populist” in the GOP enters.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: Oh, I was “concerned” about that. On that note, I shall retire to the bed chamber.
NotMax
@Kay
Mm hm.
As in won’t touch it with a ten-foot
polecross.As in let Congress do the dirty work and then kowtow to “the will of the American people.”
Betty Cracker
Gail Collins of the NYT on Bernie Sanders:
Thank you, Ms. Collins.
Germy Shoemangler
Headline:
Lindsey Graham Tells South Carolina He’s Ready for a Presidential Bid
Cervantes
@magurakurin:
Does it bother you that the Democratic Party does not seem to mind as much as you do?
WereBear
I think it has reached the point where people who don’t usually pay attention are now doing so.
NotMax
@Germy Shoemangler
Good news for John Sidney McCain II!
NotMaxn
@NotMax
Typo, and no edit function. Corrected:
Good news for John Sidney McCain III!
Germy Shoemangler
@NotMax: I’m trying to imagine a Graham presidency.
I’m drawing a blank.
Germy Shoemangler
Sanders entering the race… Does this mean all the network Sunday morning shows and all the cable talk shows will HAVE to invite Sanders to speak? They’ll have no excuse to ignore him?
NotMax
@Germy Shoemangler
Think Millard Fillmore, but without the charisma.
:)
NotMax
@Germy Shoemangler
Yup, just as they did with Mike Gravel.
:)
OzarkHillbilly
@Baud: I think of the families, now waiting for news of their daughters, mothers, wives, and the joy that will come with the news that she was among the rescued, or the crushing despair that will surely follow the disappointment when learning she wasn’t.
Not sure I could survive that.
WereBear
@magurakurin: I don’t see it that way.
A huge chunk of the potential electorate (who will vote if you get them riled up) wouldn’t know a socialist from an organic farmer. They were born in the ’70’s and 80’s and only vaguely know Berlin once had a “wall” of some kind.
When they hear socialist ideas they usually think they are fine ideas.
Yes, there’s another chunk who get palpitations at the word. And those people vote Republican even if the party is running a lizard man from Gorn.
Kropadope
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym:
The 2016 election itself should be called the “no hope campaign.”
Suzanne
@NotMax: “Mormon-sponsored Girl Scout troop”.
Hahaha, good one.
You should take that act on the road.
Baud
@WereBear:
People aren’t opposed to “socialist” ideas. They are opposed to “socialist” ideas that apply equally to those people.
Baud
@Cervantes: The “Democratic Party” isn’t a single person.
Baud
@OzarkHillbilly: It’s tough out there. There is a reason #FirstWorldProblems is a thing.
NotMax
@Suzanne
Will be at Club Laff ‘n’ Quaff in Burnt Armpit, Idaho all next week.
;)
Cervantes
@gf120581:
How do you explain his numerous election victories in the Green Mountain State? Are Vermonters more susceptible than the country as a whole to the charms of eccentric college professors and mad scientists?
Cervantes
@Baud:
So what? Who said otherwise?
The point is that the Party has rules and its rules are not preventing, and as far as I can tell will not be held to prevent, Sanders from doing what he intends to do.
Patrick
@Betty Cracker:
Good Heavens! Couldn’t they make this argument about anything then?
It is just amusing that these folks who are so horrified about sharia law (whatever that is), has not concern whatsoever about Christian overreach such as what we saw in Indiana (just as an example), or all the abortion clinic protesters.
Lurking Canadian
@Betty Cracker: It sounds like Gail Collins may also have run out of fucks to give.
Baud
@Cervantes: The comment you were responding to was talking about Bernie’s chances, not his legal right to do what he is doing.
Suzanne
@NotMax: LOLOLOL. The Girl Scouts, unlike the Boy Scouts, are avowedly secular. They also encourage girls to think for themselves, gain knowledge past the MRS degree, and to view themselves as valuable in their own right—none of this helpmeet bullshit the Mormons love.
Cervantes
@Betty Cracker:
I liked the part you excerpted.
I did wonder about her use of the verb “yell.”
Kay
@WereBear:
Agree. We should have a name for our theory. The Jimmy Carter Fallacy. That was so funny in ’08.
The young people here were asking the elders “why do they hate Jimmy Carter, why?”
You have to pull up a chair and settle in for a long fable :)
Suzanne
I hope the new princess is a badass. I hope she gets her mother’s looks, too.
I can’t sleep. It’s hot.
Cervantes
@Baud:
No.
Look again, if you will, at the part that I quoted and responded to.
Matt McIrvin
@WereBear: Republicans scoured away the Red Scare/Cold War-era negative connotations of the word “socialist” by using it to refer to anything they disagreed with. Young people today hear the word and just think of it as a term Republicans use to attack liberals.
Kay
@WereBear:
It’s kind of nice how they come to it so clean and open. My youngest really likes Obama. He still ‘checks” his opinions with me, which I know will end here shortly- my absolute credibility with him won’t last because it doesn’t – but he asked me “do you like Hillary”?
It’s such a long answer! We have all this history. I felt like saying “she’s likeable enough!”
Kropadope
@WereBear: These days “socialist” is mostly just a political buzzword used to scare people who get their news from the TV and don’t know any better, See also: amnesty, liberal, government, thug, Capitol, and woman. Words designed to shore up these people’s confidence: leader, conservative, capital (and all forms thereof), police, Rombot 2016, and man.
True, all these words have real life meanings, but meaning is impossible to reclaim from words in the political sphere.
ETA: Limbaugh drew all the wrong lessons from Orwell.
Baud
@Cervantes:
Here it is:
The second sentence is a true statement of fact that should be noncontroversial. The “genuinely serious run” refers to whether Bernie’s campaign has even a remote chance of getting the nomination of the Democratic Party without being a Democrat. Nothing in the comment says anything about whether or not Bernie qualifies to be on the Democratic primary ballot as an independent.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@greennotGreen: I visited Bernie’s web page but saw “Coming 5/26/2015” and figured they’d want to make a big splash then, so I didn’t donate.
It seems a bit weird for him to announce on one day and then do the “Official Announcement” almost a month later. I don’t understand the thinking. But I’m sure they’ve got their reasons.
I’m not as pessimistic as TTP. Bernie talking about and debating his issues with HRC is a good thing, for her and for the issues we care about.
Best of luck to him.
Cheers,
Scott.
Matt McIrvin
@Kay: I do have to remind myself of the limits of historical inevitability. Young people of all sorts turned out to vote for Obama in 2008… but by 2012, most of the white ones had gone back to the Republicans. Young people still supported Obama by a considerable margin, but only because they weren’t as white as the rest of the country.
