It’s getting harder and harder to tell who’s the smart Bush brother:
Jeb Bush’s campaign is considering giving former President George W. Bush a bigger role on the trail in South Carolina as the campaign looks to give the former Florida governor a boost in the key primary state of South Carolina, the New York Times reported on Sunday.
1. Have historically unpopular president campaign for you.
2. ??????
3. Profit
Major Major Major Major
Idiot.
OT: At long last, part 27 of my serial is up. It’s short but at least I’m back in the saddle!
EBT
In 2020 Neil will run on the platform that he already sank the economy once, what are the chances of doing it again.
dmsilev
This is all part of Jeb’s master plan to take down Rubio and everyone else. Soon, the Brinks trucks full of cash will be backing up to the campaign headquarters. Brinks trucks. Full of cash. Backing up.
(I want in on some of that sweet sweet troll-cash. Why not?)
shell
Two possibilities
1: Throw enough things at the wall, somethings bound to stick.
2: Cant make things any worse.
Poopyman
C’mon now. We’re not talking normal people here, we’re talking South Carolina Republicans. This could be a master stroke by Jeb.
Or not. Either way, the results should be either entertaining or outrage-inducing. Possibly both.
beltane
We’ve been told “It’a all about the Benjamins.” Too bad for Jeb he doesn’t have a well-regarded brother named Benjamin. You’ve got to campaign with the older brother you’ve got, not the one you want.
benw
This is the primaries, and W’s still popular with the right wing base, right? At any rate, W wouldn’t bitch about swimming pool safety regulations in response to a mass murder, so this is a step up for the Jeb campaign.
Trollhattan
Truckloads of irony.
Brinks. Trucks. Irony.
NonyNony
@shell:
Third possibility – Jeb! has seen those “Miss Me Yet” billboards and bumper stickers and thinks that this is something meaningful, rather than a poke in the eye towards Obama by clueless people.
Or fourth possibility – Jeb!’s campaign staff knows that it’s a poke in the eye towards Obama by clueless people but, following cleek’s law, thinks that perhaps if they can convince those clueless folk that voting for Jeb! will make liberals angry, then those clueless folk will vote for Jeb!
Actually, I think that last one might be it. Showing that his campaign has misjudged what makes liberals angry, I guess.
BGinCHI
JEB’s campaign manager would not say whether the former president would be painting caricatures of his brother for a small fee. (AP)
LWA
Jeb! got a call from Bar, with Laura on the other line, demanding he take his brother along to get him out of the house.
What? Its not the least plausible explanation.
schrodinger's cat
The answer is simple, Jeb doesn’t want to be President.
Kylroy
@shell: Yeah, this is still the Republican primary, and most of these voters think Dubya was a valiant defender of ‘Murican freedom. I can see how this would be a good move in the race he’s currently running.
…but that has to be weighed against the fact that he’s writing Hillary’s attack ads for her by cozying up to his brother. I’m deciding to conclude that he’s in the same spot as every other R candidate – must win the crazy now, worry about the rest of the country later (if at all).
RSA
And if that doesn’t help, get Dick Cheney out there. And then make plans to exhume the corpse of Richard Nixon.
dmsilev
@schrodinger’s cat: Isn’t Jeb a little old to be doing the whole passive-aggressive-resistance thing against his mother? Most people get that out of their system by age 18 or so. Maybe next he’ll flounce off into his bedroom, shouting “I hate you I hate you I hate you” as he slams the door behind him.
princess leia
It’s the flooding rain. It is bringing back those awesome Katrina memories for Jeb.
Haydnseek
Better hurry up! You want to make sure that Dubya holds forth in another southern state that is halfway underwater….
Optics………how the fuck does that work?
Trollhattan
Can Dumya reprise his greatest hits by landing in South Carolina in a military jet, jumping out under a “mission accomplished” banner, standing in the midst of a flooded intersection with water to his armpits and yell through a megaphone?
“I can hear you! The rest of the world hears you! And the people – and the people who
knocked these buildings downflooded the bejezus out of this joint will hear all of us soon. Now get me outta here, I hate snakes.”Jeb[yawn] will jump twelve points.
Bobby Thomson
It’s South Carolina. Not a bad move at all.
Mike in NC
Remember that the last SC primary was won by Newt!
So JEB! might do OK taking his idiot brother on the road.
RaflW
When you area at 4% and drowning, a man who managed not to go completely under in his 8 years in office can appear to be a lifesaver.
SatanicPanic
@NonyNony: I think you’re on to something. I’m sure there is a non-trivial number of Republicans still smarting from having their last president become a punchline and would like to refight that battle
benw
@Trollhattan: lol. Bush *still* doesn’t care about black people!
beltane
@Trollhattan: White voters in South Carolina love George W. Bush. All he has to do is step out of a helicopter, glance at the floodwaters, shrug his shoulders and say “Hey folks, stuff happens. Isn’t America great?” and the wingnuts there will flock to his brother.
JPL
@dmsilev:
@Trollhattan:
I’m disappointed that Doug didn’t put the Brinks trucks on the post.
shell
Its called the Etch-A-Sketch strategy.
Marc
Please Lord….let Bush do this, campaign arm in arm with his brother, and barely squeak into a win for the Republican nomination. In a just world, with someone like Cruz as Veep. The backlash would be massive. I’d even settle for a single arm in arm campaign appearance, but I want as many different campaign commercials as possible!
