Not that I love John Kasich or Lindsey Graham (I guess I’d rank them second and fourth respectively as least terrifying GOP presidential candidates this cycle), but it’s strange that they probably won’t be allowed in the GOP debates while Ben Carson and Donald Trump will, right?
I guess there’s no way around the fact the GOP base likes insanely right-wing clowns, though. As much as I’d rather punch up than down, the Republicans’ fault lies not in their stars, but in themselves.
And any chance the number of GOP candidates will hit 20?
Jebediah, RBG
If FSM is truly merciful and just, yes.
dmsilev
I think they should do round-robin group debates under the auspices of FIFA.
Eric
@Jebediah, RBG: May his noodly appendage touch us all with a spilt Convention
Schlemazel
If only they would end up at the convention with 10-12 clowns left standing, none with more than 20% of the delegates. Because of the way the GOP runs their show that is not going to happen but damn it would be fun to see the fist-fights and blood-letting of a truly wide open convention.
dmsilev
@Schlemazel: At that point, I’m sure it would become incredibly lucrative to be a delegate. Think of the bribes you could ask for!
Baud
@Schlemazel:
Maybe they’ll have to give Trump a primetime speaking slot (assuming he doesn’t win outright).
DougJ
@Schlemazel:
I think the superdelegates would just settle it anyway.
Baud
@DougJ:
I thought superdelegates was a Democrat-only thing.
DougJ
@Baud:
I was making a PUMA joke.
Bill E Pilgrim
Just as long as this guy is allowed in the debates, then I’m happy.
“Well, the important thing is that he’s a man of faith”.
One of my favorite TMW lines ever.
BTW that was in 2007. Been this way a long time now.
beltane
@Baud: I think you’re right about the superdelegates being a Democratic party thing. The Republicans deal with the issue by rigging their caucuses.
Baud
@DougJ:
Another Democratic thing.
Roger Moore
Who else could climb into the clown car? Are there any plausible candidates left outside?
Hunter Gathers
I dunno if The Invisible Hand has been sated or not. Every possible type of candidate is running. Name one sizable faction of Teh GOP base that has no Champion. And would that candidate poll higher than Jindal?
beltane
Maybe the Iran deal will inspire a few more Bush-era neocons to enter the race. Does Jon Bolton already have a seat in the clown car? I can’t keep track of them all any more.
JR
Three sitting governors.
Four former governors, three from very populous states.
Four sitting United States Senators.
One former United States Senator.
A world-renowned pediatric neurosurgeon.
A former CEO of one of the 20 largest companies in America.
These are the backgrounds of the 14 people Donald Trump is currently leading in the GOP primary polling.
¯\_(ツ)_/¯
Bobby B.
“She was only sixteen!”
-Steve Coogan doing Michael Caine in The Trip
beltane
@Roger Moore: Joe Lieberman. The Villagers would go wild.
Percysowner
Kasich should scare you. He comes off like GWB, “compassionate conservative” who SEEMS like he isn’t AS conservative as the more vocal Repubs. IRL, he’s attacked voting rights, workers’ rights and half of the abortion clinics in Ohio have closed while he has been governor. He’s dangerous because people think he isn’t.
gf120581
Shame no one noticed that Jim Gilmore is apparently taking another go at it. I think he’d make 17.
And then there’s Bob Ehrlich, who still hasn’t gotten in despite openly flirting with it for a while now.
I’m hopeful the GOP hits 20 candidates, but we may be running out, because now we’re down to failed one term governors who got their asses kicked in their last elections.
dmsilev
@beltane: Bolton said he wasn’t running.
Sarah Palin is probably feeling very neglected and ignored right about now…
Baud
@Percysowner:
I don’t see how he gains traction in the primary unless others implode.
Bill E Pilgrim
@JR: That was like reading “The Twelve Days of Christmas” written in Republican.
GHayduke (formerly lojasmo)
@beltane:
The democrats deal with it by letting their front runner hire a manager who doesn’t know the difference between a caucus and a primary.
Southern Beale
Running for president has become a meaningless exercise. You used to run for President because you wanted to be the fucking president. End, full stop.
Nowadays, it’s simply a tool to be used toward furthering whatever your personal ambition may be: fame, fortune, whatevs.
Didn’t used to be treated so casually, you know?