That, to me, is ominous. Not because white votes are the only legitimate ones or will be a controlling majority, but because it implies that US politics will continue to be strongly racially polarized well into the future. And when parties become racialized and the old majority realizes they’re losing power… they don’t go down peacefully.
mai naem mobile
The Koch.brothers.could.literally spend.1.5M bucks daily wiping their asses and.not miss.it.
Kropadope
@Baud:
That said, this issue may actually be determined state by state. For example, there is a question whether he qualifies for the NH ballot.
JMG
Clinton has her unbeatable lead because 1. Everybody in America knows who she is in a nation with a political IQ of 12, and 2. Even the most left-leaning of Democrats may have misgivings about her, but not actual “I can’t vote for her” objections. Sanders is running for the perfectly valid and honorable reason of advancing the ideas and causes he supports. I’m pretty sure Ms. Cracker and all his other donors know that and wish to support that goal. They’re not angling for ambassadorships.
WereBear
@Baud: Yes, it’s a pattern. Women have to actually be extra good at what they do, while the men are only required to show up.
NotMax
@mai naem mobile
Puh-leeze. They employ peons to do the wiping.
With Quilted Northern, one of their brands.
Baud
@Kropadope:
I know. I’m not sure what each state law is, but I’ll assume Bernie’s people have looked into it.
And if he gets to the point where he is within striking distance of the nomination, I’d also be concerned about the possibility that the general election ballot had a Republican candidate and no Democratic candidate. Does he get to be listed as the Democratic candidate simply by virtue of winning the nomination, if he’s not himself a Democrat? I don’t know the answer to that.
ETA: And all those questions arise even assuming an honest implementation of election laws. In GOP run states, that is not a safe assumption.
Kropadope
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
The pace of filing paperwork may not always dovetail with your planned public events. This is especially true when the entire Democratic Party electoral structure, quite helpful with coordination, is busy elsewhere.
@mai naem mobile:
I’d be applying for a job emptying their cesspool right now if it weren’t for the far-more-experienced shit shovelers auditioning for the same position in the Republican primary.
gf120581
@Cervantes: I said he looks like that. I didn’t say he is that. But that’s what the media will portray him as.
His successes in Vermont do no serve as a good indication of national success. Vermont is a small state and Bernie’s success there is largely based on people knowing him personally on a candidate to voter basis. National is a completely different story.
Kropadope
@JMG:
How sure are you?
@Baud:
There has to be a way of addressing this. The Democratic Party is one of the three most powerful political entities in the US. There’s no way its chosen nominee will not be presented as the Democratic nominee on ballots. even if there are legal roadblocks, I’m sure they’ll be able to work through them.
One way they could go would be for multiple partisan listings like they do in coalition scenarios; such as Democratic-Farmer-Labor, Green-Rainbow, Republican-Toolboxes of American, and (my personal favorite) Batman-Superman. Perhaps he could be listed as Democrat(ic)-Independent or, better still, reverse that.
OzarkHillbilly
Two Arctic ice researchers presumed drowned after unseasonably high temperatures
Police have called off the search for two Dutch scientists. Unusually thin ice likely played a role in their presumed death in the Canadian Arctic this week
At the end of April. But global warming is a hoax.
Kropadope
@gf120581:
Forgive me, I fail to see the problem here.
NotMax
Reminded by some of the above that the English monarchy for centuries utilized the much coveted position of Groom of the Stool.
Baud
@Kropadope:
We’ll take it all the way to the Supreme Court if we have to!
oh, wait….
OzarkHillbilly
@Kropadope:
Ted Cruz sure, as in any Dem knows that any Dem is far better than anyone from a party that has Ted Cruz as an esteemed member.
WereBear
Well, yes, she’s actually had a long career in politics, and to me it traces the arc of women’s liberation as well. At first she could only be various First Ladies, then she tries health care reform and it was a disaster (and it’s not all her fault by any means) and now she’s got a sense of what works and what doesn’t and she can’t do anything about her past and she’s making good moves now, running for President on her own hook, this time (I hope.)
How is that different from a man’s arc? She seems to have learned and grown and is positioning herself in ways I dreamed she would.
We’re all about where we come from. Biden himself votes with bankers more than I’d like because he’s from Delaware. Doesn’t mean he’s not doing as much good as he can. Etc.
So yes, dammit, I’ve come to think. SHE’S MORE THAN GOOD ENOUGH.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kropadope: Especially considering the fact that so many of their candidates are mad scientists (in the “laboratories of democracy”).
Betty Cracker
@JMG: I would be the most terrible ambassador ever. Well, besides John Bolton.
@Matt McIrvin: There was definitely some wishful thinking involved in the “post-racial youth” gushing after 2008. That said, in my two score-plus years on the planet, I’ve seen real progress on that front with my own eyes among my fellow crackers, and I grew up down the road from a little ghost town called “Rosewood.” The arc of the moral universe is long, etc.
germy shoemangler
@Kropadope:
Don’t forget “Welfare”
NotMax
@Betty Cracker
Or April Glaspie.
Kropadope
@OzarkHillbilly: Most of the left-inclined people I know are currently adamant they won’t vote for her. I, myself, have moved from “probably not” to “wait-and-see, but probably not.” I know precisely one person IRL who is excited about voting for Hillary and ten times as many who are convinced she is the most wicked creature to walk the earth. Not a representative sample, I know, but more or less claimed all and “all” is pretty easy to disprove.
Kropadope
@germy shoemangler: Dude, I could sit here typing all the words that have been ruined by our public discourse, but I really don’t have time to type half the dictionary. I know I’m a beast at data entry, but it would still take a long-ass-time and then FYWP will eat it.
WereBear
Indeed. My own (Florida) youth was spent being locked in our homerooms waiting for delivery of lunches in styrofoam. The cafeteria was permanently closed because of riots.
What I see is the majority of kids and teens mingling freely in any circumstances not already poisoned by fearful and spiteful actions of adults.
And college mellows a lot of that out.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@OzarkHillbilly:
Anyone want to take odds on Republicans trying to ban any aid monies from being used for anortoon services? After all, the best possible thing for girls and young women who have been kidnapped, brutalized, and repeatedly raped is for them to be forced to raise any resulting babies so they can constantly be reminded of their traumatic experiences.
