Come for the politics, stay for the snark.

Just because you believe it, that doesn’t make it true.

DeSantis transforming Florida into 1930s Germany with gators and theme parks.

Russian mouthpiece, go fuck yourself.

We’ve had enough carrots to last a lifetime. break out the sticks.

Putting aside our relentless self-interest because the moral imperative is crystal clear.

Even though I know this is a bad idea, I’m off to do it anyway!

Republicans: slavery is when you own me. freedom is when I own you.

JFC, are there no editors left at that goddamn rag?

Elections aren’t won by handwringing, cowering, and/or bashing your own candidates.

Teach a man to fish, and he’ll sit in a boat all day drinking beer.

Can we lighten up on the doomsday scenarios?

It’s all just conspiracy shit beamed down from the mothership.

There are a lot more evil idiots than evil geniuses.

Let us savor the impending downfall of lawless scoundrels who richly deserve the trouble barreling their way.

The gop couldn’t organize an orgy in a whorehouse with a fist full of 50s.

You can’t attract Republican voters. You can only out organize them.

Relentless negativity is not a sign that you are more realistic.

If you tweet it in all caps, that makes it true!

Republicans want to make it harder to vote and easier for them to cheat.

And now I have baud making fun of me. this day can’t get worse.

Conservatism: there are people the law protects but does not bind and others who the law binds but does not protect.

This fight is for everything.

I might just take the rest of the day off and do even more nothing than usual.

We’ll be taking my thoughts and prayers to the ballot box.

You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / Late Night Open Thread: Here’s Confusion to Our Enemies (Who Are Pretty Confused)

Late Night Open Thread: Here’s Confusion to Our Enemies (Who Are Pretty Confused)

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From the Politico article:

… In 2012, both sides in the general election invested enough on television, but only one side invested enough in registering and turning out the vote. The Obama campaign registered 3 million voters (a good chunk of its national popular vote margin), and had 3,000 full-time organizers on payroll whose mission was to “organize themselves out of a job.” This meant that staffers were explicitly told not to call voters and knock on doors, and instead focus exclusively on recruiting a massive volunteer army who could do the job instead. This process of “capacity building,” as it was referred to internally (and documented extensively in Elizabeth McKenna and Hahrie Han’s academic book, Groundbreakers), allowed the Obama campaign to scale its operations an order of magnitude beyond the Romney campaign. On Election Day, the president over-performed the final polling averages by 3 points, a possible indicator that his turnout operation had done the trick.

This legacy influences the party’s 2016 hopefuls today. According to Democracy in Action, a website that uses Federal Election Committee data and press reports to track campaign structure and organization, Clinton has a staff of at least 90 in Iowa, with an additional 100 unpaid organizing fellows, and at least 17 field offices. Bernie Sanders’ Iowa staff has grown to more than 50, with 14 offices. In Democratic circles, an operation of that size is not considered a luxury available only to front-runners like Clinton, but a prerequisite for being taken seriously. Though gaps in reporting are likely, Democracy in Action reports that no Republican candidate has more than 10 full-time staff in any early voting state (not counting consultants and volunteer leaders).

These numbers speak to a stark divide in what Republicans and Democrats find valuable in campaigns. For Democrats, it’s field. For Republicans, it’s gross ratings points on TV. The Republican position might be understandable at the moment; no one wants to sink money on a big staff in a fragmented field and risk not having enough to capitalize on late momentum. (Scott Walker would probably tell you this.) But failing to invest in staff will make adjusting to the very different terrain of the general election a major challenge for Republicans once the Trump freak show ends. And, make no mistake, it is likely to end…

The Republican approach may be completely rational in a Hobbesian primary, where TV advertising can assist in defining candidates who still relatively unknown. The challenge the GOP will face is in adapting to the general election—not just message-wise, but in scaling an operation in an era of mass engagement. Many would argue that widespread mistrust of Clinton and an aversion to “Obama’s third term” should be enough to ensure a Republican victory. Such talk is political malpractice. The duty of a political campaign is to press every small advantage possible on every front, because the fundamentals of the election (the economy, or identity of the opponent) are often out of its control. Lessons forged in the parochialism of a primary may not be enough to ensure victory in the general election. Despite the obvious headwinds they may face in 2016, the two leading Democrats are at least trying to win their primary in a way that might pay dividends a year from now. Because of the primary campaigns each are running, Clinton or Sanders would be able to more easily roll over an experienced field team into a general election contest…

Field organizing is old-school and digital fundraising is new-school, but what both have in common is a philosophical commitment to building a campaign one voter and one donor at a time. Once critical mass is reached, both are perpetual motion machines for voter outreach and fundraising. This is in contrast to the emphasis on mass communications we are likely to see in the Republican primary.

For a Republican campaign engaged in the 15-way trench warfare of primary, it is easy to put off thinking about the general election until the primary is won. But by then, it might be too late. Field and digital infrastructure don’t come together overnight; unlike media buys, they must be planned and built months in advance. The deficit in campaign mechanics Republicans have faced in the past two election cycles have largely come about because of a lack of time between winning the primary and the general election…

Reader Interactions

144Comments

  1. 1.

    dmsilev

    I’m sure CNN will do everything in their power to dumb down the Democratic debate as far as possible.

  5. 5.

    danielx

    The deficit in campaign mechanics Republicans have faced in the past two election cycles have largely come about because of a lack of time between winning the primary and the general election…

    Plus there’s that whole issue with trying to switch to mere red meat after all that cannibalism.

