Mark Halperin is out with a hot take this morning- Hills might be the next President.
If I were the Clinton campaign, I’d be very nervous and keep a close eye on what Kristol is saying about her chances.
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Elizabelle
Ratf*cking by the dick whisperer. Hmmmmm….
Just one more Canuck
It could be worse – it could be Bill Kristol saying this
Hawes
He’s only saying that because everyone else in DC is saying it.
catclub
Blind pigs and acorns?
dogwood
Reading this reaffirms my decision years ago to cut the cable and ignore the punditocracy.
catclub
@Hawes: The point being made at WAMonthly analysis of this is that most of the GOP
(at least, out loud) considers Hillary a no-hoper for being elected, so not everyone is saying that she is a sure thing,
in the same manner they considered Obama no-hope in 2012.
Roger Moore
That actually looks like a reasonably sensible analysis. If it has a problem, it’s that it’s too favorable to the Republicans, acting as if they actually have a chance to gin up a scandal that will derail her.
rikyrah
I just watched The Man in the High Castle on Amazon. Not too bad.
Ryan
@Just one more Canuck: Agreed. Wait for Kirstol before getting out of the race.
Ryan
@dogwood: I remember getting rid of cable a year ago. Losing Morning Joe alone has led to a much happier life.
MattF
It’s certainly unnerving. I actually don’t know that much about Halperin’s opinions… But it’s not a good sign.
rikyrah
UK Firms Agree to ‘Name Blind’ Hiring to Cut Discrimination
By THE ASSOCIATED PRESSOCT. 25, 2015, 8:03 P.M. E.D.T.
ONDON — Britain’s civil service and several major companies have agreed to recruit university graduates and apprentices without knowing the applicants’ names in an effort to eliminate bias against people from ethnic minorities.
Prime Minister David Cameron said last month it was “disgraceful” that people with “white-sounding” names were twice as likely as others to be shortlisted for jobs.
Cameron’s office said Monday that firms including bank HSBC, accountants Deloitte, broadcaster the BBC and the state-run National Health Service had signed up to the “name blind” recruitment plan, in which employers do not know applicants’ names when they are selecting them for interviews.
http://www.nytimes.com/aponline/2015/10/25/world/europe/ap-eu-britain-employment-equality.html?_r=0
Ryan
@Roger Moore: That’s what Boehner’s new committee to investigate Planned Parenthood is for. Not sure how it’s connected to Clinton, unless it’s meant to derail the debt limit discussion and wreck the economy via default.
HRA
Might is a mighty word.
Hoodie
That actually was fairly coherent as Halperin goes.
trollhattan
@Elizabelle:
Are you perhaps conflating Halperin with Dana Milbank?
Elizabelle
@Ryan: Your teeth might be whiter for being without M Joe.
Had him blathering a bit in the background today. Has a sad, because Jeb!?:( is such a terrible candidate, but a strong leader.
Another Holocene Human
@rikyrah: And this is the difference between a country where the racist faction is an easily-dismissed rump (UKIP or whatever viler option they’re flogging now) and a country where a hyuuuge in political terms bloc has brought two parties to their knees.
Elizabelle
@trollhattan: Yeah, probably. Can’t remember who else was in a dressing gown with Milbank.
But didn’t Halperin get slapped for calling Obama a dick or something on-air?
Cacti
Has Dick Morris endorsed her yet?
kindness
Yea well who are they gonna pick? Trump? Carson? Jebbie!?
Hillary has the juju right now.
Patricia Kayden
That’s okay. Halperin is just stating the obvious. Plus, a broke clock is right at least twice per day.
Patricia Kayden
@Elizabelle: Yes on Morning Joe, I believe.
Just Some Fuckhead
I’m pretty sure Bill Kristol was the source for the National Enquirer’s recent “Hillary is Going to Jail” lead story.
geg6
@Elizabelle:
Cillizza?
SatanicPanic
@Roger Moore:
Which is why when I read it this morning and saw who wrote it I thought “man, I need to see a doctor”
RSA
@kindness:
I know! Halperin writes,
The best match to this description is Rubio, I think. But Halperin’s acting as if there’s some hypothetical great Republican just waiting in the wings.
Another Holocene Human
This kind of shit that is our politics day after day is why our citizenry escape into their fandoms rather than live in reality, whether it’s sparkle ponies, or Florida Bear Hunts.
Thought I think the Bear Hunters have a problem with reality in general. If only it would conform to their cherished notions!
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@rikyrah:
There are a few US companies that are doing that on their own — I have heard that Pixar Animation Studios is trying it. Also in the entertainment world, the Nicholls Fellowships (run by the Academy) and the Austin Film Festival have been doing blind submissions for several years. I don’t know about examples outside of my industry, but there are pretty significant rumblings inside it.
Archon
The fundamental problem for the Republican party is that there are ALOT more McCain/Romney/Hillary Clinton voters then there are Obama/Obama/GOP rocks!/ voters.
Mike in NC
@catclub: Yup. Halperin’s recent article about JEBzzz faltering campaign used words like ‘staggering’ and ‘desperate’, which means even he could smell the blood in the water.
