.
Interesting take from Jeffrey Frank, in the New Yorker — “Does the G.O.P. Need a New Machine?”:
… Reinhold Richard (Reince) Priebus, the leader of the Republican National Committee since early 2011, is not exactly a boss… not if being a boss means being able to exert control over your party. Priebus can seem like the dad in an old-time situation comedy, the ineffectual, slightly comic figure who accidentally switches shopping lists with a shady neighbor. Priebus aside, the Republican Party may nonetheless have acquired a new sort of boss, or perhaps anti-boss—Fox News Channel’s Megyn Kelly, who is politically alert, unflinching, and, to judge from the evidence of recent years, attuned to reality. That’s what so annoyed the onetime “mastermind” Karl Rove when, on the night of the 2012 election, he refused to accept the arithmetic of the decisive Ohio vote. Kelly tried to help him with the math, and their curious dialogue continued two days later, when Rove insisted several times that Obama’s victory wasn’t all that impressive and Kelly said, “You keep saying that, but he won, Karl, he won … and that’s what the Republicans care about, what the Democrats care about.”…
Today’s Republican Party bosses, whoever they are, are no match for someone like the self-financed Trump, who, if nothing else, has shown that the torrents of money unleashed by the Supreme Court’s Citizens United decision, in 2010, may not be the final word on the limits of reckless political free speech. Rather, the beginning of the slow-motion end for Trump, if indeed it is the end, won’t have come from a private conversation among city bosses or a shove from Reince Priebus—or from the other Republican candidates, who are either ineffectual or have shied away. It may take years to understand what it means to give a cable anchor the power, and authority, to try to push a leading candidate off the bus. Until then, though, if no one else is able to, “Boss” Kelly and the Fox machine may be left to take charge.
On the other hand, even Megyn Kelly/Faux News may be impotent against Big Data. Politico gave “senior research psychologist” Robert Epstein a platform to warn us all “How Google Could Rig the 2016 Election“:
America’s next president could be eased into office not just by TV ads or speeches, but by Google’s secret decisions, and no one—except for me and perhaps a few other obscure researchers—would know how this was accomplished.
Research I have been directing in recent years suggests that Google, Inc., has amassed far more power to control elections—indeed, to control a wide variety of opinions and beliefs—than any company in history has ever had. Google’s search algorithm can easily shift the voting preferences of undecided voters by 20 percent or more—up to 80 percent in some demographic groups—with virtually no one knowing they are being manipulated, according to experiments I conducted recently with Ronald E. Robertson.
Given that many elections are won by small margins, this gives Google the power, right now, to flip upwards of 25 percent of the national elections worldwide. In the United States, half of our presidential elections have been won by margins under 7.6 percent, and the 2012 election was won by a margin of only 3.9 percent—well within Google’s control…
What we call in our research the Search Engine Manipulation Effect (SEME) turns out to be one of the largest behavioral effects ever discovered. Our comprehensive new study, just published in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences (PNAS), includes the results of five experiments we conducted with more than 4,500 participants in two countries. Because SEME is virtually invisible as a form of social influence, because the effect is so large and because there are currently no specific regulations anywhere in the world that would prevent Google from using and abusing this technique, we believe SEME is a serious threat to the democratic system of government.
According to Google Trends, at this writing Donald Trump is currently trouncing all other candidates in search activity in 47 of 50 states. Could this activity push him higher in search rankings, and could higher rankings in turn bring him more support? Most definitely—depending, that is, on how Google employees choose to adjust numeric weightings in the search algorithm. Google acknowledges adjusting the algorithm 600 times a year, but the process is secret, so what effect Mr. Trump’s success will have on how he shows up in Google searches is presumably out of his hands…
This has a strong flavor of clickbait, but I’d be interested in seeing what more technologically sophisticated commentors think of the argument.
Amir Khalid
I thought it was the conventional wisdom that The Donald had already stared down Fox News, and in particular Megyn Kelly.
Starfish
If you click through and look at the top questions on these candidates, you will find that people are dumb. The top questions for most candidates are “How old is Candidate X? How tall is Candidate X?” “Who is Candidate X?” is also a favorite among some of the lesser known candidates.
Apparently we care if Bernie Sanders and Donald Trump are married and want to know if Bobby Jindal is a citizen.
I find that a lot of popular things in search engines are so broad that they are meaningless.