Waldo
Who better to remind the people of South Carolina that Jeb’s his own man?
Trollhattan
O/T the AG will be announcing a BP settlement with the US government over the Gulf spill today. Will be very interested in the outcome and hoping it makes shareholders and officers cry like infants. Not coincidentally, Don Blankenship is in court over the Upper Big Branch disaster, could go to prison for effectively life.
BGinCHI
Now that I think about it, maybe Jeb is bringing him in so that he can pay him a couple million in fees that his brother can then give him back in a tax-free “gift.”
It’s so obvious it just might work.
BGinCHI
@Trollhattan: I hope he gets life and that it’s a short sentence.
Major Major Major Major
OK what is the Brinks Trucks thing about? Driving me crazy.
RK
George W. Bush’s Legacy Is Anything But Toxic To Republican Voters
Berial
To be fair, my evidence is anecdotal, but from what I know of the ‘old white people’ contingent is that Bush (both of them) were/was a great president and Obama that damn Muslim coward has ruined the country for decent folk.
So my guess is that Jeb knows his brother can keep that cohort on ‘his side’. It may even help as this IS the Republican primary we’re talking about.
He’ll get CRUSHED in the general for this, of course, but as long as he’s got Fox he’ll do alright.
Amir Khalid
On this evidence, I’d have to say it’s neither Jeb nor W. As for Jeb not really wanting to be president, who knows? Maybe he’s deliberately sabotaging his own candidacy, but I tend to doubt that; it would have been easier to just tell the billionaires no, and hope they didn’t get too mad at him. I suspect Jeb has always been inept as candidate and elected governor, only he’s never been scrutinised this closely before.
D58826
Different clown but same circus from Kos
The person writing this article obviously hasn’t been paying attention to the GOP method of operation. What Carly did is a feature not a bug and the gooper voters will love her for it., esp that part about the deadbeat widow!!!! A really really nice touch.
Poopyman
@Major Major Major Major: References a
Baghdad BobRight to Rise post on his BFF Jeb. Several posts, actually.Chris
The last name “Bush” is going to be a problem for Jeb no matter what. Distancing himself from his brother isn’t going to convince most people, and it’ll just piss off the 27%ers who think W was the greatest thing that ever happened to America. So instead Jeb is trying to turn them out.
At least, that’s my guess.
The REALLY smart thing would have been to not run. But now that he has, I suppose it’s as good a strategy as any.
NotMax
Posing against a backdrop of a yooge Confederate flag would make the picture complete.
Forward, into the past.
gogol's wife
@dmsilev:
Isn’t there supposed to be a period between “Brinks” and “trucks”?
Amir Khalid
@Major Major Major Major:
It started with some weirdness from Right to Rise, riffing on Jeb’s reserves of UNLIMITED CORPORATE CASH!
Calouste
South Carolina is too late anyway. Bush needs a top two finish, and most likely a win, in either Iowa or New Hampshire or he is toast.
Bill Clinton is the only candidate since 1972 to win the nomination without winning either Iowa or New Hampshire, and that’s because Iowa voted for a former Senator from Iowa, and New Hampshire for a Senator from neighboring Massachusetts.
Roger Moore
@shell:
I’m sure it’s this one. He’s going to lose without W, and he’s not going to be able to avoid dealing with W’s toxic legacy anyway, so he might as well embrace the suck now and see if it helps. The worst thing that will happen is that he’ll drop out of the campaign sooner rather than later.
dmsilev
@Major Major Major Major: The Right-to-Rise Jeb-troll keeps referring to Brinks trucks full of campaign cash backing up to Bush’s headquarters, and that we should expect Jeb[*]’s inevitable campaign ad carpetbombing to begin Real Soon Now.
Bobby Thomson
@Major Major Major Major: first appearance. Now he just uses shorthand.
dmsilev
@gogol’s wife: Fuck. There goes my application. Next audition cycle isn’t for another 6 weeks.
D58826
and it continues from huffington
There is only one logical explanation for all of this – the GOP is a wholly owned subsidiary of the Onion and it is all one long running gag.
Bobby Thomson
You all are overthinking this. It’s a Republican primary. Republicans would vote for Junior again if the Constitution allowed it. Especially in South Carolina. For crying out loud, it’s the state that elected Strom Thurmond.
Jewish Steel
Eagle, fasces, the whole nine yards.
But wait! He drinks goat’s blood? Okay, I’m listening…
https://www.facebook.com/InvictusForSenate?fref=nf
Another Holocene Human
@Poopyman: Hey, some of them probably had “Miss Me Yet?” bumperstickers.
When I first saw that billboard, I thought a Democrat put it up to taunt the GOP.
Cluttered Mind
Despite how horrible the man is and how happy I am that his terrible campaigning is going to ensure that he never becomes president, I’m still not sure Jeb! deserves what Barbara Bush will do to him when he loses.
Ruckus
It’s only one data point but someone I know thinks that GWB is the greatest president ever and is a close personal friend and knows him to be a great human being. I can not believe that he is the only one to see the Bush clan as the saviors of the nation, the rescuers of, well not democracy for sure, but of the idea that money is greatness and the ruthless capturing of more is the greatest way to prove that. BTW did I forget to mention that this person has a bit of money himself?