Roger Moore
@SatanicPanic:
The more I think about it, the more I think it’s a cautionary analysis intended for Republicans. He’s trying to warn them that they can’t just dismiss Hillary as doomed by their attacks; they’re going to have to deal with her directly, and she’s going to be in a strong position.
cokane
meh, he’s just saying what’s been the CW for months (if not years now)
and honestly, if we were doing president odds like how they do nfl superbowl odds, she’s clearly ahead of of everyone even if vegas wouldn’t put her above 2:1 yet
Another Holocene Human
RW patriarchial Christianity is MRA wearing a different hat, chapter ii:
http://www.rawstory.com/2015/10/christian-website-dont-look-at-your-wifes-face-during-sex-to-enjoy-it-even-when-she-resists/
Don’t look at your wife’s face during sex if her resistance might kill your boner.
japa21
@RSA: What is very telling, and sadly correct, is what is missing from the qualities needed to defeat Clinton. Halperin doesn’t mention policies that would be a positive for the voters.
There was a time policies actually mattered. It appears they now only matter to a small percentage of the voting population.
Applejinx
Hillary is going to win because she’s winning over the super PACs?
D:
Hil’s fine, but ye gods, this guy’s loony. How’s the super PACs working for Jeb? I think Hil deserves better friends like this, but she’s going to have to pick ’em. If this is the word on the street she likes to hear, she’s not learned enough.
Another Holocene Human
@Archon: Well, the notion of a double Obama going for GOP-leftovers in ’16 is pretty laughable, so other orientations besting it is trivial, almost tautological (unlikely thing is unlikely).
But please share your reasoning that someone would vote McCain, then double down and vote for MittBot, yet turn around and vote Hillz. Seems like if you voted for MittBot after everything Obama did, you’re in, because of cognitive dissonance if nothing else.
Kevin
@RSA: Is Rubio really the best match to this? I think he comes off terribly on TV. Awkward, sweaty, defensive. He has no charm at all.
But honestly, this was a rather sane and sober article by Halperin. Shocking really. I mean, the super delegate math and union support is undeniable, and he rightly brings these up as big for her in the primary.
daveNYC
@Ryan: Only thing I can think is that they’re hoping it’ll cause her to make a strong statement in support of PP, thus enrampaging the Republican base, or she’ll wishy-washy a statement and piss of the Democrats. That’s assuming they have a plan.
Punchy
I truly hope this article was from 2011, because everyone with any real sense of politics knew this back then. O-man had 2012 wrapped up, and the GOP was well into a intraparty shitstorm. Absent medical or family catastrophes, all those plugged in knew she’d run in 2016 and her experience, fame, and brand name would be 3 magnitudes higher than any old rich cracker the GOP would throw out there. Seriously, there’s a reason she’s currently -900 to win the Dem nommy and -150 to be elected prez.
Dork
@Another Holocene Human: WWJB(one)?
Ryan
@daveNYC: That’s probably it.
Omnes Omnibus
@Applejinx: Where is there any indication that this Halperin thing is the “word on the street she likes to hear?”
catclub
@RSA: Never mind that the Bush crowd might sabotage, in a fit of pique, or that Trump might run 3rd party in the his own fit of pique. Or that Ted Cruz forces his way onto the ballot. [ I wonder how many GOP voters would like a Rubio/Cruz awfully Hispanic sounding ticket?]
Another Holocene Human
@Applejinx: Halperin is not on the Team Hillz payroll this year, unless something has changed, so it sounds like she’s not buying this wonderful advice.
Another Holocene Human
@catclub: Same as the racist whites in Albequerque who voted Martinez in NM to kick the Democrats out of the governor’s mansion and screw the Indians as hard as possible as long as possible.
Iowa Old Lady
Ben Carson report: I was just at my local B&N, where Carson signed books on Saturday. He was late getting there because for some reason, his team thought they could get from Des Moines to Waterloo in 45 minute. There was a huge line waiting for him. The guy working at the café told me he did $1000 worth of business, which is enormous for our smallish B&N. Carson signed books in a mad rush for an hour and then went on to Dubuque.
Seanly
@rikyrah:
Yeah, I liked it also. Wondering if this Amazon series is the 4-parter that Ridley Scott was developing a couple of years ago or if it is going to be a longer running series.
Also, Amazon Video’s Bosch series was a good change up of the old familiar crime drama. I’m looking forward to the second season of that.
RE: Hillary, she’s had a very good 2 weeks. Looked poised, relax, friendly but feisty in the Democratic debate and then withstood 11 hours of Congressional witch hunt looking even more poised & feisty. I think Halperin is just jumping on the band wagon. However, there is a lot of time to go before election day 2016.
Elizabelle
@geg6: Yeah, probably. And “Cilizza” would be a good reason for having repressed that memory.
Another Holocene Human
@Dork: You know, I just don’t recall which verse it is that talks about the penis homes. I mean, there is the “sit down and shut up, wimmens” verse, there is the “you fantasized about adultery, that’s as bad as doing it, you creep” verse, there’s the “hell, naw, you can’t get divorced, what did you think this was, a dinner club?” verse. Help me out here.
