Thank you @pmharper it was great to see you tonight & thanks to the thousands of people who came #elxn42 #elxn2015 pic.twitter.com/tqIxs0inxD
— Rob Ford (@TorontoRobFord) October 18, 2015
Tomorrow is election day in Canada, and Stephen Harper is obviously desperate to get Conservatives to the polls in the key Greater Toronto Area. According to the Canadian version of 538, Justin Trudeau and the liberals have a solid lead but probably won’t have the votes to form a government on their own. There’s only been one coalition government in Canada’s history, and Trudeau has said repeatedly that he won’t entertain a coalition with the NDP as long as Mulcair is their leader, so things could get interesting.
Speaking of Mulcair and the NDP, who looked much stronger earlier this year, apparently Mulcair’s inability to come out strongly poor communcation of his opposition to Harper’s desire to ban the niqab (face covering) in Quebec is one small factor in the race. In contrast, Trudeau essentially called Harper a racist over the issue.
Perhaps our Canadian readers would like to weigh in on why the NDP is doing so poorly. Is it Mulcaire’s comments, the view that the Liberals are the best bet to beat Harper, or is Canada embracing Trudeau the way this woman did at a pride parade in BC earlier this year?
For those of you who don’t give a shit about Canadian politics, I hope you can at least enjoy the exercise of wondering who will end up having to tweet a picture of them kissing Donald Trump’s ass the weekend before our election next year.
redshirt
Canada, how can you elect Conservatives? I thought you were better than that.
Warren Terra
I listen to a moderate amount of Canadian news, and my impressions are:
1) Harper and his Conservatives have been inconceivably, actively destructive in office. That they might get returned, again is really scary.
2) The Liberals arguably don’t deserve to return to power, they’ve basically mired themselves neck-deep in corruption and in the Canadian version of Blue Dog-ism.
3) The polls however suggest the Liberals have a shot, and the NDP don’t.
4) Trudeau’s avowed unwillingness to work with Mulcaire is disappointing but in a way not surprising. Trudeau seems to have a real talent for disappointing.
salvage
Canadian here.
Trudeau is most likely going to get a minority government supported by the NDP if the overall polls are accurate.
If the choice is Harper as PM or the NDP and Liberals forming a coalition they will form a coalition because their respective bases will not forgive them giving us more Harper.
The only way Harper will survive is if he gets another majority and at this point that seems unlikely, his pandering to Ford’s wingnut base is a clear sign of desperation.
The advance polls did a record amount of business, people don’t get interested in an election like this unless there is a real throw the bums out feeling.
But it’s politics anything can happen and Harper is our Nixon in that dirty election tricks are standard operating procedure, if he can cheat his way back in he will.
PurpleGirl
@redshirt: There are many who have caught the ‘American Disease”, i.e., right-wing conservatism. I have a number of acquaintances in Canada, especially living in British Columbia, who seems to think American health care is better (WTF!!!). This includes one woman who married her American lover in BC and doesn’t seem to understand that if her spouse stayed in the US, her health care would be almost non-existant since she can’t work anymore.
ETA: Remember that Ford got elected in the Greater Toronto area because he campaigned for lower taxes. Unfortunately there is the same group of idiots who believe they can have government services for no money and want lower/low taxes.
schrodinger's cat
@salvage: Does Harper wear a wig, or is that his real hair?
Jane2
Desperation indeed….between the shredding trucks at various Ottawa locations and Harper appearing in Saskatchewan — Saskatchewan!! — today and not hiding out with his true blue supporters, I’d say he’s toast. And I’ll be doing my part in the voting booth tomorrow to help that along.
A guy
That pic appears to be of a guy and girl. Do they have heterosexual relationships above the boarder?
Jane2
@Warren Terra: It’ll be a minority government, so he won’t be able to do much damage.
redshirt
@A guy: That chick might be gay, but she’s pretty hot, right?
Gin & Tonic
@A guy: They do. They also have people who can spell.
Sid
@mistermix :: Your comment re: Mulcair and the niqab issue is completely incorrect, he came out extremely forcefully (much more so than Trudeau) and this very strong denunciation of the policy cost him dearly in Quebec where the majority of his poll drop came from. He did this knowing that would happen, a very principled move, so please correct the post. After the debate that this occurred in he even went out to find media to denounce it even more as he felt so strongly, costing him even more support.
