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You are here: Home / Elections / Election 2016 / Joe Biden and the Cold Equations

Joe Biden and the Cold Equations

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This will no doubt get me labelled a Hilbot Harpy, but the details are still interesting. Per the NYTimes:

…After skipping the first Democratic debate last week, Mr. Biden called a handful of operatives he hoped would work on a campaign and left them with the impression he was ready to run. With his advisers, Greg Schultz, Mike Donilon and Michael Schrum, listening on a speaker phone, Mr. Biden told the operatives that he had “the strongest chance to continue the work Barack has done,” according to Democrats who discussed the private calls on condition of anonymity. He added that he believed Mrs. Clinton could lose to the Republicans.

But when he asked their advice on how to raise the estimated $30 million he would need for the early states and $40 million he would need to reach the Super Tuesday contests, they told him it could not be done in the time available.

Mr. Biden’s advisers concluded he could raise the money but not without sacrificing necessary days on the ground in the early states campaigning. After subtracting the time needed for an estimated 40 fund-raisers, the holiday period when little campaigning is done and time for debate preparations, that would leave Mr. Biden with perhaps 40 to 45 days to devote to retail stumping before the Iowa caucuses in February…

Politico‘s Glenn Thrush: “In the words of a longtime ally, it became increasingly clear that the planning was ‘more fantasy football than football.’”

There was so, so much going for a Joe Biden presidential campaign — wasn’t there? His shaggy-dog “authenticity,” the tantalizing possibility of a Hillary Clinton face plant, the endless egging-on by a D.C. press corps that coveted a Joe-vs.-Hillary fight over a dreary, substance-y battle between Clinton and a Larry David doppelgänger.

The solitary item in the “no” column: reality.

Joe Biden was a bad presidential candidate in 1988 and 2008, and he didn’t seem to be brandishing many new skills (especially discipline or a measured tongue) in his more than four decades of public life.

At 72, with his 46-year-old son, Beau (whom he viewed as the most likely president in the Biden family), buried less than six months ago, the vice president’s restless mind alighted on an unexpected path to a political future — until his gaze returned to reality and legacy. In the end, he opted to stop where he stood — as an uncommonly powerful and collaborative vice president…

Renowned number-cruncher Nate Cohn, in the NYTimes, says “Joe Biden Ran in the Invisible Primary, and Lost to Hillary Clinton”:

… Mr. Biden’s decision was informed by personal considerations, as he said Wednesday in bowing out, not just the cold calculus of building a national campaign. But the reality was that he would have struggled for the same reason that other traditional, establishment-friendly candidates decided not to run. The support from party operatives, donors and officials wasn’t quite there. The party had already decided, for Mrs. Clinton.

That’s why there was no grand movement to “draft” Mr. Biden into the race, even after the F.B.I. began its investigation of Mrs. Clinton’s emails, and even after Mr. Biden began to reconsider a presidential run. My colleagues Carl Hulse and Jason Horowitz reported that many of Mr. Biden’s likeliest allies were discouraging him. So were prominent public figures from Team Obama, like David Axelrod. There were few or no defections from Mrs. Clinton’s camp.

What has happened over the last few months is exactly what one would anticipate in a “Party Decides” framework. As my colleague Brendan Nyhan wrote in August, Mr. Biden was already running for president in the invisible primary. Like most candidates who test the waters, he didn’t find enough support to justify entering the race...

The Boston Globe has some quibbles:

… Considering how popular Hillary Clinton is within the Democratic Party, and considering that a Biden run would have likely been a lost cause, the rationale for his candidacy has always been difficult to decipher. There are precious few policy differences between Biden and Clinton. At least Bernie Sanders can say he’s running on an agenda of dealing with income inequality more forcefully than Clinton. What issue would have defined Biden’s candidacy in contrast to Clinton?…

To make matters worse, Biden’s remarks Wednesday, which sounded like an announcement speech changed at the last minute to an “I’m not running speech,” largely focused on his policy priorities. He offered few words of support for Clinton and, amazingly, even took a veiled shot at her, arguing that contrary to the joking reference Clinton made at the Democratic debate, Republicans are not the “enemy.” A lot of Democrats would disagree with the vice president about that. But whatever one’s views, Biden’s comments are decidedly unhelpful. So as a Democratic vice president who should, at least theoretically, clearly want a Democrat to win in 2016, why say it? Why use his speech to undercut the likely nominee of his party?…

Reader Interactions

105Comments

  2. 2.