DougJ
@beltane:
Good thought.
gf120581
@Percysowner: Kasich would be interesting, but he doesn’t have much of a chance in a field this crowded. Also, apparently the GOP money guys don’t like him because he’s not enough of a dick to “those people” (he apparently told off a gathering of them over his decision to accept Medicaid expansion and they didn’t take it well). He’s more likely to be a Veep potential, since he would be helpful in Ohio (especially since Rob Portman, the perennial GOP Veep potential from Ohio, is not an option since he’ll be too busy fighting to save his Senate seat).
beltane
@dmsilev: The clown car could use more wimmins, and Sarah Palin has much nicer hair than Donald Trump.
khead
I would like UNDER 20 for $100 please.
I also like Buffalo and Minny in the NFL Week 1. FWIW.
MattF
Can we make a list of financial backers? Owning a candidate is the new bling for billionaires (owning a condo in mid-town Manhattan is so old). As far as I can tell that’s the only difference between them.
jl
” And any chance the number of GOP candidates will hit 20? ”
I want fifty-four. Fifty-four GOPers or fight!
And as for debates, i think the latest plan is that they all get in a debate, either the big show prime time debate for the top ten, or the kiddy consolation junior debate for the rest.
What I have been worried about is getting the right mix in the big show debate to maximimze entertainment value and damage to the GOP (which I have been assuming is kind of same thing, but please correct me if I am wrong).
beltane
I’m a little surprised that Newt Gingrich is passing up the opportunity to run against Hillary Clinton. Gingrich also has nicer hair than Donald Trump.
DougJ
@beltane:
Maybe the Pluto pictures will inspire him.
Josie
@DougJ: I’m curious to know your first, third and fifth least terrifying Republican candidates.
MomSense
I think we should do brackets.
MattF
@beltane: I can think of several biological entities that have nicer hair than Donald.
Jeffro
By this coming spring, I think the only ones still in active contention – whatever that will mean – will be:
– Jeb Bush
– Scott Walker
– Marco Rubio
– Ted Cruz
– Rand Paul
– and if the FSM is truly gracious, Donald Trump
By the convention, I expect that at least 4 of them will still be viable, delegate-wise. Oh happy day!
jl
@Josie: And how much more, or less, terrifying is the least most terrifying compared to the most least terrifying. And what does “terrifying” mean in this context?
They are all uniquely incomparably categorically unfit for running or winning or governing. It gets worse every cycle, even though I have told myself it can’t get any worse next time, since Dub was nominated.
lamh36
I think after all is said and done Jeb and Scott Walker will be the last ones standing.
As for the debates, won’t this just make Jeb look the more reasonable in comparison to the other nuts?
Like for Romney last time.
Debbie
Listen to a speech or two from Kasich and you’ll truly be terrified.
KG
In the old days, things like the Iowa Straw Poll (as dumb as it was) would weed out lesser candidates. I’m not sure what events there are on the calendar that could push candidates out now, other than cacauses and primaries
Zinsky
Barring an accident, an assassination or a heart attack or stroke, Hillary Clinton will be our next president. These fucking goofs are just a sideshow to keep Anderson Cooper and the herd of other faux journalists busy for the next 18 months.
schrodinger's cat
I predict that the number of candidates tops out at 15.
Tommy
@DougJ: My parents are in town for the week. The other day I was like we are coming up on Pluto, we are coming up on Pluto. My parents are not assholes but didn’t get my point.
I showed them pics and they were like WTF. Asked if they recalled when I was a kid how much I liked to look up to the stars. So you bought me a telescope.
Forwarded dad pics of Pluto.
GHayduke (formerly lojasmo)
Donald Trump butt plug (NSFW, Obvs)
jl
@lamh36: Maybe, but what sequence of disasters and self-humiliations and pissy passive aggressive sneers will Jeb! produce whenever he is forced to answer a question (which I am told occurs with unfortunate frequency at debates).
Jeb! might be such a sad bundle of walking political ineptitude that it will cancel his moderation. I hope so, and his performance so far has gotten my hopes slightly up.
DougJ
@Josie:
Pataki is the least terrifying, Jeb is the third least terrifying. I’m not sure I know who my fifth least terrifying is, maybe Carly, but she was pretty scary at HP.
Randy P
@beltane:
Isn’t Ann Coulter getting kind of attention-starved? Why is she not in the running?
Or Michele Bachmann? Heck, even Michelle Malkin, where did she disappear to?