A guy
Well from behynd she is hot
KWalker
@Sid: Absolutely correct! Mulcaire is the only candidate with principles, which doesn’t seem to resonate with “go along to get along” Canadians.The majority of Quebecois are sadly very racist and were happy to have another excuse to bash Muslim immigrants with the niqib (non)-issue.
JPL
@schrodinger’s cat: Only the Trump knows for sure.
Mike Adamson
The niqab issue cost the NDP in Quebec and they failed to breakthrough in Ontario (again) for reasons largely dating back to a term in government in the 90’s. I’ll also add that the NDP moved into the centre, particularly on economic issues, allowing the Liberals to outflank them a bit on the left. Polls suggest a Lib minority, it likely comes down to GOTV on Monday.
mclaren
Americans don’t give a shit about Canadian politics because Americans view Canada as a strip mall north of the U.S. border that doesn’t invade any countries, has no nuclear missile strike force able to reduce the rest of the world to rubble with the push of a button, and can’t blow up stuff with a big-ass navy armed with 18-inch guns.
Whereas Canada views itself as a really nice clean apartment, geographically speaking, on top of a festering meth lab.
schrodinger's cat
@Mike Adamson: What is the niqab issue?
Steeplejack (phone)
@schrodinger’s cat:
In the original post above:
Thor Heyerdahl
To think that Trudeau would be in Alberta (Edmonton & Calgary) on the Sunday morning before the election is amazing. Calgary hasn’t elected a Liberal candidate since his father was Prime Minister in 1968. However, in my opinion a Liberal minority government is best for Canada since the muckraking backroom deal makers cannot have free reign again for the Liberals. Hopefully, some serious electoral reform is on the way – i.e. representational proportion like New Zealand has rather than the tyranny of first-past-the-post.
Harper in Regina, Saskatchewan shows that there are some ridings (Canadian term for electoral districts) that are going to come down to GOTV. More than 70% of people want change in leadership and the difficulty for the Conservatives may be getting people to support the status quo versus people getting out to throw the bastards out. Some Conservatives (like former Newfoundland/Labrador premier Danny Williams) just might stay home and “forget” to vote.
Mulcair and the NDP tacked too much to the middle and pissed off his supporters when he did so. He also stepped back from being the “Angry Tom” that people liked and became lukewarm oatmeal. He took a hit in Quebec when he stood up against the niquab wedge issue (was an issue in Quebec in their last provincial elections – a large number of rural Quebecois are scared of the dusky immigrant.) He also was accused of not being consistent when speaking in Ontario in English and speaking French in Quebec – his platforms shifted.
The Bloc Quebecois might pick up some of the separatist vote (same segment of rural Quebecois above) at the expense of the NDP. There are interesting 3-way battles in parts of Quebec downriver from Montreal between the Conservatives, NDP and Bloc Quebecois.
The Greens, well Elizabeth May should take her riding without any difficulty. They could be a factor in other BC ridings, and maybe on the east coast (where otherwise it’s mostly a red Liberal swath). She got screwed out of debates by the traditional media in both English and French (Canada really needs an election debate commission like the US).
Other parties (like the Pirate Party, Rhinoceros Party, Marijuana Party, Christian Heritage Party and many others) will fill the ballot with other candidates in some ridings. Some ridings have independent candidates who could play spoiler.
All in all, the final outcome will depend on if people vote strategically. The fallout after the election will be interesting viewing, and certain traditional media will likely have changes after the election as well (e.g. centre-right Globe and Mail editorial supporting the Conservatives but NOT Harper; and the National Post may be getting a new Editorial Editor after it appears the right-wing paper spiked his support of Trudeau).
I voted last weekend in the advanced polls. If you’re Canadian, are eligible to vote, and haven’t voted – get your ass to the polls tomorrow!
Gin & Tonic
@schrodinger’s cat: Here you go.
Thor Heyerdahl
@A guy:
What happens on the floor above the boarder is their business. So long as they pay their rent.