  10. 10.

    dmsilev

    @Warren Terra: I think the proper response is to pat the governor on the head and tell him to go close some bridge access lanes; that always seems to make him feel better.

  12. 12.

    Mike in NC

    @Warren Terra: No, Kris Krispie Kreem has never been routed in reality. Merely another fat blowhard from NJ, which produces them by the thousands. But enough about our neighbors…

  13. 13.

    22over7

    Again, this fellow calls it “the Trump freak show” and seems quite confident it will end. Why? How?

  15. 15.

    jl

    @dmsilev: Too much dumbing down could be dangerous. Sanders is liable to call BS in front of the whole audience and not back off, and HRC might be in similar mood with all the garbage the media have thrown at her because some GOP operative hack whispered some BS in their ear.

    I read Anderson Cooper and Dana Bash will be moderating, and they are probably best CNN can do.

    The networks might view the Democratic debates as loss leaders for pulling in the cash from the GOP clown shows, and play them as seriously as they can (which won’t be all that serious, but hopefully good enough).

    Edit: though I will keep my expectations low as possible. I thought the Kroft interview of Obama last night was awful. Heard it will driving back into SF last night, and suddenly realized I had been screaming at Kroft for awhile, I thought I better calm down before I got in a wreck.

  16. 16.

    jl

    Though I just glanced at Kroft’s wiki bio, and it says Obama is supposed to have a high opinion of Kroft.

    Why? Not sure I believe that.

    Maybe Kroft or his interns have been editing his wiki bio?

  18. 18.

    Frankensteinbeck

    Many would argue that widespread mistrust of Clinton and an aversion to “Obama’s third term” should be enough to ensure a Republican victory.

    Damn, nobody projects more than a Village Idiot. News flash, national journalists: You are not America. America does not share your goofy Republican prejudices. And this writer is at least being sane and conceding that they can’t rely on that false narrative.

  20. 20.

    jl

    @Frankensteinbeck: In any case, I think HRC and certainly Sanders are calibrating their ceremonial distancing from Obama nicely. I don’t think the charge that they are going to be an Obama third term will be an effective attack.

    If Jeb? survives, the fear of a W third term will be foremast in most people’s minds anyway.

  21. 21.

    Omnes Omnibus

    @benw: You can’t always get what you want. But then, the Packers are 5-0 and that is what is really important.

  22. 22.

    Tenar Darell

    I’m going to NYC around the beginning of November to update my annual shots of out of town culture.

    Any suggestions for plays, or exhibits I should check out? Galleries? Moderately priced (for NYC) really good food and wine places I can take my hosts out to?

  24. 24.

    Tenar Darell

    @jl:

    If Jeb? survives, the fear of a W third term will be foremast in most people’s minds anyway.

    Is there a Jib joke in there somewhere?

  27. 27.

    FlyingToaster

    @Wag: It’s been mentioned in threads all day.

    I don’t think it’ll hit the big time until some chick gets arrested for bringing an artificial cock to class.

    I’ll try and check back in after my meeting tomorrow; someone should have been put in bracelets by afternoon.

  31. 31.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @jl:
    I don’t see any sign that Hillary is distancing herself from Obama at all. On the other hand, she definitely has her own tone. I’ve been digging it so far. I think she’ll blow people away when we get far enough in the campaign that the press can’t avoid letting people hear what she actually has to say.

  32. 32.

    Elie

    Gawd, does anyone think this shit would end if we had a Democratic President? I don’t. These folks are IN-SANE and until they are swept from office entirely, any sanity will be dearly won. Sometimes I wish Obama could run for a third term, but I am sure he is exhausted and I think its time to at least change the players. He has been sitting with a loony country and government, doing his best to represent sanity, but its taken its toll. Furthermore, our media is in worse shape than before 2008, and it was very shitty then. As hard as it is to try to do sane things, you know that the media is going to say “both sides do it”, even when they don’t and ignore the stark insanity of the Republicans.

    I hope that either Bernie or Hillary is ready for this and that each is thinking about some kick ass VPs. Both are older and there is no reason to believe that these next years will be any less rugged, Lord willing that Democrats are elected. I just can’t even think of the alternative except with the same feeling as I would a meteor hitting North America.

  33. 33.

    Smiling Mortician

    @Elie:

    Gawd, does anyone think this shit would end if we had a Democratic President?

    Are you thinking that we don’t have one now? Because we do, you know. And he’s doing a pretty good job.

  35. 35.

    Elie

    @Smiling Mortician:

    Sorry — I misspoke. Should have written “Democratic President for the next election”. You will note that I wished he could run for a third term. He is my hero. Maybe not perfect, but pretty damned near to it in my eyes, so I am very happy with his performance. That said, I know he must be exhausted. What a Presidency!

  39. 39.

    sharl

    Because of course:

    Latest Unease on Right: Ryan Is Too Far Left

    WASHINGTON — Far-right media figures, relatively small in number but potent in their influence, have embarked on a furious Internet expedition to cover Representative Paul D. Ryan in political silt.

    In 2012 when Mitt Romney picked Mr. Ryan, Republican of Wisconsin, as his running mate, the concern among some in their party was that Mr. Ryan was too conservative, particularly when it came to overhauling social programs like Medicare and Medicaid.

    Now, as he agonizes over whether to answer the appeal of his colleagues to become their next speaker, the far right is trotting out a fresh concern: Mr. Ryan is too far left.