    Baud

    The DNC next year will be headlined with speeches from Obama, Biden, Bill, Hillary, Sanders, and Warren, plus everyone else. It’s going to be a barn burner.

  3. 3.

    Betty Cracker

    I like Joe Biden a lot, but I’m glad he decided not to run. We’ve already got a slightly left of center, bog-standard Democratic candidate who is 1) an Obama admin veteran 2) who carries baggage from previous legislative experience and 3) who has vowed to protect and build on the Obama legacy.

    What would have been the difference between Biden’s and Clinton’s platforms? The race would have devolved into an ugly personalities battle precisely because the differences on the substance are practically nonexistent.

  4. 4.

    trollhattan

    @Baud:

    The DNC next year will be headlined with speeches from Obama, Biden, Bill, Hillary, Sanders, andBaud!, Warren, plus everyone else. It’s going to be a barn burner.

    Something seemed missing. How y’all accepting unless also, too, burning the barn?

  5. 5.

    Baud

    Re: Biden. It’s odd to take so long to make a decision and then say that your reason for not running is lack of time. I still think his real reason is that he just doesn’t have the emotional energy (understandably) for the heavy lift of both running and winning.

  7. 7.

    srv

    I’m sure by 2017 that Joe and Jeb will have it all figured out.

    Dems will have wished he’d run as Crazy Guy Sanders will have run his course by this time next year. Clinton won’t be in jail, but Obama’s pardon isn’t going to pass the electorates smell test.

  8. 8.

    beltane

    @Baud: It’s good the Democratic convention will be a barn-burner because the Republican convention is likely to be a cross-burner.

  9. 9.

    jl

    This is the kind of stuff interesting to people who read 4000 page multi-volume biographies written by obsessives, right.

  11. 11.

    Brandon

    So if this story is to be believed, Biden wastes 6 months thinking about running and then decides not to because there wouldn’t be enough time to campaign and raise money? Either Joe Biden is completely incompetent or more likely he was only going to run if there was a realistic prospect that Hillary’s emails would drown her candidacy. Thanks to Rep. McCarthy for the assist, that prospect disappeared and thus Biden calls it quits right on the eve of Hillary’s committee testimony.

  13. 13.

    jl

    @Baud: in fairness, tI think he said that the recent death of his son meant that it would be long time before he could make a decision, and for his family to make a decision. So, not quite as you portray it.

    Edit: But, is there a vindictive streak in Baud, questioning an opponent after he drops out the race? OK, then character issues for Baud to answer to my satisfaction. Gosh, I sincerely hope my concerns can be put to rest, since otherwise I will natter about it constantly. Hope Drudge doesn’t pick up the story.

    Edit2: And Baud has to face that fact that character issues are ‘out there now’. Sad day for Baud’s campaign.

  14. 14.

    NorthLeft12

    @beltane: Don’t you remember? “Your world is on fire!”

    Why would Cruz and the rest of the mob of buffoons stop with a cross or two?

  17. 17.

    NotMax

    Bwa-freakin’-ha. Further confirmation of that pesky debbil, reality (emphasis added).

    A month of extensive New Hampshire advertising on Jeb Bush’s behalf has failed to boost his support and likely Republican primary voters there view him as inferior to frontrunner Donald Trump on most key attributes.
    [snip]
    “With such a heavy spend, the Bush campaign was undoubtedly hoping for a bounce,” said Doug Usher of Washington-based Purple Strategies, which conducted the poll Oct. 15-18. “But their candidate is closer to Rubio, Fiorina and Kasich than to the top tier, and his favorables are moving in the wrong direction.” Source

  18. 18.

    some guy

    @NotMax:

    the more he spends on ads, the more people see him on their TVs, the lower his favorabilty numbers go.

    People just don’t like jeb!

  22. 22.