Justin’s dad was famous for saying “The state has no business in the bedrooms of the nation”.
schrodinger's cat
@Gin & Tonic: Thanks! One the one hand Harper seems like the Canadian W, on the other hand I can’t get behind a tradition that requires women to cover their faces as if they were criminals.
Warren Terra
@schrodinger’s cat:
There’s two levels of the niqab issue:
1) Attempts to mandate that face coverings are not permitted when swearing to Canadian citizenship in a naturalization ceremony
2) Attempts to actually ban the niqab in government offices and in schools in Quebec, as in France.
Mostly, though, it’s an effort by the right to scare Canadians about all the ooga booga beardie weirdies coming to kill them all.
katie5
@redshirt: Bc we have 2 left-of-centre parties, who split the left vote. We have yet another further left party, the Greens. (Then there’s the Bloc, which re-emerged like a phoenix.) The conservatives consistently get ~ 30% of the vote. Not even close to a majority of the voters but a majority of the votes. I dread the results. And I’m not even sure how I’ll vote tomorrow bc it’s all ab voting tactically.
raven
Here’s the running cart I modified so Lil Bit can go on our morning walk, not bad for $12 at Habitat!
Warren Terra
@schrodinger’s cat:
Harper is much worse than W, because he is more powerful, less stupid, harder working. He doesn’t have the Pentagon, so he doesn’t get to impose his awfulness on the rest of the world so very dramatically.
Well, sure, imposing face-covering is wrong. But the question is about whether you can officially abuse women who prefer to cover their faces.
katie5
@Warren Terra: The other aspect of the niqab issue is the vile way the Bloc is exploiting it.
schrodinger's cat
@raven: Nice!
redshirt
@katie5:
So, third (and more) parties screw everything up for the majority?
PurpleGirl
@raven: Very good. There’s a lady in my complex who wheels her doggie around in a baby stroller.
Sam Knight
Mulcair lost control to Justin Trudeau when he repeated the austerity mistake. The NDP were ahead in the polls and then Mulcair pledged a balanced budget while Trudeau said the country needed to invest.
Since that set of pledges in a debate in mid september, NDP lost about 10 points which went to the Liberals. Same dumb choice that Labour did in England
katie5
@redshirt: Take the edge case: you can get 25% of the vote and still operate as a majority party (see Cameron in the UK, not the current administration but the last administration).
We have left parties that split the left vote. ~ 15 years ago the right wing parties amalgamated. The people have not become more right wing in Canada. But that strategic merger allowed the right to consistently win.
raven on the hill
Chances of the instant runoff being implemented, nil, sigh.
Let’s remember that Scott Walker got reelected and survived a recall.
raven
@PurpleGirl: When we first adopted her she had a disc problem and I did that. This will be much easier on her and me. The cracks in the sidewalk on a 2 mile walk will be much less noticeable with the big tires and a spring system.
Mike in NC
@mclaren: The only country that ever had a big-ass navy with 18 inch guns was Japan.
/pedantic retired navy guy
Mike in NC
OT: latest mass shooting (1 dead so far, 5 wounded) was at a pre-Halloween “zombie” gathering in Ft Myers, FL.
Tissue Thin Pseudonym
@redshirt: It’s first past the post, so the more parties that run a candidate in a particular riding, the fewer votes it takes to win that riding. That’s on top of the effect of having voters of one party more concentrated than those of another party, as happens with Democrats in the U.S.; I have no idea whether that effect is an issue in Canada.
katie5
Also, our current government has many US advisors. Likely why Harper inititated voter suppression rules.
JPL
@raven: Very cool.
Jack Fish
I live a few blocks from where the photo was taken, so here goes…..
First, it’s “Mulcair”, and, yes, he was very forceful in denouncing the Conservatives’ xenophobia and cynicism on the issue of Muslims in this country. He has been a thoroughly effective Leader of the Opposition, both in keeping the Cons’ feet to the fire and in keeping his relatively young caucus in line. He deserves real credit for this.
His party, the New Democratic Party, led in the polls early days, and they chose, not unwisely, to run more to the “centre”. (They have an undeserved rep for being wild-eyed lefty radicals.). It turns out this was probably a mistake, but it’s hard to see how they could have gained enough seats in Parliament to form even a minority government, given Canadian regional historical preferences and patterns.
