History's Greatest Mulligan https://t.co/nrJNMqscsL
— Simon Maloy (@SimonMaloy) October 16, 2015
How pathetic for @realdonaldtrump to criticize the president for 9/11. We were attacked & my brother kept us safe.
— Jeb Bush (@JebBush) October 16, 2015
This statement doesn’t make sense. https://t.co/wyCMTnQMHJ
— BOO Wexler (@wexler) October 16, 2015
Not just what it says! The fact Jeb Bush thought it was a good idea to seem real angry *about 9/11* *on Twitter* at *Donald Trump*.
— Jonathan Shainin (@jonathanshainin) October 16, 2015
Jeb's! quote, dumb as it seems, is more understandable when you recall he got away with line in the Fox debate. Must've thought that was it.
— Howard French (@hofrench) October 16, 2015
Maybe Jeb should switch from "My brother kept us safe" to "Welp, it could have been worse."
— Bob Schooley (@Rschooley) October 17, 2015
benw
Ha ha! You fool! You fell victim to one of the classic blunders – The most famous of which is “never get involved in a land war in Asia” – but only slightly less well-known is this: “Never get in a twitter fight against a New Yorker when the 9/11 attacks are on the line”! Ha ha ha ha ha ha ha!
Felonius Monk
Stop laughing at JAB? … er JEB? — he can’t help it, he’s a Bush. Besides, it is never polite to make fun of the weak and infirm.
MattF
Well, it is pathetic, although not in the way Jeb! meant. The usual suspects generated news articles about Trump’s comment, and then (I guess) everyone couldn’t help wondering what Jeb!’s response would be. I can only hope that this “Force Jeb! to defend his brother” narrative continues for the forseeable future.
Fred
It’s high time Bush and his cronies get credit for the thousands who died on 9-11. They were in charge, were warned and refused to do anything to stop it. I nerver thought I would say this but Thanks Donald Trump!
Now the question is: Was it incompetence or willful neglect? Or maybe an inside job? I hardly think we will ever know.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
I finally saw the actual clip on the Hayes show last night. The most interesting thing to me was the way the Bloomberg reporter physically recoils from the idea that the Idiot Princeling might bear some responsability.
and I’m sure this is utterly sincere
Makes Lincoln Chaffee look like a stand up guy
srv
Trump speaks a great truth to power and all the liberals can do is enjoy those really fighting in the trenches for America.
Mike J
I can’t understand why you would ignore 9/11, but even if you did, I was under the impression that Republicans got very, very upset about attacks on embassies. How many embassy attacks were there under Bush? Seven? Eight? At least dozens of people killed. You would think Republicans would be livid about that.
srv
Bring. On. The. Berniebro. Who will fight the becrowning?
Baud
God, I hope he’s the nominee.
trollhattan
@srv:
I’m sure somebody can take those same words and fashion a sentence that at least begins to make sense. This attempt must represent some kind of really sad accident.
Thanks for your trench service. Don’t ever come out.
greennotGreen
@Mike J:
IOKIYAR
SATSQ
trollhattan
@Mike J:
And those were embassies, not consulates.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Fred:
My unprovable theory has always been that the Saudis reassured the Bushes that bin Laden was all talk and no action, so they ignored him until it was too late. When W was sitting there speechless with “The Pet Goat,” he was thinking, Bandar, you asshole, you fucked us over!
Jim, Foolish Literalist
also, too, Very Serious Voice on Foreign Policy Lindsey Graham said Obama was responsible for the Charlie Hebdo attacks, sparking thoughtful nods about the Village
Mike in NC
JEBzzz a maroon. The more money he spends on TV ads, the lower his polling numbers. Evidently ignorant of the Law of Diminishing Returns.
Mike J
@trollhattan: Just doubled checked the numbers:
http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2014/may/12/john-garamendi/prior-benghazi-were-there-13-attacks-embassies-and/
Gindy51
How old are these guys? 10?
Amir Khalid
@Mike in NC:
Then Jeb is past Diminishing Returns, and well into the Negative Returns Zone.
Gindy51
@Mike J: 13 as far as last count
Roger Moore
This is what happens when you live inside a bubble. The Republicans have all been willing to go along with the fiction that 9/11 doesn’t count and Bush kept us safe, that it’s a shock when somebody doesn’t go along. They probably genuinely believe it by now.
Gin & Tonic
@Baud: Brinks. Trucks.
Dupe70
Now I have truly experienced and felt schadenfreude. Couldn’t happen to a better bunch of rat fvkers (Bush clan.)
Baud
@Gin & Tonic:
Are. Backing. Over. Jeb.
srv
Perhaps the Berniebros should start a #DronedLivesMatter
Jim, Foolish Literalist
besides the flat-out weirdness of their worldview, the language these people use is so weirdly childish, “he kept us safe”. I would never say that about Obama. Waiting for a reporter to ask Jeb$ if Obama has kept us safe for the last seven years
Felonius Monk
It has been rumored that dubya may come out of hiding to campaign with JEB?? —- they can bill that as the Dumb and Dumber Tour.
karounie
Depends on what the meaning of “us” is. Not a single member of the Bush Family died that day.
trollhattan
@Felonius Monk:
Make it so!
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@Roger Moore:
I think that’s it right there. He told everybody at that debate about how his big brother kept us all safe, and everybody who was in the hall ate it up. So, I guess he thinks that all the rest of us are bound to swallow it without choking, too, and he’s going to trot it out again and again. I wonder whether he has the brains or self awareness to understand why it isn’t going over well. I don’t think he does. I think he’s utterly floored that people aren’t just nodding their heads when he says it. The same way that I think he’s just flat befuddled about why his super-sensational campaign isn’t running away with things. Sad, sad guy…
Amir Khalid
Jeb’s candidacy, like Rand Paul’s, needs to be taken out back and put out of its misery. But I don’t see that happening until Jeb’s been thoroughly humiliated in a primary vote or two.
Thoughtful Today
Perfect reply to Jeb?’s tweet:
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Amir Khalid: Every time I think Jeb can’t possibly win, I look at the competition. Same with Rubio. The good news is, it seems to be getting personal:
If Rubio does get the nomination, it’s a good bet somebody in the Bush camp dumps their dirt on Rubio out of pure spite.
different-church-lady
@srv:
Nailed it.
trollhattan
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Not enough popcorn in the entire
worldsolar system to fill the coming demand.Amir Khalid
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
It’s true, the Republican presidential candidates as a group are not what anyone would call shining examples of competence.
different-church-lady
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
JEB!: “Well, I would say no, because after 3000 people died in New York, my brother kept New York safe, but then Obama allowed four people to die in Bengazi. So, of course not.”
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@MattF: I just noticed today, looking for some other things, that Trump announced 1 day after JEB? officially announced.
1 day.
In his speech he mentioned JEB? 4 times. Rubio once. Didn’t seem to mention any of the other GOP candidates at all.
It seems personal with him and JEB? and maybe with Rubio. It’ll be interesting if he helps push them out before he quits himself.
Cheers,
Scott.
Smedley Darlington Prunebanks (formerly Mumphrey, et al.)
@different-church-lady:
You know, the truly sad thing is that I could see him saying something like that in all seriousness.