Kropadope
@Betty Cracker:
Most of my fellow 30ish people are no more post-racial than our parents. The ones who are were more likely to engage politically at a younger age (and even among them, post-racial is probably still to charitable a word). The ones who didn’t engage are already showing signs of the
MSMright wing propaganda machine settling in. Basically, they didn’t care until they decided they hate Democrats and everything Democrats stand for, updated daily.I think the best to hope for is benign racial consciousness.
SiubhanDuinne
@Baud:
A FEMALE girl princess????
WereBear
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): sadly, I was thinking along those lines…
WereBear
@Kropadope: I think it depends on where you live. Here, in a reddish pocket of a deep blue state — I see considerable progress.
JMG
@Kropadope: I’m willing to bet that the number of Democrats who don’t vote for her in November is less than 1 percent of the electorate and maybe half that. It’s easy to say “never” when the election is 18 months away — and most of all, when there’s no Republican nominee for her to be compared to.
OzarkHillbilly
@Kropadope:
Really? Most of the left inclined people you know are complete idiots? I don’t like Hillary. So what? I am not voting for “Best Friend”, I am voting for President. I got a lot of respect for Hillary and know that she is not afraid to fight (I just hope it is for the things I think are worth fighting for)(and it is a lot of times) so given a choice between her or some Koch sucking Republican sycophant….
Really, is that even a choice?
Baud
@JMG:
Yeah, there’s always some group of people who think they are doing the world a favor by not supporting the Democratic nominee. Obama had his PUMAs, Gore had his Naderites, and so on. Nothing you can do except try to give our nominee enough cushion so that it doesn’t become an issue (like 2000).
Kropadope
@WereBear:
Funny, that’s exactly how I would describe the area I live in.
There is no post-racial. Race isn’t a useful construct for classifying people. To the extent that it exists, however, even the most integration-happy, let’s-all-get-along types are cognizant of racial differences, particularly cultural ones and will talk about these things, often in very frank terms.
I don’t necessarily think this is a bad thing, though. Part of the process of integration is accepting people for who they are, which requires seeing people for who they are. Different people have different expectations. Sometimes those come into conflict. We can’t just wave that away. What we can try to do is understand and to try to get along with the people in our daily lives.
Ramalama
On the day the news broke – the announcement that Bernie was going to make an announcement, my elderly ailing mother told my brother and me: “I have to tell you something. I just heard about five minutes ago. I don’t know if it’s true…” We’re thinking something bad’s happened, when it turns out she was so beside herself with glee about Bernie jumping into the race that she had to tamp it down a bit or her body would go off like a bottle rocket.
I went on reddit then, too, and it seems that reddit broke Bernie’s site – it couldn’t handle the volume of people trying to donate to his campaign.
I’m excited. But I recall how liberal Hillary was way back when and she got eviscerated. Don’t you guys recall how hated she was by so many people so instantly? I know Bernie’s a different animal entirely, but he’s human. We are terrible to people running for office.
Baud
@Ramalama: Bernie would be hated too if he were the nominee. I don’t think the haters bother with him right now because no one thinks his winning is likely, and the haters would prefer to use him to go after Hillary.
Kropadope
@OzarkHillbilly: @OzarkHillbilly: Hillary, Warrior Princess, and Martin O’Malley, who introduced zero-tolerance NYC style policing to Baltimoreare cancers on the Democratic Party and if you let them grow, the Democrats soon won’t be any more worth voting for than the Republicans.
Think of them as coalition candidates, Hillary’s in the Democratic-Tough But Dumb On Crime coalition.
Betty Cracker
@Kropadope: I guess it depends on how you define “progress.” I don’t think people are or necessarily will ever become “post-racial” to the degree that they won’t be aware of so-called “racial” differences. But during my lifetime, people have definitely become more likely to have friends, neighbors, colleagues, etc., across racial boundaries and less likely to be swayed by racial factors when voting. Obama could not have carried Florida twice when I was a kid, no fucking way.
Peale
@JMG: yes. Maybe. How did Scott Brown get elected? I know, we’re supposed to rely on presidential voters looking different from mid term voters, but how sure can we be about that.
Baud
@Peale: Special election against Martha Coakley.
Germy Shoemangler
Saw this comment on Charles Pierce’s blog:
Cervantes
@SiubhanDuinne:
And on the distaff side, too.
Brachiator
@Punchy: If Republicans are stupid enough to fund good Democrats I say bring it on. It’s early in the campaign see no problems with Sanders testing the waters and developing a platform to give his ideas a national hearing.
Kropadope
@Baud:
I think we need to accept that people don’t think along pure partisan lines. Right now we have two parties divided by issues that, when compared directly, have little to do with one another.
I’d rather vote for someone who I think is dealing with the public honestly than someone who checks the most boxes on the “things I like” list. No matter how many boxes someone checks, by the way, some things are just impossible to get past. I can’t see myself supporting someone inclined to bomb foreigners who have done us no harm or to exacerbate the militarization of the American police force. Sorry.
Baud
@Kropadope:
Vote for whoever the hell you want, or don’t vote at all if you so choose. You owe me nothing.
Kropadope
@Betty Cracker:
Perhaps part of the issue where I don’t really see much recent progress on racial relations is that all these things were completely normal for me growing up.
Tommy
I recall back in grad school. LSU. I went door-to-door for Jerry Brown. A “Yankee” campaigning for Jerry. Oh those were the times …..
Doing that I met Bert. He was from Vermont. Mom a big wig in state politics, OK at the time she was the Majority leader in the House.
I went with him a few times back to Brattleboro. I always felt the state and that city was the “perfect Liberal place.” Like “Post Card” liberal in such a good way. I come from a pretty Blue state and even a bluer district, but my gosh Brattleboro.
I love the politics of Bernie Sanders. But I also said the above, because I think if you want to run for office you ought to be able to point and say “look at that shit we’re doing where I live, pretty cool isn’t it.”
You go Bernie!
Germy Shoemangler
@Cervantes:
The average voters who don’t spend time on progressive blogs, who get news from the networks or radio…. will Bernie’s ideas reach them? I feel like the media will construct a firewall around him and make it all about personality and age.
Kropadope
@Baud: I’m not saying that you do, but too few people here understand that “because she’s a Democrat” is a weak-ass argument for why to vote for someone.
ETA: even more so once you’re trying to convince people outside the base.
Germy Shoemangler
@Kropadope: Half of the country will vote for Jeb or Marco or even Lindsey Graham (if it comes to that) “because he’s a republican.”
Baud
@Kropadope:
You think it’s weak because you see “Democrat” as just a label, as opposed to a set of ideas and a coalition of people who roughly share them.