Justin Trudeau is very bright, and far, far tougher than he looks. The Liberal Party needed an utter rebuilding following the disaster that was Michael Ignatieff, and interim leader Bob Rae, then Trudeau, did a fine job of assembling policies, people, and strategies coming into this election. They ran an excellent campaign, and, (take note, Democrats) did it by running more boldly than, and to the left of, the NDP. It looks like they’ll win about 140 seats. It takes 170 for a majority. The NDP will probably support them for a while.
There is a massive, palpable, ABC (Anyone But Conservative) sentiment across the country, and it’s not surprising that once one party broke out of what what was essentially a three-way tie people would gravitate that way. The Cons have been devotees of Republican tactics, except for the heavy God-bothering, and it is to this country’s credit that it seems they’re at their end tomorrow.
So, the NDP is probably set for its second-best federal showing, and will be disappointed. The Cons were able to win two minorities and their current majority with less than 40% of the vote, their rivals pretty much splitting the vote. Looks like that won’t happen this time. Cons are looking like getting pretty close to 27%, because we have Tea Party wannabes here, too.
redshirt
@katie5: I suspect Canada is being thoroughly infected with Right Wing Nuttery.
Any Canadian seen a rebel (US, Southern) flag in Canada?
katie5
@redshirt: Why the Confederate flag is surprisingly abundant in Canada
salvage
@schrodinger’s cat: Both. The hair is his own but as he is a Synthetic the hair is not real.
Thor Heyerdahl
@katie5: Your link is broken
Why the Confederate flag is surprisingly abundant in Canada
http://news.nationalpost.com/news/canada/why-the-confederate-flag-is-surprisingly-abundant-in-canada
debbie
@raven:
What a lucky dog!
raven
@debbie: I got so mad at her. I gave her food and turned to the stove to stir something. In one second she bolted down the long stairway to the new basement. Little shit.
debbie
@raven:
I’ve helped out a couple friends with caring for convalescing dogs — they do not know the meaning of “Take it easy!”
katie5
@katie5: Thanks!
katie5
@Thor Heyerdahl: Sorry, wrong link. Thanks for the fix.
redshirt
@katie5: Sorry we’ve messed up your country too. I love Canada and wish you all the best.
katie5
@redshirt: Sorry we’re messing up your country with the tar sands.
redshirt
@katie5: Meh. That’s nothing. We do way worse than that every day.
kped
@Warren Terra: To be fair, neither will say they will work together until after the election. But they likely will (if Muclaire stays on as leader, this is a huge loss for him so no guarantee that anyone but Trudeau stays on after this election should the Liberals win).
The thing that may have won it for Trudeau, in my mind, was his pivot to the left. Muclair dumbly ran this as a 90’s Liberal, basically trying to be Harper, but nicer. “I will only run surpluses, no matter what”. Trudeau smartly said that a small deficit isn’t a bad thing, and CAnada needed infrastructure spending, and rightly hammered Muclair by saying that if this recession stays, in order to meet the plegdge of balanced budgets, the NDP would have to cut stuff. Muclair stubbornly kept his pledge, and it’s been downhill from there. Got out flanked.
NorthLeft12
Another Canadian chiming in. There is a strong ABC [Anything But Conservative] feeling in Canada, which was mostly to the NDP’s benefit as they were the second place party going into the election, with the Trudeau Liberals a distant third.
Trudeau came into the election with little going for him besides his Father’s legacy [a plus in central and eastern Canada, but a negative out west]. Do I have to explain who Pierre Elliot Trudeau is?
But through the campaign and especially the numerous debates, Trudeau established among most Canadians that he does have the ability to lead this country, and the Liberal platform has seemed more reasonable than either the Cons and the NDP’s. The Liberals are polling around 36%, the highest among all three parties, which would convert to the most seats [say 140 out of 338 in Parliament] with the Cons and NDP not far behind.
The Cons have gone full negative, focusing on Trudeau and mocking his youth and inexperience. The NDP have also piled on, which has cost them a lot of good will and voter support. It seems like there is a strong feeling that the Liberals are the best bet to displace the Cons, and if that continues to grow, we could see a dramatic shift to the Liberals throughout the country. A majority is very unlikely, but not completely impossible.
