Exciting news! A piece of what could be erstwhile MH370 has turned up. Its location seems puzzling at first, mostly because oceanographic literacy is understandably rare in the reporting world.
The wing part washed up recently on the French island of Reunion, in the Indian Ocean east of Madagascar. On the surface this seems odd because many experts believe that MH370 crashed when it ran out of fuel in the south and west of Australia, also in the Indian Ocean but a long way from Reunion. Reaching that little island would be a long trip given that plane’s fuel reserves, and it might call for a significant detour around our powerful radars in Diego Gracia. But in fact some cocktail napkin calculations I think Reunion could be quite consistent with the original crash theories.
The first thing you need to know is the surface of the ocean is everywhere in motion, driven by the prevailing winds and bent by coastlines and the gentle tug of Earth’s rotation. You probably know about the Gulf Stream, part of the great gyre that circulates surface water clockwise around the northern Atlantic. All major oceans have gyres like this, and unlike your Australian friend’s toilet they do respect the Coriolis effect, so these gyres circulate clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and counter-clockwise in the South.
If it followed expectations then debris from MH370 would have ended up in the southern Indian Ocean’s primary gyre, called the South Equatorial Current or SEC. It loops east through isolated Antarctic waters, heads north off of Western Australia and then takes a very long journey just south of the equator, arcing north and west from Perth and then back south again until a brushes past the island of Madagascar. Within the SEC you can find a number of tiny, isolated island chains, from the Cocos in the east to Diego Garcia with its strategic airfield over to the Reunion on the western edge of the Indian Ocean. If you stand on the southern shore of Reunion and toss a bottle in the water, there is a small but nonzero chance that a beachcomber in the Cocos islands 2,800 miles away will trip on it some time later.
So I asked whether MH370 would have enough time to tour two thirds of the SEC. That wing spar would have spent most of its trip in the northern SEC, where surface currents average a hair over one mile per hour. That adds up to just under nine thousand miles per year (one mile per hour sounds slow, but a year has a lot of hours in it). Floating the SEC in the outside lane, which includes Reunion and the estimated crash site, you have a full circle of ten to twelve thousand miles. That puts the debris in about the right place and time if it followed the canonical trajectory of the Indian Ocean’s southern gyre. I would say the odds of a piece of debris from MH370 finding a spit of land as small as Reunion is pretty tiny, but if it were to find a tiny island somewhere then Reunion seems like as good a place as any to look for debris.
***Update***
Large parts of airplanes all have serial numbers like the VIN on an automobile, so we will know for sure pretty soon. Plus apparently Boeing is only missing one set of 777 wings.
mtiffany
The odds for any single piece of debris washing up in any particular location are small, but the greater the number of pieces of debris, the greater the chance that at least one piece will wash up at a given location.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
Aviation Week:
I was surprised on Rachel’s show last night when she reported that people at Boeing had confirmed that it was from a 777 just from looking at photos. This morning we hear that it may take a week in France.
I’m no expert, but from the shape and construction it looked like it was from a much older plane than a 777 to me. It seemed too small, too thick to be a flap from a plane as big as a 777. Presumably Boeing knows what its stuff looks like, though. If that’s true, why will it take a week?
Oh well. I guess we’ll know soon enough.
Cheers,
Scott.
Gin & Tonic
I always thought pieces would first show up on the coast somewhere south of Perth. Shows what I know about gyres.
NorthLeft12
I am withholding judgment until Don Lemon weighs in. I am sure he will be all over this.
bobbo
This is excellent news! Any day now we will find the survivors
trollhattan
Boeing should be able to quickly confirm whether it’s a 777 flap and if so, whether from MH370. If it is at least it verifies the Indian Ocean as the flight’s ultimate destination and ends any notion of ending on land. Reverse-calculating the crash site based on the Reunion Island find seems dubious, but I’ll leave that to the propellerheads. Ocean current models are quite sophisticated now, as the tracking of debris from the Great Japan Quake demonstrate.
My inner thirteen-year-old demands I share the name of the following city on Reunion: Le Tampon. Am guessing something gets lost in translation.
Bobby Thomson
@bobbo: I see what you did there. That’s also my reaction.
trollhattan
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Apparently the 777 has a unique “flaperon” that might be what this is. Per the Beeb they’ve also found a damaged suitcase washed ashore and are now doing an areal search for anything more.
Brachiator
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Given the scope and nature of the tragedy, it is reasonable that an official confirmation might take some time.
I heard a news story this morning in which some of the families were hoping that this was part of some other 777. Then it was noted that the parts of all 777s are accounted for, except one.
Amir Khalid
If the parts recovered do turn out to be from a 777, then I guess the next step will be to look for any serial numbers or identifying marks that match it to the 777.
I have a fear, though, that this just might turn out to be another false dawn. The CNN story cites an expert noting that a flaperon on a MAS 777 has a zinc chromate coating, rather than white paint as we see in the photo.
dr. bloor
@NorthLeft12: I look forward to CNN scrambling a team of “experts” to discuss the possibility of a re-entry point in the space-time continuum in the vicinity of Reunion.
the Conster
Every single part that goes into constructing a plane has a serial # on it. We’ll know for sure soon.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
Not really.