    He is being criticized on issues ranging from a 2008 vote to bail out large banks to his longstanding interest in immigration reform to his work on a bipartisan budget measure. On Sunday night, the Drudge Report — a prime driver of conservative commentary — dedicated separate headlines to bashing Mr. Ryan on policy positions…

    Simon Maloy @SimonMaloy

    Paul Ryan’s Heritage Action score (55 percent) is worse than Kevin McCarthy’s (58 percent)
    __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __ __

    Paul Waldman ‏@paulwaldman1

    Which is weird, because you get 10 bonus points for reciting an Atlas Shrugged monologue from memory, which Ryan can totally do.

  40. 40.

    FlyingToaster

    @Amir Khalid: And within a year the print edition will disappear.

    @Roger Moore: Exactly.

    Honestly, what’s the point? I wasn’t the target audience, but I’ve never minded one way or the other if adults want to sell pictures of their bodies.

  41. 41.

    Mike in NC

    @Amir Khalid: Hard to believe. Back in the mid-80s, we had sailors going ashore in Karachi with bags of Playboy and Penthouse magazines to barter for local goods such as rugs and leather jackets. I told them if they were apprehended by local authorities it wouldn’t turn out well.

  42. 42.

    Peale

    @Tenar Darell:

    If you try to take in one show on your trip, based on what’s opened since your last visit, I’d go with Something Rotten or Hamilton. I thought SR was hilarious. I think some reviewers though it pandered. Yeah…and? I’ll take big show stopping production numbers that pander, please.

    I liked Hamilton a lot, but tickets are harder to come by.

    Allegiance is in previews. I like George Takei and Lea Salonga has such a beatiful voice. But I thought the musical itself was a little long.

    For exhibits, I liked the Asia Society exhibit on Philippines Gold artifacts. My friend liked the cloisters exhibit on medieval gems.

    I have no idea what the big food item this year is. I think it might be ramen. doughnuts are so last year. But if you wanna have recommendations, I know more about doughnuts than noodles.

    I think bagels at black seed are supposed to be the new thing as well, but I haven’t made it downtown. There’s also Sadelle’s. Hmmm. I guess the new trendy hot food item is bagels?

  43. 43.

    Chris

    @Frankensteinbeck:

    Damn, nobody projects more than a Village Idiot.

    Not projection. Or if it is, it’s at least partly deliberate. They say what they wish were true in the hopes that that’ll help make it true (say it over and over, at least some of the people out there who watch the news will believe it). Buuuut, since fewer and fewer people out there even listen to what these nimrods have to say…

  45. 45.

    Amir Khalid

    @Roger Moore:
    This is something Playboy has actually tried out before. About a decade ago it launched an Indonesia edition. (Yes, in a predominantly Muslim, socially conservative country. I wonder whose brain fart that was.) No pictures of nekkid wimmins, because Indonesia. It turned out that Playboy without pictures of nekkid wimmins is just FHM. The Indonesian government still banned it after a few issues, because Playboy.

    ETA: I absolutely agree with the Car and Driver analogy.

  46. 46.

    Mnemosyne (tablet)

    @Tenar Darell:

    I would have a backup plan for Hamilton. Apparently there was a line of 700 people hoping to get rush tickets when it opened.

    FWIW, we listened to the soundtrack in the car on our road trip this weekend and it made me cry. Goddamnit.

  47. 47.

    Roger Moore

    @sharl:

    He is being criticized on issues ranging from a 2008 vote to bail out large banks to his longstanding interest in immigration reform to his work on a bipartisan budget measure.

    They’re never going to find a politician who has accomplished anything who will be pure enough for them. I guess that’s actually the point. In their political philosophy, accomplishing anything is a negative, so eliminating anyone with any accomplishments is the goal. “Nihilists! Fuck me. I mean, say what you want about the tenets of National Socialism, Dude, at least it’s an ethos.”

  48. 48.

    Lige

    Ha! I’m in Malaysia right now and I doubt you’ll see many Playboy magazines around these parts but that Rabbit logo is everywhere! On shoes, cigarettes you name it. It cracks me up.

  52. 52.

    Mnemosyne (tablet)

    Also, too, if anyone is still all yeah, right, a hip-hop musical abkut Alexander Hamilton, here’s Lin-Manuel Miranda doing what is now the opening number at the White House back in 2009 when he still thought it was going to be a concept album and not a play:

    http://youtu.be/3Jz1VRfdbmY

    People laugh, but he gets a standing ovation at the end. And with her impeccable taste, FLOTUS loves it from the opening notes.

  53. 53.

    Roger Moore

    @Amir Khalid:
    Playboy actually has nationalized versions in many different countries, with the pictorial content adjusted for the local tastes and legal climate. But the point of Playboy is not just to be FHM with dirtier pictures; it’s supposed to be classier than other men’s magazines. Even their nudes are supposed to be classier than run-of-the-mill internet pr0n. OK, maybe they don’t actually come through with that, but if they can’t achieve that then they’re sadly falling down on the job.

  54. 54.

    seaboogie

    @Frankensteinbeck: Nobody projects “America” and “Americans” like a RWNJ. I had a fb friend that I unfriended because his ranty unglue-ing just depressed and worried me. He assumed that all “Americans” thought just like he did. I was all like “Dude, I am an American, and “nope” – I do not follow your supposed logic at all. Big Ben Carson supporter, that one was.

  58. 58.