Another Holocene Human
@Dork: You know, I just don’t recall which verse it is that talks about the p e n i s homes. I mean, there is the “sit down and shut up, wimmens” verse, there is the “you fantasized about adultery, that’s as bad as doing it, you creep” verse, there’s the “hell, naw, you can’t get divorced, what did you think this was, a dinner club?” verse. Help me out here.
Bobby Thomson
@japa21: no, policies have never mattered much at the presidential level. Phil Converse et al. found out decades ago that American voters do not have coherent ideologies and vote based on very squishy factors.
jl
@Applejinx: I read that HRC’s super PACs are not bringing in the amount of cash that was expected, mostly because the financial industry has decided that she might not be as trustworthy a flunky as they expected.
I kind of agree with Roger Moore.
It is scary to have one of the two major parties go insane and retain almost automatic support of around 40 percent of the voting population, since it makes things a little too unstable. Like an big asteroid hitting the earth, even a few tenths of a percent chance makes one uncomfortable. Hard to believe that one longs for the days of Romney, who stands over the current GOP field like a colossus.
I’ve been wondering what the GOP thinks it is up to. It seems to be doubling down on unpopular causes like going after Planned Parenthood based on an obviously bogus and dishonest smear campaign. The proposed budget deal will highlight promises to cut Social Security and Medicare to placate GOP deficit nutcases. Besides being deeply unpopular, it is nonsensical since Social Security and about half of Medicare cannot in either theory or practice contribute to the definite for several decades at least.
So, I dunno. HRC is such a dominant figure politically, Halperin fluffing her is like Halperin announcing that gravity will still operate next year. I am not going to run home and start nailing down stuff so it doesn’t float away after Jan 1 2016.
One theory I have been entertaining is that the GOP knows it is in trouble and their crazy and dangerous antics are a desperate gambit ti keep the base riled up to offset effects of increased turnout in Presidential election years. If that is the case, then the GOP already knows very well what Halperin is telling them, and we have found the goofy blunder in his analysis and we can rest easy.
japa21
@Another Holocene Human: I can think of one obvious reason some people voted against Obama but might turn around and vote for Hillary. Besides, all Archon was saying is that the number who would do that is higher than the number of Obama voters who would vote GOP.
And that is a problem for the GOP unless the number of Obama voters who decide not to vote at all is even greater.
Brachiator
@dogwood:
Probably a reasonable decision. This goes for a lot of written punditry as well. The recent Maureen Dowd piece on Hillary’s appearance at the Benghazi hearings was blisteringly stupid.
Another Holocene Human
@daveNYC: The problem is that PP splits their white, college educated base. The men go shouty. The women secretly split their ticket.
This has been evident for several years now. And it doesn’t take much peel off to hurt them in a close race. (The non college educated fundagelical crowd are already at peak outrage so their turnout will probably turn on how they perceive the GOP nominee. I mean you can’t get more Satan than Satan, and every single Dem nominee, funny story, has been Satan.)
trollhattan
@Seanly:
Technically there’s ample time for two October Surprises.
Jeffro
@RSA: yes – more than a few Republicans and a majority of independent/swing voters (all five of them left in this country) have to picture Prez Hillary more comfortably than Prez Marco
Another Holocene Human
@japa21: Unpack that. I think that’s lazy. Oh, a white will bring Rs back to the D side. Since when? All D pols are n-lovers so wth is the difference? The only people it would have mattered to have gone GOP in an outrage and ain’t comin’ back save some sort of personal life event that makes them realize what a butthead they were being.
Another Holocene Human
@Jeffro: If you were waiting for the grownups to return to the GOP …
you’re gonna keep waiting
jl
@Archon: Especially when the GOP seems maniacally focused on advertising its most extreme reactionary wish list, with most items on it deeply offensive, unpopular or frightening to moderate voters.
At this rate hot sure how the GOP can swing to the middle for the general, when they have fallen off an extreme and very tall right wing cliff in the primaries.
Gowdy is going to push on the the HRC persecution (and he wiff waffling on last weeks mess is not a promising sign for him). And one of Boehner’s parting gifts tot he GOP is some idiotic committee to persecute the very popular Planned Parenthood, based on transparent garbage.
Jeffro
@Another Holocene Human: I only said ” more than a few”…then again perhaps I should’ve just said a few
Steve in the ATL
I see things like this a lot on BJ and it confuses me. I have cable, which includes both morning joe and Fox News. I, however, do not watch them. Why do people here subject themselves to that?
jl
i think turnout is an important factor in US elections that is often neglected.
A very crummy jobs recovery hurt the Democrats during Obama’s administration during midterms, leading the mess we have now. Some of that might be Obama’s fault for staying with Washing Consensus macroeconomic and financial policy for too long, but whether the recovery could have been improved fast enough with better policy to have helped is really speculative.
But now we have HRC who will certainly increase turnout among women, and if Sanders is successful in building a reliable grass roots organization he can keep together for the general, the GOP might be freaking out over turnout and trying to counter that the best way the can. But their Hunger Games primary situation does not give GOPers incentive to build solid GOTV ground games, and their crazy base requires them to perform every more intricate gymnastics to keep their base turning out while not scaring the crap out of moderate Presidential year voters. I hope the way I am thinking is more or less correct, since it helps me sleet at night when thinking about next year’s election.