MattF
The Jeb! troll has said that he’s engaged in SEO (Search Engine Optimization), although I’m puzzled about how attracting people who are googling ‘Jeb!’ to BJ comment threads is a good thing for Jeb! But maybe the theory is that anything is always a good thing for Jeb!
ETA: Also, the ‘deep field’ is a good topic for mockery.
sm*t cl*de
Epstein has made a Google-related fool of himself in the past.
NotMax
If people are already searching for “Trump,” then his coming up in the search results is hardly manipulation.
Oh, and not everyone uses Google, BTW.
sm*t cl*de
I for one do not care to imagine their sexytime conversations.
NotMax
Somewhat surprising was the survey result on Twitter usage came across this week (can’t find the link at the moment), which reported that 23% of internet users visit or use Twitter (IIRC, that was the percentage of U.S. internet users). Based on how frequently it is quoted or referenced as seemingly having influence, would have supposed the number would be higher.
Switching gears, BiP’s overseers exposed.
Botsplainer
@NotMax:
I don’t get all the Twitter focus that some do. Yeah, an occasional funny or pithy comment occurs, but it is mostly worthless. When LGF gets into one of its cascading Twitter storms, it’s unreadable.
raven
@NotMax: google it
Patricia Kayden
@sm*t cl*de: Yeah. It doesn’t make any sense to argue that google searches are a reflection on who people will vote for in November 2016. I could google someone just to laugh at their douchiness. Doesn’t mean that I want that person as my next President.
NotMax
@Botsplainer
U r 100% rite.
/couldn’t resist
Starfish
@NotMax: I am not surprised.
A lot of people still do not understand the point of Twitter.
Twitter is very immediate and at its most addictive during breaking events. Some people wonder if they should go back and read all of the tweets that they missed, and in most cases that is unmanageable.
There are a lot of things wrong with Twitter. Most of them involve trolls and spam.
People who write books that you have never heard of are always following you for no reason. Some bots that are following hashtags or search terms also follow you for no reason. In other words, there is a lot of spam.
Numerous people have quit Twitter due to harassment.
A recent Tweet by Hillary Clinton asking people to explain their feelings about student loans in three emojis or less had a lot of trolls in it. And the level of trolling involved cartoon penises. You would think that someone would clean up *that level* of trolling, but no one seems to.
WereBear
Twitter comes up less than Facebook based on my anecdotal (and admittedly skewed) inquiry set. Since there’s hardly a hipster in sight.
And I LIKE Twitter, I do it for work, I have one for the cat site, and I have a personal one which is sadly neglected of late.
It is one of those things where you are into Twitter or you are not.
Regarding Google, and considering the bandwidth on this site about Trumpmania, and multiply by a billion, and Google’s regular algorithms would work just fine.
NotMax
@raven
Okay, here ya go.
Botsplainer
Speaking of useless websites, can we talk about LinkedIn? Many times, when I’m simply wanting someone’s phone number, that bullshit pops up. If you make the mistake of clicking it, EVEN IF YOU HAVE A LINKED IN ACCOUNT AND ARE SIGNED IN, you get a page full of uselessness unless (I guess) you have paid LinkedIn.
Starfish
I used the word penis in a comment that is now awaiting moderation. Please make wild speculations about what I might have written.
Baud
@sm*t cl*de:
I’m sure the word YUUGE is involved.
bystander
@Starfish: Do the words Trump or Jeb! also appear in your post-in-moderation?
OzarkHillbilly
Color me highly skeptical, especially of the 80% number. But give him the 20%. Undecideds generally make up about 5% of the voters. 20% of 5% equals 1% of voters. In other words, they might be able to sway a close election, but that’s all.
It still all comes down to GOTV.
bystander
Why is it we talk about the potential first female POTUS but nobody ever talks about the potential first Jewish POTUS? Because Bernie doesn’t stand a chance? Or because he is non-observant? (And I truly have no idea whether he is observant or not.)
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud:
You left out classssyy.
Baud
BillinGlendaleCA
@bystander: I’ll go with someone that calls himself a socialist doesn’t stand a chance in the general election.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I watched Trump on tweety’s show, it was very entertaining. They’re talking about him on Morning Joe.
Trump’s doing a rally at a football stadium in Mobile, AL. They expect a yoooge crowd.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
How does he not run as an independent?
raven
Mike “Doesn’t know what to say”!!!!!!
OzarkHillbilly
@bystander: My vote is for “who knows he’s Jewish?” Learn something new everyday.