    Amir Khalid

    @lamh36:
    Brown is a good university to look at for someone like Malia. It’s prestigious, and celebrity student Emma Watson was able to finish her degree there in peace, while still filming the Harry Potter movies.

  59. 59.

    David Koch

    It’s been soooooooo long since we’ve had debates that we forget debates are barely about policy.

    Here’s Russert wasting 2 minutes asking Obama if he believes in UFOs

    And who can forget “moderators” asking Hillary why she’s unlikeable and asking Edwards about his $400 hair cut.

  60. 60.

    seaboogie

    @Amir Khalid: I wonder if the first girls get SS coverage after Dad’s term is up – in the political climate of this country, it seems like a pretty good idea.

  61. 61.

    Amir Khalid

    @Roger Moore:
    True; Playboy is supposed to be The New Yorker with dirtier pictures. The pictures of nekkid wimmins are central to its identity, though, and I think it’s a branding mistake to have any edition of Playboy without them.

  64. 64.

    David Koch

    @jl:

    networks might view the Democratic debates as loss leaders

    In 2007 the Dem debates got 2.5 to 3 million viewers for cable which is very good as it quadruples the viewership of their regular programming.

    That said, the questions are bound to be ridiculous.

  65. 65.

    Librarian

    Before founding Playboy. Hugh Hefner had worked at Esquire, and he intended Playboy to be a racier version of Esquire.

  66. 66.

    Mnemosyne (tablet)

    @lamh36:

    It’s probably going to win a whole mess of Tony Awards, so I think it’s a safe bet it will still be running next year. You should probably buy tickets as soon as you have your travel plans set, because it’s insanely popular and (reportedly) insanely good.

    Like I said, we listened to the soundtrack this weekend and I was crying in the car during the saddest parts. Not just misty-eyed, but actually crying. (Luckily I was not driving, or I might have had to pull over!)

  67. 67.

    Schlemazel

    @efgoldman:
    yeah, I mentioned it a couple of days ago and nobody responded. But he specifically said “no front pagers” hes right about that.

  68. 68.

    peale

    @David Koch:
    trump debates pull 20 million, so it will be seen to be a loss.

    @David Koch: if Hillary were to get a question like that again and instead of responding, would pull out a gun and shoot Anderson Cooper dead on live TV, I might be inclined to give her a pass. Vote for her more enthusiastically even.

  69. 69.

    jl

    @David Koch: Maybe so. But both HRC and Sanders won;t be nearly as afraid of the media as in the past, since corporate media has been swept up in the wave of popular anger, and Sanders has been going after it anyway.

    So, CNN and Anderson and Bash would have to be pretty dense to think that the media act from previous cycle would work now. they have to be really clueless…. oh… wait…

  70. 70.

    NotMax

    @Tenar Darrell

    Can recommend these two without any reservations about them, having experienced both last month.

    Play: The Curious Incident of the Dog in the Night-Time

    Eats: The Shakespeare. British pub food, wide selection of brews, pretty decent on wines, too. Good spot for a before theater meal, when one doesn’t necessarily want anything heavy. Very reasonable prices. A bit off the theater district, but a relatively short and pleasant walk (hint: make most of the east-west walk along 42nd street as that has significantly wider sidewalks).

  72. 72.

    peale

    Speaking of intersectional disputes, I’m starting to be interested in the dispute over the Jack the Ripper museum.

    The former diversity officer seems like a prick. Although the protest against it is also tied up in anti-gentrification somehow.

  73. 73.

    AxelFoley

    @jl:

    In any case, I think HRC and certainly Sanders are calibrating their ceremonial distancing from Obama nicely

    And doing that will certainly lose them the Obama coalition. Y’know, the supporters of the most successful Dem President since FDR.

  75. 75.

    NotMax

    @Peale

    Something Rotten is a hoot-and-a-half. Total piece of fluff, but the cast exudes so much sheer fun that one can’t help but get swept up in it. And a full-on tap dance number!

  76. 76.

    Amir Khalid

    @Goblue72:
    I don’t think the magazine matters anymore except as a flagship for the Playboy brand, which is the Playboy business’ real profit centre. It’s been losing money for years, and any other publisher would have shut it down by now.

  77. 77.

    Tenar Darell

    @Peale: Hah! In NYC Bagels, are almost always good. I can really only get those a few places in Boston, like by going to Kupel’s.

    I was thinking nice restaurants with a good wine-list and good food, that won’t cost me too much. But, bagel’s one morning might work too. Thanks!

  78. 78.

    Mnemosyne (tablet)

    @Tenar Darell:

    Have you seen the new, remastered version of 1776 that was released on DVD and BluRay this summer that was overseen by the film’s director? It’s still quite long, but the pacing is much better than even the “restored” version that came out a few years ago.

    The spouse is obsessed with 1776, so having a whole new musical come out about the Founding Fathers was pretty much his dream come true. We’ll probably have to wait for a touring company to come to LA, but I know he’s dying to see it.

  79. 79.

    Schlemazel

    @AxelFoley:
    Wait! You think voters out there are going to not see that every candidate has to be their own person but instead will look at this and say, “They are not sufficiently loyal to Obama therefore I am going to vote for JEB? or Trump?

    Man, I thought I had a dim view of voters but even I don’t think that will happen.

  80. 80.

    NotMax

    @Tenar Darell

    Mentioned previously about a trick at the Times Square half-price booth in case you should want to see more than one show.

    Within 7 days of purchase at the Times Square TKTS booth, bring the tickets from the first show with you. All you have to do is show them to the person handling the line at window #1 and he’ll/she’ll let you right in, without any standing in line at all.