Trollhattan
@Another Holocene Human:
You mean it wasn’t? I thought the goofy photo they selected was a tell–was it just Republican stupidity on display?
Similarly, when I began seeing “How’s that hope and change working out for you?” bumper stickers (one has to be real close to read a bumper sticker that wordy) my response was always “Great, and getting better! You?”
MattF
Maybe… Jeb! is already getting advice from his brother. Or, at least, getting his strategic planning from his brother’s advisors. That would explain a lot.
NotMax
As son George P. G. is a resident of Texas, and over 35, perhaps Jeb! shall tap him as Veep.
Peale
Do you get credit for not lying about sacrificing a goat and feasting on it’s blood? Doesn’t honesty count for anything in politics?
Alex
George W. Bush is popular in the Republican primaries, especially with the voters that Jeb is trying to attract (not-Tea Party) that this probably helps him. Remember those “Miss me” bumper stickers? And anyone who criticizes George W. Bush is probably part of the liberal media.
Republicans lack the successful politician at the national level outside of the myth of Reagan. So why not embrace George W. Bush — it’s better than the other national Bush figure (he raised taxes!). It isn’t like anyone else will claim him. And it’s impossible to claim to be the most Reaganesque and do well (see Scott Walker).
Amir Khalid
@Jewish Steel:
I took a look at that Facebook of this Augustus Sol Incitatus person. Somehow, I don’t think he’ll make it to the US Senate.
Trollhattan
@Cluttered Mind:
I think Bar’s reaction will be along the lines of, “It’s alright John, I’m sure you did your best.” delivered with withering insincerity and some clucks. Plus seating at the kid’s table for Christmas and Thanksgiving.
MattF
@Amir Khalid: Will he promise to slaughter a goat in the well of the Senate? That would earn my vote.
benw
I’m having joyous thoughts of an angry Obama absolutely hammering Jeb during the debates.
Frankensteinbeck
This will be interesting. It will be informative to see how the base actually feels about Bush. They loved him during his tenure, and technically they still love him and everything he did, but he also humiliated them. He became worse than a joke, his failures smeared everything conservatives love with shame. As @SatanicPanic noted, anger about being shamed is a big deal with the Republican base, but I can’t figure out if that will win, or if despite their loving Bush Lite, they still won’t want to be seen in the same room with him. This election is really putting a lot of theories about what drives the Republican Party to the test.
cmorenc
@benw:
I have a friend since way back in early childhood who grew up to be a hard-core GOP wingnut of the sort who sports “Miss Me Yet?” bumper stickers on his car (with GWB’s picture).
SoupCatcher
@Bobby Thomson:
It’s the state that turned that whole treason-in-defense-of-slavery thing up to 11.
Or, what NotMax said.
Calouste
@D58826: Unfortunately not. The logical explanation is that people Mark Meadows don’t see women as full human beings with the same rights as men.
Frankensteinbeck
@cmorenc:
The problem is, this may be like their Black Friend. They will launch a vocal and hearty ‘fuck you’ at the liberals who were proved right when Bush (and by extension all conservatives) were proved wrong, but they may still not want to go through THAT again when when Georgy Porgey is put in front of them. Let’s face it, the Republican Party is almost defined by this kind of dishonest, id-level thinking.
Jewish Steel
@Amir Khalid: Looks like the Libertarians tried to purge him. Unsuccessfully.
Sol Invictus! The unconquered sun!
Trollhattan
@Peale:
When one combines Florida Man and Libertarian one never knows what’s going to emerge. Holy shit.
Bet there’s a spot for him in the Rand Paul campaign.
schlemazel
@Frankensteinbeck:
Yeah, if one or more of the others Bozo’s still on the bus by NC were smart they would put up some ads with editorial and blog posts from well liked cons that labeled W as a closet liberal after he left office. It was pretty obvious they had to try to whitewash that stain & they chose to call W “liberal”. Now would be a good time to drag those back out.
Of course I see the error in my plan, I used “smart” in the same sentence as the gooper field without a negative so that pretty much means it’ll never happen.
Gin & Tonic
@benw: Which debates will be pitting Obama against Jeb?
JPL
@Jewish Steel: David Cameron wants to know if there was any hanky-panky with the goat.
rikyrah
The thought that anyone would NEED Shrub to campaign for them…
it’s quite frightening.
Jeb is ‘ the smart one’?
benw
@Gin & Tonic: Sssh. Don’t spoil my fun.
Ryan
It does fit with what we’ve seen from Jeb! so far.
kindness
The only way Jebbie! gets elected is if:
2) 5 Conservative Supreme Court Justices name Jebbie! President disregarding precident and settled law in doing so.
BC in Illinois
Think of how triumphantly George W. was received at the 2008 Republican Convention, at then end of his presidency, and then how enthusiastically he was received in 2012, after four years of Obama.
Oh, wait . . .
Cluttered Mind
@Trollhattan: I was thinking he’d be served for Thanksgiving, personally.
Ruckus
@rikyrah:
As someone up thread pointed out this is probably throw shit at the wall and see what sticks. He is doing so badly now he pretty much only has one direction to go besides out and has nothing else to try. IOW I see this as a last ditch ploy, nothing more. It’s short sighted but then that’s as far ahead that conservatives can see in the forward direction.
Ecks
oil is thicker than blood.