    Corner Stone

    @NotMax: Hey, NotMax. I have an OT island question for you, if you care to respond. May go to Kauai this March with some Oahu. Good time for a visit, overall?

  23. 23.

    Corner Stone

    I ask the blogtariat – is there a single male R congressperson who should not be punched squarely in the face at this hearing?

  25. 25.

    Felonius Monk

    @Baud: I’m curious. Are you going to be a perennial candidate like Pat Paulsen or will this be a one shot deal? — on the very slight chance that you might not come away with nomination.

  26. 26.

    rk

    @srv:

    Dems will have wished he’d run as Crazy Guy Sanders will have run his course by this time next year. Clinton won’t be in jail, but Obama’s pardon isn’t going to pass the electorates smell test.

    How very republican of you. Fact free wishful thinking.

  28. 28.

    Villago Delenda Est

    @NotMax: Not all the Brinks Trucks on the planet can help that situation. Throwing money at the problem has only worsened the favorables.

  29. 29.

    NotMax

    @Corner Stone

    Very tail end of whale watching season (Nov. – Mar.). May be a a tad more rainy than at other times, but not in the sense of a dealbreaker.

    Prices probably more amenable, as it is more or less off-season.

  32. 32.

    Mnemosyne (iPhone)

    Honestly, I really don’t care whether Joe deliberately punked everyone or just Hamleted around town.

    It would be nice if the pundits could have been this self-reflective when it came to stuff like figuring out how they got fooled about Iraq or into thinking the Tea Party was some kind of independent grassroots movement, but that’s me dreaming the impossible dream again.

  35. 35.

    FlyingToaster

    @Corner Stone:

    I ask the blogtariat – is there a single male R congressperson who should not be punched squarely in the face at this hearing?

    FTFY.

  36. 36.

    A guy

    Joe was never running. The Clifton’s have got to him and to Bernie. Her nomination is a foregone conclusion.

  37. 37.

    Roger Moore

    @Corner Stone:

    I ask the blogtariat – is there a single male R congressperson who should not be punched squarely in the face at this hearing?

    Yes, all of them. You should never punch anyone square in the face unless you’re wearing some kind of protection for your hands, since you’re apt to break your knuckles that way. A cross, hook, or uppercut is a much better choice.

  40. 40.

    Mnemosyne (iPhone)

    I have a burning question: why is it that virtually all of Wodehouse’s Blandings Castle novels are available on Kindle, but virtually none of his Jeeves or Mulliner novels or short stories except the ones that are in the public domain? I blame the BBC.

  41. 41.

    Corner Stone

    @Roger Moore:

    A cross, hook, or uppercut is a much better choice.

    Actually, you should never want your bare hand to make contact with any part of the skull. You want hard on soft contact, so the knee, shin or smashing portion of the elbow (not the tip unless you’re trying to break the skin) should be used. If you do strike at the face the cartilage in the nose is an acceptable target as it causes immediate blurred vision, disorientation, reduction in breathing and swelling in both eyes.
    Or so I have been told. But this was all an exercise in rhetorical questioning as I am a non-violent individual.

  42. 42.

    trollhattan

    @Roger Moore:
    My hiking buddy [barely, now] thought it would be a hoot to bring Spam for one of our meals (weeklong backpack). That shit is SALTY and as such has no notable flavor beyond SALT.

  43. 43.

    Tommy

    I got no clue why, but my father had a relationship with Joe. He called him all the time asking for shit. Totally out of protocol. Now there is a part of me that likes Biden picks up the phone and makes a call. But what he wanted, my father to tell him he’d find a plane for him, well wasn’t something he could do. But he kept calling. Turned into an asshole. Maybe the only time in my life I know of a politician and don’t really like the dude because of personal interaction. Dude was a dick, no chance I’d vote for him.

  44. 44.

    Corner Stone

    Congresswoman Brooks is an idiot. How is her staff allowing her to continue asking questions?

  46. 46.

    Corner Stone

    @Roger Moore: That’s interesting because I was quite forcefully told on this very blog that Obama could not, let me say that again, could not veto an NDAA.

  48. 48.

    Bobby Thomson

    @A guy:

    Joe was never running. The Clifton’s have got to him and to Bernie.

    I always thought Hokas were supposed to create less risk of injury.

