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You are here: Home / 2015 / Archives for June 2015

Archives for June 2015

Jobs, lags, climate change and the 2016 election

by David Anderson|  June 5, 201511:47 am| 46 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, Politics, All we want is life beyond the thunderdome, Bring On The Meteor, Our Failed Political Establishment

I’m big footing on Zandar and his link to the UK Business Insider regarding this month’s positive job report, as there was an interesting line I want to pursue:

In a note to clients after the report, economists at Capital Economics wrote that the report “adds to the evidence that the US economy is regaining momentum after another winter slowdown.” [emphasis mine]

For some reason the 1st quarter of the past several years have been dismal even as the rest of the year is seeing trend or above trend growth. We really should be seeing massively above trend growth to close the gap in potential output, but we won’t get that with austerians, assholes, economic illiterates and sadists occupying a significant number of policy veto points, so trend to slightly above trend growth is probably the best we’ll get.

One of the drivers of the 1st quarter drops has been absolutely miserable weather. It has been the polar vortex, it has been snows that bury Boston as if it is Buffalo, it is drought and deluge. It is climate change acting as predicted. And then spring comes around and people dig out and go about their normal life again and things rebound.

Politically this is important because a good number of the fundamental presidential models argue that economic growth is a key component of an incumbent or incumbent party winning re-election. The perception of economic growth through which the marginal members of the electorate is not anchored on Halloween. Instead economic expectations for a Presidential election are anchored during the first or second quarter preceding the election. Everything else short of a helicopter drop of money takes too long and is not sure enough for people to conclude that the current baseline is the real baseline.

So if economic expectations are anchored during the preceding winter and we’re expecting more frequently ugly weather due to climate change, this is yet another positive feedback loop where we keep dumping inputs into the system that worsen the situation without any stopping mechanism.

Time to look for new land by Hudson Bay.

Jobs, lags, climate change and the 2016 electionPost + Comments (46)

Morning Open Thread: Jobapalooza

by Zandar|  June 5, 20158:49 am| 113 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Open Threads

280K new jobbity jobs, and enough people added to the workforce to actually push the unemployment rate up a tick to 5.5%. Hourly wages up too, as well as upward revisions to that crap ass March number.

Solidly beefy, like a good bowl of chili.

Open thread.

Morning Open Thread: JobapaloozaPost + Comments (113)

Scope of care

by David Anderson|  June 5, 20157:00 am| 28 Comments

This post is in: Anderson On Health Insurance

One of the big worries with health care reform and access expansion was finding the providers to treat patients.  The evidence has consistently shown that people with insurance are more likely to use services than people without insurance, so there would always be a net incremental increase in demand for services.  However the US primary care doctor pool slowly grows and it can not quickly respond, so who would treat all of the new patients and cover all of the new appointments?

That is an excellent question, and one of the dominant sources of new coverage and care is through the loosening of scope of practice requirements for master level clinicians such as Certified Nurse Practicitioners, nurse midwives, physician assistants and nurse anesthesiologists.  Below are a couple of recent stories about how these providers are able to give a reasonable baseline of care:

From Nebraska:

There are just a handful of psychiatrists in all of western Nebraska, a vast expanse of farmland and cattle ranches. So when Murlene Osburn, a cattle rancher turned psychiatric nurse, finished her graduate degree, she thought starting a practice in this tiny village of tumbleweeds and farm equipment dealerships would be easy.

It wasn’t. A state law required nurses like her to get a doctor to sign off before they performed the tasks for which they were nationally certified. But the only willing psychiatrist she could find was seven hours away by car and wanted to charge her $500 a month. Discouraged, she set the idea for a practice aside and returned to work on her ranch….

Nebraska became the 20th state to adopt a law that makes it possible for nurses in a variety of medical fields with most advanced degrees to practice without a doctor’s oversight. Maryland’s governor signed a similar bill into law this month, and eight more states are considering such legislation, according to the American Association of Nurse Practitioners. Now nurses in Nebraska with a master’s degree or better, known as nurse practitioners, no longer have to get a signed agreement from a doctor to be able to do what their state license allows — order and interpret diagnostic tests, prescribe medications and administer treatments.

A new bill in Congress is looking to expand the scope of practice for the Veteran’s Administration’s master level clinicians:

Senate legislation is looking to empower nurse practitioners across the Veterans Affairs Department to practice independently of physicians, regardless of laws in individual states. The goal is to mitigate physician shortages and reduce patient wait times that have been plaguing the VA.

The provision would allow nurse practitioners—including midwives and mental healthcare clinical nurse specialists—to prescribe some drugs and treat patients without a supervising physician.

The goal is to increase the provider supply to reduce wait times and to meet demand without long waits. CRNPs, PAs and other master level clinicians do have less initial training than an MD/DO, but most of the time, they are dealing with a fairly restricted universe of problems where the initial training plus experience and continual education is more than sufficient to appropriately treat people. This is especially true of primary care where most of the time galloping animals that are sixteen hands tall truly are horses instead of zebras. As long as master level clinicians have a referal system in place to send their wierd cases, this is a net win as more people get covered at a lower cost per unit of service.