Presently 55 degrees and clear skies. Looking for a high of 79. Loving it.
Baud
Is our rubes learning?
WereBear
@bystander: I pointed that out to Mr WereBear just the other day.
It’s just not obvious, the way HRC’s femaleness is.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I think he will, if he doesn’t get the GOP nomination. John Heilemann brought up a pretty good parallel for Trump, the Governator.
Baud
@BillinGlendaleCA:
He’s entertaining, but his birtherism and rhetoric against Mexicans have been odious.
raven
mika
BGinCHI
The American people will never stand for manipulation of their election process. They are too sophisticated and aware of the political ramifications of tampering with the voting process.
The Other Bob
You would think the establishment R’s would wake up and do something about Citizens United before the quacks have full control and there are too few old school R’s left in government to fix it.
PurpleGirl
@Baud: After many years exposure to Donald Trump, I do not find him to be entertaining. He is an uncouth bore.
Baud
@PurpleGirl:
Yeah, I’ve never watched his show. I’m more entertained by what he’s doing to the GOP.
OzarkHillbilly
@The Other Bob: Nah, they’re all too busy trying to secure sinecures on the wingnut welfare circuit.
NorthLeft12
I just read this quote at the Charles Pierce site;
I bolded what the key takeaway is. Carson, and for that matter pretty well all Repubs, seem to always want to apply military solutions to virtually any problem.
What’s that line again about only having a hammer and everything looks like a nail?
gene108
I am very emotionally attached to my old Toyota.
Yesterday, I test drove a car. I asked for a valuation for a trade in for my car. They valued it at $500, which was low. A couple of other dealers gave me valuations of $1000 and $1500 respectively. The $1500 seemed a bit high (I have a couple of dents and a bunch of “dings”), but I was looking a used car that has been sitting on their lot for a long time that they were desperate to move.
Anyway, when I told the sales person I had these offers, instead of saying “let me see, if I can ‘beat up’ my sales manager for you”, he went off about how my car was worthless and I was lucky to get $500.
I got so viscerally pissed off I was almost shaking. I stood up, said “we’re done” and walked out.
I really have come to like my car after 12 years and a lot of miles.
Another Holocene Human
@Starfish: No “What’s your sign?” and “Blood type?”
C.V. Danes
My feeling is that the Presidential election is just a side show to distract everyone from the real issue: wingnut control of state governments. This is where the real battle is playing out, and the Republican ‘machine’ has been very effective.
While we point and laugh at the presidential circus, the wingnuts are taking over at the state level…
BillinGlendaleCA
@Baud: I saw the Governator campaign here in CA, I see parallels. Will his positions hurt him in the state with a large Latino population, sure. I’m sure he thinks that he can offset that.
Another Holocene Human
@NotMax: Hmm, validates a theory some around here had that he stopped getting paid.
David Koch
Poor pathetic ¡Jeb! – he’s been reduced to trolling Trump on twitter in hopes of breaking into the news cycle.
Really weak stuff. ¡Jeb! is just not good at this.
This shit is weaker than the crap Baby Doc was trying.
I imagine next ¡Jeb! will go streaking
BillinGlendaleCA
@gene108:
That’s what I call a new car; I’ll have had my car for 30 years in December.
OzarkHillbilly
@NorthLeft12: I guess he’s never heard of the Posse Comitatus Act.
NorthLeft12
@Baud: Actually it is rather refreshing to read that even a lot of die hard Repubs recognize what a fool and charlatan Paul Ryan is.
I think Mr. Ryan’s time in the sun is definitely over…….although it does not look like the pundit class has glommed that fact yet.
Another Holocene Human
@bystander: My wife is Jewish and doesn’t want to talk about it because she’s afraid of a crapflood of Anti-Semitism like what got throw at Obama as soon as he got elected.
She’s already weary about the sexism a Hilary presidency will probably bring.
She wrote some books with Jewish characters and already sees enough Anti-Semitic derp, especially on Tumblr, to last a lifetime.
Another Holocene Human
@Baud:
where’s that gif of the guy rolling on the floor back and forth laughing?
you do you, republicans. man, that is stupid.
Another Holocene Human
@PurpleGirl: Jon Stewart retired at the wrong time. He’s been ragging that asshole for years.
Patrick
@Amir Khalid:
Mine too. Heck, Trump’s poll numbers have gone up, not down, since the Fox”news” debate. And Kelly was then sent on a 10 days vacation. I have no idea where the author’s logic for his argument is coming from.