  51. 51.

    dedc79

    @Corner Stone: You can sub in the names of any of the other Republicans from this hearing and the sentence would still be true.

    They’ve got nothing on her. And even if they had, I doubt they’d have the skills to make anything out of it regardless.

  52. 52.

    El Caganer

    I guess Biden just said ‘fuck it,’ after all. My first assumption was that he had pissed off the President by appearing to come up the day before yesterday with a new account of the decision to hit Bin Laden (I don’t think it really was a new account, but our beloved MSM seemed to think so); and that the President suggested he wouldn’t support him. That turns out to have been a helluva lot of assumptionamalizeraling on my part. But, of course, it would be irresponsible not to blah, blah, blah………

  53. 53.

    Patricia Kayden

    @A guy: Secretary Clinton’s Presidency is a foregone conclusion. None of your Clown Car Occupants can beat her. That’s the whole point of this whole Benghazi witch hunt.

  54. 54.

    Mary G

    @Corner Stone: I have been longing for the president to break out the veto pen since the Repubs took over so much of Congress in 2010. Unfortunately, they haven’t been able to produce much legislation due to fighting amongst themselves. Finally, a big fat NO. Yay.

    The wingnut butthurt frenzy will be epic. I have a little bet with myself for the first Congress member who says it’s illegal for him to do that, much too uppity.

  55. 55.

    Patricia Kayden

    @Corner Stone: President Obama can do anything he wants to now that he’s supposedly a lame duck. I’m sure he’s gearing up for a fight over the debt ceiling in December and this is just the precursor to how he’ll handle that.

  56. 56.

    mclaren

    @Betty Cracker:

    I like Joe Biden a lot…

    So you liked the Iraq War?

    Because Joe Biden was an eager supporter of the Iraq War from 2003 until 2006.

    Joe Biden on the Don Imus show, 8/17/2006:
    “We’ve got one last shot here to separate these parties [in the Iraq civil war], and you have to do it politically.”

    Joe Biden, Fox News, 11/21/2005: (Should we leave Iraq right now?)
    “Not immediately, no. I can understand Jack’s frustration. This is a guy who has concluded that so far we’ve handled this effort incompetently, but it seems to me that we have one last shot at
    getting this right.”

    Joe Biden, Charlie Rose show, 21 June 2005:
    “I personally think we should not set an exit date. I personally think we should take one last shot at trying to do this the right way. I think it still can be done, although more difficult.”

    Joe Biden, Face the Nation, 6/19/2004:
    “We need time. There’s one last shot at getting this right in Iraq.”

    Joe Biden, Hardball, 24 May 2004:
    “We’ve made significant mistakes. Our one last shot to get this right, unite the world, convince the Iraqi people that this is not just a U.S. occupation, is June 30.”

    Joe Biden, 11/7/2003:
    “I am convinced we have one last shot at bringing the world into Iraq,” said Sen. Joseph R. Biden Jr. of Delaware, the senior Democrat on the Foreign Relations Committee. “We must do everything in our power to seize it.”

    You like the failed and futile War on Drugs?

    Because Joe Biden personally handcrafted almost all the evil legislation that has made the War on Drugs such a nightmare, like asset forfeiture, crack cocaine mandatory 20-year sentencing, zero tolerance laws, no-knowck warrants.

    You like the US Patriot Act?

    Because Joe Biden’s 1995 Omnibus Antiterrorism law (voted down because it was far too extreme an unconstitutional) got dusted off and made into the USA Patriot Act after 9/11.

    You like America’s prison having more inmates than any other nation in the world?

    Because one person is to blame for that — Joe Biden.

    You like Washington D.C. insider crony corruption and nepotism?

    Because Joe Biden is the master of insider D.C. crony corruption and nepotism.

    Whether it’s Senator Harry Reid and son Rory’s involvement in lucrative land deals and the BLM’s federal racketeering behaviour in Nevada, or Senator Diane Feinstein and husband Richard Blum’s inside track contract award to sell 56 buildings located on prime commercial real estate that currently house U.S. Post Offices, or Dick Cheney and family’s shareholdings in Haliburton and fortunes reaped during his tenure as Vice President and thereafter – the men and women of Washington DC see absolutely no problem with filling their family pockets and trust funds on US tax payer time.