Frankensteinbeck
@Ryan:
That is true. It’s probably not even a campaign strategy, per se. Jeb seems to have a powerful dose of entitlement and aristocrat arrogance. Witness his undisguised anger when a reporter dared ask him if maybe he didn’t really mean to say ‘stuff happens.’ I believe that he believes that the Bushes are naturally right about everything, George was the greatest president ever, and only stupid proles might not know that everything George did and all of George’s positions were perfect and correct, because a Bush did them.
MomSense
@Major Major Major Major:
R2R was boasting about the size of Jeb’s cash haul. The rest of us were either drunk or so punchy from watching 3 hours of Republican debate BS that somehow this became really funny to us.
Ruckus
@Frankensteinbeck:
True this. Ain’t nothing but a family thing.
Matt McIrvin
@Frankensteinbeck:
On the other hand, they also all believe that Obama makes GWB look great by comparison, and that this is so obvious to anyone with any sense that it hardly needs explaining.
dexwood
My clueless, asshole brother-in-law thought Georgie was the greatest president ever for eight years. Enter Obama and the BiL joins up with the Tea party and now calls Georgie a Socialist. My jaw dropped when I heard him say that. I asked him if he had any, fucking idea what he was talking about and received talking point gibberish in return. I had to leave the room once I was done laughing.
Frankensteinbeck
Hey, does anybody know where to find the video of Jeb:( getting angry at the reporter who challenged his ‘stuff happens’ remark? My Google Fu is weak, and failed me. It really should be required watching for anybody who wants to know what kind of man Jeb:( is.
FlyingToaster
FWIW, ¿Jeb? is all over the broadcast airwaves in morning drivetime here in Boston (NH market); switching channels yesterday morning netted me 2 Jeb ads, a Hillary ad, and the weather (thank goodness!).
Another Holocene Human
@Ruckus: My great aunt (on my mom’s side) worked for an oil company and despite W’s questionable record in that business or any business, had met him personally and thought he was a great guy. Hank Hill said W lacked a firm handshake but I’d bet anything his handshake is on fleek. Shallow Midwestern people put way to much on handshakes.
My aunt was a good aunt to me and all that but even my mother, who had been close to her all her life, got fed up with her during her final illness because she’d come out with statements like “Northern Baptists don’t believe in judging people” and then she’d proceed to judge total strangers all day long.
Another Holocene Human
@Trollhattan: I know, it was a goofy photo! But then this GOPer business owner started bragging about putting the billboard up!
Another Holocene Human
@Amir Khalid: Ave Sol Invictus! Splitter!
SiubhanDuinne
@benw:
Oh would that it were so.
jl
GW can present himself to people in a way that is not repellent, so desperate as this idea is, there may be some sense to it.
If Jeb? is the best candidate to face in the general, not sure how he has the political, or personality, or intellectual skills to stay in the race long enough. But if he can last it out with his money and influence, and a disgusted and dispirited and contentious GOP convention spits him out as the nominee, that would be nice.
Looking about as likely as Pelosi being he next Speaker: possible if enough GOP dysfunction, but very unlikely.
Hoodie
Nothing says “I care” like sending W to a flooded area. BTW, it is starting to become apparent just how much the Trump phenomenon royally screwed up the plan for JEB!, which was to carefully avoid early exposure of JEB!’s shortcomings and stage-manage him into the nomination. The W ploy may simply be a desperate attempt to get attention now that Trump, Carson and Fiorina have grabbed the limelight. Makes you wonder if the GOP is really up a creek, cause Rubio ain’t much of a fallback. They may have reached the Sharon Angle/Todd Akin moment of absurdity at the presidential level.
Anoniminous
UNLIMITED BRINK’S BENJAMIN CORPORATE TRUCKS CASH!!!!
(Now to read the thread)
jl
@Anoniminous: Meg!!
Matt McIrvin
@Hoodie: They may be hoping that Obama badly screws up the flood relief.
Another Holocene Human
@rikyrah: *snort*
ET
To time this speaks volumes about what they think internally about JEB’s campaign. If they are in so much trouble that bringing in Bush 41 sounds like a good idea then they must really see that they are in trouble.
Another Holocene Human
@Matt McIrvin: What screwed up flood relief? Trent Lott’s house got rebuilt and 1/3 to 1/2 of Black NOLA remains scattered.
Mandalay
@Another Holocene Human:
Indeed. Even a complete idiot realizes that the real way to get the measure of a man is to look him in the eye. You can get a sense of his soul.
VOR
I still see cars with Bush/Cheney 04 bumper stickers, even cars much newer than 2004. So there is still a lot of pride in that vote among the base. I don’t see McCain/Palin 08 or Romney/Ryan 12 bumper stickers.
Mike in NC
@VOR: There’s a guy in our development who put a large Romney bumper sticker on the rear window of his pickup truck. Still keeps it parked at the end of the driveway where it can be seen by all passing cars. He must be so proud.
Trollhattan
$20B proposed settlement with BP. Evidently it must be approved by a judge to go forward. The sum includes monies already spent.
rikyrah
You can’t get a Native American Scholarship at Dartmouth without producing the receipts.
So, how can you get a teaching position there without doing so?