Yatsuno
@Gin & Tonic: @Baud: He’s gonna need more of them.
Elie
@Baud:
LOL– so true!
When Jeb?! got into this, he and his clan thought the world was the same as before his brother was elected. NO. He has stone tools in a bronze age.. Everything that he thought he knew is wrong. He had money, but his strategy did not fit the current war and in his hermetically sealed bubble and ego, he really didn’t pay enough attention to what had happened not only in his party, but the outside world at large. I am sure he is furious, which is why he keeps running at Trump. I am not sure what he can do at this point, but Trump is going to mash pie in his face every time he tries to jump him.
beltane
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: Donald Trump as the Bush family’s personal troll? I’m OK with that.
Renie
Another thread about a ?JEB? blunder and we only get srv trolling? Wheres RtR? The trolling here has really gone downhill!! Have all the Benjamins turned into Washingtons and the BRINKS TRUCKS turned into Toyota Tacomas?
trollhattan
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
Yeah, you touch on what to me is the crux of the Trump candidacy: why?
Does anybody think he wants the job? I don’t.
Did he expect (I mean really expect, not “Trump cannot fail!” posturing) to rocket to the top and many months later, remain there? I don’t think so.
If he wins some early primaries/caucuses, is he basically stuck in this campaign? I’m beginning to wonder, mostly because I thought he’d have a mayfly campaign: hatch, get laid, die off quickly.
I’m hoping some insider writes a tell-all.
different-church-lady
@Elie: The big thing going against Jeb¡ is that he actually does gives a fuck.
His bother had a head full of rocks, but his bother didn’t give a fuck, so for a long time W got away with having a head full of rocks.
J, on the other hand, has a head full of rocks, but because he actually gives a fuck, he can’t pull off the reality distortion that makes the awareness of the rocks go away.
greennotGreen
@Renie: Can I say right now how hilarious I think the name “Toyota Tacoma” is? Like “Tacoma” is some wild west place where you need a rough and tumble truck to make it over the rocky passes. When, in fact, you need something small and maneuverable to get a good parking place at Tacoma Mall and good mileage for the long waits in traffic in and out of Seattle.
Next up, the “Chevrolet Witchita.” Like most things in Kansas, only runs in reverse.
Iowa Old Lady
@efgoldman: Trump is extremely thin-skinned. He’s going after Bush today because Bush said something critical of him. That’s why it’s personal–not Bush himself but Bush’s failure to be purely adoring.
Elie
Why does Jeb keep “rushing the hill” with Trump on this issue? This is at least the second or third time. Can he not see that he is digging his hole deeper on this issue and that he needs to rethink and stop. This tactic is wrong — it is further injuring his cause and there is no way to make it right because by its nature it needed to be finessed if not avoided altogether. Instead its become the center of his candidacy !
Not only is Jeb!? stupid, it appears he is stubbornly stupid and without advisers who he either listens to or can help him.
trollhattan
@greennotGreen:
Having grown up in Seattle we had a full toolkit of go-to Tacoma jokes. The smelter was quite nice.
Also, too, ISIL is making quite the marketing pitch for the Toyota Hilux.
beltane
@Elie: Maybe Babs has instructed him to fight for his brother’s honor to the bitter end.
Elie
@different-church-lady:
I’m not that convinced that he gives a fuck about the issues, but more about what is happening to his and his family’s reputation which he is totally unable to protect, it seems. He lacks any real integrity, as evidenced by the incredible things he has said about Medicaid and poor people — stuff that is demonstrably false and really does not help him. It doesn’t even ocurr to him to be a principled conservative — after all, what would he have to lose at 8%? He doesn’t even have the words to come up with reasoned policy. He is both stupid and without moral anything. As I said, the only fuck I think he gives is about his own enormous ego — like all the Bushes — all hat and no cowboy.
Cervantes
@Elie:
Oh, you know, it could be that he is dealing with the question emotionally rather than in a dry-objective-exam fashion.
dmsilev
@Jim, Foolish Literalist: Yet of course, Obama is responsible for all the job losses etc. that happened from the day he took office going forward. Those that weren’t Jimmy Carter’s fault, of course.
And remember, the GOP is the party of “personal responsibility”.
hitchhiker
When I first heard that Jeb was going to run for president, I thought it had to be an onion joke. It’s ALWAYS been obvious that his brother’s catastrophic lollapolooza of an administration meant he could not win.
That every single person in the country didn’t know this is how I can tell there are still plenty of idiots. I just hope they all forget to vote.
dmsilev
@Renie: Well, there have been those stories about the Bush campaign embracing austerity. Maybe the troll budget has been cut back?
Elie
@beltane:
I dono. Why? The best way to avenge his brother’s “reputation and honor” would be to get elected, not die trying to win verbal sparing matches with Forrest Trump. I thought that Babs was way more pragmatic than that and wouldn’t waste time with trying to make that case now. If he were elected, there would be plenty of time to “launder” the past then. This is Pickett’s charge at Gettysburgh. He is in a hole and Trump and other opponents are shooting down, making it a massacre. And for what? It is completely non-important for him to try to resolve what his brother did. Its history past what he can do anything to change.
Jeb!? might still somehow end up the Republican candidate, but I sure see it less and less as each week goes by and he can’t get his candidacy to walk and breathe. Its on full life support at the moment.
Elie
@Cervantes:
But that means he does not have advisors who are competent and/or that he listens to. This is a fool’s mission.
Cervantes
@Elie:
Let’s just say I thought you might agree that sometimes emotional commitment overwhelms analysis.
Mike J
@greennotGreen: A big tough truck might be useful in dealing with Tacoma’s potholes.
Elie
@dmsilev:
Jeb! will embrace anything. He has no vision beyond wanting to be President and he would do or say anything to get that prize. He is just casting about to see if something — anything – sticks to gain him some traction to help his moribund campaign. He is desperate and it is showing more and more the way he can’t stop Possum Head from slapping him around. He is a punching bag for Trump to demonstrate his Trumpness. Not one of his brother’s former advisors have said a peep in his defense. Not.One
Mike J
@Iowa Old Lady:
Republicans in general tend to be thin skinned. They think it means they’re tough. Which sounds bizarre to liberals, but it seems to be what they think.
The other day there was a republican whining on imgur about how he felt all alone on a liberal site. I got downvoted to -30 or so when I told him we’d use small words to make him feel included.
Brachiator
@Amir Khalid:
It’s still not clear yet how these pre-game show antics, Trump-mania, and the preference poll popularity of Trump, Fiorina and Carson will affect actual primary voting.
Jeb! and the other mainstream candidates are definitely under-performing and Jeb! himself seems incredibly weak as a presidential candidate, but who else does the GOP really have as strong alternatives?
Elie
@Cervantes:
Yes — it does. Believe me, I know that in my professional life with some of the clients and projects that I have struggled to manage. It has to be one of the worst feelings for me to give a client what I think is sound, rational advise, only to have it ignored because the client is wedded to an idea that is just not possible the way they want it.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
Not long ago, someone said in these threads that the Republican candidates are all running for head of state, not for head of government, in a country where the president has both functions. Another person said Donald Trump is like Zaphod Beeblebrox, but with only one head.
