The House Freedom Caucus seems nice:
Yesterday, Politico published the House Freedom Caucus “questionnaire” which it described as pushing for “House rule changes.” The document does do that. But it also does a lot more. It seeks substantive commitments from the next speaker that would effectively send the entire country into a tailspin…..
The government will run out of money on December 11. Unless additional funding is approved before that date, the government will shut down.
The House Freedom Caucus wants the next speaker to commit to not funding the government at all unless President Obama (and Senate Democrats) agree to defund Obamacare, Planned Parenthood and a host of other priorities. This is essentially the Ted Cruz strategy whichprompted at 16-day shutdown in 2013. This would now be enshrined as the official policy of the Speaker Of The House.
The House Freedom Caucus wants the next speaker to commit to oppose any “omnibus” bill that would keep the government running. Rather, funding for each aspect of government could only be approved by separate bills. This would allow the Republicans to attempt to finance certain favored aspects of government (the military), while shuttering ones they view as largely unnecessary (education, health)
Just as a reminder, the House Freedumb Caucus is roughly 40 Congress critters who hold the balance of power as long as the rest of the House Republicans believe that maintaining in-group norm of only passing major legislation with only Republican votes is worthwhile. They are the power bottoms of the House GOP caucus.
But they are not intrinsically crazy if the goal of the Freedumb Caucus is to both protect their own ass and make it less likely for a Democrat to be elected to the White House in 2016. Extraordinarily destructive and cynical, yes, but they are not completely crazy.
The first goal of assuring their own re-election for most of the HFC is achieved if they can get out of the Republican primary. Right now the Republican primary electorate is extremely pissed at the “Establishment” Republicans as those Republicans have overpromised and under-delivered (ie they could not repeal Obamacare nor impeach Obama for making them think that he would take away all of their guns due to the Democrats controlling some veto points against maximalist Republican goals). Being a Republican who the Establishment (2nd DW dimension positive) hates is a good thing in the Republican primary in R+5 or redder districts. The few HFC in D+0 or bluer districts can only win in waves or due to local idiosyncratic circumstances. They’re irrelevant as long as the rest of the HFC controls the 218th vote.
This is fairly straightforward playing to the base.
Now the second contention that I’ll make that the HFC demands for a shutdown or default or far more likely large contractionary policies increases the odds of a Republican being elected is pure political science cynicism.
Right now, the US economy is still in a liquidity trap, and its growth has been mediocre (although job growth has been decent — better than mediocre but not great). The best estimates of the multiplier effect of deficit spending in a liquidity trap is the multiplier is above one. 1% of GDP reduction in deficit spending during a liquidity trap will shrink the economy by more than 1%. The converse is true as well.
Most of the predictive models for presidential elections have a lagging economic status variable. One of the more common variables is the GDP growth for either the 1st or 2nd quarter of the election year. If that GDP growth number is at or above average, the incumbent party gets a boost. If that number is below average or shrinking, the challenging party gets a boost. The bigger the absolute deviation, the bigger the net swing.
If there is a major debt fight in November and December whose resolution or near simultaneously but in no way shape or form linked to the resolution independent bill leads to half a percent or more of GDP reduction in government spending and transfer payments, the first quarter of 2016 will see an ugly GDP number as a multiplier increases the damage to the economy. It might not tip the country into a recession as the underlying “trend” growth rate may have been 2% or 3% so it would only be a reduction from that “trend” rate (yes, this is serious counterfactual thinking) but it would make the quarter worse than it has to be.
A truly bad 1st quarter of 2016 is amazing news for any Republican candidate who survives the shit show of the primary season. It would establish an electorate that may hate the Republicans but is dissatisified with the economy. The fundamentals would lean red even if their nominee is repulsive. This has worked as the great Republican insight of the past twenty years is that fundamentals (and map making) overpower competence and dominates assumed norms on blame. Responsibility is a sucker’s best and it is often advantageous to be cynical as hell as voters suck at properly attributing blame and thus can’t punish cynicism.
So, from the institutional point of view of members of the House Freedumb Caucus, a shutdown fight and the threat to default is extremely advantageous as it protects them in the next primary and increases the probability that they can achieve their policy and posturing goals in 2017 as an ally would occupy another critical veto point.
Cluttered Mind
What I find amusing is that if it were possible to elect a Speaker through plurality, Nancy Pelosi would be Speaker right now. She’s got more votes solidly lined up than any Republican does at the moment, by a large margin. I wonder how long it will take before the media realizes that the only “adult in the room” ready to take charge is Pelosi. Actually never mind, I don’t wonder. I know it’ll never happen.
JPL
Ben Carson was asked about the Debt Ceiling and he gave his normal nonsensical answer. A decent follow-up would have been what bills go unpaid?
Since the interviewer was Andrea Mitchell there was no follow-up.