WereBear
In a world where you are shopping for a candidate who represents YOU, like choosing between a trench coat and a pea coat — that’s a theory.
Here in the real world, a Democrat is going to be a better outcome than a Republican.
Full. Stop.
Belafon
Hillary’s already sounding rather left anyway. I think Sanders will force her to get more specific on her plans. Maybe all of this will also force all of the other Democrats – the House and Senate members, as well as state Democrats – to talk populism and realize that it’s no worse than their cowering now, and that in some cases it will help.
We do have to remember there’s the rest of the world, though.
Roger Moore
@Germy Shoemangler:
The media’s problem is that they have two competing objectives: to play up the horse race aspect of the campaign, and to bury Sanders’s ideas. They’re going to have a very hard time doing both at the same time.
Kropadope
@Germy Shoemangler: And those people are idiots.
@Baud:
If you have anything vested in that set of ideas, you will not vote for Hillary Clinton. Hillary Clinton’s record, for her decades in public life, has accomplished nothing to help anyone, but plenty harm (see millions of Iraqis). She hasn’t even done anything but harm for Democrats specifically and I don’t see that changing.
Belafon
@WereBear: To continue your analogy, in the real world, when the temperature drops suddenly (as my wife had to do when she went to Iowa a couple of weeks ago to see our oldest and the morning temperature was quite a bit different than here in Texas), you buy from the selection of coats you have.
WereBear
@Roger Moore: And then there’s the fact that younger people tend to ignore the Village. They prefer Reddit, social media, and the like.
I certainly cannot argue with them about that.
J R in WV
Guys, given that FYWP is central to Balloon-Juice, I always use a tiny editor to compose any post longer than a couple of sentences, lest FYWP steal all my mad-genius words away from us.
Then I cut and paste and post. You can even use your own dictionary to spel check your words in the little edit box. (sic ;-{ )
Belafon
@Kropadope: Sanders was one of the senators that voted against closing Gitmo. How does that fit into your worldview?
Speaking of which, what do we know about Sander’s foreign policy?
Kropadope
@WereBear:
When a party elects a president, that president has a very strong effect on the culture of the party. If your goal is to set the Democrats on a path to being truly as bad as the Republicans, vote for Hillary. It’s like putting up a sign, “grifters, liars, and warmongers welcome.”
Tommy
@Baud:
Exactly. I am not a huge fan of Hillary. I disagree with her on many things. But often that is once we agree water is wet and then start to debate how to keep it that way. The Republicans are so far off the rails at this point we can’t even agree water is wet.
Democrat is a label, but it is also a way you can determine at some level the principals a politician holds.
Baud
@Kropadope:
My ideas are promoted by supporting Hillary if she is the nominee.
Mike J
I will not vote in a Democratic Party primary for any candidate that isn’t a member of the Democratic Party.
If you want to claim to be too pure to associate with people like me, fuck you.
WereBear
@Kropadope: If President Obama wants to run for a third term, he has my full support.
Don’t you see that he has already changed the playing field? That Hillary Clinton has actually learned from him? And is emulating him?
She’s smart enough to see that. And I’m smart enough to vote for that.
Kropadope
@Belafon: I’d like to hear him talk about why before making a decision on that. I’d rather vote for someone who honestly came by opinions that disagree with mine than a liar who’s purportedly on my side.
Kay
@WereBear:
Hillary looks like my mother in law- his grandmother. My mother in law is older but Clinton really does resemble her.
If she wins, his entire personal experience (when he was aware) of US Presidents thus far in his life will be an African American man and a person who looks like his grandmother :)
Baud
@Tommy:
Juicer is a label too. Nothing wrong with labels.
Kropadope
@WereBear:
After all those years of not learning? Sorry if I’m not super quick to buy that. She’s not a learner, she’s a re-positioner, a weather vane.
ETA: She has a long record of being susceptible to right-wing PC “tough on whatever” issues and being influenced by our abysmally dishonest MSM. She’s sounds good now, because she knows that’s what she needs to do to get elected, but after she gets elected all bets are off.
karen marie
@NotMax: One of the best shows ever. I love Nick Frost and Miranda Hart. Have you seen her show “Miranda Hart”? It’s on Hulu. Funny stuff.
Germy Shoemangler
Headline:
D.L. Hughley tells Bill Maher: You’ll never see a #BlackLivesMatter t-shirt at a GOP convention
LWA (Liberal With Attitude)
What makes Bernie so important is if nothing else, to elevate the brand awareness of “Soshulism”.
That word, so long a boogeyman in America, needs to be elevated, revived, and have everyone discussing it.
Yes, I know he isn’t actually proposing some Leninst platform, but to have real lefist ideas in 2015 America- (pale as they are compared to the real thing!)- is important and needed.
Minimum wage, workplace safety, the struggle for control of the banks- these are all things that IMO are very popular with Teh Peeples, while rabidly opposed by the Village.
And who the hell knows, if Bernie catches fire, whose to say he can’t win?
The Village did their damndest to brand Obama as a Soshulist, and people voted for him anyway.
WereBear
@Kay: Now that’s a New World Order I can get behind :)
WereBear
@Kropadope: In any election, we voters have two choices to vote FOR or AGAINST. That’s a structural two-party system the founders baked in.
The third choice, because people think they have to vote for a position instead of a direction, is to NOT vote. And Republicans have spent lots of dollars on people to scream at their voters that they must vote or their world will end.
And they are right. That’s why they have held on to power so ridiculously long.
Tommy
@Kay:
I had not thought of something like that ….
I don’t have kids. Just a wonderful niece. Katie is 6. If Hillary is elected she’ll know nothing but what you said above. Two terms, until she is like 16. I had Carter, Reagan, Bush I.
I’d take Obama and Hillary for her over that ….
Cacti
@Kropadope:
Hillary has not posted less than an 80% favorability rating with self-described Democrats in national polling.
If that number starts to budge in a significant way, then I’ll believe she faces a credible challenge to her chances at the Dem nomination.
Betty Cracker
@Mike J: I don’t think I suggested anything of the sort, but okay, Mr. Crabbypants. ;-)
Cacti
Also too, the other day on “Democratic Underground” they ran a non-scientific in-house poll of Clinton vs. Sanders, that ended up running about 90% to 10% for Bernie.
I think a lot of lefty blogs/websites don’t realize how left fringe they are at times.