I think both statements are correct.
trollhattan
Someone earlier posted about the woman Cologne mayoral candidate who was stabbed by a German nationalist (have I heard that before?) about those verdammen Syrians.
Based on the weapon of choice, am thinking not just gun nuts are compensating.
sparrow
@srv: This is just stupid. Vote for a candidate based on issues, or perhaps electability ( a reasonable argument for voting Hillary, though not one I support personally). But based on the fact that some supporters rub you the wrong way? Honestly? LOTS of Hillary supporters pissed me off big time during the whole PUMA thing, but as you all like to say, I would have crawled over glass to vote for her if she had defeated Obama. I find this sniping about Bernie just sad. And honestly, proof that Hillary supporters are more nervous than they want to let on. If you weren’t worried, you’d just ignore the guy.
Gravenstone
@dmsilev: I suspect rTr is holding out for a better deal on the piece rate posting. Got to make one last grab at all that Brinks Truck cash!
Mike in NC
@Elie: Some 90% of his advisors are retreads who worked for Dubya. In other words, sycophants.
Cervantes
@sparrow:
“Pathetic” was more the word I had in mind!
It’s like, well, it’s like Juggernaut Trump taking pot-shots at Peewee Bush.
Elie
@Brachiator:
You are of course right, but its hard to see how all this plays out given the incredible dissonance of the whole situation… and juxtaposed with the psycho-drama at the House, its hard not to think that the entire Republican Party is in major catastrophic failure. Its hard to know (for those who would want to try), how it can be saved from itself and what levers could be pulled in order to try. It is now populated top down with truly bizarre idealogues who have seemingly no interest in actually living in reality, much less governing. In medicine, when a limb or organ becomes so dysfunctional as to poison the larger body, it has to go. Problem is that these people are distributed throughout our political system and its hard to figure out how to manage “clamping them off” except through the relatively long electoral process. The media could expedite by talking about things truthfully, but of course, no.
Citizen Alan
The thing that always frustrates me about 9/11 is when I try to imagine what would have happened if Al Gore had become President and I can really only see two possible outcomes.
Option 1: 9/11 happens on schedule.The Republicans all loudly blame Gore for it. Impeachment proceedings.
Option 2: The Gore administration’s stronger commitment to anti-terrorism results in 9/11 being prevented. Republicans openly mock the absurd idea that a handful of terrorists could ever successfully take over jet airliners armed only with box cutters and then fly them into buildings, and they claim instead that the whole thing was a “Wag The Dog” scam by Gore to distract people from all the investigations about that one time he called a Chinese donor and used the wrong phone. Impeachment proceedings.
SWMBO
@Elie: Bush 41 on realizing that Bush 43 had totally screwed Jeb?’s chances of winning the WH.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jWJHCRVs4AY
trollhattan
@Gravenstone:
Soon those Brinks. Trucks. will downscale to the adult trike with Igloo cooler in back like our neighborhood tamale lady uses.
Trike. Bike. Cooler.
Elie
@Mike in NC:
But even retreads should be able to assess certain realities! If they were just mindless retreads, I would expect them to be writing editorials in Jeb’s defense or some such. I don’t see that at all.
Baud
@sparrow:
It’s not about Bernie at all. Everyone here will enthuestically support him if he wins the nom.
scav
There’s a bit of sniping about Bernie, but far more nonsense spewing of tin-pot rhetorical slights of hand, obfuscation of subject, anecdote-worshipping, bottom-crawling chicken-dancing and mocking of same.
trollhattan
@SWMBO:
I’m verklempt. Is little Jebbers cracking open a Bud longneck at the end of that video?
Elie
@SWMBO:
Wow! thanks for sharing that! Hmmm — it does give some insight on what might be driving Jeb! emotionally.
@Cervantes: this echoes what you alluded to
Elie
The Bush story would make a great opera — esp I Jeb! goes on to lose. Last scene would have Jeb stabbing his brother then jumping out of a window…
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@trollhattan: there’s another moment like that isn’t there, the old man getting weepy and saying something like “this boy won’t let you down”. the old coot came close to saying, “I’m sorry you elected the wrong son”. Back when we thought Jeb$ was the Smart One.
Mnemosyne
@Elie:
I actually do think that, like many New Yorkers, Trump is still pissed off about 9/11 and thinks that W fucked up. They weren’t allowed to say it while W was in office, but now that he’s gone, Trump feels no compunction to play nice over 9/11 anymore.
John Revolta
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): My unprovable theory has always been that the Saudis reassured the Bushes that bin Laden was all talk and no action, so they ignored him until it was too late. When W was sitting there speechless with “The Pet Goat,” he was thinking, Bandar, you asshole, you fucked us over!
This…………….actually makes a lot of sense. I’m annoyed that I never thought of it myself.
Cervantes
@Elie:
You may be right but, sorry, I have no idea what you mean.
Roger Moore
@dmsilev:
ITYM from the moment his election became obviously inevitable, i.e. when the financial crisis hit. All that damage to the economy was a result of Wall Street anticipating Obama’s anti-business stances, not because of anything Bush did.
chopper
@Gin & Tonic:
would you believe “messenger bags full of nickels”?
gene108
@Mnemosyne:
Yup. Well said.
beltane
@Mnemosyne: Yes, Trump is just echoing local sentiment. I left NY just months before 9/11, but almost all the friends and family I left behind blame W for the attacks to some degree or another. Unlike the people who experienced 9/11 as scary TV, many NYers were impacted both physically and economically by the attacks. They are rightfully pissed and on this issue at least, Trump speaks for them.
chopper
I absolutely love how El Jebe is hiding behind his big brother from mean old Donald Trump.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): Bandar’s response? “You fucked up! You trusted us!”
Amir Khalid
@Baud:
As I’ve said before, if Bernie is the nominee I WILL NOT vote for him.
Elie
@Mnemosyne:
Yeah, makes sense. But hasn’t he jacked Bush up on other issues also?
As for the “betrayal” (definitely possible – prob likely) by the Saudis, why did the Bushes then keep the Saudi tongue bath going with ever deeper commitment to the Saudi agenda in the ME? They jumped to keep the Saudis dominant even as the Saudis hosted a variety of terrorists that continued to jam up and humiliate the US. Obama’s strategy to balance a little more with the Shia leadership in Iran, to play these off each other, makes more sense. Alls we have gotten from the Saudis, besides 911, is ISIS. The Bushes helped make that happen — which belies that they felt any betrayal by the Saudis at any time.
Baud
@Amir Khalid:
Splitter.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
Splitter! [shakes fist at former candidate Baud]
Mnemosyne
@Amir Khalid:
I’m sure you’re not even going to donate money to him, you evil Bernie-hating person you!
Brachiator
@Elie:
Yep. Republicans cultivated the Tea Party and other crazies thinking that it would give them additional resources to use against the Democrats. Instead, it has sowed chaos within the party itself, bringing chaos and confusion to the House and to the presidential campaign.
But I don’t think the GOP are not interested in governing. They have convinced themselves that they are the only legitimate political party, and that their obstructionism is their patriotic duty. But you are right that they are delusional. They practically shut down the government over the federal debt ceiling issue, but seemed astounded when financial markets reacted by downgrading the country’s debt rating. Despite reality biting them in the arse over this, they are ready to do it again.