JMG
I believe Obama learned his lesson in 2011 and will act unilaterally as regards the debt ceiling if he has to. Also, don’t forget that the ultra wealthy sponsors of many of these folks have more to lose from sharp drops in financial asset prices which would be the first reaction to a
“debt crisis.”
schrodinger's cat
So you are saying that the Freedom Caucus can hold the Republican party hostage, the country hostage and win.
jl
” voters suck at properly attributing blame and thus can’t punish cynicism. ”
In normal times this is true. And it is true because the GOP con game has been expert at covering its tracks and misdirection. That will be much harder to pull off when the House Freedom Caucus is acting so crazy it forces its way into the news, and its members are on the rooftops screaming their demands and rejoicing at the destruction.
It especially won’t work for elections that are run on a statewide basis, which means it especially won’t work for presidential election and Senate.
I mean, it might work, but I think important to recognize that what is happening right now is not out of the usual GOP cynical political con play book that has worked in the past. I think there is less chance that it will work for statewide elections in 2016 than GOP electoral history indicates.
Jimmyjames
Freedom . . . from reason. Or at least from the last shreds of any scruples.
jl
In other words, a three card monte street corner con does not work as well when the con person is a lunatic who keeps bragging to the marks what he is doing, and then he goes into crazed fugue states and does stuff at random.
Richard Mayhew
@schrodinger’s cat: Only as long as the rest of the House Republican Caucus believes it is in their collective best interest to only pass legislation with at least 218 Republican votes so the Democrats are superflous. As soon as that calculations breaks down, (and it has repeatedly, as Boehner would count on 150 to 180 Democratic votes and 50 to 90 Republican votes to get important things done), the Freedumb Caucus becomes functionally irrelevant to policy making.
Seanly
While a bad economy in 1st & 2nd quarter 2016 would usually indicate trouble for the incumbent party, I think that many voters would harbor resentment against the party who made it happen.
Baud
@JMG:
No. This is Congress’s responsibility. Let’s not muddy the waters by bringing Obama into it.
Peale
@schrodinger’s cat: If that’s the case, we might as well just call it a day and rewrite the constitution. We already have so many veto points in the system, we might as well formalize the requirement that the freedom caucus gets to over-promise its constituents and when it does, we just give them what they want.
Face
So…..less than 10% of one half of one branch of the US Govt can effectively destroy the entire nation. Got it. Great set of Reps we elected there.
Gunna need to short the market, oil prices, home building, etc.
jl
@Richard Mayhew: I think Boehner did just that, and used his ability to break the Hastert rule if in best interests of GOP to cage some marginal GOP House votes. That kind of thing is the usual cynical GOP coon game, what is going on now is not.
Southern Beale
I think the idea that a government shutdown is good news for Republicans is extremely delusional.
schrodinger's cat
@Face: Not just this country. Debt limit shenanigans can potentially wreck the economy and cause a global catastrophe.
germy shoemangler
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/wikipedia-page-for-kevin-mccarthy-altered-to-include-allegation-of-affair-with-congresswoman/
Richard Mayhew
@Southern Beale: how did the 2014 elections turn out after the 2013 shutdown?
It did not seem to hurt the GOP as they did well in seats up to about D+4/D+5
germy shoemangler
jl
Meet Mr. ‘RINO’ Ryan.
Unbelievable. Part of GOP con is getting media to cooperate with the story line. The media people aren’t that bright and not all that quick on their feet, and will have a hard time spinning pure crazy and incoherence. And the media news actor divas won’t play if it threatens their personal prestige and viewership (their ‘Q rating’ I think is the industry buzzword I read about some time ago).
Surprise! Some Hardliners Aren’t Sold On Paul Ryan For Speaker
http://talkingpointsmemo.com/dc/paul-ryan-conservative-concerns
D58826
That is truly a depressing analysis. Correct but depressing none the less. In addition even under the best of economic circumstances, and without any attempts at sabotage, the economy does go into recession on occasion. This expansion has been going on since, what 2010, so a downturn in 2016, however short and mild, would not be surprising. It would be one more drag on the democrats.
germy shoemangler
The Daily Beast: GOP to Paul Ryan: You’re Our Only Hope!
schrodinger's cat
@jl: Who does the Dictator Caucus want as the speaker?
jl
@Richard Mayhew: You have to figure in midterm turnout and associate demographics.
I’m not saying you are wrong, just this is not the standard GOP cynical political game, and unexpected results may occur in a presidential election year. Especially if Sanders builds a successful grassroots movement and tries to use it, whether he gets the nomination or not.
jl
@schrodinger’s cat: I’ll fly to DC and make a pitch, see if I can get their backing.
Patricia Kayden
So I guess we can expect a government shutdown in December. Fine. We’ll survive. I just hope the Democrats in Congress hold tough and President Obama continues to be his calm self.
No defunding of Planned Parenthood or diminishing of Obamacare. Stand tough.
schrodinger's cat
@jl: I am sure you will do a better job than Paul Ryan.
Brandon
It’s a mess of their own creation through aggressive re-districting and gerrymanding following the advice of Karl Rove and his “permanent Republican majority” nonsense. I suspect the law of unintended consequences follows that the logical outcome of this effort is the formal break-up of the Republican Party into two groups: the cruel and the nuts.