Brachiator
@WereBear: How is that different from a man’s arc? You say that Hilary has had a long career in politics, but this involves a major addendum. She was not even a back bencher, but at best an observer and advisor to her husband’s political career. Until recently she had never been elected on her own, never independently run a political campaign, never had to be in the front seat of politics.
And in some ways, we were lucky that her attempt to get health care reform going ended badly. I know a lot of people were giddy in love with the idea of First Lady Clinton being involved with high level federal policy, but the bottom line is that being First Lady is nothing more than a ceremonial and courtesy position. It is insane to put a person who is not elected and not vetted by Congressional approval into any top federal position. Was Bill Clinton going to fire her if she screwed up or defied him.
And Hillary herself tried to further push the phony idea that mere proximity to the Oval Office somehow gave her tenure by suggesting that she somehow was co-president in training or apprentice president during her husband’s term.
Yeah, her position as a leader’s spouse gave her access and advantage, but this a unique insider advantage. And it is not always a different woman’s arc, but a spousal arc. We may see more of this as more women run whose husbands are not politicians, as more married gay political figures achieve high office and as divorced politicians with companions run, as we see in New York with Cuomo.
That said, Hillary has done much to establish her credentials independent of her husband and is a credible candidate, but her attempts to imply that she was driving the political car when she was just along for the ride, has to be viewed in a larger contest, especially when you compare her to other politicians who ran for office and directly put themselves in front of voters.
Baud
@Cacti:
The party left me!
Cervantes
@Belafon:
Do you remember his rationale for that vote?
Cervantes
@Mike J:
Wait — you need your candidate to put on a label and you think someone else is going to assert their purity over yours? I’m not sure I follow.
WereBear
I also see Hilary through a feminist lens. The world can look very different then.
On a sideways-pertinent topic, I just finished a new post that speaks to how women truly live in a different world:
Human sacrifice in modern times
Hillary was an advisor/partner/voice to Bill — more than Pat Nixon could or dreamed of being. Dr. Howard Dean’s wife is openly not involved in politics.
But Hillary always was.
cahuenga
How about we drop the chin-stroking wisened elder “he can’t do it” crap and help make this happen.
Doug R
@Tissue Thin Pseudonym: He does give Hillary cover to wiggle left once he shows how popular those positions are. Hillary (and Bill)’s campaign style has always been about how left they can go without scaring the mythical middle of the road “undecided” voter- Barack showed her that it’s OK to lean more left and Bernie can move the ball a few more yards.
Brachiator
By the way, something on Obama and the white vote,
The larger problem for the Republicans in 2012 was Romney’s dismal performance in failing to get the Latino vote, and he obviously was not going to get the black vote.
The Democrats could do well with a high voter turnout and enthusiastic younger voters.
Voter stats from a Washington Post story, an easy google search. I’m posting from a tablet browser that doesn’t do links well.
Doug R
@magurakurin: Actual Democratic Socialists may take over Canada’s Texas-Alberta after 40 YEARS of Conservative rule: http://www.cbc.ca/news/elections/alberta-votes/alberta-ndp-poised-for-historic-breakthrough-new-poll-suggests-1.3054823
Cacti
@Brachiator:
Here’s why I think the GOP candidate is in big trouble vs. Hillary should she win the nomination.
She has a +24 favorable rating with all women (Dem, Rep, Ind) with 56% favorable, 32% unfavorable, and 12% no opinion/undecided. If she wins 56% of the women’s vote, it’s game over for the GOPer.
If anything, I’d say she has a chance to grab about 60% of the women’s vote, as the attacks on her will grow more nakedly sexist as the campaign wears on.
Cckids
@WereBear:
When I’ve seen Sanders on Colbert or Jon Stewart, their (youngish) audiences scream approval for his ideas like he’s a rock star. Anecdata, I know, but still a good sign.
Germy Shoemangler
@Cacti: And the GOP choice will pick a lady VP, using the same logic they did with Palin.
rikyrah
@Kay:
You always find good stuff, Kay. On the money
Betty Cracker
@Cacti: Someone will be along shortly to tell you how wrong you are about HRC’s appeal to women, but FWIW, I agree with you.
Jimgod
Longtime lurker, but as a political science grad student, I have to jump in on this whole party membership argument re Sanders. There is no such things as party membership in the United States, we are unique among all developed democracies like that. The closest analogue is party registration when one registers to vote. Except not every state has partisan registration. Here in IL for instance, we don’t pick a party when we register. Ergo, there are no registered Republicans or Democrats or anything in this state and the same situation in a host of other states. Vermont is such a state as well. Obama is not a registered Democrat and was not when he made his 2 presidential runs. So to anyone complaining about Sanders, there is no issue here. The NH Secretary of State is just being a dick it seems.
PS: You never vote the for the person running anyway. In the primary you vote for a slate of delegates to the convention, in the general a slate of electors to the Electoral College. So long as they are registered Democrats in NH or wherever else that is required, then it’s all good.
Here endth the lesson.
Cckids
@Suzanne:
Yes. They stone cold turfed out the Mormons when the church didn’t like their motto change to “Every Girl A Leader “. The Mormons wanted to use the GS name without committing to that ethos, & the GS told them to GTFO. Individual girls are Mormons, of course, but no church-sponsored troops.
Contrast that with the Boy Scouts, who just gave themselves over to the Mormons & evangelicals; it is destroying them.
Brachiator
@WereBear:
But you still have to look at her honestly. And in the long run of history going forward, you have to look at political spouses of any gender.
I know women who look at Hillary not from a feminist perspective, but from a romance novel perspective. They see Bill and Hillary as soul mates, and that Hillary must be as capable as Bill because he married her and in an ideal marriage soul mates are by definition equal. Some of these women want to see Hillary elected because they want to see the man they really love, Bill the Rogue, back in the White House and serving as co-president with Hillary.
Also, in lower level elections, we have seen a woman positioned to run for a father’s or husband’s office, to help a political party retain control, but at the presidential level, we have stuff like the example of Eva Peron.
On the other hand, there are numerous examples of capable presidential wives. Wasn’t Wilson’s wife de facto president during his illness.
But if you want an example of a superior female political advisor, you should check out Teddy Roosevelt’s sister. It is said that he never made a major move without her advice.
Baud
@Betty Cracker:
The polls are skewed!
Keith G
@Kropadope:
To one extent or the other, all politicians act as weather vanes. This includes even President Obama. A remarkable very few politicians are willing to get out too far in front of their constituencies.