And the wild card is that there appears to be a hard core of the Republican base that is entirely satisfied with the chaos and delusion, and want more.
There is some indication from Beltway insiders that lame duck Boehner (imagine that!) and other Republicans are trying to craft some last minute deals before new House leadership is chosen. There is still business that has to get done, including tax legislation, before the end of the year.
The GOP used to appear to be disciplined, and there were always warnings about the supposed might of GOP money and their message machine. Funny how you don’t hear this much anymore.
Whether the GOP can recover is as big a story as which of the presidential contenders will win their klown kar derby.
Villago Delenda Est
@Mike in NC: War criminals, actually. All should be in dank, dark cells forever.
Baud
@trollhattan:
Hey! I’m still in it to win it!
Mnemosyne
@Elie:
Conservatives think they don’t have any choice but to stick with the Saudis, no matter how much they screw us over. The other choice is to ally with places like Iran that embarrassed us 30 years ago, and we certainly can’t do that.
Villago Delenda Est
@Brachiator: They’re nihilists. Every last one of them.
Elie
@Cervantes:
The role of emotional commitments over rationality.
trollhattan
@Baud:
In that case, know well the Amir Kahlid vote is still in play.
Anoniminous
@sparrow:
We’re Democrats, It’s what we do.
I’m a Bernie guy* but I’ll crash the gates with a Brinks truck to vote for Hillary if she’s the nominee.
ETA: and so’s my wife!
Roger Moore
@Brachiator:
You still hear a fair amount about their money and message machine; it’s only the discipline where they’ve obviously gone off the rails.
Villago Delenda Est
@Brachiator:
Mittbott 2016 is tanned, lubed, and recent memory and software upgrades make him more exciting than ever!
Elie
@Brachiator:
The only sign of hope that I have is that even after you allocate the favorability percents for the candidates among Republicans, you still have 30-35 or 40%~ who do not seem to have a choice among the candidates. Maybe this is a small nucleus for reform of the party? Of course, these are not evenly distributed among the states, but something about them is different than those who prefer one of the crazies.
John Revolta
@Elie: Oil is thicker than blood.
beltane
@Mnemosyne: Sticking with the Saudis has also been quite lucrative for the conservative establishment. Their loyalty is bought. Even if 9/11 was a betrayal, it was one which provided W with immense power and (initially) popularity, and which resulted in a financial windfall for Bush administration loyalists and hangers one. Most unprincipled people would welcome a “betrayal” like this any day.
Elie
@Villago Delenda Est:
That IS true. What a horror, but not unthinkable and the stink of the current selection might make him more attractive than ever.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@trollhattan: Baud dropped out of the race? My god!
They’ll recover, and if I had to bet I would put my money (barring any major events or scandals) on Clinton being neck-and-neck, or maybe having a small lead, against Bush, Rubio or Kasich a year from now. I think “They want to raise your taxes” is still a potent message for a lot of people.
ETA: has anyone mentioned Katrina to Governor HeKeptUsSafe?
Elie
@John Revolta:
Well that Iranian agreement has put a little monkey wrench in that for a little bit… We are going to have to wrench that relationship apart slowly and would probably only happen if a Democrat is elected. Again, competing interests and slow but steady withdrawal from the ME. We have to leave them “to themselves”. Other problem: Israel and protecting it.
Mnemosyne
@beltane:
It’s true — once you’re willing to accept the deaths of 3000+ of your countrymen in order to sustain and extend your own power, the sky is pretty much the limit. I just don’t think that the Bush administration consciously made that choice and somehow approved or arranged 9/11. I think it happened and they rolled with it. To me, it really is weirdly similar to the Reichstag burning, in that it’s now generally accepted that the Reichstag was burned by a lone nut and the Nazis exploited it to the hilt afterwards.
(Yeah, I brought the Godwin. So sue me.)
Anoniminous
@Brachiator:
Good comment.
The GOP of the Reagan Years (1978 – 2000) is dead. For most of that time the Democratic Party controlled Congress so the Stupid Conservative Shit was kept somewhat under control. Over the last 10 years the True Conservatives* have slowly gotten control and now they have to govern and … SURPRISE! SURPRISE! … they can’t do it because “drowning the Federal government in a bathtub” is not conducive to making, e.g., rational economic policy, for a scientific and technologically advanced post-industrial country.
Like, duh.
The GOP of 2015 cannot and will not survive because they are a Southern Party of old white men and old white men are a vanishing demographic, even in the South.
* mostly white males, mostly southern, mostly ignorant; mostly supported by southern white males with no education, no-skill jobs, and no teeth
Roger Moore
@Mnemosyne:
I might use Pearl Harbor as a better metaphor than the Reichstag fire. I don’t think that we had advance knowledge of the sneak attack, but Roosevelt certainly took full advantage of it after it happened.
Elie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I don’t think so. I think that their gyroscope has a big wobble that is not going to hold together enough to do as you suggest. I they weren’t having the major problem in the House, maybe. But their candidacies are going to play against the backdrop of their “leaders” putting the full faith and credit of the US in jeopardy — AGAIN. Sorry but that and the fact that not one of their leading candidates can even describe what a debt ceiling is and do anything to help bring consensus to the bomb throwers in the House. NO — not this time. The Democrats have an opportunity as well to put the whole part on a gigantic slip and slide by defining and calling out what this is –an attempt to take over with their agenda without due electoral process.
Brachiator
@Elie: One more thing
Two problems here. The media is not and has never been the monolithic beacon of truth.
Also, the media that Balloon Juicers love to berate is largely toothless and ignored by the majority of Americans (with the possible exception of Fox News).
On top of all this, the traditional media is collapsing almost as fast as Republican leadership, with nothing clearly emerging to take its place.
Mike in NC
@Elie: Read “House of Bush, House of Saud: The Secret Relationship Between the World’s Two Most Powerful Dynasties” by Craig Unger
SFAW
@Anoniminous:
Congratulations! Thank FSM that the SCOTUS made that legal.
sigaba
@Elie: Oil.
Also the perception that there’s a balance of power between Saudi Arabia and Iran, and we have to go with one or the other.
Also oil.
Saudi Arabia is also a violent autocracy that mercilessly reigns-in “islamists”, it’s a government whose legitimacy is fundamentally based on a hereditary monarchy, not, an appeal to Islam.
Oil is also a significant factor.
Saudi Arabia, due mostly to geography, isn’t mixed up in a bunch of nationalist wars, nor does it have contentious disputes with Russia, Turkey, Pakistan, Afghanistan. And where it does, in places like Yemen, the US gives it a free hand because where the eff is Yemen, amirite?
Saudi Arabia, though a rich oil nation, has pretty much nothing else, it has no tech sector, it has no agriculture, it’s completely dependent on the US to secure its export market, partner in its defense, and to protect its import of pretty much every modern necessity and convenience. Iran has oil, but it also has a more diversified economy and would not be as dependent on a protector and wouldn’t fit neatly into the mercantilist box we stick Saudi Arabia into.
Don’t forget oil, too.