Anoniminous
@Richard Mayhew:
2014 was a Post WW 2 low voter turn out: 36.2%. Democrat leaning voter participation evaporated. That won’t happen in 2016. We should be back at within the “usual” 50-60% for presidential elections. Thus, using 2014 to predict 2016 is like comparing pears and apples; yeah they are both pomes BUT …
schrodinger's cat
Just because their 2013 shutdown did not impact their electoral chances in 2014 it does not mean it will happen again.
Patricia Kayden
@JMG: If President Obama can act unilaterally on the debt ceiling, he definitely should so do. Supposedly he’s a lame duck so there’s really nothing Republicans can do to him anymore.
schrodinger's cat
I was thinking that this particular problem would not happen in a parliamentary democracy. If the party in power loses the vote of no confidence then fresh elections need to be called. Usually the disruptive party gets their just desserts in such an election.
JPL
Peter King has appealed to Boehner to raise the debt ceiling. One down a few hundred to go.
kindness
I’m beginning to regret stopping doing hard drugs. And that was the 80’s.
D58826
@jl: I don’t think it matters who is elected speaker (unless it is one of the crazies) because the issue isn’t really personality it is policy and tactics driven. The ‘mainstream’ Gooper wants to bleed the government to death slowly whereas the crazies want to decapitate the government in one shot. There was an article yesterday in which the pundit suggested that Paul get an agreement from the crazies to not stand in the way of a debt limit increase and a 2016 budget deal. Why would the crazies agree to that? They already have 3 scalps (if you include Cantor). That is they only real power that they have. So no matter who is elected he/she is going to have the same problem as Boehner – the crazy agenda will not pass the White House veto and the crazies will not compromise. Any move to pass legislation with democratic votes will be viewed as treason. An we are right back where John Boehner is today.
Richard Mayhew
@Anoniminous: Agreed that mid term versus Presidential turnout patterns matter and matter a lot.
However as you said, Democratic leaning groups just did not show up at all in 2014. Under a responsibility allocating and punishment system, those are the groups that should be extremely pissed off and looking to get their pound of electoral flesh. Instead they did not show up.
BillinGlendaleCA
@Richard Mayhew: We didn’t hear much about the shutdown after the Obamacare web site rollout problems.
Richard Mayhew
@schrodinger’s cat: Completely agree, our electoral system and our structure of massively gerrymandered two stage elections in single member districts with first past the post plurality winners combined with geographic sorting of ideologies is destined to produce fucked up results.
A Parliament with way fewer veto points and an expectation of shifting coalitions would just have a different set of problems (see Belgium)
schrodinger's cat
@Richard Mayhew: I haven’t kept up with what’s happening in Belgium but I do remember that there were many general elections in India held due to the shifting alliances in the 90s and early aughts, see also Israel.
D58826
@Richard Mayhew: And now because HRC is insufficiently progressive they are feeling the Burn or pushing for Biden. Neither Sanders or Biden have a chance of winning in 2016 (well maybe if the GOP puts up Sarah). HRC isn’t perfect by a long shot but has the best chance of holding the White House in 2016. If the progressive groups sit out the 2016 election in a snit, then the GOP will control all three branches (with SCOTUS for at least another generation) and they will repeal the 21st and 20th centuries. We will be luck if they accept the 19th.
schrodinger's cat
One factor to be considered is the role of the media. Many non-politics junkies have no idea just how far gone the current set of Republicans are. It kinda gets lost in the both sides do it drumbeat of MSM. This depresses the turnout, which favors the Republicans.
Peale
@Patricia Kayden: I guess the question is whether or not he can. If it turns out he can’t then all of the debt issued is suspect. The other question is whether or not he will be held to account if he can’t. We would need a president to pardon him if it turned out he broke the law.
Shantanu Saha
Richard Mayhew says:
Anoniminious says:
Aside from the low turnout and off-year election, 2014 happened while the media and Republicans used the fustercluck of the Obamacare website rollout to negate any and all fallout from their government shutdown. The media environment went from a grudging acceptance of “these here Republicans might be suicidally crazy” to “these Democrats are are definitely and totally incompetent. Even my grandmother can build a website!” It was relentless. If the Obama administration had managed to roll out healthcare.gov without major hiccups, Democrats might still be in power in the Senate today.
ET
Is Ryan stupid or crazy enough to be held hostage on this? I don’t agree with any of his positions on pretty much everything but I can’t image that he would want the Freedom Fools Caucus to be owning his privates regardless of an agenda. I mean why would anyone sign on to be emasculated.
I definitely don’t give him too much credit he is definitely a party guy with an agenda after all, but he is a reasonably responsible person – especially for a politician and a millennial republican – but even he has to know that until Republicans control both the White House as well as the Senate and the House (and both with massive numbers they currently don’t have) that this is going to gain them absolutely nothing and may actually hurt them long term. I don’t think he is one of those that believe that creative destruction as a way to get what you want if for no other reason that he sill wants the GOP and himself to be seen as a party that is better at running government and this definitely won’t prove that.
Punchy
Good to see they’re starting with small, easily attainable goals with a high chance of sucess, well-positioning themselves to look like achievers to their constituents.