Brachiator
@Cacti: I noted back in 2008 that Hillary had received primary campaign donations in California from Republican women. And I think that a number of women of Hillary’s generation, especially those with similar life experiences really wanted to see her as the first woman president. I am not sure that she resonates as highly among younger women voters.
Polls are fun, but they don’t mean much until you compare an actually nominated Clinton against an actual GOP opponent.
And while I might expect Hillary to do well with women, we don’t really know what might motivate religiously and politically conservative women. What might happen should the GOP find another Sarah Palin?
A. Simpson
I agree & support Sen. Sanders’ positions on all issues that are important to me except one: PLEASE NOTE: He is in favor of continuing the “War On Some Drugs Used By Some People.” His position is so backward & proven wrong & on the wrong side of history that he should be questioned about it before he gets any donations. The WOSDUBSP was started by Richard Nixon. And Sen. Sanders wants to keep it going!!!
Ramalama
@Brachiator: Got Generalization?
Sorry, I couldn’t finish reading what you were pontificating on due to spontaneous projectile vomiting.
Cervantes
@Baud:
Here is the bit my question was about:
You say:
That’s your reading of the statement, whereas I took it as an objection, along the lines of “If he can’t even be bothered to register as a Democrat, then I am not going to take his run seriously.”
To which I asked: “Does it bother you that the Democratic Party does not seem to mind as much as you do?”
Needless to say, my reading of the original statement could be completely off.
That’s all.
@gf120581:
I agree. What I wondered about was the reason for thinking it’s a “completely different story.” For example, would you attribute it entirely to the mores of the national media, who focus (capitalize?) on appearance more than their local counterparts do? Or is there something else?
Germy Shoemangler
@A. Simpson:
He said in an interview “I have real concerns about implications of the war on drugs. We have been engaged in it for decades now with a huge cost and the destruction of a whole lot of lives of people who were never involved in any violent activities.”
sparrow
@magurakurin: How on earth will we ever take back the word “socialism”, which should never have been demonized, unless we own it? We must use it unashamedly and take the time to explain what socialism really means.
Cervantes
@WereBear:
And … ?
@Brachiator:
How many such women do you know? Is there some reason to believe the views you relate here reflect a significant part of the electorate?
Germy Shoemangler
@sparrow: There was a scientist who worked at GE in the early 20th century. Steinmetz. He was a genius, and lots of places (including schools) are named after him.
When his history is taught to the kids, the fact that he was an avowed socialist is sometimes glossed over.
Baud
@sparrow:
I’d like to hear that explanation one day.
Tripod
Old white liberals like old white liberal.
Brachiator
@Ramalama:
Your loss.
CONGRATULATIONS!
@Cckids: Just about 40 years ago, I was in Boy Scouts. Our troop was “aligned” with no church and very secular. Some of the experiences and people I met changed my life in a hugely positive way. I learned enough outdoor survival skills that I’m pretty confident if I were dropped into the wilderness with nothing but the clothes on my back, I’d be OK for a while. I had a ball and it was wonderful for me and my troopmates.
If that organization was still in existence I’d be in favor of making it mandatory for all kids. But it doesn’t.
Today, if I had kids, I wouldn’t allow them within a thousand feet of a Boy Scout meeting. They’ve gone that bad. And it is heartbreaking, but they did this to themselves. Deliberately. So I have zero sympathy for the organization and its inevitable destruction, but much sadness and bitterness over what has been lost.
Tree With Water
@Kropadope: Sanders may not be the guy, but in spite of all her endorsements Clinton is far more vulnerable to a inter-party challenge than she was in 2008. Indeed, her greatest accomplishment to date has been to create yet another aura of inevitability about her candidacy, especially in light of the fact she had done the same thing by 2007. There notion that it took a silver tongued devil to deny her the 2008 nomination is correct, but only to a point. She’s a ex-senator from Wall Street WHO STILL DEFENDS the war that Bush-Cheney (et.al) plotted, and the democratic rank and file know it. Other democrats whose presidential ambitions have been cowed by Hillary 2016 remind me of those democratic politicians that sidelined themselves during 1992’s nomination fight, because everyone knew there was no way GHW Bush could lose.
Cervantes
@Germy Shoemangler:
The Wizard of Schenectady!
Did you know he kept pet alligators?
He did try to bring his old-country socialism into the U.S., and to some extent he was successful because his timing was good — there were many socialists elected to office in those days, including the mayor of Schenectady, who encouraged him to take part in civic life, which he did. But I think the constraints of corporate life at GE compromised him somewhat, plus he recognized — as Sanders does, too — that in the real world, doctrinaire socialism is unlikely to deliver on all its promises, just as doctrinaire anythingism is, too.
Brachiator
@Cervantes:
Never thought about the numbers before.
But at this stage of the presidential campaign, before any primary contests. I really don’t have much interest in either polls or mere Hillary cheerleading. On the other hand, I am interested in opinions people have about candidates and why they like the candidates that they do. Apart of course from the obvious GOP is evil stuff.
I had lunch with a friend yesterday. She was telling me about the white women of the westside of Los Angeles, who are swooning again over Hillary. She reminded me, with some traces of bitterness, how these women in her social circle, back in 2007 and 2008 dismissed Obama as an inconsequential nobody who was shoehorning in on their beloved Hillary, but would soon be kicked to the curb. Obviously, these women mainly fell in line and voted for Obama, but they always kept a candle for Hillary and have reignited their ardor now that she has announced her candidacy.
Again, how people view and connect with candidates interests me far more than trying to read polling tea leaves. When we get deeper into the primary season, what I look for in terms of voter sentiment will change.
eyelessgame
It’s not about winning the nomination. It’s about moving the Overton window. A major candidate, with national recognition and money, taking positions to the left of the obvious Democratic nominee, is a thing the country needs. Bernie knows it and that’s why he’s running.
Also, he’s running because Warren won’t and now O’Malley can’t.
WereBear
@CONGRATULATIONS!: The Girl Scouts are so open-minded they might accept boys who are open-minded enough to join.
Be a nice ending. And when the Boy Scouts have gone away, they could be simply the Scouts, which has a nice co-ed ring.
Germy Shoemangler
@Cervantes: Had no idea about the alligators. I recently saw a pbs documentary about him. It didn’t go into enough detail but it was interesting.
Kropadope
@Cacti:
My social cohort trends libertarian. Even among the ones who tend to vote for Democrats, their heterodoxies from standard Democratic positions are principled on personal freedoms; gun rights, surveillance, etc. Hillary is weak on those issues and we feel safe voting against Democrats in MA.
samiam
Lol…you people are funny. Also gettting a laugh at Dkos gushing on about this. Reminds me of that other great progressive cause….”single payer or I’m not voting”.