Villago Delenda Est
@Roger Moore: He had a great assist from Hitler, who immediately gave FDR cover for a “Europe First” policy.
Elie
I think that the natural entropy of the ultra right wing pairing with the rigid rules based ideology of the Christian fundamentalists is unsustainable. That fat cat corporatists that were part of the Reagan revolution are a little bit on the outs, (as Jeb!’s situation attests) My biggest fear is that they don’t destroy or severely damage our system on their way out.
srv
Villago Delenda Est
@sigaba: In the wake of the takeover of the Grand Mosque in 1979, the House of Saud gave the batshit crazy Wahhabi Imams more power, figuring that more religion was the way to keep the Islamists more or less controlled. A lot of the Westernization reforms prior to that time were reversed, and KSA became more backwards, socially, than it had been, to the delight of the Wahhabi.
SFAW
@Villago Delenda Est:
I think I heard that he also had a control knob added, allowing him to turn his excitingness up to 11.
Anoniminous
@SFAW:
Herself – the wife – is of the female persuasion.
But she’s still a Bernie guy.
SFAW
@Anoniminous:
Yeah, I figured, but couldn’t let it go to waste.
bystander
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I found her response shocking. “Surely you’re not suggesting that the man who didn’t lift a finger after getting a security notice about OBL could have any responsibility.”
Trump’s comments are up there with McCarthy telling the truth about the Filegate Committee.
Elie
@sigaba:
Of course. I am not ignoring oil. But you shouldn’t ignore other strategic realities that may not longer work to keep the Saudis in their unique position vis a vis the US. There are dynamics afoot in the ME and changing and increasingly unstable allies such as Turkey, the demographic “bomb” that will continue to grow with too many young men with no money such as in the stans — Uzbekistan, etc and the rest. The Saudis no longer can work their magic as the top dog alone. They are under increasing threat and their ability to control the many monsters they have created is slipping.
Anoniminous
@SFAW:
And we have come to expect no less. :-)
bystander
@SFAW: The control knob is right next to the self-destruct button. Sometimes he misses.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Elie: I hope you’re right, but I don’t know how much the debt ceiling folderol will have a lasting impact. Immigration has a bigger chance of blowing up on them, I think, especially if Trump is still shooting his mouth off a year from now. But who knows?
Elie
@bystander:
@SFAW:
Y’all make me laugh… THANKS!
SFAW
@Anoniminous:
Yeah, I figure I’m not in any danger of being referred to as “respected commenter SFAW,” but I might have a good shot at “perpetually annoying non-troll commenter,” or perhaps “lame-ass half-witted ‘joke’-making commenter.”
sigaba
@Villago Delenda Est: Right but when the Saudi royal family concedes something to the Wahabbis, the US writes it off as just a cost of doing business, the oil must flow, this is what has to happen.
With Iran it’s not about doing what it takes to keep the oil flowing, the religious orthodoxy is the first principle of the state, it’s not some minority the state has to mollify. From the US perspective, it is the state.
This perception is clearly incomplete, but US policymakers clearly start from the idea that the Saudi royal family tolerates muslim extremism out of necessity and in furtherance of the final goal: keeping the tankers full, final destination, The West. Iran doesn’t concede anything to keep the tankers full, and they have no compunction about sending the tankers where it suits them.
Elie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Of course, we can only speculate.. I do believe and know,however, that there is a built in entropy to every complex system… Timing and tipping points are always easier to spot after the fact. I am hoping (I guess?) that the time is sooner rather than later, but as you say, who can know…
Brachiator
@Anoniminous:
There are currently 31 Republicans, 18 Democrats, and one independent that hold the office of governor in the states. Additionally, the GOP controls many state legislatures, and gerrymandering for now allows the GOP to dominate the federal House of Representatives.
There is a considerable number of young conservatives and supposed libertarians to feed the GOP in the future. Women, especially younger unmarried women appear to lean to the Democrats, according to some polls, but this still tends to undermine the argument that the GOP is the party of old nearly dead white men.
And of course we have voter suppression and gerrymandering schemes that the GOP use to maintain power on the federal level even when they continue to lose the majority of votes in national elections.
The GOP may be on the ropes, but they still have some energy to fight back against any decline.
@Roger Moore
The impact of their money has been blunted by the odd appeal of Trump and Carson to some of the GOP base. Neither of these candidates get the big Super-PAC money.
Shana
@Citizen Alan: I’ve tried that exercise too. I don’t see it coming out any better than you do. At the very least Gore would have kept the folks who figured out bin Laden was behind the 83 bombing and acted on that info instead of kicking all those folks out the way Bush did.
Villago Delenda Est
@sigaba: It is indeed all about the oil, as far as the US-KSA relationship is concerned. Human rights are a weak afterthought at best.
Elie
@sigaba:
…then there is the backdrop of sustained competition between the Sunni and Shia. The Shia are by far the minority but like you say, certainly realities of how the Iranians are organized right now, may put them at an advantage. Did you notice how the Iranians bitched at the Saudis about how they mismanaged the crush crowd deaths at the Haj? That was quite open — minor — but pretty unusual. The Iranians have educated young people and though repressed, are a way more modern culture than the Sauds
Mike J
@Brachiator:
I was thinking about that when I was reading Sherry Turkle’s latest in the Times in which she talks about mobile device use leading to measurable lack of empathy.
MattF
@SFAW: In fact, the dial is mislabelled– it goes from 1.00 to 1.11.
Roger Moore
@Villago Delenda Est:
We were already edging closer and closer to outright war with Germany anyway. Even if Hitler hadn’t declared war immediately, a U-boat was going to sink one of our ships before too long, and that would have provided all the justification needed to declare war on the formal ally of the country we were already at war with.
If there’s an interesting failure to declare war, it was Japan’s unwillingness to declare war on the USSR, which really hurt Germany. The US was able to ship a lot of war material to the USSR without interference by reflagging ships as Soviet and sending them to Vladivostok, and the quiet on the Far East front let the USSR withdraw experienced troops from there to shore up the defenses around Moscow at a critical point in 1941. Japan going all-in against the USSR in June, 1941 is an interesting alternative history I haven’t seen anyone play with seriously.
Brachiator
@Villago Delenda Est:
I know! Was there creaking noise not too long ago of Mittbott offering himself as a compromise candidate?
Can you imagine the fun, the sheer comedy of Trump and Mittbott fighting it out for the nomination?
Then again, if Romney found a way to become the nominee again, the ghost of the original “tanned, rested, and ready” guy would burst out of his crypt and applaud like a sonuvabitch.
bystander
I was just over at Driftglass and he posted a clip from Wedding Crashers. The intro ad was over 2 minutes long and it was about PooPourri, something you spray in the bowl before rather than something you spray in the air after. Only on the internet, kids, only on the internet.
Another Holocene Human
I was supposed to do something today, but then I got a migraine. FML.
dogwood
@Elie:
I love your optimism, and wish I could share it. But the problem isn’t that Republican candidates don’t know what the debt ceiling is, it’s that the American people don’t know what it is. Just calling it the “debt ceiling” is in and of itself misleading. Just the kind of Orwellian speak that republicans have mastered and democrats acquiesce to. Case in point. “Defunding Planned Parenthood” is incredibly misleading by design. It suggests that the PP is some sort of government agency. The government reimburses PP for services provided at the same rate it reimburses hospitals, doctors, clinics etc. No one says we are funding those entities. Why Democrats don’t see how complicit they are in accepting the language of the far right is a mystery to me. Until progressives use language that reflects the truth, it will be hard to change the perception of voters on many critical issues. I don’t see that happening.