These guys make Moe, Larry, and Curly look like Feynman, Oppenheimer, and Bohr.
Anoniminous
@Richard Mayhew:
The question is, “why?”
IMO, it’s because the State parties are inbred and moribund. And the local PTB like and want it that way.
Calouste
@Richard Mayhew: Belgium is a rather extreme exception in parliamentary systems. Not only do they have the usual selection of political parties that show up in most systems that are not first-past-the-post (Christian-Democrat, Labor, Liberal, Neo-Fascist, Green, etc.), they have all of them in two flavors, Flemish and Walloon. Getting a coalition together with 5 or 6 parties is quite complicated.
And of course, despite having a care-taker government for more than a year, the government kept functioning and didn’t shut down, unlike some other country I could mention.
schrodinger's cat
@Shantanu Saha: You forgot the Ebola crisis just before the elections and crisis of the central American migrant children. Both of which were used to increase the paranoia of the electorate to 11.
Roger Moore
This is the big bullshit line. If they wanted a democratic process within their own conference, they would accept and back a candidate for Speaker who was supported by 50%+1 within the Republican caucus. Instead, they are demanding that any acceptable candidate be able to win 218 votes in their internal nominating procedure, which is close to 90%. Since they have enough votes to keep anyone below 218, that’s effectively claiming veto power over the nomination, but they sure as hell aren’t going to accept any other group within the Republican caucus having the same kind of veto power. That’s as undemocratic as you can get.
D58826
@Peale: Even if he has all the constitutional authority necessary yo act, the GOP will get some hack federal judge in Podunk to issue an injunction to stop Obama. We then have the courts involved in a constitutional crisis in addition to the financial crisis. The GOP/rightwing have show they can get the federal courts to declare a ham sandwich a sentient being with constitution rights (Hobby Lobby anyone) so this should be a slam dunk. A number of federal judges have already stopped the EPA’s environmental cleanup proposals so I don’t think this will be any different.
JPL
@schrodinger’s cat: That was with the help of the media. The MSM will give the GOP, the same type of cover, that they did back then.
Anoniminous
@D58826:
What “progressive groups” are you talking about? The Democratic Socialists of America with their mighty ~15,000 nation-wide membership?
Archon
If the Republican party gets rewarded for this maximalist type of strategy next November then this country deserves whatever the GOP has in store for us.
JPL
@ET: Ryan wants to run for higher office and is worried his name will be tarnished by being speaker. (according to twitter)
peach flavored shampoo
I vote this into the rotating tag line. Await all Schemp fans to flame me, tho.
gene108
@Seanly:
In 2010, the Democrats got the blame for the economy not improving fast enough.
I do not see how Obama and the Democrats avoid blame for Republican skullduggery. Obama is the President, which is one person to pit against a diffuse body of 535 members like Congress.
You also hav to consider right-wingers are 100% convinced tax cuts and deregulation fix everything, we just have not cut them enough.
Non-right-wingers are not sure what works, so when nothing seems to be working they probably figure nothing can ever work and get discouraged.
BillinGlendaleCA
@JPL:
That’s probably a valid concern.
Roger Moore
@schrodinger’s cat:
Their elections have produced such fragmented and uncooperative parliaments that they’ve had a great deal of difficulty forming governments. After the 2010 elections, they took almost a year and a half to put together a coalition. They were a bit faster after the 2014 elections, but it still took more than 4 months.
Patricia Kayden
@Archon: True. Unfortunately, those of us who would never vote GOP are going to suffer along with the rest of the idiots. Sigh.
I just hope that either Secretary Clinton or Senator Sanders is able to put together the voting coalition which was able to easily put President Obama into the White House twice. Our side needs to rally. We cannot let people who are so destructive get rewarded with the Presidency.
catclub
@JPL:
I am happy to call Andrea Mitchell an idiot and a tool, but no other interviewer has followed up, as far as any reports show.
The closest was Kai Ryssdal beating his head against a wall. You can hear the thumping in the interview. ;)
gene108
@Southern Beale:
Republicans in Congress poll worse than anthrax, but keep getting elected.
They have a core group of hyper-motivated rage-o-holics, who they need to keep engaged enough to vote in every election.
As long as this core group keeps voting, while most people get discouraged and stay home, there’s no way Republicans in Congress can lose.
Elie
I remember yesterday when I commented at how concerned I was about the risks to our democracy and the Constitution about this, and that it might be intentional rather than accidental mismanagement, a couple of fellow commenters thought I was being hysterical and advised me to “go take a walk”. Well, I can see that I am not the only one who is a bit anxious and concerned about how this crew will go about taking apart our government to reshape their own agenda. I tell you what, I am not about to have these hee haws do that, though right now I am not sure what I would do. I live in NW WA state in a semi-rural area populated with red staters as red as you would find in Bip Bap Georgia. I know that their tiny little brains would love to undo Obamacare and a bunch of stuff, (though I am not sure they could give you a coherent reason why except “because”). Wow, if things go as they plan, kiss your retirements and other savings goodbye, folks… Mayhew, there is no way the Republicans would not be blamed for this… sorry. Folks will be in the streets and not in a good way.
catclub
@gene108:
Well, in 2012 the Democrats did NOT get the blame for unemployment at over 8% until september. That was amazing.