HinTN
@Steve in the ATL: They just can’t look away.
pamelabrown53
@RSA:
So. Basically Halperin believes the balding, cherubic Rubio will kick her ass because “young”? Methinks it’s a conflation and wishful thinking that Rubio will be their Obama.
pamelabrown53
@Iowa Old Lady:
May the force be with you. I hold you in the light. Living amongst evangelical zealots can’t be easy.
Amir Khalid
Don’t panic. Halperin is merely stating the obvious for once, rather than doing his usual “insider’s” punditry. I doubt Hillary is going to decide, on the basis of one column of his, that the nomination and the election are already won and she can now go to sleep.
scav
I suddenly suppose it could be a cheap and easy vanity project for Iowa voters to attempt to demonstrate their “continued importance” in the “choice of a president” by playing about with hitherto relatively unknown candidates and giving them cheap bumps in the polls or by buying a book or two. And it’s generally more chic to grab the next pet rock rather than leaping on the bandwagon of the current faddish pebble. “Look how Influential as a state we are!” “Admire our independence of mind!” And O! wouldn’t the media love to polish and pontificate from and prognosticate based on whatever random variation that appears in the chicken entrails left littered about during the frantic trafficking back and forth across the state. So there’s the partner in fantasy. Does Iowa really represent anything larger than, well, Iowa, any more?
Brachiator
@Seanly:
@rikyrah:
Scott’s name appears in the credits as one of the producers or executives for the series.
It is good stuff, though even more dystopian than the average show in this genre.
dmsilev
@Brachiator:
There. Now you have a fully re-usable sentence.
TG Chicago
HRC has been the clear favorite to be president ever since she announced she was running. Heck, even before that.
trollhattan
@pamelabrown53:
Li’l Marco will do to Hillary what dreamy wonk Paul Ryan did to Joe Biden. Victory is inevitable!
Amazing to me that after all these years they still believe their handcrafted narratives. What would be the Republican version of Etsy?
jl
@pamelabrown53: I heard a news report on national poll that plurality of GOPers think only four are likely to be GOP nominee: Trump, Carson, Jeb? and Rubio.
If there is a hard ceiling on GOP primary voters and caucuers who will tolerate a crazy person, then Trump and Carson are out. So I guess Rubio is likely and poor Jeb? still has a chance if he can hang on and not have a mental breakdown in public.
Keith G
@Amir Khalid: But then what would there be left to blog about?
beltane
@scav: I don’t know. Iowa Republicans have a pretty decent track record of choosing the candidate who will not win the nomination. They are the Bill Kristol of voters.
trollhattan
@TG Chicago:
Yup. They never stopped scheming against her after Obama snagged the ’08 nom. On one hand that was the smart play since she remained a solid #2 and on the other hand, even if she was knocked to the end of the Democratic line they’d have kept going because of their pathological Clinton hatred.
Iowa Old Lady
@pamelabrown53: Mostly they’re very polite and do not discuss politics or religion. When I was talking to the café guy today, a woman older than me was there gushing about she wanted to be there Saturday but couldn’t. I smiled pleasantly and pretended she wasn’t crazy.
@scav:
I’m not sure it ever did.
germy shoemangler
@pamelabrown53:
they thought the same thing about Rick Lazio
trollhattan
@jl:
How many times did Bar crack John’s pate with her thimble at the family retreat? Oh to be the rented bartender at that thing….
Brachiator
@scav:
Good question. But here’s the thing:
Pundits and others who earlier dealt with Carson with condescension and Trump with derision are now scared shitless because these two continue to lead almost all the opinion polls.
Neither Carson nor Trump are fools or innocents. With respect to abortion, for example, Carson is saying what evangelicals and hard core conservatives have been believing for years. Oh yeah, and the Catholic Church. And obviously, reproductive choice is endangered in many red states.
The GOP conservative base is deeply unhappy with their mainstream politicians. To this end, their love for Carson and Trump seeks to push the mainstream candidates to the right. Places like Iowa are sending a message to the Republicans, as are Republicans in other states. The funny thing is, the GOP grandees cannot contain, channel or downplay this revolt. And look how hapless Jeb! has been looking recently, and how even he has been forced to declare his love and support of evangelicals in a weird attempt to stay relevant.
It is still unlikely, but not impossible, that either Carson or Trump could end up the nominee. It depends on the national mood. By comparison, I don’t know that any seasoned journalist or political commentator predicted the recent outcome of the elections in Guatemala, where a comedian has been elected president.
Sound familiar?
Anoniminous
@jl:
Don’t count Trump out. GOP front-loaded their primaries to avoid another 2014 drag-out nominating process and the result is a candidate getting 20% of the vote scoops the lot as long as nobody else gets above 20%. In theory, Trump could win the GOP nomination and never get above his current support of 30%. As long as he stays above 20% and the rest of the shit pile stays below 20% he’ll scoop up enough delegates.
trollhattan
@Iowa Old Lady:
“We’re first in being first!”
Maybe they would lose interest of South Dakota would allow them to move the Corn Palace across the border.