……………………………
‘Pretendian’: Meet Susan Taffe Reed, the ‘Native American’ Rachel Dolezal
Dartmouth announced Thursday that Reed, its newly hired Native American Program director, would no longer be in that position after several tribal officials and Dartmouth alumni argued that she was not Native American.
Posted: Oct. 2 2015 8:08 AM
Stop me if you’ve heard this before.
Woman hired into a top-level position for a job with heavy racial focus is let go after people protest whether said woman is, in fact, being truthful about her race.
On Thursday, Dartmouth announced that newly hired Native American Program Director Susan Taffe Reed, who claimed she was part Native American and European, would no longer be in that position after several Native American tribes and Dartmouth alumni questioned her ancestry and tribal affiliation, the Valley News reports.
According to the news site, Reed claimed she was president of the Eastern Delaware Nations and, the Wall Street Journal notes, that one of her roles at the Ivy League college was to have used her position to help Native American students adjust to college life.
On Sept. 11, Dartmouth announced Reed’s new position. Tribal officials and Dartmouth alumni immediately began protesting and questioning Reed’s qualifications, noting that Eastern Delaware Nations is a nonprofit group that acknowledges it isn’t a tribe, and saying that Reed was misrepresenting herself as part American Indian.
“I personally have no problem with a non-Indian getting the job on her own merits,” Keely Squirrel Denning, a Shawnee tribe member, told the Valley News. Denning researched Reed’s origins and told the news site that her grandparents were part of the Eastern Delaware Nations but that they appear to be Irish immigrants.
Denning called Reed’s misrepresentation a “slap in the face,” the Valley News reports.
According to the Wall Street Journal, many Native American Dartmouth alumni consider the Eastern Delaware Nations to be a group of “pretendians,” made up of many members who are not affiliated with any tribes.
http://www.theroot.com/articles/news/2015/10/_pretendian_meet_susan_taffe_reed_the_native_american_rachel_dolezal.html
BruceFromOhio
I attempted to use the Underpants Gnomes Analogy to explain to a conference table full of colleagues why I thought a particular idea was not well thought out. One guy got it (and started laughing) while the rest looked at me like I had just grown a third arm, or an extra head. Or both.
When reaching for that particular analogy, I have to preface it with, “Any South Park fans here?” As often as not, that also gets the third-arm-second-head reaction, but at least I can discard the UGA in favor of something more accessible.
We will probably recognize this as a total desperation move that careens The Jebster into insignificance, or recoil in horror that, Gaia help us, it improves his polling and he stays in to the bitter, wretched end.
BruceFromOhio
@dmsilev: That was hilarious. I’d love to see that added to the rotating tag lines.
Brinks trucks. Full of cash. Backing up.
benw
@SiubhanDuinne:
I’m not OPPOSED to a third term…
Edited for cut and paste fail.
Gin & Tonic
@Mike in NC: Came across a bundle of mint-condition “GOLDWATER in ’64” bumper stickers in an antique shop over the weekend. They were a bit more than I’d have cared to spend, but I thought about it.
Sad_Dem
@schrodinger’s cat:
You are not alone in thinking so. He’s a grownup with a trust fund–he can tell his mom and her pals no.
boatboy_srq
@VOR: There are still a bunch of R/R ’12 bumper stickers in NOVA. Then again, there are plenty of Gillespie and Cuccinelli bumper stickers as well, not to mention the Gadsden license plates.
The only thing about the GOTea primary is that there’s a non-zero chance that one of these a##hats will be [s]elected pResident.
Redshift
@dexwood: “Liberal” and “socialist” are just epithets to conservatives; the fact that they have actual meanings is irrelevant. Shrub failed conservatism, so he is liberal or socialist, depending on the day of the week. Except for the days when he’s a hero who was a complete success, and the librul media is just lying about him. Or the days when he’s only considered a failure because traitorous libruls were all that kept True Conservative policies from being a huge success.
Joel
In terms of winning over the primary electorate, this is most certainly not a gaffe.
The fact that Dubya was (and remains) a bumbling asshole is a huge benefit.
Mandalay
@Trollhattan:
I have no idea whether that figure is too high, too low or about right, but it is worth putting it in context. Assuming that $20 billion is the final figure, that would be about $5 billion less than their profits in 2012. No biggie in the scheme of things.
From a financial perspective a low oil price for years hurts BP far more than messing up the Gulf of Mexico.
Trollhattan
@Mandalay:
Agree, and don’t know where to find any sort of accounting of total spent, from incident response to stopping the gusher to cleanup response to death and injury settlements, etc. I’d imagine whatever toll the federal government exacts there are still plentiful civil actions coming. Transocean and Haliburton are also on the hook for their roles.
Just a speedbump for BP.
Frankensteinbeck
@Mandalay:
I don’t know. Losing four fifths of a year’s profits to fines won’t kill them, but it would cause most company boards to run around screaming and waving their arms in the air.
Patricia Kayden
@Joel: A huge benefit to Secretary Clinton, that is.
@BruceFromOhio: I assume Jeb! will stay in the race to the bitter end even if his polls don’t improve. My understanding is that he has loads of $$$ from donors that he has to breeze through.
@rikyrah: Claiming Native American ancestry appears to be a sticky issue. Unfortunately, I’ve come across people who claim it just so that they don’t come off as racist, i.e., my granddad is part Cherokee so no way is the racist thing I did/said racist. Similar to claiming a Black friend.
mclaren
Genius.