So who knows. I have hope that a long slow improvement in the economy will be a tailwind.
SatanicPanic
I don’t think this is true at the Presidential level though. I just don’t see people voting for Cruz because the economy sucks.
Elizabelle
@schrodinger’s cat:
@JPL:
Paul Krugman’s column today (and thanks to benw in the morning thread for highlighting it):
It’s All Benghazi
This needs to stop. The crazies benefit from the cover the MSM provides. Maybe big media should learn from what befell the GOP establishment, which has fallen off the tiger.
raven
Pooch Selefies!
Bobby Thomson
@JMG: the plutocrats will take the short term hit. They proved that in 2013.
catclub
@Roger Moore:
No, I disagree. This is the real sticking point. They want to roll back powers of the Speaker that Newt took. so that a large minority is not shut out of chairmanships and other perks. They also want promises that the leadership will not help anyone primary THEM. So, special treatment.
Roger Moore
@gene108:
In 2010, the Democrats were nominally in charge of both houses of Congress, and for part of the time they were effectively in charge. Now, though, the Republicans are in charge of both houses of Congress and are making a lot of noise about shutting stuff down if they don’t get their way. It’s going to be much harder for them to avoid the blame for government problems than it was when they were just stalling everything the Democrats tried to do.
catclub
@raven: With that spelling of selfy, I was expecting something on Thabo Sefelosha.
catclub
@SatanicPanic: Jamelle Bouie (yes, at Slate) has revised his opinion of Cruz, and Cruz’s chances.
Facts have changed and he has changed his views. refreshing.
D58826
@Elizabelle: Big media is part of the GOP establishment. The beltway media lives and breaths the same big money air that the GOP establishment does.
SatanicPanic
@catclub: I read that. I am not sure he can win the primary, maybe he can, maybe he can’t. The general? No way. Not a chance, I don’t care what happens between now and the election.
BruceFromOhio
@Archon: I regret I have to agree with this. Wishing for electoral ponies and unicorns doesn’t do it. If enough people want to line up for the vats of cyanide-laced Kool Aid and start chugging, away we go.
it was a nice country for a while there.
Peale
@catclub: But they want to keep the ability to primary establishment candidates in safe districts like they did with Cantor. Got it.
ThresherK (GPad)
I hope this signals a lessening of the folks (not on this site) who say “We should vote in an R for 2016, that pres will screw up so badly we will the be able to rebuild anew.”
The “burn it to save it” folks don’t have to answer to market turmoil, food inspection,sending out SocSec checks, repairing rusting bridges, and renewing beer distributors’ licenses.
Amir Khalid
@catclub:
I’ll give Jamelle Bouie credit for being somewhat less obtuse than his seniors at Slate.
SatanicPanic
@ThresherK (GPad):
Hopefully the trend towards micro-brewing means that even in cases of economic turmoil we’ll still have beer.
D58826
A bit of a happy note from Huffington
MobiusKlein
@schrodinger’s cat:
And now that Ebola in the USA (and other places too) has subsided, crickets about it.
You’d think all those folks spouting their theories would come back and re-evaluate their ideas.
ha ha ha ha.
Matt McIrvin
@ThresherK (GPad): I’ve seen some commentary that goes “maybe it’d be better for us to lose this one” for every single election of sufficient note that I’ve followed. It’s an evergreen trope in counterintuitive essay-making.
Elie
— It further ocurrs to me that the Republicans will not garner much sympathy from their base with all this confusing internecine fighting. They really do just look incompetent and the MSM is not cutting them much slack on interpreting their behavior right this minute.
Previously, the administration, Nancy Smash and Harry Reid have been able to out fox them, and I am sure they are putting their heads together as this plays out again. I seriously do not believe that another government shutdown over raising the debt ceiling is going to play well for them. Pretty soon we need to start hearing what the consequences of this would be and not just from the President and other leadership, but rank and file Democrats. We have to nationalize the consequences of all upcoming elections this fall and be as bare boned in our rhetoric describing this attempted coup of the national agenda by other means. We cannot tip toe around these $^%*$^&&*&+***
raven
@catclub: I’m tired, I was up most of the night with my Lil Bit and her torn ACL. So spellcheck fodat.
Gravenstone
The “Freedumb Caucus” has gotten so bad, they actually drove my near by wingnut Congress critter to quit them yesterday.
Somewhat surprisingly, my own wingnut critter is not a member himself.
Patricia Kayden
@D58826: Politico has a nice photo gallery celebrating the First Dog’s life. Cute!!
http://www.politico.com/gallery/2015/10/bo-obama-birthday-photo-gallery-002120?slide=0
sukabi
Thought we didn’t negotiate with blackmailers & terrorists. And at this point “If you don’t agree to our demands to ruin the country” sounds a bit like something that rhymes with reason.
catclub
@SatanicPanic: If he wins the primary, he could pick Pat Buchanan as running mate.