    In exactly the same vein, Obama’s Vice President Joe Biden, who has been pushing hard to demonise and disrupt Russia and Gazprom’s relationship with Kiev, while supporting the heavily NeoFascist coup de tat in Kiev, Ukraine – just happens to have a son who just happens to be working as the ‘head of legal affairs’ at Burisma, Ukraine’s largest private gas producer. The conflict of interest – or the outright collusion involved here is fairly blatant.

    Source: Crony Collusion: VP Joe Biden’s Son Joins Board of Ukrainian Gas Company.

  59. 59.

    Incitatus for Senate

    His decision seemed to always depend on whether Hillary stepped on her dick, so to speak. A part of him was probably hoping that she would, and good old Uncle Joe could sweep in to the rescue and save the presidency from those dimwit Republicans. One last heroic gesture to cap his career.

    But Hillary has failed to cooperate, and I think he will support her, once he’s had a chance to cool off a little.

  64. 64.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @A guy: Joe was never running. The Clifton’s have got to him

    What’s a have? and how did The Clifton use his/hers/its on Biden?

  67. 67.

    mclaren

    @Corner Stone:

    That’s interesting because I was quite forcefully told on this very blog that Obama could not, let me say that again, could not veto an NDAA.

    We’ve all been told repeatedly by the Republican Lite DINOs and neocon-enablers on this blog how powerless the president is, how impotent the executive powers of the president are, how Obama has no choice but to grovel and crawl and submit.

    Meanwhile, when Obama started actually using the powers of the presidency (viz., making maternity leave mandatory for female federal employees by executive order, by ordering the IRS to avoid implementing the Obamacare tax provisions for a year, by shutting down the Republican debt ceiling threats last year), these neocon DINOs suddenly made an about-face and lectured us on how the president can do anything he wants because the Imperial Presidency is so plenipotent and the executive branch of the U.S. government is so awesomely and overarchingly powerful.

    Fact is, the enablers and DINOs and Obots are lying. President Obama has vast powers — he simply chooses not to use them.

    Obama could have appointed all the people blocked by congress by using recess appointments. He refused to do it. Obama could have shut Gitmo by executive order. He refused to do it. Obama could have transformed any agency and changed any policy he liked with signing statements and sequestering of funds. He refused to do it. Obama could have ordered the DOJ to prosecute and jail every Wall Street crime lord involved in the criminal frauds of the 2008 global financial meltdown. He refused to do it.

    Obama can shut down the House Republican threat not to extend the debt ceiling merely by signing an executive over raising the debt ceiling on his authority as president. It’s trivial. It’s simple. It’s a non-issue. The presidency has vast powers…provided Obama chooses to use them.

  68. 68.

    Jay C

    The solitary item in the “no” column: reality.

    And since fncking when has this been an issue for our political media? When they have a Narrative to push? Jeez Louise, I’d bet we will – still – be hearing solemn punditizing about Joe Biden’s run/not run right up to the DNC next summer: and probably beyond: all they have to do is change the theme of the BS from “Should he have run”? to “What if he had run”? or “Why didn’t he run?” probably without missing a beat. After all, they otherwise have to deal with the issue of Republican FAIL head-on, and that, in the Media Village, Just Isn’t Done….

  69. 69.

    rikyrah

    As was pointed out earlier, the only “scandal” of the Obama Administration has come from a Clinton. Ode to joy….what a taste of things to come ….unforced errors caused by arrogance, and then expecting people to defend their bullshyt.

  73. 73.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    I’m a long-standing Donna Edwards fan, but after that speech I think I may move to Maryland to write in Elijah Cummings for Senate.

    ETA: if anyone else is still watching this slow-motion train-wreck, and I can’t believe I am, does anyone recognize the tall guy over HRC’s left shoulder.

    HRC just smacked Gowdy with a rhetorical 2×4 (A tragedy like Benghazi should never be used for partisan purposes). To paraphrase Homer Simspon, he’s sweating like Chris Christie on a hot day.

  78. 78.