Monday night will be very interesting and exciting. Thankfully I have the week off so will be staying up late to follow the results to the bitter/sweet end.
kped
@NorthLeft12: I’d argue that the Conservatives went negative against Trudeau before the election was even called. Those “he’s just not experienced enough” ads started in the Spring! It was like Harper didn’t even care if the NDP won, he just wanted to destroy the Liberal party. And I think it ended up backfiring, the ads played so much that people stopped paying attention.
ckc (not kc)
@schrodinger’s cat:
It’s his own, but now he has to pay for it himself…http://www.ctvnews.ca/stephen-harper-s-stylist-no-longer-on-public-payroll-1.513467
Svensker
@Thor Heyerdahl:
Yes. The quiet, low-key Mulcair is just not very interesting. That and the niqab racism crap. Boy, tomorrow is going to be interesting. Fingers and everything else crossed.
pseudonymous in nc
A fundamental point here is that the Liberals are still the “natural party of government” in Canada, and while the NDP has governed provinces and led the way on Medicare, it has always been an outsider party, while Harper’s CPC is equal parts western Reformist pure believers and Rob Ford-style suburban ressentiment.
Harper has tried his best to change this, but Rae and now Trudeau have done enough to rehabilitate the Grits. The extra-long campaign probably backfired on Harper, because it’s allowed Trudeau to define himself instead of being defined by his rivals (or his late father).
Nikolita
Canadian here, from BC. I see Liberals are in the lead and that makes me a little sad (NDP is my top pick). If I can get to the polls I’ll be voting NDP, although I don’t think they’ll have a shot at a minority based on some of the other comments I’ve been reading here, and because of Mulcair’s stance on the niqab-issue-that-shouldn’t-have-been-an-issue.
I just don’t want to see Harper back in power, even as part of a minority. #AnyoneButHarper
NorthLeft12
@kped: Yes, the HarperCons started to smear Trudeau as soon as he won the leadership of the Liberals and continued on from the start of the campaign. But I have noticed a significant increase in the frequency and vehemence of the attacks once the Liberals started to surge and lead the polls.
Subtlety is not the Cons strong suit.
SiubhanDuinne
@Nikolita:
On the Book of Faces a while ago I put out a general batcall to my Canadian friends (who probably constitute close to half of my FB friends) asking for their predictions — not what they hope or wish, but what they think will happen. Nobody is predicting a Conservative government, but it’s all over the map as to whether it might be Lib or NDP majority or minority. What I did read — and this from someone who still works for the Canadian Foreign Service, so it’s fairly ballsy even to say it out loud — is that “Harper might well be the most loathed PM in our history.” Also, suggestions from others that the Guardian‘s coverage is superior to Canadian media.
WaterGirl
@raven: What a lucky girl!
WaterGirl
@raven: Little shit.
I thought her name was Little Bit not little shit. :-)
SiubhanDuinne
@SiubhanDuinne:
BTW, there’s at least one poll that says 72% of Canadians want Harper gone. That leaves, hmmmm, 28% who would be happy to have him stay on. And when you consider that Canadians use the metric system, so, you know, the numbers aren’t going to be exact, well, just pointin’ it out….
ckc (not kc)
@SiubhanDuinne:
“Harper might well be the most loathed PM in our history.”
…ah, poor Brian Mulroney – how soon they forget!
kped
@NorthLeft12: Well, i’ve noticed that from the Conservatives and NDP as well. Honestly, one of the things that soured me on Muclair. That he joined in with the Prime Minister to only refer to Trudeau as “Justin”, which is just a disrespectful thing to do to someone leading one of the major parties. I mean, is it that hard to say “Mr. Trudeau”? Muclair along with Harper has tried to infantalize him, and it’s quite pathetic.
Ferdzy
I have voted NDP or Green all my life. I am going to vote Liberal for the first time ever tomorrow. I hate the bastards (Liberals) but I hate the Conservatives 10,000 times more. And I find I am not too happy with the NDP. They have sold out on a lot of fronts. The Greens would just be a throw-away vote at this point.
My riding is solidly conservative – last time it was 50% Conservative, 25% Liberal, 13% NDP, 8% Green – something like that, anyway. Since the Liberals seem to be the only ones conceivably possible to oust the Conservatives here, that’s how I’ll vote. ABC – Anyone But Conservatives.