Patrick
Halperin lost any credibility whatsoever when he called the President of the United States a d***.
trollhattan
@Anoniminous:
Gotta admit, Trump’s gig is pretty sweet. Show up at rallies and on the teevee machine and yell at your opponents. This isn’t rocket science and he’s spent a lifetime polishing his yelling skills. I encourage more yelling at Carson, at the moment.
geg6
@Steve in the ATL:
I wonder about that, too. I mean, seriously, you can’t change the channel? You have 500 channels and can’t find anything more edifying than cable news? Huh. I don’t seem to have that problem.
I honestly think that, for so many who see fit to constantly inject how they don’t watch tv into conversations, it’s totally a way of staking out the morally superior high ground for liberals (conservatives do that with religion). And, yes, I know people who really don’t watch tv or who don’t have the money to pay for 500 channels and none of them feel the need to tell everyone about it. But most people like how it makes them sound in their own heads. There is nothing at all wrong with tv and, arguably, it’s been the highest value and highest quality entertainment in America the last few years. American sports are a nightmare of violence, misogyny and bad behavior (and why, yes, I watch them anyway) and the American film industry is at about the lowest possible low ever in regard to quality and value for your dollar.
beltane
@Brachiator: A comedian with eccentric ideas running on an anti-corruption platform sounds a lot like Beppe Grillo in Italy.
jl
Another way to look at it, what Halperin is doing is saying HRC is front runner and explaining why GOP has a strategy to win.
Even if his record holds, it means ‘Hello President Sanders’ in Januray 2017.
So, no reason for people to worry about Halperin writing this.
Anoniminous
@trollhattan:
Trumpster is the perfect candidate for the GOP. A loud mouth, self-entitled, know-nothing shouting bigotry, bile, and resentment against THOSE PEOPLE! He’s doing well, at the moment, in the early states and the two big SuperTuesday states of Texas and Florida.
Amir Khalid
@trollhattan:
On the other hand, Trump’s one and only skill in politics is taunting his opponents. At that one thing, he’s an absolute genius. That it’s all he has needed to get this far says a lot about their feebleness, but nothing about his chances against Hillary, who as we saw last week is made of sterner stuff. Indeed, I wouldn’t bet on Trump against Bernie either.
Frankensteinbeck
@Mnemosyne (iPhone):
That is going to cause a hellstorm in Hollywood when at least as many women as men qualify. Misogyny is much bigger than racism in the entertainment industry, and racism is pretty damn solid. They won’t know what to do. It probably hasn’t occurred to them that it will happen.
@jl:
Why does anybody believe this? Obama pushed for jobs bills and greater spending in every aspect of government. The GOP went scorched earth to destroy the economy, with their number one priority being to torpedo anything, anything, that might spend more money as stimulus. It’s not like what they did is obscure or debatable. Obama was never into austerity, and said so.
Bobby Thomson
@geg6: cat videos offer much more value for the dollar.
Doug R
@Steve in the ATL: No kidding. I got msnbc years ago for Olbermann, watched for many years. I lost it in one of my keep/drop hbo cycles around the time Maddow started her snowden fan club and I don’t really miss it.
pamelabrown53
@jl:
Hah! About the “mental breakdown in public”! Actually not totally beyond the realm of possibility. My point is that Rubio’s youthfulness doesn’t make him the next Obama.
Here’s where I think the MSM’s both sides mentality totally misses the mark. Are rock stars and artists flocking to Rubio to offer their talents?
This is just a scratch on how Rubio might not fare so well.
Brachiator
@beltane:
But can you imagine Grillo actually being elected or becoming prime minister?
Or, say, Russel Brand being elected to the British Parliament?
Bobby Thomson
@Frankensteinbeck: bullshit. He bought into the “family has to tighten its budget” rhetoric, and wanted to keep the total price tag low for psychological reasons rather than what made sense. Better than the Republicans and at least as good as what Bill Clinton would have offered, but what we needed was Justin Trudeau. One can fairly argue Obama couldn’t have gotten much more, but he started the bidding below a reasonable compromise. Susan Collins’ cuts to local governments damaged the economy severely.
feebog
I readily admit that I thought Trump would be on the downhill slide by now. Maybe the last two Iowa polls showing Carson leading are the start. But it is getting clearer by the day that there is a significant chunk of the Republican electorate that is fed up with business as usual politician/candidates who make empty promises and deliver nothing. Add to that the slash and burn types and you suddenly have something close to a majority making the decisions. Plus, the really rabid red states like Arizona, Alabama and Georgia get additional delegates by virtue of simply being red; its’ not hard to imagine an outsider grabbing the nomination. The guy I am afraid of is Cruz. He is lying in the weeds and waiting for Trump and Carson to slide. Cruz is truly creepy because he is a true believer, one who could damage this country beyond redemption if he ever became President.
jl
@Amir Khalid: Also important to remember that while GOP is running a so-awful-it’s-good reality shit show and making money for corporate media grifters of all descriptions, HRC and Sanders are running actual political campaigns, including building out ground GOTV and outreach organizations as fast as they can. There will a big payoff to Democrats in the general.
I don’t think poll numbers are all that reliable this early. They give a general sense of what and who is popular with public in a general sense, but not much more than that.