These are all reasons that I will never call myself “progressive”. That’s like another way of saying “I support causes that sound good on paper but have an absolute zero chance of ever happening”.
Kropadope
@samiam: Progressive, another word that has been distorted by our political discourse. A progressive places progress all else. Moving the ball forward above. Regardless of the particulars of their ideas, they should be willing to work to make some solution happen.
This is precisely my problem with HRC. Her approach is typically adversarial and she has a long record of not passing her own priorities into law. Nearly every major piece of legislation she helped pass into law was a disaster that she supported because of the MSM agenda of toughness oriented political correctness. She maintained this posture throughout her term in the Obama White House.
Cckids
@CONGRATULATIONS!: i know. My son (now 23) was in a troop like yours; my spouse was the scoutmaster. No church affiliation. Emphasis on getting outdoors, leadership by doing, learning skills, not just fluffing by to get as many badges as possible.
We had athiests, gay kids & parents, the first co-ed Venturing troop in the city, a truly kid-led troop. And were pretty unique here in Vegas. The crap we saw from both the Mormons & some Catholic troops was shameful.
It is sad, because the core Scout program can do a lot for kids like my son, who was shy & introverted, & got a chance to become a leader and do some amazing things. But any kids he has will never be in Scouts.
samiam
@Kropadope: Guess what, that means HRC would get MANY MANY many more votes than a (completely hypothetical and totally unrealistic) Sanders run would.
Progressives always seem to lack the one critical ingredient in all their causes. Being realistic. Your imaginary world is one where a progressive candididate would get 10x more votes than what they would actually get.
It’s pure fantasy….wake up!
Although Progressives are an important voting block they are still a relatively small one. So the HRC campaign doesn’t give a damn that you don’t like some of her positions. If anything it tells them they are on the right track because being too far left in a presidentia run is political suicide. That’s just a fact.
Brachiator
@WereBear:
This is a very interesting observation. Is there anything else we should look for to see that she has incorporated more of the Obama playbook and moved away from the old Bill Clinton style playbook?
Mandalay
Villagers on the Diane Rehm Domestic News Roundup, discussing Bernie Sanders running for president:
– Villager 1: One of my favorite descriptions of him, written by one of my favorite political journalists, was his “chaotic halo of thinning white hair”.
– Fellow Villagers: Ha Ha Ha Ha Ha!!!
Perhaps next week they can discuss whether Carly Fiorina has saggy tits?
Vile, worthless scum, all of them.
Brachiator
Another Obama election stat. The importance of younger voters
In winning reelection, Barack Obama won 60% of the vote among those younger than 30. That was down somewhat from 2008, when Obama won nearly two-thirds (66%) of the votes of young people. However, Obama’s youth support may have been an even more important factor in his victory this year than it was in 2008.
The divide between young voters and older voters was as stark this year as it was in 2008. While Obama lost ground among voters younger than 30, he still won this age group by 24 points over Mitt Romney (60% to 36%). He also maintained a slimmer advantage among voters 30 to 44 (52% Obama, 45% Romney), while losing ground among those 45 to 64 and those 65 and older.
Among all voters 30 and older, Obama ran behind Mitt Romney (48% for Obama, 50% for Romney). Four years ago, Obama edged John McCain, 50% to 49%, among all 30+ voters.
WereBear
@Brachiator: According to the WaPo, “Clinton has hired several of Obama’s top campaign strategists to work on her 2016 bid.”
Kropadope
@samiam:
I’m not sure if you quite understood or read what I said, but at least one of the issues I cited Hillary on for being too far left (gun issues). It’s not about left/right or the particulars of any given issue. It’s about being an honest, hard-working politician with a proven track record off accomplishing meaningful things that improved the lives of most people.
Check back and notice that I really haven’t rendered a verdict on Sanders yet, but the preliminaries are good. Most things I’ve read indicate he was a good mayor of Burlington. Also, regardless of his socialist beliefs, he recognizes that he needs to temper his beliefs by incorporating other people’s priorities . Not bipartisanship by mean average or by baby splitting, but by true collaboration.
Stop trying to assist the right-wing mutilation of the English language by accepting perverse definitions of progressive* and socialism. Stop trying to assist the MSM character mutilation of Sanders by turning him into some sort of fire-breather. He’s a collaborator, a realist, and man of the people; unlike the assumed Democratic standard-bearer.
*As I explained before, this word is about attaining progress, not how far left one is.
Ruckus
@Mike J:
I’m a liberal first. I’m a democrat because that’s the most liberal party we have in a 2 party system. I don’t care if Bifo the clown was running, if I liked his/her policies and trusted him/her to actually follow those policies in trying to govern, then yes I’d vote for that person. Ideas are much more important that a party label. We aren’t voting for HS class president.
Another point and that is perfection. No one, not anyone on this planet is perfect. Politicians aren’t better than the rest of us, anymore than rich people are better or poor people are worse. They are us. Just because someone voted one way in the past does not mean that’s the way they will always vote or think. People can grow and learn till the day they die, if they want to. VP Biden voted for many economic policies that hurt this country, but he was probably voting to protect interests in his state at the time. That enough others voted against their constituents interests should be more important. And even with all of that many here really like VP Biden.
Someone has a flaw? No shit, we all have them, someone in the public eye is going to have them on display all of the time. Would you like your flaws/misjudgements to be on display 24 hrs a day? I’d bet not.
Brachiator
@WereBear: Hiring Obama campaign staffers is a very smart move. Thanks for the info on this.
ruemara
@Cervantes: Nope. And I disagreed with him thoroughly. The point was to close Gitmo. However, I support him in the race as he closest aligns to my politics. But I will never be satisfied with his answers on Gitmo. I hear them and they make no sense.
Im pleased Bernie raised that much. Very pleased. Now I’m wondering if a Clinton/Sanders ticket could arise.
Applejinx
Fuck yeah.
Russell Brand is right that the Presidency is always won by the person who’s spent the most money, but I wonder if there’s a ‘correlation is not causation’ thing going on there. However:
Last guy I gave money to (and also worked for) was Obama.
I am going NOW and giving 100$ to Bernie. Because it’s like in the Matrix sequel, if Neo was the Koch brothers, and we’re Agent Smith instances.
“MORE…”
*fucking money flooding in from everywhere*
Face it, this sends a message bigger than Hillary Clinton can ever do. Hell, if we can’t put Bernie in the White House we can CHANGE Hillary into a Bernie by making it impossible to ignore. I won’t give her money. I’m giving Bernie some, though I am po’.