Peter
I don’t know how the election is going down, although I’m confident it won’t be another Conservative government and thank fucking God.
If it’s Trudeau, well, he wouldn’t be my first choice (his handling of the bill C-51 issue, which was an unmitigated fiasco, really soured me on him) but fucking hell I’ll take him. Anyone but fucking Steven Harper again.
Harper’s had the good luck to be the Conservative leader at a time when the party’s main rival were in a state of complete implosion, and a third party was ascendant but not dominantly so.
Ever since Jean Chretien left, the Liberals had been getting weaker and weaker. Paul Martin was a passable leader, but corruption scandals which had been brewing for fifteen years toppled his government and led to the first Conservative minority government. Stephane Dione fell backwards into the role and had no presence whatsoever, and Michael Ignatieff was disastrous. So the Liberals were slowly degrading into an also-ran party, but had enough institutional hold that the decline was gradual and painful.
Meanwhile, the NDP, a more leftist party which had always been a marginal player at best in parliament, were working their buns off under Jack Layton. Layton may have been the leader of a small party, but he was a terrific campaigner and a really beloved figure in Canadian politics, respected by people on every side of the political axis. The dude had serious charisma. Unfortunately, his outsider party had never managed to get much traction.
That changed last election when the collapsing Liberals sent many voters the NDP’s way, especially in Quebec, where the NDP had expected NOTHING and so a bunch of their new MPs were paper candidates, who nobody had expected to win; some of them didn’t even speak French, while representing French-speaking Quebec.
This dynamic basically switched the Liberals and the NDP’s positions. Suddenly, the NDP were the official opposition; and the Liberals the rump party. Unfortunately, this wound up splitting the vote and getting Harper the majority government he’d always wanted. Worse, Jack Layton died of can we a few months after the election, and while his replacement Tom Mulcair has been fine, he’s no Jack Layton.
NorthLeft12
@Peter: Yes, this election would be a lot different if Jack layton was still alive. I’m thinking NDP majority.
What could have been with Jack.
Just one more Canuck
I’m in a liberal area but with recent reapportionment we were moved into a riding represented by a conservative, the odious Paul Calandra, who many Canadians know as one of harper’s attack dogs. At the beginning of the campaign I was wiling to vote for whoever had the best chance of beating Calandra but decided on the Liberals. They have run a really strong campaign and their ground game seems really strong – I have received multiple phone calls and emails reminding me to vote and asking for my support (not taking it for granted)
I would like to see a liberal majority but I think it will be a minority
Peter
@NorthLeft12: It makes me incredibly sad that we’ll never hear the words “Prime Minister Jack Layton” as anything but a fantasy. I do t know if I can say for certain that Laytkn would win a majority in this election, but I think it would have been his to lose.
I hope Harper lives a long time. Long enough to see his administration become a complete joke in the national consciousness, like Nixon or Brian Mulroney.
kped
@Peter: I don’t think Layton would have sold out the left of the NDP like Muclaire did.
Just one more Canuck
One of the more reputable polling companies (nanos) up here just released their last poll before the election with the Liberals at 39% (8 point lead overs the conservatives) which is right around where they could be looking at a majority
Nikolita
@SiubhanDuinne: As a younger Canadian I can’t speak on the reigns of previous Prime Ministers, but I wouldn’t be surprised if Harper were that hated. Serves him right after what he’s done to Canada.
Steve Finlay
@Ferdzy: Well said. I’m traditionally a Liberal, but this election I voted NDP in the advance poll, because in my riding the NDP candidate has a far better chance of beating the Con.
It is hard to describe to people outside Canada just how awful Harper is. He despises civil liberties, the rule of law, justice and democracy. Some of his actual POLICIES make quite a lot of sense, even. But it is the way he does politics that has no place in a civilized world.