Gin & Tonic
@Amir Khalid: match it to the 777
Except that every 777 ever built is accounted for, except one.
Another Holocene Human
@mtiffany: It gets better, I think there’s a name for this fallacy, so let’s say with all the islands out there and the nature of currents, the chances of a piece washing up are such and such (ie non-infinitesimal), it is a fallacious framing to look at where it specifically wound up and work backwards. We would be having the same discussion about any one of thousands of islands.
It’s like that old “what’s the odds of Earth having the right conditions for life” yadda yadda while ignoring the fact that there are ten to the oh my god planets in life-happy orbits in the Universe.
Tim F.
@Another Holocene Human: Of course I know Bayesian statistics. It was a rhetorical flourish.
RaflW
@Amir Khalid: I don’t see it as having white paint, but significant corrosion. This is why it is important to have experts do the forensics, hopefully with some speed but certainly with care.
Villago Delenda Est
@NorthLeft12: I’m sure CNN is all over this like The Donald’s hair is all over a Scottish golf course, but I can’t verify because I tossed cable long ago.
Amir Khalid
@Gin & Tonic:
If it doesn’t have a matching serial number, that would suggest it’s not a 777 part after all. Unless it’s a 777 part not from MH370, in which case I’d suggest calling in Agents Mulder and Scully from the FBI.
Villago Delenda Est
@Amir Khalid: Oh, they’ll say it was some 777 that got lost in the Bermuda Triangle, or perhaps was shot down by the Ukrainians to smear the Russians.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
In which case I’d really like to know, why the name? Just sayin’.
Villago Delenda Est
@dr. bloor: The 777 is on the Fembot planet, where the male passengers are slowly being snu-snued to death.
RaflW
Oh, and thanks for the thread, Tim. I am hopeful that this will be confirmed to be from MH370. That would at least confirm for the non-insane that the plane wasn’t hijacked to this or that improbably remote location for nefarious, Bond-villain-like purposes.
Of course, if confirmed, the Area 51 folks will just say this was a spare part scuffed up by the CIA and dumped from a helicopter to throw us off the scent (of Goldfinger, perhaps?).
MobiusKlein
@Villago Delenda Est: As long as it’s slow enough, I’ll sign up.
Elizabelle
@bobbo: I know. LOL.
Thinking how the passengers’ families have lived with their loved ones pretty much floating through space: most realize they won’t see them again, but this would be finality, if it turns out to be MH370. They’ve not had to deal with the final loss yet. Kind of like when one waits a long time to inter a loved one …. And for some, until the fuselage and bodies are found, they will not rest.
Tinfoil Elizabelle wondering, well, maybe the plane did land somewhere after all, and then they ditched the airliner — or selected parts of one — in the ocean after whatever nefarious purpose it was put to.
But only in novels …
I wonder if we will learn, in our lifetimes, what actually brought that plane down …
Amir Khalid
@Elizabelle:
I think it’s most likely the rest of the plane is somewhere at the bottom of the Indian Ocean.
trollhattan
A little more on the part’s likely origin:
Calouste
@Elizabelle: I’d go with pilot suicide. If this is indeed from MH370, that would confirm that the plane crashed somewhere in the southern Indian Ocean, and there is no other plausible scenario that would cause that plane to go there.
gvg
there are underwater ocean currents that flow in different directions than the surface water. Something to do with different tempatures causing water to form layers and the layers to each have their own currents which are usually perpendicular to the layer above resulting in layers of spiraling water. This airplane piece does not have to have been at the surface all the time. After all this time I rather doubt that many pieces are in the same vicinity of each other. They would have different abilities to float..
As for all the other 777’s being accounted for, I rather doubt every piece of every other downed 777 is accounted for. Not to say it can’t be or anything, just that we have to wait, and that probably it won’t be that easy to back track if it is.
trollhattan
@Calouste:
That’s the scenario I consider most likely. A pilot I know (flew 777s, now 747s) thinks it was most probably a cargo fire, but I’ve always wondered how such an event could leave the aircraft airborne for so very long, or explain the timing and location of its going off-line. In any case I’m not holding out much hope we’ll ever find the main wreckage or have a definitive answer. It’s a big damn ocean.
cmorenc
If only it was the wreckage of American-made wingnuts rather than American-made wing parts that was washing up on Reunion Island. But the part about being swept up in a perpetual oceanic gyre fits both cases.
beltane
@gvg: It’s not as if the list of downed Boeing 777s is very long: http://www.airsafe.com/events/models/b777.htm
Snarki, child of Loki
Oh man, just wait ’till the wingnuts find out about the bite marks on that section of wing. They’re barely keeping it together with Jade Helm, BLUE HADES will drive ’em over the edge.
Gin & Tonic
@gvg: There have been 1300 of those planes built, five being a total loss. That’s not an awful lot to keep track of. Particularly for an aerodynamically critical component.