NorthLeft12
@NorthLeft12: I was just rereading the Carson quote on using drone strikes to secure the border…….and was thinking…….what kind of idiot/sociopath even asks a question like that?
I mean, I can understand monitoring the border using drones, that sounds reasonable, but actually arming those drones with missiles? What could go wrong?
Another Holocene Human
@C.V. Danes: Labor is very concerned about this. Join us. You don’t have to be in a union. AFL-CIO has some social media you can sign up for (the blog or text messages). It’s only a nominal fee to join Working America ($5). There are also a lot of groups that affiliate with AFL-CIO/CLC. You could also (I know, I know), join your local Democratic party.
Yes, the AFL is non-partisan (and we do have some GOPers left we endorse, though their own party is trying to get rid of them) but let’s be real, majority of elected officials who support our issues are in the other big party and we only really make progress when they have a majority. Labor is trying to field our own candidates, AFAIK the only ones who’ve succeeded have done so under a D ticket.
Got in an entertaining argument with some asshole who told me he was a “pro-life, pro-labor Republican”. I told him access to contraception WAS a labor issue for women workers and his angry ass hung up on me.
WereBear
@gene108: What kind of repairs are you looking at? Usually you trade in the car when book value is 500 and you are looking at bills of $3000 to fix it, and/or the inspection is staring you down.
What’s the deal with your car?
Botsplainer
@Baud:
No, our rubes aren’t learning. They’re clapping louder and demonstrating their belief in more conservatism.
Botsplainer
@PurpleGirl:
And thus, as a candidate, having the characteristics most sought by the most reliable primary voters in the Republican base…
NorthLeft12
@Patrick: “Author’s logic” in this context, is something along the lines of “I think this is an interesting and unique angle that I have thought of myself on this story that has been covered six thousand ways from Sunday”.
Hal
I was watching Ben Carson on Rachel Maddow last night. She was showing him,at a,rally in Nevada where 6000 people for some reason showed up and all I could think was “open your eyes!” He’s always squinting, even indoors. Why do suspicious?
NorthLeft12
@Another Holocene Human: Sounds like a fairly short argument.
This should have been a dead giveaway that the guy really does not have a clue what he is…..or he has a very poor grasp of the English language.
I would love to know how any conservative can describe themselves as “pro labour” while supporting the platform [anti-union, anti-health and safety regulation and enforcement, anti-minimum wage, anti-labour regulations, etc.] that virtually all conservatives support.
Cognitive dissonance? Stupidity? Freedumb?
C.V. Danes
@Another Holocene Human: I’m with ya. One thing we need to deal with is this concept of electability. In blind testing, the majority of Americans align with Bernie Sanders. But as soon as you mention his name, all of a sudden he’s unelectable. Why is that?
gene108
@WereBear:
No real problems at the moment. Passed inspection in April, so it is good till 2017 in NJ.
I have been fixing it as needed and trying not to put off repairs, as they are brought to my attention.
Had the catylitic converter replaced last January, had the front struts and sway arms replaced I April, and had the serpentine belt and serpentine belt tensioner replaced last month.
I probably need to get new brakes, as they ar making the screeching sound, when I stop.
There’s nothing mechanically wrong with my car.
There is a dent I got in a parking lot that is rather noticeable and one on the other side, where I accidentally scraped it against something. Plus I am missing a hubcap, which will be fixed tomorrow or this evening as the replacement hubcap is in transit.
I just figure why eat insurance payments for two cars, while looking for my current car to sell.
RSA
It’s a pretty cool set of experiments, with striking results. Unfortunately, the descriptions aren’t detailed enough to replicate the experiments, and the extent to which the laboratory results apply in the real world is unclear.
Matt McIrvin
@NorthLeft12: “I love labor! I want it to be cheap enough that anyone can afford it!”
LarryB
This story is good news because it means the Repubs are already working on their “who stole the election” conspiracy theories.
WereBear
@gene108: As long as your repair costs do not exceed the payment you would be looking at, and you are not overly insurance-dinged for a car without security or safety equipment, why not keep it?
We live in an extreme climate, and I decided buying used vehicles which broke down spectacularly halfway through the loan was not a sensible use of our vehicle money. We buy new, last year’s inventory, with a three year warranty, and that works for us.
Do what works for you.
Joel
@C.V. Danes: Well, I don’t think he’s very electable because he doesn’t seem to have the ability to form and drive coalitions. In other words: lead.