The McCarthy twins.
catclub
@sukabi: My understanding is treason is allying with a foreign power. Sedition, though, seems right up their alley.
Lawyers? Constitution experts?
Woodrowfan
FWIW, after the 1916 elections neither major party had a majority in the house, and the repubs had two more seats than the Democrats. The Democrats, however, formed a coalition with the 3 remaining Progressive Party reps and the single Socialist to re-elect Champ Clark (D-MO) as the Speaker. That was the last time we had a coalition-elected Speaker.
the only previous one I can find is the 34th (1855-1857) which was controlled by a coalition of Democrats and American Party (aka the Know-Nothings) which was an odd alliance as the American Party was anti-Irish, anti-Catholic, both important Democratic voting blocs even then, and many Know-Nothings joined the new Republican party soon thereafter.
sukabi
@catclub: is this the same bunch that got bibi the invite to speak in front of congress against the Iran deal?
Matt McIrvin
@sukabi: What it reminds me of, again, is Paul LePage’s behavior in Maine: You don’t actually have the constitutional power to do something, but you do have the power to cause a whole lot of damage, so you figure you can achieve your goals through some kind of doomsday ultimatum.
Elie
My concern is less around having a Speaker than making sure somehow we raise the debt ceiling properly without associated blackmail. That is what I hope the administration and Democratic Congressional leadership are studying up on (probably have the research they culled from the LAST time Republicans did this). I read upstring that this could lead to a constitutional crisis if the Repubs got some court to do a restraining order on the President, but hopefully there is some way to work around the dilemma.
What a crazy crazy time this is….
liberal
@ThresherK (GPad): IMHO that’s not the real issue. The real problem with “burn it down” is that I don’t think history shows it works. AFAICT “burn it down” is likelier to move the country further to the right than to the left.
liberal
@catclub: Pat Buchanan is way too critical of Israel to fit in with the current crazies.
ET
@JPL: That is definitely part of Ryan’s calculus I would suspect. Again he does have one ounce of self preservation which is more than I can say for all of the Freedom Fools who don’t have any preservation or uncommon sense.
Tommy
I live in a very blue district. For the first time in 70 years we elected a Republican to the House. Let say that again, for the first time in 70 years.Funny thing, we’re having buyers remorse.
Roger Moore
@liberal:
I think they’re both problems. Together, they say that “burn it down and rebuild from the ashes” is buying a pig in a poke. It’s saying that we should accept all the acknowledged pain from the burning down part- the whole point is that the experience will be so bad that it convinces voters to abandon the party responsible for the damage- in exchange for the hypothetical benefit of the rebuilding part.
mclaren
The political calculus there is tricky, and far from clear.
If the Democratic presidential candidates successfully and accurately attributes the bad GDP numbers to the Republicans, things won’t go the way the Repubs expect.
Republicans in congress have a long history of miscalculating these kinds of big political moves. I would remind you that Newt Gingrich blew himself up with his effort at a similar debt ceiling showdown, Boehner is still Speaker now and will be in December (most likely) and he’s not going to go along with the HFC’s scheme, the Repubs nuked themselves with Bill Clinton’s impeachment after calculating that it would help them, and most recently Kevin McCarthy blew himself up with the Benghazi hearing that were designed to destroy Hillary Clinton.
In short, these kinds of wannabe-Machiavelli moves have a way of hoisting the Repubs on their own petard.
Frankensteinbeck
No. Let’s be clear here: This was Boehner’s bullshit decision, only and entire. Every time he allowed clean bills to come to a vote, they passed. It’s not business as usual, either. Boehner, either afraid for his job or out of hate for Obama (I get the impression of the latter), has been more obstructive than McConnell, and McConnell went full-on Southern Aristocrat ‘I won’t let that negro get above himself’ asshole the moment Obama was elected.
mclaren
@sukabi:
As a purely legal matter, treason only applies if America is at war. Get back to me when you find a declaration of war by congress.
Proving the identity of America’s “enemies” in court becomes essentially impossible without a declaration of war.
FYI, spies like the Rosenbergs were arrested and convicted on espionage charges, not treason. For this reason the treason clause in the constitution is not very useful for prosecutions, except in times of declared war.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
we heard some of that in 2000, even after, in the time between FL and 9/11 that retroactively seems almost like a sitcom, I remember talking to a friend and we both agreed, “Well, there’s no way the dumbfuck can stumble into a second term.”
Remember Karen Hughes, the idiot princeling’s nanny? I remember she had a way of always seeming to say, “He really isn’t dumb!” when talking about her little charge. Holding up the big books he read before deciding to end stem-cell research, “He read these! Really!” or when the Chinese captured a US plane “The President handled this crisis by asking great questions!” those great questions, as I recall: “Do they have bibles? Have they been allowed to exercise?”
Tommy
@Roger Moore: In my last comment noted my county wanted to “burn it down” and get out the Democrats. Try something new. Honestly I was kind of with them in the thinking. But things went downhill. I know no liberal or something close to a liberal that thought we’d get to where we are now.
catclub
@liberal: You are correct. I am behind the times on radical crazies.