This just keeps getting better and better.
Can someone convince Jeb to get Dick Cheney to do a series of commercials for him…?
And to kick off his primary campaign in New Hampshire, Jeb really needs to do a satirical campaign video in which he searches around a replica of the Oval Office for GDP growth as a result of Republican economic policies. “I know it has to be here somewhere,” Jeb can giggle while he crawls around on all fours under the replica of the president’s desk…
mclaren
@Kylroy:
This is the fundamental problem any Republican nominee will face in the general election this year. The 2001-2009 maldaminstration of the Drunk Driving C-Student and his torturer sidekick was such a clusterfuck garbage fire fail parade that even Republicans (!) can’t back Dubya’s crazy policies (remember when they asked the Repub primary candidates if they’d invade Iraq today knowing what they know now? Not one of ’em said yes…except Jeb).
But this creates a fatal antinomy for the Republican primary candidates. They cannot repudiate the Drunk Driving C-Student’s maladministration without alienating the Republican base…but if they do embrace the 8-year Reign of Error of the Drunk Driving C-Student and his torturer sidekick, they repel non-movement-conservative-27-percenter voters so utterly that they can’t possibly win the general election.
I don’t see a way around this. The next president will be a Democrat. Guaranteed. The only question now is: which Democrat?
C.V. Danes
All I know is…you can’t get fooled again!
Cervantes
@dmsilev:
Not enough bold text.
Mandalay
@Frankensteinbeck:
To be clear, the actual fine (for violating the Clean Water Act) was only $5.5 billion, and the remaining ~$14.5 billion was for the actual cleanup.
The DAILY PROFIT (not revenue) of BP in 2012 was over $68 million, so that fine was equivalent to the profits they made over just 80 days. It looks like BP got off with a slap on the wrists from the Justice Department.
If the board of BP was waving their arms in the air it was probably because they were dancing a jig of joy.
mai naem mobile
Have DumbDumb campaign for you in the state that just got a 500 year flood. Awesome because nobody is going to be reminded of Katrina. Well, they are Republicans I guess.
mclaren
@Frankensteinbeck:
That’s not quite correct. The Republican base loves the Drunk Driving C-Student (and his torturer sidekick), and they loved his policies. Moreover, the American people in general still strongly support most of W’s policies, including the misbegotten War On Terror and the crazy tax cuts, as well as torture. Look at the polls: 60% of Americans now support torture. A majority of American support the insane endless unwinnable foreign wars. Even the suicidal tax cuts are still popular.
The problem is that during W’s tenure, he defiantly ignored and flouted observable reality, and the based loved him for this — stuff like giving the presidential medal of freedom to Wolfwoitz for fucking up Iraq made the Republican base orgasm. Sneering “I’m the decider” made the Republicans swoon. This became a problem, though, after 2009, when reality brutally intruded into the epistemically closed bathysphere of the Republicans’ sequestered reality. The 2009 economic crash and the Iraq clusterfuck made it impossible to completely ignore the real world.
But the Republican base isn’t really angry at W, so much as enraged at reality. The Republican base really truly feels betrayed by reality. Why did the economy have to crash? Must’ve been Obama, somehow… Why did Iraq have to turn into such a fuckup? Well, that’s okay, since we’re back in that tarpit now…
You get the strong feeling that Republican base got jarred awake by uncomfortable reality in 2009 and as the years pass and the economy gets better and the endless unwinnable foreign wars drone on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on and on until everyone starts to forget both the 2009 financial meltdown and the colossal clusterfuck that was the Iraq invasion of 2003, the Republican base is now starting to feel comfortable with W’s presidency again.
The delightful old amnesia has set in and not just Republicans but everyone no longer feels the horror of the Drunk Driving C-Student’s stumbling bumbling fumbling bungling presidency as keenly as they once did. So Repubs are starting to feel like…sure! Why not start reviving W’s memory and praising him again? He was misunderstood! He was a visionary!
Trouble is, that just rips the scab off the wounds from the W years for everyone else, and brings up all that old rage and disgust and resentment.
So the Republican attitude is much more complicated than everyone is making out. The Repub base really does love W. It’s just that the Republican base is at war with reality, and reality recaptured a lot of ground from movement conservatives in 2009 with a major offensive. Republicans are still reeling and smarting from that temporary setback, and they’re desperately hoping it’ll go away soon.
Frankensteinbeck
@Mandalay:
I am confused. You just said above that their yearly 2012 profit was $25 billion, IE, $5 billion more than $20 billion. Losing a couple of month’s profit would be a big difference from ten month’s.
catclub
@Mandalay: The thing I hate is that the fine will probably be spread over many years.
I seem to not remember this being offered to ordinary citizens when they are fined. Maybe the citizens of East St Louis.
I will also note that the Louisiana wetlands reclamation plan is $50B over 50 years, and there seems to be no chance of getting that money, except some will come from the BP settlement. OTOH, $15B was spent over 9 years on New Orleans levee repair.
catclub
@mclaren:
when GWBush was at 23% approval, Cheney was at 11%, probably below pus-filled boils, in popularity.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@benw: Yes that’s exactly what it is. W’s still way more popular with the base than he has any right to (or makes any sense in a sane world), and a lot more popular with the base than JEB? W is very unpopular with Democrats and independents though, so he’s not really a long term asset, but JEB can’t afford to think about the long term because he’s facing the death of his campaign in the short term.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
@mclaren: Obama has done a pretty good job of getting Dick Cheney to come out of the woodwork to say very stupid things in public on a fairly regular basis. My guess is he’ll continue to do that as a service to his party.