Actually, our friends who read Balloon Juice probably do understand how awful he is. He’s exactly like a Republican — except for the fact that Republicans have no policies.
katie5
@Peter: I live in a Bloc riding that swung to NDP. I’ll probably vote NDP again because I can’t get past Trudeau supporting Bill C-51.
katie5
@Steve Finlay: It’s hard to explain to Americans because we live in a maternal, not a paternal government. We (at least Anglophones) have long trusted the government. There’s good reason for that–a center left government with a significant safety net and socially progressive agenda (e.g., abortion, gay rights). What Harper has done has broken the social compact between government and its citizens. The big problem with that is we have no organized infrastructure of dissent (okay, except QC and even that’s not as sustained as you might think). No plethora of volunteer groups, agitators. Much less of a DIY attitude than the US. So when a social compact is broken there is no easy way to gen up resistance. Harper knows that. And that’s why he’ll go down as the worst in history.
BBA
I expect Harper to squeeze out another term, just because things always seem to break conservative.
jonas
@PurpleGirl:
The logic goes something like this: if we simply threw all the undeserving [fill in blank with immigrants, lazy black people, slutty women, etc..] off the dole, then we wouldn’t need such high taxes to provide excellent services for the rest of us [white, deserving] folks.
jonas
@katie5: There’s an interesting corollary here I heard presented one time by a pair of sociologists who work on Sweden: contrary to what many Americans believe, the Scandinavian welfare state is actually built upon a particular ideal of radical individualism in the sense that each citizen should be completely free of obligations to directly support someone else, or be supported by another. The state steps in and does this, thus freeing individuals to pursue their interests, goals and aspirations free of considerations about what they may “owe” someone for a particular decision in the end — whether it’s parents, universities, doctors, etc. This forges a great deal of autonomy and egalitarianism among citizens, but also leaves individuals exposed to the whim of the state with few civic institutions (e.g. grass roots organizations) to mediate that relationship if it becomes hostile. By contrast, the American system leaves citizens vulnerable to inequities within society at large (i.e. dependent on family, friends, churches, etc., to get by in many cases), but also provides a lot of activism and mediation between the citizen and the state in the form of unions, associations, and other groups to advocate for various causes.
Those are fairly crude, broad brushstrokes, to be sure, but what you say about Canada not having a culture of political agitation, volunteerism, etc., seems to suggest a similar dynamic at work.
katie5
@jonas: That’s a fascinating theory, that I’ll need to chew on. Seems to me that radical individualism also would lead to a lot of entrepreneurialism. We don’t see that nearly as much in Canada, as opposed to the US. Or we see the same amount of entrepreneurialism from Canadians but only after they move to the US.
Nikolita
@katie5: I also heard he supported the Pipeline but lied about it. Something related to the Pipeline and he claimed he didn’t know, or support it or whatever, and he actually did.
I’ll live with a Liberal win, but would pick NDP as my top choice. Green as a third place pick. Literally anything but Conservative.
redshirt
@katie5:
It’s easier to blow someone else’s money here in the USA. So a good place for new business.
But give me the Scandinavian model any day.
polyorchnid octopunch
@kped: Learn to spell his name. The only conclusion I can draw is that nobody should take you as an unbiased voice.
Montarvillois
@KWalker: Your generalization that Quebecois are “very racist” is absurd.
Montarvillois
On behalf of the flora and fauna, I’ll be voting Green Party today.
kped
@polyorchnid octopunch: I’m not sure that I care if you find me biased or unbiased. Still not voting NDP, and Muclair is mainly the reason. I don’t think it’s biased of me to say that his pledge for balanced budgets NO MATTER WHAT is a huge shift to the right on his part, and would lead to cuts to something, either his promises, or the social safety net, if the current downturn persists (and with Iran being able to sell oil on the market, it’s likely that our large Petroleum sector will continue to be a drag on the economy).
Ecks
@Montarvillois: My BIL grew up in rural Quebec. He is entirely behind the characterization of Quebec as xenophobic, inward looking, and racist. Ironically its more progressive in other ways, but not so much in terms of rabid ethnocentirsm.
NorthLeft12
@Montarvillois: Agree. There are a lot of urban progressives who are very uncomfortable with the niquab, and cannot believe that a woman would actually choose to wear it. They believe that she must be being forced to wear it by some man [husband, father].
As far as racism goes, my generalization is that most people who do not meet or have any human contact with other races besides their own, are very susceptible to being prejudiced against the “others” due to ignorance.