    GxB

    @beltane:
    Cliftons! Meet the Cliftons!
    They already got to Joe ‘n’ Ber-nie!
    Cliftons! They’re the Cliftons
    It’s all sewn up for Hill-a-rie!

    Act-ually…
    just a lame troll from a guy
    but this…
    site can’t resist to take a bite…..

  79. 79.

    Redshift

    @srv:

    Dems will have wished he’d run as Crazy Guy Sanders will have run his course by this time next year. Clinton won’t be in jail, but Obama’s pardon isn’t going to pass the electorates smell test.

    I’m glad you’ve realized that your fantasy of any of the GOP clown car winning the election is unrealistic, and you’ve fallen back on the fantasy that Clinton must have done something illegal. At this rate, you may accept actual reality by Election Day next year, which would put you ahead of most of your GOP peers, who will likely be fuming about imaginary skewed polls and voter fraud for months afterward.

  80. 80.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    @Corner Stone: I turned it off but Pompeo was asking why there was no military response, wasn’t he? Perfect trolling opportunity for Dems to ask Gowdy when he’s gonna subpoena Leon Panetta for a ten hour, televised interrogation, because this isn’t about Hillary Clinton.

  82. 82.

    benw

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: If I were Clinton I’d be openly texting between answers by now:

    Hillz: “hey Bubba, can’t believe wut a numbnuttz Gowdy is”
    Big Dog: “u got this all teh way, sexy beeeyatch!”

  83. 83.

    Corner Stone

    @Jim, Foolish Literalist: He was. He’s now trying to get her to admit she had no control over her employees. Because she may or may not have issued a “counseling letter” into any employee’s file. IOW, trying to backdoor an admittance of wrongdoing from bottom up.

  85. 85.

    Rising Above

    Keeping her up…giving the MSM fodder to speculate on…get her tired….get her to make a mistake…throw it up against the wall, see what sticks…go on a nice, loooooong fishing expedition.

    I’m loving this. I hope it goes on for at least three more hours.

  86. 86.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    Sweet christ, these people have broken my snark-meter again? Is it real, or is it toob-snark?

    Christopher Hayes ‏@ chrislhayes 42m42 minutes ago
    Now @ Jim_Jordan is setting up yet another inquiry, with a “retired Federal Judge”. Wonder if he has anyone in mind?

  89. 89.

    Keith G

    @mclaren:

    Obama could have appointed all the people blocked by congress by using recess appointments

    Didn’t he try that? The Senate would not recess. The President sued over the issue of pro forma sessions and lost in court.

    IIRC.

    eta…Actually, I think that the Prez appointed anyway sayin’ the the Congress was in recess, but the GOP sued and won the case.

  90. 90.

    Corner Stone

    Uh oh. That did it. Hitlery is done for. Coughing after elebenty hours testifying? She is way too weak to lead!

  92. 92.

    Corner Stone

    Damn. HRC should probably think twice about chugging straight vodka out of that cup. This may go on for a bit still.

  94. 94.

    Rising Above

    @Corner Stone:

    And on and on and on and on….until we get our soundbyte.

    The purpose of this hearing was tree-fold:

    1) Brig up the #BlumenthalConnection

    2) Get Hillary tired enough that she makes mistakes

    3) Get a sound byte from said mistake that the Jeb campaign can repeat over and over and over and over (ex. “I took the initiative in creating the internet”, “I voted for it before I voted against it”. “card carrying member of the ACLU”)

    As a bonus, it would also help if Hillary gets so tired and frustrated that she comes across as a shrill, emotional bitch.

  96. 96.

    Jim, Foolish Literalist

    pfffft, another fuckin’ beltway liberal spins this for Hillary

    kathleenparker ‏@ kathleenparker 52m52 minutes ago
    Any claim that this isn’t political is absurd on its face. Congrats, Republicans.

  99. 99.

    WereBear

    Why can’t it be what it looked like? He was thinking it over, and he decided not to. I mean, when you are under this level of scrutiny, my deciding on new bathroom tile is a story.

  105. 105.

    Applejinx

    @lamh36: No no—it’s a DELorean.

    Dolorean resembles ‘dolorous’, and implies we’ve gone back to the future depressingly :D

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