    Saw two shows in September. For the first, wait time was about 30 minutes (not bad, really). For the second, wait time was all of 10 seconds.

  81. 81.

    Peale

    @NotMax: yes. I came away from Hamilton thinking that I learned something and that perhaps we shouldn’t be so quick to remove him from his bill. And the music is wonderful. I’m sure it will win its share of Tony’s.

    But…Hamilton did not have a tap number. Or Thomas Nostadamus and dancing brunch menus.

  84. 84.

    Schlemazel

    @NotMax:
    Thanks for that tip BTW. I do have a question though, what are the prices? I wanted to see a couple of shows whne they toured through here but the worst seats at the back, for a Wed matinee were $80 and anything else was well over a hundred with many over 2. I just couldn’t bring myself to spend $300 to take the wife to see a show. I can get a heck of a lot of entertainment for that kind of money.

    I saw a trailer for the movie “The Philadelphia Story” and they touted tht it had been the #1 Broadway show the year before and people had paid as much as $3.25 to see it! I went to the inflation calculator and found that was about $80 today so it is not JUST that I am cheap, their prices really have run away.

  86. 86.

    NotMax

    @Schlemazel

    For the two shows I saw, half-price for one was $65, for the other $80. The musical was the more expensive.

    Still pricey, but the seats were very good.

  88. 88.

    David Koch

    @Schlemazel: Of the many mistakes Gore made one of the worst was running away from successful sitting President.

    Here’s a novel idea: Dem candidates should STOP running against Obama and START running against target rich GOP

  89. 89.

    Schlemazel

    @NotMax:

    That seems reasonable. I assume you didn’t sit in the last row of the 3rd balcony? I’d go to shows for those prices.

  91. 91.

    cmorenc

    @David Koch:

    In 2007 the Dem debates got 2.5 to 3 million viewers for cable which is very good as it quadruples the viewership of their regular programming.

    That said, the questions are bound to be ridiculous.

    Possibly including: “If while you’re President, you hear rumors that ‘first man’ Bill Clinton is back getting blowjobs from other women in one of the upstairs closets while you’re down in the Oval Office, what will you do?”

  92. 92.

    Schlemazel

    @David Koch:
    I have not heard either run against PBO the way Gore did against Clinton. I also don’t think it hurt him as much as Ralphie did. Gores VP choice was a complete disaster and further evidence that Ralphie was right, there was no difference (reality does not always comport with opinion). I think every candidate should be able to say what they would do the same and what they would do differently from the current POTUS.

  93. 93.

    Mnemosyne (tablet)

    @Tenar Darell:

    I don’t know how the Pulitzers work, but if he’s eligible for one with Hamilton, he’s going to win it. It’s his year, and the music at least really is that good. And I say this as someone who doesn’t particularly like hip-hop as a musical style.

  95. 95.

    jl

    @AxelFoley:

    ” And doing that will certainly lose them the Obama coalition. ”

    I think Obama voters want someone to preserve and extend Obama’s accomplishments. But very few people are going to get excited about voting for somebody pretending to be Barack Obama, or pretending to agree with everything he’s done. That is what I meant by ‘ceremonial distancing’.

  96. 96.

    Frank Bolton

    @AxelFoley: Why would it? I know that pundits like to cast the electoral success of the Obama Coalition in terms of the candidate’s personal charisma (I think to think it’s because it lets them entertain the fantasy that this will all be over soon) but the Obama Coalition really isn’t a new thing. The Obama Coalition is simply the Dukakis Coalition + lopsided demographic growth. Dukakis and 2012 Obama got very similar exit polling percentages throughout the demographics after all.

    At any rate, because the Obama Coalition has had such a smooth electoral transition from 1988 -> 1992 -> 1996 -> 2004 -> 2008 -> 2012, with the major hiccups being the Reform Party, 2004 Bush’s short-lived strength with Latinos and evangelicals, and the 2007 financial crisis and its aftershocks, this indicates to me that the Obama Coalition is ideology-driven, not personality-driven.

    It’s an open question whether HRC or Sanders can thread the needle such that they can criticize, even harshly, Obama in terms of policy and still keep the coalition together. But Sanders is starting to show strength in the demographics that Obama used to beat Clinton with* so I don’t think it’ll be a deal-breaker as long as he keeps it ideological and not personal.

    *With the notable exception of blacks; with Asians and Latinos, he’s actually doing slightly better than 2008 Obama did at the end of the Democratic primary. Obama lost every racial demographic in the 2008 primary except for blacks, after all.

  97. 97.

    peale

    So Mother Theresa’s order will stop adoptions rather than comply with new laws for adoptions by single people in India.

    What I’m trying to figure out is how a country with 15-30 million orphans ends up with only 2,500 adoptions each year. Like if every charity that ran an orphanage refused to facilitate adoptions, it would hardly make a dent in the problem anyway.

  98. 98.

    BGinCHI

    Despite the obvious headwinds they may face in 2016, the two leading Democrats are at least trying to win their primary

    Fuck you, Politico.

    Hacks.

  99. 99.

    Frank Bolton

    @David Koch: Why would Gore’s embracing of Clinton have helped him? I don’t think that the political success of the administration would’ve helped Gore; Clinton’s popularity was driven by things he couldn’t transfer to Gore except in terms of glittering generalities. What could Gore have said? ‘Vote for me and through some vague sympathetic magic, peace and prosperity would’ve continued? I mean, I can’t articulate how I’d do this because it’d involve unpopular policy and/or factors out of my control… but, Clinton! Wooooo! He’s close by and you like him! So vote for me!’