Adam C
What I perceive is that a solid majority of Canadians want Harper out, and we’re learning that under our terrible electoral system that it’s actually really hard to do. I’m hopeful that all of this frustration leads to a less archaic system being adopted.
My belief is that the niqab issue really did change the course of this election, although not in the way that Harper’s misanthropes intended. Over the summer, the NDP had astonishingly high levels of support in Quebec, which propped them up elsewhere among ABC voters. They were on pace form a majority government. Harper’s aggression against women wearing veils, and the NDP’s principled response, revitalized both the Conservative and xenophobic Bloc Quebecois vote in Quebec (where religious tolerance has been a hot-button provincial issue for the last couple of years).
Once the NDP fortunes started to lag, however, the ABC voters switched to Liberal – driving the NDP down even further, but overcoming a brief Conservative lead. This Liberal surge occurred even in Quebec (ironically, since Trudeau took a strong stand against state dress codes as well). Mulcair’s Blairite platform put him particularly at risk, as it further narrowed the difference between him and the centrist Liberals making it easy to switch loyalties.
Vicki
I’m Canadian and I’ve just voted Liberal. I am an ABC voter (anyone but Conservatives) and I was supportive of the NDP early, but Trudeau simply did so well on the campaign trail that he started leaving the NDP in the dust. In my riding, the Liberals are the only choice to defeat the Conservatives. I am doing GOTV today and will be scrutineering the vote count tonight.
Wrye
Harper and the BQ’ anti-niqab race-baiting , while it cost the NDP in Quebec, seemed to be a real galvanizing moment for ABC elsewhere in the country- people view Harper as an existential threat to modern (post 1967) multicultural Canada.
Again, its hard to convey just how much damage he’s done, just how reviled he is.
Anyone with a possible claim to citizenship elsewhere can now be stripped of their Canadian citizenship if convicted of terrorism – and this is a government that describes environmental groups as terroristic.
The damage he’s done is subtle, methodical, and far reaching. It’ll be years before we even wrap our heads around how much.
katie5
Don’t know if anyone’s still on this thread. But I just voted. Cross our fingers. I’m in Gilles Duceppe’s riding so the vote’s going to be split many ways.
After I voted, had a 1/2 hour argument w Elections Canada rep about the need for more identification in order to vote. He was surprisingly conservation for a guy in progressive QC.
kped
@katie5: I voted, and mine might actually count. I’m in the competitive Olivia Chow/Adam Vaughn riding. Voted Vaughn.
canuckistani
Voted NDP in Toronto University Rosedale.
Could have voted Liberal if it hadn’t been for C-51.
Interrobang
I’m solidly on Team Liberal this time. I’m not happy about the C-51 thing, and I’m not happy about the Liberals’ support for Big Oil, but they’re offering more stuff I actually do want (restoration of door-to-door mail delivery, restoration of the long-form census, investment in infrastructure, transit, and jobs, independent and restored StatsCan, ending income splitting, raising taxes on the wealthy, renewed commitment to peacekeeping, rather than “counterinsurgency,” legalization of marijuana — what a tax boon that’ll be!) than stuff I don’t want. I can’t get on board with Mulcair’s economic platform; it’s almost as right-wing as Harper’s. Fuck that. We’re in a recession right now; we need government spending, not “no deficits, no new taxes, ever” stuff.
That and the NDP candidate has zero chance in my riding. Also, I want our useless, helmet-haired (what is it with CRAPs and bad hair?!) Tory MP out (and the Tory guy in the next riding over who keeps spamming my house with his propaganda flyers, too, but I can’t vote against him because I still don’t live in his riding, argh). Justin Trudeau, I think would make a great PM.
I basically think the Liberals are polling better than the NDP right now because the NDP voter is traditionally more left than the Liberal voter, and the Trudeau II Liberals have outflanked the NDP to the left in several key areas, including the economy. (It’s nearly always the economy, stupid!) Also, Justin Trudeau is kind of fun and definitely easy on the eyes, and Mulcair seems to have all the charisma of a used scrubbie.
I haven’t voted yet, but I’m just on my way out the door. Wish us luck here in London North-Centre!
katie5
Woohoo! Anyone but Harper and then Trudeau gets a majority!