NonyNony
It’s not strange really. Lindsay Graham is an out-of-touch moron who should really know better than to try a run for the Presidency. I have no idea what he’s thinking – he has no constituency that is interested in seeing him be President outside of a handful of journalists who see starbursts when he talks smack about sending soldiers off to die for pointless macho posturing. Meanwhile most of the GOPer primary voters hear his voice and immediately think he’s gay. He has to be assuming that everyone else is going to implode and he’ll be there to pick up the pieces when it’s all done (or that he’s a shoe-in for a veep slot, but the runner-up taking the veep slot is out of fashion these days).
Kasich, meanwhile, I suspect is trying to game the system – possibly in active collaboration with his buddies at Fox News. He’s making his official announcement next week – he’ll be planning to be polling at his highest right after that “post announcement bump” that these guys all expect to see right after they announce. If Fox rigs the polling so that all four of the polls they average together fall into Kasich’s post announcement bump – or if they massage the averaging based on his “impressive performance since his announcement” and “taking into account the lateness of his announcement” then he can force his way up onto that stage and bump one of the other clowns out.
Of course this all depends on him getting a post-announcement bump and not having Trump suck all of the air out of the room right after he announces. If I were Jeb! and I was paying Trump to suck up the oxygen so the other candidates don’t have any breathing room, I’d make sure that the Donald was on hand to say something stupid and offensive and get the cameras back onto him and off of Kasich. Of course the Donald, being a narcissistic asshole of the highest order, would naturally resent Kasich taking the spotlight from him anyway and so is likely to do that even if he isn’t working for Jeb! So really, I’m kind of counting on Trump being Trump next week when King John makes his announcement…
CaseyL
I have this vision, which I cannot shake, of Ted Cruz at the GOP Convention holding an assault rifle in each arm and machine-gunning everyone in sight.
Josie
@jl: So true. That is why I was wondering about DougJ’s ability to prioritize them.
DougJ
@lamh36:
I think so too, it’s Jeb or Walker.
Maybe Rubio, he’s no dumber than Walker, but I like the chance of a dumb white guy better than those of a dumb Latino guy in a GOP primary.
KG
Per the GOP rules, at least 21 states will award delegates proportionately. (Any contest held before March 14). Nine states haven’t set a date. Among the winner take all states are Florida and California (which is always in June and normally too late to matter). Texas is in the very early Super Tuesday. New York hasn’t set a date
ETA: oh, and Super Tuesday happens right after South Carolina and Nevada, so most all of them will still be active, splitting delegates
MattF
Semi-seriously, since they all have the same platform (I Hate Obama!), what’s the point?
schrodinger's cat
@schrodinger’s cat: I meant to write 25 but WP won’t let me edit my comment.Off to sleep since I am too tired.
Jeffro
@CaseyL: Verbally, sure. He does want that Veep slot (I mean, he wants the top slot, but some small part of him must know he can’t get there…yet) and if any of them would hold delegates hostage and/or threaten to (metaphorically) blow up the convention, it’s him.
Mike in NC
Surely we can hit 30. Gingrich, Bolton, DeLay, Thompson, Alexander, Pence, Brownback, Scott, Bachmann, Cain, and maybe even Bob Dole. A last hurrah, boys and girls!
jl
@CaseyL:
” I have this vision, which I cannot shake, of Ted Cruz at the GOP Convention holding an assault rifle in each arm and machine-gunning everyone in sight. ”
Might be a premonition of an upcoming Cruz campaign biography, which will, at bit unconventionally, include a few scenes of his future, maybe all the way up to his Ascension, him being Ted Cruz and all.
NonyNony
@DougJ:
It won’t be Walker unless Jeb! really fucks things up. It turns out that Walker doesn’t seem to play well on the national stage – he’s a guy who thinks he’s Ronald Reagan when it comes to campaigning but isn’t even in GWB’s league.
I think Trump is more likely to be the GOP nominee than Walker is, no matter how much money the Koch brothers pour into his campaign. He’s as boring as Tim Pawlenty and not nearly as smart. (I’m more worried than you about Kasich getting into the race – I think he could go the distance if he can get some initial support. Hopefully between the Bush family and the clown car sideshow his announcement will fizzle and he’ll go nowhere. He’s the real “phoney moderate” candidate that “sane Republicans” will coalesce around if Jeb! can’t get them locked in early.)