Brachiator
One other group that must be considered are nonvoters. From a Pew study
Just 52% of Nonvoters Have a Credit Card; 37% Have a Retirement AccountFully 45% of nonvoters say they have had trouble paying bills in the past year, compared with 30% of likely voters. Nonvoters are also much more likely than voters to borrow money from family or friends (41% vs. 21%) and to receive a means-tested government benefit (33% vs. 18%).
And many nonvoters lack the financial tools commonplace in today’s economy: Just 52% say they have a credit card, while about as many (55%) have a savings account. And just 37% of nonvoters say they have a 401(k) or another retirement account; among the older and more financially secure likely voters, 72% have a retirement account.
Nonvoters’ Weak Partisan Ties
Nonvoters Much Less Likely than Voters to Affiliate with a PartyReflecting their low levels of political engagement, only about half of nonvoters (47%) identify with either political party; 29% identify as Democrats, 18% as Republicans while 45% are independents. Among likely voters, 68% identify with a party (37% Democrat, 31% Republican) and just 30% are independents.
Taking into account the party leanings of independents, about half of nonvoters (51%) either identify as Democrats or lean Democratic; just 30% affiliate with the GOP or lean Republican, while 20% do not lean toward either party. Among likely voters, 50% identify as Democrats or lean Democratic, 44% identify as Republicans or lean Republican, and just 6% have no party leanings.
Nonvoters’ Mixed Views of Obama’s Job PerformanceNonvoters do not have particularly positive views of President Obama’s job performance, or of either political party. About as many approve (44%) as disapprove of the way Obama is handling his job as president.
Nonvoters’ views of the Democratic Party are more favorable than unfavorable. Still, only about half (48%) view the party favorably, while 40% have an unfavorable impression. Among likely voters, both parties are viewed negatively, on balance.
ETA, the challenge is to make this group know that they have not been forgotten.
Betty Cracker
@Kropadope:
My condolences. But since only about 11% of Americans describe themselves as libertarians, it’s all the more reason to be wary of using your social circle as a representive sample.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@eyelessgame: I wouldn’t count MO’M out yet. The NYTimes Magazine has a profile of him up, and a later installment where he answers his critics like Simon.
FWIW.
Cheers,
Scott.
Jamine Bleach
@gf120581:
Heh. Yeah, but think about it. What happens in the primaries when Bernie takes Iowa (which could possibly happen, because Iowans seem to have a common-sense progressive twist to them, like the Democrats in Wisconsin and Minnesota); then New Hampshire (because he’s very well known up in that area); and then South Carolina (because there’s no way in hell that a Clinton wins there anymore).
If Bernie takes the first three primaries–can you imagine the panic that sets into the Clinton campaign? Especially when the “liberal” media starts in to eviscerate her? If Clinton wants to win, she’d better A) make darn sure to win either Iowa or New Hampshire (or both), and B) be prepared for the situation I just outlined and how to handle it gracefully and professionally. Otherwise, it might come off like what happened with Obama in 2008.
Jamine Bleach
@A. Simpson:
Then, assuming Clinton supports rescheduling weed, taxing production in the US, pulling back on funding that part of the War on Drugs, and stopping the incarceration of minorities that has resulted from it and all the money that gets dumped into prisons as a result–all of which I support as a progressive–she should get out in front on this point and beat Bernie over the head with it. Heck, I might even vote for her if she took this stance (even though the rest of her platform is pretty “meh” from a liberal standpoint).
Fair Economist
@Brachiator:
A Democratic House.
Betty Cracker
@Fair Economist: Joni Ernst might do nicely. But who are we kidding? Palin was a once in a lifetime catastrophe.
Cervantes
@eyelessgame:
Is this a fact now?
hitchhiker
@Betty Cracker:
Classic, fantastic Betty C comment. Thank you.
I missed this whole thread as it happened, but just read all the way through . . . the only thing I can add is that when HRC came through Seattle last June to sell her book, I went down to the UW Bookstore to get one. Had no idea what to expect.
They’d anticipated a crowd, so you had to have come in to pick up a ticket earlier in order to get in the line. The line snaked all the way through multiple levels of the store, back and forth among the textbook stacks, and volunteers were on hand passing out bottles of water because it took so long to get to the front.
It was an exuberant, multi-generational crowd — I happened to be among a bunch of college-aged people of both genders, and they were acting like just shaking her hand was going to be something to tell their grandkids.
I’m not quite as old as HRC, but close enough that I know what it means for her to have accomplished what she has. I just hope to god she wins.
Cervantes
@ruemara:
It’s the answer I usually get when I ask that question: people seem to remember how Sanders voted but have no idea why.
Here’s why he voted no: The President proposed to close the prison in Guantanamo, yes, but did he propose to do anything better with the inmates once they were moved? Indefinite detention without due process is pretty much the same for the inmates no matter where we cage them.
You might deny that last statement — but on what basis? And if Sanders thought that, strategically, it would be better to hold out for a real change in our actions, and not to settle simply for a change of location, I can understand that.
Well, there’s the rub. Simply closing that prison is not the point, is it?
Still not making sense? Well, then you do have a real difference with him.
Interesting question.
Cervantes
@Betty Cracker:
Was that argument being made? The comment might have been simply an attempt to explain some people’s attitudes.
hitchhiker
@Jamine Bleach:
Except Bernie Sanders is not Barack Obama.
If he somehow managed to take down (or weaken seriously) HRC because of eager left wing voters in the first 3 primaries, he’d be making the D side of the election resemble the R side . . . where the point in the primaries is purity and to hell with November.
Raise your hand if you think Sanders really hopes to make it hard for HRC to win in the same way that Cruz doesn’t care if some moderate R gets in trouble.
Brachiator
@Fair Economist: I should have said a competent version of Sarah Palin, and someone equally charismatic. The GOP already has Ted Cruz to appeal to nutcases.
Brachiator
@hitchhiker:
Sorry, I don’t see Sanders as a spoiler.
Then again, I don’t think that Cruz believes that he owes anything to any moderate Republican. Different set of motivations here entirely. Tea Party purists believe that being a moderate is an inherent vice.
Brachiator
Sorry, I don’t see Sanders as a spoiler.
Then again, I don’t think that Cruz believes that he owes anything to any moderate Republican. Different set of motivations here entirely. Tea Party purists believe that being a moderate is an inherent vice.