Not That Guy
Nut, meet shell. This is the nub of where we are.
? Martin
@Frankensteinbeck: Free cash flow is probably what you need to look at, rather than profits. BPs had $6B last year, but was negative the two years prior.
Profits don’t account for capital expenditures, which are significant for an oil company. Neither accounts for depreciation which is also significant.
So, you could get the fine fairly quickly if you eliminated the company’s ability to buy/replace equipment, buy new leases, pipelines, whatever. That may or may not be reasonable to ask for – it depends. Some companies will absolutely fail without those expenses, others won’t, but in either case they are usually part of long-term fiscal planning so cutting them off immediately is painful.
That said, the company would have two other avenues to raise that cash – either issue stock and dilute current investors, or issue bonds. I’m fine with either, TBH. Investors deserve to get fucked a bit when the company they own fucks up like this so diluting them is fine – though that’s pretty much taboo for BP to propose, and with bond rates as low as they are, I see no problem asking the company to just borrow the money – again better to dilute BPs future earnings than to dilute taxpayers by carrying dilution due to inflation.
But to be clear, there’s probably exactly one company that could pay that fine out of cash so let’s not go so far as to think that most companies have a giant pit full of $100s that they could dip into. Remember, the US government bailed out GM for $30B because no corporation or bank had that kind of cash they could put out there quickly.
Mandalay
@Frankensteinbeck: Your comment “Losing four fifths of a year’s profits to fines won’t kill them” made it seem that the fine was $20 million, but it was only $5.5, with the remaining $14.5 for cleanup.
So they lost about 80 days of 2012 profits to fines, and about 211 days of profits to cleanup.
Nitpicking I suppose, but I’m sure that there are significant tax implications for BP between paying a fine and paying for cleanup. In fact the way BP finance the whole thing will probably be enormously complex. I just cherry picked a few numbers to show that in the scheme of things neither the fine nor the clean up were massive issues for BP. Non trivial certainly, but hardly earth shattering.
realbtl
Ya know though I seldom comment I’ve been around here since John was a “reasonable conservative voice” or whatever it was led me here and I’ve got to say that mclaren is the most perplexing commentator I’ve seen. It’s almost like there is a random comment feature which about 90% of the time spits out pure gibberish but the other 10% (YMMV) just absolutely nails it. I iz confuzzled.
But keep it up mclaren, I always enjoy your posts.
daniel
@realbtl:
One could say the exact same thing about David Brooks, which says a lot more about Brooks than it does about Mclaren.
Re Jeb(!), I’m becoming convinced the bar is getting lower and lower for that whole bit about ‘the smarter Bush brother’.
Felonius Monk
Dumb and Dumber!
LABiker
W is campaign gold in the republican primary, especially in crazification strongholds like South Carolina, but he’s toxic in the general, so I’m happy to see him up there on stage withJeb.
mclaren
@realbtl:
Can you give a specific example (with citation) of the “pure gibberish”?
I’m genuinely curious.
john fremont
@mclaren: Yep. I have coworkers and family members that think W was pretty good. When asked about the Crash of 2008, that was Barney Frank’s fault along with the Community Reinvestment Act of 1977? The Surge worked. I always remind them, not according to the stated objectives.The Patriot Act kept us safe. Bush let the Assault Weapons Ban expire. New Orleans was lost due to the dependence of those people on the fed Government and the incompetence of the state government of Louisiana, not because of anything W did. All of the negative stuff going on now is due to Obama. This is what I’ve heard for the last six years.
redshirt
@mclaren: I think some people disagree with you and call your points gibberish. I hope no one thinks you type gibberish, because you are always well spoken.
mclaren
Provocative (and, I think, largely accurate) article in The New York Times Review of Books about the new book by two Nobel economics laureates, harshly criticizing current economic theory:
Source: “Why Free Markets Make Fools of Us,” The New York Review of Books, 22 October 2015.
(Yes, I am aware that Cass Sunstein has a long and invidious record as enabler of some of the worst neoliberal economic atrocities, as set forth in the despicable book “Nudge,” which proposes instead of direct forceful government actions to relieve social problems, namby-pamby taxes and incentives — the worst kind of retreat from true progressive reform, and a grotesque capitulation to the neoconservative delusion that everything in life can be measured in terms of money, and the great god The Market can never be challenged or changed by laws. But in this case, the message seems more important than the messenger, who is corrupt and untrustworthy, but whose review in this particular case seems accurate.)
mclaren
@redshirt:
This is my sense of these kinds of criticisms as well. As evidence, whenever I’ve asked people to specifically cite examples of my “incoherence” or my “gibberish,” the result is always dead silence. No specific examples are ever given. No citations from any of my posts come up.
I’d go farther.
It seems to me that the catastrophically bad K-12 educational system in America has, ever since Reagan’s maladministration, emphasized “conform and obey” over “learn to think critically.” Critical thinking requires weighing the evidence, but also a strong willingness to go against the groupthink consensus — provided that the preponderance of logic and evidence supports that conclusion.