Look at how quickly HRC pulled out of her ‘campaign in disarray’ (TM and copyright) death spiral as soon as she got media attention that she had some control over, rather than smear jobs and lazy horse race BS.
Jeb? might be able to do the same thing if hangs in long enough, the GOP decides it wants a sane candidate and he had any political talent for national politics at all. Probably needs all three, and second may not pan out, and third is very unlikely at this point, though.
Matt McIrvin
@Another Holocene Human: I think there were definitely Democratic-leaning people in 2008 who would have voted for Hillary Clinton, but not for a black man. You saw them in primary polling data roughly in Greater Appalachia, extending through Tennessee and Arkansas into Oklahoma. I recall Nate Silver did a neat trick of correlating them with people who self-identified as “American” ethnicity on the previous census.
But, as you say, given that the party did nominate Obama and Clinton served in his administration, this is probably not a reversible process. Not for many of them, at least.
trollhattan
@Amir Khalid:
To clarify, I don’t think Trump is going to get the nom, but rather will continue to ruin others’ chances. Hillary will beat whomever like a rented mule.
Amir Khalid
@Brachiator:
The same Russell Brand who was telling people not to bother voting? I can’t even imagine him standing for Parliament.
(Language note: In America, you run for Congress. In Britain, you stand for Parliament.)
jl
@Frankensteinbeck: What you say is true, but it ignores that point I was making that many voters do respond to changes in economic conditions, and economic developments that exceed or disappoint expectations, by giving credit or blaming the president, without thinking to much about why those economic conditions exist, or looking too carefully about who should get credit or is to blame
I think that is a well known electoral fact that is recognized by both Dems and GOP, and why their supporters’ level of enthusiasm for upcoming election is something that they both worry about.
Bobby Thomson
@Another Holocene Human: a small group, to be sure, but undoubtedly larger than double Obama voters suddenly voting for a wall.
Iowa Old Lady
The Republicans’ problem (well, one of them) is that they have so many people running that it makes it hard to consolidate support for anyone. If I were Priebus, I’d be trying to figure out how to get people to drop out.
JMG
Rest assured that although the two groups are not identical, the number of white men who won’t vote for Clinton because she’s a woman will be close to if not more than the number who wouldn’t vote for Obama because he’s African American.
Cervantes
@Another Holocene Human:
Inconceivable to you? Or does it just seem unlikely?
The Other Bob
H. Clinton is perfectly capable of snatching defeat from the jaws of victory. Her inconsistency scares the shit out of me and makes me worry she could throw a winnable election to a fascist like Trump.
Peale
@Matt McIrvin: I don’t know. It always seems to work one way. Fed Up Dems Run to the Republicans and Don’t Come Back. It’s such a standard point. The Sandernistas like to point to polls that say that 14% of Democrats won’t vote for Hillary not matter what if she is the nominee. That number seems remarkably low for Democrats. But still. Every election Democrats bleed voters and no one ever comes back? I guess the way to guarantee the destruction of the party is to have elections with Democrats on the ticket. If we want to guarantee that Republicans are defeated, we should stop trying to run against them.
SatanicPanic
@scav:
recent choices Santorum and Huckabee suggest no
Frankensteinbeck
@Bobby Thomson:
Bullshit in return. There was *no* way a bigger stimulus was getting through congress. It was exactly as big as the Blue Dogs could be talked into. There are very few cases in real life where asking for way more than you want gets you a better result. Usually it just pisses off the other person and they give you nothing. That is certainly the case in congress. And no, Obama never, ever bought into the ‘tighten your belt’ rhetoric. Did you watch his deficit speech? I did. It was thirty seconds of ‘we need to fix the deficit’ and all the rest was ‘by increasing taxes on the rich and cutting military spending’, with a lengthy section on how the one thing we could not afford to do was cut investments in infrastructure, helping the poor, research, education, and so on. He specifically called out Simpson and Bowles as wrong about everything. Obama never, ever was into austerity.
jl
@pamelabrown53:
” My point is that Rubio’s youthfulness doesn’t make him the next Obama. ”
I agree. Something that makes sense, is vigorous and assertive and confident has to come out of his mouth as well. Also policy proposals that look promising to younger voters.
Both HRC and Sanders are younger than Rubio in all of those respects.
Younger voters also like authenticity. I think even HRC can beat Jeb? and Rubio on authenticity.
raven
What I don’t get is who goes a shit if people cut or don’t cut, watch or don’t watch or any of that shit?
jl
@Frankensteinbeck: I think you are missing the point on economics. And as for white voters, I agree with you about most bigoted white voters. But the election will in great part depend on what the marginal 3 or 4 percent decide to do. I think there are that many white bigots (perhaps subconsciously bigoted) who might change their votes.
Frankensteinbeck
@jl:
I don’t, but I don’t think what you’re saying is unreasonable, either.
Amir Khalid
@The Other Bob:
The Donald, bless his heart, is himself no paragon of consistency.
ETA: And come to that, neither is any of the other Republican candidates.
Gimlet
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/entry/white-house-congress-close-in-on-budget-deal_562e65dde4b00aa54a4a8447
WASHINGTON — The White House and congressional leaders appear close to finalizing a critical budget deal that would increase domestic spending moderately over the next two years and raise the nation’s debt ceiling in the nick of time.