I was blinded by the oil slicked hair.
jl
@Elizabelle:
” Maybe big media should learn ”
Big media will not learn, and they do not want to learn, since the brown-nosing corporate hacks who play journalists on TV have to genuflect to their masters.
The media can be flumoxed by material they cannot figure out how to massage and distort in the the time available for coverage in the typical news cycle. Then they will spit out something within spitting distance of the truth in order to distance themselves from garbage that is obviously unpopular and that they cannot figure out how to rehabilitate in the time avaialable. That happened with McCain and it happened with Romney, and best we can hope for is that it will happen with the House GOP clown show.
So, the silver lining is that the GOP is so intellectually bankrupt and lead by such nonentities that the public will have the privilege of watching two toxic GOP clown shows at the same time, two spectacles both hilarious and disgusting. The Congressional clown show poses a real threat to peoples’ welfare and that is complication.
For 2016, statewide elections are key, so I think watching how GOP Senate reacts might be clue to what the sad and dangerous GOP House antics mean for the 2016 pres and Senate elections.
Baud
@Tommy:
Then liberals are dumb and we should stop mocking conservatives.
Yatsuno
@catclub: Not to be that guy, but Ted does have the eligibility issue hanging over his head. He’s just not getting called on it because he’s not getting traction. If by some weird chance he were to win the pri,ary the lawsuits would start flying.
feebog
@Elie:
I have a feeling that President Obama will act unilaterally to raise the debt ceiling if the crazies get their way. A couple of things lead me to believe this; PBO has already demonstrated he has no fks to give, and the only recourse congress would have is to impeach. The Republicans are going to impeach the President because they were not willing to do their jobs? Not going to happen.
Tommy
@mclaren: What you said is just not true. You can commit treason in any number of ways and us NOT be at war.
catclub
@Yatsuno: Oh, right. He was a Canadian Citizen until 2012, 2013? [dual]
catclub
@mclaren:
What about the war on terror (named Al queda)?
jl
@feebog: I can see impeachment proceedings House, since the chance of a conviction in the Senate is approximately zero, especially over Obama acting to save the country in a financial emergency that the House itself created, or more accurately could not prevent itself from creating due to the fact that they are so nuts they cannot even organize themselves.
That would render impeachment a meaningless symbolic and self-damaging pointless waste of time and money, something that reactionary GOPers excel at, even pride themselves on.
Tommy
@Baud: Yes. I can’t stress how blue of a district I live in. I mentioned 70 years. We voteed for this guy:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PhbRcDZiJJc
schrodinger's cat
@Baud: Sssh don’t mock anybody if you want to get elected.
What Have the Romans Ever Done for Us?
The WaPo daily 202 today says Paul Ryan will be the next speaker of the House. Wonder if they ever get tired of being wrong?
I think the scenario you describe is dependent on how long a government shutdown lasts. If it lasts long enough (and how likely is the freedumb caucus to give up early this time around?) people won’t forget or forgive quite so easily. Also, there’s the counter-example of the 1995 shutdown – it also occurred in December/January before a Presidential election – 1996 – and that election didn’t go all that well for Republicans. I also think the Clinton name, should Hillary be the nominee, carries some umph when it comes to handling the economy. She might benefit from Bill’s legacy on that issue and hence be somewhat insulated from discouraging economic news.
Baud
@schrodinger’s cat:
My path to victory does run through pander city.
Calouste
@liberal: “Burn it down” works if there is not a lot left to burn for most people. One of the reasons the French Revolution took off is that the peasants thought they were going to starve, again.
Famine is unlikely to happen in the United States, but reactionary white men might want to burn things down when they feel they don’t have many privileges left to lose.
Baud
@Baud:
Doesn’t.
Roger Moore
@Calouste:
Somehow, though, I doubt that they’ll be interested in rebuilding a government that works harder to ensure equality.
schrodinger's cat
@Baud: Insults may work for the Republican base, I am not so sure that they are going to work with Dems.
Baud
@schrodinger’s cat:
We’re not talking about the Dem base. We’re talking about people who don’t bother to vote for Dems.
Mingobat f/k/a Karen in GA
@ThresherK (GPad):
I thought events after the 2000 election would have shut people like that up for at least two generations.
jl
@Baud: How does ‘Speaker Baud’ sound to you? All the commenters here will vouch for you being a little ‘different’, which may be enough for the GOP loons to think you are as crazy as they are.
After you ram through a bunch of stuff to actually get something useful done (aka break the Hastert rule into little itty bitty pieces), you are just the right person to enjoy your soon-to-come ouster, and make it a party on TV news shows.
fuckwit
It was I think the Internationale that first noted that “freedom” without equality is just privilege.
I have set up a greasemonkey script to change all instances of the word “freedom” to “White Straight Christian Male Privilege”.
It makes everything make sense!!
They’re the “House White Straight Christian Male Privilege Caucus”! It’s exactly what they are.
They’re terrified that the feminists and gays and Mexicans and blacks and liberals are out to take away their White Straight Christian Male Privilege, because that’s absolutely true!