Karen
@sparrow:
I’m not worried about anything but a GOP President. If Bernie is the Dem Candidate we will have a Republican Pres. That is all I’m worried about. We have the Supreme Court to worry about.
Like gay marriage being legal? Like safety nets for the poor and disabled? Do you like any program that keeps people alive?
Then you care to keep GOP from gaining the Presidency. That means you vote for the Dem candidate that will be more likely to win. Not one that has no chance in hell to win. Then you hold your nose as I will be and vote for HRC. She’s far from perfect but if she wasn’t capable of winning, the GOP wouldn’t be attempting to sabotage her.
Elie
@Brachiator:
I agree that it is best to assess one’s situation with steely eyed candor, but I think you are over weighting their strength and under-weighing progressive directional pull. Yes, we do have all the things you say are happening on the right, but we also have much more pull on social liberty and real freedom (not authoritarianism disguising as freedom). We are still talking about a minority of a minority. That said, they are very fearful people who are both emboldened by their fear, but also make weaker by it. We have to find places to make their weakness more obvious — even if it adds more entropy.. if they are wobbling, and its only going to get worse, we have to make sure that we make the wobble worse. Giving attention and support to their most dysfunctional candidates like Trump and Carson is dangerous, however… but, it helps make the wobble worse.
trollhattan
@bystander:
The one with the gorgeous, perfectly accented English girl? Yeah, too crazy for mere words.
Elie
@dogwood:
But you read all of where we are as negative. These people are acting out like they are because they have not been able to block the fundamental progress that we have made over the last few years. Yes, they are angry and crazy, but they have not been successful in stopping the increasing real freedom and progress in this country. Why cede them all the power? Who goes into battle only lauding the opposition? If we are to get out of this, we will have to do with our strengths. Yes, we prepare for battle – we know our enemy, but we focus on building and sustaining our strengths. My question to progressives here is do you think we have any? It doesn’t sound like it. All boo hoo doom and gloom
Elie
@Karen:
If Bernie is the candidate, something real bad would have happened to Hillary and we would be already in a bad place. Don’t mean that as an insult to Bernie. Its just a fact. He has never bested her in national polls and something real bad would have to happen for that to flip.
I'mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet
@Brachiator: A good indication of whether anything can get done before Boehner leaves is the transportation bill – the temporary extension passed in the summer expires on the 29th:
I wouldn’t be surprised if they kick the can on that for another few months. It’s hard for me to think they’re going to be sensible on the budget and the debt ceiling either, but who knows….
Cheers,
Scott.
Brachiator
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet:
What a mess. But you may be right. What happens with this bill might be a hint of how Congress and the president will get along in the short term.
Regnad Kcin
@Villago Delenda Est: in a “dull, dark dock” I think you mean
trollhattan
@Elie:
Pretty much my take. The nom is in her grasp so long as…whatever doesn’t occur first. And the next “shocking Hillary revelation” will have a hard time shocking any undecided voters, because they’ve been hearing “shocking Hillary revelations” since, oh, 1992. The Republicans really look like chocolate-smeared kids denying they stole the Hershey’s bar.
I want the candidate who will crush the Republican and sweep some congressional seats along with her/him. Crushing Republicans is far more important to me than tax rate schedule positions and I think Hillary is much more likely to do this than Bernie. The debate helped me form that conclusion.
Another Holocene Human
@bystander: You can buy that in the checkout line at Ace and I had a friend who bought that for her guest bathroom before those ads ran.
You spray it in the bowl and it’s supposed to inhibit stinky odors from escaping when you flush.
I have allergies so it’s much kinder than those high sillage perfumes or nasty room sprays that make me sick.
Brachiator
@Elie:
Oh, I hope the Democrats do well. But the GOP can continue to obstruct and cause problems even as they become more of a minority party.
And I also hope that the GOP continue to flounder on the national level, but who knows, all this present craziness might settle down into something much less chaotic.
Another Holocene Human
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: The GOP has a hard on for fucking up transportation. Everybody knows it’s important, so lets speak to the id of petty bourgeois Dunning-Kruger victims and scrawl our Lysenkoist visions acrost the landscape.
This. Is. Going. To. Suck.
Lard knows they have to raise gas tax and pay more for transit and back off of the urban-renewal crush all in its path and damn the human cost model of highway building. They need to repair Northeast Corridor rail infrastructure and commerce essential bridges nationwide. But these GOP klowns? Yeah, right.
dogwood
@Elie:
I probably wasn’t very clear. I am totally optimistic that progressive gains are always inevitable even if the progress is slow and painful. What I don’t share with many progressives is the idea that the Republican Party is going to pay any real price for its irresponsibility. Their voter base is too reliable. For the foreseeable future they will be mucking up the system. Since polling suggests that democratic policies are viewed more favorablely that right wing policies, it seems obvious to me that the party’s problems are political rather than ideological. At that level I don’t see the party making much progress right now.
Another Holocene Human
@trollhattan: Until we win both chambers, there is no tax rate schedule. I think Hilary can beat the GOP and we need that veto badly.
SFAW
@efgoldman:
And you believed him? He’s a politician, they all lie.
Besides, I thought you had already earned a “respected commenter” designation, or was it “beloved commenter”? Not to mention your longstanding “token Vo Dilun commenter.”
Baud! 2016
Elie
@Brachiator:
Imbedded in your reply seems to be a sense of doom that doesn’t seem like you have the optimism to shake. Of course, it would help if we saw or heard aggressive responses by Democrats to “make the wobble” worse.. but I am thinking that the Democratic silence is equal parts caution to not make something worse that can damage the country and also looking for just the right place to make the wobble catastrophic and unsaveable. You have to look for the right kill shot opportunity and till then you keep everything in play, allowing your opponent to set up the opportunity. Obama has been pretty good with that — not perfect and he’s gotten roughed up, but in general, he has steered a pretty good course for the ship of state in very rough seas. I try to model his unshakeable quiet strength while analyzing reality with clear eyes… I think he, his staff, Harry Reid and Pilosi talk together a lot and scheme. I am sure they are modeling a series of what-ifs in prep for God knows what. But I am a problem solver by nature and being an advocate for rationality as superior, I know that our side, and our people throughout this country — know what is happening and the risks. I would say probably a healthy percent of Republicans (25-30%) probably also know their party is cocked up and things need to change. Its how to set that up.
SFAW
@Another Holocene Human:
And economic recovery programs (other thanthose tax cuts which will get the Economy roaring back, of course).
And public school funding
And anything designed to help people get out of poverty
And anything designed to help anyone who is not already in the one percent.
usw.
Karen
@Elie:
He has never bested her in national polls and something real bad would have to happen for that to flip.
My criteria is a lot more down and dirty. I love what Bernie has to say but it’s pie in the sky. He will never win in the general because he’s 74 years old, socialist and Jewish. Because I’m Jewish myself.