    I mean, the election was close enough that you could engage in a lot of counter-factuals and still end up being right by the butterfly effect. I just want something more empirically justifiable. What would the Gore campaign needed to have done in order to use Clinton better and what would’ve been the effect?

  100. 100.

    Frankensteinbeck

    @jl:
    And I agree with that. Hillary, at least, has made it clear that she’s proud of Obama and the work she did in his administration, but she’s her own candidate. I am happy with that balance.

    But damn if I haven’t read ‘she disagreed on this tiny point, so I’m super sure she’ll repudiate Obama any day now!’ articles.

  101. 101.

    Tenar Darell

    @Mnemosyne (tablet): Hamilton is 2016 Tony Awards eligible. It would be elgible for the 2016 Pulitzer for Drama as well I believe. It could also get a Grammy Award for Best Musical Theater Album, I think.

    Next stop, Hamilton, the movie. Hmmm, any ideas?

  104. 104.

    NotMax

    @Schlemazel

    Very good seats. Not nosebleed section, not last row, not way off to one side. TKTS agent at window will offer a choice of seats before any money crosses the counter (all for the same price).

    IIRC, 6th row orchestra just to the left of center for the musical, 3rd row in front mezzanine, just to the right of center for the straight play.

  105. 105.

    Mnemosyne (tablet)

    Okay, last Hamilton comment before I go to sleep — if anyone out there is thinking, Why should I go see a musical about a bunch of Dead White Guys?

    All of the Dead White Guys are played by Black or Latino actors, including the lead. Yes, George Washington and Thomas Jefferson are played by Black men. (Okay, King George III is played by a white dude, but that’s because they were able to get Jonathan Goff.)

  107. 107.

    Jewish Steel

    Many would argue that widespread mistrust of Clinton and an aversion to “Obama’s third term” should be enough to ensure a Republican victory

    Har-de-har, what horseshit.

  108. 108.

    ? Martin

    The Obama campaign registered 3 million voters (a good chunk of its national popular vote margin), and had 3,000 full-time organizers on payroll whose mission was to “organize themselves out of a job.

    California’s new automatic voting law will register 6.5M in time for the election. Oregon’s will register nearly 300K. Good bet the majority of both will be Democrats. That’s a lot of money organizers can divert from registration to getting voters to the polls. It’s in states where the Dem is guaranteed to win the presidency anyway, but it’ll help win some close House races and it’ll help run up the popular vote, FWIW.

  110. 110.

    mclaren

    @Jewish Steel:

    Many would argue that widespread mistrust of Clinton and an aversion to “Obama’s third term” should be enough to ensure a Republican victory.

    Reminiscent of that old Fox News standby, “some people say.”

    “Some people say Barack Obama is a Muslim born in Kenya.”

    “Some people say Bill Clinton had Vince Foster murdered.”

    “Some people say fluoridation is the most sinister communist plot every devised.”

    We never find out exactly who these “many” are who “would argue” various outlandish things, of course…

  111. 111.

    Brachiator

    @Amir Khalid:

    It’s the end of an era: Playboy magazine will phase out pictures of nekkid wimmins.

    That’s crazy talk. Next, you’ll be telling me that VW cannot engineer a good auto without cheating on the emissions tests.

    In a tradition as old as time, I remember spending the summer with some relatives. I was staying in the rooms of a cousin who was away in the Army. One day, I discovered his porn stash. Kids have it too easy today. I blame the Internets. And Al Gore.

  112. 112.

    mclaren

    @Schlemazel:

    Gores VP choice was a complete disaster and further evidence that Ralphie was right, there was no difference (reality does not always comport with opinion).

    No.

    You did not just say that, did you?

    Did you actually say that there was no difference in the 2000 election between Al Gore and George W. Bush?

    Seriously?

    Did I hear you correctly? Because I want to make sure I didn’t misinterpret what you said, since…wow. Just…wow.

  113. 113.

    sm*t cl*de

    a Hobbesian primary

    What kind is that? Nasty, brutish and short?
    Such is the influence of Trump.

  115. 115.

    Brachiator

    @mclaren:

    “Some people say Bill Clinton had Vince Foster murdered.”

    That’s a dirty lie.

    Some people say that Hillary Clinton had Vince Foster murdered, not Bill.

  118. 118.

    mclaren

    @Mike J:

    I think Martin was pointing out the basic fact that the states in which automatic DMV voter registration in getting implemented are also deep blue states in which the registration won’t make a big difference in the electoral college totals.

    However, as Martin also points out, registering these additional voters automatically will save the Demos money on registration processing that they’ll be able to spend registering voters in other states that aren’t quite so deep blue, and the additional registered voters even in deep blue states like OR and CA may help swing some hotly contested house races to the Democratic side.

    So these new auto-registration laws are far from a waste of time.

    Perhaps the biggest impact will be that these kinds of auto-registration laws will create increased pressure on other states to follow suit, instead of ramping up punitive voter ID laws and then shutting down DMV offices in black counties.

  121. 121.

    mclaren

    @Frank Bolton:

    I know that pundits like to cast the electoral success of the Obama Coalition in terms of the candidate’s personal charisma …

    Actually, AFAIK, pundits like to tout the Obama team’s groundbreaking leveraging of social media and big-data-driven micro-polled campaign turnout efforts in key counties and districts throughout the nation to explain his 2 presidential election victories. And the evidence strongly suggests they’re correct.