Tommy
@efgoldman: I’ve never had anything close to direct interaction with a person at this level. I did with Carly Fiorina. She is shit all stupid. Been on a conference with her. Worked with her, or well people that reported to her. She is not a smart person.
beltane
@NonyNony: If Jeb starts to sag badly, Mitt Romney might be inclined to enter the race.
Felonius Monk
@GHayduke (formerly lojasmo): I’m waiting for the Donald Trump Dildo — it’s bound to show up sooner or later.
Mike in NC
@NonyNony: I’ve concluded that Lindsay Graham is only in this thing as a surrogate for his BFF and mentor John McCain, who is too old to get humiliated all over again.
Cacti
16 x 0 is still 0.
NonyNony
@beltane:
The Universe does not love me enough to see Mitt actually enter the race for a third beatdown.
MomSense
@efgoldman: I am blissfully ignorant. Visiting New York at present and avoiding news.
tomtofa
@Randy P:
Atlas Jugs could use the Secret Service candidate protection . . .
beltane
@tomtofa: With all the hate for Mexicans coming from Trump, the Islamophobic wing of the Republican party must be feeling a bit neglected.
Tommy
@MomSense: You know NYC. Don’t read the news just have fun. Too much cool shit to do in the city then worry about this or that!
catclub
@Jeffro:
If Cruz is there, and in that group, he could be very dangerous, since he unites the way-way right of the party.
jl
@Felonius Monk:
” I’m waiting for the Donald Trump Dildo — it’s bound to show up sooner or later.”
What do you mean ‘waiting for’?
Who is that walking dildo who’s been running around the last couple of weeks insulting everybody then?
I’m confused.
gf120581
@NonyNony: I think the same about Walker too. His actions have shown he really is not ready for the big leagues.
Also, Walker is not appealing on a visual level. He has a perpetual “derp” face, a giant bald spot that looks like someone hit a nine iron off his head and forgot to replace the divot, and those dead eyes that don’t scream “president,” they scream “I have a body dump in my basement and the cast of Criminal Minds is raiding it as we speak.”
RSA
@MomSense:
Cage match. All of the candidates talk aggressively, but I want more than metaphors.
Kay
@NonyNony:
But Republicans here really do now believe that they lose Presidentials because their candidates are too moderate.
They took the wrong message from winning midterms and losing presidential races. They think they win midterms because that’s when the “real” Republicans run.
It doesn’t make any sense because the GOP base votes in both midterms and Presidential elections and they need a net gain from somewhere, but it doesn’t matter. They just adopted the Democrats theory of why Democrats lose midterms and turned it upside down :)
catclub
@NonyNony: Graham is there to beat on Rand Paul, and any deviations from GOP neocon warmongering.
Carly Fiorina is there to be the woman who attacks Hillary. The party really wants her on the stage for a while.
I think Carson loses the most so far from Trump taking all the oxygen.
If likeable matters in that group, Rick Perry will get another look. Not sure that it does matter.
Roger Moore
@KG:
Debates could; if a candidate forgot how to count during a debate, that might force him to bow out. A bad gaffe outside of a debate possibly might, especially if it involved being in agreement with Obama on a significant issue. So could almost any really serious scandal, like Christie getting indicted in the Bridge scandal.
MazeDancer
Newspapers in the 3 early states are joining to host some kind of GOP candidate forum before the Fox debate. Iowa, NH, and SC do not like Fox stealing the game.
Rachel Maddow interviewed Joseph McQuaid tonight. McQuaid reiterated that he did not understand why Fox couldn’t have two debates, all the candidates included, drawn by lot who is on stage with whom. Which seems to be what the 3 states are going to do by joining to create an earlier event.
Omnes Omnibus
@Cacti: Math is hard.
Roger Moore
@GHayduke (formerly lojasmo):
AKA a Republican pacifier.
jl
@MomSense:
” I think we should do brackets. ”
Wiki has some nice field guides. This one has all the logos in one place, so people can spot migratory patterns out ‘in the wild’.
Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Republican_Party_presidential_primaries,_2016
jl
Also, from the primary and caucus schedule in the wiki article, seems like the RNC still going with the early decision strategy and want to get a lot of it done in first half of March.
With a goody crew like this one, that might be recipe for confusion and chaos if somebody stumbles, even if a white knight like Romney steps in or is drafted.
NonyNony
@Kay:
I think overall you’re right, but there’s still a core of sane Republicans out there who are looking at electability.