When Shrub said “they hate us for our White Straight Christian Male Privileges”, he was completely 100% correct!
When the gun fetishists holler about needing guns and the threat of violence in order to defend their White Straight Christian Male Privilege, they’re absolutely right!
Try this simple exercise. Every time you hear a wingnut talk about “freedom”, change it, either through your web browser or mentally, into “White Straight Christian Male Privilege”. That is what they’re defending.
mclaren
@Tommy:
Please re-read what I wrote.
Committing treason and convicting someone of treason are two very different things.
Frankly, this talk about Repubs committing “treason” is empty posturing. It’s the left-wing equivalent of Ann Coulter’s rants that liberals are traitors. This kind of vacuous talk gets us nowhere.
The plain fact of the matter is that the Republicans are using perfectly legal House of representatives rules to do things Democrats don’t like. The solution is not to strut around harrumphing about “treason” but, as mentioned above, for Obama to make a procedural end run around the debt ceiling issue. Unlike the House rules that allow representatives to tack on amendments to spending bills, the debt ceiling process is entirely procedural. It’s not spelled out in the constitution. So president has a great deal of leeway in how he deals with it.
I just don’t think that bloviating about treason is a useful response here. Other responses, like the president unilaterally raising the debt ceiling, or ordering the Treasury to issue that ridiculous platinum coin, seem much more productive.
In any case, I think that Wall Street will put so much heat on the HFC if they try to push America into default on its T-bills that the HFC will turn into charcoal briquettes.
There are serious issues confronting Democrats, but the debt ceiling is not one of them. It has numerous simple solutions.
fuckwit
In case you’re curious, here’s how that excerpt reads with my substitutions:
mclaren
@feebog:
Oh, please. Pretty please. Pretty please with a cherry on top, HFC. Puh-LEASE do this!
If the House refuses to raise the debt ceiling AND tries to impeach Obama, the public will become so enraged that the House could well swing Democratic this election cycle.
Just a reminder: Congress’ current approval rating is 15%, president Obama’s current approval rating is 45%. In a pissing contest with president Obama, the House of representatives will need scuba gear.
Steeplejack (phone)
@Baud:
Flip-flopper!
jl
@mclaren: Does the House need a Speaker to initiate impeaching hearings?
Uh-oh, I smell a dilemma of world historical crisis proportions for the brave House GOPers defending the ramparts of Freedom!
But an extra cherry on top would be House GOPers yelling about impeachment if Obama had to take extreme actions while GOP could not even organize itself well enough to get the House running. That would reveal everything that people will need to know for the next election, even low info voters.
schrodinger's cat
TPM’s Josh Marshall thinks that Paul Ryan is going to be the next speaker. Thoughts?
Bart
@Calouste: Actually, we have multiple governments: a federal one, and also one for Flanders, one for Wallonia, one for the (small) German part of Belgium and one for Brussels. Note that elections for both levels (federal vs “community-level”) do not necessarily happen at the same time.
Then there’s also a provincial level (mostly useless, usually a cosy end-of-career station for politicians who can’t hack it at the national level) and of course each city also has a mayor and a council.
Note that city-level elections are also not necessarily taking place at the same date as federal or “communal” elections, though there is some push to group some of these since it can be a costly affair to organize elections every couple of months when they happen to be close together. Provincial elections are grouped with the city-level elections IIRC.
And there’s also European elections.
Note that there’s about 11 million Belgians, which is about the population of greater New York, and yet we have four levels of government and numerous politicians and administrations, all battling over who gets to be responsible over which field of governance, with an increasing tendency to move things to the communal level.
Note that to protect the French-Dutch balance there’s numerous rules in place to ensure one language group cannot screw another one.
Things get really screwy when a political party is part of the federal government but in the opposition at the communal level.
This is all a massive PITA which is costing us stupid amounts of money and results in numerous nincompoop elected officials whose incompetence thankfully never really threatens to derail the government.
But big business has a massive influence, AB InBev for instance has paid very little taxes over the years because they always threaten to move their HQ to another country. Ford also earned massive subsidies in Limburg for their plant in Genk (money the government spent to offset the jobloss due to the mines closing in that area decades ago) but when it came to it Ford still closed the Genk factory even though it wasn’t their worst performing one.
feebog
@schrodinger’s cat:
Wouldn’t be the first time Josh went out on a limb with a big ol’ saw.
SFAW
@Roger Moore:
Another thing recommending the “burn it down” idea is that it was a rationalization used by Saint Ralph the Pure after the 2000 election.
I think he was just trying to prove that he could be as respected a pundit as Bloody Bill Kristol.
May they both burn in Hell.
Geeno
@mclaren: This is why I don’t PIE people. If I was so inclined, I might pied mclaren long ago, but “In a pissing contest with president Obama, the House of representatives will need scuba gear.” makes up for a lot for of scrolled by posts.
H/t mclaren, I am SO stealing that.
Geeno
I AM XORTHAG, KILLER OF THREADS!
henqiguai
@Geeno:
Poseur.