    See “How Obama Tapped Into Social Networks’ Power,” The New York Times, 9 November 2008.

    Also see “Barack Obama and the Facebook Election — The president-elect was far ahead online, Matthew Fraser and Soumitra Dutta write,” U.S. News and World Report, 29 November 2008.

    Also see “How President Obama’s campaign used big data to rally individual voters,” MIT Technology Review, 19 November 2012.

  122. 122.

    Ryan

    @dmsilev: Why, it’s as if the news organizations shouldn’t be the ones holding the debates, as they are choosing to have a conflict of interest by prioritizing ratings.

  123. 123.

    John D.

    @seaboogie: Former Presidents, spouses, and children get lifetime Secret Service protection (Obama signed a law that restored it from 10 years to lifetime in 2013)

  125. 125.

    Cervantes

    @Frank Bolton:

    At any rate, because the Obama Coalition has had such a smooth electoral transition from 1988 -> 1992 -> 1996 -> 2004 -> 2008 -> 2012, with the major hiccups being the Reform Party, 2004 Bush’s short-lived strength with Latinos and evangelicals, and the 2007 financial crisis and its aftershocks, this indicates to me that the Obama Coalition is ideology-driven, not personality-driven.

    What do you make of the “youth vote” and “youth turn-out” over that same period?

  126. 126.

    Cervantes

    @Lige:

    Ha! I’m in Malaysia right now and I doubt you’ll see many Playboy magazines around these parts but that Rabbit logo is everywhere! On shoes, cigarettes you name it. It cracks me up.

    I believe there was a Malaysian “Playboy bunny” not too long ago, though perhaps not based in Malaysia. I also believe that she has since then converted to Islam.

    Your observation in a nutshell?

  128. 128.

    Shana

    @Tenar Darell: I’ve been to Medi Winebar for dinner a couple of times. Nice mediterranean food, good wine selection, moderately priced for NYC.

    Hand to God – terrific. Fun Home – terrific. Hamilton – best show I’ve seen in decades!!! Truly amazing. They have a lottery for tickets in the front row every day. Sign up at 5:30, drawing at 6. 5 minute show before the drawing at 5:55. It’s called Ham4Ham – tickets are $10 each hence the name. It generally draws 100s of people, but worth a try if you have the time.

  129. 129.

    JimGod

    @AxelFoley: Except to combat income inequality, they both will have to distance themselves from some of the economic policies of this administration. TPP opposition by both candidates being exhibit A. Frank Bolton is right, this “Obama coalition” has been around for awhile, it won’t just stay home cause they’re not declaring Obama to be infallible for all time. Not to mention that the big problem with this much vaunted coalition is how to get them off their lazy asses for midterm elections. If Rodham Clinton or Sanders can figure that trick out, we’re in a much better spot.

  130. 130.

    Tenar Darell

    @Shana: Oooo, thanks! Looks like that’s #Ham4Ham on Twitter because the lottery times shift about depending on the curtain times.

  131. 131.

    Frank Bolton

    @mclaren:

    Actually, AFAIK, pundits like to tout the Obama team’s groundbreaking leveraging of social media and big-data-driven micro-polled campaign turnout efforts in key counties and districts throughout the nation to explain his 2 presidential election victories. And the evidence strongly suggests they’re correct.

    2004 Kerry and 2012 Obama got very similar margins with all demographics: by age, race, sex, education, etc. And turnout was similar, too; 2004 – 60.4%; 2008 – 62.3%; and 2012 – 57.5%. The only really significant difference between these three elections was A.) the 2007 financial crisis/Iraq War bungling/assorted domestic scandals temporarily discrediting the Bush Administration and B.) that the Bush Administration did much better with Latinos in 2004. The latter being a one-time thing as we can see from 2000, 2008, and 2012. And of course the change in the composition of electorate. If Obama’s unique organizational skills was what led him to victory, it’s not really seen in the numbers.

    Comparing Obama’s performance to previous Presidential elections is by and large why I dismiss the focus on the ins-and-outs of electioneering and put such a huge emphasis on demographic appeal. As long as the Democratic Party by-and-large keeps largely to the same platform that all post-Carter Democratic Presidents did (benefits of tolerance and multiculturalism, Keynesian economics, capitalism with constraints, American exceptionalism with a velvet glove, the need for a social safety net, secularism in government, scientific progress, urban cultural identity politics, etc.), they’re not going to outdo current demographics minus change much. A lot of people like to put focus on sexy things like social media and organization and endorsements and slick press conferences, but honestly modern elections are more like death marches than elegant duels. Victory is by and large decided months, if not years in advance. And there’s not much that can be done to move the needle in the positive direction.

  132. 132.

    Frank Bolton

    @Cervantes: Inconclusive. There was a huge drop in 18-29 youth turnout between 2008 and 2012 (~8%) and even 2008 Obama only did slightly better than 2004 Kerry.

    Salami-slicing it by race doesn’t reveal more insight. Latino and Asian vote turnout has increased modestly since 2004, about 3%, (1996 and 2000 were nadirs of Presidential turnout for every demographic), white turnout has dropped by about the same amount, and black turnout has increased noticeably (~6%). On the other hand, 2012 Obama witnessed a very large drop in white (~11%) and black male (~14%) support among 18-29 year olds compared to 2008.