It’s one thing to believe the right things, it’s another to make them happen.
Mathguy
@sm*t cl*de: Epstein’s Google detected hack: Ooops!
Iowa Old Lady
@NorthLeft12: Their argument seems to be that those things are good for workers. Don’t ask me to explain how they figure that.
Thoughtful Today
Erm,
Google/Youtube already is changing how they react / act toward 2016 compared to 2008.
In 2008 Youtube regularly had political snippets on their front page, news/politics was a regular feature with dedicated pages.
That’s been deliberately buried beneath entertainment now.
You can dig up political tidbits, but they’re harder to find. Instead of seeing political news on the front page, it’s now buried.
That’s a huge change from 2008, where Youtube had enormous influence inadvertently helping Obama as a lot of game changing political video was seen by a much larger audience than just that audience who is specifically looking for political snippets.
PaulW
If anyone’s expecting me to come up with a new drinking game for the GOP September debate, wait until Sunday, I might have something up by then.
NCSteve
Please. On the growing list of serious threats to the continuation of democracy in America, Google is way the fuck at the bottom.
catclub
@OzarkHillbilly: Beat me to it. That was my first thought.
catclub
@Botsplainer:
Short fingered vulgarian?
beltane
@gene108: We just sold a 10 year old Toyota minivan on Cragislist for significantly more than the dealer was willing to give us. I figured the dealership needs to screw customers at both ends of the transaction in order to turn a profit, so at least selling the vehicle ourselves meant we only got screwed at the buying end of the deal.
ThresherK
Wait, his name is Rheinhold?
And he doesn’t wear a monocle?
Jim, Foolish Literalist
This is from a write up on the Quinnipiac swing state poll (Hillary is of course doomed)
that doesn’t strike me as the statement of an objective analyst
Procopius
@bystander: I don’t know either, but it seems to be important to him. Good for him, for caring.
cthulhu
I read through most of the full article. A couple of things I noticed right away:
Their subjects were always paid to participate and knew they were in a research study
In the experiments in the US samples, they effectively tested generic candidates (as such, there couldn’t be an impact of other media or pre-existing bias).
The Indian sample which used actual candidates in an actual election (yes, they really, if fairly and to minor effect, by their own estimates influenced voters in a national election!) had a three candidates, a less common situation in major US elections.
Not surprisingly, the shift by the biased search engine was much less strong among those in the real election, non-significant in some cases.
Interesting though suspect: The most vulnerable to search engine manipulation in the US samples were moderate Republicans and the least vulnerable were those with household incomes of $40-50k.
The authors suggest the “Fox News Effect” shifts votes when, in fact, it merely increases conservative voter participation – that’s an important difference.
The paper is more realistic in its limitations than the write-up.
In the end, it would seem that Google (which should be pointed out is not the only search engine or online platform which could be manipulated – they mention Facebook as well) might only swing an election under very restricted circumstances where there is a high number of non-partisan, low info voters not otherwise exposed to other influential media – not sure how often than happens these days.
(Their data are available for anyone who wants to play with it. The file is lacking clear labeling, however, which would need to be requested from the authors)
Daulnay
The researcher, Dr. Robert Epstein, is 62 years old. He seems to have unusual views about how the Internet works/should work, and personal issues with Google.
Google put a security warning on his website, it was blocked for serving up malware. Instead of first checking it, he insisted it was clean, and lobbied Google – with letters to Google’s CEO, head of legal, various newspapers, and his congressional representative. In the letters, he threatened legal action and insisted nothing was wrong with his site. He later admitted that it had been hacked, but still blamed Google. (this is straight out of the wikipedia article on him).
A few months ago, he published on Huffpo, which shows continuing antagonism for Google. I would be very careful about believing his research, since he’s definitely not a dispassionate researcher.
Daulnay
Sorry, forgot the closing. Should read “this parody” on Huffpo, etc. Could we have a preview button?
Mike in DC
This Shaun King thing has me befuddled. Why? Not the why as to the drive by media takedown, but why, if the allegations are true in part, engage in such a fabrication, and structure a life around it?
M. Bouffant
@ThresherK: No “Student Prince” dueling scar either. A real disappointment.
Sad_Dem
@BGinCHI: You broke my sarcasm detector.
mike in dc
@Mike in DC:
Okay, saw his ultimate response on dkos. Given his appearance at age 14, I’d say his account checks out, and BB et al are full of crap…as usual.