Scope of carePost + Comments (28)

Rick Perry 2016: He’s Way More Butch Than Lindsey Graham!

by Anne Laurie|  June 5, 20155:21 am| 87 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, Fables Of The Reconstruction, Open Threads, Republican Stupidity

"Time is a flat circle: Rick Perry is upon us again.” http://t.co/qtM52xi6I2

— Forrest Wilder (@Forrest4Trees) June 4, 2015

Lindsey, as it happens, is the one other gen-u-wine military veteran among this cycle’s GOP candidates. But the only reason Rick Perry is getting more media attention than Lincoln Chafee right now is that Texas is so much bigger than Rhode Island…

We know where Rick Perry would like to lead the country. Back to 1861. He’s the first candidate in over 150 years to run for the presidency of the Confederate States Of America. — Charles P. Pierce, Esquire

Tragically, not a joke; read the ThinkProgress article for an interesting list of all the things Rick Perry is on the record as considering “unConstitutional” — from Social Security and environmental/worker/voter protection laws to the direct election of Senators. (In the good ol’ days, state legislatures appointed senators, which was a real boon to corrupt state legislators.)

"We cling to our families, our Bible and our guns," sings Gary Kyle and No Standards Band at Perry announcement. pic.twitter.com/tMdzYkW0h2

— jonathantilove (@JTiloveTX) June 4, 2015

AIDE: We need somewhere to launch a presidential campaign that'll look great on TV AIDE: How about a metal airplane hanger in Dallas in June

— Christopher Hooks (@cd_hooks) June 4, 2015

Row of vets from different wars introduced as "extended members of the Perry family." Now on to Obamacrimes pic.twitter.com/kgXgW4zNFv

— Christopher Hooks (@cd_hooks) June 4, 2015

The NYTimes and the Washington Post could barely bring themselves even to be dismissive, while the Texas media knows him all too well. Christopher Hooks, at the Texas Observer, “Don’t Laugh… “:

… You didn’t think former Gov. James Richard Perry, of the Paint Creek Perrys, was leaving us for good, did you? It has been 30 years since Perry entered public service, almost half of which he spent as a governor whose level of dominance over the state verged on a personality cult…

Perry was never going to go away quietly, oops or no. If you were to make the case for his presidential ambitions, you could point to his survivor’s instinct and his long history of success as a political chameleon—first a Democrat, then a Republican; first a believer in certain parts of the infrastructure of big government, then a tea partier; a Christian conservative, or a Tenther libertarian. What are his actual beliefs? Does he have any, or is he motivated solely by his love of the performance of power? If the latter, it might be the most presidential thing about him…

show full post on front page

Rick Perry 2016: He’s <em>Way</em> More Butch Than Lindsey Graham!Post + Comments (87)

Late Night(mare) Open Thread

by Betty Cracker|  June 5, 201512:45 am| 58 Comments

This post is in: Domestic Politics, Open Threads

Here’s a “God of Death” figure from South America: 

 

I saw it in a museum last week. Creeped me right the fuck out.

Has anyone ever made sticky toffee pudding? If so, got a recipe to share?  

I’d never heard of it until about a week ago, but a friend who doesn’t cook is homesick for it. I found lots of recipes online, but it’s always good to have a personal rec.

Late Night(mare) Open ThreadPost + Comments (58)

Staycation

by John Cole|  June 4, 20158:58 pm| 98 Comments

This post is in: Gamer Dork, Open Threads

I am on a self-imposed staycation for the next week. Done with some stuff I had to take care of, so I am just goingto garden and blog and play computer games and try to harness Thurston’s energy into something productive.

Speaking of games, there are just too many out there to keep up with. I have Pillars of Eternity and the Witcher which need my attention, and expansion for Dragon Age Inquisition, and I am still sucked in hard to World of Tanks. My clan in World of Tanks is all 11th ACR guys, some of whom I served with and many others throughout the ages. We range in age from active duty guys to old Viet Nam vets. We have a teamspeak server, shoot the shit, do clan matches and battles, tell war stories, and just joke around. We have an organized chain of command and clan officers who we elect, and we have clan practices twice a week and scheduled battles twice a week. I spend most of my time in game platooning with a crusty old Sergeant Major from the brown boot era and a guy about my age in Colorado who I met in game, and we work on tanks and joke around.

It’s really a cool thing- part time waster, part rehab, part club, part advice group, etc.

StaycationPost + Comments (98)

Tote that Vote

by Betty Cracker|  June 4, 20155:42 pm| 133 Comments

This post is in: Election 2016, Hillary Clinton 2016, Open Threads

Hillary Clinton identified another vast right-wing conspiracy today:

HOUSTON — Saying there is a sweeping effort underway across the country to disenfranchise people of color from voting, Hillary Clinton called for universal, automatic voter registration for every citizen when they turn 18, at a speech at Texas Southern University in Houston, one of the largest historically black colleges in the nation.

“I think this would have a profound impact on our elections and our democracy,” she said.
People would be able to opt out of being automatically registered under the proposal, Clinton said. She also called for the adoption of an early voting standard of at least 20 days before an election across the country, along with increased availability to online voter registration and reduced waiting times on election day.

Maybe she’s just pandering because she’s an ambition-addled she-beast — so what? For various reasons, including deliberate civic malpractice on the part of elected officials, too many Americans don’t register and don’t show up at the polls. Anything that moves the needle on that helps Democrats.

ETA: Here’s a link to the speech — H/T: valued commenter Elizabelle.

Tote that VotePost + Comments (133)

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