In this uberChristian country, you really think a Jewish guy would win? Especially a socialist Jewish guy?
Elie
@dogwood:
Well, maybe you are right, but lets play ball. We’ll see what people are ready for. I think the tipping point is closer to the surface than you do, but that is ok.
Elie
@Karen:
Not the socialist but sure, a more secular Jew could win. Not a doubt in my mind. Bernie IS too old, however. Also.
trollhattan
@Another Holocene Human:
Agreed. It was a random topic to illustrate that whatever policy differences there are between the two, they are far less important to me than the Democrats presenting the candidate who can crush the Republicans in thirteen months.
As an aside, I would relish listening to the eventual WASPy Republican candidate tell Bernie than they are more of a friend to Israel. Hilarity ensues.
Elie
– And I really think that the too old thing is for real — independent of Bernie. Listening to a conversation on NPR radio about a 64 year old Republican Cong representative running for governor and some thought if he waited another 4 years he would be too old to run for Governor of a state (WA). Its just a very hard fact of life I think that the age thing is also a factor in Biden’s decision analysis(he is 72).
Mike J
@efgoldman:
I think we really need to talk out loud about the pedophile rule that requires a majority of Republicans to pass any legislation.
Baud
@efgoldman:
I agree.
Brachiator
@efgoldman:
There’s a few Republicans I’d like to choke, and will gladly point them out to you.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Elie: I like Joe Biden a lot, but I think he’s making a big mistake if he gets in (as the gossip suggests he’s going to). I think he’s confusing sympathy for his personal situation and the love of the Beltway (partly fueled by their disdain for HRC) for broad political support that isn’t there. I think th effect of his candidacy will just be three more months of “this is how much everyone hates Hillary!”
Elie
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
I agree and hope the rumours are not true… BIG mistake for him personally and not helpful to the party. Hope he decides to go out with class and not as a beat up has-been. He has NO shot.
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
@Elie:
Are the new rumors different from the usual press speculation? I’ve always assumed he wouldn’t enter.
Elie
@Baud:
You got me… I haven’t heard any new rumours but was just following on what #174 said (Jim)… I hope he is smart enough to not do it.
Cervantes
@Karen:
Some, possibly relevant (pre-debate) thoughts from Bill Curry:
As I say, some thoughts.
Jim, Foolish Literalist
@Baud: me too, but he keeps the rumors alive. the gossip is he’s calling donors/fund-raisers and state party people this weekend
Baud
@Jim, Foolish Literalist:
Agreed. He needs to end this soon.
Elie
@Cervantes:
Of course, you are not mentioning the thumb on the scale that the media put on Hillary’s numbers with un-flagging energetic discussion of emails and Benhazi for the last 6 months. The constant polls referring to her untrustworthiness, etc. That was free negative press and even after the debate,conservative web sites were announcing him the winner.
Karen
@efgoldman:
Repubs are already attacking him for it.
Cervantes
@Elie:
Those were Bill Curry’s thoughts. Feel free to ignore them if it helps.
As for all this, let me ask you something: do you think the behavior of the media towards Hillary Clinton is going to change any time soon?
Elie
@Cervantes:
No. Do you? Why is that important… ? And you think that Bernie would not start getting some head winds if he became the front runner? Oh boy! Also, what do you mean by “if it helps” Helps to do what? You brought up Bill Curry. I couldn’t care less.
Listen, I don’t think Hillary is perfect and I do like some of Bernie’s views and believe in his very effective leadership — in the Senate and as a gad fly. He is honest and his values and views are worthwhile for us to hear and to change us. I don’t think, however, that he can win — I don’t. Of course, we will see what he does in the next month. If he has another gear, we will see it starting now or he will fall back.
Brachiator
@Elie:
I don’t think that analysis has to include either pessimism or optimism to be accurate.
I agree with you for the most part, but I also see how the GOP is playing a long game. I noted their continued obstructionism in an earlier thread. Look at executive and judicial nominees:
Obama may be doing the best he can, but he has been materially prevented from effective governing. Obviously, I hope this changes, and would like to see ways to elect more Democrats to Congress.
But what I might hope for is an entirely separate thing from looking at the present mess as clearly as possible.
Elie
@Brachiator:
All you say is true. But if that were totally true, we would not have ACA, a treaty with Iran and a number of other successes. Our economy is not perfect, but out of the ditch it was in when he came into office. Again, no matter what the successes, your glass is always half full. That is a feature. Ok –duly noted. Its always good to hear your analysis and thoughts anyway.. they are factually correct but I am not sure how only a negative conclusion allows you to do much except wait for and make note of the next catastrophe. Gotta solve problems, man — best we can. Do our best, lean into it — then CELEBRATE the successes. That is called PROGRESS, right? Like, what progressives believe in. Incremental, sometimes difficult change forward.
Cervantes
@Elie:
Curry’s comments were relevant given the remark about electability made by the person I was addressing — explicitly not you, by the way, but I did think the relevance was obvious given that context.
As for why I asked you about the media, I thought you were complaining that, compared to Sanders, Clinton’s numbers were “artificially” low because the media treat her unfairly. That’s why I asked when you think this artificial state of affairs will end.
PS:
Hey, maybe Curry’s comments are relevant to you after all.
Fancy that!
Cervantes
@efgoldman:
And that is very soon, in geological terms, but I’ll be quite lucky if I live to see it!
Elie
@Cervantes:
Ok. Sorry. Didn’t mean to butt into your conversation with someone else.
Peace
Karen
@efgoldman:
You’re correct about Villalba. It was Raw Story and they’re the ones who mentioned Sander’s religion not Villalba,
Brachiator
@Elie:
I will also happily write about the next Democratic victory, if it comes, and speculate on prospects of future success.
SiubhanDuinne
@Regnad Kcin:
In solemn silence.
Jeffro
@I’mNotSureWhoIWantToBeYet: I don’t remember seeing candidates so obviously running specifically & primarily to derail other candidates:
– Trump is clearly running so that Bush won’t be the nominee
– Graham is clearly running so that Paul won’t be the nominee
It’s like they have no other reason to run, other than to take out X
celticdragonchick
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
Best explanation I have heard so far.
Jeffro
@Mnemosyne (iPhone): I think W & Co. assumed the attack was going to be relatively small and overseas someplace (despite the ‘Bin Laden determined to strike in the US’ of the intelligence report), and rather than do anything, they figured, “eh, we’ll deal with it and maybe even use it as an excuse to do what we want over there…like take a shot at Saddam or something.”
No excuses for them of course…it just seems to be the simplest explanation of their blase’ attitude leading up to 9/11. And then once they got their feet under them, it was all the rationale they needed to do any & everything they wanted…
Ken
@Brachiator:
Maybe, but how do you unskew those polls? I suppose you could use the second-choice data? “If we assume that 90% of Trump voters suddenly have a change of heart in the voting booth, 13% of them will go to Bush…”
BTW, anyone tracking which candidates are actually on the primary ballots? IIRC there’s paperwork in each state – you don’t automatically get on the New Hampshire ballot just because you got to sit at the Fox big table.
mclaren
@bystander:
There, fixed that for ya.
mclaren
@trollhattan:
America is the greatest nation in the country. Things are more like they are now than they have ever been. We must make sure that the Communist octopus sings its swan song.