A Democratic source suggested cuts to Medicare and Social Security disability benefits would not be large, or across the board. They would involve lengthening the appeals process when benefits are denied, and starting some sort of demonstration project to offset disability payments when beneficiaries earn other wages. Republicans have been complaining for years about the growth of disability benefits, and alleging rampant fraud in the programs (although advocates say such fraud is rare).
The source confirmed that the emerging deal would be for two years and achieve sequester relief for defense and non-defense programs.
Such a package would also address the Medicare Part B issue, and protect millions of seniors from significant increases to their premiums and deductibles, the source said.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: Oh, fed up Republicans go to the Democrats too. But it’s not the same groups of people.
I think the defectors in the other direction in recent years have been more-educated centrist Republicans who come to some kind of “those guys are crazy” realization. Which I suppose doesn’t bode well for economic populism in the short term, because they’re not populist-minded types.
SatanicPanic
@Amir Khalid: lol that’s putting it mildly
Matt McIrvin
@Gimlet: Oh, goody, cat-food dinners for people with chronic pain!
I kind of don’t like the sound of the White House paying any Danegeld at all here. They’re going to demand more next time. The adminstration may figure they don’t have a choice.
Roger Moore
@JMG:
But there are probably at least some white women who would never vote for Obama because he’s black but will be receptive to voting for Hillary because she’s a woman. In contrast, there are relatively few black men who voted for Obama because he’s black but would vote for the Republican over Hillary because she’s a woman.
catclub
@JMG:The group of white men you defined is about a wash. Isn’t of greater interest the number of white women who were unwilling to vote for Obama, but may well be willing to vote for Clinton? A win for Clinton, I think.
The number of black voters who voted for Obama but will not for Clinton is also of lively interest. I have very little sense of that group (I hope it is small).
ETA: beaten by Roger Moore by thiiiiis much.
jl
@Frankensteinbeck: Fair enough. We’ll see what happens after Nov 2016.
Gimlet
@Gimlet:
I thought Medicare and SS were independently funded and thus would not impact the budget.
Mandalay
@Steve in the ATL:
Yes, that has confused me as well. And also folks who claim that they watched FoxNews or listened to Rush Limbaugh “accidentally”.
It’s just an odd phenomenon.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@Frankensteinbeck:
It has already happened at CalArts in the animation program, which has also switched to blind admissions. Almost three-quarters of the new admissions were women.
Though animation is probably already a little more gender equitable than live action anyway.
jl
@Gimlet: The budget cutting provisions are mostly symbolic BS involving programs that have no budget impact in short or medium run. So, I suppose Boehner and WH are betting that the Freedom Caucus are dumb as rocks, or cynical yahoos who need some nonsensical garbage to wave in front of their crazy base (or both, as a commenter will surely remind us)
Roger Moore
@jl:
I think it’s going to be less about convincing on-the-fence voters and more about turnout. That has been the tendency in the past several elections: when turnout is high, Democrats win; when it’s low, Republicans win.
Matt McIrvin
@Peale: …Also, there are all the ethnic minorities who leaned Republican in 2000 and earlier, but were eventually driven Democratic by the stench of egregious bigotry post-2001. It sounds as if that’s happened with Asian-Americans bigtime, Arab-Americans, currently happening with younger Cuban-Americans, etc.
The long-term happy story for the Democrats is changing ethnic demographics. Around here if you say that you get accused of complacency, and it’s true, it’s not a magic thing. But the Republicans’ current White Party strategy is not sustainable in Presidential elections.
jl
@Gimlet: Yes, the Social Security part of the proposed deal is nonsense. Some of Medicare is on budget so that will depend on the details.
Brachiator
@Amir Khalid:
And yet wrote a book, Revolution, that tried to spell out some of his thoughts.
The book got a snide dismissal in the Guardian and elsewhere, but in interviews Brand continues to confound those who want to see him merely as the punchline to a bad joke. Who knows what might happen if potential voters took him more seriously, and he decided that there was some value to being more politically engaged.
Roger Moore
@Gimlet:
It’s all about image, not reality.
catclub
@Archon:
The ones I worry about are Obama/Obama/’meh, why bother voting, no crisis’ voters.
Omnes Omnibus
@Peale:How many people associated with this blog are former Republicans?
Brachiator
@Gimlet:
This is interesting. Are they trying to get a deal done before there is a new speaker in the House?
There is also some (as usual) last minute tax law to be decided on. Again, an outline of a deal had been laid out earlier in the year, but the GOP wanted to play games and stall.
rikyrah
@catclub:
Depending on White women is a fool’s errand…but believe in them if you must.
If it were up to White Women, we’d have President Romney, Governor Cucchinelli and we presently have Governor Abbott.
The female gender gap is caused by NON-White women.
pamelabrown53
@jl:
Well, I think Bernie has the authenticity vote sewed up…especially with the youth group.
pamelabrown53
@rikyrah:
So right!
Iowa Old Lady
@rikyrah: How does the split among white women wash out if you control for age? That is, I assume older white women are more likely to vote R, but are they less likely than older white men?