Jeffro
@Snarki, child of Loki: Lol. I’m sure the same ones who think this wing was planted (by the CIA/NSA/KGB/CNN) are the ones who think it’s possible – not likely, but possible – that the Devil put dinosaur bones in the earth.
Tim F.
@gvg: Yes, Boeing knows where every other flaperon is. They’re not exactly aftermarket headlights for a Civic.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
The investigation into Captain Zaharie Ahmad Shah and First Officer Fariq Hamid never came up with a suicide motive for either man. Some farfetched ones, yeah, but nothing plausible.
Elizabelle
@beltane: Note what information did not make it to this entry from your link:
And the aircraft fell apart because ???….
Elizabelle
@Calouste: I am hoping it can be established it was not pilot suicide, if it was not, before too long. Think of the anguish of the pilots’ families, and all those wondering if their loved ones were murdered. Dead is bad, but some states are worse …
trollhattan
@beltane: I had forgotten that the very first 777 fatality was the SFO crash two years ago, which is a phenomenal safety achievement considering the number of planes and time in service (and was 100% human-caused to boot). With MH17 being a shoot-down, that leaves MH370 as the sole unexplained loss.
Gravenstone
@Elizabelle:
Gravity. Wins ever time.
beltane
@trollhattan: And also the only loss at sea. The more I read, the more I am amazed at just how safe the 777 is.
I wonder if anything can be learned by studying the barnacle growth on the flaperon.
Amir Khalid
@Elizabelle:
Well, that’s still under investigation, so it would be premature at this stage to say “shot down by Ukraine/Ukrainian rebels/Russia”.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
IIRC there were some questions regarding erased files from the captain’s personal flight simulator but no, nothing conclusive; certainly nothing like we have on the Germanwings suicide pilot. Since nothing has explained the seemingly meticulous timing of the transponder shutdowns and route change, it remains more plausible the route deviation had a human rather than a mechanical cause, but as I noted above without physical wreckage and recovery of the recorders there will never be a conclusive explanation.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
The file erasures were consistent with normal PC housekeeping, so you couldn’t really infer anything from that.
James E Powell
@trollhattan:
Tampon can refer to a buffer or a swab
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
Well, to be fair you could still infer once you’re left to sift through minutiae in the absence of compelling evidence. There’s a delicate dance ongoing among the airline, the manufacturer and the government when it comes to assigning blame, and some of those players are motivated to keep scrutiny away from the crew at all cost.
Sister Rail Gun of Warm Humanitarianism
@trollhattan:
Doug R
@Elizabelle: Something went wrong, a course correction was entered into the autopilot, but everyone was incapacitated and the plane flew on the new course until it ran out of fuel. Or a variation on the Germanwings crash.
Doug R
@trollhattan: they’ve had some overheated batteries on the 7 E7 or it could have been the cargo like that Florida crash.
Gin & Tonic
@Elizabelle: Because the CIA ordered the Ukrainians to shoot it down, in order to blame the Russians. Duh.
Tim F.
@Doug R: Sure, that explains one course correction. There were several and they had the surprising result of laying an optimal path to avoid coastal radars, if they all happened by random chance.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
Absent compelling evidence, the minutiae isn’t going to yield anything from which you can confidently draw inferences.
Elizabelle
@Gravenstone: I laughed.
Robert Sneddon
@trollhattan: Airline pilots who fly the 777 (aka Boeing Light Twin) call it a “tank with wings”. The SFO incident was a landing-speed tailstrike followed by a half-cartwheel and impact and, to quote one irreverent type on PPRuNe, the rescue crews had to run over a couple of survivors to make the casualty figures look respectable.
DCrefugee
@Elizabelle:
I’m reminded of SNL’s Weekend Update take on TWA800, the 747 that went down south of Long Island in 1996. Paraphrasing:
“This week investigators determined the TWA800 crash was caused by a frayed wire igniting vapor in a fuel tank. The wire became frayed when it was hit by a missile.”
trollhattan
@Robert Sneddon:
Mean, but funny. Feel a good deal of sympathy for the emergency crew that ran over the passenger, as amidst the chaos they actually did an amazing job. As did the flight crew and attendants who got everybody off before the fire really got going. The piloting, not so much.
Robert Sneddon
@trollhattan: Any of the first or second-generation jets (707s or 727s, frex) would have broken in half in the tailstrike and been a fireball down the runway as the shrapnel bled off airspeed. Modern jets are much tougher than their predecessors thanks to a lot of fine engineers and designers.
The PPRuNe commentators tend towards irreverence and black humour, especially the pilots with tens of thousands of hours stick time in their logbooks. See the definition of the acronym “SLF” sometime, or “CFIT”.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Robert Sneddon:
The SFO crash was what convinced me to carry my phone, ID, and credit card in a pants pocket when I fly. Sure, if there’s a catastrophic crash that kills all of us, it won’t matter, but if it’s survivable, I want my phone, ID and credit card on my person.