Because that’s just the way the ball crumbles.
Remember: if you teach a man to make a fire you’ll keep him warm for a day, but if you set a man on fire you’ll keep him warm for the rest of his life.
mclaren
@Elie:
We have an historical parallel: the Whig party before the Civil War.
As a national party, the Republicans are now in respiratory collapse and cardiac arrythmia. Trump’s application of 300 joules to the heart via paddles isn’t helping revive the patient.
However, at the local level, the situation’s very different. Republicans remain firmly in control of the state legislatures and governorships.
How that plays out going forward remains to be seen. Will voters in individual states rebel against the cronyism and incompetence of the Scott Walkers and the Rick Scotts? That’s not clear.
One big reason that the Republican party remains alive locally is that the entire center of the U.S. remains deep red due to mass out-migration of young people. If you live in the center of the United States, you have to leave for either coast to find a job as soon as you graduate from high school. This has pushed both coasts into deep blue and the center of the country into deep red political territory. Those demographics are not going to suddenly reverse.
Brachiator
@Ken:
Polls vary over time in their significance. Early polls are the least significant of all.
Who you like is not necessarily the same as who you will actually vote for (no matter how sincerely you swear to a pollster that your preference represents a promise to vote for a particular candidate).
For example, Trump leads in preference polling but note that no one has ever voted for Trump in anything, so there is really no such thing as Trump voters. We know who people like for various reasons, but it will not be until actual primaries and caucuses that voters will actually have to commit to a candidate. And here, how a candidate does in early primaries will help decide who moves ahead.
Ben Carson is another example (and another example of a candidate who has never had any “voter” support). His supporters may be sending signals about how they want a GOP candidate who is crazy, ignorant, or deeply religious, but all opinions expressed in polls are free of any political weight.
On the other side, the absence of strong support for Republican candidates who have held elective office is interesting, since they have been rejected fairly strongly by the Republican base But again we do not yet know whether they will continue to be weak also-rans once the primaries start happening.
The other wild card here is that conservative sugar daddy money (and the hope for money down the road) is sustaining the campaigns of people who otherwise might have got the hint and dropped out. It also helps that those who are showing most strongly in the GOP polls scare the crap out of Koch and the other moneymen.
Bobby Thomson
@Elie: Trump said out loud that Emperor George was naked. If that becomes the conventional wisdom and not just something DFHs think it’s pretty much the end for all Bushes. May be a losing battle but he doesn’t think he has a choice.
mclaren
@Brachiator:
At this early point in the Republican primaries, poll numbers are a proxy for name recognition. The polls show that whenever any Repub primary candidate right now gets press, whether it’s good or bad press, his poll numbers go up.
That tells us that what’s really going on is that a huge number of outsiders are running with whom Repub primary voters are unfamiliar nationally. Trump is ahead because he has the most name recognition: he’s been the host of a reality show, so some voters know who he is. Repub primary voters have no idea who the rest of the guys are.
The polls won’t have any significance until voters have gotten acquainted enough with the Republican primary candidates to know their positions and understand what they stand for. That’s 6 months away, at least.
Applejinx
@Karen: Doesn’t matter. Russell Brand was right.
The one who wins is the one who raised the most money FROM VOTERS. http://www.bloomberg.com/politics/graphics/2015-july-super-pac/
Click on Raised By Campaign. Hillary is indeed doing very impressively, but that’s no surprise with her connections (which are also a liability). Then it’s Bernie, with NO super PAC money at all. Then would you believe Ted Cruz? Connections in Texas explain that.
If you think Super PACs are any damn good, click on that column. Near the top, Scott Walker, Rick Perry. Absolute rock bottom? Sanders, Trump, also Chafee for all the difference that’ll make.
Bernie would win. It’s all about certain types of fundraising. Hillary would win too, which is fine, but we get to choose because Bernie would also win.
Thoughtful Today
@Bobby Thomson:
Perfectly and concisely stated.
Bobby Thomson
@John Revolta: in the late 90s I talked to a Marine artillery captain from Gulf I who expressed the same view of OBL. I’m sure it was a popular view with Cheney and Rumsfeld as well.
mclaren
@Thoughtful Today:
That doesn’t make any sense.
Dubya is already despised and considered and abject failure by voters — 22% approval rating when he left office. Repubs are running away from him as fast as they can.
What matters to the Bushes is the dynasty, not any individual member. Individuals can fail, but the Bush dynasty goes on.
Brachiator
@mclaren:
Sure. And people who don’t understand how polling really works think that all polls tell you something about voter intent. This is not true.
Disagree with you on this. Committed Republicans know who many of these people are. Some of them have run for president before. And as I noted before, the mainstream Republicans have held elective office, but still cannot gain any traction in these early popularity polls.
The problem is, and this is clearly stated in poll follow-ups, the Republican base know who these guys are and feel that they have failed to do what they were elected to do.
mclaren
@Brachiator:
Okay, let’s compare the two Republican frontrunners with the two Democratic frontrunners.
Sanders has a voting record going back 40 years, and he’s been consistent, so anyone can check and see his political positions. Hillary has made statements about public policy going back 25 years, and she’s had a voting record as a New York senator, so once again, anyone can check her positions and see what’s what.
On the Republican side, there’s Ben Carson and Donald Trump. What does Ben Carson believe in? What are his policy positions? I don’t know. He doesn’t have any white papers out AFAICt. He’s just making crazy statements about bombing the caves where Mexican immigrants hide. And Trump ran for president before this election, but he held a completely different set of positions. Back then Trump was pro-abortion. Now he’s anti. Now Trump says he wants to deport illegal immigrants, back then he didn’t seem to care. Now he claims he wants to raise taxes on the rich, back then, not so much. What does Trump really believe? I have no idea. He seems to be tossing shit out at random. What actual policies does Trump have? Where are his white papers? There’s nothing.
Trump and Carson are complete blanks as far as detailed policy white papers are concerned. Sanders and Clinton have their policy position white papers up, you can read them. Trump and Carson, they’re enigmas. Nobody really knows what they stand for.
Ken
@mclaren:
November, December, … So three months after the Iowa caucuses and New Hampshire primaries, and two-and-a-half months after Super Tuesday? After about thirty state primaries in total? That may not be in time to save Jeb!.
(Did anyone ever play first edition Cosmic Encounter? The game had money, called Lucre!. Not just Lucre, but Lucre! with the exclamation point every time. “After paying one Lucre! the opponent may…” I have the same sort of haziness about punctuating sentences with Jeb! in them.)
redshirt
My god, mclaren has become the voice of reason.
Brachiator
@mclaren:
No. You compare the Republican front runners with the other Republican candidates. And the facts, as you point out, that Trump and the other front runners have no political track record is exactly why I discount these early polls. Nice stuff to talk about, but useless for any other purpose.
The Democratic polls may also be inaccurate, but it doesn’t matter as much. And we know where some of the bias lies. Consider the number of posters here who are certain that Hillary will end up the nominee, but who like Sanders and intend to vote for him. The other Democratic candidates are mere shadows, with the hint of Biden being the only significant wild card.