I guess we’ll see if they still have the pull that they used to. And I still think that Kasich is DOA if Trump decides to stomp on his announcement next week.
lamh36
“Heritage not Hate”.. yeah, right!!!! Bullshit!
t.co/nWxKks4X4W
KG
@Roger Moore: yeah, and that did it in the old days too… There’s just no earlier filter
Felonius Monk
@efgoldman:
I know. I read Suzanne’s reports. I admire her fortitude and bravery.
Tommy
I live in IL. I have always felt IA is like a sister state for me. Been in the state more than a little. Last couple years I’ve been yelling stop being crazy. You are above this!
Amir Khalid
@efgoldman:
I find it hard to take Carly Fiorina’s candidacy seriously. Her argument for becoming president rests on two points:
— She was CEO of Hewlett-Packard. Fiorina was sacked from that job; her performance in it is considered among the worst by a CEO in recent history.
— She takes away Hilary’s ability to say, “Vote for me, I’m the woman.” But Hillary doesn’t say that.
MomSense
@Tommy:
If we walk past Trump tower tomorrow I’ll take a selfie giving Trump the finger. That is as close as I will get to politics this trip.
Kay
@NonyNony:
We have to wait and see Kasich “in context” on a national stage. Most of the governors tank. It’s just a whole different level. He can’t really talk- have you noticed that? He can’t describe or clarify anything he does.
I myself think the Bush’s will knock him out in some underhanded way and the Koch’s didn’t even invite him to their big event in Columbus in August, so there’s both factions of the GOP donors, against him.
This is the Onion candidate profile on Walker:
redshirt
I’ll join your republican Presidential primary fantasy league DougJ.
AnotherBruce
@MattF: I can think of biological non-entities that have nicer hair than Donald Trump, such as roadkill.
Roger Moore
@Kay:
I think accepting Medicaid expansion is going to kill him with the big Republican donors and a lot of the base. Defending it on religious grounds is going to hurt even more. Nobody in the Republican party wants to be told that expanding a government program for the poor is something Jesus would be happy about.
Amir Khalid
@Kay:
I think how well Jeb does against the Republican field will mostly or even entirely on his sabotage-fu. It’s the only thing that can differentiate him from the other candidates.
gf120581
@Amir Khalid: Fiorina’s pretty much been a failure at everything. She’s failed as a CEO (hey, at least Mitt was a successfull businessman), she failed as a McCain surrogate (her “I wouldn’t trust John McCain to run a major company” comment got her disappeared faster than a Mob snitch) and she failed as a Senate candidate (only memorable thing was the “Demon Sheep” ad). So her campaign strategy is basically, “I’m a woman and can say mean things about Hillary and not look sexist.” It’s not doing anything.
She’s not going for President, really. She’s going for Veep. Her thinking is that the GOP will need a woman on the ticket to counter Hillary and if she proves herself as an effective attack dog, it’ll be her. Unfortunately, she’s failing at that too.
Omnes Omnibus
@efgoldman: I dispute the fundamental proposition.
Origuy
@Tommy: I was at Compaq when HP took us over. Before that, I was working for Tandem Computers, which was based in Silicon Valley. Compaq was a Texas company, so we were happy to be part of HP. Carly spoke at the big meeting of all the SV Compaq employees. She talks good; but her reputation had preceded her. It’s true that HP employees celebrated when she was fired.
ETA. Compaq took over Tandem, as well as DEC, before the HP takeover. It didn’t get as much press as the HP one did.
Tommy
@Origuy: I just don’t like the lady.
Roger Moore
@AnotherBruce:
And Rick Scott.
Turgidson
@Amir Khalid:
She also ran a dumpster fire of a Senate campaign in 2010 and got blown out by Boxer, who might have been vulnerable to a serious candidate (fortunately, the California GOP hasn’t had any of these lately).
DissidentFish
@gf120581: He’s an fashion lesson: if you have a bald spot, don’t dye your hair jet black. It’s not a good look (and believe me I know…)
Paul in KY
@Percysowner: He could plausibly take Ohio, as he’s won election there before.
Paul in KY
@Tommy: As long as we get their electoral votes in the General, I’m fine with Iowa.
PaulW
I posted this idea weeks ago, and it still is feasible IMHO:
noticeatrend.blogspot.com/2015/05/a-modest-proposal-for-republican-2016.html
First round: head-to-head play-in (16)
Second round: direct podium debate (8) with top four vote-getters moving on
Third round: Thunderdome