    The takeaway is that 2008 Obama only performed slightly better with youth in both raw % and turnout than 2004 Kerry and 2012 Obama performed significantly worse. I suspect that the 2007 financial crisis was the real reason for Obama’s strong performance.

  133. 133.

    David Koch

    @JimGod: a chuck of Sanders supporters say they won’t vote in the general election if Hillary is the nominee because they won’t vote for the lesser of 2 evils. Are these Sanders supporters not to be believed? Should we just discount such statements and take their votes for granted? After all they’ve been around for awhile.

    Or do we only take for granted and trash those “lazy” minorities & millennials who supported Obama.

    Maybe if Sanders’ supporters didn’t continually trash Obama and his “lazy” supporters their idol wouldn’t find himself with an anemic 7% of the black vote in South Carolina.

  135. 135.

    Cervantes

    @Frank Bolton:

    Inconclusive. There was a huge drop in 18-29 youth turnout between 2008 and 2012 (~8%) and even 2008 Obama only did slightly better than 2004 Kerry. […]

    The takeaway is that 2008 Obama only performed slightly better with youth in both raw % and turnout than 2004 Kerry and 2012 Obama performed significantly worse. I suspect that the 2007 financial crisis was the real reason for Obama’s strong performance.

    Thanks.

    The period you discussed earlier (and that I asked about) was “1988 -> 1992 -> 1996 -> 2004 -> 2008 -> 2012.” Have you looked at “youth” voting patterns in the earlier part of this period?

    I ask because of your statement that “the Obama Coalition is simply the Dukakis Coalition + lopsided demographic growth.”

  137. 137.

    Frank Bolton

    @Cervantes: I’ve really been trying to find the percentages in subcategories, but election data prior to 2000 is very hard to find. And I’m hesitant to use 1992 and 1996 as data points for anything because they were unusual elections; a significant 3rd-party challenge and 1996 had an unusual low turnout.

    But a naive comparison of Dukakis and 2012 Obama’s exit polling shows that, percentage-wise, they got similar numbers among the major demographic subdivisions. Compare this: http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-1988/ to this: http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/polls/us-elections/how-groups-voted/how-groups-voted-2012/. There are some differences that make a direct comparison somewhat sketchy, such as:
    1988 election had a significantly lower (~5%) turnout.
    1988 did quite a bit worse with the lower-middle and middle class than 2012.
    2012 electorate’s is a lot more polarized by party than 1988’s.
    2012 Obama did a lot better with the youth than 1988 Dukakis. On the other hand, the median age of the United States has increased by about 5 years since 1988 so I consider that something of a wash.

  138. 138.

    Frank Bolton

    @David Koch: I’m not disbelieving the poll. I’m disbelieving your conclusion that the 7% is because of Sanders’ supporters ideological polarization, especially since you’re measuring the latter quality with nothing more than anecdotes.

  139. 139.

    David Koch

    by and large why I dismiss the focus on the ins-and-outs of electioneering and put such a huge emphasis on demographic appeal.

    Gallup poll — July 26, 1988:

    Mike Dukakis…55%
    George Bush….38%

    With only 105 days to the election, Dukakis went from a 17 point lead to an 8 point defeat.

    Tell President Dukakis that tactics, issues, and electioneering don’t matter because of your demographic algorithm.

    You need to get your ridiculous ass out of your ivory tower and rub elbows with the plebs from time to time.

  140. 140.

    Frank Bolton

    @David Koch: Why do you believe that the number was reflective of the reality at the time? What’s more, assuming that number did accurately reflect the vote (minus future events, of course), why do you believe that tactics and electioneering, or lack thereof, was the cause of that drop?

    Also, I never claimed that issues weren’t important. In fact, I think that issues are paramount to the point of completely trumping every concern save for extremely negative black swans like recessions and foreign policy disasters. When I say ‘demographic appeal’, I mean in the sense that political party tailors their platform to suit the tastes of the electorate. Not that they just go ‘here I am, white working class/Mormons/gays/military person/etc.; vote for me because that’s what people in your demographic do!’

  141. 141.

    Cervantes

    @Frank Bolton:

    Your reply must have been in moderation for a bit because it contained more than three links (an utterly ridiculous constraint, needless to say).

    And now that I do see your response I am out of time. I’ll try to read through it properly later. Thanks.

  142. 142.

    David Koch

    @Frank Bolton:

    I’m disbelieving your conclusion that the 7% is because of Sanders’ supporters ideological polarization,

    I said nothing about ideological polarization. Nothing. I said insulting minorities by calling them “lazy” and personally trashing Obama might be a factor in Sanders’ poor showing.

    It’s been a while since I read my freshman book on fallacies, but I’m sure there’s one that covers your failed reading comprehension.

    now I must move along, I have demands on my time, making it impossible for me to baby sit silly dilettantes.

  143. 143.

    Frank Bolton

    @David Koch:

    I said insulting minorities by calling them “lazy” and personally trashing Obama might be a factor in Sanders’ poor showing.

    And that’s why I posted the spotlight fallacy link. Because you backed that assertion with purely anecdotal evidence. I normally don’t call out people doing this, because I myself post some pretty offensive and condescending things with no empirical backing, but if you’re challenged the appropriate response isn’t just to double down on that fuzzy thinking. I want some proof: are those feelings empirically backed by anything, like a poll showing that Sanders’ supporters have a negative view of Obama?

  144. 144.

    Gretchen

    Rachel Maddow is moderating one of the debates. There won’t be any “diamonds or pearls” question for that one.

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