Princess
@Bobby Thomson: Oh for goodness sake. All Justin Trudeau is promising is what Obama wanted to do but was blocked in Congress about over and over again. No more. Who do you think Justin copied his idea from?
schrodinger's cat
@geg6: I am one of those people who does not have cable. No cable companies serve the town where I live right now. I really missed not having it initially but don’t any longer.
Roger Moore
@rikyrah:
That’s not quite fair. Yes, white women still lean Republican, but they lean less in that direction than white men. That’s true across all racial/ethnic groups; even among blacks, women are more strongly Democratic than men.
Applejinx
@Amir Khalid: Yeah, whatever else we know, it’s very obvious Trump is weak against Bernie. Trump’s best possible bet is against Hillary and he still wouldn’t win. No, let me correct that: Trump’s best bet would be against Al Gore. We ain’t running him.
Trump may well take the Republican nomination unless he decides he doesn’t want to play anymore.
If we run against Carson I’m honestly not sure which would be better, Hillary or Bernie. I think Bernie would make him look like an absolute bozo, where Hillary would sort of be condescending and gentle but firm with his bozosity and come down like a ton of bricks on his antiwoman issues.
That might mean that Bernie would clobber Carson but Hil would obliterate him? What an ideal candidate to run a Woman Power campaign against. Trump’s a pig but proud of it. Carson doesn’t believe he’s doing anything wrong, but he’s totally out to lunch.
ruemara
@rikyrah: hmm. Interesting, wonder if this could work here.
meepers
@Princess: And you think this is a bad thing, why?
catclub
@rikyrah:
I am suggesting that racist white women who did not vote for Obama are more likely to vote for Hillary. Are you suggesting that actually they are less likely to vote for Hillary?
Applejinx
As far as authenticity, that’s not really a Hillary problem either. The concern with her is simply whether she’ll listen to her promises and work for the people, not Wall St. who’ve predictably gone all in with her (she was [b]literally their Senator[/b] from 2001 to 2009, what the hell do you expect her to do? It was her JOB to represent Wall St. along with the rest of New York while she was their Senator)
I’ve been saying all along that if she’s really smart she’ll see the Sanders/Warren momentum and switch sides. There’s no reason she can’t throw Wall St. under the bus as President. They’re outnumbered and off base and richly (hah) deserve it, and her legacy will be terrible if she doesn’t leash ’em.
Not only that, if she won and went with thoroughly Sanders/Mark Blyth type policies, like some Lady FDR, the US economy would predictably surge because that’s what deficit spending on infrastructure in a recession DOES and the Wall Streeters would end up doing well provided they weren’t short-selling the US. Which they’re happy to do, of course.
Hillary authenticity is shown in the way she telegraphed her feelings testifying before the Benghazi committee. She’s in a position where she can be authentic and populist provided she believes what’s happening. Both she and Bill will bend with the prevailing winds, and they’re not at all the same as they were during Bill’s Presidency. They both want the bestest legacy ever, which doesn’t mean policies as much as it means identifying the electorate’s whims and blindly pursuing them.
In this light, I’m glad the Bernie people walked out during that dinner. It sends a message to watch the hell out and not take ’em for granted, and this is the only message politicians of this intensity understand. (I’m not saying quality, that depends on whether you’re telling them to do bad things as in the 80s. I’m saying intensity. The Clintons are very pure, very high intensity politicians and will go down in history as the most charismatic, zeitgeist-representing people you ever saw, but they ain’t strategists or ideologues)
Omnes Omnibus
@Applejinx:
Source?
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@catclub:
They may be slightly more likely to vote for Hillary than they were for Obama, but for the most part, white women vote for Republicans.
“The most part” is that there are some states where Obama won the white vote outright in 2012 (according to the NYT exit polls, they were Massachusetts, Connecticut, New Hampshire, and Iowa) and one where he tied (New York). So the “white women voters” thing has a regional dimension as well. In all of the above states, Obama got close to or more than 60 percent of women’s votes, which obviously means that he got a majority of white women’s votes in those states since a majority of whites of both genders voted for him.
Mnemosyne (iPhone)
@catclub:
Shorter me: it would be a nice bonus if white women who usually vote Republican cross over to vote for Hillary, but I wouldn’t stake an election on it.
J R in WV
@Gimlet:
Regarding disability fraud, we used to have a state-government run workers’ compensation program, now privatized. Companies would spend anything on lawyers trying to keep injured workers from receiving benefits. One major corporate law firm required its clients to litigate every workers’ compensation claim! Imagine the $$$ !!!
They went into court against an injured coal miner with an investigator’s video of the injured employee allegedly carrying a concrete lawn fountain – the plaintiff’s lawyer had the lawn ornament in court, he picked it up with one hand, as it was plastic and weighed less than 20 pounds. Oops.
Fraud in disability exists, but mostly in the minds of people who don’t believe in disability for anyone, ever.
Bitter Scribe
Could it possibly be that Hillary Clinton is simply better (saner, smarter, more grounded) than any of the Republican candidates, and that the country at large will see that?
Amir Khalid
@Applejinx:
I disagree with you about the relative strength of Hillary and Bernie as candidates.