The vast majority of commenters on this forum (like the vast majority of voters) seem to me comfortable only when they form part of a herd where everyone else agrees with the common unwisdom. This works pretty well in periods like early 2009, when events made it so obvious that the Republican policies were a disaster, and Obama’s campaign rheotric so clearly spelled out what was wrong and what steps needed to be taken to correct America’s problems, that all Democrats could agree. Everyone felt comfortable. Everyone in the Democratic caucus got alone.
As time passed, and it became clear that Obama was not living up to his campaign rhetoric in many ways, criticisms of Obama’s policies started to make the commenters here uncomfortable. Indeed, when someone like me pointed out repeatedly that Obama’s basic policies differed from George W. Bush’s basic policies only in minor details like gays in the military, gay marriage, maternity leave for working mothers, gun control, government’s responsibility to vaccinate citizens, etc., commenters on this forum came unglued. They called me all kinds of name. I was “insane,” “demented,” In need of therapy,” “ranting and raving,” and so on.
Yet the evidence proves overwhelming: Obama has continued George W. Bush’s suicidal Global War On Terror, even expanding it with a secret kill list and drone strikes, even assassinating U.S. citizens without a trial or even accusing them of committing a crime (something Bush himself never dared to do).
See Atty. Gen. Holder’s despicable unconstitutional claim in a public speech that firing a hellfire missile at a U.S. citizen without a trial constitutes “due process.” See also Obama’s failed and grotesque effort to claim that “we can create a constitutional framework” for extraordinary rendition (AKA kidnapping U.S. citizens without trial and hurling ’em into a dungeon forever, without access to lawyers) when it clearly violates the 8th amendment.
For Obama’s discgraceful speech, see Rachel Maddow’s 26 May 2009 show, highlighting Obama’s frantically futile efforts to ennoble the atrocity of the 2013 Defense authorization bill he signed containing a provision to allow the president to indefinitely detail (AKA kidnap and hurl into a dungeon forever without trial) U.S. citizens.
Also see the article “Eric Holder: Drone Strike To Kill U.S. Citizen On American Soil Legal, Hypothetically,” Huffington Post, 3 May 2013.
See also the appalling article “Secret ‘Kill List’ Proves a Test of Obama’s Principles and Will,” The New York Times, 29 may, 2012 (a headline so bizarrely totalitarian that it seems more like a description of Pol Pot’s atrocities than of a U.S. president — seriously, what the FUCK is going through a newspaper editor’s head when s/he pens a headline suggesting that when the president starts murdering his own citizens illegally without a trial or charges, this is somehow a macho tests of the president’s “will”…?)
I could go on. Obama signed off on extending Bush’s tax cuts for the rich. Obama refused to order Attny. Gen. Holder to prosecute any of the Wall Street financial crime lords who trashed the economy with their massive criminal frauds. Obama has adamantly sent his DOJ i to defend the worst and most indefensible Bush-era unconstitutional atrocities, from warrantless wiretapping to massive NSA snooping to extraordinary rendition to prosecuting whistleblowers who reveal crimes by the U.S. government.
Obama has prosecuted more whistleblowers than all over presidents put together. John Kirkiakou, the CIA guy who revealed the CIA’s torture program, went to prison at Obama’s behest — but the CIA torturers never went to prison. Obama did that. Not Bush. Not Cheney.
When I cite these specific documented examples of all the ways Obama has betrayed the people who elected him and acted in ways wholly contrary to what he campaign on, the Balloon Juice commentariat just goes berserk. They hurl monkey feces at me. Wild accusations. Crazy insults. I’m told I have “butt rabies” — but no one ever disputes my facts or my logic. No, I’m just “insane” and “spewing gibberish”…because now I disagree with the commenters who have gotten ground up and spat out by the American educational system, and taught to think and act like prison inmates, to “obey and conform” no matter what.
The fact that Bernie Sanders keeps rising in the polls provides strong evidence that what I say is true. If Obama had really hewed to his campaign rhetoric, we wouldn’t need a Bernie Sanders. But when I say this, suddenly I’m “insane” because now I make people uncomfortable by going against the Democratic party groupthink. I no longer conform and obey. Therefore, I must be cast out.
The whole process proves reminiscent of the behavior Konrad Lorenz observed among brown rats:
PaulW
Last I heard the polling among Republicans were favorable towards George W. Mind you, that’s just within the party itself: If Jeb does indeed survive to the nomination we should see Dubya get shoved back into his Undisclosed Location to avoid the general election scrutiny.
But I doubt even bringing in the congenial, always-good-for-a-backslap-and-handshake older brother is gonna save Jeb’s hide. The man himself is incapable of genuine self-promotion or enjoyment towards campaigning. He’s uncomfortable and he can’t fix himself.
Cervantes
@mclaren:
Good article. Good thing you’re calling attention to it. Thanks.
Just FYI: “The New York Times Review of Books” does not exist. It’s the New York Times Book Review, whereas the article you mention is, indeed, from the New York Review of Books.
Cervantes
@mclaren:
Some do; it’s undeniable. It may not all be content-based; some might react more to style. Glad you take it in stride (or I hope you do).
Interesting thought.
mclaren
@Cervantes:
Thank you for pointing out my error. You’re right. I incorrectly cited the source of that book review.
brantl
As unpopular as Jeb is, maybe W is more popular. Peoples’ memories are short.